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TRANSCRIPT
Trends in Domestic Leisure Tourism
The Next Decade
Today’s objectives
Introduction
• To examine a series of trends that will be influential in
determining the future of domestic leisure tourism
• To discuss the implications of these trends for destination
organisations
• To understand how we can support your organisation in
understanding and planning for these trends
Today’s agenda
1. Two presentations, each covering two groups of trends
• Demographics / Economics & the Downturn
• Information & Technology / Consumer Trends
2. After each presentation – a discussion about the relevance and implications for DMOs (in groups)
3. A discussion about if/how you could use this information in your own destination – and how we can support you
Introduction
Demographic Trends
‘Squeezed Middle’ Generation
65-79s +11.2%
80+ +19.2%
Under 18s +10%
18-34s +1.2%
35-49s -3.4%
50-64s +10.5%
More younger people
More older people
Fewer ‘squeezed middle’
Source: ONS Population prospects
Demographic Changes 2013-2020
The Vertical Family
Rising life expectancy has coincided with an historically low fertility rate – which
has had a profound impact on family structure
This has particular implications for accommodation, as families are likely to go
away with more adults (including grandparents) and fewer children
Untraditional Families
Higher levels of divorce and
remarriage, an increase in the
age of childbirth and greater
social liberalism are all creating
new types of families – far
removed from the traditional
image of the Nuclear Family.
Across the Tourism sector,
businesses need to be agile to
sharply varying expectations,
needs and demands caused by a
huge array of different family
types and shapes
Changing Ethnic Profile
The ethnic profile of the UK is
changing rapidly – the last census
revealed that over 13% of the
population were born outside the
UK
Immigrants’ tourism behaviour
traditionally differs to others, often
as consequence of economic and
labour market conditions
Source: UK Census, 2011
Economic Trends
The downturn is almost over
Economic recovery
Q4 2014
Source: ONS/Trajectory
The ‘lost decade’ spurs a range of consumer reactions
Economic Stagnation
Few changes (47%)
Small adjustments to existing lifestyle
only
Shopping around (19%)
Saving money, collecting loyalty
points, comparing prices
Cutting back (13%)
As shopping around + No
annual holiday, socialising at
home, second hand clothing
Drawing down (11%)
Stopping paying into pension,
using savings to pay bills
All strategies (10%)
Many across groups + getting into debt to pay
essentials
... wholesale lifestyle changes
Minor changes to shopping habits...
Source: Which?/Trajectory Consumer 2012 Report
Discretionary Thrift
• Consumers are looking to cut back
across all areas of spending – even
when they don’t strictly need to
• Consumers are employing a range of
money saving strategies – from
vouchers to comparing prices
• The broader benefits associated with
saving money – including the feeling of
‘getting something back’ mean that as
long as it remains convenient,
consumers will continue to choose to
save money into recovery
Source: Trajectory Global Foresight 2011-13
Mercurial Consumption
Price Consciousness creates agile shoppers
Over the course of the downturn, consumers have become less loyal to brands and
more likely to shop around – choosing on price rather than brand affinity
44% say buying trusted
brands is important to
them
59% say getting the
cheapest price is
important to them
Source: Trajectory Global Foresight 2013
Value Hunters
As recessionary pressures have forced many to cut back on their spending, consumers are increasingly eager to
employ money saving strategies
One of the most common is using coupons, which since the start of the
downturn have lost their stigma – now, just 4% of consumers say using a
supermarket voucher is embarrassing
More broadly, services such as Groupon or VoucherCodes (and many others) demonstrate the active desire to find
bargains and save money
Source: Trajectory Global Foresight 2011-13
What does this mean for Holidays?
Economic Trends
42% Say they are
spending less
on holidays
Better off consumers are increasing their domestic spend – but poorer consumers are
just cutting back altogether
Source: GBTS / VisitEngland Staycation Research
2006 vs
2013 (est)
+30%
+16%
+8%
-20%
Implications and Summary
• Families are changing in size, shape and composition, and no longer fit into an
easy Nuclear Family model
• Population growth is driven by both a baby boom and an ageing society
• But the ‘squeezed middle’ generation will be time poor – but looking to indulge themselves at every opportunity with short breaks and treats
• Economic recovery on the horizon, but consumers yet to feel benefit
• There is no one experience of the downturn, but a number of common money
saving strategies
• Holidays are not immune to this cost cutting – although consumers are switching to domestic tourism
Demographic & Economic Trends
Group exercise
• What are the implications of these demographic and economic trends for the next decade?
• How should destination organisations respond now and in the longer term?
• What should they START doing, STOP doing and CONTINUE doing?
Economics and Demographics
Information & Technology Trends
Internet Access & Usage
Practical activities – done by all Social activities – weighted towards under
35s
With internet penetration in the UK approaching 100% of consumers, the key signifier is in how different people use the internet, rather than who
One of the key differentiators is age – younger people (perhaps ‘digital natives’ ) are more likely to ‘live’ online, whereas older consumers see it as more of a practical tool
Source: Trajectory Global Foresight 2011-13
M&T Commerce
One implication of rising mobile and tablet usage is the blurring line between
portable use and home use
Tablets and smartphones are ostensibly portable devices – but are often as
powerful as traditional desktop computers
Their range of uses has wide-ranging implications for the tourism industry –
from booking online to contactless payments
More portable devices (and the volume of activity on them) increase the likelihood of people expecting internet access while
on holiday
Source: Trajectory Global Foresight
Social Media
63% of people in England use social networking sites – including 84% of 18-34s
The rapid spread of information online – often through social media – can have huge implications for the tourism sector
Another implication of rising social media use is (often public) customer interaction
Source: Trajectory Global Foresight
Data and Privacy
29% Of internet users say that
concerns over privacy or
security limit the way they
use the internet
33% Of internet users say slow
connection speeds limit
the way they use the
internet
Concerns about the security of their personal information is one of the biggest barriers
to increased internet use for consumers in England.
But, where consumer data is used to personalise and enhance the user experience,
consumers appreciate the convenience
Source: Trajectory Global Foresight 2013
FOMO (Fear of missing out)
FOMO
The ease with which people can share their leisure activities with family or friends increases our
exposure to different experiences
People will become increasingly reluctant to miss out – and they
won’t want their peers to be having more fun than they are
This fits in with a longer term tendency of broadening leisure
portfolios
Last Minute
People don’t want to miss out or compromise on their leisure time, but at the same time are keen to
save money at every opportunity
Their ability to do this is facilitated by technology, which allows them to research, compare and book
holidays at the last minute
Over half of all domestic breaks in 2012-13 were booked and taken in either the same or the
following month
Source: GBTS
Implications and Summary
Information and Technology Trends
• Wider technology use is changing the way people organise and book holidays – and what they expect while on holiday
• Over the next 5-10 years, mobile and tablet computing will becoming increasingly central – and often the main channel for internet use
• Social media represents both a huge opportunity and a potential challenge for venues and destinations
• Increasing, immediate communication will heighten the fear of missing out, and catalyse desire for broader leisure portfolios and new experiences
• ...but will alienate others, who will crave digital downtime as they look to switch off
• Need to spend more time in understanding the use of Apps in the leisure and tourism sector
• Being a TRUSTED source of information is key for those seeking to offer advice on user experiences
Consumer Trends
While total spending fell, spending on recreation and culture continued to rise
Play Society
Source: ONS, Consumer Spending 2012
Demand for Control and the Demand for Simplicity
38% Say they feel a high
degree of freedom of
choice and control
53% Say they feel under time
pressure in their day to
day lives
Source: Trajectory Global Foresight
Consumer choice has proliferated over the past few decades – leading to
increased complexity
This is particularly true for leisure activities – generally, people have more free time, but are also trying to cram more in – leading to increased time
pressure
The exponential increase in ‘information’ – driven by tech usage – is increasing complexity, as is the desire to save
money and budget
Consumers look for products or services that simplify this complexity and save
time
Individualocracy
Consumers increasingly desire more control over their experiences – one facet of this is the desire to personalise and customise them
As leisure portfolios broaden and people try new things, the desire to ‘individualise’ them remains – from insider tips about
destinations to less common destinations
Cultural Capital
Traditional forms of conspicuous consumption – owning to impress – have fallen in favour since the onset of the downturn - but people still look to
define themselves through their consumer behaviour
Wealth Health
Thoughtless
Spendthrifts
‘In the know’
Flair
Care
Earn
Discern
Decline of Deference
Consumers are less deferential to traditional sources of information – such as government or national institutions – and increasingly use new sources
Some are mainstream – such as TripAdvisor, but others cater to specific requirements, such as Field Trip or Gravy, and rely on crowdsourced
information or recommendations
CSR: From Green to Clean
Being ‘green’ is less important to consumers as the downturn has resulted in people feeling unable to afford wider concerns
But consumers still have ethical values and standards – these have just shifted to boardroom practice, executive pay and supply chain management
The importance of localism is also crucial here – adding authenticity and trust
Implications and Summary
Tech & Consumer Trends
• Wider technology use is changing the way people organise and book holidays – and what they expect while on holiday
• Computing and internet access is increasing mobile-first
• Social media presents both a challenge and an opportunity for the industry
• Although they are cutting back, consumers prioritise their leisure time very highly and want to maximise the bang for their buck rather than miss out
• Their key desires are for control and simplicity – needs that are being eroded by the protracted downturn
• They also want personalised, unique experiences – and are using technology to deliver that
Group exercise
• What are the implications of these Technology and Consumer Trends – for the next decade?
• How should destination organisations respond now and in the longer term?
• What should they START doing, STOP doing and CONTINUE doing?
• Also – to feed back to the group What are the three most important implications from all the trends we’ve discussed today?
Technology and Consumer
Information Available to You
A report....
...a website ...and an
annotated
presentation /
workshop
slides...
Moving Forward
Group exercise
We will make an annotated presentation / workshop pack available to download from next week
• How could you use this (and/or the report and website) in your destination?
• What else (if anything) would you need to be able to do this?
Moving Forward
Thank You