the next industrial revolution

Peter Cochrane

COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s

www.ca-global.org

The next industrial revolution?

A prequel !

Not so long ago....unbelievable constraints !

An amazing confluence....all the technologies available in the same timeframe!

The digital divide has gone...hardware and access costs are no longer an issue....and nor is software!

Everybody is now on line...

>5Bn people have mobiles & >50% are internet ready!

>5Bn people have mobiles & >50% are internet ready!

Soon it will be everything!

…and now entering the workforce… -Any platform- Any device - Any OS - Any Application

- An entirely different expectation!

~20 years of living on line…

For young people, joining a company is like being catapulted back in time...

NetworkedCool Apps

Unlimited storageProcessing Power

BandwidthFixed & mobileOpen, sharing

Influential

For young people, joining a company is like being catapulted back in time...

NetworkedCool Apps

Unlimited storageProcessing Power

BandwidthFixed & mobileOpen, sharing

Influential

Why isn’t working at the office the same

as working at home?

IT Dept’s canno longer cope...or compete !

Creativity is nowat the edge, outof control, open, & distributed...

The most important hot spot....

People&

Society

Commerce&

Governance

Science&

Technology

The most important hot spot....

People&

Society

Commerce&

Governance

Science&

TechnologyThis where the action always is – and ‘we’ are the primary impediment of change

How the previous industrial revolution is still perceived....

The reality today....

Machines produce everything....and without them we would all die...

We have to stand on the shoulders of what went before....but it was a ‘food to waste’ cycle

This is unsustainable in the long, and perhaps even the short, term - and growth always has limits !

Mother Nature on the other hand....has created sustainable ‘food to waste to food’ cycles

This eco-system model is now one we have to aspire to…to live symbiotically with our planet !

A new all encompassing approach....

BioNano

IT +AI

A new all encompassing approach....

BioNano

IT +AIThis will give rise to new

materials, medicines, capabilities and greater understanding

The convergence of ‘dry’ & ‘wet’ science’ - genome, protein, nano, intelligence, robotics, AI + AL with old, and new forms of genetics

A new ability to replicate 3D objects at adistance...

Distributed design and production in the office and home...

With recycling that works and a new ‘open hardware’ movement/culture...leading to new models of innovation!

A new ability to program materials to form 3D objects of a predefined shape & function...

A new ability to understand complex systems through sheer computational power and AI...will transform Pharma & R&D +++

The biggest challenge we face?Our inherent inability to change quickly coupled with our ignorance of everything complex and non-linear...

The biggest challenge we face?Our inherent inability to change quickly coupled with our ignorance of everything complex and non-linear...

We need help from the very technology we are creating...in order to make the right choices & decisions

Where are people & society headed? Where are New Companies headed?

Less

Mor

e


Openness

Less

Mor

e


Openness

Sharing

Less

Mor

e


Openness

Sharing

Communicative

Less

Mor

e


Openness

Sharing

Communicative

Tech Capable

Less

Mor

e


Openness

Sharing

Communicative

Tech Capable

Transitory

Less

Mor

e


Openness

Sharing

Communicative

Tech Capable

Transitory

Independence

Less

Mor

e


Openness

Sharing

Communicative

Tech Capable

Transitory

Independence

Global

Less

Mor

e

Where are New Companies headed?Le

ss

Mor

e

Where are New Companies headed?

Controlism

Less

Mor

e


Controlism

Concentration

Less

Mor

e


Controlism

Concentration

Hierarchy

Less

Mor

e


Controlism

Concentration

Hierarchy

Myopia

Less

Mor

e


Controlism

Concentration

Hierarchy

Myopia

Adaptability & Flexibility

Less

Mor

e


Controlism

Concentration

Hierarchy

Myopia


People Focus

Less

Mor

e


Controlism

Concentration

Hierarchy

Myopia


People Focus

Outsourcing

Less

Mor

e

IT continues to be exponential !

Visible lightToday’s

transistors

Human hair

Bacteria

Viruses

0.1 nm

1.0 nm

10 nm

0.10 mm

1 mm

10 mm

100 mm0.1 mm

Diameter of a DNA helix Silicon lattice

constant Diameter of a carbon atom

X-rays

1 angstrom

Shockley, Bardeen,and Brattain - 1947

The first IC-1959

ICs-1980

End of the road?~2020 - 2025

Intel 2006Intel 2010

Is there an end in sight??

Atomic manipulation has been a reality for some time…& just gets better – currently approaching the electron

Why is IT really critical?

Well, on a grand scale, we don’t understand much!

Everything in the universe is governed by non-linearity and chaotic actions….


…but we are linear and limited thinkers devoidof tools & techniques tohelp us comprehend…


…but we are linear and limited thinkers devoidof tools & techniques tohelp us comprehend…

If we have a long-term future it lies with technology & machines and their ability to extend our knowledge and understanding

Time

SocietyTechnologyWealthHealthWell Being

AdvanceFutures

Oil runs out We do nothing Planet retaliates Life dies

Time


AdvanceFutures


Our green effort works& status quo just holds

Time


AdvanceFutures



Cold FusionClimatic ControlEarth ManagementNano - Bio Tech AI + AL +++

Time


AdvanceFutures



Cold FusionClimatic ControlEarth ManagementNano - Bio Tech AI + AL +++

Time


AdvanceFutures

Our climate and planet models areso crude that we have no real clueabout which trajectory we are on

…..and if we can influence it anyway!

We now live in a world of the infinite…

… how do you find, how do you choose?

Predicting the Present

Economic Index

Lag Variables Other Exogenous VariableGoogle Trends

35

Automobiles

36 9

Auto Sales by Make (Top 9 Make by Sales) Monthly Sales vs. Google Trends at Second Week of each month

When you get tectonic forces…

When you get tectonic forces…

Shift happens!

The changing shape of societies…

HunterGatherer

EarlyCivilizations

IndustrialRevolution

Inherentlylinear & wellbehaved…

Optimizing individualparts canoptimize

the whole

Intuitionmostly works


HunterGatherer

EarlyCivilizations

IndustrialRevolution

Inherentlylinear & wellbehaved…

Optimizing individualparts canoptimize

the whole

Intuitionmostly worksConnectivity ∝ N and does not scale


InformationSociety


InformationSociety

Connectivity

Phone ∝N2

Internet∝Nn


This all getsvery muchworse aseverythingbecomes

mobile andintelligent

and sensory

SemanticSociety


SemanticSociety

Inherentlynon-linear &

not wellbehaved…

Optimizing individual

parts neveroptimizes the whole

Intuitionmostly

fails

Web 3.0...4.0...5.0...

Web 3.0...4.0...5.0...

Autonomous: Sensors Computing power

Artificial Intelligence Human Augmentation Decision Making System Control People Support Society Support Commercial Support

The sociology of people & animals will be overtaken by the sociology of fixed & mobile things

We reward those who afford us more freedom – not less!

A general observa3on !

Spot the problem...

~9 months Tech Cycle

~2.5 years Management Cycle

~5 years People Cycle

2 - 10 years Procurement Cycle

Expect to see books, paper, telephones, email, txt ++ to d i e w i t h i n t h e n e x t decade ...and social nets & apps take over...