The NSF Science and TechnologyThe NSF Science and TechnologyCenters (STC) ProgramCenters (STC) Program

Opportunities to TransformOpportunities to Transform

Kelvin K. DroegemeierKelvin K. DroegemeierVice President for ResearchVice President for Research

Director Emeritus, Center for Analysis and Prediction of StormsDirector Emeritus, Center for Analysis and Prediction of StormsUniversity of OklahomaUniversity of Oklahoma

The STC ConceptThe STC Concept Create well-funded, long-term Create well-funded, long-term centerscenters exclusively at universities exclusively at universities

(though involving other entities)(though involving other entities) Attack Attack fundamental, high-risk science fundamental, high-risk science problems that are well problems that are well

beyond a single investigator and require multidisciplinary beyond a single investigator and require multidisciplinary approachesapproaches

Weave Weave education and knowledge transfer education and knowledge transfer throughout the centerthroughout the center’’s activitiess activities

Encourage linkages with Encourage linkages with industryindustry to effectuate practical to effectuate practical utilization as well as researchutilization as well as research

Efforts to Efforts to broaden participation broaden participation of underrepresented groupsof underrepresented groups Sunset law Sunset law -- seed fund (plant) and let others water!-- seed fund (plant) and let others water!

4 pages

4 pages 16 pages

The Role of STCs??The Role of STCs??SScience cience andand

TTechnoloechnologygyCCentersenters

The The SCIENCESCIENCE

Is this just chaos or is it predictable?

The seemingly impossible to predict

The The RelevanceRelevance

The The TECHNOLOGYTECHNOLOGY

Dat

a A

ssim

ilat

ion

RadarsRadars 1-D Wind, Precipitation

Other ObservationsOther Observations A Bit of Everything Some Places

ForecastForecastModel OutputModel Output

All Variables, But From a Forecast

3D Gridded AnalysisThat Contains allVariables, is DynamicallyConsistent, and has Minimum Global Error w/r/t theObservations

The The CENTERCENTER

The OutcomeThe Outcome

Xue et al. (2003)

NWS 12-hr Computer Forecast Valid at 6 pm CDTNWS 12-hr Computer Forecast Valid at 6 pm CDTNo No Explicit EvidenceExplicit Evidence of Precipitation in North Texas of Precipitation in North Texas

Reality was Quite Different!Reality was Quite Different!

6 pm 7 pm 8 pmR

adar

Hourly Radar Observations(Fort Worth Shown by the Pink Star)

6 pm 7 pm 8 pmR

adar

Fcs

t W

ith

Rad

ar D

ata

2 hr 3 hr 4 hr

Xue et al. (2003)

Fort Worth

Fort Worth

Real Time Testing TodayReal Time Testing Today

1 km grid, 9-hour Forecast

Not Much Time to RespondNot Much Time to Respond

Predicting Tornadoes: Can We Predicting Tornadoes: Can We Increase Lead Time to an Hour?Increase Lead Time to an Hour?

24 May 2011 Prediction24 May 2011 Prediction

Evidence of Evidence of ShortsightednessShortsightedness

19

20

Evidence of Evidence of ShortsightednessShortsightedness

550 deaths

Where we (Originally) Where we (Originally) Missed ItMissed It

Numerically predicting storms and tornadoes is Numerically predicting storms and tornadoes is a a physical science and technology physical science and technology challengechallenge

Saving lives is a Saving lives is a social and behavioral sciences social and behavioral sciences challengechallenge

Recovery and reduction of property loss is an Recovery and reduction of property loss is an economic and policy sciences economic and policy sciences challengechallenge

We hit a brick wall until we awakened to the We hit a brick wall until we awakened to the need for an need for an integrative approach involving all integrative approach involving all of the aboveof the above

Building the dialog with Building the dialog with other communities is a other communities is a significant but essential challengesignificant but essential challenge

The STC JourneyThe STC Journey

YEAR-0

YEAR-11

Proposal and Strategic Plan

Some of the Most Interesting Work

Some of the Most Interesting Work

SSTTCC

SSacrificeacrificeTTenacityenacityCChangeagenhangeagentt

STCs are a different animalSTCs are a different animal They need effective leadership They need effective leadership andand management management

– The two are very different!The two are very different!– Many scientists feel Many scientists feel burdenedburdened by management and by management and

administration: always drawn away from scienceadministration: always drawn away from science– ItIt’’s about s about empoweringempowering others to achieve others to achieve– Good science is only one component of a national Good science is only one component of a national

center; impact should be broad, deep and center; impact should be broad, deep and transformational at the transformational at the institutionalinstitutional and and nationalnational levelslevels

– The center director must LEAD in all dimensions, The center director must LEAD in all dimensions, realizing what appears often as a burden is an realizing what appears often as a burden is an enormous opportunityenormous opportunity

SSacrificeacrifice

TTenacityenacity If this was easy, you wouldnIf this was easy, you wouldn’’t be an STC!t be an STC! Plan on finding darts in your back if Plan on finding darts in your back if

youyou’’re out in front!re out in front! YouYou’’ll face entirely new problems that ll face entirely new problems that

seem to be a waste of timeseem to be a waste of time YouYou’’ll spend a lot of time cultivating ll spend a lot of time cultivating

relationships, only a few of which will relationships, only a few of which will bear significant fruitbear significant fruit

YouYou’’ll encounter resistance from your ll encounter resistance from your colleagues, university, and friendscolleagues, university, and friends

ItIt’’s not wasted effort – do it anyway!s not wasted effort – do it anyway!

In what ways is your center now, or In what ways is your center now, or poised to be, a broad and deep change poised to be, a broad and deep change agent? NATIONALLY/INTERNATIONALLY!agent? NATIONALLY/INTERNATIONALLY!

CChangeagenthangeagent

The STC ContributionThe STC Contribution Showing the importance of attacking HIGH RISK/HIGH Showing the importance of attacking HIGH RISK/HIGH

REWARD intellectual problemsREWARD intellectual problems Demonstrating the value of the Demonstrating the value of the ““center modecenter mode”” of research of research

– something – something difficult in traditional academic constructsdifficult in traditional academic constructs Showing the value of and strategies for interdisciplinary Showing the value of and strategies for interdisciplinary

researchresearch Testing new modalities of collaborationTesting new modalities of collaboration Driving change in Driving change in institutional processesinstitutional processes Bringing about entirely Bringing about entirely new fields new fields of scholarshipof scholarship Developing LEADERS, not just outstanding researchersDeveloping LEADERS, not just outstanding researchers Showing pathways from basic research to practical Showing pathways from basic research to practical

benefitsbenefits Helping with education/outreach and broadening Helping with education/outreach and broadening

participation, yet MUCH more needs to be doneparticipation, yet MUCH more needs to be done

When the Book is Written on When the Book is Written on CAPS...CAPS...

We would like to be remembered for the fact that weWe would like to be remembered for the fact that we– Did our best and did not squander the S&T Center opportunityDid our best and did not squander the S&T Center opportunity– Learned from our mistakes and listened to advice (and Learned from our mistakes and listened to advice (and

sometimes even followed it!)sometimes even followed it!)– Produced new scientific knowledge of the highest quality and Produced new scientific knowledge of the highest quality and

moved the field forward more quickly than otherwise would moved the field forward more quickly than otherwise would have been the casehave been the case

– Led major national initiatives that otherwise would not have Led major national initiatives that otherwise would not have happenedhappened

– Were good stewards of the funding entrusted to us and held Were good stewards of the funding entrusted to us and held ourselves to the highest standards of professional ethicsourselves to the highest standards of professional ethics

– Had the interests of the community in mind for every decision Had the interests of the community in mind for every decision mademade

– Recognized that our work was made possible by the efforts of Recognized that our work was made possible by the efforts of those who preceded usthose who preceded us

Please donPlease don’’t ever forget t ever forget to…to…

HAVE FUN!!!!HAVE FUN!!!!