the obama doctrine - the atantic

7/26/2019 The Obama Doctrine - The Atantic

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http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-

doctrine/471525/
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/471525/http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/471525/http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/471525/http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/471525/


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PRIL 2016 ISSUE
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/toc/2016/04/http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/toc/2016/04/http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/toc/2016/04/http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/toc/2016/04/


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FRIDAY, AUGUST30, 2013, the day the feckless Barack Obaa br!"#ht t! a $reat"re e%dAer&ca's re% as the (!rld's s!le &%d&s$e%sable s"$er$!(er)!r, alter%at&*ely, the day thesa#ac&!"s Barack Obaa $eered &%t! the +&ddle aster% abyss a%d ste$$ed back fr! thec!%s"&%# *!&d)be#a% (&th a th"%der&%# s$eech #&*e% !% Obaa's behalf by h&ssecretary !f state, -!h% .erry, &% /ash&%#t!%, D The s"bect !f .erry's

"%character&st&cally h"rch&ll&a% rearks, del&*ered &% the Treaty R!! at the StateDe$arte%t, (as the #ass&%# !f c&*&l&a%s by the $res&de%t !f Syr&a, Bashar alAssad

Obaa, &% (h!se ab&%et .erry ser*es fa&thf"lly, b"t (&th s!e e4as$erat&!%, &s h&self#&*e% t! *a"lt&%# !rat!ry, b"t %!t "s"ally !f the art&al s!rt ass!c&ated (&th h"rch&llObaa bel&e*es that the +a%&chaea%&s, a%d el!5"e%tly re%dered bell&c!s&ty, c!!%lyass!c&ated (&th h"rch&ll (ere "st&f&ed by 6&tler's r&se, a%d (ere at t&es defe%s&ble &% thestr"##le a#a&%st the S!*&et U%&!% B"t he als! th&%ks rhet!r&c sh!"ld be (ea$!%&7eds$ar&%#ly, &f at all, &% t!day's !re ab"!"s a%d c!$l&cated &%ter%at&!%al are%a The$res&de%t bel&e*es that h"rch&ll&a% rhet!r&c a%d, !re t! the $!&%t, h"rch&ll&a% hab&ts !fth!"#ht, hel$ed br&%# h&s $redecess!r, Ge!r#e / B"sh, t! r"&%!"s (ar &% Ira5 Obaa

e%tered the /h&te 6!"se be%t !% #ett&%# !"t !f Ira5 a%d Af#ha%&sta%8 he (as %!t seek&%#%e( dra#!%s t! slay A%d he (as $art&c"larly &%df"l !f $r!&s&%# *&ct!ry &% c!%fl&cts hebel&e*ed t! be "%(&%%able 9If y!" (ere t! say, f!r &%sta%ce, that (e're #!&%# t! r&dAf#ha%&sta% !f the Tal&ba% a%d b"&ld a $r!s$er!"s de!cracy &%stead, the $res&de%t &sa(are that s!e!%e, se*e% years later, &s #!&%# t! h!ld y!" t! that $r!&se,: Be% Rh!des,Obaa's de$"ty %at&!%alsec"r&ty ad*&ser, a%d h&s f!re%$!l&cy aa%"e%s&s, t!ld e %!tl!%# a#!

B"t .erry's r!"s&%# rearks !% that A"#"st day, (h&ch had bee% drafted &% $art by Rh!des,(ere threaded (&th rhte!"s a%#er a%d b!ld $r!&ses, &%cl"d&%# the barely c!%cealedthreat !f &&%e%t attack .erry, l&ke Obaa h&self, (as h!rr&f&ed by the s&%s c!&ttedby the Syr&a% re#&e &% &ts atte$t t! $"t d!(% a t(!year!ld rebell&!% I% the Daasc"ss"b"rb !f Gh!"ta %&%e days earl&er, Assad's ary had "rdered !re tha% 1,;00 c&*&l&a%s(&th sar&% #as The str!%# se%t&e%t &%s&de the Obaa ad&%&strat&!% (as that Assad hadear%ed d&re $"%&she%t I% S&t"at&!% R!! eet&%#s that f!ll!(ed the attack !% Gh!"ta,!%ly the /h&te 6!"se ch&ef !f staff, De%&s +cD!%!"#h, ca"t&!%ed e4$l&c&tly ab!"t the$er&ls !f &%ter*e%t&!% -!h% .erry ar#"ed *!c&fer!"sly f!r act&!%

9As $re*&!"s st!rs &% h&st!ry ha*e #athered, (he% "%s$eakable cr&es (ere (&th&% !"r$!(er t! st!$ the, (e ha*e bee% (ar%ed a#a&%st the te$tat&!%s !f l!!k&%# the !ther(ay,: .erry sa&d &% h&s s$eech 96&st!ry &s f"ll !f leaders (h! ha*e (ar%ed a#a&%st&%act&!%, &%d&ffere%ce, a%d es$ec&ally a#a&%st s&le%ce (he% &t attered !st:

.erry c!"%ted that a redl&%e f!r "s &s (e start see&%# a (h!le b"%ch !f che&cal (ea$!%s !*&%# ar!"%d !r be&%#"t&l&7ed That (!"ld cha%#e y calc"l"s That (!"ld cha%#e y e5"at&!%:

Des$&te th&s threat, Obaa seeed t! a%y cr&t&cs t! be c!ldly detached fr! the s"ffer&%#!f &%%!ce%t Syr&a%s ?ate &% the s"er !f 2011, he had called f!r Assad's de$art"re 9F!r


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the sake !f the Syr&a% $e!$le,: Obaa sa&d, 9the t&e has c!e f!r

&s the a"th!r !f a celebrated b!!k e4c!r&at&%# a s"ccess&!% !f US $res&de%ts f!r the&rfa&l"res t! $re*e%t #e%!c&de The b!!k,A Problem From Hell, $"bl&shed &% 2002, dre(Obaa t!


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t! $re*e%t h"a%&tar&a% d&sasters, "%less th!se d&sasters $!se a d&rect sec"r&ty threat t! theU%&ted States


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Obaa fl&$$ed th&s $lea !% &ts head 9/he% y!" ha*e a $r!fess&!%al ary,: he !%ce t!lde, 9that &s (ell ared a%d s$!%s!red by t(! lar#e states:)Ira% a%d R"ss&a)9(h! ha*eh"#e stakes &% th&s, a%d they are fht&%# a#a&%st a farer, a car$e%ter, a% e%#&%eer (h!started !"t as $r!testers a%d s"dde%ly %!( see thesel*es &% the &dst !f a c&*&l c!%fl&ct>: 6e $a"sed 9The %!t&!% that (e c!"ld ha*e)&% a clea% (ay that d&d%'t c!&t US

&l&tary f!rces)cha%#ed the e5"at&!% !% the #r!"%d there (as %e*er tr"e: The essa#eObaa tele#ra$hed &% s$eeches a%d &%ter*&e(s (as clear= 6e (!"ld %!t e%d "$ l&ke thesec!%d

t!ld e that 9the fa&l"re t! hel$ b"&ld "$ a cred&ble fht&%# f!rce !f the $e!$le (h! (erethe !r&%at!rs !f the $r!tests a#a&%st Assad > left a b *ac"", (h&ch the &had&sts ha*e%!( f&lled: /he% The Atlantic$"bl&shed th&s statee%t, a%d als! $"bl&shed l&%t!%'sassesse%t that 9#reat %at&!%s %eed !r#a%&7&%# $r&%c&$les, a%d D!%'t d! st"$&d st"ff' &s %!ta% !r#a%&7&%# $r&%c&$le,: Obaa becae 9r&$sh&t a%#ry,: acc!rd&%# t! !%e !f h&s se%&!rad*&sers The $res&de%t d&d %!t "%dersta%d h!( 9D!%'t d! st"$&d sh&t: c!"ld be c!%s&dereda c!%tr!*ers&al sl!#a% Be% Rh!des recalls that 9the 5"est&!%s (e (ere ask&%# &% the /h&te6!"se (ere /h! e4actly &s &% the st"$&dsh&t ca"c"s@ /h! &s $r!st"$&d sh&t@' : The Ira5


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&%*as&!%, Obaa bel&e*ed, sh!"ld ha*e ta"#ht De!crat&c &%ter*e%t&!%&sts l&ke l&%t!%,(h! had *!ted f!r &ts a"th!r&7at&!%, the da%#ers !f d!&%# st"$&d sh&t Cl&%t!% 5"&cklya$!l!#&7ed t! Obaa f!r her c!e%ts, a%d a l&%t!% s$!kesa% a%%!"%ced that the t(!(!"ld 9h"# &t !"t: !% +artha's H&%eyard (he% they cr!ssed $aths there later

Syr&a, f!r Obaa, re$rese%ted a sl!$e $!te%t&ally as sl&$$ery as Ira5 I% h&s f&rst ter, hecae t! bel&e*e that !%ly a ha%df"l !f threats &% the +&ddle ast c!%ce&*ably (arra%tedd&rect US &l&tary &%ter*e%t&!% These &%cl"ded the threat $!sed by alaeda8 threats t! thec!%t&%"ed e4&ste%ce !f Israel C9It (!"ld be a !ral fa&l&%# f!r e as $res&de%t !f the U%&tedStates: %!t t! defe%d Israel, he !%ce t!ld e8 a%d, %!t "%related t! Israel's sec"r&ty, thethreat $!sed by a %"clearared Ira% The da%#er t! the U%&ted States $!sed by the Assadre#&e d&d %!t r&se t! the le*el !f these challe%#es

G&*e% Obaa's ret&ce%ce ab!"t &%ter*e%t&!%, the brhtred l&%e he dre( f!r Assad &% thes"er !f 2012 (as str&k&%# *e% h&s !(% ad*&sers (ere s"r$r&sed 9I d&d%'t k%!( &t (asc!&%#,: h&s secretary !f defe%se at the t&e, ?e!%


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I% /h&te 6!"se eet&%#s that cr"c&al (eek &% A"#"st, B&de%, (h! !rd&%ar&ly sharedObaa's (!rr&es ab!"t Aer&ca% !*erreach, ar#"ed $ass&!%ately that 9b %at&!%s d!%'tbl"ff: Aer&ca's cl!sest all&es &% "r!$e a%d acr!ss the +&ddle ast bel&e*ed Obaa (asthreate%&%# &l&tary act&!%, a%d h&s !(% ad*&sers d&d as (ell At a !&%t $ress c!%fere%ce(&th Obaa at the /h&te 6!"se the $re*&!"s +ay, Da*&d aer!%, the Br&t&sh $r&e

&%&ster, had sa&d, 9Syr&a's h&st!ry &s be&%# (r&tte% &% the bl!!d !f her $e!$le, a%d &t &sha$$e%&%# !% !"r (atch: aer!%'s statee%t, !%e !f h&s ad*&sers t!ld e, (as ea%t t!e%c!"ra#e Obaa t!(ard !redec&s&*e act&!% 9The $r&e &%&ster (as certa&%ly "%derthe &$ress&!% that the $res&de%t (!"ld e%f!rce the red l&%e,: the ad*&ser t!ld e TheSa"d& abassad!r &% /ash&%#t!% at the t&e, Adel al-"be&r, t!ld fr&e%ds, a%d h&s s"$er&!rs&% R&yadh, that the $res&de%t (as f&%ally ready t! str&ke Obaa 9f"red !"t h!( &$!rta%tth&s &s,: -"be&r, (h! &s %!( the Sa"d& f!re% &%&ster, t!ld !%e &%terl!c"t!r 96e (&lldef&%&tely str&ke:

Obaa had already !rdered the


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Obaa a%d H&ce


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Obaa als! shared (&th +cD!%!"#h a l!%#sta%d&%# rese%te%t= 6e (as t&red !f (atch&%#/ash&%#t!% "%th&%k&%#ly dr&ft t!(ard (ar &% +"sl& c!"%tr&es F!"r years earl&er, the$res&de%t bel&e*ed, the


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Obaa's dec&s&!% ca"sed tre!rs acr!ss /ash&%#t!% as (ell -!h% +ca&% a%d ?&%dseyGraha, the t(! lead&%# Re$"bl&ca% ha(ks &% the Se%ate, had et (&th Obaa &% the/h&te 6!"se earl&er &% the (eek a%d had bee% $r!&sed a% attack They (ere a%#ered bythe ab!"tface Daa#e (as d!%e e*e% &%s&de the ad&%&strat&!% e&ther h"ck 6a#el,the% the secretary !f defe%se, %!r -!h% .erry (as &% the O*al Off&ce (he% the $res&de%t

&%f!red h&s tea !f h&s th&%k&%# .erry (!"ld %!t lear% ab!"t the cha%#e "%t&l later thate*e%&%# 9I "st #!t f"cked !*er,: he t!ld a fr&e%d sh!rtly after talk&%# t! the $res&de%t that%ht C/he% I asked .erry rece%tly ab!"t that t""lt"!"s %ht, he sa&d, 9I d&d%'t st!$ t!a%aly7e &t I f"red the $res&de%t had a reas!% t! ake a dec&s&!% a%d, h!%estly, I"%derst!!d h&s %!t&!%:

The %e4t fe( days (ere cha!t&c The $res&de%t asked !%#ress t! a"th!r&7e the "se !f f!rce)the &rre$ress&ble .erry ser*ed as ch&ef l!bby&st)a%d &t 5"&ckly becae a$$are%t &% the/h&te 6!"se that !%#ress had l&ttle &%terest &% a str&ke /he% I s$!ke (&th B&de% rece%tlyab!"t the redl&%e dec&s&!%, he ade s$ec&al %!te !f th&s fact 9It atters t! ha*e !%#ress(&th y!", &% ters !f y!"r ab&l&ty t! s"sta&% (hat y!" set !"t t! d!,: he sa&d Obaa 9d&d%'t

#! t! !%#ress t! #et h&self !ff the h!!k 6e had h&s d!"bts at that $!&%t, b"t he k%e( that&f he (as #!&%# t! d! a%yth&%#, he better da% (ell ha*e the $"bl&c (&th h&, !r &t (!"ldbe a *ery sh!rt r&de: !%#ress's clear ab&*ale%ce c!%*&%ced B&de% that Obaa (asc!rrect t! fear the sl&$$ery sl!$e 9/hat ha$$e%s (he% (e #et a $la%e sh!t d!(%@ D! (e%!t #! &% a%d resc"e@,: B&de% asked 9Y!" %eed the s"$$!rt !f the Aer&ca% $e!$le:

A&d the c!%f"s&!%, a de"s e4 ach&%a a$$eared &% the f!r !f the R"ss&a% $res&de%t,Hlad&&r


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9I' *ery $r!"d !f th&s !e%t,: he t!ld e 9The !*er(hel&%# (eht !f c!%*e%t&!%al(&sd! a%d the ach&%ery !f !"r %at&!%alsec"r&ty a$$arat"s had #!%e fa&rly far The$erce$t&!% (as that y cred&b&l&ty (as at stake, that Aer&ca's cred&b&l&ty (as at stake A%ds! f!r e t! $ress the $a"se b"tt!% at that !e%t, I k%e(, (!"ld c!st e $!l&t&cally A%dthe fact that I (as able t! $"ll back fr! the &ed&ate $ress"res a%d th&%k thr!"#h &% y

!(% &%d (hat (as &% Aer&ca's &%terest, %!t !%ly (&th res$ect t! Syr&a b"t als! (&thres$ect t! !"r de!cracy, (as as t!"#h a dec&s&!% as I'*e ade)a%d I bel&e*e "lt&ately &t(as the rht dec&s&!% t! ake:

Th&s (as the !e%t the $res&de%t bel&e*es he f&%ally br!ke (&th (hat he calls, der&s&*ely,the 9/ash&%#t!% $layb!!k:

9/here a I c!%tr!*ers&al@ /he% &t c!es t! the "se !f &l&tary $!(er,: he sa&d 9That &sthe s!"rce !f the c!%tr!*ersy There's a $layb!!k &% /ash&%#t!% that $res&de%ts ares"$$!sed t! f!ll!( It's a $layb!!k that c!es !"t !f the f!re%$!l&cy establ&she%t A%dthe $layb!!k $rescr&bes res$!%ses t! d&ffere%t e*e%ts, a%d these res$!%ses te%d t! be

&l&tar&7ed res$!%ses /here Aer&ca &s d&rectly threate%ed, the $layb!!k (!rks B"t the$layb!!k ca% als! be a tra$ that ca% lead t! bad dec&s&!%s I% the &dst !f a% &%ter%at&!%alchalle%#e l&ke Syr&a, y!" #et "d#ed harshly &f y!" d!%'t f!ll!( the $layb!!k, e*e% &f thereare #!!d reas!%s (hy &t d!es %!t a$$ly:

I ha*e c!e t! bel&e*e that, &% Obaa's &%d, A"#"st 30, 2013, (as h&s l&berat&!% day, theday he def&ed %!t !%ly the f!re%$!l&cy establ&she%t a%d &ts cr"&se&ss&le $layb!!k, b"tals! the dea%ds !f Aer&ca's fr"strat&%#, hha&%te%a%ce all&es &% the +&ddle ast)c!"%tr&es, he c!$la&%s $r&*ately t! fr&e%ds a%d ad*&sers, that seek t! e4$l!&t Aer&ca%9"scle: f!r the&r !(% %arr!( a%d sectar&a% e%ds By 2013, Obaa's rese%te%ts (ere(ell de*el!$ed 6e rese%ted &l&tary leaders (h! bel&e*ed they c!"ld f&4 a%y $r!ble &fthe c!a%der &% ch&ef (!"ld s&$ly #&*e the (hat they (a%ted, a%d he rese%ted thef!re%$!l&cy th&%kta%k c!$le4 A (&dely held se%t&e%t &%s&de the /h&te 6!"se &s thata%y !f the !st $r!&%e%t f!re%$!l&cy th&%k ta%ks &% /ash&%#t!% are d!&%# the b&dd&%#!f the&r Arab a%d $r!Israel f"%ders I'*e heard !%e ad&%&strat&!% !ff&c&al refer t!+assach"setts A*e%"e, the h!e !f a%y !f these th&%k ta%ks, as 9Arab!cc"$&edterr&t!ry:


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Obaa talks (&th R"ss&a%


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se%at!r fr! H&r#&%&a, t!ld e 9/e threate%ed &l&tary act&!% a%d they res$!%ded That'sdeterre%t cred&b&l&ty:

6&st!ry ay rec!rd A"#"st 30, 2013, as the day Obaa $re*e%ted the US fr! e%ter&%#yet a%!ther d&sastr!"s +"sl& c&*&l (ar, a%d the day he re!*ed the threat !f a che&cal

attack !% Israel, T"rkey, !r -!rda% Or &t c!"ld be reebered as the day he let the +&ddleast sl&$ fr! Aer&ca's #ras$, &%t! the ha%ds !f R"ss&a, Ira%, a%d ISIS

I FIRSTS B"t I als! k%!( that Sadda $!ses %! &&%e%t a%dd&rect threat t! the U%&ted States !r t! h&s %ehb!rs: 6e added, 9I k%!( that a% &%*as&!% !fIra5 (&th!"t a clear rat&!%ale a%d (&th!"t str!%# &%ter%at&!%al s"$$!rt (&ll !%ly fa% the

flaes !f the +&ddle ast, a%d e%c!"ra#e the (!rst, rather tha% best, &$"lses !f the Arab(!rld, a%d stre%#the% the recr"&te%t ar !f alaeda:

Th&s s$eech had ade e c"r&!"s ab!"t &ts a"th!r I (a%ted t! lear% h!( a% Ill&%!&s statese%at!r, a $artt&e la( $r!fess!r (h! s$e%t h&s days tra*el&%# bet(ee% h&ca#! a%dS$r&%#f&eld, had c!e t! a !re $resc&e%t "%dersta%d&%# !f the c!&%# 5"a#&re tha% the!st e4$er&e%ced f!re%$!l&cy th&%kers !f h&s $arty, &%cl"d&%# s"ch f"res as 6&llaryl&%t!%, -!e B&de%, a%d -!h% .erry, %!t t! e%t&!%, !f c!"rse, !st Re$"bl&ca%s a%d a%yf!re%$!l&cy a%alysts a%d (r&ters, &%cl"d&%# e

S&%ce that f&rst eet&%# &% 200E, I'*e &%ter*&e(ed Obaa $er&!d&cally, a&%ly !% atters

related t! the +&ddle ast B"t !*er the $ast fe( !%ths, I'*e s$e%t se*eral h!"rs talk&%#(&th h& ab!"t the br!adest thees !f h&s 9l!%# #ae: f!re% $!l&cy, &%cl"d&%# the theeshe &s !st ea#er t! d&sc"ss)%aely, the !%es that ha*e %!th&%# t! d! (&th the +&ddle ast

9ISIS&s %!t a% e4&ste%t&al threat t! the U%&ted States,: he t!ld e &% !%e !f thesec!%*ersat&!%s 9l&ate cha%#e &s a $!te%t&al e4&ste%t&al threat t! the e%t&re (!rld &f (ed!%'t d! s!eth&%# ab!"t &t: Obaa e4$la&%ed that cl&ate cha%#e (!rr&es h& &%$art&c"lar beca"se 9&t &s a $!l&t&cal $r!ble $erfectly des%ed t! re$el #!*er%e%t&%ter*e%t&!% It &%*!l*es e*ery s&%#le c!"%try, a%d &t &s a c!$arat&*ely sl!(!*&%#eer#e%cy, s! there &s al(ays s!eth&%# see&%#ly !re "r#e%t !% the a#e%da:

At the !e%t, !f c!"rse, the !st "r#e%t !f the 9see&%#ly !re "r#e%t: &ss"es &s Syr&aB"t at a%y #&*e% !e%t, Obaa's e%t&re $res&de%cy c!"ld be "$e%ded by !rth .!rea%a##ress&!%, !r a% assa"lt by R"ss&a !% a eber !f ATO, !r a%ISIS$la%%ed attack !% USs!&l Fe( $res&de%ts ha*e faced s"ch d&*erse tests !% the &%ter%at&!%al sta#e as Obaa has,a%d the challe%#e f!r h&, as f!r all $res&de%ts, has bee% t! d&st&%#"&sh the erely "r#e%tfr! the tr"ly &$!rta%t, a%d t! f!c"s !% the &$!rta%t


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+y #!al &% !"r rece%t c!%*ersat&!%s (as t! see the (!rld thr!"#h Obaa's eyes, a%d t!"%dersta%d (hat he bel&e*es Aer&ca's r!le &% the (!rld sh!"ld be Th&s art&cle &s &%f!redby !"r rece%t ser&es !f c!%*ersat&!%s, (h&ch t!!k $lace &% the O*al Off&ce8 !*er l"%ch &% h&sd&%&%# r!!8 ab!ardAir Force One8 a%d &% ."ala ?"$"r d"r&%# h&s !st rece%t *&s&t t!As&a, &% !*eber It &s als! &%f!red by y $re*&!"s &%ter*&e(s (&th h& a%d by h&s

s$eeches a%d $r!l&f&c $"bl&c r"&%at&!%s, as (ell as by c!%*ersat&!%s (&th h&s t!$ f!re%$!l&cy a%d %at&!%alsec"r&ty ad*&sers, f!re% leaders a%d the&r abassad!rs &% /ash&%#t!%,fr&e%ds !f the $res&de%t a%d !thers (h! ha*e s$!ke% (&th h& ab!"t h&s $!l&c&es a%ddec&s&!%s, a%d h&s ad*ersar&es a%d cr&t&cs

?e!%


16/47

Obaa talked e thr!"#h th&s a$$are%t c!%trad&ct&!% 9I (a%t a $res&de%t (h! has these%se that y!" ca%'t f&4 e*eryth&%#,: he sa&d B"t !% the !ther ha%d, 9&f (e d!%'t set thea#e%da, &t d!es%'t ha$$e%: 6e e4$la&%ed (hat he ea%t 9The fact &s, there &s %!t a s"&tI'*e atte%ded s&%ce I'*e bee% $res&de%t (here (e are %!t sett&%# the a#e%da, (here (e are%!t res$!%s&ble f!r the key res"lts,: he sa&d 9That's tr"e (hether y!"'re talk&%# ab!"t

%"clear sec"r&ty, (hether y!"'re talk&%# ab!"t sa*&%# the (!rld f&%a%c&al syste, (hethery!"'re talk&%# ab!"t cl&ate:

O%e day, !*er l"%ch &% the O*al Off&ce d&%&%# r!!, I asked the $res&de%t h!( he th!"#hth&s f!re% $!l&cy ht be "%derst!!d by h&st!r&a%s 6e started by descr&b&%# f!r e af!"rb!4 #r&d re$rese%t&%# the a&% sch!!ls !f Aer&ca% f!re%$!l&cy th!"#ht O%e b!4he called &s!lat&!%&s, (h&ch he d&s&ssed !"t !f ha%d 9The (!rld &s e*ershr&%k&%#,: hesa&d 9/&thdra(al &s "%te%able: The !ther b!4es he labeled real&s, l&beral&%ter*e%t&!%&s, a%d &%ter%at&!%al&s 9I s"$$!se y!" c!"ld call e a real&st &% bel&e*&%#(e ca%'t, at a%y #&*e% !e%t, rel&e*e all the (!rld's &sery,: he sa&d 9/e ha*e t! ch!!se(here (e ca% ake a real &$act: 6e als! %!ted that he (as 5"&te !b*&!"sly a%

&%ter%at&!%al&st, de*!ted as he &s t! stre%#the%&%# "lt&lateral !r#a%&7at&!%s a%d&%ter%at&!%al %!rs

I t!ld h& y &$ress&!% (as that the *ar&!"s tra"as !f the $ast se*e% years ha*e, &fa%yth&%#, &%te%s&f&ed h&s c!&te%t t! real&stdr&*e% restra&%t 6ad %early t(! f"ll ters&% the /h&te 6!"se s!"red h& !% &%ter*e%t&!%&s@

9F!r all !f !"r (arts, the U%&ted States has clearly bee% a f!rce f!r #!!d &% the (!rld,: hesa&d 9If y!" c!$are "s t! $re*&!"s s"$er$!(ers, (e act less !% the bas&s !f %aked self&%terest, a%d ha*e bee% &%terested &% establ&sh&%# %!rs that be%ef&t e*ery!%e If &t &s$!ss&ble t! d! #!!d at a bearable c!st, t! sa*e l&*es, (e (&ll d! &t:

If a cr&s&s, !r a h"a%&tar&a% catastr!$he, d!es %!t eet h&s str&%#e%t sta%dard f!r (hatc!%st&t"tes a d&rect %at&!%alsec"r&ty threat, Obaa sa&d, he d!es%'t bel&e*e that he sh!"ldbe f!rced &%t! s&le%ce 6e &s %!t s! "ch the real&st, he s"##ested, that he (!%'t $ass"d#e%t !% !ther leaders Th!"#h he has s! far r"led !"t the "se !f d&rect Aer&ca% $!(ert! de$!se Assad, he (as %!t (r!%#, he ar#"ed, t! call !% Assad t! #! 9Ofte%t&es (he%y!" #et cr&t&cs !f !"r Syr&a $!l&cy, !%e !f the th&%#s that they'll $!&%t !"t &s Y!" called f!rAssad t! #!, b"t y!" d&d%'t f!rce h& t! #! Y!" d&d %!t &%*ade' A%d the %!t&!% &s that &fy!" (ere%'t #!&%# t! !*erthr!( the re#&e, y!" sh!"ld%'t ha*e sa&d a%yth&%# That's a(e&rd ar#"e%t t! e, the %!t&!% that &f (e "se !"r !ral a"th!r&ty t! say Th&s &s a br"talre#&e, a%d th&s &s %!t h!( a leader sh!"ld treat h&s $e!$le,' !%ce y!" d! that, y!" are!bled t! &%*ade the c!"%try a%d &%stall a #!*er%e%t y!" $refer:

9I a *ery "ch the &%ter%at&!%al&st,: Obaa sa&d &% a later c!%*ersat&!% 9A%d I a als!a% &deal&st &%s!far as I bel&e*e that (e sh!"ld be $r!!t&%# *al"es, l&ke de!cracy a%dh"a% rhts a%d %!rs a%d *al"es, beca"se %!t !%ly d! they ser*e !"r &%terests the !re$e!$le ad!$t *al"es that (e share)&% the sae (ay that, ec!%!&cally, &f $e!$le ad!$t r"le!f la( a%d $r!$erty rhts a%d s! f!rth, that &s t! !"r ad*a%ta#e)b"t beca"se &t akes the(!rld a better $lace A%d I' (&ll&%# t! say that &% a *ery c!r%y (ay, a%d &% a (ay that$r!bably Bre%t Sc!(cr!ft (!"ld %!t say


17/47

96a*&%# sa&d that,: he c!%t&%"ed, 9I als! bel&e*e that the (!rld &s a t!"#h, c!$l&cated,essy, ea% $lace, a%d f"ll !f hardsh&$ a%d tra#edy A%d &% !rder t! ad*a%ce b!th !"rsec"r&ty &%terests a%d th!se &deals a%d *al"es that (e care ab!"t, (e'*e #!t t! behardheaded at the sae t&e as (e're bhearted, a%d $&ck a%d ch!!se !"r s$!ts, a%drec!#%&7e that there are #!&%# t! be t&es (here the best that (e ca% d! &s t! sh&%e a

s$!tlht !% s!eth&%# that's terr&ble, b"t %!t bel&e*e that (e ca% a"t!at&cally s!l*e &tThere are #!&%# t! be t&es (here !"r sec"r&ty &%terests c!%fl&ct (&th !"r c!%cer%s ab!"th"a% rhts There are #!&%# t! be t&es (here (e ca% d! s!eth&%# ab!"t &%%!ce%t$e!$le be&%# k&lled, b"t there are #!&%# t! be t&es (here (e ca%'t:

If Obaa e*er 5"est&!%ed (hether Aer&ca really &s the (!rld's !%e &%d&s$e%sable %at&!%,he %! l!%#er d!es s! B"t he &s the rare $res&de%t (h! sees at t&es t! rese%t&%d&s$e%sab&l&ty, rather tha% ebrace &t 9Free r&ders a##ra*ate e,: he t!ld e Rece%tly,Obaa (ar%ed that Great Br&ta&% (!"ld %! l!%#er be able t! cla& a 9s$ec&al relat&!%sh&$:(&th the U%&ted States &f &t d&d %!t c!&t t! s$e%d&%# at least 2 $erce%t !f &ts GD< !%defe%se 9Y!" ha*e t! $ay y!"r fa&r share,: Obaa t!ld Da*&d aer!%, (h! s"bse5"e%tlyet the 2 $erce%t thresh!ld


18/47

Obaa a%d "ba%


19/47

&s#&*&%#s ab!"t Syr&a, he has %!t had a sec!%d th!"#ht ab!"t dr!%es: S!e cr&t&cs ar#"ehe sh!"ld ha*e had a fe( sec!%d th!"#hts ab!"t (hat they see as the !*er"se !f dr!%esB"t -!h% Bre%%a%, Obaa's IA d&rect!r, t!ld e rece%tly that he a%d the $res&de%t 9ha*es&&lar *&e(s O%e !f the &s that s!et&es y!" ha*e t! take a l&fe t! sa*e e*e% !rel&*es /e ha*e a s&&lar *&e( !f "st(ar the!ry The $res&de%t re5"&res %earcerta&%ty !f %!

c!llateral daa#e B"t &f he bel&e*es &t &s %ecessary t! act, he d!es%'t hes&tate:

Th!se (h! s$eak (&th Obaa ab!"t &had&st th!"#ht say that he $!ssesses a %!&ll"s&!%s"%dersta%d&%# !f the f!rces that dr&*e a$!caly$t&c *&!le%ce a!%# rad&cal +"sl&s, b"t hehas bee% caref"l ab!"t art&c"lat&%# that $"bl&cly, !"t !f c!%cer% that he (&ll e4acerbate a%t&+"sl& 4e%!$h!b&a 6e has a tra#&c real&st's "%dersta%d&%# !f s&%, c!(ard&ce, a%dc!rr"$t&!%, a%d a 6!bbes&a% a$$rec&at&!% !f h!( fear sha$es h"a% beha*&!r A%d yet hec!%s&ste%tly, a%d (&th a$$are%t s&%cer&ty, $r!fesses !$t&&s that the (!rld &s be%d&%#t!(ard "st&ce 6e &s, &% a (ay, a 6!bbes&a% !$t&&st

The c!%trad&ct&!%s d! %!t e%d there Th!"#h he has a re$"tat&!% f!r $r"de%ce, he has als!

bee% ea#er t! 5"est&!% s!e !f the l!%#sta%d&%# ass"$t&!%s "%der#&rd&%# trad&t&!%al USf!re%$!l&cy th&%k&%# T! a rearkable de#ree, he &s (&ll&%# t! 5"est&!% (hy Aer&ca'se%e&es are &ts e%e&es, !r (hy s!e !f &ts fr&e%ds are &ts fr&e%ds 6e !*erthre( half ace%t"ry !f b&$art&sa% c!%se%s"s &% !rder t! reestabl&sh t&es (&th "ba 6e 5"est&!%ed (hythe US sh!"ld a*!&d se%d&%# &ts f!rces &%t!


20/47

9It $"lls y!" back &%,: Obaa sa&d, c!$let&%# the th!"#ht

The st!ry !f Obaa's e%c!"%ter (&th the +&ddle ast f!ll!(s a% arc !f d&se%cha%te%t I%h&s f&rst e4te%ded s$ree !f fae, as a $res&de%t&al ca%d&date &% 200J, Obaa !fte% s$!ke(&th h!$e ab!"t the re#&!% I% Berl&% that s"er, &% a s$eech t! 200,000 ad!r&%#

Gera%s, he sa&d, 9Th&s &s the !e%t (e "st hel$ a%s(er the call f!r a %e( da(% &% the+&ddle ast:

The %e4t year, as $res&de%t, he #a*e a s$eech &% a&r! ea%t t! reset US relat&!%s (&th the(!rld's +"sl&s 6e s$!ke ab!"t +"sl&s &% h&s !(% fa&ly, a%d h&s ch&ldh!!d years &%I%d!%es&a, a%d c!%fessed Aer&ca's s&%s e*e% as he cr&t&c&7ed th!se &% the +"sl& (!rld(h! de!%&7ed the US /hat dre( the !st atte%t&!%, th!"#h, (as h&s $r!&se t! addressthe Israel&


21/47

Br&t&sh


22/47

$r&e &%&ster= 9B&b&, y!" ha*e t! "%dersta%d s!eth&%#,: he sa&d 9I' the Afr&ca%Aer&ca% s!% !f a s&%#le !ther, a%d I l&*e here, &% th&s h!"se I l&*e &% the /h&te 6!"se Ia%a#ed t! #et elected $res&de%t !f the U%&ted States Y!" th&%k I d!%'t "%dersta%d (haty!"'re talk&%# ab!"t, b"t I d!: Other leaders als! fr"strate h& &e%sely arly !%,Obaa sa( Rece$ Tayy&$ rd!a%, the $res&de%t !f T"rkey, as the s!rt !f !derate +"sl&

leader (h! (!"ld br&d#e the d&*&de bet(ee% ast a%d /est)b"t Obaa %!( c!%s&dersh& a fa&l"re a%d a% a"th!r&tar&a%, !%e (h! ref"ses t! "se h&s e%!r!"s ary t! br&%#stab&l&ty t! Syr&a A%d !% the s&del&%es !f aATOs"&t &% /ales &% 201;, Obaa $"lledas&de .&%# Abd"llah II !f -!rda% Obaa sa&d he had heard that Abd"llah had c!$la&%edt! fr&e%ds &% the US !%#ress ab!"t h&s leadersh&$, a%d t!ld the k&%# that &f he hadc!$la&%ts, he sh!"ld ra&se the d&rectly The k&%# de%&ed that he had s$!ke% &ll !f h&

I% rece%t days, the $res&de%t has take% t! !k&%# $r&*ately, 9All I %eed &% the +&ddle ast &sa fe( sart a"t!crats: Obaa has al(ays had a f!%d%ess f!r $ra#at&c, e!t&!%allyc!%ta&%ed tech%!crats, tell&%# a&des, 9If !%ly e*ery!%e c!"ld be l&ke the Sca%d&%a*&a%s, th&s(!"ld all be easy:

The "%ra*el&%# !f the Arab S$r&%# darke%ed the $res&de%t's *&e( !f (hat the US c!"ldach&e*e &% the +&ddle ast, a%d ade h& real&7e h!( "ch the cha!s there (as d&stract&%#fr! !ther $r&!r&t&es 9The $res&de%t rec!#%&7ed d"r&%# the c!"rse !f the Arab S$r&%# thatthe +&ddle ast (as c!%s"&%# "s,: -!h% Bre%%a%, (h! ser*ed &% Obaa's f&rst ter as h&sch&ef c!"%terterr!r&s ad*&ser, t!ld e rece%tly

B"t (hat sealed Obaa's fatal&st&c *&e( (as the fa&l"re !f h&s ad&%&strat&!%'s &%ter*e%t&!%&% ?&bya, &% 2011 That &%ter*e%t&!% (as ea%t t! $re*e%t the c!"%try's the%d&ctat!r,+"aar addaf&, fr! sla"#hter&%# the $e!$le !f Be%#ha7&, as he (as threate%&%# t! d!Obaa d&d %!t (a%t t! !&% the fht8 he (as c!"%seled by -!e B&de% a%d h&s f&rsttersecretary !f defe%se R!bert Gates, a!%# !thers, t! steer clear B"t a str!%# fact&!% (&th&%the %at&!%alsec"r&ty tea)Secretary !f State 6&llary l&%t!% a%d S"sa% R&ce, (h! (asthe% the abassad!r t! the U%&ted at&!%s, al!%# (&th Saa%tha

B"t Obaa says t!day !f the &%ter*e%t&!%, 9It d&d%'t (!rk: The US, he bel&e*es, $la%%edthe ?&bya !$erat&!% caref"lly)a%d yet the c!"%try &s st&ll a d&saster

/hy, #&*e% (hat sees t! be the $res&de%t's %at"ral ret&ce%ce t!(ard #ett&%# &l&tar&lye%s%arled (here Aer&ca% %at&!%al sec"r&ty &s %!t d&rectly at stake, d&d he acce$t therec!e%dat&!% !f h&s !re act&*&st ad*&sers t! &%ter*e%e@

9The s!c&al !rder &% ?&bya has br!ke% d!(%,: Obaa sa&d, e4$la&%&%# h&s th&%k&%# at thet&e 9Y!" ha*e ass&*e $r!tests a#a&%st addaf& Y!"'*e #!t tr&bal d&*&s&!%s &%s&de !f?&bya Be%#ha7& &s a f!cal $!&%t f!r the !$$!s&t&!% re#&e A%d addaf& &s arch&%# h&sary t!(ard Be%#ha7&, a%d he has sa&d, /e (&ll k&ll the l&ke rats'


23/47

9!(, !$t&!% !%e (!"ld be t! d! %!th&%#, a%d there (ere s!e &% y ad&%&strat&!% (h!sa&d, as tra#&c as the ?&bya% s&t"at&!% ay be, &t's %!t !"r $r!ble The (ay I l!!ked at &t(as that &t (!"ld be !"r $r!ble &f, &% fact, c!$lete cha!s a%d c&*&l (ar br!ke !"t &%?&bya B"t th&s &s %!t s! at the c!re !f US &%terests that &t akes se%se f!r "s t! "%&laterallystr&ke a#a&%st the addaf& re#&e At that $!&%t, y!"'*e #!t "r!$e a%d a %"ber !f G"lf

c!"%tr&es (h! des$&se addaf&, !r are c!%cer%ed !% a h"a%&tar&a% bas&s, (h! are call&%#f!r act&!% B"t (hat has bee% a hab&t !*er the last se*eral decades &% these c&rc"sta%ces &s$e!$le $"sh&%# "s t! act b"t the% sh!(&%# a% "%(&ll&%#%ess t! $"t a%y sk&% &% the #ae:

9Free r&ders@,: I &%terected

9Free r&ders,: he sa&d, a%d c!%t&%"ed 9S! (hat I sa&d at that $!&%t (as, (e sh!"ld act as$art !f a% &%ter%at&!%al c!al&t&!% B"t beca"se th&s &s %!t at the c!re !f !"r &%terests, (e%eed t! #et a U a%date8 (e %eed "r!$ea%s a%d G"lf c!"%tr&es t! be act&*ely &%*!l*ed &%the c!al&t&!%8 (e (&ll a$$ly the &l&tary ca$ab&l&t&es that are "%&5"e t! "s, b"t (e e4$ect!thers t! carry the&r (eht A%d (e (!rked (&th !"r defe%se teas t! e%s"re that (e c!"ld

e4ec"te a strate#y (&th!"t $"tt&%# b!!ts !% the #r!"%d a%d (&th!"t a l!%#ter &l&taryc!&te%t &% ?&bya

9S! (e act"ally e4ec"ted th&s $la% as (ell as I c!"ld ha*e e4$ected= /e #!t a U a%date,(e b"&lt a c!al&t&!%, &t c!st "s V1 b&ll&!%)(h&ch, (he% &t c!es t! &l&tary !$erat&!%s, &s*ery chea$ /e a*erted lar#escale c&*&l&a% cas"alt&es, (e $re*e%ted (hat al!st s"rely(!"ld ha*e bee% a $r!l!%#ed a%d bl!!dy c&*&l c!%fl&ct A%d des$&te all that, ?&bya &s aess:

"ess &s the $res&de%t's d&$l!at&c ter8 $r&*ately, he calls ?&bya a 9sh&t sh!(,: &% $artbeca"se &t's s"bse5"e%tly bec!e a% ISISha*e%)!%e that he has already tar#eted (&th a&rstr&kes It becae a sh&t sh!(, Obaa bel&e*es, f!r reas!%s that had less t! d! (&thAer&ca% &%c!$ete%ce tha% (&th the $ass&*&ty !f Aer&ca's all&es a%d (&th the !bd"rate$!(er !f tr&bal&s

9/he% I #! back a%d I ask yself (hat (e%t (r!%#,: Obaa sa&d, 9there's r!! f!rcr&t&c&s, beca"se I had !re fa&th &% the "r!$ea%s, #&*e% ?&bya's $r!4&&ty, be&%#&%*ested &% the f!ll!("$,: he sa&d 6e %!ted that &c!las Sark!7y, the Fre%ch $res&de%t,l!st h&s !b the f!ll!(&%# year A%d he sa&d that Br&t&sh


24/47

Obaa als! blaed &%ter%al ?&bya% dy%a&cs 9The de#ree !f tr&bal d&*&s&!% &% ?&bya (as#reater tha% !"r a%alysts had e4$ected A%d !"r ab&l&ty t! ha*e a%y k&%d !f str"ct"re therethat (e c!"ld &%teract (&th a%d start tra&%&%# a%d start $r!*&d&%# res!"rces br!ke d!(% *ery5"&ckly:

?&bya $r!*ed t! h& that the +&ddle ast (as best a*!&ded 9There &s %! (ay (e sh!"ldc!&t t! #!*er%&%# the +&ddle ast a%d !rth Afr&ca,: he rece%tly t!ld a f!rerc!llea#"e fr! the Se%ate 9That (!"ld be a bas&c, f"%dae%tal &stake:

PRSIDTOBA+ADIDOTc!e &%t! !ff&ce $re!cc"$&ed by the +&ddle ast 6e &s thef&rst ch&ld !f the


25/47

OARAIY/DSDAY&% &d!*eber,


26/47

tr&$ (ere (!rk&%# a#a&%st h& B"t he has %e*er bel&e*ed that terr!r&s $!ses a threat t!Aer&ca c!e%s"rate (&th the fear &t #e%erates *e% d"r&%# the $er&!d &% 201;(he% ISIS(as e4ec"t&%# &ts Aer&ca% ca$t&*es &% Syr&a, h&s e!t&!%s (ere &% check Haler&e-arrett, Obaa's cl!sest ad*&ser, t!ld h& $e!$le (ere (!rr&ed that the #r!"$ (!"ld s!!%take &ts behead&%# ca$a% t! the US 9They're %!t c!&%# here t! ch!$ !"r heads !ff,:

he reass"red her Obaa fre5"e%tly re&%ds h&s staff that terr!r&s takes far fe(er l&*es &%Aer&ca tha% ha%d#"%s, car acc&de%ts, a%d falls &% batht"bs d! Se*eral years a#!, hee4$ressed t! e h&s ad&rat&!% f!r Israel&s' 9res&l&e%ce: &% the face !f c!%sta%t terr!r&s,a%d &t &s clear that he (!"ld l&ke t! see res&l&e%ce re$lace $a%&c &% Aer&ca% s!c&etye*ertheless, h&s ad*&sers are fht&%# a c!%sta%t rear#"ard act&!% t! kee$ Obaa fr!$lac&%# terr!r&s &% (hat he c!%s&ders &ts 9$r!$er: $ers$ect&*e, !"t !f c!%cer% that he (&llsee &%se%s&t&*e t! the fears !f the Aer&ca% $e!$le

Obaa a%d US Secretary !f State -!h% .erry l!!k !% d"r&%# a eet&%# (&th T"rk&sh


27/47

fasc&s a%d !ther th&%#s break&%# !"t Of c!"rse (e ha*e a% &%terest &% th&s, a h"#e &%terest&% th&s:

/he% I %!ted t! .erry that the $res&de%t's rhet!r&c d!es%'t atch h&s, he sa&d, 9


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9ht h!"rs !f lht&%#,: she res$!%ded

Obaa= 9A%d the la$ &s V20):

+&e%!= 9Ar!"%d V20:

9I th&%k A&sa &s a $erfect e4a$le !f (hat (e're see&%# &% a l!t !f c!"%tr&es)y!"%#e%tre$re%e"rs c!&%# "$ (&th lea$fr!# tech%!l!#&es, &% the sae (ays that &% lar#e $!rt&!%s!f As&a a%d Afr&ca, the !ld la%dl&%e $h!%es %e*er #!t set "$,: Obaa sa&d, beca"se th!seareas "$ed straht t! !b&le $h!%es Obaa e%c!"ra#ed -ack +a t! f"%d her (!rk9She's (!%, by the (ay, a l!t !f $r&7es a%d #!tte% a l!t !f atte%t&!%, s! th&s &s %!t l&ke !%e !fth!se &%f!erc&als (here y!" !rder &t, a%d y!" ca%'t ake the th&%# (!rk,: he sa&d, t!la"#hter

The %e4t day, ab!ardAir Force Onee% r!"te t! ."ala ?"$"r, I e%t&!%ed t! Obaa thathe seeed #e%"&%ely ha$$y t! be !%sta#e (&th +a a%d +&e%!, a%d the% I $&*!ted a(ay

fr! As&a, ask&%# h& &f a%yth&%# ab!"t the +&ddle ast akes h& ha$$y

9Rht %!(, I d!%'t th&%k that a%yb!dy ca% be feel&%# #!!d ab!"t the s&t"at&!% &% the+&ddle ast,: he sa&d 9Y!" ha*e c!"%tr&es that are fa&l&%# t! $r!*&de $r!s$er&ty a%d!$$!rt"%&ty f!r the&r $e!$le Y!"'*e #!t a *&!le%t, e4tre&st &de!l!#y, !r &de!l!#&es, that aret"rb!char#ed thr!"#h s!c&al ed&a Y!"'*e #!t c!"%tr&es that ha*e *ery fe( c&*&ctrad&t&!%s, s! that as a"t!crat&c re#&es start fray&%#, the !%ly !r#a%&7&%# $r&%c&$les aresectar&a%:

6e (e%t !%, 9!%trast that (&th S!"theast As&a, (h&ch st&ll has h"#e $r!bles)e%!r!"s$!*erty, c!rr"$t&!%)b"t &s f&lled (&th str&*&%#, ab&t&!"s, e%er#et&c $e!$le (h! are e*ery

s&%#le day scratch&%# a%d cla(&%# t! b"&ld b"s&%esses a%d #et ed"cat&!% a%d f&%d !bs a%db"&ld &%frastr"ct"re The c!%trast &s $retty stark:

I% As&a, as (ell as &% ?at&% Aer&ca a%d Afr&ca, Obaa says, he sees y!"%# $e!$leyear%&%# f!r self&$r!*ee%t, !der%&ty, ed"cat&!%, a%d ater&al (ealth

9They are %!t th&%k&%# ab!"t h!( t! k&ll Aer&ca%s,: he says 9/hat they're th&%k&%# ab!"t&sHow do ! get a better education% How do ! create something of &alue%:

6e the% ade a% !bser*at&!% that I cae t! real&7e (as re$rese%tat&*e !f h&s bleakest, !st*&sceral "%dersta%d&%# !f the +&ddle ast t!day)%!t the s!rt !f "%dersta%d&%# that a /h&te6!"se st&ll !r&e%ted ar!"%d thees !f h!$e a%d cha%#e ht ch!!se t! ad*ert&se 9If (e're%!t talk&%# t! the,: he sa&d, referr&%# t! y!"%# As&a%s a%d Afr&ca%s a%d ?at&% Aer&ca%s,9beca"se the !%ly th&%# (e're d!&%# &s f"r&%# !"t h!( t! destr!y !r c!rd!% !ff !r c!%tr!lthe al&c&!"s, %&h&l&st&c, *&!le%t $arts !f h"a%&ty, the% (e're &ss&%# the b!at:

Obaa's cr&t&cs ar#"e that he &s &%effect&*e &% c!rd!%&%# !ff the *&!le%t %&h&l&sts !f rad&calIsla beca"se he d!es%'t "%dersta%d the threat 6e d!es res&st refract&%# rad&cal Islathr!"#h the 9clash !f c&*&l&7at&!%s: $r&s $!$"lar&7ed by the late $!l&t&cal sc&e%t&st Sa"el


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6"%t&%#t!% B"t th&s &s beca"se, he a%d h&s ad*&sers ar#"e, he d!es %!t (a%t t! e%lar#e thera%ks !f the e%ey 9The #!al &s %!t t! f!rce a 6"%t&%#t!% te$late !%t! th&s c!%fl&ct,: sa&d-!h% Bre%%a%, the IA d&rect!r

B!th Fra%K!&s 6!lla%de a%d Da*&d aer!% ha*e s$!ke% ab!"t the threat !f rad&cal Isla

&% !re 6"%t&%#t!%es5"e ters, a%d I'*e heard that b!th e% (&sh Obaa (!"ld "se!red&rect la%#"a#e &% d&sc"ss&%# the threat /he% I e%t&!%ed th&s t! Obaa he sa&d,96!lla%de a%d aer!% ha*e "sed $hrases, l&ke radical !slam, that (e ha*e %!t "sed !% are#"lar bas&s as !"r (ay !f tar#et&%# terr!r&s B"t I'*e %e*er had a c!%*ersat&!% (he%they sa&d, +a%, h!( c!e y!"'re %!t "s&%# th&s $hrase the (ay y!" hear Re$"bl&ca%s say&t@' : Obaa says he has dea%ded that +"sl& leaders d! !re t! el&&%ate the threat !f*&!le%t f"%dae%tal&s 9It &s *ery clear (hat I ea%,: he t!ld e, 9(h&ch &s that there &s a*&!le%t, rad&cal, fa%at&cal, %&h&l&st&c &%ter$retat&!% !f Isla by a fact&!%)a t&%y fact&!%)(&th&% the +"sl& c!"%&ty that &s !"r e%ey, a%d that has t! be defeated:

6e the% !ffered a cr&t&5"e that s!"%ded !re &% l&%e (&th the rhet!r&c !f aer!% a%d

6!lla%de 9There &s als! the %eed f!r Isla as a (h!le t! challe%#e that &%ter$retat&!% !fIsla, t! &s!late &t, a%d t! "%der#! a *!r!"s d&sc"ss&!% (&th&% the&r c!"%&ty ab!"t h!(Isla (!rks as $art !f a $eacef"l, !der% s!c&ety,: he sa&d B"t he added, 9I d! %!t$ers"ade $eacef"l, t!lera%t +"sl&s t! e%#a#e &% that debate &f I' %!t se%s&t&*e t! the&rc!%cer% that they are be&%# ta##ed (&th a br!ad br"sh:

Obaa a%d -a$a%ese


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I% $r&*ate e%c!"%ters (&th !ther (!rld leaders, Obaa has ar#"ed that there (&ll be %!c!$rehe%s&*e s!l"t&!% t! Isla&st terr!r&s "%t&l Isla rec!%c&les &tself t! !der%&ty a%d"%der#!es s!e !f the ref!rs that ha*e cha%#ed hr&st&a%&ty

Th!"#h he has ar#"ed, c!%tr!*ers&ally, that the +&ddle ast's c!%fl&cts 9date back

&lle%%&a,: he als! bel&e*es that the &%te%s&f&ed +"sl& f"ry !f rece%t years (as e%c!"ra#edby c!"%tr&es c!%s&dered fr&e%ds !f the US I% a eet&%# d"r&%#A


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B"t he (e%t !% t! say that the Sa"d&s %eed t! 9share: the +&ddle ast (&th the&r Ira%&a%f!es 9The c!$et&t&!% bet(ee% the Sa"d&s a%d the Ira%&a%s)(h&ch has hel$ed t! feed$r!4y (ars a%d cha!s &% Syr&a a%d Ira5 a%d Yee%)re5"&res "s t! say t! !"r fr&e%ds as(ell as t! the Ira%&a%s that they %eed t! f&%d a% effect&*e (ay t! share the %ehb!rh!!d a%d&%st&t"te s!e s!rt !f c!ld $eace,: he sa&d 9A% a$$r!ach that sa&d t! !"r fr&e%ds Y!" are

rht, Ira% &s the s!"rce !f all $r!bles, a%d (e (&ll s"$$!rt y!" &% deal&%# (&th Ira%'(!"ld esse%t&ally ea% that as these sectar&a% c!%fl&cts c!%t&%"e t! ra#e a%d !"r G"lf$art%ers, !"r trad&t&!%al fr&e%ds, d! %!t ha*e the ab&l&ty t! $"t !"t the flaes !% the&r !(% !rdec&s&*ely (&% !% the&r !(%, a%d (!"ld ea% that (e ha*e t! start c!&%# &% a%d "s&%# !"r&l&tary $!(er t! settle sc!res A%d that (!"ld be &% the &%terest %e&ther !f the U%&ted States%!r !f the +&ddle ast:

O%e !f the !st destr"ct&*e f!rces &% the +&ddle ast, Obaa bel&e*es, &s tr&bal&s)af!rce %! $res&de%t ca% %e"tral&7e Tr&bal&s, ade a%&fest &% the re*ers&!% t! sect, creed,cla%, a%d *&lla#e by the des$erate c&t&7e%s !f fa&l&%# states, &s the s!"rce !f "ch !f the+"sl& +&ddle ast's $r!bles, a%d &t &s a%!ther s!"rce !f h&s fatal&s Obaa has dee$

res$ect f!r the destr"ct&*e res&l&e%ce !f tr&bal&s)$art !f h&s e!&r,#reams From "yFather, c!%cer%s the (ay &% (h&ch tr&bal&s &% $!stc!l!%&al .e%ya hel$ed r"&% h&s father'sl&fe)(h&ch #!es s!e d&sta%ce &% e4$la&%&%# (hy he &s s! fast&d&!"s ab!"t a*!&d&%#e%ta%#lee%ts &% tr&bal c!%fl&cts

9It &s l&terally &% y DA t! be s"s$&c&!"s !f tr&bal&s,: he t!ld e 9I "%dersta%d the tr&bal&$"lse, a%d ack%!(led#e the $!(er !f tr&bal d&*&s&!% I'*e bee% %a*at&%# tr&bal d&*&s&!%sy (h!le l&fe I% the e%d, &t's the s!"rce !f a l!t !f destr"ct&*e acts:

W6I?F?YIGTO."ala ?"$"r (&th the $res&de%t, I recalled a $ass&%# refere%ce he had!%ce ade t! e ab!"t the 6!bbes&a% ar#"e%t f!r str!%# #!*er%e%t as a% a%t&d!te t! the

"%f!r#&*&%# state !f %at"re /he% Obaa l!!ks at s(athes !f the +&ddle ast, 6!bbes's9(ar !f all a#a&%st all: &s (hat he sees 9I ha*e a rec!#%&t&!% that "s ser*&%# as the?e*&atha% cla$s d!(% a%d taes s!e !f these &$"lses,: Obaa had sa&d S! I tr&ed t!re!$e% th&s c!%*ersat&!% (&th a% "%f!rt"%ately $r!l&4 5"est&!% ab!"t, a!%# !ther th&%#s,9the 6!bbes&a% %!t&!% that $e!$le !r#a%&7e thesel*es &%t! c!llect&*es t! sta*e !ff the&rs"$ree fear, (h&ch &s death:

Be% Rh!des a%d -!sh"a ar%est, the /h&te 6!"se s$!kesa%, (h! (ere seated !% a c!"cht! the s&de !f Obaa's desk !%Air Force One, c!"ld barely s"$$ress the&r a"see%t aty d&sc"rs&*e%ess I $a"sed a%d sa&d, 9I bet &f I asked that &% a $ress c!%fere%ce yc!llea#"es (!"ld "st thr!( e !"t !f the r!!:

9I (!"ld be really &%t! &t,: Obaa sa&d, 9b"t e*eryb!dy else (!"ld be r!ll&%# the&r eyes:

Rh!des &%terected= 9/hy ca%'t (e #et the bastards@: That 5"est&!%, the !%e $"t t! the$res&de%t by the re$!rter at the $ress c!%fere%ce &% T"rkey, had bec!e a t!$&c !fsard!%&c c!%*ersat&!% d"r&%# the tr&$

I t"r%ed t! the $res&de%t= 9/ell, yeah, a%d als!, (hy ca%'t (e #et the bastards@:


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6e t!!k the f&rst 5"est&!%

9?!!k, I a %!t !f the *&e( that h"a% be&%#s are &%here%tly e*&l,: he sa&d 9I bel&e*e thatthere's !re #!!d tha% bad &% h"a%&ty A%d &f y!" l!!k at the traect!ry !f h&st!ry, I a!$t&&st&c

9I bel&e*e that !*erall, h"a%&ty has bec!e less *&!le%t, !re t!lera%t, health&er, betterfed, !re e$athet&c, !re able t! a%a#e d&ffere%ce B"t &t's h"#ely "%e*e% A%d (hathas bee% clear thr!"#h!"t the 20th a%d 21st ce%t"r&es &s that the $r!#ress (e ake &% s!c&al!rder a%d ta&%# !"r baser &$"lses a%d steady&%# !"r fears ca% be re*ersed *ery 5"&cklyS!c&al !rder starts break&%# d!(% &f $e!$le are "%der $r!f!"%d stress The% the defa"lt$!s&t&!% &s tr&be)"sLthe, a h!st&l&ty t!(ard the "%fa&l&ar !r the "%k%!(%:

6e c!%t&%"ed, 9Rht %!(, acr!ss the #l!be, y!"'re see&%# $laces that are "%der#!&%#se*ere stress beca"se !f #l!bal&7at&!%, beca"se !f the c!ll&s&!% !f c"lt"res br!"#ht ab!"t bythe I%ter%et a%d s!c&al ed&a, beca"se !f scarc&t&es)s!e !f (h&ch (&ll be attr&b"table t!

cl&ate cha%#e !*er the %e4t se*eral decades)beca"se !f $!$"lat&!% #r!(th A%d &% th!se$laces, the +&ddle ast be&%# 4h&b&t A, the defa"lt $!s&t&!% f!r a l!t !f f!lks &s t! !r#a%&7ethtly &% the tr&be a%d t! $"sh back !r str&ke !"t a#a&%st th!se (h! are d&ffere%t

9A #r!"$ l&ke ISI?&s the d&st&llat&!% !f e*ery (!rst &$"lse al!%# these l&%es The %!t&!%that (e are a sall #r!"$ that def&%es !"rsel*es $r&ar&ly by the de#ree t! (h&ch (e ca%k&ll !thers (h! are %!t l&ke "s, a%d atte$t&%# t! &$!se a r&d !rth!d!4y that $r!d"ces%!th&%#, that celebrates %!th&%#, that really &s c!%trary t! e*ery b&t !f h"a% $r!#ress)&t&%d&cates the de#ree t! (h&ch that k&%d !f e%tal&ty ca% st&ll take r!!t a%d #a&% adhere%ts &%the 21st ce%t"ry:

S! y!"r a$$rec&at&!% f!r tr&bal&s's $!(er akes y!" (a%t t! stay a(ay@, I asked 9I%!ther (!rds, (he% $e!$le say /hy d!%'t y!" "st #! #et the bastards@,' y!" ste$ back@:

9/e ha*e t! deter&%e the best t!!ls t! r!ll back th!se k&%ds !f att&t"des,: he sa&d 9Thereare #!&%# t! be t&es (here e&ther beca"se &t's %!t a d&rect threat t! "s !r beca"se (e "std!%'t ha*e the t!!ls &% !"r t!!lk&t t! ha*e a h"#e &$act that, tra#&cally, (e ha*e t! refra&%fr! "$&%# &% (&th b!th feet:

I asked Obaa (hether he (!"ld ha*e se%t the +ar&%es t! R(a%da &% 1; t! st!$ the#e%!c&de as &t (as ha$$e%&%#, had he bee% $res&de%t at the t&e 9G&*e% the s$eed (&th(h&ch the k&ll&%# t!!k $lace, a%d h!( l!%# &t takes t! cra%k "$ the ach&%ery !f the US#!*er%e%t, I "%dersta%d (hy (e d&d %!t act fast e%!"#h,: he sa&d 9!(, (e sh!"ld lear%fr! that I act"ally th&%k that R(a%da &s a% &%terest&%# test case beca"se &t's $!ss&ble)%!t#"ara%teed, b"t &t's $!ss&ble)that th&s (as a s&t"at&!% (here the 5"&ck a$$l&cat&!% !f f!rceht ha*e bee% e%!"#h:

6e related th&s t! Syr&a= 9Ir!%&cally, &t's $r!bably eas&er t! ake a% ar#"e%t that arelat&*ely sall f!rce &%serted 5"&ckly (&th &%ter%at&!%al s"$$!rt (!"ld ha*e res"lted &%a*ert&%# #e%!c&de !re s"ccessf"lly &% R(a%daP tha% &% Syr&a rht %!(, (here the de#reet! (h&ch the *ar&!"s #r!"$s are ared a%d harde%ed fhters a%d are s"$$!rted by a (h!le


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h!st !f e4ter%al act!rs (&th a l!t !f res!"rces re5"&res a "ch lar#er c!&te%t !ff!rces:

OBA+AAD+IISTRATIO OFFIIA?S ARGU that he has a c!$rehe%s&ble a$$r!ach t!fht&%# terr!r&s= a dr!%e a&r f!rce, S$ec&al F!rces ra&ds, a cla%dest&%e IAa&ded ary !f

10,000 rebels battl&%# &% Syr&a S! (hy d!es Obaa st"ble (he% e4$la&%&%# t! theAer&ca% $e!$le that he, t!!, cares ab!"t terr!r&s@ The T"rkey $ress c!%fere%ce, I t!ldh&, 9(as a !e%t f!r y!" as a $!l&t&c&a% t! say, Yeah, I hate the bastards t!!, a%d by the(ay, I amtak&%# !"t the bastards' : The easy th&%# t! d! (!"ld ha*e bee% t! reass"reAer&ca%s &% *&sceral ters that he (&ll k&ll the $e!$le (h! (a%t t! k&ll the D!es he feara k%eeerk react&!% &% the d&rect&!% !f a%!ther +&ddle ast &%*as&!%@ Or &s he "st&%alterably S$!ck&a%@

9*ery $res&de%t has stre%#ths a%d (eak%esses,: he a%s(ered 9A%d there &s %! d!"bt thatthere are t&es (here I ha*e %!t bee% atte%t&*e e%!"#h t! feel&%#s a%d e!t&!%s a%d $!l&t&cs&% c!"%&cat&%# (hat (e're d!&%# a%d h!( (e're d!&%# &t:

B"t f!r Aer&ca t! be s"ccessf"l &% lead&%# the (!rld, he c!%t&%"ed, 9I bel&e*e that (e ha*et! a*!&d be&%# s&$l&st&c I th&%k (e ha*e t! b"&ld res&l&e%ce a%d ake s"re that !"r$!l&t&cal debates are #r!"%ded &% real&ty It's %!t that I d!%'t a$$rec&ate the *al"e !f theater&% $!l&t&cal c!"%&cat&!%s8 &t's that the hab&ts (e)the ed&a, $!l&t&c&a%s)ha*e #!tte%&%t!, a%d h!( (e talk ab!"t these &ss"es, are s! detached s! !fte% fr! (hat (e %eed t! bed!&%# that f!r e t! sat&sfy the cable %e(s hy$efest (!"ld lead t! "s ak&%# (!rse a%d(!rse dec&s&!%s !*er t&e:

Obaa (&th -ack +a, the cha&ra% !f Al&baba, at the A


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AsAir Force Onebe#a% &ts desce%t t!(ard ."ala ?"$"r, the $res&de%t e%t&!%ed thes"ccessf"l USled eff!rt t! st!$ the b!la e$&de&c &% /est Afr&ca as a $!s&t&*e e4a$le!f steady, %!%hyster&cal a%a#ee%t !f a terr&fy&%# cr&s&s

9D"r&%# the c!"$le !f !%ths &% (h&ch e*eryb!dy (as s"re b!la (as #!&%# t! destr!y the

arth a%d there (as 2;LW c!*era#e !f b!la, &f I had fed the $a%&c !r &% a%y (ay strayedfr! 6ere are the facts, here's (hat %eeds t! be d!%e, here's h!( (e're ha%dl&%# &t, thel&kel&h!!d !f y!" #ett&%# b!la &s *ery sl&, a%d here's (hat (e %eed t! d! b!thd!est&cally a%d !*erseas t! sta$ !"t th&s e$&de&c,' : the% 9aybe $e!$le (!"ld ha*esa&d Obaa &s tak&%# th&s as ser&!"sly as he %eeds t! be' : B"t feed&%# the $a%&c by!*erreact&%# c!"ld ha*e sh"t d!(% tra*el t! a%d fr! three Afr&ca% c!"%tr&es that (erealready cr&$$l&%#ly $!!r, &% (ays that ht ha*e destr!yed the&r ec!%!&es)(h&ch (!"ldl&kely ha*e ea%t, a!%# !ther th&%#s, a rec"rre%ce !f b!la 6e added, 9It (!"ld ha*eals! ea%t that (e ht ha*e (asted a h"#e a!"%t !f res!"rces &% !"r $"bl&chealthsystes that %eed t! be de*!ted t! fl" *acc&%at&!%s a%d !ther th&%#s that act"ally k&ll$e!$le: &% lar#e %"bers &% Aer&ca

The $la%e la%ded The $res&de%t, lea%&%# back &% h&s !ff&ce cha&r (&th h&s acket !ff a%d h&st&e aske(, d&d %!t see t! %!t&ce O"ts&de, !% the tarac, I c!"ld see that (hat a$$eared t!be a lar#e $!rt&!% !f the +alays&a% Ared F!rces had assebled t! (elc!e h& As hec!%t&%"ed talk&%#, I be#a% t! (!rry that the (a&t&%# s!ld&ers a%d d%&tar&es (!"ld #et h!t9I th&%k (e're &% +alays&a,: I sa&d 9It sees t! be !"ts&de th&s $la%e:

6e c!%ceded that th&s (as tr"e, b"t seeed t! be &% %! r"sh, s! I $ressed h& ab!"t h&s$"bl&c react&!% t! terr!r&s= If he sh!(ed !re e!t&!%, (!"ld%'t that cal $e!$le d!(%rather tha% r&le the "$@

9I ha*e fr&e%ds (h! ha*e k&ds &%


35/47

U%&*ers&ty t! h"#e a$$la"se 6e ade s!e !$e%&%# rearks, the% chared h&s a"d&e%ce &%a% e4te%ded XA sess&!%

B"t th!se !f "s (atch&%# fr! the $ress sect&!% becae d&stracted by %e(s c!&%# acr!ss!"r $h!%es ab!"t a %e( &had&st attack, th&s !%e &% +al& Obaa, b"s&ly eser&7&%#

ad!r&%# As&a% e%tre$re%e"rs, had %! &dea O%ly (he% he #!t &%t! h&s l&!"s&%e (&th S"sa%R&ce d&d he #et the %e(s

US Abassad!r t! the U%&ted at&!%s Saa%tha


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9It's l&ke the 6earst astle,: I !bser*ed

9/ell, &t's a l!%# (ay fr! the 6a$t!% I%% &% Des +!&%es,: Obaa sa&d

S

9It's chea$, b"t &t (!rks,: Obaa sa&d 9/e're talk&%# t! these k&ds, a%d the% there's th&sattack #!&%# !%:

The s$l&tscree% 5"al&ty !f the day $r!$ted a c!%*ersat&!% ab!"t t(! rece%t eet&%#s he'dheld, !%e that #e%erated a!r &%ter%at&!%al c!%tr!*ersy a%d headl&%es, a%d !%e that d&d %!tThe !%e that dre( s! "ch atte%t&!%, I s"##ested, (!"ld "lt&ately be "d#ed lessc!%se5"e%t&al Th&s (as the G"lf s"&t &% +ay !f 201M at a$ Da*&d, ea%t t! !ll&fya cr!(d !f *&s&t&%# she&khs a%d $r&%ces (h! feared the &$e%d&%# Ira% deal The !thereet&%# t!!k $lace t(! !%ths later, &% the O*al Off&ce, bet(ee% Obaa a%d the #e%eralsecretary !f the H&et%aese !"%&st


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Obaa *&s&ts a ref"#ee ce%ter &% ."ala ?"$"r !% a t!"r thr!"#h S!"theast As&a last fall 6e

sees the re#&!% as !re &%te#ral t! Aer&ca's f"t"re tha% the +&ddle ast CS"sa% /alsh LA


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t! s&t there a%d l&ste% t! Orte#a:)Da%&el Orte#a, the rad&cal left&st $res&de%t !f &cara#"a)9ake a% h!"rl!%# ra%t a#a&%st the U%&ted States B"t "s be&%# there, %!t tak&%# all thatst"ff ser&!"sly)beca"se &t really (as%'t a threat t! "s:)hel$ed %e"tral&7e the re#&!%'s a%t&Aer&ca%&s

The $res&de%t's "%(&ll&%#%ess t! c!"%ter the ba&t&%# by Aer&ca% ad*ersar&es ca% feele!t&!%ally "%sat&sfy&%#, I sa&d, a%d I t!ld h& that e*ery s! !fte%, I'd l&ke t! see h& #&*eHlad&&r


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sae th&%# &% Syr&a, at e%!r!"s c!st t! the (ellbe&%# !f h&s !(% c!"%try A%d the %!t&!%that s!eh!( R"ss&a &s &% a str!%#er $!s&t&!% %!(, &% Syr&a !r &% Ukra&%e, tha% they (erebef!re they &%*aded Ukra&%e !r bef!re he had t! de$l!y &l&tary f!rces t! Syr&a &s t!f"%dae%tally &s"%dersta%d the %at"re !f $!(er &% f!re% affa&rs !r &% the (!rld#e%erally Real $!(er ea%s y!" ca% #et (hat y!" (a%t (&th!"t ha*&%# t! e4ert *&!le%ce

R"ss&a (as "ch !re $!(erf"l (he% Ukra&%e l!!ked l&ke a% &%de$e%de%t c!"%try b"t (asa kle$t!cracy that he c!"ld $"ll the str&%#s !%:

Obaa's the!ry here &s s&$le= Ukra&%e &s a c!re R"ss&a% &%terest b"t %!t a% Aer&ca% !%e,s! R"ss&a (&ll al(ays be able t! a&%ta&% escalat!ry d!&%a%ce there

9The fact &s that Ukra&%e, (h&ch &s a %!%ATOc!"%try, &s #!&%# t! be *"l%erable t! &l&taryd!&%at&!% by R"ss&a %! atter (hat (e d!,: he sa&d

I asked Obaa (hether h&s $!s&t&!% !% Ukra&%e (as real&st&c !r fatal&st&c

9It's real&st&c,: he sa&d 9B"t th&s &s a% e4a$le !f (here (e ha*e t! be *ery clear ab!"t(hat !"r c!re &%terests are a%d (hat (e are (&ll&%# t! #! t! (ar f!r A%d at the e%d !f theday, there's al(ays #!&%# t! be s!e ab"&ty: 6e the% !ffered "$ a cr&t&5"e he had heardd&rected a#a&%st h&, &% !rder t! k%!ck &t d!(% 9I th&%k that the best ar#"e%t y!" ca%ake !% the s&de !f th!se (h! are cr&t&cs !f y f!re% $!l&cy &s that the $res&de%t d!es%'te4$l!&t ab"&ty e%!"#h 6e d!es%'t aybe react &% (ays that ht ca"se $e!$le t!th&%k, +ow( this guy might be a little cra,y:

9The cra7y &4!%' a$$r!ach,: I sa&d= !%f"se a%d frhte% y!"r e%e&es by ak&%# theth&%k y!"'re ca$able !f c!&tt&%# &rrat&!%al acts

9B"t let's e4a&%e the &4!% the!ry,: he sa&d 9S! (e dr!$$ed !re !rd%a%ce !%ab!d&a a%d ?a!s tha% !% "r!$e &% /!rld /ar II, a%d yet, "lt&ately, &4!% (&thdre(,.&ss&%#er (e%t t!


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the dec&s&!% ak&%# !f R"ss&a !r h&%a &s c!%trary t! all the e*&de%ce (e ha*e see% !*erthe last M0 years:

Obaa (e%t !% t! say that the bel&ef &% the $!ss&b&l&t&es !f $r!ected t!"#h%ess &s r!!ted &%9yth!l!#&es: ab!"t R!%ald Rea#a%'s f!re% $!l&cy

9If y!" th&%k ab!"t, let's say, the Ira% h!sta#e cr&s&s, there &s a %arrat&*e that has bee%$r!!ted t!day by s!e !f the Re$"bl&ca% ca%d&dates that the day Rea#a% (as elected,beca"se he l!!ked t!"#h, the Ira%&a%s dec&ded, /e better t"r% !*er these h!sta#es,' : hesa&d 9I% fact (hat had ha$$e%ed (as that there (as a l!%# %e#!t&at&!% (&th the Ira%&a%sa%d beca"se they s! d&sl&ked arter)e*e% th!"#h the %e#!t&at&!%s had bee% c!$leted)they held th!se h!sta#es "%t&l the day Rea#a% #!t elected Rea#a%'s $!st"re, h&s rhet!r&c,etc, had %!th&%# t! d! (&th the&r release /he% y!" th&%k !f the &l&tary act&!%s thatRea#a% t!!k, y!" ha*e Gre%ada)(h&ch &s hard t! ar#"e hel$ed !"r ab&l&ty t! sha$e (!rlde*e%ts, alth!"#h &t (as #!!d $!l&t&cs f!r h& back h!e Y!" ha*e the Ira%!%tra affa&r, &%(h&ch (e s"$$!rted rht(&%# $ara&l&tar&es a%d d&d %!th&%# t! e%ha%ce !"r &a#e &%

e%tral Aer&ca, a%d &t (as%'t s"ccessf"l at all: 6e re&%ded e that Rea#a%'s #reat f!e,Da%&el Orte#a, &s t!day the "%re$e%ta%t $res&de%t !f &cara#"a

Obaa als! c&ted Rea#a%'s dec&s&!% t! al!st &ed&ately $"ll US f!rces fr! ?eba%!%after 2;1 ser*&cee% (ere k&lled &% a 6e7b!llah attack &% 1J3 9A$$are%tly all these th&%#sreally hel$ed "s #a&% cred&b&l&ty (&th the R"ss&a%s a%d the h&%ese,: beca"se 9that's the%arrat&*e that &s t!ld,: he sa&d sarcast&cally 9!(, I act"ally th&%k that R!%ald Rea#a% had a#reat s"ccess &% f!re% $!l&cy, (h&ch (as t! rec!#%&7e the !$$!rt"%&ty that G!rbache*$rese%ted a%d t! e%#a#e &% e4te%s&*e d&$l!acy)(h&ch (as r!"%dly cr&t&c&7ed by s!e !fthe sae $e!$le (h! %!( "se R!%ald Rea#a% t! $r!!te the %!t&!% that (e sh!"ld #!ar!"%d b!b&%# $e!$le:

I A OHRSATIOat the e%d !f -a%"ary, I asked the $res&de%t t! descr&be f!r e thethreats he (!rr&es ab!"t !st as he $re$ares, &% the c!&%# !%ths, t! ha%d !ff $!(er t!h&s s"ccess!r

9As I s"r*ey the %e4t 20 years, cl&ate cha%#e (!rr&es e $r!f!"%dly beca"se !f theeffects that &t has !% all the !ther $r!bles that (e face,: he sa&d 9If y!" start see&%# !rese*ere dr!"#ht8 !re s%&f&ca%t fa&%e8 !re d&s$lacee%t fr! the I%d&a% s"bc!%t&%e%ta%d c!astal re#&!%s &% Afr&ca a%d As&a8 the c!%t&%"&%# $r!bles !f scarc&ty, ref"#ees,$!*erty, d&sease)th&s akes e*ery !ther $r!ble (e'*e #!t (!rse That's ab!*e a%dbey!%d "st the e4&ste%t&al &ss"es !f a $la%et that starts #ett&%# &%t! a bad feedback l!!$:

Terr!r&s, he sa&d, &s als! a l!%#ter $r!ble 9(he% c!b&%ed (&th the $r!ble !f fa&ledstates:

/hat c!"%try d!es he c!%s&der the #reatest challe%#e t! Aer&ca &% the c!&%# decades@9I% ters !f trad&t&!%al #reatstate relat&!%s, I d! bel&e*e that the relat&!%sh&$ bet(ee% theU%&ted States a%d h&%a &s #!&%# t! be the !st cr&t&cal,: he sa&d 9If (e #et that rht a%dh&%a c!%t&%"es !% a $eacef"l r&se, the% (e ha*e a $art%er that &s #r!(&%# &% ca$ab&l&ty a%d


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shar&%# (&th "s the b"rde%s a%d res$!%s&b&l&t&es !f a&%ta&%&%# a% &%ter%at&!%al !rder Ifh&%a fa&ls8 &f &t &s %!t able t! a&%ta&% a traect!ry that sat&sf&es &ts $!$"lat&!% a%d has t!res!rt t! %at&!%al&s as a% !r#a%&7&%# $r&%c&$le8 &f &t feels s! !*er(heled that &t %e*ertakes !% the res$!%s&b&l&t&es !f a c!"%try &ts s&7e &% a&%ta&%&%# the &%ter%at&!%al !rder8 &f &t*&e(s the (!rld !%ly &% ters !f re#&!%al s$heres !f &%fl"e%ce)the% %!t !%ly d! (e see the

$!te%t&al f!r c!%fl&ct (&th h&%a, b"t (e (&ll f&%d !"rsel*es ha*&%# !re d&ff&c"lty deal&%#(&th these !ther challe%#es that are #!&%# t! c!e:

+a%y $e!$le, I %!ted, (a%t the $res&de%t t! be !re f!rcef"l &% c!%fr!%t&%# h&%a,es$ec&ally &% the S!"th h&%a Sea 6&llary l&%t!%, f!r !%e, has bee% heard t! say &% $r&*atesett&%#s, 9I d!%'t (a%t y #ra%dch&ldre% t! l&*e &% a (!rld d!&%ated by the h&%ese:

9I'*e bee% *ery e4$l&c&t &% say&%# that (e ha*e !re t! fear fr! a (eake%ed, threate%edh&%a tha% a s"ccessf"l, r&s&%# h&%a,: Obaa sa&d 9I th&%k (e ha*e t! be f&r (hereh&%a's act&!%s are "%der&%&%# &%ter%at&!%al &%terests, a%d &f y!" l!!k at h!( (e'*e!$erated &% the S!"th h&%a Sea, (e ha*e bee% able t! !b&l&7e !st !f As&a t! &s!late

h&%a &% (ays that ha*e s"r$r&sed h&%a, fra%kly, a%d ha*e *ery "ch ser*ed !"r &%terest &%stre%#the%&%# !"r all&a%ces:

A (eak, fla&l&%# R"ss&a c!%st&t"tes a threat as (ell, th!"#h %!t 5"&te a t!$t&er threat9U%l&ke h&%a, they ha*e de!#ra$h&c $r!bles, ec!%!&c str"ct"ral $r!bles, that (!"ldre5"&re %!t !%ly *&s&!% b"t a #e%erat&!% t! !*erc!e,: Obaa sa&d 9The $ath that


42/47

Obaa has steadfastly res&sted .erry's re5"ests, a%d sees t! ha*e #r!(% &$at&e%t (&thh&s l!bby&%# Rece%tly, (he% .erry ha%ded Obaa a (r&tte% !"tl&%e !f %e( ste$s t! br&%#!re $ress"re t! bear !% Assad, Obaa sa&d, 9Oh, a%!ther $r!$!sal@: Ad&%&strat&!%!ff&c&als ha*e t!ld e that H&ce


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c!%*ersat&!%s I had (&th at&!%al Sec"r&ty !"%c&l !ff&c&als !*er the $ast c!"$le !f !%ths,I se%sed a f!reb!d&%# that a% e*e%t)a%!ther Sa% Ber%ard&%!style attack, f!r &%sta%ce)(!"ld c!$el the U%&ted States t! take %e( a%d d&rect act&!% &% Syr&a F!r Obaa, th&s(!"ld be a %htare

If there had bee% %! Ira5, %! Af#ha%&sta%, a%d %! ?&bya, Obaa t!ld e, he ht be !rea$t t! take r&sks &% Syr&a 9A $res&de%t d!es %!t ake dec&s&!%s &% a *ac"" 6e d!es %!tha*e a bla%k slate A%y $res&de%t (h! (as th!"#htf"l, I bel&e*e, (!"ld rec!#%&7e that after!*er a decade !f (ar, (&th !blat&!%s that are st&ll t! th&s day re5"&r&%# #reat a!"%ts !fres!"rces a%d atte%t&!% &% Af#ha%&sta%, (&th the e4$er&e%ce !f Ira5, (&th the stra&%s that &t's$laced !% !"r &l&tary)a%y th!"#htf"l $res&de%t (!"ld hes&tate ab!"t ak&%# a re%e(edc!&te%t &% the e4act sae re#&!% !f the (!rld (&th s!e !f the e4act sae dy%a&csa%d the sae $r!bab&l&ty !f a% "%sat&sfact!ry !"tc!e:

Are y!" t!! ca"t&!"s@, I asked

9!,: he sa&d 9D! I th&%k that had (e %!t &%*aded Ira5 a%d (ere (e %!t st&ll &%*!l*ed &%se%d&%# b&ll&!%s !f d!llars a%d a %"ber !f &l&tary tra&%ers a%d ad*&sers &%t! Af#ha%&sta%,(!"ld I $!te%t&ally ha*e th!"#ht ab!"t tak&%# !% s!e add&t&!%al r&sk t! hel$ try t! sha$ethe Syr&a s&t"at&!%@ I d!%'t k%!(:

/hat has str"ck e &s that, e*e% as h&s secretary !f state (ar%s ab!"t a d&re, Syr&af"eled"r!$ea% a$!caly$se, Obaa has %!t recate#!r&7ed the c!"%try's c&*&l (ar as a t!$t&ersec"r&ty threat

Obaa's hes&tat&!% t! !&% the battle f!r Syr&a &s held !"t as $r!!f by h&s cr&t&cs that he &st!! %a&*e8 h&s dec&s&!% &% 2013 %!t t! f&re &ss&les &s $r!!f, they ar#"e, that he &s a bl"ffer

Th&s cr&t&5"e fr"strates the $res&de%t 9!b!dy reebers b&% ?ade% a%y!re,: he says9!b!dy talks ab!"t e !rder&%# 30,000 !re tr!!$s &%t! Af#ha%&sta%: The redl&%e cr&s&s,he sa&d, 9&s the $!&%t !f the &%*erted $yra&d "$!% (h&ch all !ther the!r&es rest:

O%e after%!!% &% late -a%"ary, as I (as lea*&%# the O*al Off&ce, I e%t&!%ed t! Obaa a!e%t fr! a% &%ter*&e( &% 2012 (he% he t!ld e that he (!"ld %!t all!( Ira% t! #a&%$!ssess&!% !f a %"clear (ea$!% 9Y!" sa&d, I' the $res&de%t !f the U%&ted States, I d!%'tbl"ff' :

6e sa&d, 9I d!%'t:

Sh!rtly after that &%ter*&e( f!"r years a#!, h"d Barak, (h! (as the% the defe%se &%&ster!f Israel, asked e (hether I th!"#ht Obaa's %!bl"ff $r!&se (as &tself a bl"ff Ia%s(ered that I f!"%d &t d&ff&c"lt t! &a#&%e that the leader !f the U%&ted States (!"ld bl"ffab!"t s!eth&%# s! c!%se5"e%t&al B"t Barak's 5"est&!% had stayed (&th e S! as I st!!d&% the d!!r(ay (&th the $res&de%t, I asked= 9/as &t a bl"ff@: I t!ld h& that fe( $e!$le %!(bel&e*e he act"ally (!"ld ha*e attacked Ira% t! kee$ &t fr! #ett&%# a %"clear (ea$!%


44/47

9That's &%terest&%#,: he sa&d, %!%c!&ttally

I started t! talk= 9D! y!"):

6e &%terr"$ted 9I act"ally (!"ld ha*e,: he sa&d, ea%&%# that he (!"ld ha*e str"ck Ira%'s

%"clear fac&l&t&es 9If I sa( the break !"t:

6e added, 9!(, the ar#"e%t that ca%'t be res!l*ed, beca"se &t's e%t&rely s&t"at&!%al, (as(hat c!%st&t"tes the #ett&%#: the b!b 9Th&s (as the ar#"e%t I (as ha*&%# (&th B&b&eta%yah": eta%yah" (a%ted Obaa t! $re*e%t Ira% fr! be&%# ca$able !f b"&ld&%# ab!b, %!t erely fr! $!ssess&%# a b!b

9Y!" (ere rht t! bel&e*e &t,: the $res&de%t sa&d A%d the% he ade h&s key $!&%t 9Th&s(as &% the cate#!ry !f a% Aer&ca% &%terest:

I (as re&%ded the% !f s!eth&%# Derek h!llet, a f!rer at&!%al Sec"r&ty !"%c&l

!ff&c&al, t!ld e= 9Obaa &s a #abler, %!t a bl"ffer:


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R"*e% Afa%ad!r

The $res&de%t has $laced s!e h"#e bets ?ast +ay, as he (as try&%# t! !*e the Ira%%"clear deal thr!"#h !%#ress, I t!ld h& that the a#reee%t (as ak&%# e %er*!"s 6&sres$!%se (as tell&%# 9?!!k, 20 years fr! %!(, I' st&ll #!&%# t! be ar!"%d, G!d (&ll&%#If Ira% has a %"clear (ea$!%, &t's y %ae !% th&s,: he sa&d 9I th&%k &t's fa&r t! say that &%


46/47

add&t&!% t! !"r $r!f!"%d %at&!%alsec"r&ty &%terests, I ha*e a $ers!%al &%terest &% l!ck&%# th&sd!(%:

I% the atter !f the Syr&a% re#&e a%d &ts Ira%&a% a%d R"ss&a% s$!%s!rs, Obaa has bet, a%dsees $re$ared t! c!%t&%"e bett&%#, that the $r&ce !f d&rect US act&!% (!"ld be hher tha%

the $r&ce !f &%act&!% A%d he &s sa%#"&%e e%!"#h t! l&*e (&th the $er&l!"s ab"&t&es !f h&sdec&s&!%s Th!"#h &% h&s !bel

Obaa has c!e t! a %"ber !f d!*eta&l&%# c!%cl"s&!%s ab!"t the (!rld, a%d ab!"tAer&ca's r!le &% &t The f&rst &s that the +&ddle ast &s %! l!%#er terr&bly &$!rta%t t!Aer&ca% &%terests The sec!%d &s that e*e% &f the +&ddle ast (ere s"r$ass&%#ly &$!rta%t,there (!"ld st&ll be l&ttle a% Aer&ca% $res&de%t c!"ld d! t! ake &t a better $lace The th&rd&s that the &%%ate Aer&ca% des&re t! f&4 the s!rts !f $r!bles that a%&fest thesel*es !stdrast&cally &% the +&ddle ast &%e*&tably leads t! (arfare, t! the deaths !f US s!ld&ers, a%dt! the e*e%t"al he!rrha#&%# !f US cred&b&l&ty a%d $!(er The f!"rth &s that the (!rldca%%!t aff!rd t! see the d&&%&she%t !f US $!(er -"st as the leaders !f se*eralAer&ca% all&es ha*e f!"%d Obaa's leadersh&$ &%ade5"ate t! the tasks bef!re h&, heh&self has f!"%d (!rld leadersh&$ (a%t&%#= #l!bal $art%ers (h! !fte% lack the *&s&!% a%dthe (&ll t! s$e%d $!l&t&cal ca$&tal &% $"rs"&t !f br!ad, $r!#ress&*e #!als, a%d ad*ersar&es(h! are %!t, &% h&s &%d, as rat&!%al as he &s Obaa bel&e*es that h&st!ry has s&des, a%d thatAer&ca's ad*ersar&es)a%d s!e !f &ts $"tat&*e all&es)ha*e s&t"ated thesel*es !% the(r!%# !%e, a $lace (here tr&bal&s, f"%dae%tal&s, sectar&a%&s, a%d &l&tar&s st&llfl!"r&sh /hat they d!%'t "%dersta%d &s that h&st!ry &s be%d&%# &% h&s d&rect&!%


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9The ce%tral ar#"e%t &s that by kee$&%# Aer&ca fr! &ers&%# &tself &% the cr&ses !f the+&ddle ast, the f!re%$!l&cy establ&she%t bel&e*es that the $res&de%t &s $rec&$&tat&%# !"rdecl&%e,: Be% Rh!des t!ld e 9B"t the $res&de%t h&self takes the !$$!s&te *&e(, (h&ch &sthat !*ere4te%s&!% &% the +&ddle ast (&ll "lt&ately har !"r ec!%!y, har !"r ab&l&ty t!l!!k f!r !ther !$$!rt"%&t&es a%d t! deal (&th !ther challe%#es, a%d, !st &$!rta%t,

e%da%#er the l&*es !f Aer&ca% ser*&ce ebers f!r reas!%s that are %!t &% the d&rectAer&ca% %at&!%alsec"r&ty &%terest:

If y!" are a s"$$!rter !f the $res&de%t, h&s strate#y akes e&%e%t se%se= D!"ble d!(% &%th!se $arts !f the (!rld (here s"ccess &s $la"s&ble, a%d l&&t Aer&ca's e4$!s"re t! therest 6&s cr&t&cs bel&e*e, h!(e*er, that $r!bles l&ke th!se $rese%ted by the +&ddle astd!%'t s!l*e thesel*es)that, (&th!"t Aer&ca% &%ter*e%t&!%, they etastas&7e

At the !e%t, Syr&a, (here h&st!ry a$$ears t! be be%d&%# t!(ard #reater cha!s, $!ses the!st d&rect challe%#e t! the $res&de%t's (!rld*&e(

Ge!r#e / B"sh (as als! a #abler, %!t a bl"ffer 6e (&ll be reebered harshly f!r theth&%#s he d&d &% the +&ddle ast Barack Obaa &s #abl&%# that he (&ll be "d#ed (ell f!rthe th&%#s he d&d%'t d!

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

JEFFREY GOLDBERGis a national correspondent forThe Atlanticand a recipient of the

National Magazine Award for Reporting. He is the author ofPrisoners: A Story of Friendship

and Terror.
http://www.theatlantic.com/author/jeffrey-goldberg/http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ISBN=0375726705/theatlanticmonthA/ref=nosim/http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ISBN=0375726705/theatlanticmonthA/ref=nosim/http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ISBN=0375726705/theatlanticmonthA/ref=nosim/http://www.theatlantic.com/author/jeffrey-goldberg/http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ISBN=0375726705/theatlanticmonthA/ref=nosim/http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ISBN=0375726705/theatlanticmonthA/ref=nosim/

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