the only way is mobile: drug forecasting in the age of personalized medicine
TRANSCRIPT
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The only way is mobile
Robert Dossin
Client Solutions Director
SKIM
Drug forecasting in the age
of personalised medicine
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The only way is mobile
An innovative approach to drug forecasting –
in-the-moment mobile research enables
collection of robust data close to the
point of prescription
Drug forecasting in the age of personalised medicine
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Setting the context…Crowded markets, increasingly diverse patient groups
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Setting the context…Crowded markets, increasingly diverse patient groups
Forecast gets
more difficult
No more
generalisation
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Conventional methods don’t cut itOver-generalisation or excessive cognitive burden compromise data
Too simple Too complex
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- Emotions wear off
- Recall fades
- Answer solely based on rational factors (e.g. hard clinical facts)
+ Based on more softer factors
+ Easier to recall why
+ Answer based on a combination of soft (irrational) and hard (rational) factors
OCCURRENCE MEASUREMENT
OCCURRENCE MEASUREMENT
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The only way
is mobile
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Account for complexity simplySimplify data collection, but account for market complexity
1 2 3 4
15 minute
online survey
Forms via
Direct mail
Use mobile app
in the moment
Audio recording
after 2 weeks
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Simple & quick
to complete
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Actual patients, no generalisationCollection of focused, relevant information
Individual, unique & representative data
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Valid outcomesCollection of focused, relevant information
16%
43%
17%
13%
38%16%
EGFR+ EGFR+
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3%
4%4%
18%
8%
44%
16%
EGFR+
12%
8%
3%
4%4%
16%
6%
37%
6%
EGFR+
Docetaxel mono
Alimta (+/- cis/carbo)
Other chemo
Tarceva (+/- cis/carbo)
Iressa (+/- cis/carbo)
Giotrif mono
Xalkori mono
Clinical Trials
Other
Product A
Product B
Product D
Product E
Core forecast data gatheredRobust forecasting based on high sample of cases
All 4 new
products
launched
Patient share
s
Future Market Future Market
Only A & E
launched
Current Market
7%
5%3%
4%4%
15%
5%
34%
6%
EGFR+
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Patient data gives further insightCollection of focused, relevant information
10%4%
13%
25%
11% 9%
17% 26%
25%
22%
25%
18% 21%
42% 34%
50%
67%
38%
21%
31%
31%36%
13% 11% 13%
50%
39%
11% 10% 7%
32%
22%
7%
18%34%
64%
39%35%
21%Product E
Product D
Product B
Product A
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Qualitative data provides depthCollection of focused, relevant information
60%
40%
0%
0%
0%
13%
(Very) Good OS/PFS
Good safety profile
Good experience inMelanoma
No Docetaxel: wideapplicability
It is a single agent
Oral formulationadvantageous
17%
7%
0%
0%
0%
0%
33%
17%
0%
0%
0%
0%
33%
20%
23%
10%
13%
0%
Product E Product A Product B Product D
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Qualitative data provides depthInsight into drivers of choice
Product E
efficacious
Product D
innovative
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Benefits…
Robust data – patient records
without associated problems
Applications in market potential,
segmentation, Tx pathway
Less post-rationalisation,
responses close to point of prescription
Accounts for indications with wide variety of patient types,
or highly individualised treatment (e.g. biomarker-based treatment)
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Practical considerations
Some
over-recruitment
needed
Incremental
incentives to
maximise
participation
Not necessarily
cheaper than
current methods
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With these answers you can
do the following
Model future
scenariosGenerate
ideas
Update your
product sales
forecast
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Impact on communications
Use
data in
comms
80%
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Impact on positioning
Clear patient types Differentiation Positioning
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increase in
confidence
at every level
Exp
lan
ati
on
Pro
du
ct
Cu
sto
mer
en
gag
em
en
t
Inp
uts
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Questions?