the overall energy ecosystem in australia and how it is transforming
TRANSCRIPT
THE OVERALL ENERGY ECOSYSTEM IN AUSTRALIA AND HOW ITS TRANSFORMING
DISRUPTION AND THE ENERGY INDUSTRY
IAN MCLEOD
SYDNEY
30/08/2016
INTERESTING TIMES
• Sheep get tired cheap energy grows GDP expensive energy constrains
GDP
• High gas prices, international parity and moratoriums on developments
• Ownership – NSW network leases, Queensland mergers & W.A?
• Competition – government vs private, retail vs networks vs others, traditional
vs non traditional energy solutions, economics vs social vs climate
• A federal election with a low profile on carbon
• Questions on industry model and changes to regulation
• Energy users starting to find a voice on energy policy
FROM CHAOS
Why?
• Lack of Vision & Planning
• Poor policy
• Lack of information, transparency,
collaboration & alignment
leading to duplicated investment
• Increased security standards
• Reduced energy volume
• Increased cost of capital
• Incentives & cross subsidies
• Metering mandateSource: AER- State Of The Energy Market 2015
………TO TODAY,
……..TO WHAT ENERGY FUTURE?
?
A CHAOTIC OR ORDERLY TRANSITION?
Reference: Audience survey: ABB Enterprise Software Users Conference – 26th July 2016
CURRENT TARGETS & POLICY DRIVERS: FEDERAL
Policy & Strategy
Carbon Reduction
• 5% off 2000 levels by 2020
• 25-28% off 2005 levels by 2030
Renewable Energy
• 33,000 GWH by 2020
National Energy Productivity Pan
• 40% increase by 2030
National Strategy On Energy Efficiency
Northern Australia Plan
Power Of Choice
Resources
Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA)
• $2.5B funding to 2022
Emissions Reduction Fund
• $1.7B committed of $2.5B funding
• Third auction average price $10.23 per tonne
Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility
• $5B in concessional funding
Clean Energy Finance Corporation
• Clean Energy Innovation Fund 50/50 renewables/efficiency
CURRENT TARGETS & POLICY DRIVERS: STATES
State Carbon Renewable Efficiency Other
New South Wales 20% by 2020 • Energy Efficiency Scheme
• 5% pa to 2020
Victoria 40% by 2025 • Victorian Energy Efficiency Target to
2029. 5.4m VEEC’s 2016
• $20m new energy jobs fund
Queensland 50% by 2030 • 1M solar rooftops or 3000MW of solar
• Govt support for 60MW large scale
South Australia 0 by 2050 50% by 2025 • Dwellings 15% & Govt 30% by 2020
• Retailer Energy Efficiency Scheme
• National Energy Efficient Building
Project
• $10B target for Low Carbon Generation
by 2025
Western Australia • 500,000 LGC’s tendered by Synergy to
meet 20% renewable target. Source
Aust
Northern Territory
Tasmania • $10m energy efficiency loan
scheme
• Predominantly renewable (hydro) now
ACT 100% by 2020 • Energy Efficiency Improvement
Scheme
• 2016-20 8.6% reduction pa
• 36MW of energy storage to 5000 homes
by 2020
IS THERE APPETITE FOR GREAT ALIGNMENT?
Reference: Audience survey: ABB Enterprise Software Users Conference – 26th July 2016
PRIORITIES VS BALANCE
Reference: Audience survey: ABB Enterprise Software Users Conference – 26th July 2016
DEMAND & SUPPLY: CONSUMPTION
• 5 years of decline
• Steadied in 2014-15
• Influenced by:
• Reduced aluminium smelting
• Reduced steel making
• Reduced car manufacturing
• Substitution (solar & hot water)
• Price
• Efficiency
• Education & Behaviour
DEMAND & SUPPLY: INEFFICIENT
• Inefficient
• Loads
• Price Signals
• Load curves &
getting worse
• Lack of flexibility
• Lack of control
• Lack of appropriate
metering
Peak Increasing
DEMAND & SUPPLY: PEAK
• Maximum demand declining except for Queensland, which is due to LNG projects
• South Australia has peakiest demand and the highest exposure to intermittent
supply leading to greater supply chain inefficiencies
Source: AER- State Of The Energy Market 2015
DEMAND & SUPPLY: CAPACITY
• Over supply of generation
• 2011-15 generation removed
exceeded new installed
• Without further investment
AEMO forecast risk of supply
shortfalls breaching reliability
standards by 2019-20 (S.A)
• Abolition of carbon pricing
saw some coal return & gas
mothballed
Source: AER- State Of The Energy Market 2015
DEMAND & SUPPLY: FUEL
• In 2015 14.6% of supply came from
renewables
• We are just under half way to
achieving 33,000 GWh Renewable
Energy Target
Source: CEC- Clean Energy Australia Report 2015
DEMAND & SUPPLY: FUEL
• Hydro decreased due
to removal of Carbon
Pricing & drought
• Consequence was
increase generation
from fossil fuels
Source: AER- State Of The Energy Market 2015
• Significant wind and
solar rooftops in South
Australia
• High residential roof top
penetration in
Queensland
• Lack of Hydro resources
• No nuclear
DEMAND & SUPPLY: FUEL - RENEWABLES
Source: CEC- Clean Energy Australia Report 2015
Penetration: % Dwellings with PV
• Queensland highest penetration
in the world
• Initial growth fuelled by subsidies
Source: Australian PV Institute (APVI) Solar Map, funded by the Australian Renewable Energy Agency, accessed from pv-map.apvi.org.au on 22 July 2016.
Installed PV Generation Capacity
• 5.4 GW of capacity
• Larger scale now accelerating
• RET certificate price increasing
>100kW
>10kW<100kW
<10kW
DEMAND & SUPPLY: FUEL – RENEWABLES - SOLAR
• Queensland’s 44 cent
Premium Feed-In Tariff
liability is estimated @ $4.4B
• Queensland Competition
Authority estimated it
added $89 to the average
residential bill for 2015/16
Source: Queensland Productivity Commission Draft Report: Solar Feed-in Pricing in Queensland March 2016
UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCE
• PV hasn’t led to an ability to
reduce network capacity &
investment
• It has resulted in increase
network investment
Source: Queensland Productivity Commission Draft Report: Solar Feed-in Pricing in Queensland March 2016
UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCE
• Higher security and reliability
standards introduced in
Queensland following Brisbane
storms in 2004 (Somerville
Report) led to increase
investment in capacity &
redundancy
• Reduced demand: Energy
Conservation & Demand
Management Program
commenced 2008
• Utilisation down Source: Queensland Productivity Commission Draft Report: Solar Feed-in Pricing in Queensland March 2016
UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCE
A CLEANER FUTURE
Australia is expected to:
• surpass its 2020 abatement target by
78Mt CO2e
• achieve 64 to 65% decrease in emissions
per $ of GDP; &
• 50 to 52% per capita between 2005 &
2030
Source: Australian Government, Department of the Environment: Fact Sheet
A CLEANER FUTURE: INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE
• Emissions intensity fell by 4.7% during the two years carbon pricing was in
place
• With lower NEM consumption the total fall was 10.3%
• Contributed to supply constraints and security issues in Tasmania following
loss of Bass Link, drought and low storage dam levels
• Following removal of the carbon price emissions grew by 4.3% to 30 June
2015
• The impact of new LNG projects in Queensland may raise current emissions
WHOLESALE MARKETS
• Volatile and high wholesale prices in
South Australia and Queensland
• S.A. caused by extreme temperatures,
high proportions of intermittent
generation, closure of thermal plant, high
gas prices, transmission restraint and lack
of redundancy
• Queensland influenced by new LNG
loadsSource: Financial Review 16-17 July 2016 Pg 6
NETWORKS
• Increased private ownership/control
• Reduced financing cost
• Revenue caps – disconnecting volume
from revenue
• Probabilistic security standards
• Lower augmentation & higher age
replacement
• Lower network charges per customer
RETAIL
• Retail prices fell in NSW & Qld & SA
• Retail price increased in Vic & Tas
• Hardship increasing but complaints down
• Focus acquisition to retention = less churn
Source: AER: State Of The Energy Market 2015
• Increased vertical integration & upstream
interests in gas
• Competition consolidating: AGL, Energy
Australia & Origin increasing market share
FORECAST FUTURE COST
27
• Relatively flat network prices
• Influenced by storage & ability
to manage demand
• Generation costs increase
• GHG settlement mechanism
from 2020
Source: ENA – Network Transformation Roadmap
STORAGE
• Morgan Stanley forecast 1 million batteries or
6GWhs by 2020 and significant cost reductions
• End of Premium FIT in NSW will drive up demand
but Qld’s Premium FIT will suppress demand
• Network Services are highly valued but
there are cheaper resources
• I see more demand following supply value
ELECTRIFICATION OF TRANSPORT
• Potential for emissions
reduction
• No zero tail pipe drive
• Slow progress in Australia
• Range anxiety
• Should be plug and play
• Smarter ways to transact
needed
TARIFF REFORM
• Smarter Tariffs are about
balanced supply & demand
solutions
• Seasonal Time of Use
Demand (SToUD) delivers the
greatest long term benefits
• Greater drive needed from
governments and market
participants
• Retail only led deployment of
smart meters is constraining
transformation
Source: ENA – Network Transformation Roadmap
ENERGY PRODUCTIVITY
31
• Finally we have a focus on productivity @
40% reduction by 2030
• Opportunities in many sectors
Source: National Energy Productivity Plan, December 2015
A CLEANER, SECURE & AFFORDABLE FUTURE
Reference: Audience survey: ABB Enterprise Software Users Conference – 26th July 2016
A CLEANER & PRODUCTIVE ENERGY FUTURE
To achieve this we need:
• balanced & agreed objectives – cleaner, secure and affordable – NEO?
• a destination – future state vision
• a pathway to get there - road map
• an efficient and liquid market
• with efficient prices signals – smart tariffs;
• that encourages the deployment of the least cost resources; and
• to leverage the significant latent value in existing resources
• to recognise that with no nuclear, insufficient hydro resources and gas constraints
that high short term renewable targets will impact affordability – time is our friend
• to be careful subsidies, incentives and rebates don’t distort & become a barrier
• to move away from supply following demand to markets and control
A CLEANER & PRODUCTIVE ENERGY FUTURE
• Some believe the solution to high prices, over
supply and underutilised resources is to invest
in even more resources i.e. batteries and
more transmission
• We need to use the lowest cost resources first
and therefore a market approach is required
to ensure an affordable energy future
• Connectivity, control, data, contracts and
tariffs will be key attributes of the market
enabling competing resources to be
deployed
Supply Storage
Demand
Market
A CLEANER & PRODUCTIVE ENERGY FUTURE
Networks will serve a higher order “Purpose”
• They are what connects us to our vast energy resources
• They provide us choice
• They provide security
• They provide capacity
• They enable us to effectively integrate renewables for a cleaner energy
future
• And most importantly they enable an effective, efficient and very liquid
market open to all.
A CLEANER & PRODUCTIVE ENERGY FUTURE
• The network becomes the Platform on which customer and producer
applications and services are deployed within a market framework
• The liquid market provides price tension and drives innovation
• The liquid market provides competition between old approaches (build a
substation or generator) versus new market and technology based
solutions (tariff smart meter battery) therefore driving labour and
energy productivity
• The market owns electricity supply, not any particular stakeholder
• The customer is in control within an efficient and effective market
construct
A CLEANER & PRODUCTIVE ENERGY FUTURE
Looking around the world for some evidence to support the direction:
• RWE and EoN in Germany separating generation assets, talking customer
centricity and connectivity as key. Investing in new technology firms
• In the US some investor owned utilities are winding back long positions in
carbon based generation
• New York Public Service Commission initiate their Reforming the Energy Vision
(REV) program in April 2014 which is focused on a platform model (this was
after Ergon)
• New York PSC allows ConEd to recover revenue for $1.3B Advanced Metering
Infrastructure from 2015-2022. Reforming regulated revenue models.
ENERGY SUPPLY & GDP DIVERSIFICATION
Reference: Audience survey: ABB Enterprise Software Users Conference – 26th July 2016