The Palestinian Challenge

Between War and Negotiations

Militarized PL State

Foreign forces using PL

Terrorism and Rocket fire

PL State: Security Threat

Military Logic: Control Territory

Israel’s Security Dilemmas

What is the main threat?

Worsening Demographic Balance

Erosion of 2SS

Logic of Implosion

W/o PL State: Demographic Threat

Political Logic: Withdrawal

1

War in Gaza, Negotiations on WB

Negotiations

With Fatah

War

Against Hamas

Military Logic: Control Territory Political Logic: Withdraw

2

Is there a Palestinian Partner?

Negotiations

With Fatah

War

Against Hamas

Fatah Internally Weak

PA’s inability to fight terror

Hamas controls Gaza & PLC

Legitimacy of PLO?

Abbas and Fayyad may not deliver

3

Shelf Agreement

Abbas and Fayyad may not deliver

The Goal: Shelf Agreement

Easier to Achieve

Guarantee 2SS

Ensures Security Interests

4

Easier to Achieve

Guarantee 2SS

Ensures Security InterestsGaps too wide over Core Issues

Palestinian Inversion towards PL State

Hamas control in Gaza

Ethos of Struggle can foil

“Problematic” Ratification Process

Mindset Diverging Reality

2SS Being pushed to Moment of Truth when there is no ‘ripeness’

5

2SS Being pushed to Moment of Truth when there is no ‘ripeness’

An Attempt to Anchor the 2SS may Bury it

Calls for PA Dissolution End of Abu Mazen’s Political Career

6

Policy OptionsCreating a Safety Net

Calls for PA Dissolution End of Abu Mazen’s Political Career

Change the Agenda of Negotiations

Break all or nothing dynamic

Upgrading the PA

The “Fayyad-Blair” Axis

7

The War Against Hamas in Gaza

Leading the PNM;Destruction of Israel

Mission

Islamic State in Mandatory Palestine

Vision

No Clear Plan of Operation

Implosion Strategy

Strategy

War of Attrition

Military Asymmetry: Advantage

It’s all aboutSurvival

Death toll:Indication for Victory

Society’s Absorption Ability : Strategic Depth

Hamas

8

The War Against Hamas in Gaza

Its Simplicity Creates the Difficulty

Relevant when Israel Outside Gaza or Inside it

when Gaza is Independent or Occupied

Hamas Manages to Rule and to Fight

9

Implosion Strategy

Strategy

Difficult to create organizing logic against Hamas

Policy Options vis-à-vis Hamas

The Next Step?

Tahdiya – calm

Abbas’ position?

Only Temporary Solution: Hamas armament

Re-open Gaza’s crossings

Prisoners Swap?

Unity Government?

10

Difficult to create organizing logic against Hamas

Policy Options vis-à-vis Hamas

The Pessimists The Optimists

Military operation in Gaza is inevitable

Topple Hamas?

What about the day after?

Hamas could be partner for PSPB

PL. reunification first

Fatah rejects

11