The Pessimistic Induction

Kareem KhalifaDepartment of Philosophy

Middlebury College

History of Science

AntirealistRealist

Overview

I. Core realist ideasII. Realist argumentsIII. Reference & successIV. Approximate truth & success: downwardV. Approximate truth & success: upwardVI. Retention & convergenceVII.Circularity objection

I.

R1

R2

R3

R4

II. Realist arguments

A. Empirical Success B. Convergence

III. Reference & success

Targets P2: If the central terms in

scientific theories genuinely refer, those theories will generally

be empirically successful.

IV. Downward Path

Targets P1:If scientific theories are

approximately true, they will typically be

empirically successful.

V. Upward path

Targets P1:If scientific

theories are approximately true, they will

typically be empirically successful.

The Hit Parade• The crystalline spheres of ancient and medieval astronomy• The humoral theory of medicine• The effluvial theory of static electricity• ‘Castastrophist’ geology, including the Noah’s Flood• The phlogiston theory of chemistry• The caloric theory of heat• The vibratory theory of heat• The vital force theories of physiology• The electromagnetic aether• The optical aether• The theory of circular inertia• Theories of spontaneous generation

VI. Convergence & retention

R3: Earlier theories will be limiting cases of later theories.R4: Acceptable new theories do and should explain why their predecessors were successful insofar as they were successful.

Targets….P4: If the earlier theories in a 'mature' science are approximately true and if the central terms of those theories genuinely refer, then later more successful theories in the same science will preserve the earlier theories as limiting cases.

VII. Circularity