the philippine economy status quo et status ad quem · the philippines is expected to remain one of...
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The Philippine Economy
Status quo et status ad quem
Ernesto M. Pernia, PhD SECRETARY OF SOCIOECONOMIC PLANNING
National Economic and Development Authority
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Outline
• Where are we and where we should go?
• Need for economic rebalancing
• Recent economic performance
• The Plan
• The Outlook
• Opportunities
• Drivers of growth
• Risks and uncertainties
• Postlude
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GDP in 2000 prices, trillion Php, 1960-2018
PH economy has been on a sharp upward growth trajectory since
the beginning of current decade …
3
Real GDP growth
6.2% (2010-2015)
7.6 (2010)
3.7 (2011)
6.7 (2012)
7.1 (2013)
6.2 (2014)
5.9 (2015)
6.9 (2016 S1)
Source: PSA
Structural break for potential GDP ca. 2009
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-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
1990-1999 2000-2009 2010-2015 1Q2016
con
trib
uti
on
to
gro
wth
in p
pt
(%)
Agriculture Industry Services
Investment & industry becoming significant drivers of growth but consumption still dominates as does the service sector, while agriculture remains lethargic and net exports are down …
2.8%
4.5%
6.2%
Ave. growth
6.9% Supply Side Demand Side
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
1990-1999 2000-2009 2010-2015 1Q2016con
trib
uti
on
to
gro
wth
in p
pt
(%)
Consumption GovernmentInvestment Net exportsstatistical discrepancy
4.5%
6.2%
6.9%
2.8%
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Stark inequality not only among income classes (HHs)
(Gini = 0.46) but also across regional economies,
highlighting NCR-centered development for decades …
Source: PSA
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
Regional Share-to-GDP (%), 2013 - 2015
2013 2014 2015
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… while economic growth across regions has been markedly
uneven.
Source: PSA
5.9
3.3
6.4
7.2
9.3
5.1
8.3
4.3
5.2
7.8
(2.4)
6.6 7.1
9.3
6.2
9.4
3.0
6.6
3.7
5.0
3.7
5.3 5.9
1.7
8.4 8.3
4.8
3.9
7.2
5.5
7.9
3.3
4.2
(0.8)
(4.0)
(2.0)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Real GDP Growth Rate (%) by Region, 2013-14, 2014-15
13-14 14-15
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Population Growth and Poverty in ASEAN
• Country Population growth(%) Poverty(%)
2010-2015 ca. 2014
• Cambodia 1.5 13.5
• Indonesia 1.4 11.2
• Lao PDR 1.5 23.2
• Malaysia 1.6 0.6
• Myanmar .... 25.6*
• Philippines 1.9 26.2**
• Thailand 0.4 10.9
• Viet Nam 1.1 8.4
* 2010
** 2014 S1
Source: ADB Basic 2016 Statistics
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Need for Innovative Statistics
• Issue: why is recent high GDP growth not
trickling down?
• Metrics on how economic growth is distributed
across income classes.
• Metrics on how economic growth is distributed
across the regions.
• And, by the way, we also need to valuate and
monitor our “blue economy”.
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Poverty- and Inequality-Reducing
Economic Growth
This program objective of President Duterte entails
major rebalancing of the economy from being:
a) consumption-driven to investment and exports;
b) services-oriented to agriculture and industry
(manufacturing);
c) NCR-centered to regional and rural
development; and
d) in due course, fossil-fueled to renewable energy.
(a) to (c) are to be achieved through the 0 to 10-point
economic agenda.
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PARTICULARS
First
Quarter Second Quarter
First
Semester
2016 2015 2016 2016
GROSS NATIONAL INCOME 7.4 5.4 6.8 7.1
Net Primary Income 9.9 2.5 6.2 8.0
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 6.8 5.9 7.0 6.9
By Production Sector
Agri, Fishery and Forestry (4.4) (0.1) (2.1) (3.3)
Industry 9.0 6.1 6.9 7.9
o.w. Manufacturing 8.0 4.7 6.3 7.2
Services 7.6 6.7 8.4 8.0
By Expenditure
Household Final Consumption Expenditure 7.0 6.4 7.3 7.2
Gov’t Final Consumption Expenditure 11.8 2.4 13.5 12.7
Capital Formation 26.6 21.4 27.6 27.1
o.w. Fixed Capital Formation 28.2 12.7 27.2 27.7
Exports 7.3 5.1 6.6 7.0
Imports 19.0 12.6 20.9 19.9
Growth accelerated in first half of 2016
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA)
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The Philippines is expected to remain one of the fastest
growing economies in Asia
GDP growth of selected Asian economies (%)
Source: IMF-WEO April 2016, July 2016 Update, Article IV consultations for forecast values, and various government websites for actual values
Note: FY2016 and FY2017 are IMF estimates. 2Q2016 figures for India and Philippines are as of 1Q2016
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PDP 2011-2016 Targets vs Accomplishments
Indicators Baseline (2012)
2014 2015 2016
Gross Domestic Product (%)
6.8 6.5 -7.5 7.0-8.0 7.0-8.0
Unemployment rate (in %)
7.0 6.8 6.7 6.6
Underemployment rate (% of employed)
20.0 19.0 18.0 17.0
Poverty Incidence (FY; % of population)
25.2 24.0 22.5 19.0
Indicators Baseline (2012)
2014 2015 2016
S1
Gross Domestic Product (%)
6.7 6.1 5.9 6.9
Unemployment rate (in %)
7.0 6.6* 6.3* 6.0
Underemployment rate (% of employed)
20.0 18.4* 18.5* 19.0
Poverty Incidence (S1; % of population)
27.9 26.3
Targets Accomplishment
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• Growth has not been broadly shared across
socioeconomic classes and regions -- e.g., inequality
metric persistently high (Gini coefficient at 0.46);
CAR, MMIMAROPA, Eastern Visayas and ARMM
had even slower growth in 2010-2015 than in 2004-
2009.
• Agriculture, Fishery and Forestry grew by only 1.4%
annually in 2010-2015; -2.1% in Q1 2016.
• Food price, in particular rice, rose; poverty line
increased by almost 30% during the period 2009-
2015.
• Resulting in 10M+ more Filipinos.
The nagging PUZZLE:
Fast GDP growth but slow reduction in poverty incidence. Why?
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Challenge Agenda
Adverse investment climate Peace and order; massive infrastructure upgrade; cut red tape; ease constitutional restrictions on FDI …
Uneven growth Regional and rural development; pro-poor economic growth ...
Contraction in Agriculture and Fishery sector
Agricultural development; land administration and asset reform; technology and innovation; moving up the value chain and agri-business ...
The Plan: The 0-10 Point Socioeconomic Agenda
designed to address the puzzle & challenge
To illustrate….
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Challenge Agenda
High food prices Raise farm productivity;macroeconomic, esp. price, stability; strategic trade policy
Faster population growth [bulge of reproductive-age (15-49) women] during the coming six years or so
Full, rapid and sustained implementation of RPRH Law esp. in LGUs.
PH’s huge lag in Science and Technology (S&T) relative to ASEAN neighbours
Promote S&T and creative arts for self-sustaining inclusive growth and PH’s participation in global knowledge economy
The Plan: The 0-10 Point Socioeconomic Agenda
designed to address the puzzle & challenge
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Outlook
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Macroeconomic Assumptions
Not
As of July 5 DBCC
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Inflation (2006-based) Target 2.0-4.0 2.0-4.0 2.0-4.0 n.a. 2.0-4.0 2.0-4.0 2.0-4.0
Forecast 2.0-4.0 2.0-4.0 2.0-4.0 2.0-4.0 2.0-4.0 2.0-4.0 2.0-4.0
Dubai crude oil (US$/bbl) 35-50 40-55 45-60 50-65 50-65 50-65 50-65
Exchange Rate (Php/US) 45-48 45-48 45-48 45-48 45-48 45-48 45-48
364-Tbill rate (%) ** 2.0-4.0 2.5-4.0 2.5-4.0 2.5-4.0 2.5-4.0 2.5-4.0 2.5-4.0
LIBOR, 6 mos. (%) 0.8-1.8 1.0-2.0 1.5-2.5 1.5-2.5 1.5-2.5 1.5-2.5 1.5-2.5
Merchandise exports (PSA) (%) 4.0 7.0 9.0 11.0 11.0 12.0 12.0
Merchandise imports (PSA) (%) 8.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 13.0 14.0 14.0
Merchandise exports (BPM6) (%)
3.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 10.0 11.0 11.0
Merchandise imports (BPM6) (%) 7.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 12.0 13.0 13.0
Services exports (BPM6) (%) 11.5 13.5 14.0 14.5 14.5 15.0 15.0
Services imports (BPM6) (%) 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.5 16.5 17.0 17.0 **Based on primary market rate Note: Approved by the DBCC last July 5, 2016. Based on BSP data.
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Medium – Term
Growth Prospects for 2016-2022
Expenditure
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Actual Emerging Emerging Emerging Emerging Emerging Emerging Emerging
GNI 5.8 5.9-6.9 6.5-7.5 6.8-7.8 6.6-7.6 6.6-7.6 6.7-7.7 6.7-7.7
GDP 5.9 6.0-7.0 6.5-7.5 7.0-8.0 7.0-8.0 7.0-8.0 7.0-8.0 7.0-8.0
NPI 5.3 5.5-6.5 6.4-7.3 5.6-6.6 4.7-5.6 4.7-5.6 5.3-6.2 5.3-6.2
Deficit – 2016: 2.7 %, 2017-2022: 3.0 %
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Opportunities
Closer economic integration in the ASEAN region which would
open up new sources of capital and markets
Philippine hosting of ASEAN meetings in 2017
Peaceful and smooth transfer of power
Commitment to continue current macroeconomic policies and
programs, sustain reform momentum
Potential resumption of peace talks with NDF, MILF, MNLF
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Expected Drivers of Growth
Demand side
Household consumption: remittance inflows, better employment prospects, strong
consumer confidence, low inflation, low interest rates
Government spending: expansion of human development and social protection
programs (i.e. CCT, K-12, health, etc)
Investment: public construction, including infrastructure and reconstruction; private
construction
Exports of services: good prospects for Business Process Management (BPM) and
tourism
Supply side
Lower petroleum prices
Construction and infrastructure development
Manufacturing resurgence
Real estate, renting, and business activities in response to demand from the BPM
sector
Tourism-related services
Wholesale and retail trade
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Fragile growth in Japan and European Union
Slowdown in large emerging economies, particularly China
Asynchronous monetary policies in major developed economies
Uncertainties over “Brexit”
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, extended period of low oil prices
Maritime dispute in the West Philippine Sea
Risks and Uncertainties
External
Domestic
Logistics bottlenecks
Delays in government infrastructure and reconstruction projects
Weather shocks, potential La Nina
Widening trade deficit
Closure of mines
We remain vigilant and well- positioned against the downside risks to growth
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Need for Behavioral Change
• “Vicious patience” vs. “virtuous impatience”
• The former results in vicious circle that keeps us in low-level
equilibrium trap, while the latter leads to virtuous circle that
steadily lifts us out of such a trap.
• The three diverse branches of government can argue and
should act according to their respective roles, but should be
complementary.
• And always aim for a common goal – diversity towards unity –
an exemplar that could be followed by all citizenry – toward
achieving poverty- and inequality-reducing economic growth!