The political economy of farmers’ suicide in India

Jonathan Kennedy

Department of Sociology, University of Cambridge and Department of Political Science, UCL

SUICIDE IN INDIA

• In 2010 187,000 people died from suicide in India.

• Indian suicide rates are among the highest in the world–26·3 (per 100,000) for men and 17·5 for women.

• Suicide is the second leading cause of death among young adults in India.

FARMERS’ SUICIDES

No India-wide quantitative evidence

• One major study on suicide in India published in The Lancet (Patel et al. 2012). Uses a nationally representative mortality survey of 1·1 million households.

• They state: “our findings do not suggest that suicide is any more prevalent in agricultural workers (including farmers) than it is in any other profession”.

How do we explain this contradiction?

• Patel et al do not correctly operationalize the mechanism that many identified as linking farmers to increased suicide rates.

• They compare the primary occupations of those people who committed suicide.

• Who is a “farmer” is and what is a “farmer suicide”?

• Patel et al. reify social structure of rural India and assumes all suicides involving farmers are farmers’ suicides.

Figure1:The%ofmarginalfarmersandsuiciderates(r=0·241,p=0·378)

Figure1:The%ofmarginalfarmersandsuiciderates(r=0·241,p=0·378)

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Figure1:The%ofmarginalfarmersandsuiciderates(r=0·241,p=0·378)

Figure1:The%ofmarginalfarmersandsuiciderates(r=0·241,p=0·378)

Figure1:The%ofmarginalfarmersandsuiciderates(r=0·241,p=0·378)

Figure2:The%ofcrashcropsandsuiciderates(r=0·628,p=0·005)

Figure3:The%ofindebtedfarmersandsuiciderates(r=0·729,p=0·018)

Figure3:The%ofindebtedfarmersandsuiciderates(r=0·729,p=0·018)

Conclusions

• Redistribution of land is a desirable policy prescription, but perhaps not a realistic one.

• State interventions to stabilize the price of cash crops and relieve indebted farmers may be effective at reducing suicide rates in India.

• Fallibility of large N statistical analysis in public health when they are not combined with sound operationalization of mechanisms as specified by qualitative studies.

Future research…

• More and better quantitative data

• Qualitative study using carefully selected comparative cases

• Possible role of GM crops – RCT?

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Table 3: Linear regressions showing the political and economic determinants

of farmers’ suicide, 2001-05

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

Marginal farmers % ·252 ·381* ·402* ·437***

(·233) (·123) (·163) (·095)

Cash crops %

·683§

·801** ·518*

(·355) (·240) (·209)

Indebted farmers %

·670*

·806** ·549*

(·214) (·231) (·187)

Model N 90 90 90 90 90 90

Model F 1.17 3.70 9.83* 13·97*** 6·53* 18·06***

Model adjusted R2 ·086 ·359 ·365 ·566 ·591 ·738

Notes:- * p<=·05 (5%), ** p<=·01 (1%), *** p<=·001 (0.1%), § p=·071 (7.1%).

Constants calculated but not reported.

Table 4: Linear regressions showing the effects of income, poverty, inequality on

farmers’ suicide, 2001-05

(7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)

Income ·554 ·051

(·491) (·223)

Poverty

-·063 ·233

(·339) (·133)

Inequality

·322* ·092

(.115) (·073)

Marginal farmers % ·441***

·428***

·429***

(·099) (.099) (·093)

Cash crops %

·514*

·549*

·448§

(·208) (·205) (·215)

Indebted farmers %

·542*

·571*

·395*

(·189) (·184) (·169)

Model N 90 90 90 90 75 75

Model F 1.27 14·83*** ·03 16.39*** 7.88* 14·12***

Model adjusted R2 ·038 ·738 ·010 ·757 ·361 ·735

Notes:- * p<=·05 (5%), ** p<=·01 (1%), *** p<=·001 (0.1%), § p=·056 (5.6%).

Constants calculated but not reported. For inequality there is no data for Himachal

Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, and the north eastern states.

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