The Political Economy of Undocumented Migration

Douglas S. MasseyWoodrow Wilson School

Princeton University

Rise of Latino Threat NarrativeDistribution of Alarmist Covers by Period

18

37

45

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1970s 1980s 1990s

Decade

Perc

enta

ge

1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 20090

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Mentions of Immigration as a Crisis, Flood, or Invasion in Leading U.S. Newspapers

1965 QuotasTake Effect

1980 RefugeeAct Passes IRCA Passes

OperationGatekeeper 1996 Acts USA PATRIOT Act

HR4437

ApprehensionsAnti-ImmigrantReaction

RestrictiveLegislation

RestrictiveOperations

No. of Border Patrol Agents

Size of BorderPatrol Budget

LinewatchHours

UndocumentedEntries

2

β SEDemographic Background

Age 0.0113 ** 0.0035Age-squared 0.0000 0.0000Female -0.1818 *** 0.0215White 0.3532 *** 0.0287U.S. Born 0.0139 0.0289Currently married 0.2479 *** 0.0214No. of minors in household 0.0552 *** 0.0094

General Human CapitalEducation 0.0329 *** 0.0037

Specific Human CapitalIncome 0.0021 *** 0.0003Skilled occupationProfessional occupation -0.0422 0.0273Service occupation 0.0269 0.0250Farm occupation 0.0365 0.0676

U.S. RegionWestNortheast -0.2168 *** 0.0323Midwest -0.0218 0.0295South 0.1734 *** 0.0279

Size of CityRuralLarge urban city -0.2395 *** 0.0412Medium urban city -0.1140 *** 0.0309Small urban city -0.0078 0.0240

U.S. Economic ContextExpected earnings -0.0027 *** 0.0004

U.S. Policy ContextMexican Apprehensions 0.1680 *** 0.0315

Total number of observations*p<.10; **p<.05; ***p<.001

51,981

Predicting Conservatism

--

--

--

β SEDemographic Background

Age 0.0351 ** 0.0138Age-squared -0.0002 * 0.0001Female -0.1113 0.0918White 0.5176 ** 0.1597Currently married 0.2474 ** 0.1094No. of minors in household -0.0150 0.0403

General Human CapitalEducation -0.0793 *** 0.0183

Specific Human CapitalIncome (x1000) -0.0016 0.0013Skilled occupationProfessional occupation -0.1017 0.0885Service occupation 0.0235 0.0852Farm occupation -0.0526 0.3130

U.S. RegionWestNortheast 0.1012 0.1512Midwest 0.1187 0.0982South 0.2608 ** 0.1062

Size of CityRuralLarge urban city -0.3992 ** 0.1667Medium urban city -0.1258 0.0784Small urban city -0.1302 0.1056

U.S. Policy ContextIdentified Self as not conservativeIdentified S+elf as slightly conservative 0.3959 *** 0.1018Identified Self as extremely conservative0.5572 ** 0.1520

Anti-immigrant sentimentSupport fo exclusionist policies index

Total number of observations*p<.10; **p<.05; ***p<.001

5,194

--

--

---

Support Exclusionist Policy Both: 1996 & 2004

--

ApprehensionsAnti-ImmigrantReaction

RestrictiveLegislation

RestrictiveOperations

No. of Border Patrol Agents

Size of BorderPatrol Budget

LinewatchHours

UndocumentedEntries

2

Cumulative Restrictive Legislation = -9.498 + .406*Percent Conservative R2 = .520Cumulative Restrictive Operations = -5.389 + .221*Percent Conservative R2 = .216

BP Agents = 1.803 + .245*Cum Legislation + 1.449*Cum Operations R2 = .898BP Budget = 0.264 + .006 *Cum Legislation + .275*Cum Operations R2 = .838

Linewatch Hours = -0.654+ .703*BP Agents + 1.957*BP Budget R2 = .990

Apprehensions = 128.650 + 13.964*Linewatch + .852*Undoc Entries R2 = .734Pct Conservative = 14.092 + .0103*Apprehensions + .1.462*Unemp Rate R2 = .648

.834Percent Conservative------------>-Apprehensions <----------- .686

Yields a Self-Reinforcing Non-Recursive Feedback Loop

Apprehensions Anti-Immigrant Reaction.834

.686

Has Fueled a Massive and Unprecedented Increase In Immigration and Border Enforcement

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100

5

10

15

20

25

Intensity of Border EnforcementBorder Patrol Officers Linewatch Hours Border Patrol Budget

Year

Ratio

to F

igur

e in

198

6

IRCA

OperationBlockade

PATRIOTAct

1996 Acts

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Total Deportations from the United States

Year

Num

ber D

epor

ted

Anti-Terrorism and EffectiveDeath Penalty Act of 1996

USA PATRIOT Act

Average Daily Number of Immigrants in Detention

6259

20,032

31,345

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1992 2000 2008

Year

Num

ber

Immigration-Related Legislation in State Legislatures

1404

570

300

13051405

170

8436

206259

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Year

Num

ber

Bills Considered

Bills Enacted

Anti-Hispanic Hate Crimes Since 9/11

480 475

522

576

595

426

400

450

500

550

600

650

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Year

Num

ber

Consequences of the War: Public Opinion2006 Pew Survey of American Adults

48

54

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Immigrants Threaten AmericanValues

Americans Need to Be ProtectedAgainst Foreign Influence

Approve of Minutemen

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

-0.0200

0.0000

0.0200

0.0400

0.0600

0.0800

0.1000

0.1200

Probability of Undocumented Migration to United StatesFirst Trip Later Trip

Year

Prob

abili

ty o

f Dep

artu

re

OperationWetback

Bracero Program Cancelled& Numerical Quotas Imposed

IRCA

OperationBlockade

EconomicCrisis in US

PATRIOTAct

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010$0.00

$500.00

$1,000.00

$1,500.00

$2,000.00

$2,500.00

$3,000.00

Cost of Border Crossing in 2010 US Dollars

Year

Cost

in U

S Do

llars

1965 Act IRCA

BorderBlockades

Death rate from suffocation, drowning, heat exhaustion, exposure, and unknown causes along border 1986-98

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Year

Rat

e pe

r 1,0

00 E

ntrie

s

Operation Blockade Launched In El Paso

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Probability of Returning to Mexico within 12 MonthsFirst Trip Later Trip

Year

Prob

abili

ty

Bracero Program EndsWH Quotas Imposed IRCA Passes 1996 Acts

PATRIOT Act

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

Mexican State of Border CrossingBC Chihuahua Sonora Tamaulipas Other

Year

Perc

enta

ge C

ross

ing

in S

tate

IRCA

Operation Blockade

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

State of Destination for Undocumented Migrants

Year

Axis

Title

IRCA

California, Texas,or Illinois

Other State

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Naturalizations by Mexicans

Year

Num

ber N

atur

alizi

ng

IRCA

IRCA Adjustees Eligibleto Naturalize

1996 Immigration Acts

Sensenbrenner Bill

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Current Trends in Mexican Migration

Axis Title

Num

ber o

f Mig

rant

s

Guestworkers

Undocumented

Documented

Back to the Future: Flows Then and Now

• 1956-1957– 57,000 Documented Migrants per Year– 441,000 Guestworkers per Year– 498,000 Total Legal Entries per Year– Apprehension Rate: 38.4 Migrants per Agent & Falling

• 2008-2009– 177,000 Documented Migrants Per Year– 331,000 Guestworkers per Year– 508,000 Total Legal Entries per Year– Apprehension Rate: 34.5 Migrants per Agent & Falling

Major Difference Between Then and Now:Resident Undocumented Population

– 1956-1957• Effectively Zero

– 2007-2008• Currently Estimated at 10.8 Million• 60% of all Undocumented Migrants Are Mexican• 55% of All Mexicans Present in US Are Undocumented

– Of 11 Million Undocumented Migrants• 3+ Million Entered as children• 500,000-1 Million Former Temporary Protected Status

Beating a Dead Horse:America’s Continuing War on Immigrants

Douglas S. MasseyWoodrow Wilson School

Princeton University