the population census as a time machine
DESCRIPTION
The Population Census as a Time Machine. Griffith Feeney Talk at Statistics South Africa 13 May 2011. “The history of a population is inscribed in its age distribution” --Nathan Keyfitz. 40-44. Kenya 1962 Census. Kenya. Kenya. Kenya. Time-Plotting Age-Specific Growth Rates. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The Population Census as a Time Machine
Griffith Feeney
Talk at Statistics South Africa
13 May 2011
“The history of a population is inscribed in its age distribution”
--Nathan Keyfitz
Time Plot of Male and Female Literacy in ChinaCensus of 1982
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980Year
Pro
port
ion L
itera
te
Male
Female
Time-Plot of Female Proportion Literate in PortugalCensus of 1981
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990
Year
Pro
port
ion
Census 1981
Time Plot of Female Proportion Literate in PortugalCensuses of 1981 and 1991
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990
Year
Pro
port
ion
Census 1981
Census 1991
Time Plot of Female Proportion Literate in PortugalCensuses of 1981, 1991 and 2001
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990
Year
Pro
port
ion
Census 1981
Census 1991
Census 2001
Male and Female Literacy in Mexico: 1870-1960 Source: 1960 Census
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960Year
Pro
port
ion
Male
Female
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955
Year
Me
an
Ch
ild
ren
Eve
r B
orn
Kenya 1962 Census
40-44
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965
Year
Mean C
hildre
n E
ver
Born
1962 Census
1969 Census
Kenya
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975
Year
Mean C
hildre
n E
ver
Born
1962 Census
1969 Census
1979 Census
Kenya
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975
Year
Mean C
hildre
n E
ver
Born
1962 Census
1969 Census
1979 Census
Fitted line
Kenya
Time-Plot of Children Ever BornThailand Census of 1960
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970Year
Chil
dre
n/W
om
an
Census 1960
Time-Plot of Children Ever BornThailand Censuses of 1960 and 1970
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970Year
Chil
dre
n/W
om
an
Census 1960
Census 1970
Fitted Line
Time-Plot of Children Ever BornThailand Censuses of 1960, 1970 and 1980
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965Year
Chil
dre
n/W
om
an
Census 1960
Census 1970
Census 1980
Time Plot of Children Ever Born DataUnited States
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970
Year
Com
ple
ted
Fert
ilit
y
1980 Census
Time Plot of Children Ever Born DataUnited States
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970
Year
Com
ple
ted F
ert
ilit
y
1980 Census
1970 Census
Time Plot of Children Ever Born DataUnited States
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970
Year
Com
ple
ted
Fert
ilit
y
1980 Census
1970 Census
1960 Census
Time Plot of Children Ever Born DataUnited States
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970
Year
Com
ple
ted
Fert
ilit
y
1980 Census
1970 Census
1960 Census
1950 Census
Time Plot of Children Ever Born DataUnited States
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970
Year
Com
ple
ted F
ert
ilit
y
1980 Census
1970 Census
1960 Census
1950 Census
1940 Census
Time Plot of Children Ever Born DataUnited States
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970
Year
Com
ple
ted
Fert
ilit
y
1980 Census
1970 Census
1960 Census
1950 Census
1940 Census
1910 Census
Time-Plotting Age-Specific Growth Rates
• Closely related idea: Interpret age-specific growth rates as estimates of …
• The growth rate of the “births function” of the population
• Begin with Lexis diagram …
tt - 5 t + 5
Time
0
5
Age
ASGR
Growth rate of birth series
Time Plot of Age-Specific Intercensal Growth RatesJapan, 1960-1965
-0.04
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970
Year
Gro
wth
Rate
1960-1965
Zero Line
Time Plot of Age-Specific Intercensal Growth RatesJapan, 1960-65 and 1965-70
-0.04
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970
Year
Gro
wth
Rate
1960-1965
1965-1970
Zero Line
Time Plot of Age-Specific Intercensal Growth RatesJapan, 1960-1965, 1965-70 and 1960-70
-0.04
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970
Year
Gro
wth
Rate
1960-1965
1965-1970
1960-1970
Zero Line
Time Plot of Age-Specific Growth Rates
-0.02
-0.01
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970
Year
Gro
wth
Rate
1960-70
All Ages Growth Rate
Time Plot of Age-Specific Growth RatesThailand Censuses of 1960-70 and 1970-80
-0.02
-0.01
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970
Year
Gro
wth
Rate
1960-70
1970-80
Time Plot of Age-Specific Growth RatesThailand Censuses of 1960-70 and 1970-
-0.02
-0.01
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970
Year
Gro
wth
Rate
1960-70 Adjusted
1970-80 Adjusted
Time Plot of Age-Specific Intercensal Growth Rates Pakistan, 1961-72
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Year
Gro
wth
Rate
1961-72
GrowthRate
Time Plot of Age-Specific Intercensal Growth Rates Pakistan, 1961-72 and 1972-81
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Year
Gro
wth
Rate
1961-72
1972-81
Time Plot of Age-Specific Intercensal Growth Rates Pakistan, 1961-72, 1972-81 and 1981-98
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Year
Gro
wth
Rate
1961-72
1972-81
1981-98
