the potential of energy crops in germany and poland · 2013. 12. 12. · folie 1 the potential of...
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Folie 1
The potential of energy crops in Germany and Poland
Workshop "Optimal land use for bioenergy
production without jeopardising
food self-
sufficiency and food security" September 2011 Pulawy, Poland
Dr. Sonja Simon
Institute of Technical Thermodynamics
German Aerospace Center, Stuttgart, Germany
Folie 2
Outline
Introduction
on sustainable
biomass
potential
Objective: potential of agricultural
area
for
bioenergy
productionin Poland and Germanytemporal development
until
2030
Approach: land use
model
HEKTOR
scenario
development
Results:available
area
primary
energy
potential
Outline
Folie 3
Overview Agriculture and Energy 2009
Poland Germany
Utilized
agricultural
area
(UAA) [Mio. ha] 16 17
UAA per head
[m2/head] 4 100 2 200
Fallow
and abandoned
land [Mio. ha] 0.7 0.3
Main agricultural
product
[€] selfsufficiency
rate
cereals80-120%
milk115-120%
Cereal
production
[Mio. t] 10 25Total primary
energy
supply
(TPES) [EJ] 4 14
Share of biomass
in energy
supply 6% 6%
Source: Eurostat
2010, IEA 2009
Germany, Poland and France together
produce
half of the
cereals
in the
EU-27.
Introduction
Folie 4
Introduction: Sustainable biomass potential
Advantages of biomass: applicable
in all sectors, on demand, also for
process
heat
leads
to high competition
for
restricted
biomass
potential
Residues
and Wastes
limited
by
primary
use
Energy crop productionvariable biomass production on demandincreases land use competition
risk for markets of food, feed and fibrerisk of direct and indirect land use change CO2 emissions with long carbon payback time
Introduction
Folie 5
Carbon payback time for land use change: Assumptions by IPCC
Ecosystem carbon
payback
time for
potential biofuel
crop
expansion
pathways
across
the
tropics
for
the
year
2000 agricultural
system
Source: IPPC SREN (2011)
Introduction
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Objective: the sustainable energy crop potential
Basic assumptions
Indirect
and direct
land use
change
must
be
avoided
to keep biomass
a low-carbon
energy
source
--> only
on existing
agricultural
land
All agricultural
land not
in use
e.g. for
food
and fiber
is
available for
energy
crops
Objective
Assessment of land use development in a country for a specific period
for Poland and Germany
until 2030
Folie 7
The modeling and scenario approach
Potentially available agricultural area
varies over time trendsdepends on political targets
Trends on food demand, agricultural productivity etc.Development of the HEKtar kalculaTOR Model
Assessment of „uncertain“ driving factorsDevelopment of Scenarios
Approach
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available
agricultural
residues:straw, manure
available area for
energy crops
Biomass potential model HEKTOR
food demand: land use for food:
other land use:
Approach
Folie 9
Biomass potential model HEKTOR
food demand:
-
population-
food
consumption
Approach
Folie 10
Trends in food supply
Approach
Poland
0102030405060708090
100
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
kg/c
apita
*a
0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%
PL wheat PL other cerealsPL pork PL beefPL poultry organic share
Germany
0102030405060708090
100
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
kg/c
apita
*a
0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%
D wheat D other cerealsD pork D beefD poultry organic share
Poland: increase in meat, decrease in wheat
Germany: stagnation in meat, increase in wheat
Folie 11
Biomass potential model HEKTOR
food demand:
-
population-
food
consumption
land use for food: -
yield
development
-
agro-political framework
Approach
Increase in crop yields
Increase in milk production/cow
Future development along trends
Phasing out of milk quotas
Gras land conservation
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available
agricultural
residues:straw, manure
available area for
energy crops
Biomass potential model HEKTOR
food demand:
-
population-
food
consumption
land use for food: -
yield
development
-
agro-political framework
other land use:
-
land consumption
-
nature conservation
-
raw
materials
Approach
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Scenario development
Policy dependent aspects, e.g:
Agricultural market
prospects
Organic
farming
Nature conservation
targets
Assessment via different scenarios
Approach
Folie 14
Scenario approach
2010
„Potential future worlds“ in 20XX
Scenario „philosophies“
e. g.• Business As Usual
• Energy [R]evolution
• comprehensive Sustainability
Scen. BAU
Scen. Y
Scen. X
Scenarios
are
if-then
assumptionsStory lines
describe
sets
of uncertainties
No prognosis!!
Approach
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Scenario development
Scenario Business as usual Scenario (BAU)
Sustainability Scenario (NH)
Story line Development along current trends, no further measures
consistent sustainability targets in various sectors
Organic
farming/
High Nature Value
farming*
PL 8% DE 12%
PL10% + high share
of HNV farming
DE 30%
Land consumption
for
building
activityPL ~25 ha/d ↑
DE ~80ha/d ↓PL 20 ha/d
DE 30 ha/d by
2020
Land for
Nature conservation trend PL forest
area
↑
+ HNV farming
DE 10% of land area
Market prospects
(DG AGRI) Shifting
to pork
and poultry; good prospects
for
milk + products
Self
sufficiency stagnation
Approach*HNV farming: low
intensity
but
no organic
label
Folie 16
available area for energy crops
primary energy potential
Results of the Scenarios
food demand: land use for food:
other land use:
Results
Folie 17
share of ulilitzed agricultural area available for energy prodcution
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
DE BAU
PL BAU
DE NH
PL NH
15-20% of UAA is
available
for
bioenergy
under
the
BAU and NH scenarioSlow
increase
in PL
Stagnation in DE
Results
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Availability of grasland and arable land
0,00,51,01,52,02,53,03,54,0
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
DE BAU PL BAU DE NH PL NH
Mio
. ha
gras landarable land
Sustainability
scenario
mainly
decreases
availability
of arable
landShare of availabe
arable
land depends
on system
intensity
Outline
Folie 19
Availability of grasland and arable land
-2,0
-1,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
DE BAU PL BAU DE NH PL NH
Mio
. ha
available
gras land
available
arable
land
nature conservation
land consumption
Folie 20
available area for energy crops
primary energy potential
Results of the Scenarios
food demand: land use for food:
other land use:
Results
Folie 21
Primary energy potential on available landTransformation of area into energy
On arable
land calculated
by
a cultivation
mix of 6 major
crops:Wheat
(+ straw)
Sugar
beet
(+ residues)Rapeseed
(+ straw)
Short rotation coppiceMaize
silage
(for
biogas)
Twin
cultivation/mixed
cultivation
(for
biogas)
On gras land: gras silage
for
biogas
Results
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Primary energy potential on available land
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
DE BAU PL BAU DE NH PL NH
PJ/a
gras silage (biogas)cultivation mix
Primary
energy
yield
is
variableDepends
strongly
on applied
cultivation
systems
Results
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Outlook
How relevant is the potential of energy crops for the whole Energy System?
Compared
to Energy scenarios
Compared
to the
National Renewable
Action plan
Results
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Evaluation of primary energy potential in PL
Primary
energy
from
energy
crops
alone
~ 10% of TPES
01.0002.0003.0004.0005.0006.000
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
BAU NH
prim
ary
ener
gy [P
J]
Total Primary Energy Supplyafter WEO EU (IEA)
Biomass WEO
Total Primary Energy Supplyafter Energy [R]evolution EU
HEKTOR energy crops
Results
Sources: World Energy Outlook (IEA 2009); Energy [R]evolution
(Greenpeace 2008)
Folie 25
Evaluation of primary energy potential
National Renewable Action Plan Overall Biomass
availability: 283 PJ in 2020
123 PJ from
agricultural
crops+residues
Primary
energy
from
energy
crops
from
HEKTORNH 2020: 325 PJREF 2020: 400 PJ
Results
Still some potential can be developed
Folie 26
Conclusions
available area for energy crops in Poland is increasing over time
15-20% of agricultural area is available for biomass production
Other sustainability targets strongly restrict energy potential
Without a comprehensive sustainability approach cultivation of energy crops can pose a serious risk to sustainability
Results
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Thank you for your attention!
ReferencesSimon, S. (2007). Szenarien nachhaltiger Bioenergiepotenziale bis 2030 -
Modellierung für Deutschland, Polen, Tschechien und Ungarn. Lehrstuhl für Wirtschaftslehre des Landbaues. Freising, Technische Universität München
Simon, Sonja und Wiegmann, Kirsten (2009) Modelling
sustainable
bioenergy
potentials
from
agriculture
for
Germany and Eastern European countries. Biomass
and Bioenergy, 33 (4)
Teske, Sven und Pregger, Thomas und Simon, Sonja und Naegler, Tobias und Graus, Wina und Lins, Christine (2011) Energy [R]evolution
2010 -
a sustainable
world
energy
outlook. Energy Efficiency, 4 (3),
NREAP Poland: National Renewable
Action Plan http://ec.europa.eu/energy/renewables/transparency_platform/action_plan_en.htm
Folie 28
available area
population per capita
food
consumptionnational consumption
= food
demandcurrent
self
sufficiency
demand
of plant products
demand
of
animal
productsfeed
plants
export/import
total food
production
yieldsrequired
arealosses/reproduction extensiv & non productive
animal
husbandry
losses/reproduction
stocks
utilized
agricultural
areaarea
balancebuilding/infrastructurefiber
and raw
materials
available residues
20052010
20152020
2030
manure
nature conservation
Folie 29
Competition for agricultural areaEnergy crops
face increasing competition
due
to
Restricted
overall
land availabilityIncreasing
demand
for
food
and feed
Increasing
demand
for
raw
materialsGoals for
organic/high
nature value
farming
(lower
yields)
Targets
for
nature conservationLand consumption
for
building
activity
Competition
can
be
decreased byProductivity
increase
in agriculture
Political
targets
limiting
land consumption
Sustainable Biomass potential depends on situation and targets of other sectors
Folie 30
available
agricultural
residues:straw, manure
available area for
energy crops
Biomass potential model HEKTOR
food demand:
-
population-
food
consumption
land use for food: -
yield
development-
organic
farming-
agro-political
framework
other land use:
-
construction activity
-
nature conservation
-
raw
materials
Approach