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DISCUSSION PAPER 1

THE PRESENT ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC SITUATION AND TRENDS IN INVERLOCH AND SANDY POINT AND SURROUNDS

PREPARED BY THE PROJECT RESEARCH TEAM FOR NCCARF PROJECT NO. SI 1109 MARCH 2012 IMAGE STEB FISHER 2012


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WHAT WOULD A CLIMATE ADAPTED AUSTRALIAN SETTLEMENT LOOK LIKE? PROJECT NO. SI 1109

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Discussion paper: The present Environmental, Social and Economic Situation and Trends in Inverloch, Sandy Point and Surrounds

Working Paper 1: Evolution of Adaptation Concepts and Understanding ‘place’ in the context of adaptation - Helen Martin and Michelle Duffy

Working Paper 2: Demographic Trends - Bob Birrell and Virginia Rapson

Working Paper 3: Overview of the Current Planning Scheme and Built Environmental Conditions - Chris Stanley and Asha Nicholas with assistance from Shires of Bass Coast and Gippsland South

Working Paper 4: Ecological Values of Inverloch and Sandy Point - Wendy Wright and Department of Sustainability and Environment, Victoria

What would a climate adapted Australian settlement look like in 2030?

Research Team:

Nasrin Baby, Bob Birrell, Vicki Bradley, Peter Brain, Marion Carey, Michelle Duffy, Scott Ferraro, Steb Fisher, Dave Griggs, Ashley Hall, Candace Jordan, Barbara Look, Paul Lennox, Craig Lyon, Carole Macmillan, Ian Manning, Helen Martin, Tia Navanteri, Asha Nicholas, Liza Price, Chris Stanley, Janet Stanley, Mark Symmons, Wendy Wright.

Report compilation: Helen Martin


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PREFACE

This Discussion Paper is the first iteration of information being collected with the aim of increasing understanding about the past and present environmental, social and economic situation and known trends in the townships of Inverloch (Bass Coast Shire) and Sandy Point (South Gippsland Shire) and their surrounds. Climate change projection scenarios are being prepared independently of this report, taking into account issues such as temperature, rain, sea level rises, ocean acidification and extreme events.

This Paper assists the teams’ understanding of the two case-study areas and begins building a picture of issues and trends known already with a view to identifying knowledge gaps. This is the first stage in work which will then build on this knowledge base, by (where possible) filling in the knowledge gaps, then review the environmental, social and economic trends in the context of climate change scenarios. Key information and trends including additional socio-economic data provided by National Economics (NIEIR), and the climate change scenarios, will be added to the National Economics model, allowing insights into possible conditions in 2030 and up to 2070.

Adaptation choices will be clarified and the two communities will be informed prior to their engagement with decision-making and planning for adaptation of these choices maximises wellbeing in 2030 and promotes their adaptive capacity over the coming decades. Representatives of the communities will explore with the study team the choices which have to be made around adaptation to climate change and the nature and timing of planning and action leading to the preferred adaptation models.

Researchers will review the outcomes and learnings from this process to understand the adaptation principles which could be applied more broadly around Australia, prior to the holding of three interstate workshops to review these findings.

The study team represents an important interdisciplinary and cross-sector collaboration, comprising:

• Commonwealth Government and National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF), located at Griffiths University, as funding and advisory bodies

• Department of Sustainability and Environment, Gippsland

• Bass Coast Shire and South Gippsland Shire

• Monash University: Monash Sustainability Institute; The Centre of Population and Urban Research; the Gippsland Campus

• Consultants: Shearwater Associates Pty Ltd; the Pathfinder Network Pty Ltd: the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR); and Splinter Society Architecture

• The Gippsland Climate Change Network.


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INTRODUCTION

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION – FRAMEWORKS & CONCEPTS

It is common to define the responses to climate change as mitigation, that is reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation, or learning to live with the environmental changes that will occur due to climate change. The better that mitigation is achieved, the less will be the adaptation task. However, the failure to adequately address climate change and the continual rise in emissions has led to a need to adapt now and in the future, whatever the future success of mitigation. Indeed, the ability to reduce green-house gas emissions must be part of the process of good adaptation.

The task of this project is to understand what adaptation success would look like in an Australian coastal settlement in 2030. However, the research team notes that the changes likely to be experienced as a result of the climate change already set in train (by the amount of CO2(e) emitted to date) will extend well beyond this 18 year time-frame. Indeed, the major changes are likely to occur later in the century. As a result, we believe that the real question is ‘what will a climate-adapting settlement look like in 2030’ – so that it is not only coping adequately with changes manifested by that time, but also has the flexibility and adaptive capacity to continue to change and evolve as needed over the next 100 plus years.

To answer the research question – either in its original or modified form – requires an understanding of what the features of the settlement would look like and what was done to achieve these features. To achieve success it is necessary to understand the pallet being worked on. What is the settlement like now? What are its features now? What are the forces facilitating and inhibiting successful adaptation?

There is not a simple answer to these questions, as the influencing forces are complex, inter-related, non-linear and operate in feedback loops. System thinking is required which encompasses reflective thinking and no one set approach, where assumptions need to be queried, holistic thinking is required, boundaries need to be defined within which action can be taken and there is a need to understand the trigger points and the positive and negative feedback loops (Ison 2010).

Adger, Arnell, and Tompkins (2005, p. 78) define adaptation as:

An adjustment in ecological, social or economic systems in response to observed or expected changes in climatic stimuli and their effects and impacts in order to alleviate adverse impacts of change or take advantage of new opportunities.

This definition is consistent with that adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007 and previous reports), but has some shortcomings. An alternative definition, put forward by Moser and Ekstrom (2010, p.1) is:

Adaptation involves changes in social-ecological systems in response to actual and expected impacts of climate change in the context of interacting non-climatic changes. Adaptation strategies and actions can range from short-term coping to longer-term, deeper transformations, aim to meet more than climate change goals alone, and may or may not succeed in moderating harm or exploiting beneficial opportunities.

Moser and Ekstrom note that their definition differs from the IPCC’s in several significant respects:

• It does not implicitly assume that adaptation strategies will be effective. They note that whether harm is moderated and beneficial opportunities are exploited is contingent on many factors, not just on the adaptive action itself. Some adaptive actions may turn out to be maladaptive later on.

• It recognises that adaptation must consider, but may not be justified by, climate change alone and may be initiated or undertaken in the context of non-climatic win-dows of opportunity (e.g. land use plan updates, infrastructure replacement, renovat-ing a building).

• The IPCC distinguishes between natural and human systems, whereas Moser and Ekstrom are most interested in social-ecological systems.

The focus of this project is also on social-ecological systems, so the Moser and Ekstrom definition appears to be the most appropriate the research team has identified to date. The revised definition was also supported by the CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship in its 2011 submission to the Productivity Commission inquiry that is seeking to identify barriers to effective climate change.

Working Paper 1 contains a review of the definitions and dimensions of climate change adaptation, with a particular focus on the role of ‘place’ and community cohesion.

Key concepts in adaptation include:

• Risk management• Vulnerability• Adaptive capacity• Resilience• Limits (also known as thresholds)• Barriers.

These are discussed and defined in Working Paper 1.


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Adaptation can involve both building adaptive capacity in individuals, groups and organisations and also implementing adaptation decisions through actions by individuals, groups, organisations and governments. Adaptation is not something that is thought about separately to other decision-making but an integral part of all planning, policy and actions throughout society. Thus, all environmental, social and economic decisions need to be embedded in the context of both mitigation and adaptation, and decisions in all these areas have significant outcome implications for these climate change responses.

Consideration of the characteristics of a climate-adapted (or climate-adapting) settlement includes the questions first raised by Smit et al in 2000:

• Adapt to what?• Who or what adapts?• How does adaptation occur?• How do we monitor and evaluate adaptation action to decide if it was successful?

In the context of small settlements, imbedded within much larger physical, ecological, social and political systems, some additional questions might be:

• What are the preconditions that need to be met at the national, state or regional/local government scale to enable a settlement to become climate-adapted?

• What autonomy does a settlement or a community have to develop options and make choices about its own adaptation pathways?

• What characteristics of a community will tend to facilitate or militate against successful transitions?

The Economics Commissioner of the UK’s Sustainable Development Commission, has a vision of human flourishing which will necessitate ‘ending the folly of separating economy from society and environment.’ (Jackson 2009, p. 83). It will also require such actions as greater investment in public infrastructures, sustainable technologies and ecological maintenance and protection. He notes that simply telling people to reduce their consumerism and live more sustainably, such as insulating their homes, driving less and putting on a jumper, will not work. There is a need to change the perverse forces which drive people to consumerism in the form of status competition and also provide opportunities for people to participate in meaningful ways to contribute creatively to the life of society.

Adger and colleagues (2005) talk of three steps in adaptation: reduce the sensitivity of the system to climate change (e.g. putting in water tanks to ensure adequate fresh water is available), alter the exposure to climate change (e.g. engineering solutions to reduce/prevent inundation) and increase the resilience of the system to climate change (e.g. improve wellbeing and available resources and support recovery from hazards). Malcolm (2010) also adds the possibilities of ‘retreat’ or moving to safer terrain and to ‘abandon and relocate’ existing settlements. Discussions of the role of land use (or spatial) planning also stress that an important initial step is ‘avoid’ (keep new development out of areas that are likely to be at risk). Any of these approaches will have their own flow on impacts, and need to be considered in the local context.’

Understanding the embeddedness of actions necessitates an awareness of the spatial and temporal impacts of activities. For example, what may be adaptive for one person may result in adverse consequences for others, or short term adaptation may leave longer term problems. Thus, effectiveness, efficiency, equity and legitimacy considerations are needed (Adger et al. 2005). Such considerations involve value judgements and choices to be made.

Finally, the ability to adapt will involve the need for new ways of thinking which reflects on a society that we want in the future and a move from business as usual. This involves overcoming many barriers and current thinking paradigms which are based on the dominance of economic and business models, individualised self-interest, competiveness and in recent decades, rampant consumerism (Rifkin 2009). Moving to an environmentally sustainable model of society will have co-benefits to society as research evidence is increasingly building that beyond a certain point, economic acquisition does not increase wellbeing or happiness. Yet despite this growing knowledge, most ‘developed’ countries operate on the premise that more assets are better.

This Discussion Paper sets out a beginning to understanding of the context for the adaptation of Inverloch and Sandy Point and surrounds. It begins a journey in which the project team and the community seek to understand what they need to respond to, what sort of society they want, how they deal with risk and uncertainty, and what processes will lead to successful adaptation and ultimately, what would successful adaptation look like? Part of this is understanding the influencing factors and forces which will lead to successful adaptation, or otherwise. Many of these forces are within the control of local decision-makers, other forces will be due to external factors.


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The impact of climate change can be understood using the following framework (Stanley, in press):

1. Direct impacts from climate change

a. Those which can be predicted

b. Those where it is known that there is a chance the event will happen, but there is little warning about when and where this will occur and how severe the event will be in the sense of both impact and for how long the event will continue.

2. Indirect, second order outcomes.

a. They may occur because of a direct impact, such as loss of a food growing area due to severe storm damage on a crop, such as occurred in the past few years in Australia with severe storm damage to the banana crop.

b. They may arise from government policy to reduce GHG emissions, such as a carbon price which in turn raises the price of goods to consumers.

Direct effects may occur on along a range of predictability and may occur immediately or over a longer time. Thus, there may be a need to respond to an immediate unpredictable event, such as fire, or there may be time to prepare for a more predictable outcome, such as longer term water shortages in South East Australia. Of course, as in the latter, while an event may be more predictable, clarity of details may be less clear when a longer time span is involved.

When large transitions are planned, managed and executed within extended time-frames, societies and economies have a better chance of coping. [Malcolm 2010, p. 9]

Adaptation may be reactive or anticipatory, autonomous or planned. Adaptation actions can also take technological, economic, legal or institutional forms (Smit et al 2000) as well as engineering or planning responses.

In preparing for the planned search conferences in each of the target settlements, the research team is considering developing a series of adaptation scenarios (guided by the VCCAR 2011 report on Scenarios for Climate Adaptation).

These could be cast as:

• Business as usual, that is, responding to changes in an incremental fashion, as they manifest themselves.

• ‘No regrets’ – that is, taking actions that will have a range of other benefits, either to solve existing problems (such as erosion) or address the likely impacts of other social or economic forces (such as the effects of rising energy prices). This could be described as a transitional approach.

• Active adaptation, or a transformational strategy, that will seek to anticipate major changes and position the communities to minimise impacts and take advantage of opportunites.


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LOCATION OF SETTLEMENTS

INVERLOCHInverloch is located on the coast, 143 kilometres from Melbourne, with the Bass Coast Highway running through the town. The township also adjoins Anderson Inlet, a shallow marine embayment at the mouth of the Tarwin River.

Figure 1: Inverloch township and surrounds Source: Google Earth


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SANDY POINTSandy Point is located on the coast 40 kms south of Leongatha, on the western side of the approaches to Wilsons Promontory. Sandy Point lies between Waratah Bay and the marine embayment of Shallow Inlet.

Figure 2: Sandy Point and surrounds Source: Google Earth


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SETTLEMENT CHARACTERISTICS

INVERLOCHThe permanent population of Inverloch is around 3,800 and is made up predominantly of low income retirees, reflecting the town’s economic base in the service, education and construction industries and the high retirement component. However, Inverloch also has an intermittent population of second-home owners, who are generally much more affluent than most of those who live in the town year round.

At the time of the 2006 Census, only 51% of the 3,467 dwellings in the town were occupied. Of the people living in the town in 2006, 45% were aged 55 years or above, compared with 24% of the population of Victoria as a whole.

The combined effect of the elevated housing demand generated by workers on the nearby Desalination Plant project and second-home buyers has been to raise the median price for a house to $450,000 in 2011 – equivalent to the median in the tourist mecca of Phillip Island and considerably higher than that in nearby Cape Paterson to the west (The Age, 24 March 2012).

The population of Inverloch is relatively mobile: 35.5% of people living in the town in 2006 had moved addresses within the previous year, and 54.1% within the five years before the Census.

Inverloch does not fit neatly into the typology of Australian coastal amenity communities (Gurran et al, 2005). It is not a coastal commuter settlement (which in any case is defined as having a population >15,000) even though it is within 0-1.5 hours drive from the State capital city. It is also too small to be classed as a coastal getaway (which is defined as 15,000-<100,000 people) and too close to Melbourne to be a coastal hamlet (defined as <15,000 people but more than 3 hours drive from a State capital city).

It is perhaps most closely aligned to the fifth settlement type (added in Gurran et al 2006): a coastal lifestyle destination, defined as predominantly tourism and leisure communities (without any population size specified), though these are still defined as being more than three hours drive from a capital city.

SANDY POINTSandy Point is a tiny community, with a population of 227 in 2006, but this expands by many thousands over summer. Of the 635 dwellings in the township in 2006, only 107 were occupied on Census night. As with Inverloch, the proportion of the population aged 55 year or above was very high (47%).

The Sandy Point community is slightly less mobile than that of Inverloch. In 2006, only 15% of people had moved addresses within the last year, and 48.2% had moved within the previous five years.

Sandy Point, like Inverloch, does not completely correspond to any of the settlement types in the typology of coastal amenity communities, but its closest match is with the ‘coastal hamlet’ category (places with <15,000 population and more than 3 hours from a State capital city).


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ECONOMIC BASE OF THE GIPPSLAND REGION

The following information is taken from the State of the Regions (SOR) report (NIEIR 2010).

Inequality between regions has been growing over the six years to 2010, a trend which is likely to continue and perhaps accelerate (NIEIR SOR). This will be so especially in the regions not directly impacted by the mining boom, which includes Victoria. The mining boom has led to a reduction of investment in non-mining areas and is leading to an adverse impact on non-mining trade-exposed industries. Indeed, in the past few decades the Australian government has not placed sustained resources into regional development. A further problem for local government is that investment has coincided with the interests of national companies rather than more grass-roots perspectives.

There is growing household debt which is reducing the demand for goods and services as households reach a saturation point of debt. The regions in South Eastern Australia which experience the recent rural drought have also shown reduced business productivity.

Once the construction phase of the mining boom has passed and mining dividends leave Australia, the exchange rate will go down and non-mining trade-exposed industries will regain their price competitiveness. However, knowledge-based industries and industries reliant on marketing (such as tourism) will take some time to recover, if they do. The longer the mining boom, the more difficult will be recovery of other industries.

AGRICULTUREThe South Gippsland Shire has dairying and plantation timber as its major economic base (NIEIR SOR).

In the Gippsland Region as a whole, close to 20,000 people were employed in agriculture, forestry or fishing in the first quarter of 2010.

INDUSTRYIn 2010, nearly 15,000 people were employed in construction in Gippsland, followed by 10,647 people in retail trade.

In 2006, NIEIR wrote a report on the Bass Coast Shire 2005-2030. They reported that the fastest growing industry in Bass Coast from 1991 to 2001 was cultural and recreational services. Personal services, finance and insurance services and health and community services produced the next largest growth. Of note was a 25% fall in the share of agriculture in the local economy and a shortfall in the Shire’s share of business services, being only 1/3 the Victorian average. In terms of skilled labour, the Bass Coast Shire is significantly under-resourced in tertiary education personnel and specialist medical professionals, as well as having a weakness in key business skills.

TOURISMThe economic base of Bass Coast depends heavily on tourism and retirement (NIEIR SOR). Indeed, this is the situation for most of the Gippsland coastal settlements. Inverloch and Sandy Point both have a high number of ‘second homes’, mostly owned by Melbourne residents.

The effects of sea level rise (such as loss of sandy beaches) and the need to adapt to climate change (such as implememnting engineering solutions) may reduce the environmental amenity of some locations, thus reducing their attractiveness for visitors. This could lead to a reduction in tourism as an economic base for the town. The impact of this will depend on the reliance of the local economy on tourism now and in the future and the impact of change on comparable or competing destinations.

INCOME DISTRIBUTION AND EMPLOYMENTThe following section is taken from the State of the Regions Report 2010, p.17:

The unemployment rate is a long-established, conventional measure of the state of labour markets, defined as the number of people actively seeking work as a proportion of the labour force, which is the number at work plus the number seeking it. Since the 1970s this measure has become less satisfactory than it was in the post-war era, for two reasons.

The first was the rise in part-time employment (including very short-hours employment) which meant that merely having a job was no longer any guarantee of satisfactory income. The second was the practice of reducing the number of people actively seeking work by transferring them onto social security payments which do not have worksearch requirements.

NIEIR accordingly prefers a measure of unemployment which derives from Centrelink data, being the number of people receiving social security benefits who, under a highly favourable labour market, might be expected to be at work. This measure has the additional benefit of reasonably prompt publication and accuracy at the regional level – it does not depend on surveys with small local samples.

In 2010, the national NIEIR unemployment rate was 8.7 per cent. NIEIR unemployment rate for the Gippsland region, which includes the Shires of Bass Coast and South Gippsland was 10.3%, higher than the Victorian average (NIEIR 2010).

In November 2011, the ABS national average unemployment rate was 5.3%, though – as noted above – this is calculated on a slightly different basis.


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The 2006 Census recorded 645 employed males in Inverloch, of whom 70.7% worked full-time. Females in work amounted to 589 women, but only 39.4% worked full time. In Sandy Point, only 26 men were employed (76.9% full time) and 20 women, of whom only 30% were employed full-time.

According to the Census, the 2006 unemployment rate in Inverloch was 5.4% (5.7% for males and 5.2% for females), but the labour force participation rate (for persons aged 15 years and over) was only 41.4% (47.6% for males and 36.3% for females). This underscores the role of the township – at least until recently – as a retirement destination.

For Sandy Point, the overall unemployment rate was 6.1%, but male unemployment was recorded as zero and the female rate as 13.0%. However, the labour force participation rate was very low for both men and women (27.7% for men, 25.3% for women, 26.5% overall). This probably indicates that the majority of the population is retired and is not looking for work, but there may be a component of population that has stopped actively seeking work because none is available in the local area.

SOCIAL SECURITYSupport benefits received by residents in the Gippsland region in 2010 are shown in Table 1:

Source: NIEIR SOR 2010 Social security recipient Gippsland Australia

POPULATION TRENDSThe population of Gippsland is growing. Average annual growth in 2001 was 0.5%, in 2006 it was 0.7% and in 2011 it was 1.5%. The national average population growth rate was also 1.5%.

Figure 3: Past and projected population for Gippsland region (000’s)

Source: NIEIR SOR 2010

Social security recipient Gippsland Australia

Aged 15-‐20 0.13% 0.08%

Aged 21-‐24 0.20% 0.14%

Disability Support

Aged 25+ 4.60% 3.22%

Aged 15-‐20 0.02% 0.04%

Aged 21-‐24 0.19% 0.20%

Single Parent payment

Aged 25+ 1.56% 1.28%

Long Term unemployed 1.65% 1.29%

Sort Term Unemployed 1.09% 1.16% Youth allowance non-‐student 0.51% 0.43%

Youth Allowance -‐ student 1.21% 1.09%


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The following figure (Figure 4) shows changes in the age structure of the Gippsland region:

Figure 4: Changes in the Age Structure, Gippsland region, 2001-2011 (estimated)


The proportion of people in the older age groups is increasing substantially.

Table 2: Population projection scenarios


Working Paper 2 – Demographic Trends examines in detail the demographic trends experienced in coastal areas in recent years and the external forces that are operating on the communities of Bass Coast and South Gippsland Shires.

The starting point of the paper was that coastal population growth could be driven by a number of factors, which might include the attraction of coastal communities for retirees, for commuters (where the communities were located within commuting reach of jobs in Melbourne or, to a lesser extent, Geelong), for people looking for economic opportunities where a coastal community is growing rapidly, or for people escaping high housing and living costs in the metropolitan area.

The analysis shows that most of the population growth in coastal locations derives from the age groups of 55-64 or older. Where these communities show a high incidence of persons who receive the age pension, it implies that the location is not attracting a significant share of wealthier retirees who are ineligible for the pension.

While the proportion of age pensioners to total population in the relevant Bass Coast and South Gippsland SLAs was equivalent to that in other coastal areas of Gippsland, it was much higher than coastal areas of western Victoria, the municipalities on the metropolitan fringe or Victoria as a whole. The difference was less marked when considering the proportion of residents aged 65 year or over who were on age pensions. Indeed, South Gippsland (S) – East SLA had one of the lowest proportions of pensioners in this age group, well below the State average.

The paper found that journey to work information from the 2006 Census indicated that 11% of the employed population of the Bass Coast (S) – Balance statistical local area (SLA) – which includes Inverloch – worked in the Melbourne statistical division. By contrast, only 3% of working people living in the South Gippsland (S) – East SLA – which includes Sandy Point – worked in Melbourne.

There were relatively high proportions in Bass Coast Shire of people receiving other types of government pensions (disability, unemployment, single parent) and the same was true for disability pensions in South Gippsland, but it was not possible to determine whether these people had moved to the areas in search of cheaper housing or had been obliged to go onto a pension due to local circumstances, such as the lack of employment opportunities.

The analysis concluded that one of the most important determinants of the level of population growth in coastal communities is likely to be the cost of housing. If high, this will cut off the flow of retirees and escapees.

The Valuer-General’s house price data for 2010, at the level of local government areas, indicated that the median house price in Bass Coast Shire was $330,000 and $245,000 for South Gippsland – considerably less than the cheapest housing available in Melbourne.


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However, as noted above, the median price varies substantially across municipalities, and the most recent median price in Inverloch is quoted as $450,000 (The Age, 24 March 2012). Land prices are also much lower than in urban growth areas in Melbourne. The implication is that the present price of housing in coastal communities, being low relative to much of the Melbourne housing market, is likely to be an inducement to relocation for households that might be attracted to coastal living for other reasons, such as lifestyle.

EDUCATIONIn common with the rest of Gippsland, education attainment rates are relatively low, as shown by the 2006 Census. Only 32.3% of Inverloch residents in 2006 had completed Year 12 (30% of men and 34% of women). The equivalent for Sandy Point was 24.2% overall (21.3% of men and 27.4% of women).

In Inverloch in 2006, 12.7% of the population of Inverloch had a graduate degree or higher (7.0% of men and 14.1% of women) and 25.3% had a trade or diploma-level qualification (34% of men and 17.8% of women). For Sandy Point, the equivalent percentages were 14.2% with a graduate degree or higher (10.9% of men and 17.4% of women) and 18.6% with trade or diploma qualifications (25.3% of men and 12.0 of women).

WELLBEING, HEALTH AND EQUITYEnvironmental, socio-economic and demographic changes can all have significant im-pacts on the health of a population. Understanding the vulnerability of populations to the health impacts of climate change means understanding the degree to which they are susceptible to, or unable to cope with, the adverse effects of climate change. The vulnerability of human health to climate change is a function of sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity.

Sensitivity includes the extent to which health, or systems on which health outcomes depend, are sensitive to changes in weather and climate, and the characteristics of the population. Adaptation measures may include systems in place to reduce the burden of adverse health outcomes (WHO, 2003).

The focus of this study is on the Bass Coast and South Gippsland Shires at the local government level, or on the Gippsland region in relation to Victoria. At a level smaller than local government areas (LGAs), health data are adversely affected by small numbers.

Figure 5: Pathways by which climate change affects health, and influences of environmental, social and health-system factors.

Source: IPCC, 2007 - Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

Characteristics of the population The rate of population change, as outlined in other sections of the report may have indirect impacts on health through factors such as reductions in access to affordable housing, and pressure on health infrastructure. Projected rates of population change from 2009 to 2022 are 31.7% for Bass Coast Shire (BCS) and 8.3% for South Gippsland Shire (SGC) respectively, in comparison with 17.8% for Victoria as a whole (Vic DOH, 2010). Of even greater significance is the growth in the population aged 65 years and over.

For the same period this age group of elderly residents is expected to increase by 53.4% for BCS and 55.7% for SGS, compared to 45.3% for Victoria. This is likely to increase the proportion of people with chronic illness, who may place higher demands on existing health services and be more susceptible to some climate related stressors such as extreme heat.

Certain groups within the general population may be more vulnerable to climate-related changes. These include the very old and very young, indigenous people, refugees, chronically ill people, those on a low income and homeless people.


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Socioeconomic indicators for the Bass Coast and South Gippsland shires indicate that on average residents there are more disadvantaged, with lower indices than for the state, as measured by SEIFA index, median individual weekly income, and proportion of adults on disability support pension payments. The proportion of indigenous residents in these shires is not higher than the state average. Recently there has been some refugee settlement, for example with Karen (Burmese) people in the area (Vaughan, 2010).

General health statusOn a range of indicators people who live in Gippsland are less healthy than people who live in Melbourne or many other parts of Victoria (Vic DOH, 2010)

Population health status can be measured by a number of indices, including life expectancy, and burden of disease as DALY rate.

Life expectancy at birth

Male residents of Bass Coast and South Gippsland shires have life expectancy lower than the Victorian average. Female residents have a lower or equivalent life expectancy (Table 3).

Table 3: Life expectancy at birth in Gippsland (South) LGAs, 2007

Burden of diseaseThe Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY) is the sum of years of life lost to premature death (YLL) and years lived with disability (YLD) adjusted for severity. A DALY can be thought of as one lost year of healthy life. A high DALY rate indicates poor health status of the population, while a low DALY rate reflects better health status (DHS, 2006)

According to the Department of Human Services Burden of Disease 2006 report residents of the Gippsland region have the highest rates of Disability Adjusted Life Years lost due to all causes, for both males and females in the state.

The DALY rate for male residents of Gippsland (per 1,000 population) is 158.8 (Victoria 143.0) and the rate for females was 140.5 (Victoria 129).

Major causes of disease, illness and deathCancer, cardiovascular disease, neurological and sense disorders, mental disorders and chronic respiratory diseases are the leading causes of disease burden in the Gippsland region (Table 2) (Vic DOH, 2010).

For comparison, the leading main disease groups in Victoria are cancer (21%), cardiovascular disease (18%), mental disorders (14%), neurological and senses disorders (12%) and chronic respiratory diseases (7%) (Vic DOH, Burden of Disease Study).

The leading 5 categories of disease by years of life lost to premature death (YLL) in the Gippsland region in 2001 were cancer, cardiovascular disease, injuries, chronic respiratory disease and neurological and sense disorders. The leading 5 categories of disease by years lived with disability (YLD) were mental disorders, neurological and sense disorders, cancer, chronic respiratory disease and cardiovascular diseases.

Table 4: DALYS by major disease category Gippsland region 2001 (leading 5 categories)

Source: Vic DOH, 2010

Males Females

Bass Coast LGA 79.4 84.4

South Gippsland LGA 78.3 83.4

Victoria 80.3 84.4

Mortality YLLs Disability YLDs Total DALYS

Cancer 6,374 1,697 8,071

Cardiovascular diseases 5,693 1,377 7,070

Neurological and sense disorders 843 3,601 4,445

Mental disorders 169 4,237 4,407

Chronic respiratory illness 1,107 1,693 2,799


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Community health careAccess to preventative health care, primary health care and higher levels of medical care as well as aged care are important potential elements of adaptive capacity. The South Coast Primary Care Partnership is an alliance of health and community based agencies who are working together in the municipalities of Bass Coast and South Gippsland, with promotion and chronic disease management as a major focus.

The South Coast Primary Care Partnership region is located within the GP division of General Practice Alliance – South Gippsland. A survey of General Practice Divisions 2007-8 estimated that the Divisional region had 82 practicing GPs.

At the time of the survey, the GP: population ratio for the General Practice Alliance – South Gippsland was the 20th highest in Victoria, out of 30 Divisions (Vaughan, 2010)

Table 5: Health, medical and aged care services By LGA

Source: Vic DOH – Healthier Gippsland

Other relevant health conditions or determinants Other health conditions and determinants of health particularly relevant to climate, include food and water security, rates of infectious disease, particularly vector-borne disease, zoonoses and enteric disease, and immunisation rates.

Food securityFood Security was measured in the 2007 Community Indicators Victoria Survey. Respondents were asked if there had been any times in the previous 12 months when they had run out of food and could not afford to buy more. 9.4% of persons living in Bass Coast had experienced food insecurity, and 6.7% in South Gippsland compared with the Victorian State average of 6% (Community Indicators Victoria).

Vaccine-preventable diseasesThe immunisation rates in Gippsland are generally higher than or comparable with the Victorian rates. Despite this, there were higher reported rates of pertussis in Gippsland than average rates for Victoria in 2008.

Enteric diseaseEnteric diseases which may cause gastroenteritis include cryptosporidiosis, salmonellosis, giardiasis, shigellosis and campylobacteriosis. Notifications of enteric disease in 2008 for the Gippsland region were unremarkable except for cryptosporidiosis, where the Gippsland region had the second highest notification rate outside the metropolitan region.

Mosquito-borne diseasesA total of 31 cases of Barmah Forest Virus disease were notified in 2008, with the majority of cases (48 per cent) being residents of Gippsland Region.

The Gippsland Region was the most commonly reported region of residence for cases of Ross River Virus with 84 cases in 2008 (35 per cent of notifications).

Bass Coast South Gippsland Victoria

GPs per 1,000 pop 1.17 1.14 1.03

Hospital inpatient separations per 1,000 pop 470.9 419.8 422.0

ED presentations per 1,000 pop 55.9 89.6 249.9

Registered mental health contacts per 1,000 pop 14.3 11.9 11.0

High care aged care places per 1,000 target pop 27.8 33.6 41.3

Low care aged care places per 1,000 target pop 49.2 49.8 46.0


PAGE 16


ZoonosesZoonoses are diseases and infections that are naturally transmitted between vertebrate animals and humans. Twenty-one cases of Q fever were notified in Victoria in 2008. Workers from the dairy, meat and livestock industries constitute a considerable proportion of the notified Q fever cases.

The notification rate was highest among residents of the Gippsland Region, accounting for 2.7 cases per 100,000 population.

Sense of community, community cohesion and social inclusionThere is strong evidence that a sense of community, community cohesion and social inclusion is an important determinant of health outcomes, as well as of the likely ability of a community to cope effectively with the challenges of climate change adaptation. These issues are discussed in detail in Working Paper 1 – Adaptation Frameworks.


PAGE 17


HOUSING

The 2006 Census recorded 1,502 occupied private dwellings in Inverloch, housing a total of 2,901 persons. The great majority of the dwellings were separate houses (88.8%) but there were a number of one or two-storey townhouses or equivalent, 199 flats or apartments and three other dwellings (caravans, etc.). The average occupancy for detached houses was 2.2 people per dwelling, for townhouses it was 1.4 and for flats/ apartments 1.45 persons per dwelling.

Over half (51.3%) of the dwellings in Inverloch were fully owned by their occupier and a further 20.7% were being paid off. A total of 355 properties (23.7%) were rented, mostly from private landlords. Only 41 dwellings were rented from government agencies, or other housing bodies such as co-operatives or churches.

In Sandy Point in 2006, there were 64 occupied dwellings, made up of 61 separate houses and 3 other dwellings. The average occupancy rate for the detached houses was 2.1 persons per dwelling.

Over 65% of dwellings in Sandy Point were fully owned by their occupiers and a further 24.6% were being purchased. Only six permanent-occupied properties were rented, all from private owners.


PAGE 18


LAND USE, URBAN FORM, INFRASTRUCTURE & PLANNING

Working Paper 3 contains a compilation of relevant information regarding land use, urban form, infrastructure and planning, much of it the form of maps or other graphical representations.

Maps and diagrams for both townships include:

• The context and connections of the settlements

• Detailed maps of the townships and their immediate surrounds

• Cadastral information, roads and settlement patterns

• Waterways and water bodies

• Planning scheme zones and overlays

• Future strategic planning intentions (urban design frameworks and structure plans).

Additional mapped or graphical information for Inverloch includes:

• Character, image and identity

• Buildings and settlement pattern

• Tourist areas

• Reserves and trails

• Significant cultural areas

• Vegetation

• Water and sewerage

• Communications infrastructure

• Demographic information (population density, location of government rental housing, areas of mortgage stress, areas of social deprivation [SEIFA index], households with-out a car, levels of schooling and travel to work information).

Additional graphical information for Sandy Point is a map showing proposed future development and change (from the Sandy Point urban development framework).

Working Paper 3 also covers the following issues:

• Planning policies contained in the Bass Coast and South Gippsland Planning Schemes (Working Paper 2 also deals with the State Planning Policy Framework provisions relevant to coastal planning)

• Specific policies developed through strategic planning studies, urban design frameworks and structure plans about the nature and character of development to be encouraged in each locality, settlement boundaries and other issues

• Planning scheme overlays

• Recreation and open space issues in Inverloch

• The development potential of underutilised sites and issues associated with intensification of development in Inverloch

• Development rates and lot demand in Sandy Point

• Commercial and community facilities in Sandy Point

• The deficit in urban services (reticulate water & sewerage) in Sandy Point and potential responses.

Inverloch is supplied with both reticulated a water supply and sewerage. The water supply comes from the Lance Creek reservoir, which also supplies Wonthaggi and Inverloch. The Lance Creek system is now connected to the Melbourne water supply system for back-up (DSE 2011), as a result of the construction of the Desalination Plant near the Powlett River.

Sandy Point has no reticulated water or sewerage and relies on water tanks and septic tanks.

South Gippsland Water has recently reviewed its water supply-demand strategy (available in draft). Based on the Department of Planning and Community Development’s Victoria in Future population projections, a high growth rate is expected in its supply region (which takes in the ‘mainland’ part of Bass Coast, South Gippsland and part of Wellington Shires) due to the proximity to the Melbourne fringe.

The report notes that this pressure is particularly evident along the coast near Inverloch. Total water demand is expected to rise by at least one third in the next 50 years and could double. Demand reduction targets have been set for all supply systems in the area supplied by South Gippsland Water.


PAGE 19


The Urban Design Framework Settlement Background Paper for Sandy Point (Connell-Wagner, 2006) noted that there is potential for South Gippsland Water to service Sandy Point with an urban water supply by transferring some flow from Hoddle Creek and/or Battery Creek (by raising the dam wall) through a transfer pipeline, but funding for these works would need to be identified.

South Gippsland Water’s draft water supply-demand strategy notes that there are no immediate plans to service Sandy Point with reticulated water. From the experience of the research team with equivalent settlements elsewhere, there might be opposition from the Environment Protection Authority to the supply of reticulated water in the absence of a sewerage system.

South Gippsland Shire, though its Domestic Wastewater Management Plan, has assessed wastewater disposal and potential groundwater contamination issues in Sandy Point and determined that the settlement has a high priority for sewerage. Information supplied to the research team indicates that the Waratah Bay sewage treatment plant was designed to also accommodate sewage from Sandy Point.

Issues for consideration in relation to the future of the built environment of Inverloch and Sandy Point include:

• How to resolve existing problems with stormwater disposal / drainage backup in Inverloch and Sandy Point; these are likely to be exacerbated by climate change, which may mean that the effects of extreme storm events will become more severe.

• Whether a conventional gravity sewerage system will still be appropriate for Sandy Point under a climate change scenario, which may raise water tables and lead to periodic inundation of low-lying areas. Options might include a STEP system (utilising the existing septic tanks) in the medium term, followed by consideration of low- pressure or vacuum systems in the future.

• The likely impact of sea level rise on inundation risks in the townships and erosion of foreshores and dune systems.

The West Gippsland CMA has provided small-scale maps of the present flood risk (tak-ing into account the effect of storm surge) as well as maps of the additional impact of a 0.2 metre sea level rise – projected to occur by 2030 - and a 0.8 metre rise, which is the State planning benchmark (in the Victorian Coastal Strategy 2008) for 2100.

These maps [X1-3 Sea Level Rise Inverloch and X4-6 Sea Level Rise Sandy Point – next page] indicate that the direct risk to Inverloch and Sandy Point from inundation from the ocean due to sea level rise is not the major climate change adaptation issue facing the settlements.

In Inverloch, there are some relatively limited areas in the centre of the township – near the caravan park – that are vulnerable to increased flood risk from the seaward side over the medium term, particularly when combined with catchment based flooding.

For Sandy Point, the major inundation risk is severance of access due to water travelling overland from Shallow Inlet and cutting roads leading into the settlement. The maps do not indicate the depth of the water that would overtop the road, so more detailed stud-ies would be necessary to determine how much of an issue this might be.

The most serious risk to both Inverloch and Sandy Point from sea level rise is likely to be increased erosion of beaches and dune systems. This issue is discussed in the follow-ing section on the physical and natural environment.

Details of subdivisions and building permits will be added when available.


PAGE 20


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PAGE 21


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PAGE 22


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PAGE 23


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PAGE 24


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PAGE 25


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PAGE 26


PHYSICAL AND NATURAL ENVIRONMENT

PHYSICAL CONTEXT – GEOLOGY AND GEOMORPHOLOGYInverlochThe landforms around Anderson Inlet are dominated by sand. On the western side of the Inlet and in front of the township of Inverloch the foredune is made up of alluvial deposits. The eastern side, around Point Smythe, is classified as coastal dunes. The backshore profile and intertidal slope is quite flat.

The eastern side of Anderson Inlet is defined by dune capped cliff and sandy foredunes.

If tidal channels shift towards Point Smythe erosion may take place; if the tidal channel shifted towards the west deposition may occur on the eastern point.

Sand sediment has built up in the entrance to the channel over time, while further down the channel mudflats exist as a result of silt and clay deposition from the Tarwin River.

Successive lobes of sand have drifted in over the years to form the sandy beach seen in front of the township of Inverloch. This sand is prone to movement, which has resulted in infrastructure being built to help trap sand and protect the beach (Bird 1993).

Where the coast is exposed to ocean swell, horizontal shore platforms exist. This can be seen on the western side of Inverloch.

Over the past five years there have been a number of episodes of severe erosion of the foreshore at Inverloch. In October 2008, Council had to use excavation machinery to collapse a sand cliff that had developed on the foreshore between The Glade and the South Gippsland Yacht Club, as a result of a storm.

The cliff was regarded as a danger to the public, as it could have allowed people to jump directly into the main channel, which had moved closer to the western shore of Anderson Inlet. There were also several storms in 2011 that caused severe erosion and damaged beach access points. If erosion in this area continues, it appears that Ramsay Boulevard may be threatened

Bass Coast Shire has commissioned a coastal management consultant to undertake a study of coastal processes at Inverloch, to investigate possible causes of the erosion and develop options for mitigation. Options included: do nothing, and monitor ongoing processes; erosion protection of the primary dune with geofabric containers; beach nourishment; rock armouring; groynes.

Beach nourishment was identified as the preferred option for dealing with erosion of this short section of beach (Oldfield Consulting Australasia, website, March 2012).

Sandy PointThe open coast and entrance to Shallow Inlet consist of sandy coastal dunes. The intertidal slope is flat and Sandy Point beach is highly exposed to wave energy. The east side of the entrance to Shallow Inlet has low exposure to wave energy.

The Sandy Point settlement is located behind and partially within the coastal dune complex. The foredunes at the Waratah Bay beach are composed of fine, well-sorted, wind-blown sand that is held together by marram grass, with a wave-built berm of coarse shelly sand underneath.

Shallow Inlet is coastal embayment, with a narrow single-crested dune, which suggests there is not a lot of sand here protecting the inlet. The wave direction in this location is west which contributes to the westward movement of sand. If the sand was to move west the entrance to the Inlet may increase.

At Shallow Inlet, swells refract over the protruding sand tidal delta at the mouth of the inlet. The ebb and flow of water generates strong currents – when occurring with high tides waves can be generated, especially by westerly winds. This can lead to erosion.

On the western shore of Shallow Inlet, the sand spit has diverted the outlet to the south-east. The low hummocky dunes are subject to gradual movement by wind and being low lying, they can be over washed by storm surge. When the spit here is breached sand moves to the eastern shore, the dunes of Yanakie (Bird 1993).

Surface geology/geormophology is a useful indicator of erodibility. Exposed beaches and unconsolidated dunes – such as those at Waratah Bay – are particularly at risk, but Inverloch also has a high potential for erosion (Sjerp & Charteris, 2008).

Breaching of coastal dunes may result in inundation of land behind the dune barrier. Coastal embayments subject to greater tidal variation will be created, substantially increasing risks of erosion and flooding from wave action.

This is likely to occur after several successive storm events where the beach has not had time to recover. Andersons Inlet and Shallow Inlet could both suffer from these effects (Sjerp & Charteris, 2008).

Increased wave energy and changed entrance conditions may result in a larger tidal range and thus affect intertidal habitats. Navigation risks could also be increased, due to increased sand transport and deposition and larger waves.


PAGE 27


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Bird E (1993) The Coast of Victoria: the shaping of scenery Melbourne University Press

Community Indicators Victoria (CIV) (2007) http://www.communityindicators.net.au/

Connell-Wagner Pty Ltd (2006) Urban Design Framework Settlement Background Paper for Sandy Point Prepared for South Gippsland Shire Council.

CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship (2011) Submission 11/432 to Productivity Commission Discussion Paper re Barriers to Effective Climate Change Adaptation

DHS (2011 Victorian Burden of Disease Study http://docs.health.vic.gov.au/docs/doc/Victorian-Burden-of-Disease-Study

DHS (2006) Background for users of burden of disease estimates for Local Government Areas of Victoria 2001 Chronic Disease Surveillance & Epidemiology Section - Public Health, Department of Human Services, Victoria http://docs.health.vic.gov.au/docs/ doc/197784972941CCFECA257876001F426D/$FILE/HSBD110.pdf

DOH (2010) Gippsland region health status. Summary profile. 2010. Department of Health, Victoria http://www.health.vic.gov.au/regions/gippsland/gippslandhealthonline/status.htm

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DPI (2008). Ecological Vegetation Classes (EVCs). http://vro.dpi.vic.gov.au/dpi/vro/vrosite.nsf/pages/veg_evc Department of Primary Industries, Victoria.

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DSE (2011b). Ecological Vegetation Class (EVC) Benchmarks for each Bioregion http://www.dse.vic.gov.au/conservation-and-environment/native-vegetation-groups-for-victoria/ecological-vegetation-class-evc-benchmarks-by-bioregion Department of Sustainability and Environment, Victoria, viewed 24 March 2012

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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007) Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report.

Ison , RL (2010) Systems Practice: How to act in a climate change world. London: Springer

Jackson, T (2009) Prosperity Without Growth: The transition to a sustainable economy Sustainable Development Commission, UK

Malcolm, D. 2010 ‘Climate change – the need for adaptation on the Gippsland Coast’ Proceedings of the International Symposium on Coastal Zones and Climate Change: Assessing the Impacts and Developing Adaptation Strategies (12-13 April 2010), Monash University.

Moser, SC & Ekstrom, JA (2010) ‘A framework to diagnose barriers to climate change adaptation’ PNAS. Sustainability Science. www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1007887107 PNAS

NIEIR (2010) State of the Regions 2010 Prepared for Australian Local Government Association by National Institute of Economic & Industry Research

Oldfield Consulting Australasia (2012) http://oldfieldconsulting.com.au/content/ projects/inverloch-coastal-processes-study/ Accessed 28 March 2012

Parry, ML et al (eds) (2007) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vunerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, UK.

Rifkin, J. (2009) The Empathic Civilization, London, Penguin

Sjerp E & Charteris, A (2008) Climate Change, Sea level rise and coastal subsidence along the Gippsland Coast. Report prepared for the Gippsland Coastal Board.


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Smit B, Burton I , Klein RJT & Wandel J (2000) ‘An Anatomy of Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability’, Climate Change 45: pp.223-251. Kluwer Academic Publishers, The Netherlands

South Gippsland Shire Council (date?) Domestic Wastewater Management Plan.

Vaughan, N (2010) South Coast Partnership Community Wellbeing Profile Prepared for the South Coast Primary Care Partnership. http://www.southcoastpcp.org.au/index.php/publications/89-community-wellbeing-profile-july-2009- revised-2010

Wiseman J, Biggs C, Rickards L, Edwards T VCCCAR (2011) Scenarios for Climate Adaptation Report to Victorian Centre for Climate Change Adaptation (VCCCAR)

World Health Organization (WHO) (2003) ‘Methods of assessing human health vulnerability and public health adaptation to climate change’ Health and Global Environmental Change Series No.1 http://www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/91098/E81923.pdf


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BIBLIOGRAPHY

Gippsland specific literature

Barnett, J. et al. 2011, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan: Social, Economic and Institutional Dimensions, NCCARF, Gold Coast

Bass Coast Planning Scheme 2012, Schedule 1 to the design and development overlay, Bass Coast Shire.

Brooke, C. and Hennessy, K., 2005, Climate change impacts in Gippsland. Appendix 1 in Fisher, S. 2006, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Gippsland. CSIRO

Brooke, C. and Kinrade, P 2006, Climate Change Impacts in Western Port. Western Port GreenHouse Alliance.

ClimateWorks Australia 2011, Low Carbon Growth Plan for Gippsland, October.

Coastal Climate Change Advisory Committee, 2010, Issues and Options Paper main Report, February http://www.dpcd.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/34374/ CCCAC_Issues_Paper__Main_Report.pdf

Connell Wagner Pty Ltd 2006, Urban Design Framework Settlement Background Paper Sandy Point, 18 October 2006.

CPG 2011, Inverloch Design Framework: Final Report, for Bass Coast Shire, February.

Crossco Engineering and Environmental Consultants, Jennifer Jones Planning Consultants, Landsmith, Shearwater Environmental Management, 2002, Integrated Coastal Planning for Gippsland – Coastal Action Plan, for the Gippsland Coastal Board.

DSE, 2010, Management Plan: Sandy Point Foreshore, November, DSE.

Gippsland Coastal Board 2008, Climate change, sea level rise and coastal subsidence along the Gippsland coast. Final report of Phase 2 of the Gippsland Climate Change Study. Gippsland Coastal Board, Bairnsdale.

Gurran, N., Hamin, E., Norman, B. 2008, Planning for climate change: Leading Practice Principles and Models for Sea Change Communities in Coastal Australia, Prepared for the National Sea Change Taskforce, July 2008, The University of Sydney, Faculty of Architecture.

Gurran, N., Norman, B., Gilbert, C., Hamin, E. 2011, for the National Sea Change Taskforce, Faculty of Architecture, Design and Planning, November.

Harvey, M., Whetton, P., McInnes, K. L., Cechet, B., McGregor, J. L., Nguyen, K., Houghton, N., Lester, C., Styles, E., Michael, N., Martin, T., Heaney, A., Beare, S., and Norwell, G. 2004, ‘Impact of climate change on road infrastructure’. Austroads, Report no. AP-R243/04.” Austroads and the Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics, Sydney.

McInnes et al. 2006, Climate change in Eastern Victoria – Stage 3 Report: The effect of climate change on extreme sea levels in Corner Inlet and the Gippsland Lakes. CSIRO Marine & Atmospheric Research (for the Gippsland Coastal Board).

McInnes et al. 2005a, Climate change in Eastern Victoria – Stage 1 Report: The effect of climate change on coastal wind and weather patterns. CSIRO Marine & Atmospheric Research (for the Gippsland Coastal Board).

McInnes et al. 2005b, Climate change in Eastern Victoria – Stage 2 Report: The effect of climate change on storm surges. CSIRO Marine & Atmospheric Research (for the Gippsland Coastal Board).

Malcolm, D. 2010, Climate change – the need for adaptation on the Gippsland Coast, Proceedings of the International Symposium on Coastal Zones and Climate Change: Assessing the Impacts and Developing Adaptation Strategies 12-13 April 2010, Monash University.

Marsden Jacob Associates, 2006, Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change in the Western Port Region: Part 3 Strategic Directions, Scoping report prepared for the Westernport Greenhouse Alliance.

Marsden Jacob Associates 2008, Impacts of Climate Change on Settlements in the Western Port Region People, Property and Places: Final Report, Western Port GreenHouse Alliance.

Martin, H. (2008) Options under the Victoria planning provisions for managing climate change impacts in coastal areas, Paper presented at Gippsland Coastal Board’s forum on Options for Adapting to Climate Change on the Gippsland Coast, Lakes Entrance, 11-12 September 2008

NIEIR 2010, The State of the Regions 2010-2011, National Institute for Economic & Industry Research

Paschen, J-A, and Ison, R. (2011 forthcoming) Exploring local narratives of environmental change and adaptation, December, MSI, Monash University.

Paschen, J-A, and Ison, R. (2011 forthcoming) Exploring local narratives of environmental change and adaptation: Framing multi-level and multi-actor adaptation responses in the Victorian context, December, MSI, Monash University.

Sjerp, E & Charteris, A 2008, Climate change, sea level rise and coastal subsidence along the Gippsland coast: Implications for geomorphological features, natural values and physical assets. Report prepared by Ethos NRM Pty Ltd & Water Technology Pty Ltd for the Gippsland Coastal Board (Phase 2 of the Gippsland Climate Change Study).


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Stanley, J. (2009) Promoting Social Inclusion in Adaptation to Climate Change: A Discussion Paper, Commissioned by DSE, Victoria (Includes Bass Coast Shire)

Thom, B et al. 2010 National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan for Settlements and Infrastructure, NCCARF, Gold Coast

VCCCAR (2011) Framing Adaptation, Project Up-date November. Victorian Centre for Climate Change Adaptation http://www.vcccar.org.au/content/pages/framing-project

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