The Presidential Election Cyclein the U.S.A.

Something to Consider…

• Which do you value more?

democracy or freedom of speech

How are elections a test of both values?

Types of Elections?

• 4 kinds: regional/local, state, congressional, Presidential

• (est. 80,000 different kinds of elections in America / year)

2 kinds in a Presidential election:1. Primary-Caucus elections—contests within

a party2. General election—contest between

parties

4

Steps in the Process

1. Campaigning and fundraising--throughout

2. Caucuses and Primaries3. Political party conventions4. Election Day5. Vote of the Electoral College

Two Kinds of Campaign Issues

• Position issues (crunchy elections)– rival candidates have opposing views, – voters are divided and a partisan realignment

may result • Position issues in 2008: social security, defense

spending, public school choice systems

• Valence issues: (squishy elections)– Candidate supports the public, widely held view – Increasingly important because television leads

to a reliance on popular symbols and admired images• Valence issues in 2008: War on Terror, Housing and

other Financial Bubbles

The Electoral Process(Using Election 2008 as an Example)

Many Democrats seek their party’s

nomination

Many Republicans seek their party’s

nomination

Campaigns &

Debates

Campaigns &

Debates

Candidates “Throw Their Hat Into The

Ring”

The Electoral Process(Using Election 2008 as an Example)

Many Democrats seek their party’s

nomination

Many Republicans seek their party’s

nomination

Campaigns &

Debates

Campaigns &

Debates

Primaries &

Caucuses

Primaries &

Caucuses

Candidates “Throw Their Hat Into The

Ring”

Primaries & caucuses held in

each state

• Iowa holds the 1st caucus (Jan. 3, 2008)

• New Hampshire holds the 1st primary (Jan. 8, 2008)

The Electoral Process(Using Election 2008 as an Example)

Many Democrats seek their party’s

nomination

Many Republicans seek their party’s

nomination

Campaigns &

Debates

Campaigns &

Debates

Primaries &

Caucuses

Primaries &

Caucuses

Candidates “Throw Their Hat Into The

Ring”

Primaries & caucuses held in

each state

• Iowa holds the 1st caucus (Jan. 3, 2008)

• New Hampshire holds the 1st primary (Jan. 8, 2008)

Obama secures

the nominatio

n

McCain secures

the nominatio

n

The Electoral Process(Using Election 2008 as an Example)

Many Democrats seek their party’s

nomination

Many Republicans seek their party’s

nomination

Campaigns &

Debates

Campaigns &

Debates

Primaries &

Caucuses

Primaries &

Caucuses

Candidates “Throw Their Hat Into The

Ring”

Primaries & caucuses held in

each state

• Iowa holds the 1st caucus (Jan. 3, 2008)

• New Hampshire holds the 1st primary (Jan. 8, 2008)

Obama secures

the nominatio

n

McCain secures

the nominatio

n

Obama selects Biden

as his running mate

McCain selects Palin

as his running mate

Parties Hold National Conventions

• Develop the party platform

• Speeches are given in support of the nominee (a pep rally)

• Delegates vote & the nominee is officially announced

The Electoral Process(Using Election 2008 as an Example)

Convention held in Denver (Aug. 25 – 28,

2008)

Convention held in Minnesota (Sept. 1 – 4,

2008)

Parties Hold National Conventions

• Develop the party platform

• Speeches are given in support of the nominee (a pep rally)

• Delegates vote & the nominee is officially announced

The Electoral Process(Using Election 2008 as an Example)

Convention held in Denver (Aug. 25 – 28,

2008)

Convention held in Minnesota (Sept. 1 – 4,

2008)

Candidates campaign against

each other and debate the issues

Parties Hold National Conventions

• Develop the party platform

• Speeches are given in support of the nominee (a pep rally)

• Delegates vote & the nominee is officially announced

The Electoral Process(Using Election 2008 as an Example)

Convention held in Denver (Aug. 25 – 28,

2008)

Convention held in Minnesota (Sept. 1 – 4,

2008)

Candidates campaign against

each other and debate the issues

General Election

• 1st Tues. after the 1st Mon. in Nov. (Nov. 4, 2008)

• The “popular vote” is conducted

• Eligible citizens vote for the “electors” for Obama & McCain

Parties Hold National Conventions

• Develop the party platform

• Speeches are given in support of the nominee (a pep rally)

• Delegates vote & the nominee is officially announced

The Electoral Process(Using Election 2008 as an Example)

Convention held in Denver (Aug. 25 – 28,

2008)

Convention held in Minnesota (Sept. 1 – 4,

2008)

Candidates campaign against

each other and debate the issues

General Election

• 1st Tues. after the 1st Mon. in Nov. (Nov. 4, 2008)

• The “popular vote” is conducted

• Eligible citizens vote for the “electors” for Obama & McCain

Obama: 69,456,897

Popular Votes

McCain: 59,934,814

Popular Votes

The Electoral Process(Using Election 2008 as an Example)

Electoral College Votes

• 1st Mon. after the 2nd Wed. in December (Dec. 15, 2008)

• Electors vote at their respective state capitols

• Must receive 270 votes to win

• Usually just a formality, the results are not in doubt

Obama: 365 Electoral Votes

McCain: 173 Electoral Votes

The Electoral Process(Using Election 2008 as an Example)

Electoral College Votes

• 1st Mon. after the 2nd Wed. in December (Dec. 15, 2008)

• Electors vote at their respective state capitols

• Must receive 270 votes to win

• Usually just a formality, the results are not in doubt

Inauguration

• Occurs Jan. 20 at 12:00 (noon)

• Sworn-in by the Chief Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court

Obama: 365 Electoral Votes

McCain: 173 Electoral Votes

League of Women Voters of Massachusetts Citizen Education Fund

16

Narrowing the Field

• During and after the primary elections, many candidates are forced to drop out because of lack of support.

• National conventions serve to nominate their party’s candidate for president and vice president.

17

National Conventions

• Delegates attend the National Conventions to cast their votes for a candidate.

• Candidate with a majority of delegate votes wins that party’s nomination for President.

• Vice Presidential candidates are chosen by the Presidential nominee and are nominated at the National Convention.

What factors influence voting?

• Rank the following in importance:– Likability of candidate– Belief in importance of the

office/position– Impact on personal interests– Distinction from other candidate– Party platform

• ***Voter turnout is half the battle…

How do people vote?

• “It’s the economy, stupid!”• Most voters who switch parties do so in

their own interests – They know what issues affect them personally. – They have strong principles about certain

issues (abortion, etc.). • Prospective voting is used by relatively few

voters. – Those voters know the issues and vote

accordingly. – Most common among activists and special

interest groups

Citizens United: Are Corporations Protected?

• How does Citizens United show the court’s preference for the First Amendment over democracy?

How do people vote?

• Retrospective voting practiced by most voters, and decides most elections – Judge the incumbent’s performance and vote

accordingly – Have things gotten better or worse, especially

economically? • Reagan in 1980 debate

– Examples: presidential campaigns of 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996

– Usually helps incumbent.., unless economy has gotten worse

– Midterm elections: voters turn against president’s party • 2002 exception (war)

Debates

• Usually an advantage only to the challenger

• Reagan in 1980: – reassured voters by his performance

• 1988 primary debates with little impact on voters

Effects of Election on Policy

• Comparison: Great Britain, with parliamentary system and strong parties, often sees marked changes, as in 1945 and 1951.

• Conclusion: Many American elections do make differences in policy, though constitutional system generally moderates the pace of change.