the process of evaluating english cycle cities
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Kevin Mayne, Cycling EnglandTRANSCRIPT
The process of evaluating English cycle cities
Kevin Mayne
The opportunity
.Growing recognition that cycling contributes to tackling:
• Obesity
• Traffic congestion
• Climate change
• Improving quality of life
• Creating wealth through tourism and leisure
• Rising transport prices
• Recession
Planning for cycling – the value of cycle
infrastructure
Economic case for cycling
Analysis of the cycling towns
investment
12
3
Making the economic case
Cycling as a mainstream modeof transport
Economic case
But where’s the evidence?
.
Economic benefits of cycling are not fully understood
Cycling not viewed as a mainstream mode of transport
Systematic underinvestment
Translating benefits into hard numbers – the SQW study
. The measurable benefits of cycling:
• Improvements in general health and fitness
• Cutting pollution and CO2 emissions
• Contribution to easing congestion
10% of 10 yr olds are clinically obese, 29% are overweight
Adult obesity currently costs £8bn pa
50,000 deaths pa are from illnesses caused by inactivity
Valuing the benefits of cycling
. The value of cycling is higher where:• Inactive people become active• Older people are persuaded to cycle• Where cycling replaces a car trip, particularly in urban
areas• Where the journey is a regular trip
These are conservative indications - no allowance has been made for reductions in obesity / for children cycling / for the social benefits of cycling
•
Low High
Low
High
Age
of
addi
tiona
l cyc
lists
Proportion of cycle trips that replace car trips
Health Health/pollution congestion
Pollution/ congestion
£176 per additional cyclist
£382 per additional cyclist
£87 per additional cyclist
£293 per additional cyclist
The value of a cyclist
Economic case > Investment case
The investment case
. • A 50% increase in trips between 2005 and 2015 will generate savings of £1.3 billion
Investment in cycling projects shows a return of between 3:1 and 4.5:1
Implications for infrastructure
.
Cost of project Number of additional cyclists needed
£10,000 1
£100,000 11
£1,000,000 109
Investment case > evidence base
Cycling City and Towns
Phase one: • Original six Cycling
Demonstration Towns appointed in 2005
• Cycling England has invested £17m in these six towns
Phase one: The CDT programme
• First phase: October 2005 – October 2008
• All towns funded at approx £5 per head per year, matched by the local authority – total investment £10 per head
• All towns ‘medium-sized’; larger ones focussed effort on part of their population
• Consistent, co-ordinated investment and ‘joined-up’ measures leads to a step-change in cycling levels
Phase one: A taste of CDT achievements
• Aylesbury – Gemstone Cycle Network
• Brighton and Hove – Cycle Freeway Network and Personalised Travel Planning
• Darlington – Local Motion campaign
• Derby – Focus on children and young people
• Exeter – Engaged with local employers
• Lancaster with Morecambe – Expanded cycle routes in the area
Cycling Demonstration Towns – programme ingredients
• Cycle parking in schools• Bike It• Bikeability training• Engagement with the local business community• Major cycling events• Publicity
The results
Source data
Continuous cycle count dataQuarterly manual cycle count dataSchool travel dataCounts of parked bikesBehaviour and attitude surveysWorkplace travel survey data
Major themes addressed by findings
The effectiveness of targeting investmentThe importance of high quality provisionDistribution of cycling activityLessons in growing cycling
Key results from phase one• Cycle counts up in all six
towns, by between 10% and 57%
• Cycling levels increased on average by 28% in the three years
• Increase in number of people cycling
• Increase in physical activity amongst the most inactive
• Comparator towns do not show this
Physical activity assessment
• European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC)
• Asks about activity in usual week
• Includes cycling in categories
• Validated against accelerometers
• Predictive of all-cause mortality
The effectiveness of targeting investment:
growth in cycling to schools Hands Up
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
Percentage of pupils cycling to schoolHands Up - all schools Hands Up - primary schools
Hands Up - secondary schools
Dat
a fr
om D
arlin
gton
Lessons in growing cycling:a marked change in the rate of growth
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Aug-06 Feb-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Oct-08
Date
Me
dia
n d
aily
co
un
t
Dat
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om D
arlin
gton
Lessons in growing cycling:increasing the rate of growth
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Jan-98 May-99 Sep-00 Feb-02 Jun-03 Nov-04 Mar-06 Aug-07 Dec-08
Date
Me
dia
n d
aily
co
un
t
Dat
a fr
om D
erby
Headline comparison with London
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
220%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
years
ind
ex
of
cy
cli
ng
le
ve
ls
London 0=2000/01 CDTs 0=2006
Caution! Figures are approximate and indicative only; work in progressBase year for London = first year of strategic London-wide focus & investmentBase year for CDTs = first full calendar year of CDT project
Lift Off for Cycling
• Appraisal by the Department for Transport– The benefit to cost ratio is at least 3:1, and
may be as high as 5 or 6:1 if benefits are sustained over 30 years.
– These calculations are based on conservative assumptions, and do not include all the benefits of the programme.
Phase two: The Cycling City and Towns
• In 2008 another 11 more Cycling Towns and a Cycling City were recruited
• CDTs now in the second phase – all Towns funded until 2011
• New Towns are benefiting from the experience of the original six
• £100m investment package• Over 2.5 million people to
benefit
Planning for cycling – the value of cycle
infrastructure
Economic case for cycling
Analysis of the cycling towns
investment
12
3
Conclusion: The Economic case proven!
Cycling as a mainstream modeof transport