the projection of future air quality for regional scale considering climate change scenarios...
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The Projection of Future Air Quality for Regional scale considering
Climate Change Scenarios
The Projection of Future Air Quality for Regional scale considering
Climate Change Scenarios
Nankyoung Moon1, Sung-You Hong2, Soontae Kim3, Jung-Hun Woo4
1 Korea Environment Institute, 2Yonsei University, 3 Ajou University, 4 Konkuk University
2ContentsContents
Background1
Multi-scale Modeling System2
Climate Change & Air Quality3
Summary4
31. Background1. Background
Ozone concentrations are sensitive to temperature, humid-ity, wind speed, and mixing height, etc.
Changes in climate over the next century are expected to result in changes in many or all of these meteorological pa-rameters, which could have important impacts on air qual-ity.
To project the effects of global climate change on regional air quality in Korea.
4
45°E 60°E 75°E 90°E 105°E120°E 135°E 150°E 165°E
0 °N
5 °N
10°N
15°N
20°N
25°N
30°N
35°N
40°N
45°N
50°N
Urban Scale (Korean Peninsula: 9km)-WRF,CMAQ
Regional Scale (Asian region: 50km)-RSMGlobal Scale (~200km)-ECHAM5
Local Scale (East Asia region: 27km)-WRF
Return
Downscaling Method
2. Multi-scale Modeling System2. Multi-scale Modeling System
5
Global Precipitation & Temperature
ECHAM5 (Max-Plank-Institute for Meteorol-ogy)(Roeckner et al. 2006, J. Climate)
RMIP phase III (RCM intercomparison project over Asia, Beijing workshop, May 2008)
45°E 60°E 75°E 90°E 105°E120°E 135°E 150°E 165°E
0 °N
5 °N
10°N
15°N
20°N
25°N
30°N
35°N
40°N
45°N
50°N
• GCM forcing : ECHAM5
• For control climate: 1978-2000 • For future climate: 2038-2070
• Participants : 11 RCM group including Yonsei Univ, RSM (Korea, China, Japan, Russia, Austrailia, USA)
RMIP domain (171*131(50km))
Global Temperature
6
Physics Option
Short-wave Dudhia
(Dudhia 1989)
Long-wave RRTM
(Mlawer et al. 1997)
Surface Parameterization NOAH
(Chen and Duhia 2001)
PBL Scheme Yonsei University (Hong et al. 2006)
Cumulus Parameterization Kain-Fritsch (Kain 2004)
Micro-cloud Physics WSM3
(Hong et al. 1998)
Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model
7
Precipitation Anomaly during 1979-2006 over the East Asia region (105E-150E, 25N-45N)
1995 summer : near normal summer
Current climate Future climate (2000~2100)
1995 2055
2055 : Median year during the RMIP III period (2038~2070)
8
Experimental Setup
ECHAM5RSM
(50km)WRF
(27km)WRF (9km)
Global Asia East Asia Korea
1994~1996 JJA: Current summer climate simulations
ECHAM5 RSM (50km) WRF (27km) WRF (9km)
Global Asia East Asia Korea
2054~2056 JJA: Future summer climate simulations
BC & ICBC & ICBC by 1-way
nesting
9
Results – Summer Climate East Asia (RSM)
JJA Accumulated Precipitation (mm)
Observation (CMAP) Present (1994-1996)
Future (2054-2056)
Future - Present
Precipitation will be increase except for the eastern part of Tibetan Plateau and the north pacific area in the future climate.
3. Climate Change & Air Quality3. Climate Change & Air Quality
10
Results – Summer Climate East Asia (RSM)
Present (1994-1996)
Future (2054-2056)
The north pacific cyclonic will strengthen in the fu-ture
Future - Present
JJA 500 hPa geopotential height (m)
11
Present (1994-1996)
Future (2054-2056)
Future – Present
The marine water vapor in the fu-ture diverse well compare to the present climate over the north Pa-cific area.
The specific humidity increase in the future climate.
Results – Summer Climate East Asia (RSM)
JJA 850 hPa wind (m s-1) and specific humidity (kg kg-1)
12
Present (1994-1996)
Future (2054-2056)
The mean temperature in Korea, Japan and the north pacific area will increase by approximately 2 .℃
Future – Present
Results – Summer Climate East Asia (RSM)
JJA 850 hPa geopotential height (m) and temperature ( )℃
13
SudoKangwon
Chungcheong
Youngnam
Honam
Analysis Area
14
Present (1994-1996)
Future (2054-2056)
Difference (Future-Present)
Future Climate - Flow changes sounthwest from
west- Increasing of specific humidity
Wind & Specific Humidity JJA 850 hPa wind (m s-1) and specific humidity (kg kg-1)
15
Surface Maximum Mean Temperature
199619951994
205620552054
16
Surface Maximum Mean Temperature
1994~1996
2054~2056
3-yr Mean Maximum temperature difference
(Future – Current : 1.54 ℃)
17
199619951994
205620552054
Surface Minimum Mean Temperature
18
Surface Minimum Mean Temperature
3-yr Mean Minimum temperature difference
(Future – Current : 1.44 ℃)
1994~1996
2054~2056
19
199619951994
205620552054
Surface Mean Temperature
20
Surface Mean Temperature
3-yr Mean temperature difference
(Future – Current : 1.51 ℃)
1994~1996
2054~2056
21
Surface Temperature - JJA
Daily Mean Min. Temp. Diff. (future-current)
AREA
S.D. C.C. K.W. Y.N. H.N. S.Kor0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
TE
MP
.(¡É
)
Daily Mean Temp. Diff. (future-current)
AREA
S.D. C.C. K.W. Y.N. H.N. S.Kor0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
TE
MP
.(¡É
)
Daily Mean Min. Temp. Daily Mean Max. Temp. Daily Mean Temp.Daily Mean Max. Temp. Diff. (future-current)
AREA
S.D. C.C. K.W. Y.N. H.N. S.Kor0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
TE
MP
.(¡É
)
Diff. ( Future – Current)
Present Future Difference
Mean Min. Temp. 20.57 22.01 1.44
Mean Max. Temp. 28.26 29.80 1.54
Mean Temp. 24.11 25.62 1.51
(Unit:℃)
22
Accumulated Precipitation
199619951994
205620552054
23
Accumulated Precipitation
1994~1996
2054~2056
3-yr Mean Accumulated precipitation difference (Future – Current : 76.7mm)
24
Accumulated PrecipitationAccumulated Precipitation
AREA
S.D. C.C. K.W. Y.N. H.N. S.Kor600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1994~1996 2054~2056
PR
EC
IPIT
AT
ION
(m
m)
Accumulated Precipitation Difference (future-current)
AREA
S.D. C.C. K.W. Y.N. H.N. S.Kor0
50
100
150
200
DIF
FER
EN
CE
(m
m)
R.O.Korea
Present Future
831.8 908.5
Difference 76.7
(mm)
25
Maximum Mean PBL height
199619951994
205620552054
26
Maximum Mean PBL height
1994~1996
2054~2056
3-yr Mean Maximum PBL height difference
(Future – Current : -11m)
27
Maximum Mean PBL height
R.O.Korea
Present Future
1191 1180
-11
(mm)
Daily Mean Max. PBL Height
AREA
S.D. C.C. K.W. Y.N. H.N. S.Kor
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1994~1996 2054~2056
HE
IGH
T (
m)
Daily Mean Max. PBL Height Difference (future-current)
AREA
S.D. C.C. K.W. Y.N. H.N. S.Kor-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
DIF
FER
EN
CE
(m
)
28
199619951994
20562054
Mean PBL height
2055
29
Mean PBL height
1994~1996
2054~2056
3-yr Mean PBL height difference
(Future – Current :-24m)
30
Mean PBL height
R.O.Korea
Present Future
569 545
-24
(m)
Daily Mean PBL Height Difference (future-current)
AREA
S.D. C.C. K.W. Y.N. H.N. S.Kor-40
-30
-20
-10
0
DIF
FER
EN
CE
(m
)
Daily Mean PBL Height
AREA
S.D. C.C. K.W. Y.N. H.N. S.Kor
450
500
550
600
650
1994~1996 2054~2056
HE
IGH
T (
m)
31
CMAQChemistry Transport Model
Aerosol
Plumein
Grid
Gas-phaseChemistry
Diffusion
Photolysis rates
J PROC
WRFRAMSMM5
MeteorologicalModel Ouput
MCIPSMOKE
EmissionsProcessing
ECIP*
MEPPS*
Advection
CloudAqueousProcess
PDM
ICON/ BCONInit ial/ boundaryconditions
Processanalysis
Models-3Computational
Framework
Photolysis
SMOKE Tool
* Used in versions of CMAQ released before 2001
CommunityMulti-pollutantMulti-scaleAir QualityModelingSystem
Air Quality Modeling with US EPA’s CMAQ Air Quality Modeling with US EPA’s CMAQ
32
Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model
CMAQ Simulation
CMAQ Version 4.6
Chemical Mechanism SAPRC99
Emissions 2004 CAPSS & Intex-B
Boundary Condition GEOS-CHEM
Advection Scheme PPM
Horizontal Diffusion Multi-scale
Vertical Diffusion Eddy
Cloud Scheme RADM
Dates JJA (1994-1996), (2054-2056)
33
Input data
AreaArea
NonroadNonroad
MobileMobile
PointPoint
Annual
EmissionsShape filesEmissionsShape files
AQFAQF
MIMS Spatial Allocator
MIMS Spatial Allocator
Annual, Monthly
Annual
Annual
Spatial allocation; domain-specific
Temporal allocation; hourly resolved emissions
Chemical speciation; CB4, SAPRC99, RADM2
Plume rise; Point Sources
SMOKE processingKEI-EIPS
• Format conversion DB/ASCII IDA
• SCC mapping Split factors for chemical speciation Temporal profiles
• Surrogates Spatial allocation for county-based emissions
Emissions processing with SMOKE
34
NO (ex.)
PointMobile
Area Non-road
Point
35
SudoKangwon
ChungcheongYoungnam
Honam
Regional ScaleMCIP & CMAQ
27 – 9km
℃
Model Domain
36
Area mean 8-hr O3 (Observed vs Modeled) for June, 2004
Area mean 8-hr O3 (Observed), ppb
0 20 40 60 80 100
Are
a m
ean
8-hr
O3
(Mod
eded
), p
pb
0
20
40
60
80
100
Observed vs Modeled 1:1 Line
4.1686.0 xy
Model vs Observation
37
Met_only
A1B
Case Run Climate Change Emissions
○ X
○ ○
- Met_only : Considered only meteorology change due to climate change with the same
level of present emissions- A1B : Considered both meteorology change and emissions change in the future
Simulation Case
38
Emissions (present)
39
CO NOx VOC NH3 SO2 PM10
A2 A1B B1 A2 A1B B1 A2 A1B B1 A2 A1B B1 A2 A1B B1 A2 A1B B1
Power 4.68 5.05 2.75 3.03 2.59 0.50 5.58 7.97 3.97 - - - 2.86 0.56 0.21 4.68 5.05 2.75
Industry 2.11 1.81 0.48 2.08 1.64 0.95 2.25 2.42 1.26 2.26 2.27 1.40 1.29 0.76 0.35 2.11 1.81 0.48
Residential 2.18 0.79 0.20 3.15 4.12 1.83 1.91 0.85 0.19 2.00 3.50 1.55 2.19 0.27 0.11 2.18 0.79 0.20
Transportation 1.12 0.62 0.15 1.39 0.88 0.25 1.12 0.64 0.15 - - - 1.23 1.26 0.58 1.23 0.78 0.22
Emission Projection Factor (2055)
40
Present
Future
(Unit : moles/s)
Future Emissions
CO NO2SO2
41
Surface Mean O3 Concentration (met_only)
199619951994
205620552054
42
Surface Mean O3 Concentration (met_only)
1994~1996
2054~2056
3-yr Mean O3 Concentration Difference
(Future – Current)
43
Surface Mean O3 Concentration (met_only)
R.O.Korea
Present Future
46.27 52.40
Difference 6.12
(ppb)
Surface Mean O3 Concentration (met_only)
AREA
S.D. C.C. K.W. Y.N. H.N. S.Kor0
20
40
60
80
1994~1996 2054~2056
CO
NC
EN
TR
AT
ION
(pp
b)
Surface Mean O3 Concentration Difference (met_only)
AREA
S.D. C.C. K.W. Y.N. H.N. S.Kor0
2
4
6
8
10
DIF
FER
EN
CE
(pp
b)
44
Surface Mean O3 Concentration (A1B)
199619951994
205620552054
45
Surface Mean O3 Concentration (A1B)
1994~1996
2054~2056
3-yr Mean O3 Concentration Difference
(Future – Current)
46
Surface Mean O3 Concentration (A1B)
R.O.Korea
Present Future
46.27 60.67
Difference 14.40
(ppb)
Surface Mean O3 Concentration (A1B)
AREA
S.D. C.C. K.W. Y.N. H.N. S.Kor0
20
40
60
80
1994~1996 2054~2056
CO
NC
EN
TR
AT
ION
(pp
n)
Surface Mean O3 Concentration Difference (A1B)
AREA
S.D. C.C. K.W. Y.N. H.N. S.Kor0
4
8
12
16
20
DIF
FER
EN
CE
(pp
b)
47
Process Analysis - IPR (Integrated Process Rate) : can be used to determine the relative contributions of individual physical and chemical process
48
Process Analysis for Surface Ozone
Difference of the IPR (met_only minus current)
KST0 4 8 12 16 20 24
ppb/
hr
-4
-2
0
2
4
ppb
0
5
10
15
20
IPR of SFC O3 (met_only)
KST
0 4 8 12 16 20 24
ppb/
hr
-20
-10
0
10
20
ppb
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
IPR of SFC O3 (A1B)
KST
0 4 8 12 16 20 24
ppb/
hr
-20
-10
0
10
20
ppb
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Difference of the IPR (A1B minus current)
KST
0 4 8 12 16 20 24
ppb/
hr
-4
-2
0
2
4
ppb
0
5
10
15
20
IPR of SFC O3 (current)
KST0 4 8 12 16 20 24
ppb/
hr
-20
-10
0
10
20pp
b
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
HTRAVTRACHEMCLDSDDEPZero line O3 Conc.
49
Process Analysis for Surface Ozone
IPR of SFC O3 (current)
ppb/
hr
-10
-5
0
5
10
HTRA VTRA CHEM CLDS DDEP
IPR of SFC O3 (A1B)
ppb/
hr-10
-5
0
5
10
HTRA VTRA CHEM CLDS DDEP
IPR of SFC O3 (met_only)
ppb/
hr
-10
-5
0
5
10
HTRA VTRA CHEM CLDS DDEP
Difference of the IPR (met_only minus current)
ppb/
hr
-2
-1
0
1
2
HTRA VTRA CHEM CLDS DDEP
Difference of the IPR (A1B minus current)
ppb/
hr
-2
-1
0
1
2
HTRA VTRA CHEM CLDS DDEP
50
Process Analysis for PBL Ozone
IPR of PBL O3 (current)
ppb/
hr
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
HTRA VTRA CHEM CLDS DDEP
IPR of PBL O3 (A1B)
ppb/
hr-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
HTRA VTRA CHEM CLDS DDEP
Difference of the IPR (A1B minus current)
ppb/
hr
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
HTRA VTRA CHEM CLDS DDEP
IPR of PBL O3 (met_only)
ppb/
hr
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
HTRA VTRA CHEM CLDS DDEP
Difference of the IPR (met_only minus current)
ppb/
hr
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
HTRA VTRA CHEM CLDS DDEP
51
(ppb)
Region S.D. C.C. K.W. Y.N. H.N. R.O.Korea
A1B 16.77 16.01 13.62 16.29 17.14 16.09
met_only 6.94 7.23 5.06 7.39 7.95 7.08
AREA
S. D. C. C. K. W. Y. N. H. N. S. Kor
CO
NC
EN
TR
AT
ION
(pp
b)
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Current A1B met_only
Mean Maximum 8-hr O3 concentration (Difference)
52
(ppb)
Region S.D. C.C. K.W. Y.N. H.N. R.O.Korea
A1B 20.22 20.48 19.86 23.73 25.81 22.73
met_only 8.08 10.43 5.91 11.41 14.07 10.75
AREA
S. D. C. C. K. W. Y. N. H. N. S. Kor
DA
Y
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90Current A1B met_only
Frequency of 8-hr O3 concentrations exceeding 60 ppb
53
C-R Function
popratemortalitycrudeObMortality 301.0Δ
b : The increasing ratio of premature deaths in RoK ΔO3 : The difference of max. 8-hr ozone con. btwn future and present
Pop : Population
- The mortality effect of increased ozone concentration on the population
of
RoK was estimated using the C-R (Concentration-Response) function.
Premature deaths due to ozone increase
54
Estimated Mortality effect due to increased Max. 8-hr O3 concentration
AREA
S.D. C.C. K.W. Y.N. H.N.
¥ÄM
orta
lity
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
A1B met_only Regions
Premature deaths
A1B Met_only
SD 1,595 897
CC 504 274
KW 163 85
YN 1236 688
HN 662 350
RoK 4,160 2,294
- In was estimated that the total no. of premature deaths sue to increased ozone concentrations in the future (2055) compared with present (1995) is 4,160 under climate change (A1B case), and 2,294 under meteorology change alone.
Estimation of premature deaths
55
1. Future climate in ROK from the A1B scenario
Temperature : increase 1.54 of mean max. temp.℃
PPTN : increase 76.7mm
Wind : west → southwest
Specific humidity : increase
PBL : decrease 11m of max. mean PBL
2. The impact of climate change on regional scale air quality was evaluated under the SRES AB1 scenario.
Met_olny : increase 6.1ppb of max. 8-hr ozone concentration in JJA
A1B : increase 14.4ppb of max. 8-hr ozone concentration in JJA
4. Summary4. Summary
56
3. Frequency of 8-hr O3 concentrations exceeding 60 ppb (NAAQS)
Met_only : 22.73
A1B : 10.75
4. Ozone concentration will be increased even if human activi-ties continue as they are, not to mention under the future emissions.
5. Process Analysis
The effect of advection related to meteorology is relatively dominant
rather than the other factors
4. Summary4. Summary
57
Thank you for your attention