THE PROMISE OF 5G AND ITS SPECTRUM REQUIREMENTS

Commonwealth Spectrum Management Forum

Yaounde, 2 – 4 November 2016

Abdouramane El Hadjar Telecommunications Regulatory Board, Cameroon

Outline Introduction

Observation of trends

5G challenges and scenarios

5G capabilities

5G spectrum implications

Conclusion

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Mobile communication today : one of the largest and most significant platforms in history; transforming the way we communicate, experience

entertainment and make use of the Internet. In October 2016: World’s population: 7.3 billion; Global mobile subscriptions (including machine-to-

machine/M2M) : 7.82 billion; Number of people connected : about 4.76 billion

Source: GSMA Intelligence 2016, https://www.gsmaintelligence.com

Mobile communications: positive contribution to the economic and social developments

of both developed and developing countries; evolution toward mobile broadband (MBB) results in a new

opportunity to bridge the gap between Internet-connected and unconnected people.

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What is 5G ?

“5G” : from the industry perspective, future step in mobile

technology; focus on enabling a seamlessly connected society in the

2020 timeframe and beyond that brings together people along with things, data, applications, transport systems and cities in a smart networked communications environment.

International Mobile Telecommunication system (IMT) covers typical mobile broadband cellular systems currently in deployment and the future development of mobile systems including 5G. Relationship between IMT and “5G” recognized by

ITU and its partners who are working towards realizing the future vision of mobile broadband communication

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ITU and 5G

ITU-R provides the unique opportunity for collaboration between governments (ITU Member States), industry (ITU-R Sector Members), Associates and Academia Viewpoints and concerns are taken into consideration and

finally approved by Member States to create globally agreed outcomes (ITU-R Reports, Recommendations and Radio Regulations). ITU-R Working Party 5D is the lead group responsible for the

overall radio system aspects of the terrestrial component of IMT systems Programme to develop “IMT for 2020 and beyond” who sets

the stage for “5G” research activities that are emerging around the world, started in early 2012 “Vision” of the “5G” mobile broadband connected society

finalized by ITU-R in September 2015 deliberations on additional spectrum in support of the future

growth of IMT to take place at the World Radiocommunication Conference 2019

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ITU and 5G

Framework of standards for International Mobile

Telecommunications (IMT), encompassing IMT-2000 and IMT-Advanced, spans the 3G and 4G industry perspectives and will continue to evolve as 5G with IMT-2020

Detailed investigation of the key elements of “5G”

well underway, based on a partnership between ITU-R, mobile broadband industry and wide range of stakeholders in the “5G” community

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ITU Vision for 5G

Recommendation ITU-R M.2083 : describes the framework and overall objectives of IMT systems

for the year 2020 and beyond establish the vision for IMT for 2020 and beyond, by describing

potential user and application trends, growth in traffic, technological trends and spectrum implications, and by providing guidelines on the framework and the capabilities for IMT for 2020 and beyond

IMT-2020’s envisaged usage scenarios and applications includes concepts such as smart cities, smart homes, m-health, m-education, connected cars, connected industrial automation, wearables usage scenarios and applications currently under

development in various segments of industry, government, and academia, thereby providing for a very fast-paced growth

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Trends

rapid uptake of smartphones, tablets and innovative mobile applications created by users has resulted in a tremendous increase in the volume of mobile data traffic

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- 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 8 000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

201…

(mill

ions

)

Mobile cellular subscriptions

- 500

1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000

(mill

ions

)

Active mobile broadband subscriptions

Connected devices worlwide Projected mobile internet users and penetration worlwide

Séminaire de vulgarisation des textes d’application des lois du secteur des télécommunications et TIC, Limbe, 19 – 24 août

2013 9

6.3 7.0 7.8 8.8 9.8 10.4 11.0 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.1 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.2

2.6 3.0 3.4 3.7 4.1 4.5 5.0

3.2 2.8 2.3 1.5

0.8 0.4

0 2 4 6 8

10 12 14 16 18

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Billi

on

Smartphone Tablet and other smart devices Feature phone

7 10 14 19

26 34

45

57

70

84

97

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Billi

on

M2M Subscriptions

Trends

Estimation of global M2M subscriptions

Estimation of global mobile subscriptions with different categories

Trends

the number of devices accessing the network are

expected to increase due to the emerging applications of Internet of Things (IoT); technologies such as beamforming, massive-Multiple

Input Multiple Output (MIMO) are easier to implement in higher frequencies due to short wavelength; wide contiguous bandwidth would enhance data

delivery efficiency and ease the complexity of hardware implementation; the cell size is being reduced (e.g. the order of some

tens of metres) to provide larger area traffic capacity in dense areas;

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Drivers for 5G : user and application trends

Mobile devices : Future IMT systems should support emerging new use cases,

including applications requiring very high data rate communications, a large number of connected devices, and ultra-low latency and high reliability applications

Support for very low latency and high reliability human-centric communication : instantaneous connectivity wherein applications need to exhibit

“flash” behaviour without waiting times will enable the development of new applications, e.g. in health, safety, office, entertainment, and other sectors key factor for the success of cloud services and virtual reality and

augmented reality applications Support for very low latency and high reliability machine-

centric communication : machine-to-machine (M2M) communication with real-time

constraints will drive the design of new applications : Driverless cars, enhanced mobile cloud services, real-time traffic control optimization, emergency and disaster response, smart grid, e-health or efficient industrial communications

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Drivers for 5G : user and application trends

Support for high user density : Users will expect a satisfactory end-user experience in the presence

of a large number of concurrent users, for example in a crowd with a high traffic density per unit area and a large number of handsets and machines/devices per unit area - audio-visual content to be provided concurrently across an entire cell or infotainment applications in shopping malls, stadiums, open air festivals, or other public events that attract a lot of people, use of phone while in unexpected traffic jams, or when travelling in public transportation systems ;

Maintaining high quality at high mobility : similar user experience for end-users on the move and when they

are static e.g. at home or in the office deployment of applications on user equipment located within a

moving platform such as cars or high-speed trains. Enhanced multimedia services : demand for mobile high-definition multimedia will increase in many

areas beyond entertainment, such as medical treatment, safety, and security User devices will get enhanced media consumption capabilities, such

as Ultra-High Definition display, multi-view High Definition display, mobile 3D projections, immersive video conferencing, and augmented reality and mixed reality display and interface.

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Drivers for 5G : user and application trends

Internet of Things : the number of connected devices will grow rapidly and is

expected to exceed the number of human user devices in the future : smart phones, sensors, actuators, cameras, vehicles, etc., ranging from low-complexity devices to highly complex and advanced devices potential fields for further growth of the Internet of Things

(IoT) : Smart energy distribution grid system, agriculture, healthcare, vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-road infrastructure communication

Convergence of applications : New applications are increasingly being delivered over IMT,

including e-Government, public protection and disaster relief communication, education, linear and on-demand audio-visual content, and e-health.

Ultra-accurate positioning applications : location-based service applications that provide improved

emergency rescue services, as well as precise ground based navigation service for unmanned vehicles or drones may expand extensively

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Drivers for 5G: massive growth in future mobile traffic

Main drivers behind the anticipated traffic growth : Video usage: Increasing growth of the usage of video-on-demand services and resolution

of these videos By 2020, people will want to watch high-resolution audio-visual content

(HD/UHD), regardless of the way the content is delivered ; Device proliferation: In 2016, about 1 in 7 people (or about 1 billion) are forecasted to purchase

new smartphones. By 2017, more than 1.4 billion smartphones and tablets will be shipped,

becoming the fastest-growing category of consumer electronics Application uptake: rate at which applications are being adopted is accelerating annual global downloading of applications was 102 billion apps in 2013 and

will grow to 270 billion in 2017 (139, 180 and 225 billion in 2014, 2015 and 2016, respectively). most applications are not used more than once after being downloaded. This

mobile application uptake and the usage of those will contribute to increased mobile broadband traffic and, in addition, the amount of regular updates/upgrades to those hundreds of billions applications will also increase mobile broadband traffic.

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Drivers for future traffic increase

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Approaches to cope with traffic increase

Spectrum availability

Amount of spectrum used by radio interface.

Technical enhancements

Migration to innovative, more efficient techniques such as new radio interfaces, codec improvements, use of multicast and reduction in energy consumption.

New network structure/topology

Number of radio sites and smaller cell sizes.

Offloading traffic Off-loading of traffic onto licence-exempt frequencies frees up capacity in the macro network layer.

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Role of IMT for 2020 and beyond

Considering the key trends, IMT should continue to contribute to the following : Wireless infrastructure to connect the world; New ICT market: Bridging the Digital Divide; New ways of communication; New forms of education; Promote Energy Efficiency; Social changes; New art and culture

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Usage scenarios for IMT for 2020 and beyond

18 M.2083-02

Gigabytes in a second

Smart home/building

Voice

Smart city

3D video, UHD screens

Work and play in the cloud

Augmented reality

Industry automation

Mission critical application

Self driving car

Massive machine typecommunications

Ultra-reliable and low latencycommunications

Enhanced mobile broadband

Future IMT

Integrated radio-access technologies

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Capabilities of IMT-2020

20 M.2083-03

User experienceddata rate(Mbit/s)

100

Spectrumefficiency

IMT-2020

3×

500

1106

10

20

100×Mobility(km/h)

Latency(ms)

Connection density(devices/km )

2

Networkenergy efficiency

Area trafficcapacity

(Mbit/s/m )2

Peak data rate(Gbit/s)

10

1×

400350

10105

10×1×

10.1

1

IMT-advanced

Importance of key capabilities in different usage

scenarios

21 M.2083-04

User experienceddata rate

Spectrumefficiency

Mobility

LatencyConnection density

Networkenergy efficiency

Area trafficcapacity

Enhanced mobilebroadband

Peakdata rate

Massive machinetype communications

Ultra-reliableand low latencycommunications

Low

Medium

High importance

Spectrum implications

Contiguous and broader channel bandwidths than available to current IMT systems would be desirable to support continued growth of traffic : availability of spectrum resources that could support broader,

contiguous channel bandwidths should be explored; Research efforts must be continued to increase spectrum

efficiency and to explore the availability of contiguous broad channels.

No single frequency range satisfies all the criteria required to deploy IMT systems, particularly in countries with diverse geographic and population density: to meet the capacity and coverage requirements of IMT

systems multiple frequency ranges would be needed there are differences in the markets and deployments and

timings of the mobile data growth in different countries If additional spectrum is made available for IMT,

potential implications to the existing uses and users of that spectrum need to be addressed

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Spectrum harmonization

Existing and newly allocated and identified

spectrum need to be harmonized : economies of scale, global roaming, equipment design

complexity reduction, battery life preservation, affordable equipment, spectrum efficiency improvement, potential reduction of cross border interference

mobile device contains multiple antennas and associated radio frequency front-ends to enable operation in multiple bands to facilitate roaming : While mobile devices can benefit from common chipsets,

variances in frequency arrangements necessitate different components to accommodate these differences, which leads to higher equipment design complexity

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Contiguous and wider spectrum bandwidth

Future IMT systems are expected to provide gigabit per-second user data rate services : Currently available frequency bands and their bandwidth differ

across countries and regions and this leads to many problems associated with device complexity and possible interference issues Contiguous, broader and harmonized frequency bands, aligned with

future technology development, would address these problems and would facilitate achievement of the objectives of future IMT systems

Bandwidths to support the different usage scenarios (e.g. enhanced mobile broadband, ultra-reliable and low-latency communications, and massive machine type communications) would vary : For those scenarios requiring several hundred MHz up to at least 1

GHz, there would be a need to consider wideband contiguous spectrum above 6 GHz

Spectrum and bandwidth flexibility : system design should be flexible to handle different scenarios, and in

particular the capability to operate at different frequency ranges, including higher frequencies and wider channel bandwidths than today

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Suitable frequency ranges for deployment scenario

Three key frequency ranges are currently under consideration for different 5G deployment scenarios: Sub-1 GHz, 1-6 GHz and above 6 GHz. Sub-1 GHz :

• ideal for coverage band • very useful means of extending a superior 5G user experience into rural areas and

deep inside buildings • band could not support extremely wide bandwidths and therefore enable the

fastest possible data rates • may help prevent a new digital divide by ensuring the improved experience

reaches more people in both developed, and especially developing, markets. 1 - 6 GHz :

• numerous existing mobile bands between 1 GHz - 3.6 GHz • offer a reasonable mixture of coverage and capacity • unlikely to be able to support the highest potential 5G data rates without carrier

aggregation. Above 6 GHz :

• support very wide channel sizes and therefore extremely fast data rates, and massive additional mobile network capacity, making it fertile territory for 5G research.

• must be identified at the WRC in 2019, which will require that governments work together extensively to agree a common set of harmonised new bands

• radio propagation qualities would favour small cell sizes • heavy reliance on these bands without complimentary lower frequency spectrum

may mean 5G services are limited to small urban areas and inside buildings 25

What next on spectrum issues?

Before optimum 5G services can be launched : new IMT spectrum must first be identified for mobile broadband at the ITU’s

World Radiocommunication Conference (WRC) equipment then needs to be built, existing users may need to be moved and the

terms of spectrum licences agreed and then auctioned; It may be possible to shorten the timeframes involved by refarming existing

mobile spectrum, or new bands which were agreed at the WRC in 2015, but this may not provide sufficient spectrum to support all the possible 5G usage scenarios and performance requirements on its own

Considerable research is currently being conducted into the use of much

higher frequency bands for 5G than are used for existing mobile services : range from 6 GHz to as high as 300 GHz, according to some reports, which are

capable of supporting the very wide bandwidths that would be required for the fastest possible 5G data rates due to their radio propagation characteristics, these bands are likely to be

heavily reliant on small cells and could have limited practical usage potential beyond urban areas. Significant cooperation between the mobile industry, international standards-

setting bodies and national and regional regulatory bodies/governments is required to agree on the likely requirements for 5G coverage levels; if extremely fast data speeds form the basis of the 5G standard, these may be extremely difficult to deliver outside of urban areas without significant amounts of new low frequency spectrum

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Phase and expected timelines for IMT-2020

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M.2083-05

2000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020~

Spectrum forIMT Spectrum implementation

Enhancement and related development of standards(Rec. ITU-R M.1457 and ITU-R M.2012)

Systems deploymentIMT-

andIMT-advanced

and theirenhancement

2000

Evolution/Integration with other radio systemsOther radiosystems

~

New elementsto offer

capabilities of IMT-2020 Vision Requirements Standards

developmentStandards

enhancement

Systemsdeployment *

The sloped dotted lines in systems deployment indicate that the exact starting point cannot yet be fixed.

: Possible spectrum identification at WRC-15 and WRC-19

* : Systems to satisfy the technical performance requirements of IMT-2020 could be developed before year 2020 in some countries.: Possible deployment around the year 2020 in some countries (including trial systems)

Conclusion

IMT systems serve as a communication tool for people and a

facilitator which assists the development of other industry sectors, such as medical science, transportation, and education. The mobile industry, academic institutions and national governments

are currently actively investigating what technologies could be used in 5G networks and the types of applications these could and should support. The speed and reach of 5G services will be heavily dependent on access to the right amount and type of spectrum Significant cooperation is required to agree on the likely

requirements for 5G coverage levels. To ensure 5G services provide good coverage that extends beyond small urban hotspots, it will be important to ensure that there is sufficient spectrum available for this important purpose. Harmonization of spectrum for IMT will lead to commonality of

equipment and is desirable for achieving economies of scale and affordability of equipment

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THANKS FOR YOUR KIND ATTENTION

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