The Public between The Public between elections: elections:

A Check on Presidential A Check on Presidential Power?Power?

Bush’s job approval Bush’s job approval (CNN/USAToday/Gallup)(CNN/USAToday/Gallup)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2/1/2001 6/17/2002 6/27/2003 11/19/2004 1/20/2006 5/1-3/08

Bush’s job approvalBush’s job approvalCBS/NYTimes poll 10/14/2008CBS/NYTimes poll 10/14/2008

ApproveApprove DisapproveDisapprove

RepublicansRepublicans 5353 3535

DemocratsDemocrats 55 9292

IndependentIndependentss

2020 6464

Why do presidents’ Why do presidents’ job approval ratings job approval ratings go up and down?go up and down?

How do people form How do people form opinions about the opinions about the president’s job president’s job performance?performance?

PartisanshipPartisanship

The economyThe economy

How do people form How do people form opinions about the opinions about the president’s job president’s job performance?performance?

PartisanshipPartisanship

The economyThe economy

News about outcomesNews about outcomes

How do people form How do people form opinions about the opinions about the president’s job president’s job performance?performance?

PartisanshipPartisanship

The economyThe economy

News about outcomesNews about outcomes

Rally effectsRally effects

What are the consequences What are the consequences of changes in of changes in presidential presidential approval ratings?approval ratings?

Can affect relationships with Can affect relationships with members of Congressmembers of Congress

Can affect presidential strategyCan affect presidential strategy

Can have electoral impactsCan have electoral impacts

How do Presidents How do Presidents try to manipulate try to manipulate public opinion to public opinion to their advantage?their advantage?

Going Public Going Public

A strategy whereby the president A strategy whereby the president promotes himself and his policies promotes himself and his policies in Washington by appealing to the in Washington by appealing to the American public for supportAmerican public for support

TR on his relationship TR on his relationship with Republicans in with Republicans in the Senatethe Senate

““Gradually I was forced to abandon Gradually I was forced to abandon the effort to persuade them to come the effort to persuade them to come my way, and then I achieved results my way, and then I achieved results only by appealing over the heads of only by appealing over the heads of the Senate and House leaders to the the Senate and House leaders to the people, who were the masters of people, who were the masters of both of us.”both of us.”--The Works of Theodore Roosevelt (20: 342)--The Works of Theodore Roosevelt (20: 342)

Why is Going Public a more Why is Going Public a more common strategy in the common strategy in the late 20late 20thth Century? Century?

Rise in presidential travelRise in presidential travel Rise in accessible communications Rise in accessible communications

(TV)(TV) Rise in animosity of national pressRise in animosity of national press Declining number of people Declining number of people

watching major television addresseswatching major television addresses Move from institutionalized pluralism Move from institutionalized pluralism

to individualized pluralismto individualized pluralism

Public Appearances of Presidents (in and out of Washington),

from Going Public

Presidential Addresses (from Going Public)

Going Public:

Bush gets great press in the San Francisco Chronicle for a minor local speech, May 3, 2003.

How do Presidents How do Presidents try to manipulate try to manipulate public opinion to public opinion to their advantage?their advantage?

Organization of the Organization of the White House/ White House/ Executive Office of the Executive Office of the PresidentPresident Office of CommunicationsOffice of Communications Office of Public LiasionOffice of Public Liasion Office of Public AffairsOffice of Public Affairs Political Advisers on staffPolitical Advisers on staff

Doonesbury 5/1/03

Rally effectsRally effects

Bush’s job approval Bush’s job approval (CNN/USAToday/Gallup)(CNN/USAToday/Gallup)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2/1/2001 6/17/2002 6/27/2003 11/19/2004 1/20/2006 5/1-3/08

Bush’s job approval Bush’s job approval (CNN/USAToday/Gallup)(CNN/USAToday/Gallup)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2/1/2001 6/17/2002 6/27/2003 11/19/2004 1/20/2006 5/1-3/08

Terrorist AttacksInvasion of Iraq

Saddam Hussein found in

hole

What is a rally effect?What is a rally effect?

A sudden and substantial increase A sudden and substantial increase in public approvalin public approval

In response to dramatic In response to dramatic internationalinternational events events

What creates a rally?What creates a rally?

Major military developments Major military developments (positive)(positive)

SummitsSummits Sudden military interventionsSudden military interventions Major diplomatic actionsMajor diplomatic actions Dramatic technological Dramatic technological

developmentsdevelopments Attacks on American soilAttacks on American soil

Why?Why?

Invokes patriotismInvokes patriotism

Invoke head of state roleInvoke head of state role

Depend on reaction of partisan Depend on reaction of partisan opponentsopponents

ConsequencesConsequences

No long term effects for president No long term effects for president or partyor party

Short term effects can impact Short term effects can impact electionselections