the puerto rico economic activity index · for the economic activity of puerto rico. it is highly...

Release Date: February 21, 2020 Go to Table of Content

The Puerto Rico Economic Activity Index

(“EDB-EAI”)

December 2019

Prepared by the Office of Economic Studies

Economic Development Bank for Puerto Rico

https://www.bde.pr.gov/BDESite/PRED.html

http://www.bde.pr.gov/


The Economic Development Bank for Puerto Rico (EDB), the Government of Puerto Rico, its instrumentalities and agencies (the “Government”), and each oftheir respective officers, directors, employees, agents, attorneys, advisors, members, partners or affiliates (collectively, with EDB and the Government, the“Parties”) make no representation or warranty, express or implied, to any third party with respect to the information contained herein and all Partiesexpressly disclaim any such representations or warranties. The Government has had to rely upon preliminary information and unaudited financials for 2015,2016 and 2017 in addition to the inherent complexities resulting from a prolonged period of lack of financial transparency. As such, EDB and theGovernment have made certain assumptions that may materially change once those financial statements are fully audited. The Parties do not owe or acceptany duty or responsibility to any reader or recipient of this presentation, whether in contract or tort, and shall not be liable for or in respect of any loss,damage (including without limitation consequential damages or lost profits) or expense of whatsoever nature of such third party that may be caused by, oralleged to be caused by, the use of this presentation or that is otherwise consequent upon the gaining of access to this document by such third party. TheParties do not undertake any duty to update the information contained herein. This document does not constitute an audit conducted in accordance withgenerally accepted auditing standards, an examination of internal controls or other attestation or review services in accordance with standards establishedby the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants or any other organization. Accordingly, the Parties do not express an opinion or any other form ofassurance on the financial statements or any financial or other information or the internal controls of the Government and the information contained herein.Any statements and assumptions contained in this document, whether forward-looking or historical, are not guarantees of future performance and involvecertain risks, uncertainties, estimates and other assumptions made in this document. The economic and financial condition of the Government and itsinstrumentalities is affected by various legal, financial, social, economic, environmental, governmental and political factors. These factors can be verycomplex, may vary from one fiscal year to the next and are frequently the result of actions taken or not taken, not only by the Government, but also byFinancial Oversight and Management Board for Puerto Rico and other third party entities such as the government of the United States. Examples of thesefactors include, but are not limited to,: – Any future actions taken or not taken by the United States government related to Medicaid or the Affordable CareAct; – The amount and timing of receipt of any distributions from the Federal Emergency Management Agency and private insurance companies to repairdamage caused by Hurricanes María and Irma; – The amount and timing of receipt of any amounts allocated to Puerto Rico and provided under theCommunity Disaster Loans Program; – The amount and timing of receipt of any additional amounts appropriated by the United States government toaddress the funding gap described herein; – The timeline for completion of the work being done by the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (“PREPA”) torepair PREPA’s electric system and infrastructure and the impact of any future developments or issues related to PREPA’s electric system and infrastructureon Puerto Rico’s economic growth; – The impact of the measures described herein on outmigration; and – The impact of the resolution of any pendinglitigation in the Title III cases Because of the uncertainty and unpredictability of these factors, their impact cannot be included in the assumptions containedin this document. Future events and actual results may differ materially from any estimates, projections, or statements contained herein. Nothing in thisdocument should be considered as an express or implied commitment to do or take, or to refrain from taking, any action by EDB, the Government, or anygovernment instrumentality in the Government or an admission of any fact or future event. Nothing in this document shall be considered a solicitation,recommendation or advice to any person to participate, pursue or support a particular course of action or transaction, to purchase or sell any security, or tomake any investment decision. By receiving this document, the recipient shall be deemed to have acknowledged and agreed to the terms of theselimitations. This document may contain capitalized terms that are not defined herein, or may contain terms that are discussed in other documents or thatare commonly understood. You should make no assumptions about the meaning of capitalized terms that are not defined, and you should refer questions toEDB ([email protected]) should clarification be required.

Disclaimer

2

mailto:[email protected]


Table of Content

Section Page

Definitions 4

Description of the EDB-EAI Index 5

EDB-EAI Composition 6

Interpretation of the EDB-EAI 7-9

EDB-EAI Overview December 2019 10

EDB-EAI Monthly Components (1/2014 to 12/2019) 11-12

EDB-EAI: Data 2011-2019 13-17

EDB-EAI: Graphs 18-19

Conclusions 20

Contact Info 21

3


Definitions

EDB Economic Development Bank for Puerto Rico

GDB Government Development Bank for Puerto Rico

EAI Economic Activity Index

FY Puerto Rico’s Fiscal Year

TCB The Conference Board is a Company that promotes the understanding of business practices and economic cycles and supports and undertake nonpartisan analysis and research.

GNP Puerto Rico’s Gross Product

GNP54 Puerto Rico’s Real Gross Product

BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics of the United States Department of Labor and Human Resources

PRTHA Puerto Rico Highways and Transportation Authority

PREPA Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority

kWh Kilowatts hour

s. a. Seasonally adjusted

y-o-y Year-over-year

m-o-m Month-over-month

COFINA Puerto Rico Sales Tax Financing Corporation (Spanish acronym)

ARRA American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009

4


Description of the

EDB-EAI

• The EDB-EAI is a coincident indexfor the economic activity of PuertoRico. It is highly correlated toPuerto Rico’s real GNP in bothlevel and annual growth rates.

• This index’s methodology is similarto that used in TCB’s coincidentindex of the US economy. Thismethodology follows a standardprocedure to adjust the data forseasonality and volatility factors.

5

Real Gross National Product as a function of the EDB Economic Activity Index

y = 49.115x - 395.27R² = 0.937

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

80 100 120 140 160 180

GN

P in

mill

ion

of

19

54

do

llars

EDB-EAI new

Relationship on the levels: (FY1981-FY2018)

y = 0.7958x + 0.0048R² = 0.9063

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

GN

P5

4 a

nn

ual

gro

wth

EDB-EAI annual growth

Relationship on the growth rates (FY1982-FY2018)


EDB-Economic Activity

Index Composition

• The EDB-EAI is made up of 4 indicators:

• Total Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey/ Thousandsof employees). This variable is provided by the Bureau of LaborStatistics of the US Department of Labor and Human Resources(BLS) on a monthly basis. The establishment survey providesemployment, hours, and earnings estimates based on payrollrecords of business establishments in Puerto Rico.

• Total Electric Power Generation (Millions of kWh). This variableis provided by the Puerto Rico Power Authority (PREPA) on amonthly basis. This indicator includes the electric powergeneration produced by petroleum, natural gas, coal andrenewable energy sources. The renewable energy is supplied byutility-scale solar photovoltaic generating capacity, two windfarms and landfill gas sources.

• Cement Sales (Millions of 94lb. bags). This variable is providedby CEMEX Puerto Rico & Argos Puerto Rico LLC on a monthlybasis. The data is compiled and converted by the EDB.

• Gas Consumption (Millions of gallons). This variable is providedby Puerto Rico Highways and Transportation Authority (PRHTA)on a monthly basis. The EDB adjusts the series with a 3-monthmoving average.

• Advantages of the EDB-EAI:

• Readily available in a monthly basisto the financial community.

• Highly correlated measuring tool ofPuerto Rico’s real GNP.

• Reliable tool to monitor currenttrends in Puerto Rico’s economyfor economists, investors andmultiple players among thefinancial community.

6

EDB Economic Activity Index Highlights


Interpretation of the

EDB-EAI

• When annualized, the level of the EAI is highly correlatedwith the level of the real GNP (with a Pearson correlationcoefficient of 0.9680; i.e. 97% for FY1981-FY2018).

• The annual growth rates of both variables are also highlycorrelated (with a Pearson correlation coefficient of0.9520; i.e. 95% for FY1982-FY2018).

• Nevertheless, the annual growth rate of the EAI IS NOTthe same as the annual growth rate of the real GNP, sincebeing highly correlated does not mean being identical.

• In order to calculate an approximate of the real GNP trendfrom the EAI annual growth, the EDB estimates a linearregression model relating both variables.

• Plugging-in the EAI annual growth rates into the resultingequation produces real GNP annual growth rate estimatesrelatively comparable to the real GNP annual growthfigures published by the Puerto Rico Planning Board.

The EDB-EAI is an indicator of generaleconomic activity, not a directmeasurement of Puerto Rico’s real GNP.The annual growth rate of the EAI is notthe same as the annual growth rate ofthe Island’s real GNP. The EAI does notinclude all the economic sectors thatcomprise the GNP.

7


The graph compares actual real GNP growth rates with estimated real GNP growth rates based on the EDB-EAI.

Sources: Puerto Rico Planning Board and EDB.

1.5%

-0.3%

2.1%

2.7%

1.9%

0.5%

-1.2%

-2.9%

-3.8% -3.6%

-1.7%

0.5%

-0.1%-1.8%

-0.8%

-1.6%-3.0%

-4.7%

2.2%

1.1%

-0.5%

1.8%2.2%

1.7%0.6%

-0.7%

-1.3%

-3.0%-3.6%

-1.7%

0.5% 0.3%

-2.0%

-1.1%

-0.7%

-0.7%

-4.6%

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Real GNP vs. Real GNP estimated with the EDB-EAI*

Real GNP annual growth rate Real GNP annual growth rate estimated with the EDB-EAI

Interpretation of the EDB-EAI

8

* The EDB-EAI is an indicator of general economic activity, not a direct measurement of real GNP. The annual growth rate of the EAI is not the same as the annual growth rate of the real GNP. The EAI does not include all the economic sectors that comprise the GNP.


The EDB-EAI is an indicator of generaleconomic activity, not a directmeasurement of the real GNP. Theannual growth rate of the EAI is notthe same as the annual growth rate ofthe real GNP. The EAI does not includeall the economic sectors that comprisethe GNP.

• Real GNP growth estimates based on the EAI have beenrelatively close (although not identical) to the actual realGNP growth figures, though they do maintain the same trend.

• The real GNP growth for FY2017 was estimated at minus0.7% using a regression equation with the growth of the EAIas the independent variable, while the P.R. Planning Boardreported a decline of 3.0%.

• But then, for FY2018, the index-based estimate for the realGNP growth was -4.6% compared to the -4.7% currentPlanning Board’s estimate for that year.

• On a methodological note, the index’s annual growth iscalculated as the annual percentage change of its twelve-month average.

Fiscal

Year

EDB-EAI

annual

growth

Real GNP annual

growth

estimated using

the EDB-EAI

Current

real GNP

annual

growth

2002 -1.2% -0.5% -0.3%

2003 1.6% 1.8% 2.1%

2004 2.2% 2.2% 2.7%

2005 1.5% 1.7% 1.9%

2006 0.1% 0.6% 0.5%

2007 -1.5% -0.7% -1.2%

2008 -2.3% -1.3% -2.9%

2009 -4.4% -3.0% -3.8%

2010 -5.2% -3.6% -3.6%

2011 -2.7% -1.7% -1.7%

2012 0.0% 0.5% 0.5%

2013 -0.2% 0.3% -0.1%

2014 -3.1% -2.0% -1.8%

2015 -1.9% -1.1% -0.8%

2016 -1.5% -0.7% -1.6%

2017 -1.5% -0.7% -3.0%

2018 -6.4% -4.6% -4.7%

Sources: Puerto Rico Planning Board and EDB.

Interpretation of the

EDB-EAI

9


EDB-EAI Overview –

December 2019• The EDB-EAI, s. a., recorded 122.3 in December 2019, a 1.0%

increase compared to December 2018, the third positive growthafter four year-over-year consecutive declines, and increased by0.4% when compared to November 2019. The annual comparison iswith respect to December 2018, when electricity was restored tothose customers that PREPA deemed as able to receive power safelyafter the impact of hurricanes Irma and Maria.

• For fiscal year 2019 the growth was of 5.8% with respect to fiscalyear 2018. The increment observed during fiscal year 2019 is the firstpositive growth after six consecutive declines. However, for theperiod July – December of fiscal year 2020 it remain unchanged.Furthermore, the EDB-EAI reached a 1.1% growth during 2019, thesecond consecutive annual positive growth, after five years ofuninterrupted reductions.

• Total non-farm payroll employment, s. a., for December 2019averaged 868,700 employees, a downturn of 0.6% in a m-o-m basis,and an annual decline of 0.1%.

• Electric power generation, s. a., for December 2019 totaled 1,602.7million kWh, a 0.3% increase in a m-o-m basis, and an annualincrement of 4.9%.

• The preliminary number for gasoline consumption*, s. a., inDecember 2019 totaled 81.9 million of gallons, 11.1% aboveNovember 2019, and an 8.5% increase when compared to December2018.

• Cement sales, s. a., for December 2019 totaled 1.15 million of 94lb.bags, a 5.6% decrease in a m-o-m basis, and an annual decrease of1.3%.

In December 2019, the EDB-EAI s. a.increased by 1.0% in a y-o-y andaugmented by 0.4% in a m-o-mbasis.

10

Sources: BLS, PREPA, PRHTA and EDB.

* EDB applies a 3-month moving average adjustment to the gasoline consumption data.


• Total non-farm payroll employment, s. a., forDecember 2019 averaged 868,700 employeesafter an average of 874,200 employees inNovember, a 0.6% reduction for December2019 over November 2019, and an annual lossof 0.1%.

Sources: BLS and PREPA.

Total Non-Farm Payroll Employment*(Thousand of jobs)

780

800

820

840

860

880

900

920

940

Jan

-14

Ap

r-1

4

Jul-

14

Oct

-14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-1

5

Jul-

15

Oct

-15

Jan

-16

Ap

r-1

6

Jul-

16

Oct

-16

Jan

-17

Ap

r-1

7

Jul-

17

Oct

-17

Jan

-18

Ap

r-1

8

Jul-

18

Oct

-18

Jan

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jul-

19

Oct

-19

• Electric power generation**, s. a. forDecember 2019, totaled 1,602.7 million kWhand 1,597.6 million kWh in November 2019,for an increase of 0.3% in a m-o-m basis, andan annual raise of 4.9%.

Electric Power Generation*(Million of kWh)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Jan

-14

Ap

r-1

4

Jul-

14

Oct

-14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-1

5

Jul-

15

Oct

-15

Jan

-16

Ap

r-1

6

Jul-

16

Oct

-16

Jan

-17

Ap

r-1

7

Jul-

17

Oct

-17

Jan

-18

Ap

r-1

8

Jul-

18

Oct

-18

Jan

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jul-

19

Oct

-19

* Seasonally adjusted with TRAMO-SEATS Method.

** The monthly electric power generation indicator includes:energy produced by petroleum, natural gas, coal andrenewable energy sources. The renewable energy issupplied by utility-scale solar photovoltaic generatingcapacity, two wind farms and landfill gases sources.

EDB-EAI Monthly Components (1/2014 to 12/2019)

11


Sources: PRHTA and EDB.

• Cement sales, s. a. for December 2019 totaled1.15 million of 94 lb. bags and 1.2 million of 94lb. bags in November 2019, a reduction of 5.6%in a m-o-m basis, and an annual cut of 1.3%.

Cement Sales*(94lb. bags sold, in thousands)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Jan

-14

Ap

r-1

4

Jul-

14

Oct

-14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-1

5

Jul-

15

Oct

-15

Jan

-16

Ap

r-1

6

Jul-

16

Oct

-16

Jan

-17

Ap

r-1

7

Jul-

17

Oct

-17

Jan

-18

Ap

r-1

8

Jul-

18

Oct

-18

Jan

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jul-

19

Oct

-19

• The preliminary estimate of gasolineconsumption**, s. a. for December 2019 was81.9 million of gallons and 73.7 million ofgallons during November 2019, an increment of11.1% in a m-o-m basis, and an annual rise of8.5%.

Gasoline Consumption*(Millions of gallons)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan

-14

Ap

r-1

4

Jul-

14

Oct

-14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-1

5

Jul-

15

Oct

-15

Jan

-16

Ap

r-1

6

Jul-

16

Oct

-16

Jan

-17

Ap

r-1

7

Jul-

17

Oct

-17

Jan

-18

Ap

r-1

8

Jul-

18

Oct

-18

Jan

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jul-

19

Oct

-19

* Seasonally adjusted with TRAMO-SEATS Method.** The EDB applies a 3-month moving average adjustment to

the gasoline consumption data.

EDB-EAI Monthly Components (1/2014 to 12/2019)

12


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

JULY 133.9 131.8 134.1 129.6 126.2 125.6 123.6 121.5 121.7 120.6

AUGUST 133.5 131.3 133.7 129.4 126.3 124.7 123.5 121.3 121.8 121.1

SEPTEMBER 133.4 131.6 133.7 129.4 125.6 124.3 123.4 114.9 121.6 121.2

OCTOBER 133.9 132.3 133.6 129.6 125.9 124.3 123.3 104.2 121.1 121.7

NOVEMBER 133.7 133.5 133.7 129.4 125.5 124.7 122.5 99.0 121.4 121.8

DECEMBER 133.2 133.7 133.3 128.9 126.0 124.7 122.3 103.3 121.1 122.3

JANUARY 132.6 133.5 133.2 128.2 125.8 124.4 121.4 113.4 121.3

FEBRUARY 132.6 133.6 132.7 127.7 126.2 123.9 121.7 117.5 121.1

MARCH 132.7 133.5 132.1 127.7 126.3 123.8 121.3 118.8 121.4

APRIL 132.5 133.6 131.4 128.1 126.4 123.5 121.7 119.5 121.1

MAY 131.9 133.7 130.8 127.5 126.5 123.5 121.7 120.2 120.7

JUNE 131.7 134.2 130.0 127.2 126.1 123.4 122.0 121.1 120.4

YEAR OVER YEAR PERCENTAGE CHANGE

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

JULY -4.3 -1.6 1.7 -3.4 -2.6 -0.5 -1.6 -1.7 0.2 -0.9

AUGUST -4.1 -1.7 1.8 -3.2 -2.4 -1.3 -1.0 -1.8 0.4 -0.5

SEPTEMBER -3.6 -1.3 1.6 -3.2 -3.0 -1.1 -0.7 -6.8 5.8 -0.3

OCTOBER -2.4 -1.2 1.0 -3.0 -2.9 -1.2 -0.8 -15.5 16.2 0.5

NOVEMBER -2.2 -0.1 0.2 -3.2 -3.0 -0.6 -1.7 -19.2 22.6 0.3

DECEMBER -2.4 0.4 -0.3 -3.3 -2.3 -1.0 -1.9 -15.5 17.1 1.0

JANUARY -2.4 0.7 -0.2 -3.8 -1.8 -1.1 -2.4 -6.6 7.0

FEBRUARY -2.4 0.8 -0.7 -3.8 -1.1 -1.8 -1.8 -3.4 3.1

MARCH -2.3 0.6 -1.1 -3.3 -1.1 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 2.2

APRIL -2.4 0.8 -1.6 -2.5 -1.3 -2.3 -1.4 -1.9 1.3

MAY -2.5 1.4 -2.2 -2.5 -0.8 -2.3 -1.5 -1.2 0.4

JUNE -1.9 1.9 -3.2 -2.1 -0.9 -2.1 -1.2 -0.7 -0.6

SUMMARY DATA

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

FISCAL YEAR *

AVERAGE 133.0 133.0 132.7 128.6 126.1 124.2 122.4 114.6 121.2

DIFFERENCE -3.7 0.1 -0.3 -4.1 -2.5 -1.8 -1.9 -7.8 6.7

% CHANGE -2.7 0.0 -0.2 -3.1 -1.9 -1.5 -1.5 -6.4 5.8

JUL-DEC

AVERAGE 133.6 132.4 133.7 129.4 125.9 124.7 123.1 110.7 121.4 121.5

DIFFERENCE -4.4 -1.2 1.3 -4.3 -3.5 -1.2 -1.6 -12.4 10.7 0.0

% CHANGE -3.2 -0.9 1.0 -3.2 -2.7 -0.9 -1.3 -10.1 9.7 0.0

CALENDAR YEAR

AVERAGE 132.3 133.7 130.5 126.8 125.5 123.4 116.2 119.9 121.2

DIFFERENCE -2.2 1.4 -3.2 -3.7 -1.4 -2.0 -7.3 3.8 1.3

% CHANGE -1.6 1.0 -2.4 -2.8 -1.1 -1.6 -5.9 3.2 1.1

JAN-DEC

AVERAGE 132.3 133.7 130.5 126.8 125.5 123.4 116.2 119.9 121.2

DIFFERENCE -2.2 1.4 -3.2 -3.7 -1.4 -2.0 -7.3 3.8 1.3

% CHANGE -1.6 1.0 -2.4 -2.8 -1.1 -1.6 -5.9 3.2 1.1

* Runs from July of the previous year to June current year.

Source: EDB. *Base period: January 1980=100.

EDB Economic Activity Index* 2011-2020

13


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

JULY 927.4 925.1 941.2 924.3 908.8 901.0 894.9 875.4 862.7 878.8

AUGUST 928.4 923.3 941.7 924.3 908.4 899.5 893.2 874.8 863.4 878.5

SEPTEMBER 926.5 925.2 942.5 921.2 907.5 898.8 894.8 869.6 866.3 873.6

OCTOBER 924.7 926.3 941.7 920.1 907.1 897.9 893.7 827.3 867.3 870.9

NOVEMBER 922.9 930.3 939.9 918.8 906.9 896.2 891.6 839.9 867.9 874.2

DECEMBER 923.4 928.9 939.6 918.0 906.0 896.0 891.3 859.6 869.7 868.7

JANUARY 921.4 934.0 936.2 915.9 905.5 896.1 888.9 850.2 873.1

FEBRUARY 922.0 934.0 935.1 915.1 905.0 895.1 887.1 853.9 875.0

MARCH 922.1 935.3 933.9 913.5 904.6 894.3 885.9 856.0 872.2

APRIL 922.7 938.6 930.5 911.9 904.4 894.2 883.7 857.7 875.1

MAY 921.5 938.6 929.4 912.4 901.7 894.2 882.1 858.9 873.1

JUNE 921.9 941.1 928.2 909.4 900.9 893.8 879.5 861.0 870.9


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

JULY -3.1 -0.2 1.7 -1.8 -1.7 -0.9 -0.7 -2.2 -1.5 1.9

AUGUST -2.4 -0.6 2.0 -1.8 -1.7 -1.0 -0.7 -2.1 -1.3 1.7

SEPTEMBER -2.2 -0.1 1.9 -2.3 -1.5 -1.0 -0.4 -2.8 -0.4 0.8

OCTOBER -2.4 0.2 1.7 -2.3 -1.4 -1.0 -0.5 -7.4 4.8 0.4

NOVEMBER -2.2 0.8 1.0 -2.2 -1.3 -1.2 -0.5 -5.8 3.3 0.7

DECEMBER -2.0 0.6 1.2 -2.3 -1.3 -1.1 -0.5 -3.6 1.2 -0.1

JANUARY -2.1 1.4 0.2 -2.2 -1.1 -1.0 -0.8 -4.4 2.7

FEBRUARY -1.9 1.3 0.1 -2.1 -1.1 -1.1 -0.9 -3.7 2.5

MARCH -2.7 1.4 -0.1 -2.2 -1.0 -1.1 -0.9 -3.4 1.9

APRIL -1.1 1.7 -0.9 -2.0 -0.8 -1.1 -1.2 -2.9 2.0

MAY -1.3 1.9 -1.0 -1.8 -1.2 -0.8 -1.4 -2.6 1.6

JUNE -0.9 2.1 -1.4 -2.0 -0.9 -0.8 -1.6 -2.1 1.1

SUMMARY DATA

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

FISCAL YEAR *

AVERAGE 923.7 931.7 936.7 917.1 905.6 896.4 888.9 857.0 869.7

DIFFERENCE -19.2 8.0 4.9 -19.6 -11.5 -9.2 -7.5 -31.8 12.7

% CHANGE -2.0 0.9 0.5 -2.1 -1.3 -1.0 -0.8 -3.6 1.5

JUL-DEC

AVERAGE 925.6 926.5 941.1 921.1 907.4 898.2 893.2 857.8 866.2 874.1

DIFFERENCE -22.7 1.0 14.6 -20.0 -13.7 -9.2 -5.0 -35.5 8.5 7.9

% CHANGE -2.4 0.1 1.6 -2.1 -1.5 -1.0 -0.6 -4.0 1.0 0.9

CALENDAR YEAR

AVERAGE 924.2 939.0 926.7 910.2 901.0 893.9 871.1 861.3 873.7

DIFFERENCE -7.4 14.8 -12.3 -16.4 -9.3 -7.0 -22.8 -9.9 12.4

% CHANGE -0.8 1.6 -1.3 -1.8 -1.0 -0.8 -2.6 -1.1 1.4

JAN-DEC

AVERAGE 924.2 939.0 926.7 910.2 901.0 893.9 871.1 861.3 873.7

DIFFERENCE -7.4 14.8 -12.3 -16.4 -9.3 -7.0 -22.8 -9.9 12.4

% CHANGE -0.8 1.6 -1.3 -1.8 -1.0 -0.8 -2.6 -1.1 1.4

* Runs from July of the previous year to June current year. Source: EDB.

Total Non-Farm Payroll Employment, s. a., (000’s) 2011-2020

14


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

JULY 1,926.7 1,837.8 1,850.2 1,764.8 1,757.9 1,745.2 1,722.1 1,695.0 1,548.4 1,593.6

AUGUST 1,942.6 1,799.5 1,833.9 1,800.5 1,734.4 1,728.8 1,727.2 1,707.5 1,521.3 1,598.4

SEPTEMBER 1,921.3 1,860.0 1,892.5 1,818.6 1,716.8 1,735.7 1,642.2 889.2 1,549.5 1,619.6

OCTOBER 1,912.8 1,863.4 1,854.9 1,794.0 1,766.3 1,750.1 1,699.8 287.0 1,494.1 1,593.0

NOVEMBER 1,860.3 1,860.5 1,893.9 1,782.6 1,734.3 1,718.7 1,677.4 786.5 1,531.0 1,597.6

DECEMBER 1,837.8 1,838.3 1,840.9 1,746.4 1,711.9 1,750.7 1,715.9 1,072.5 1,528.5 1,602.7

JANUARY 1,894.4 1,841.9 1,826.4 1,788.6 1,753.2 1,737.7 1,656.9 1,235.6 1,507.3

FEBRUARY 1,885.5 1,820.4 1,810.4 1,770.0 1,762.9 1,736.1 1,688.7 1,227.7 1,522.6

MARCH 1,870.9 1,820.8 1,820.0 1,821.6 1,732.6 1,714.9 1,667.4 1,379.5 1,554.9

APRIL 1,869.0 1,841.2 1,811.7 1,775.5 1,752.5 1,745.2 1,655.1 1,409.4 1,527.5

MAY 1,837.8 1,841.8 1,784.4 1,732.4 1,757.4 1,740.3 1,681.5 1,436.6 1,548.7

JUNE 1,868.6 1,914.5 1,748.6 1,773.2 1,733.0 1,739.9 1,667.0 1,528.4 1,606.2


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

JULY -1.6 -4.6 0.7 -4.6 -0.4 -0.7 -1.3 -1.6 -8.6 2.9

AUGUST -0.1 -7.4 1.9 -1.8 -3.7 -0.3 -0.1 -1.1 -10.9 5.1

SEPTEMBER -0.5 -3.2 1.7 -3.9 -5.6 1.1 -5.4 -45.9 74.3 4.5

OCTOBER -2.3 -2.6 -0.5 -3.3 -1.5 -0.9 -2.9 -83.1 420.6 6.6

NOVEMBER -4.7 0.0 1.8 -5.9 -2.7 -0.9 -2.4 -53.1 94.7 4.4

DECEMBER -7.8 0.0 0.1 -5.1 -2.0 2.3 -2.0 -37.5 42.5 4.9

JANUARY -3.0 -2.8 -0.8 -2.1 -2.0 -0.9 -4.7 -25.4 22.0

FEBRUARY -6.2 -3.5 -0.5 -2.2 -0.4 -1.5 -2.7 -27.3 24.0

MARCH -8.9 -2.7 0.0 0.1 -4.9 -1.0 -2.8 -17.3 12.7

APRIL -5.0 -1.5 -1.6 -2.0 -1.3 -0.4 -5.2 -14.8 8.4

MAY -6.3 0.2 -3.1 -2.9 1.4 -1.0 -3.4 -14.6 7.8

JUNE -2.7 2.5 -8.7 1.4 -2.3 0.4 -4.2 -8.3 5.1

SUMMARY DATA

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

FISCAL YEAR *

TOTAL 22,627.9 22,139.9 21,967.7 21,368.1 20,913.3 20,843.1 20,201.2 14,655.0 18,439.9

DIFFERENCE -975.3 -488.0 -172.2 -599.6 -454.8 -70.2 -641.9 -5,546.1 3,784.8

% CHANGE -4.1 -2.2 -0.8 -2.7 -2.1 -0.3 -3.1 -27.5 25.8

JUL-DEC

TOTAL 11,401.5 11,059.5 11,166.2 10,706.9 10,421.6 10,429.1 10,184.7 6,437.7 9,172.7 9,604.7

DIFFERENCE -334.6 -342.0 106.7 -459.3 -285.3 7.5 -244.4 -3,747.0 2,735.1 432.0

% CHANGE -2.9 -3.0 1.0 -4.1 -2.7 0.1 -2.3 -36.8 42.5 4.7

CALENDAR YEAR

TOTAL 22,285.7 22,246.7 21,508.4 21,082.8 20,920.8 20,598.7 16,454.3 17,390.0 18,871.9

DIFFERENCE -982.9 -39.1 -738.3 -425.6 -162.1 -322.1 -4,144.4 935.7 1,481.9

% CHANGE -4.2 -0.2 -3.3 -2.0 -0.8 -1.5 -20.1 5.7 8.5

JAN-DEC

TOTAL 22,285.7 22,246.7 21,508.4 21,082.8 20,920.8 20,598.7 16,454.3 17,390.0 18,871.9

DIFFERENCE -982.9 -39.1 -738.3 -425.6 -162.1 -322.1 -4,144.4 935.7 1,481.9

% CHANGE -4.2 -0.2 -3.3 -2.0 -0.8 -1.5 -20.1 5.7 8.5

* Runs from July of the previous year to June current year. Source: EDB.

Electric Energy Generation, s. a., (mm kWh) 2011-2020

15


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

JULY 87.1 89.6 85.0 85.4 75.3 77.6 83.8 77.6 85.1 69.1

AUGUST 90.1 87.2 83.3 81.7 84.4 78.4 82.2 81.2 78.7 74.4

SEPTEMBER 90.9 88.0 83.2 82.0 77.8 79.8 83.0 78.9 79.9 72.6

OCTOBER 95.6 88.1 83.0 87.0 80.9 83.8 85.1 82.5 79.5 78.4

NOVEMBER 91.1 85.1 84.9 84.6 78.1 86.9 78.3 88.7 81.2 73.7

DECEMBER 87.8 83.4 88.0 85.0 84.0 81.6 75.9 95.3 75.5 81.9

JANUARY 86.3 86.5 87.2 76.3 82.8 83.2 73.5 99.3 78.5

FEBRUARY 87.5 87.0 84.8 81.3 84.9 80.8 78.3 94.4 78.8

MARCH 86.4 84.1 85.5 80.0 86.5 85.2 80.1 84.8 77.7

APRIL 82.8 85.8 80.9 88.1 86.6 80.7 82.7 84.7 73.3

MAY 86.6 86.3 85.8 77.1 84.4 83.6 82.8 84.5 71.9

JUNE 91.4 83.1 83.3 81.2 81.6 81.6 85.1 88.3 70.5


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

JULY -7.1 3.0 -5.1 0.4 -11.8 3.0 8.0 -7.4 9.7 -18.7

AUGUST 1.0 -3.2 -4.4 -2.0 3.3 -7.0 4.8 -1.2 -3.1 -5.5

SEPTEMBER 0.4 -3.3 -5.5 -1.4 -5.1 2.6 3.9 -4.9 1.2 -9.1

OCTOBER 9.0 -7.8 -5.9 4.8 -7.0 3.7 1.5 -3.0 -3.7 -1.3

NOVEMBER 1.1 -6.6 -0.2 -0.3 -7.7 11.2 -9.9 13.4 -8.5 -9.1

DECEMBER -6.4 -5.1 5.6 -3.4 -1.2 -2.8 -7.1 25.6 -20.7 8.5

JANUARY -8.1 0.3 0.9 -12.6 8.5 0.5 -11.6 35.0 -21.0

FEBRUARY -4.2 -0.6 -2.5 -4.1 4.5 -4.9 -3.1 20.6 -16.5

MARCH -1.3 -2.6 1.7 -6.5 8.1 -1.4 -6.0 5.9 -8.4

APRIL -6.8 3.7 -5.8 8.9 -1.8 -6.7 2.5 2.4 -13.5

MAY -6.2 -0.3 -0.6 -10.1 9.4 -0.9 -1.0 2.0 -14.9

JUNE -1.9 -9.2 0.3 -2.6 0.5 0.1 4.3 3.7 -20.1

SUMMARY DATA

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

FISCAL YEAR *

TOTAL 1,063.5 1,034.1 1,014.8 989.6 987.1 983.4 970.7 1,040.1 930.4

DIFFERENCE -28.8 -29.4 -19.2 -25.3 -2.5 -3.7 -12.7 69.4 -109.7

% CHANGE -2.6 -2.8 -1.9 -2.5 -0.3 -0.4 -1.3 7.2 -10.6

JUL-DEC

TOTAL 542.6 521.3 507.3 505.6 480.4 488.2 488.1 504.2 479.8 450.2

DIFFERENCE -2.5 -21.3 -14.0 -1.7 -25.2 7.8 0.0 16.0 -24.4 -29.5

% CHANGE -0.5 -3.9 -2.7 -0.3 -5.0 1.6 0.0 3.3 -4.8 -6.2

CALENDAR YEAR

TOTAL 1,042.2 1,020.0 1,013.1 964.4 994.8 983.3 986.7 1,015.7 900.8

DIFFERENCE -47.5 -22.2 -6.9 -48.8 30.5 -11.5 3.4 28.9 -114.8

% CHANGE -4.4 -2.1 -0.7 -4.8 3.2 -1.2 0.3 2.9 -11.3

JAN-DEC

TOTAL 1,042.2 1,020.0 1,013.1 964.4 994.8 983.3 986.7 1,015.7 900.8

DIFFERENCE -47.5 -22.2 -6.9 -48.8 30.5 -11.5 3.4 28.9 -114.8

% CHANGE -4.4 -2.1 -0.7 -4.8 3.2 -1.2 0.3 2.9 -11.3


Source: EDB. *The EDB applies a three (3)-month moving average adjustment to the gasoline consumption data.

Gasoline Consumption*, s. a., Million of Gallons 2011-2020

16


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

JULY 1,452.6 1,488.9 1,562.1 1,280.0 1,191.6 1,146.3 965.2 961.0 1,194.4 1,101.5

AUGUST 1,505.1 1,250.6 1,553.4 1,375.5 1,118.7 1,030.1 970.1 975.0 1,203.7 1,116.3

SEPTEMBER 1,496.6 1,563.9 1,699.4 1,278.8 1,104.4 1,046.4 1,006.2 313.5 1,208.2 1,069.3

OCTOBER 1,567.1 1,879.9 1,532.6 1,308.0 1,177.9 1,055.6 947.4 478.7 1,113.7 1,170.6

NOVEMBER 1,597.8 1,722.9 1,506.1 1,329.9 1,123.9 1,049.9 865.2 729.5 1,198.5 1,217.4

DECEMBER 1,532.7 1,822.8 1,469.8 1,149.0 1,201.1 1,019.2 1,035.0 1,026.0 1,163.9 1,148.8

JANUARY 1,648.5 1,738.3 1,497.8 1,308.0 1,107.2 991.2 948.8 1,104.2 1,140.4

FEBRUARY 1,652.9 1,720.3 1,445.7 1,260.5 1,098.4 994.0 1,024.6 1,158.7 1,104.4

MARCH 1,610.2 1,655.9 1,373.7 1,261.6 1,174.5 942.8 907.9 1,227.2 1,161.8

APRIL 1,647.3 1,679.1 1,428.2 1,253.1 1,093.7 951.3 985.3 1,264.8 1,040.6

MAY 1,458.1 1,690.4 1,283.9 1,197.6 1,176.7 955.6 978.8 1,247.5 1,109.2

JUNE 1,387.2 1,700.8 1,237.5 1,232.1 1,188.3 956.8 976.3 1,204.5 1,141.7


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

JULY -25.6 2.5 4.9 -18.1 -6.9 -3.8 -15.8 -0.4 24.3 -7.8

AUGUST -20.1 -16.9 24.2 -11.5 -18.7 -7.9 -5.8 0.5 23.4 -7.3

SEPTEMBER -18.9 4.5 8.7 -24.7 -13.6 -5.3 -3.8 -68.8 285.4 -11.5

OCTOBER -5.5 20.0 -18.5 -14.7 -10.0 -10.4 -10.2 -49.5 132.6 5.1

NOVEMBER -3.8 7.8 -12.6 -11.7 -15.5 -6.6 -17.6 -15.7 64.3 1.6

DECEMBER -4.5 18.9 -19.4 -21.8 4.5 -15.1 1.5 -0.9 13.4 -1.3

JANUARY 26.0 5.4 -13.8 -12.7 -15.3 -10.5 -4.3 16.4 3.3

FEBRUARY 5.0 4.1 -16.0 -12.8 -12.9 -9.5 3.1 13.1 -4.7

MARCH 1.7 2.8 -17.0 -8.2 -6.9 -19.7 -3.7 35.2 -5.3

APRIL 13.6 1.9 -14.9 -12.3 -12.7 -13.0 3.6 28.4 -17.7

MAY -2.2 15.9 -24.0 -6.7 -1.7 -18.8 2.4 27.5 -11.1

JUNE -6.0 22.6 -27.2 -0.4 -3.6 -19.5 2.0 23.4 -5.2

SUMMARY DATA

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

FISCAL YEAR *

TOTAL 18,556.2 19,913.9 17,590.1 15,234.1 13,756.3 12,139.1 11,610.8 11,690.6 13,780.6

DIFFERENCE -931.6 1,357.6 -2,323.7 -2,356.1 -1,477.8 -1,617.1 -528.3 79.8 2,089.9

% CHANGE -4.8 7.3 -11.7 -13.4 -9.7 -11.8 -4.4 0.7 17.9

JUL-DEC

TOTAL 9,151.9 9,729.0 9,323.4 7,721.2 6,917.6 6,347.6 5,789.1 4,483.7 7,082.5 6,823.9

DIFFERENCE -1,452.3 577.1 -405.6 -1,602.2 -803.6 -570.0 -558.5 -1,305.3 2,598.7 -258.5

% CHANGE -13.7 6.3 -4.2 -17.2 -10.4 -8.2 -8.8 -22.5 58.0 -3.7

CALENDAR YEAR

TOTAL 19,133.3 19,508.2 15,987.9 14,430.4 13,186.3 11,580.6 10,305.5 14,289.3 13,522.0

DIFFERENCE 1,097.8 374.9 -3,520.3 -1,557.5 -1,244.1 -1,605.6 -1,275.2 3,983.9 -767.3

% CHANGE 6.1 2.0 -18.0 -9.7 -8.6 -12.2 -11.0 38.7 -5.4

JAN-DEC

TOTAL 19,133.3 19,508.2 15,987.9 14,430.4 13,186.3 11,580.6 10,305.5 14,289.3 13,522.0

DIFFERENCE 1,097.8 374.9 -3,520.3 -1,557.5 -1,244.1 -1,605.6 -1,275.2 3,983.9 -767.3

% CHANGE 6.1 2.0 -18.0 -9.7 -8.6 -12.2 -11.0 38.7 -5.4


Source: EDB.

Cement Sales, s. a., (000’s of 94lb. Bags) 2011-2020

17


EDB Economic Activity Index Historical Graph

from January 1980 to December 2019

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160Ja

n-8

0

Dec

-80

No

v-8

1

Oct

-82

Sep

-83

Au

g-8

4

Jul-

85

Jun

-86

May

-87

Ap

r-8

8

Mar

-89

Feb

-90

Jan

-91

Dec

-91

No

v-9

2

Oct

-93

Sep

-94

Au

g-9

5

Jul-

96

Jun

-97

May

-98

Ap

r-9

9

Mar

-00

Feb

-01

Jan

-02

Dec

-02

No

v-0

3

Oct

-04

Sep

-05

Au

g-0

6

Jul-

07

Jun

-08

May

-09

Ap

r-1

0

Mar

-11

Feb

-12

Jan

-13

Dec

-13

No

v-1

4

Oct

-15

Sep

-16

Au

g-1

7

Jul-

18

Jun

-19

Ind

ex (

Jan

uar

y 1

98

0=1

00

Recession Periods

EDB-EAI

18

The complete series of the EAI shows the economic cycles of the Puerto Rico’s economy. It starts in January 1980 and exhibits the recession of FY1979 to FY1983, thesubsequent recuperation period, the mild recession of FY1991 with the expansion phase, and the recession of 2001. It also shows the downward path of the Index sincethe beginning of the 2006 recession with a recuperation episode in 2012, after which the EAI resumed its descendent trend in 2013. The collapse experienced afterhurricanes Irma and Maria struck the Island in September 2017 and the subsequent effect of the recovery efforts are also displayed.

Source: EDB.

Subprime MortgageMarket Meltdown

Hurricane HugoSept. 1989

Recession1979-83

Hurricanes Irma& MaríaSept. 2017

Hurricane GeorgesSept. 1998 COFINA,

ARRA Funds,Medicaid FundsLocal Stimulus ProgramTax ReformAct 154 Excise Tax

Recession2001

Recession1991


In December 2019, the EDB-EAI increased by 1.0% in a y-o-y basis and by 0.4% in a m-o-m basis.

12

8.2

12

7.7

12

7.7

12

8.1

12

7.5

12

7.2

12

6.2

12

6.3

12

5.6

12

5.9

12

5.5

12

6.0

12

5.8

12

6.2

12

6.3

12

6.4

12

6.5

12

6.1

12

5.6

12

4.7

12

4.3

12

4.3

12

4.7

12

4.7

12

4.4

12

3.9

12

3.8

12

3.5

12

3.5

12

3.4

12

3.6

12

3.5

12

3.4

12

3.3

12

2.5

12

2.3

12

1.4

12

1.7

12

1.3

12

1.7

12

1.7

12

2.0

12

1.5

12

1.3

11

4.9

10

4.2

99

.01

03

.31

13

.41

17

.51

18

.81

19

.51

20

.21

21

.11

21

.71

21

.81

21

.61

21

.11

21

.41

21

.11

21

.31

21

.11

21

.41

21

.01

20

.71

20

.41

20

.61

21

.11

21

.21

21

.71

21

.81

22

.3

-3.8

%-3

.8%

-3.3

%-2

.5%

-2.5

%-2

.1%

-2.6

%-2

.4%

-3.0

%-2

.9%

-3.0

%-2

.3%

-1.8

%-1

.1%

-1.1

%-1

.3%

-0.8

%-0

.9%

-0.5

%-1

.3%

-1.1

%-1

.2%

-0.6

%-1

.0%

-1.1

%-1

.8%

-2.0

%-2

.3%

-2.3

%-2

.1%

-1.6

%-1

.0%

-0.7

%-0

.8%

-1.7

%-1

.9%

-2.4

%-1

.8%

-2.0

%-1

.4%

-1.5

%-1

.2%

-1.7

%-1

.8%

-6.9

%-1

5.5%

-19.

2%-1

5.5%

-6.6

%-3

.4% -2

.0%

-1.9

%-1

.2%

-0.7

% 0.2%

0.4%

5.8

%1

6.2

%2

2.6

%1

7.1

%7

.0%

3.1

%2.

2%

1.3%

0.4%

-0.6

%-0

.9%

-0.5

%-0

.3%

0.5%

0.3% 1.

0%

-0.6

%-0

.4%

0.1

%0

.3%

-0.5

%-0

.2%

-0.8

%0

.1%

-0.6

%0

.2%

-0.3

%0

.4%

-0.1

%0

.3%

0.1

%0

.1%

0.0

%-0

.3%

-0.4

%-0

.7%

-0.4

%0

.0%

0.3

%0

.0%

-0.2

%-0

.4%

-0.1

%-0

.2%

0.0

%-0

.1%

0.1

%-0

.1%

-0.1

%-0

.1%

-0.6

%-0

.1%

-0.8

%0

.3%

-0.4

%0

.4%

0.0

%0

.2%

-0.4

%-0

.2%

-5.2

%-9

.3%

-4.9

%4

.3%

9.7

%3

.7%

1.1

%0

.5%

0.6

%0

.7%

0.5

%0

.1%

-0.2

%-0

.4%

0.3

%-0

.3%

0.2

%-0

.1%

0.2

%-0

.3%

-0.3

%-0

.3%

0.2

%0

.4%

0.1

%0

.4%

0.0

%0

.4%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130Ja

n-1

4

Ap

r-1

4

Jul-

14

Oct

-14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-1

5

Jul-

15

Oct

-15

Jan

-16

Ap

r-1

6

Jul-

16

Oct

-16

Jan

-17

Ap

r-1

7

Jul-

17

Oct

-17

Jan

-18

Ap

r-1

8

Jul-

18

Oct

-18

Jan

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jul-

19

Oct

-19

Ind

ex (

Jan

uar

y 1

98

0 =

10

0)

Value (LHS) Year-over-year percent change (RHS) Month-over-month percent change (RHS)

Source: EDB.

EDB Economic Activity Index Growth Rates Comparison

From January 2014 to December 2019

19


Conclusions

20

• The EDB-EAI year-over-year percentage change for December 2019 grew by 1.0%. Also, when comparedto November 2019, the Index advanced by 0.4%.

• The EDB-EAI average growth during 2019 was 1.1%, the second consecutive annual positive growth, afterfive years of uninterrupted reductions. In terms of fiscal year, it had no change during the July –December period of fiscal year 2020. Both percentage changes are the result of a year-over-yearcomparison.

• The December EDB-EAI year-over-year percentage change (1.0%) is the third increase after four (4)months of negative growth. It should be noted that this annual comparison is with respect to a periodduring which the Island’s electrical service was restored to customers that PREPA deemed as able toreceive power safely after the impact of hurricanes Irma and Maria, thus excluding unsafe structures andother such unviable restorations. Consequently, EDB-EAI growth rate is approaching the behavior thatexisted prior to the hurricanes.

• It is important to highlight that during December 2019, two (2) of the EDB-EAI’s components evincedannual increases: electric power generation 4.9%, and gasoline consumption by 8.5%. On the otherhand, total non-farm payroll employment declined by 0.1% and cement sales by 1.3% .


Contact Information

MR. JUAN C. GONZÁLEZ-RUIZ

ECONOMIST • OFFICE OF ECONOMIC STUDIES

Tel: 787-641-4300 • Ext. 3225 • Fax: 787-641-4296

[email protected] • www.bde.pr.gov

MRS. GLADYS L. MEDINA CLAUDIO

ECONOMIST • OFFICE OF ECONOMIC STUDIES

Tel: 787-641-4300 • Ext. 3224 • Fax: 787-641-4296

[email protected] • www.bde.pr.gov

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the puerto rico economic activity index · for the economic activity of puerto rico. it is highly...

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