the question of land, livelihoods and poverty in the countryside

8/12/2019 The Question of Land, Livelihoods and Poverty in the Countryside

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UTSA PATNAIK

J a w a h a r l al N e h r u U n i v e r s i t y

The Question of Land, Livelihoods and Poverty

in the Countryside


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Chart 1a Sectoral Output and GDP per Head, India1981-2 to 2005-6

Sectoral Output per Head and GDP per Head, 1981

2 to 2005-6,Rupees in constant 1999-00 prices

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1982

-3

1985

-6

1988

-9

1991

-2

1994

-5

1997

-8

2000

-1

2003

-4

2005

-6

GDP

PRIMARY

SECOND

TERTIARY


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Chart 1b Sector shares in GDP in India 1981-2 to 2005-6(at 1999-00 prices)

Sector Shares in GDP, Constant 1999-00 Values

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1982

-3

1985

-6

1988

-9

1991

-2

1994

-5

1997

-8

2000

-1

2003

-4

2006

-7

PercentofGDP

PRIMARY

SECONDARY

TERTIARY


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Chart 2a Annual Growth Rate per decade of Central Govt.Development and Total Expenditure, 1970-79 to 1990-99

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1970-79 1980-89 1990-99

Annual Growth Rates per Decade of Development

and Total Expenditures, %

DEV. EXP

TOTAL EXP


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Chart 2b Annual Growth Rate of Spending on Economicand Social Services by States, 1972-79 to 1990-1999

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1972-79 1980-89 1990-99

Annual Growth rates per Decade of Spending on

Economic and Social Services by States 1972 to

1999

ECON. SEVICES

SOCIAL SERVCES


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Chart 2c Decline in Rural Development Spending, 1985-90

to 2003-4

Rural Develeopment Expenditure and

Infrastructure Expenditure as Percent of NNP

under Economic Reforms

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1985-90 1993-4 1995-6 1997-8 2000-1 2003-4

P

ercentofNNP

RDE

IFE


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Chart 3a Unemployment Rates 1993-4 and 2009-10, All-India Rural, Female Workers

Daily and Weekly status Unemployment Rates ,

Rural Females 1993-4 and 2009-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1993-4 2009-10

Unemploymentper1000

Weekly status Daily status


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Chart 3b. Unemployment Rates during 1993-4 and2009--10, All-India Rural, Male Workers

Daily and Weekly status Unemployment

Rates,Rural Males 1993-4 and 2009-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1993-4 2009-10

Unemp

loymen

tper1

000

Weekly status Daily Status


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Chart 4a Food grains output and Availability, India 1899-1990

Foodgrains Output and Availability per Capita, 1897 to 1990

0

50

100

150

200

250

1897- 02 1903- 08 1909- 14 1915- 20 1921- 26 1927-32 1933-38 1939-44 1945-46 1951-55 1956-60 1961-65 1966- 70 1971- 75 1976- 80 1981- 85 1986- 90

Ouput per Capita Avai labil i ty per Capita


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Chart 4b Per Capita Cereal Output per Annum in Kg., World 1963 to2005 ( Five year average centred on specified year)

World Per Capita Cereal Output Kg.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2005

Kilogramp

erAnnum,

Kg.

Per Capita Cereal Kg.


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Table 1 Household Ownership Holdings and Area, 1992

and 2003 compared All-India (NSS Report 491 p.12)

1992 2003 1992 2003

HH %

Area

%

Area

% HH %

Area

%

Area

%

Lowest 65 12.5 11.5 Lowest 65 12.5 11.5

Middle 25 32.5 31 Middle 25 32.5 31

Top 10 55 57.5

Near-

top 5 17 11.5

100 100 100 Top 5 38 46

100 100 100


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Chart 5a Lorenz curve of Owned Land with Rural Households,All-India, 2003

Lorenz Curve, Owned Area with Households, 2003

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

7080

90

100

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Households

OwnedArea


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Table 2 Emigration from Europe 1821 to 1915 (million)

EMIGRATION FROM EUROPE

1821-50 1851-80 1881-1915

Number % Number % Number %

EUROPE 3.4 100 8.1 100 32.1 100

of which

BRITAIN 2.6 76.5 4.6 56.8 8.9 27.7

GERMAN 0.6 17.6 2.1 25.9 2.2 6.9

ITALY neg. 0 0.2 2.5 7.8 24.3

SPAIN &

PORTUGAneg. 0 0.3 3.7 4.3 13.4

AUSTRIA-

HUNGAR neg. 0 0.2 2.5 4.2 13.1

Annualaverages 113,000 270,000 917,000


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Table 3 Arable area, Total Output Of All Crops andOutput per Ha. In India, China and USA 2007

FAOSTAT DATABASE

ARABLE OUTPUT OUTPUT INDEX,

AREA PER USA=100

000 Ha. 000 Tonne Ha., Tonne

INDIA 158114 858137 5.43 137

CHINA 109365 1308745 11.97 302

USA 170428 675872 3.97 100

Source: www.faostat.fao.orgNote: Output includes cereals and pulses, starchy roots, sugarcrops,

sugars and sweeteners, Treenuts, Oilcrops, Vegetablke oils,

vegetables and fruiys, Stimulants and spices

t


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Chart 6a Coconut Price Trend in India compared toIndonesia and Philippines, 1991 to 2003

0

50

100

150

200

250

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

PriceinUS$perTonne

INDO NESIA

INDIA

PHILIPPINES


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Chart 6b Index of Coconut Price 1991 to 2003, base1991=100

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

180

200

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

Indexo

fCoconu

tPro

ducer

Price,

1991=

100

INDO NESIA

INDIA

PHILIPPINES


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Chart 6c Price Trend of Pepper 1999-00 to 2004-05

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1999-

00

2000-

01

2001-

02

2002-

03

2003-

04

2004-

05

Price in US$ per Tonne

Internation al

Price

Domestic Price

Vietnam M Price

Indonesia M Price


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Chart 6d Index of Pepper Price 1999-00 to 2004-05 withbase 1999-00 = 100

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1999

-00

2000

-01

2201

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

IndexofPrice,

199

9-00=100

Internation al

Price

Domestic Price

Vietnam M Price

Indonesia M

Price


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Chart 6e Recent Price Changes, March to December 2008 (Rs.Per Quintal except Cardamom which is Rs. Per 10 kg)

Price change from March to December 2008

0 5000 10000 15000

Coffee

Cardamom

Rubber

Coconut

December

July

March


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Chart 7 Farmer Suicide Rate compared to GeneralSuicide Rate 2001

Farmer Suicide Rate compared with General

Suicide Rate, Census 2001

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Male Female

Numberper100,000

Farmer Suicide Rate

General Suicide Rate

Ch 8 i di d l d f


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Chart 8 Direct, Indirect and Total Demand forGrain with Rising Income


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Chart 9a Decadal average Foodgrains Growth rate andPopulation Growth rate, 1981 to 2008

Decade average Foodgrain Output Growth and

Population Growth Rates, 1980-1 to 2007-8

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1981-90 1991-2000 2001-08

Percen

tperannum

FG

POP


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Note : Output is Net Output = 0.87.5 times Gross Output

Availability = Net Output + Net Imports Net Addition to Public Stocks. Both variables divided by total population for per capita values. Chart

updated to 2007-08 from Patnaik, 2007b


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Chart 9c Output per Capita per annum of Cereals andStarchy Roots in China, 1988 to 2002, in Kilograms

Per capita supplies of cereals and starchy roots, China, 1988-

2002 (Kgs)

50

7090

110

130

150

170

190210

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

cereals

starchy roots


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Chart 9d Use of Corn for Ethanol, USA 2002-3 to 2008-9

Use of Corn for Ethanol, USA

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2002-3 2007-8 2008-9

MillionTon

Corn Output Output less Ethanol use Corn use for Ethanol


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Table 3 The Rural poor as Percent of Rural Population,1993-4 to 2009-10

NSS Round 50th 61st 66th 1993-4 2004-5 2009-10

1..Direct Poverty Line DPL,.at 2200 calories 325 575 1100

2.Official Poverty Line

OPL, Rs. 206 356 (414) (673)

3.Direct Poverty Ratio DPR, % 58.5 69.5 75.5 4.Official Poverty Ratio

OPR, % 37.3 28.3 (41.5) 33.8

5.Calorie Intake @ OPL 1980 1820(1950) 1880 6. Deficit of Calorie Intake from norm - 420 - 580(-450) -520


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Official Poverty Lines are large underestimates

2004-5 Official Poverty Lines (for meeting anutrition norm plus all other observedconsumption)

RURALRs 356 per month, Rs.11.87 per Day(1820 calories)

Revised: Rs.415 per month, Rs. 13.83 per day(1,930 calories)

URBAN Rs. 538.6 per month, Rs. 18 per Day (1,795 calories ) Not revised


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Chart 10a Official and Directly estimated Poverty Lines,All-India Rural, 1973-4 to 2009-10 .

Source: Table 1 lines 1 and 5. Official poverty lines update the cost of a 1973-4 basket while direct poverty

lines apply the official nutrition norm to the current data at each point of time

Official and Direct Poverty Lines, 1973-4 to 2009-10

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1973-4 1983 1993-4 2004-5 2009-100

MPCE,Rs.

DPL 2400 DPL 2200 OPL OPLT


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0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1973-4 1983 1993-4 2004-5 2009-10

Official and Direct Nutrition-invariant Poverty lines, 1973-4 to 2009-10

Official Poverty Line Direct Poverty Line


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Chart 10c Declining Calorie Intake accessible at OfficialPoverty Lines, All-India Rural 1973-4 to 2009-10

Source : Table 1 line 7

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1973-4 1983 1993-4 2004-5 2009-10

Declining Calorie Intake at Official Poverty Lines, 1973-4 to 2009-10

Calories at Official Poverty Line less 1000 Official Calorie norm less 1000


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Chart 11 Per Capita Daily Availability of Food grains in Gm.India 1977 to 1991

430

440

450

460

470

480

490

500

1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992

GmsperDAY


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Chart 12 Per Capita Daily Availability of Foodgrains in GmsIndia 1989 to 2009

430

440

450

460

470

480

490

500

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Gms.Perday

Decline in Rural and Urban per Capita Calorie Intake


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Decline in Rural and Urban per Capita Calorie Intake1983 to 2009-10

1800

1850

1900

1950

2000

2050

2100

2150

2200

2250

1983 1993-4 2004-5 2009-10

Trend in Rural and Urban Calorie Intake per Capita 1983 to 2009-10

RURAL Calorie URBAN Calorie

Rural and Urban per capita daily Protein Intake in


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Rural and Urban per capita daily Protein Intake ingm. 1983 to 2009-10

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

1993-4 1993-4 2004-5 2009-10

Trend in Rural and Urban per capita daily Protein Intake in gm. 1983 to2009-10

RURAL Protein gm. URBAN Protein gm.


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Direct and Official Poverty Estimates All-India Rural, 2009-10

1.Calorie Intake Level 2400 2200 2100 1800

2.Required MPCE , Rs. 1580 1097 925 610(Direct Poverty Line DPL)

3.Percent of Persons

Below DPL 90.5 75.5 62 25

4. Official Poverty Line OPL 672.8

5. Percent of Poor Persons 33.8

6. Calorie Intake at OPL 1870

Di d Offi i l P E i All I di


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Direct and Official Poverty Estimates All-IndiaUrban 2009-10

1.Calorie Intake Level 2400 2200 2100 1800

2.Required MPCE , Rs .

(Direct Poverty Line DPL) 5300 2700 2125 1025

3.Percent of Persons Below DPL 95 84 73 32

4.Official Poverty Line OPL 863

5. Percent of Poor 20.9 . 6.Calorie intake at OPL 1720

Ch i H h ld L d hi A dh


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Change in Household Landownership, 1992 to 2003, AndhraPradesh

Percent of Total Percent of Total

Households Owned Area CHANGE

1992 2003

60 12 3.5 -8.5 25 24 23.5 -0.5

15 64 73 9

10 28 30 2

5 36 43 7

the question of land, livelihoods and poverty in the countryside

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