November 1970 (23rd year) - U.K.: 2 -stg - Canada: 40 cents - France: 1.20 F''""'V.'1*^* I

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100 armed conflicts

since World War II

:

TREASURES

OF

WORLD ART

^ Brazil

Matriarchal mask

This wooden mask with its distinctive qualities of mysticism and tenderness was carved by a Negroartist in 17th century Brazil. A unique work no other like it exists, even in Africa it symbolizesthe survival on the continent of America of a Yoruba (West African) religion transplanted centuriesago. The mask is still worn during ceremonies in which members of an Afro- Brazilian cult honourfemale ancestors. As in West Africa, religion impregnated and marked every activity of theBrazilian Negro, creating a unique culture which continues to find expression in religious ceremonies,art and folklore. This matriarchal mask, which comes from the temple of an Afro-Brazilian cult, figuredin a recent exhibition of Afcp-BrazjJia'r^aijt-and ci|lt*jre, at Unesco's headquarters in Paris.

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CourierNOVEMBER 1970

23RD YEAR

PUBLISHED IN 13 EDITIONS

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tents - Education. Philadelphia, U.S.A.

Page

4 THE ARMS RACE, ESCALATIONOF TOTAL MADNESS

by Philip Noel-Baker

6 POISONOUS MUSHROOMS

46 nuclear tests each year

9 FINAL SEQUEL TO THE LUCKY DRAGON'

12 SUPER-ARMS FOR THEDEVELOPING COUNTRIES

14 THE INDEPENDENCE OF COLONIAL PEOPLES

10th anniversary of a historic U. N. declaration

15 THE HORROR OF BACTERIOLOGICALAND CHEMICAL WEAPONS

21 PEACE RESEARCH. THE SCIENCE OF SURVIVAL

by Bert V. A. Röling

23 100 ARMED CONFLICTS SINCE WORLD WAR II

25 THE EDUCATION REVOLUTIONIN LATIN AMERICA

by Miguel Soler Roca

33 UNICEF GREETING CARDS

34 LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

2 TREASURES OF WORLD ART

Matriarchal mask (Brazil)

Editorial Office

Unesco, Place de Fontenoy Paris-7", France

Editor-in-Chief

Sandy Koffler

Assistant Editor-in-Chief

René Caloz

Assistant to the Editor-in-Chief

Lucio Attinelli

Managing Editors

English Edition: Ronald Fenton (Paris)French Edition: Jane Albert Hesse (Paris)Spanish Edition: Francisco Fernández-Santos (Paris)Russian Edition : Georgi Stetsenko (Paris)German Edition: Hans Rieben (Berne)Arabic Edition: Abdel Moneirn El Sawi (Cairo)Japanese Edition : Takao Uchida (Tokyo)Italian Edition: Maria Remiddi (Rome)Hindi Edition: Kartar Singh Duggal (Delhi)Tamil Edition: T.P. Meenakshi Sundaran (Madras)Hebrew Edition : Alexander Peli (Jerusalem)Persian Edition: Fereydoun Ardalan (Teheran)

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Layout and Design: Robert JacqueminAll correspondence should be addressed to the Editor-in-Chief

5

Cover

It may seem hard to believe butthe world has witnessed 100 wars

and other conflicts since 1945,

as the table published on page 23of this issue shows. The dove

of peace would seem to be a rarebird indeed on our planetAnd yet the overkill arms racekeeps escalating with bigger andbigger nuclear weapons, biggerand "better" bacteriological andchemical weapons. When willthis madness stop?

Photo © Luc Joubert

On September 21, 1970, five of the six living, Nobel Peace Prize winnersLordBoyd Orr, Lester Pearson, Philip Noel-Baker, Linus Pauling and René Cassinpre¬sented a declaration on peace and disarmament at United Nations headquartersin New York calling for a moratorium on the development and deployment of newoffensive and defensive strategic nuclear weapons systems as a first step towardsfull disarmament. The sixth Nobel Peace Prize winner, Ralph Bunche, endorsedthe declaration though he did not sign it because of his position in the U.N. Secre¬tariat as Under Secretary-General. The United Nations hopes to make the Seven¬ties a "Disarmament Decade" in a renewed effort to halt and reverse the insensate

arms race in which the real cost of world military expenditure, trebled between1949 and 1968.

In this issue, which is largely devoted to the question of armaments and peaceresearch, Nobel Peace Prize winner Philip Noel-Baker presents a picture of thecurrent arms build-up on the basis of the findings of the Stockholm InternationalPeace |Research Institute (SIPRI) published in its Yearbook of World Armamentsand Disarmament.

^.i.s2S#l

The Arms Race

escalation of

total madnessby Philip Noel-BakerNobel Peace Prize, 1959

SUS *^LLV-5I

* <

-r" l°-

|^F WIGHT D. Eisenhower wasnot only President of the United Sta¬tes; he was also Commander-in-Chief

of the greatest army, and victor of thegreatest battle, in human history. Afterfour years in the White House, hesaid in a press conference in 1957:

"I know of nothing that has occurredin our time where greater optimismmust be maintained... than in this whole

business of beginning disarmament...The alternative is so terrible that youcan merely say this: All the risks youtake in trying to advance are as noth¬ing compared to doing nothing, tositting on your hands."

On an earlier occasion, Eisenhowersaid:

"War in our time has become an

anachronism. Whatever the case in

the past, war in the future can serveno useful purpose."

Since he spoke these words, almostevery president and prime ministerin the world has re-echoed them, and

has declared that a nuclear war mightexterminate mankind. Scientists, be¬

ginning with Einstein and Cockcroft,and weapons-experts, from Oppen-heimer and Isidor Rabi to Sir SollyZuckerman and Herbert York, have

ardently, even passionately endorsedthis view.

But, nevertheless, the governmentshave gone on sitting on their hands.Khruschev's and Kennedy's greatdisarmament plans were destroyed bymilitarist opposition. The arms racehas continued with unparalleled fury;world military expenditure, in realterms, has increased by more than60 per cent since 1957; the numbersof nuclear warheads have increased

much more perhaps they have beenmultiplied by 10.

Much worse, wars have raged invarious quarters of the world, wars inwhich the dead and mutilated must

be reckoned in millions and often

mutilation is more terrible than death.

No-one outside the Institutes of self-

styled "strategic analysts" reallydoubts that there is a causal connexion

between the arms race and the wars;

that if a Treaty of General Disarma¬ment had been made by a compromisebetween Kennedy's and Khruschev'sDraft Treaties of 1962, the world

would now enjoy unbroken peace.

The U.N. General Assembly in1969 declared that the 1970s must

be the Disarmament and DevelopmentDecade. Since then the Secretary-General has been engaged in a vigo¬rous disarmament campaign.

' In his report to the General Assem¬bly in 1969, U Thant said: "The worldnow stands at a most critical cross¬

roads. It can pursue the arms race at

a terrible price to the security andprogress of the peoples of the world,or it can move ahead towards the goalof general and complete disarmament,a goal that was set in 1959 by aunanimous decision of the General

Assembly... If it should choose thelatter road" (i.e. general disarmament),"the security, the economic well-beingand the progress, not only of thedeveloping countries, but also of thedeveloped countries, and of the entireworld, would be tremendously en¬hanced."

On May 22, 1970, U Thant said toa conference in New York: "Progress...in the field of disarmament can be

achieved only if there is a strongpolitical will on all sides to undertakethe policies and measures that could

CONTINUED PAGE 8

PHILIP NOEL-BAKER, Nobel Peace Prize,1959, has devoted many years to researchon problems of peace and disarmament andhas written widely on the subject. Readerswill recall his special study on Science andDisarmament published in our August-Sep-tember 1967 Issue, "War or Peace?".

5

Photo © UK Atomic Energy Authority

Photo USIS

Photo USIS

Poisonous

mushroomsPhoto © Panmage, Paris

The malignant crop of atomic mushrooms shown here is a tiny sampling of thehundreds of nuclear test explosions that have blasted harmful radioactive

substances into the atmosphere during the past 25 years. Countries which signed

the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty in Moscow, in 1963, agreed to discontinue allnuclear tests in the atmosphere, under water and in outer space. Yet the MoscowTreaty, " does not appear to have had much success in reducing the amount ofnuclear weapon testing," reports the SIPRI Yearbook of World Armaments

and Disarmament. "From available data," it says, "it appears that the averageannual number of tests by all nations before the treaty was 40. The annual

average since the treaty has been 46." Since they concluded the treaty, theUSA, USSR and UK have exploded no nuclear devices in the atmosphere,

although underground nuclear tests have increased in number. But certain

countries that did not sign the Moscow Agreement have carried out atmo¬

spheric tests since 1963 (top right, nuclear explosion in Mainland China;

bottom right, French nuclear explosion).

ARMS RACE ESCALATION (Continued)

For every dollar spent on arms

only 30 cents for public health

lead to agreements. If we are tomake real progress toward disarma¬ment, governments must approachthis subject in a new spirit. Theymust stop questioning the seriousnessof purpose of others and think howthey can demonstrate their own."

In the same speech, U Thant said:"There is another aspect of the Disar¬mament Decade which... has been

largely overlooked... I refer to theneed for greater publicity concerningboth armaments and disarmament, so

that knowledge concerning thesematters can penetrate the conscienceof the people."

"Penetrate the conscience of the

people."

Yes, foreign policy, armament policy,has been controlled for the last tragicdecade by those in the Establish¬ments of almost every nation who be¬lieve that armaments can promotenational security and national great¬ness, and who believe that disarma¬

ment and the abolition of war are not

only Utopian, but even ignoble. Onlya great tide of world opinion can des¬troy their power.

T| HIS is the significance of

SIPRI's (*) great "Yearbook of WorldArmaments and Disarmament." SIPRI's

authority has been firmly establishedby its other works; but the Yearbookis, and will remain, its chef-d'oeuvre.

The product of a dozen first-classbrains, from a dozen countries, work¬

ing within the Institute itself, who arere-inforced, when needed, by expertsfrom outside.

The sections on military expenditure,which open the Yearbook, more than

justify this claim. Chapter 1, whichsets out the trends of military expendi¬ture in the world at large," in ^certainregions and among certain groups ofcountries, and even of some individual

"Great" Powers, is a masterly pieceof statistical analysis. The clarity ofits exposition, re-inforced by thecharts attached to this chapter, andby the detailed tables of expenditurein Part II, give a wholly new pictureof the long-term history of the arms

8

* SIPRI = Stockholm International Peace

Research Institute. The Institute was found¬

ed and Is financed by the Swedish Parlia¬ment, which set It up to celebrate the end of

a century and a half during which Swedenhad had no war. It has an International Board

of Governors, of which Mr. Gunnar MyrdalIs the chairman.

race, and of its immediate and terrify¬ing significance today.

The constant increase of the burden

of military budgets has been a mainplank in the argument of those whourge disarmament. But the tablespublished hitherto have mostly beenat current prices and current exchangerates; those who opposed disarma¬ment often claimed, without provingwhat they said by doing the sums,that increases of expenditure were dueto a rise of prices, and that, in realresources, the burden of expenditureremained the same.

The opponents of disarmament alsofound another way of distorting thefacts. They drew up tables showinga nation's armament expenditure as apercentage of its gross nationalproduct, without explaining that theG.N.P. had much increased; thus theyshowed Britain's expenditure as over10 per cent of G.N.P. in the early1950s, and as 6.7 per cent in 1968;this left the casual reader with the

impression that large reductions hadbeen made, when in fact the burdenin real resources had increased.

SIPRI puts all these muddles right.There are tables at current prices andexchange rates. There are tables atconstant prices, showing the trendsin real resources over many years.There are evaluations of the percent¬

ages of G.N.P. spent on armamentsin different years by different powers.

These tables give a true picture ofthe arms race since the presentcentury began. It is a picture thatwill surprise, and shock, most people.

For 70 years, since 1900, the averageincrease in the real burden of world

armaments has been 5 per cent peryear. Since 1948, the increase hasbeen greater: 6 per cent per year.

This meant that, from 1949 to 1968,the real cost was trebled.

If the increase continues at the

present rate, the cost will double

again by 1980. The world total in1968, at 1960 prices, was: $153,498million.

In 1980, it would be: $306,996 mil¬lion.

If the increase continues, at 5 percent per annum, then, says the Year¬book: "By the early years of the nextcentury the world will be devoting tomilitary uses a quantum of resourceswhich is equal to the whole world'spresent (1968) output."

"This is not so preposterous as itsounds", says the Yearbook. "The

world is now devoting to militarypurposes an amount of resourceswhich exceeds the world's total out¬

put in the year 1900."

There are also valuable comments

on percentages of G.N.P.

In 1913, just before the First WorldWar, "probably no more than 3-3i percent of world output was going tothe military. In the early 1930s, thepercentage seems to have been aboutthe same. The average over the last18 years... has been around 7-8 percent more than double the 1913

figure".

Moreover, the world's output ofwealth has been increased at least

fivefold since 1913, so that in real

terms the resources "going to themilitary" have been multiplied by 10.

There are other dismal facts givenin the Yearbook about this world

expenditure on defence.

It is greater in amount by 40 percent than the total sums spent by allnations together on Education.

It is more than three times the

expenditure of all nations together onPublic Health.

These are depressing facts, particu¬larly to those who care about Unescoand its mission toward mankind.

But there are worse facts still to

come.

The arms race is spreading tocontinents where it was not known

before.

The figures for Africa, over the lastfew years, show that military expendi¬ture there is rising by 7-8 per cent peryear more than the average for theworld.

I| N the developing countriesof all continents, military expenditurehas risen since 1960 by an average of7è per cent per year. The developingcountries those which are receivingeconomic aid from the International

Bank, the International DevelopmentAgency, the U.N. Development Pro¬gramme, and other sources havespent many billions of dollars onimporting "sophisticated" weaponswarships, aircraft, missiles, tanks,

from the arms-producing nations.

This is a new and an alarming fact.

In 1955, no developing country hadsupersonic military aircraft; today noless than 32 such nations have them.

CONTINUED PAGE 10

Final sequelto the

'Lucky Dragon'

HIS fishing boat is a hulk lying on the mud-flats of a

garbage dump infTokyo Bay, inappropriately named "Island of Dreams" (Yumenoshima).Still legible oni-4*~bj>w are the Japanese characters for Fukuryu Méru Lucky Dragon.But like its re/ting place, the Lucky Dragon is ill-named. Sixteen years ago, onMarch 1, 1954, the boat and its crew were hit by the fallout of a hydrogen bombexplosion during a nuclear test in the Pacific.

At five o'clock on that March morning, the Lucky Dragon was near the Marshall

'LUCKY DRAGON' (Continued)

Islands fishing for tuna, when a huge incandescence rose above the western horizon.The fishermen watched with awe. "The sun rises in the west," one exclaimed.

Before long, the boat was showered with a drizzle of small, white flakes which

clung to the crew's hair, eyes and nostrils. The vessel was 87 miles from an obscure

atoll named Bikini. During their two-week journey back to Japan, the crew memberswere stricken with a variety of ailments.

It was not until some days after their return to port that the fishermen learned what

the flash was. They were taken to hospital in Tokyo for treatment In September 1954,Aikichi Kuboyama, the ship's radio operator died the world's first victim of the

H-bomb. (For full story see "Unesco Courier", August-September 1967.)

In the years that followed, the Lucky Dragon was all but forgotten. After beingdecontaminated several times, it was abandoned on the "Island of Dreams" garbagedump, until someone decided it should be sold for scrap.

When this became known, committees were at once formed to save the boat, andfund-raising campaigns were launched. Tokyo's Governor, Ryokichi Minobe, forbade

the scrapping of the Lucky Dragon, and two organizations, The Japan CongressAgainst Atomic and Hydrogen Bombs and the General Council of Trade Unions of

Japan, made plans to preserve the boat.

Painted and restored, the Lucky Dragon will now have Its place alongside theatomic museums of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, as another reminder of the horror ofnuclear weapons and their destructive effects.

11.02 AM

The hands of this clock in

Nagasaki, Japan, mark theexact instant when an atomic

bomb was dropped on thecity on the morning of August 91945. Three days earlier, anatomic bomb had levelled 4i

square miles of Hiroshima.

ARMS RACE ESCALATION

(Continued from page 8)

In 1957, no developing country hadlong-range surface-to-air missiles; now19 have them.

It is this military expansion whichhas swallowed up the scarce foreigncurrency resources which these deve¬loping nations should have invested asproductive capital in projects for eco¬nomic expansion and social progress.In my opinion it is the real reason whythe U.N. Development Decade so

largely failed.

There are interesting facts in theYearbook about the percentages ofG.N.P. given to the military by twoleading nations, Britain and the UnitedStates.

The U.S. figures are these:

Percentage of G.N.P.Year spent on Armaments

1913 1.4

1928 1.1

1969 9.0

The U.S. is fighting the Vietnamwar; nevertheless, that nearly one-tenth of its enormously increased out¬put of wealth should "go to the mili¬tary" is a fantastic thought.

Britain is fighting no war. Her fig¬ures are these:

Percentage of G.N.P.Year spent on Armaments

1913 3.4

1928 3.0

1968 6.7

Double the percentage of a nationaloutput which has increased only lessthan that of the United States.

Nothing so demonstrates the almostincredible momentum of the arms race,

and the profound and all-embracingmilitarization of world politics, as theselast figures.

The SIPRI Yearbook expands itspicture of the arms race by a newand fascinating account of the tech¬nological trends and advances in themass-destruction "weapons-systems"of the major powers, and of conven¬tional armaments as well.

"New" ? Much of the material isfrom already published governmentsources, some from unofficial sources,some from SIPRI's own researches.

But "new", because no-one has yetconstructed so comprehensive and soilluminating a synthesis of what isfamiliar, what ought to be familiar, andwhat so far has been virtuallyunknown.

The story of the nuclear competitionbetween the Soviet Union and the

United States is terrifying.

Humpty Dumpty sat on a first strike capability

Some authorities in the United

States have added a new dimension to

its menace. They interpret the Sovietmissile SS9, with its multiple war¬

heads, and the great increase in thenumber of Soviet I.C.B.M.s, not as a

belated and desperate attempt to

catch up with the vastly superior nu¬clear strength of the United States, butas an attempt to take a very dange¬rous lead.

SIPRI quotes a U.S. spokesman:"They (the Russians) are going for afirst strike capability. There is noquestion about that."

This cuts at the root of the comfor¬

table, wishful-thinking theory that themutual deterrence of the nuclear

bombs gives us security from war.SIPRI gives cogent reasons why thisview of Soviet policy is not at present

credible; they say that the large U.S.superiority in I.C.B.M.s throughoutthe period since the missiles first be¬gan to* fly must have made it appear"from the Soviet point of view ... thatit was the United States which was

attempting to preserve a first-strikecapability." And they quote authori¬tative sources for the fact that for ten

years the U.S. have had the means torender a million square miles of urbanareas in the Soviet Union uninhabitable

by human beings.

B' UT what General Staffs be¬

lieve may be more important than thefacts; their beliefs decide the policywhich their governments pursue. Andno doubt it is because the U.S. Depart¬ment of Defense believe that the Rus¬

sians "are going for a first strike capa¬bility" (i.e. for the power to destroy allthe U.S. nuclear weapons before theU.S. can reply), that they are em¬barking on a new programme ofmissiles with longer ranges and withmultiple warheads (MIRV). Many ofthe Polaris submarines will be con¬

verted to Poseidons; instead of one

Polaris warhead of 600 kilotons yield,the Poseidon will have ten warheads

of 50 kilotons yield (50 kilotons is3l times as powerful as the Hiroshimabomb). Similar "improvements" willbe made in the land-launched missiles,

the Minutemen.

Departments of defence prefer totake no chances.

The U.S. Department of Defenseappropriated $25 million for the de¬velopment of a new manned bombing

aircraft in 1969, and $100 million in1970.

They are doing vigorous research toimprove the accuracy of their missiles

if the average distance from thetarget is halved, "the weapon yieldneeded to eliminate a specific target isreduced by a factor not of 2, but of10."

They are spending large sums onresearch in oceanography; on so im¬proving submarines that they can re¬main submerged for two months ormore (what kind of human beings willthe crew be when they come up?); ongiving submarines the capacity to diveand cruise at greater depths "theaddition of 100 feet to the maximum

operating depth of a submarine addsmillions of cubic miles to the volume

of space in which the submarine cannavigate."

All these developments can be jus¬

tified as "defensive", if you apply themethod of "worst case analysis" toyour weapon systems, i.e. if youaccept the worst possible assumptionsabout the reliability of your own wea¬pons, about the effectiveness of yourenemy's defence etc. This is a me¬thod that would be tolerated in no

other sphere of government; but inrespect of armaments, "you mustalways err on the side of safety."

But, however these U.S. program¬mes may appear in Washington (andthe ABM was only carried by theChairman's vote in a Senate divided

50-50), SIPRI is surely right in think¬ing that in Moscow they will seemto justify the view' that it is the U.S.which is seeking in the 1970s, as, inSoviet eyes, they did in the 1960s, topreserve a first strike capability.

If both sides believe that first-strike

capability is the fixed purpose of theother, and if their military researchand weapon programmes appear tothe other to be devoted to this aim, the

"stability" alleged to result from mutualnuclear deterrence will not be of much

practical value for the peaceful con¬duct of world affairs. And the SALT

talks in Vienna the secret U.S.-Soviet

negotiations about the possible limi¬tation of "strategic" arms do notseem to give much hope that the racein these long-range nuclear weaponswill be ended in the early future.

MIRV poses the most difficult of ins¬pection problems; and if SIPRI is right,the point of no return may alreadyhave been passed.

MIRV and ABM are only the mostdangerous of the weapon develop¬ments now under way; there are innu

merable others which are dealt with

in the Yearbook.

On chemical and biological warfare,SIPRI's authority is already estab¬lished in the world. The Yearbook

chapter on the subject will enhance it.

So will:

The section on the role of helicop¬ters in "conventional" war;

The section on submarine warfare;

The extremely valuable section onthe arms trade, and the remarkable

Arms Trade Register;

The outline of the disarmament ne¬

gotiations and proposals since 1945;

The compendious information givenon the Moscow Partial Test Ban, The

Antarctic Treaty, the Outer SpaceAgreement, and the Non-ProliferationTreaty;

The revealing diaries of events in theNigerian civil war and the Israeli-Arabwars; and much more besides, withwhich there is no space to deal.

c^^OMETHING must be said,

however, about the Yearbook's analy¬

sis of the post-1945 phenomenon ofGovernment Military Research and De¬velopment. It has long been plain thatMilitary Research and Development(R & D) is the real dynamo which dri¬ves the arms race. It is R and D which

makes the arms race a remorselesslyself-escalating burden on the nations'wealth. It is R and D which drives

up the cost and scale of armamentsfrom year to year.

It has long been known that vastsums were being spent on R and D.But SIPRI has brought out somethingprofoundly significant and new.

"Behind this extremely rapid rate

of technological improvement inweaponry," says the Yearbook, "somuch faster than that of civil goods,there is an enormous disparity betweenthe two fields in research and devel¬

opment. . . For every $100 of militaryprocurement (i.e. actual purchase ofarms by the Government) in the Uni¬ted States, Britain and France, there

is over $50 of research expenditure (*).For the general run of manufacturing,the research input for every $100 ofoutput ranges from $1.9 (France) to$7.5 (U.S.). The disparity is not sogreat in other countries, but it existseverywhere.' 11

* The actual figures are: U.K. $62.2; U.S.$54; France $57.

CONTINUED NEXT PAGE

ARMS RACE ESCALATION (Continued)

Moreover, the military research figu¬res are understated they excludeexpenditure on space research and on

atomic energy research. All in all, theresearch input for weapons is at leastten times that for civil goods and ser-vioes. This conjures up visions of

rotting urban ghettoes which modernengineering ought to cleanse; of starv¬ing children who ought not to starve;of rampant diseases which sciencecould wipe out.

But worse than that:

"This tremendous research and de¬

velopment drive behind the advance inweaponry has an impetus of its own.Once massive funds are voted for

weapons research ... it is inevitablethat further improvements will bemade, and inevitable that new fields of

warfare will be explored. . .

"Weapons research proliferates inanother way. . .: each new weaponspurs the development of counter-

weapons."

Alas, what might science do for thebetterment of human life and hap¬piness if the balance of R and D were

ten to one the other wayl

This Yearbook is a sine qua non forthe proper understanding of worldaffairs.

Lest I have given it a colour whichothers might contest, let me end byquoting the words of SIPRI's Director,Mr. Robert Neild:

"The Yearbook is factual: but of

course the selection of the material

and the way in which it is presentedimplies a set of valuations, and we

should make them explicit. Obviouslythe staff drawn as they are frommany different countries have differ¬ing views on a wide number of ques¬tions of world armaments and disar¬

mament. The common elements in

their approach may be summarizedthus:, that the rise in world militaryspending, and more particularly theconstant technological acceleration inweaponry, is highly dangerous, andthat the attempts so far made to slow

down, halt or reverse the processhave been incommensurate with the

danger; that arms competition, thoughit is not the sole or main cause of

world tensions and conflicts, is animportant independent factor whichincreases and exacerbates tensions:

and that arms limitation or disarma¬

ment could help considerably to re¬duce these tensions."

Amen.

12

The SIPRI Yearbook of World Armaments

and Disarmament 1968-1969, prepared by theStockholm International Peace ResearchInstitute, Is published by Almqvist i Wiksell,Stockholm, Humanities Press, New York andGerald Duckworth & Co., Ltd., London.(Prices, hardback and soft cover respectively:60 and 32 Kr. ; $12.00 and $6.50; £5 and£2.10.)

IMPORTS OF MAJOR WEAPONS

BY DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

(millions of U. S. dollars)

Importers

Greece and Turkey

Middle East

(including the UAR)

North Africa

(Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia)

Sub-Saharan Africa

(the rest of Africa excluding South Africa)

South Africa

Indian Sub-continent

(Afganistan, Ceylon, India Pakistan)

Far East

(excluding Mainland China, Japan, North Viet-Nam and the Republic of Viet-Nam)

Central America

(All countries from Panama north to the USA)

South America

TOTAL excluding North Viet-Nam and the Republicof Viet-Nam

North Viet-Nam and the Republic of Viet-Nam

TOTAL

240 640

1.470 1,200

1,500 | 1,670

Tables taken from the SIPRI Yearbook of World Armaments and Disarmament Figuresrounded to nearest 10. or to nearest 5 when under 10. Values calculated at constant1968 prices.

EXPORTS OF MAJOR WEAPONS

to areas in table above (North Viet-Nam and the Republicof Viet-Nam excluded)

(millions of U.S. dollars)

Exporters 1950 1958 1968

France

Canada

Mainland China

Federal Republic of Germany

Czechoslovakia

Sweden

All other

TOTAL

30

1,470 | 1,200

Super-arms for developing countries

ILITARY expenditure inthe developing countries is only asmall fraction of the world total; but itseems to have risen rather faster than

world military expenditure as a wholeand to have been acceleratingrecently.

The spread of existing sophisticatedweapons through the Third World is avery significant aspect of the armscompetition there. This "horizontal"proliferation is the complement to thetechnological arms race which is per¬haps the most important feature of thearms competition in the developedcountries. More and more developingcountries are acquiring fighters,ground-to-air missiles, and so on. TheThird World countries do not, for the

most part, produce these sophisticatedweapons themselves; the weapons aresupplied by the industrial nations.

Some Third World countries, such as

Israel and India, are beginning to pro¬duce more sophisticated weapons; butthese weapons are usually producedunder licence with a substantial pro¬portion of imported components.

- The arms competition in the ThirdWorld would be very different if itwere not for the fact that the greatpowers are seeking influence there.They may be looking for strategicallyplaced allies, they may be anxious tosupport regimes friendly to themagainst internal armed opposition, orthey may wish to protect their eco¬nomic interests or to gain general sup¬port for foreign policy (in the formof votes in the United Nations, forexample). One of the main methodsof exerting influence is by supplyingarms.

There are some important qualifica¬tions about the figures and informationdiscussed here and shown in the tables

opposite. The figures are, as faras is known, the first comprehensivequantitative estimates which show howthe trends have changed in the pasttwo decades. They are based onincomplete unofficial information offi¬cial figures are virtually non-existent.

The tables are limited to the

supply of major weapons: ships, air¬craft, armoured fighting vehicles andmissiles. Because no support equip¬ment and no other weapons are in¬cluded, they represent only a partbut an important part of the armstrade.

The figures are constructed torepresent the "real" transfer of resour¬ces. They are based on comparablevalues for comparable items, usingsuch criteria as speed, weight, type ofengine, date of production. They donot take into account differing pricesor differing terms for individual trans¬actions, such as aid, credit, loans orsubsidies. That is, they attempt to

measure the quantum of resourcesrepresented by the weapons, not thecost in foreign currency paid by therecipient country.

"In drawing conclusions from thesefigures," says the SIPRI report,"we have allowed for their wide

margin of error. In dealing with thearms trade with these countries, it

seemed right to construct the best pic¬ture we could, using our own judge¬ment on information from all kinds

of sources. The alternative usingofficial information only would havemeant that little or nothing could besaid on a matter of great internationalimportance.

"There is also a caution on the use

the military expenditure figures. Theycover the military expenditure of thecountries out of their own domestic

resources: military aid is included inthe budget of the donor countries."

Major weapon supplies to ThirdWorld countries have been rising evenfaster than their military expenditures.The long-term trend from 1950 to 1968,has been for the supply of weaponsto increase, in volume terms, by some9 per cent a year, against 7 per centa year for military spending. It hasnot been a smooth rise over the eigh¬teen years: there was a high pointaround 1958, when United States mili¬tary aid was at its height, and therehas been a rapid increase since 1962.In 1968 deliveries of major weaponsto the Third World countries, at$1,700 million, were higher than everbefore: they were around $300 mil¬lion, or 15 per cent, above the 1967figure.

growing number of ThirdWorld countries have acquired super¬sonic fighters, anti-aircraft missilesand helicopters for military use. Thehelicopter is becoming more and moreimportant in the weapons inventory ofthe great powers and this is also truefor Third World countries.

The two main areas responsible forthe increase in major weapon sup¬plies since 1962 have been the MiddleEast and North Viet-Nam and the

Republic of Viet-Nam. In 1968, thesetwo areas accounted for 70 per centof total major arms deliveries. In theMiddle East, it was not only there-equipment which followed the Six-Day War which made up the massiveinflux of weapons: there were exten¬sive arms purchases by Saudi Arabia,Iran and Kuwait. In addition, there

were in this period significant increa¬ses in major arms supplies to SouthAfrica and the four North African

countries.

The pattern of the short-term in¬crease from 1967 to 1968 was a little

different. Again, it was dominated bythe Middle East, but in addition therewere notable increases in arms sup¬

plies to the Indian sub-continent andto South America: in both these areas

the trend had previously been falling.

The United States, the Soviet Union,Britain and France dominate the mar¬

ket for major arms exports. During the1950s these four countries accounted

for 80 per cent of major arms suppliesto the Third World. During the 1960s,this proportion had increased to 90 percent, and it is still rising.

The United States share of majorarms supplies to the Third World hasfallen both absolutely and relativelysince the end of the 1950s. Since

1960, the emphasis of US militaryassistance policy has shifted from thedefence of states from possible exter¬nal attack to the defence of govern¬ments from possible internal insurrec¬tion: developing countries have beenencouraged to acquire counter-insur¬gency equipment rather than sophisti¬cated conventional equipment.

Such items include helicopters,trainers, patrol boats, refurbishedWorld War II combat aircraft, whichare relatively inexpensive. The ArmsTrade Register for 1968 shows that alarge part of the equipment supplied bythe United States in 1968, particularlyin Latin America consisted of these

items.

Major arms supplies from the SovietUnion have risen throughout theperiod. In the last few years, theSoviet Union has exported roughly thesame quantity of major weapons asthe United States. The most rapidincrease in Soviet major arms suppliesoccurred in the second half of the

1950s. Between 1954-58 and 1959-

63, major arms supplies from theSoviet Union doubled. Between

1960-64 and 1964-68, they rose byonly about 10 per cent.

The first arms agreement with Egyptwas made in 1955; it was followedsoon after by a similar agreement withSyria. In 1958 the Soviet Union begansupplying arms to Iraq and Indonesia,and a little later to Africa. Arms sup¬plies to India and Cuba began in 1960.Although major arms supplies to Indiaand the Middle East have increased

substantially in recent years, the totalSoviet rise has been relatively smallbecause of a considerable reduction in

supplies to Indonesia and Cuba, whichreached their height in 1962.

In the short term, major arms sup- .j nplies from both the United States and I Athe Soviet Union have risen, particu¬larly in the Middle East. The Soviet .Union has been meeting the replace-

DEVELOPING COUNTRIES (Continued)

ment requirements of the U.A.R. andSyria, while the United States hasbeen supplying sophisticated equip¬ment to Israel, Jordan and Iran.

Britain and France together accountfor approximately 20 per cent of totalmajor arms supplies during the period.The British share has fallen since the

end of the 1950s. The level of sup¬plies from France has risen throughoutthe period, though not continuously;it is now approaching equality with thelevel of British supplies.

During the 1950s, a large propor¬tion of British arms were supplied tocountries which had had traditional

military ties with Britain, or to ex-colo¬nies. Many of these traditional reci¬pients have turned to other sources.The U.A.R. and Iraq turned to the SovietUnion. Jordan is receiving more andmore weapons from the United States,and India from the Soviet Union. An

embargo has been placed on Britisharms supplies to South Africa, whichhas consequently turned to France.

In the short term, there have beenrapid rises in both British and Frenchmajor arms supplies. In 1968, Britainand France accounted for 35 per centof total major arms supplies. Francehas determinedly expanded its marketsin South Africa and in Latin America

and South Asia. The embargo onIsrael has been accompanied by anincrease in orders from and deliveries

to the Arab countries. France conti¬

nues to supply arms to French ex-colo¬nies A large part of the recentincrease in British major arms supplieshas consisted of deliveries to the oil

rich countries of the Middle East.

Among the other suppliers, Canada,the Fed. Rep. of Germany and Italyhave increased their exports in the lastfew years. Major arms supplies fromItaly and Canada were also high duringthe 1950s, in relation to their currentlevel. Canada was selling Sabrefighters, built under licence from the

. United States, during the 1950s; it isnow selling Canadian built and design¬ed transports. Italy is selling trainersand helicopters. During the 1950s,Italian exports consisted primarily ofships.

The rise in major arms suppliesfrom the Fed. Rep. of Germany tocountries outside Europe has consistedof surplus equipment. Iran andVenezuela, in particular, have pur¬chased large quantities of ex-Luft¬waffe F-86 fighters.

The Swedish defence industry iscomparable in sophistication to thoseof Britain and France. However, Swe¬dish exports of major weapons to theThird World have been extremely lowand have fallen to an almost negligibleamount during the 1960s. This is prob¬ably the result of the increasingly res¬trictive Swedish arms trade policy.

14 The above text is abridged from the SIPRIYearbook of World Armaments and

Disarmament 1968-1969, published by theStockholm International Peace Research

Institute.

10th ANNIVERSARY OF U.N. DECLARATION

ON THE INDEPENDENCE OF COLONIAL PEOPLES

I EN years ago, the United Nations General Assembly approved theDeclaration on the Granting of Independence to Colonial Countries andPeoples. All peoples, it declared, had the right freely to determine theirpolitical status and to pursue their economic, social and cultural development.

The importance of this historic Declaration was recalled recently byM. René Maheu, Director-General of Unesco, on the occasion of the 25thanniversary of the founding of the United Nations. Speaking in Geneva onbehalf of 21 international organizations of the U.N. family (1), he declared :

"It was within the United Nations that the idea and the processof decolonization took definite shape. The Trusteeship Counciland the Fourth Committee of the General Assembly, in particular,have been largely instrumental in bringing about the emanci¬pation of many peoples formerly under colonial rule.

"The accession of these peoples to independence, however,has not only profoundly altered the composition of the interna¬tional community and the relations among its members, it hasalso highlighted a number of problems which had never pre¬viously appeared in their true colours and in all their gravity.

"I refer to the problems of underdevelopment. Mankind hassuddenly realized both that development has been the privilegeof a minority instead of being, as it can be, the condition of ail,and that most of the countries seeking to achieve it were unableto do so by their own unaided efforts.

"In this respect, a tribute must be paid to the Economic andSocial Council, the organ of the General Assembly mainly res¬ponsible for the development of this new awareness that haschanged the spirit of our times. The Council hammered out theidea of integrated economic and social development and securedacceptance of it not only as a possibility but as a duty devolvingupon each individual country and upon the international commu¬nity as a whole...

"... The world is still dominated by too many rulers and groupswho do not suit their actions to their words, who preach peacewhile waging or preparing for war, who exalt justice while tole¬rating discrimination and flagrant inequality, who pay lip serviceto progress while diverting to armaments enormous sums whichthey could more usefully spend on development, both in theirown country and abroad..."

During the past year, the "Unesco Courier" has on many occasions de¬scribed the successes and setbacks, the aims and hopes of the globalstruggle for the development of the under-privileged countries. Our Feb¬ruary and October 1970 issues were largely devoted to the problems ofdevelopment and our January issue dealt with education, an integral part ofeconomic and social development.

(1) The International Labour Organization the Food and Agriculture Organization ofthe United Nations the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organiza¬tion the World Health Organization the International Bank for Reconstruction andDevelopment and its two affiliates, the International Finance Corporation and the Interna¬tional Development Association the International Monetary Fund the InternationalCivil Aviation Organization the Universal Postal Union the International Telecom¬munication Union the World Meteorological Organization the IntergovernmentalMaritime Consultative Organization the International Atomic Energy Agency theGeneral Agreement on Tariffs and Trade the United Nations Conference on Trade andDevelopment the United Nations Industrial Development Organization the UnitedNations Children's Fund the United Nations Development Programme the UnitedNations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees In the Near East the Officeof the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees the United Nations Trainingand Research Institute the World Food Programme.

Used as an offensive weapon forthe first time in World War I, poisongas caused 1,300,000 casualties.Photo showing a 1914-1918cavalryman prepared for gas

-warfare is from the Italian

film "Fraulein Doktor".

Photo © Mondadorl Press, Milan

Last year an international groupof 14 specialists appointed by theU.N. Secretary-General, U Thant,undertook an extensive enquiryinto chemical and bacteriological(biological) weapons and theirpossible effects. The study wasmade in collaboration with the

World Health Organization, theFood and Agriculture Organiza¬tion, the International Committee

of the Red Cross, the PugwashConference on Science and World

Affairs and the Stockholm Inter¬

nationalPeace Research Institute.

Their report described by the U. N.Secretary-General as " conciseand authoritative " and "a docu¬

ment which provides valuableinsights into the grave dangers'posed by the production andpossible use of these dreaded

weapons ' '. was published by theU.N. in July 1969. Here, wesummarize its major conclusions.

The horror of bacteriological

and chemical weaponry

I|N the vast range of

weapons of war devised by man,chemical and biological weapons standin a class on their own as armaments

having an effect solely on living matter.Such weapons are capable of inflictingunimaginable suffering, disease anddeath on vast numbers of human

beings.

The notion of deliberately usingbacteriological weapons to spreaddisease arouses universal horror.

The fact that certain chemical and

biological weapons have a potentiallyunlimited effect, both in space andtime, and that their large-scale use

could have irreversibly harmful effectson the balance of nature adds to

present world fears and tensions.No form of warfare has been more

condemned than the use of chemical

and biological weapons.

As the destructive power of armsincreased over the years, and with itthe potential for the widespread useof chemicals, efforts were made toprohibit the use of chemical weaponsthrough international agreements. Asearly as the latter part of the 19thcentury, the Brussels Declaration of1894 and the Hague Convention of1899 prohibited the use of poisons and

CONTINUED NEXT PAGE

15

BACTERIOLOGICAL AND CHEMICAL WEAPONRY (Continued)

Blister agents, choking agents, fungi, toxins ABC of the New Terror

16

poisoned bullets, and a separatedeclaration of the Hague Conventioncondemned "the use of projectiles thesole object of which is the diffusionof asphyxiating or deleterious gases."

Most of our knowledge concerningthe use of chemical weapons is basedupon the experience of the First WorldWar. Gas was first used in 1914 and

the first big attack in 1915 claimed5,000 human lives. It is estimatedthat from then until the end of the

war in 1918, at least 125,000 tons oftoxic chemicals were used, andaccording to official reports, gascasualties numbered about 1,300,000,of which about 100,000 were fatal.

The agents used in that war weremuch less toxic than those which

could be used today, and they weredispersed by means of relativelyprimitive equipment as compared withwhat is now available and in accor¬

dance with battlefield concepts of arelatively unsophisticated kind.

Since the Second World War, theuse of biological weapons has alsobecome an increasing possibility.Their potential importance in warfareis shown by the fact that infectiousdiseases, even as late as World War II,caused more casualties among comba¬tants than all forms of enemy action.

Because there is no clear evidence

that these agents have ever been usedas modern military weapons, dis¬cussions of their characteristics and

potential threat have to draw heavilyupon experimental field and laboratorydata and on studies of naturallyoccurring outbreaks and epidemics ofinfectious disease.

The outstanding characteristic ofthese weapons, particularly the biolo¬gical, is the variability amountingunder some circumstances to un¬

predictability of their effects whichdepend on environmental and meteoro¬logical conditions and on the agentused.

They might bear not only on thoseattacked but also on the side that

initiated their use, whether or not theattacked military forces retaliated inkind. Civilians would be even more

vulnerable than the military. Thedevelopment, acquisition and deploy¬ment of chemical and bacteriologicalweapons quite apart from the questionof protection constitute a real eco¬nomic burden. And no system ofdefence, even for the richest countriesof the world, and whatever its cost,could be completely secure.

Chemical agents of warfare can bedefined as chemical substances

whether gaseous, liquid, or solid thatmight be employed because of theirdirect toxic effects on man, animalsand plants. Bacteriological agents ofwarfare are living organisms, whatevertheir nature, or infective materialderived from them, that are intended

to cause disease or death in man,

animals, or plants, and that depend ontheir ability to multiply in the person,animal,.or plant attacked.

Because they themselves do notmultiply, toxins, which are produced byliving organisms, can be considered aschemical substances. As a class,

chemical agents produce their injuriouseffects more rapidly than do biologicalagents. The time between exposureand significant effect may be minutesor even seconds for highly toxic gasesor irritating vapours. Blister agentstake a few hours to produce injury.Most chemicals used against cropsproduce no noticeable effect until afew days have elapsed.

On the other hand, a bacteriologicalagent must multiply in the body ofthe victim before disease or injuryoccurs. This period is rarely as shortas one or two days and may be aslong as a few weeks or even longer.For both chemical and bacteriologicalagents the speed of action is affectedby the quantity absorbed.

The effects of most chemical agentsthat do not kill quickly do not lastlong, except in the case of someagents such as phosgene and mustard,

where they might continue for someweeks, months, or longer. On theother hand, bacteriological agents thatare not quickly lethal cause illnesslasting days or even weeks.

Chemical weapons, in addition totheir highly toxic short-term effects,may also have a long-term effect onthe environment in which they aredispersed. If used in very high con¬centration they might cause damageby polluting the air or water suppliesand by poisoning the soil.

In circumstances that favour their

persistence, herbicides, defoliants, andperhaps some other chemical agentsmight linger for months, stunting thegrowth of surviving or subsequentplant life, and even changing the floralpattern through selection. Followingrepeated use, certain chemical agentscould even influence soil structure.

The organophosphorous, or nerve,agents have never been used in war,and no corresponding experience isavailable to help form a judgementabout their possible long-term effects.But since these agents are toxic toall forms of animal life, it is to beexpected that if high concentrationswere dispersed over large areas, and

This is what the World Health Organization estimates

gical weapons were made on

VX NERVE GAS

Assuming 4 tons of VX nerve gas mixture released over a line 2 kilometres

long, and 150.000 persons exposed to a lethal concentration :

80,000 persons would die before help arrived.

40,000 more persons might die within 48 hours.

35,000 persons might be saved if given immediate treatment.

10,000 survivors would require intensive hospital care.

Hospitals would be swamped and it would take two weeks to bury the

dead.

In 1955, a new class of nerve gases known as V-agents were discovered

in a commercial insecticide laboratory; VX gas is one of the most lethal of

these chemical weapons.

VX gas, inhaled or absorbed through the skin, can kill quickly by poisoning

the nervous system. g

A minute quantity (0.1 of a milligram) of VX gas can kill if inhaled, 5 milli¬

grams are fatal when absorbed through the skin. Doses as small as this killwithin hours, heavier doses kill within half an hour.

1 VX nerve gas could also be used to create long-term contamination of

ground, vegetation and equipment.

if certain species were virtually exter¬minated, the dynamic ecological equili¬brium of the region might be changed.

Chemical agents, usually describedIn terms of their physiological effects,include the following:

Nerve agents: colourless, odourless,tasteless chemicals, of the same familyas organophosphorus insecticides.They poison the nervous system anddisrupt vital body functions. Theyconstitute the most modern war

chemicals known; they kill quickly andare more potent than are any otherchemical agents (except toxins).

Blister agents (vesicants): oilyliquids which, in the main, burn andblister the skin within hours after

exposure, but which also have generaltoxic effects. Mustard gas is a goodexample. Blister agents caused morecasualties than any other chemicalagent used in World War I.

Choking agents: highly volatileliquids which, when breathed as gases,irritate. and severely Injure the lungs,causing death from choking. Theywere introduced in World War I and

are of much lower potency than thenerve agents.

Blood agents: also intended toenter the body through the respiratorytract. They produce death by inter¬fering with the utilization of oxygen bythe tissues. They, too, are much lesstoxic than nerve agents.

Toxins: biologically produced che¬mical substances which are very highlytoxic and may act by ingestion orinhalation.

Tear and harassing gases: sensoryirritants which cause a temporary flowof tears, irritation of the skin andrespiratory tract, and occasionallynausea and vomiting. They have beenwidely used as riot control agents, andalso in war.

Psycho-chemicals: drug-like che¬micals intended to cause temporarymental disturbances.

What are the possible effects of anerve gas attack on a city?

The population density in a moderncity may be 5,000 people per squarekilometre. A heavy surprise attackwith non-volatile nerve gas by bombsexploding on impact in a wholly un¬prepared town would cause heavylosses, especially at rush hours. Halfof the population might become

could happen if a minor attack with chemical or biolo-

a city of 5 million inhabitants

PNEUMONIC PLAGUE

Assuming an attack by a single bomber spraying 50 kilogrammes of dried

powder of pneumonic plague in the form of aerosol along a 2 kilometre line :

150,000 persons would be directly infected.

36,000 of these would die.

80,000 to 100,000 persons would require hospitalization and isolation.

Secondary cases would occur amongst the rest of the population with

perhaps 500,000 additional persons affected.

100,000 deaths in all could be expected.

People fleeing the city in terror would cause minor outbreaks in other

cities.

Burial and hospital facilities would be overwhelmed.

Plague, is highly infective, easy to prepare in large quantities and. when

stored, retains its virulence for many years.

Bubonic plague, the usual form of the disease, is spread to man by fleas

from infected rats. Between 25 and 50 per cent of its victims die if untreated.

The incubation period is 2 to 6 days.

Pneumonic plague, a more virulent form of the disease, is spread from

man to man by droplet infection. After an incubation period of 3 to 4 days

it causes primary pneumonia which is usually fatal.

The 'black death', the plague epidemic of 1348, wiped out over a quarter

of the population of Europe.

All figures and Information taken from "Health Aspects of Chemical and Biological Weapons",a report published by the World Health Organization, Geneva, 1970 (Price $4.00, 24/-, 12 Sw.F).

casualties, half of them fatal, if aboutone ton of agent were dispersed persquare kilometre.

If such a city were prepared forattack, and if the preparations includeda civil defence organization with ade¬quately equipped shelters and pro¬tective masks for the population, thelosses might be reduced to one halfof those which would be anticipatedin conditions of total surprise.

Given a town with a total populationof 80,000, a surprise attack with nervegas could thus cause 40,000 casualties,half of them fatal, whereas under idealcircumstances for the defence, fatali¬ties might number no more than 2,000.It is inconceivable, however, that the¡deal would ever be attained.

Bacteriological agents could be usedwith the intention of killing people orof incapacitating them for short or longperiods. The agents, however, cannotbe defined rigidly as either lethal orincapacitating, since their effects aredependent upon many factors relatingnot only to themselves but also to theindividuals they attack. Any disease-producing agent intended to incapa¬citate may, under certain conditions,bring about a fatal disease.

Bacteriological weapons could bedirected against man's sources of foodthrough the spread of persistent plantdiseases or of infectious animal

diseases. There is also the possibilitythat new epidemic diseases could beintroduced, or old ones reintroduced,which could result in deaths on the

scale which characterized the med¬

ieval plagues.

All such diseases occur naturally,and the organisms that cause them,with few exceptions, are knownto scientists throughout the world.Different populations have varyingdegrees of resistance to the diseasesproduced by biological agents. Aninfectious disease which might be onlymildly incapacitating in one populationmight prove disastrous to another.For example, when measles was firstintroduced into the Hawaiian Islands,it caused far more deaths than in the

relatively resistant " populations ofEurope.

A biological weapon which might beintended only to incapacitate could behighly lethal against a populationwhere resistance had been lowered as

a result of malnutrition. Conversely,a weapon which was intended tospread a lethal disease might onlycause occasional mild illness in peoplewho had been given a protectivevaccine or who had become immuneas a result of natural infection. The

history of epidemiology is rich withsurprises.

A large number of potential agentscan be directed against human beings.Among those which might be used are:

Viruses: the smallest forms of life.

CONTINUED PAGE 20

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The stockpiling of new types of 'secret agents'

20

Most of them can be seen only withthe electron microscope, and must begrown on living tissue (tissue cultures,fertile eggs, etc.). Genetic manipula¬tion of the whole virus or chemical

manipulation of its nucleic acid, mightbe used to acquire strains of highervirulence.

Rickettsiae: intermediate between

the viruses and bacteria. Like the

viruses, they grow only in living tissue.

Bacteria: larger than viruses, theycan be easily grown on a large scaleemploying equipment and processessimilar to those used in the fermenta¬

tion industry. Although many disease-producing bacteria are susceptible toantibiotic drugs, antibiotic-resistantstrains occur naturally and can beselected or obtained through the useof suitable methods of genetic mani¬pulation. Similarly, it is possible toselect strains with increased resistance

to inactivation by sunlight and drying.

Fungi: these produce a number ofdiseases in man, but very few speciesappear to have any potential in biologi¬cal warfare.

Protozoa: one-celled microscopicorganisms which cause several im¬portant human diseases, includingmalaria. Because of their complexlife cycles they too appear to havelittle significance in the present context.

Parasitic worms: among them arehook-worm and the filarial worms

which have very complicated lifecycles. They cause illness anddisability only after long exposure andrepeated infection and would be extre¬mely difficult to produce in quantity,to store, to transport or to spread ina weapon. Insects are also difficultto conceive of as weapons. Some,such as the mosquito and the tick,are transmitters of disease, and as"vectors" have to be looked upon ashaving potential military significance.

Biological anti-animal agents, suchas foot-and-mouth disease and anthrax

would be used primarily to destroydomestic animals, thereby affectingman by reducing his food supply.

Outbreaks of contagious disease inanimal populations, known as epi¬zootics, may spread much more readilythan do epidemics among humanbeings. Viral infections are probablymore serious for animals than those

caused by other micro-organisms.Most of the bacterial diseases of

animals which could probably be usedin warfare are also transmissible to

man. Human beings would be expect¬ed to get the disease if they wereaffected by the attacking aerosolcloud, and occasional individuals mightcontract the disease from infectedanimals.

The natural occurrence of devastat¬

ing plant diseases such as the blightof potatoes in Ireland in 1845, thecoffee rust of the 1870s in Ceylon, the

chestnut blight of 1904 in the UnitedStates of America, and the widespreadoutbreaks today of cereal (especiallywheat) rusts has suggested that plantpathogens might be used for militarypurposes.

Large-scale bacteriological attackscould have a serious impact on theentire economy of the target country.Depending on the type of agent used,the disease might well spread toneighbouring countries.

Whatever might be done to try tosave human beings, nothing significantcould be done to protect crops, live¬stock, fodder, and food-stuffs from achemical and bacteriological weaponsattack. Persistent chemical agentscould constitute a particular danger tolivestock. Water in open reservoirscould be polluted as a result ofdeliberate attack, or perhaps accident¬ally, with chemical or bacteriologicalweapons. The water supply of largetowns could become unusable, andrivers, lakes and streams might betemporarily contaminated.

T.ODAY a large number of

industrialized countries have the po¬tential to produce a variety of chemicalagents. Many of the intermediatesrequired in their manufacture, and insome cases even the agents them¬selves, are widely used in peacetime.

Such substances include, for exam¬ple, phosgene, which is used in themanufacture of plastics and whichsome highly developed countriesproduce at the rate of more than100,000 tons a year; ethylene-oxide,which is used in the manufacture of

mustard gases, is also produced on alarge scale in various countries foruse in the manufacture of detergents,disinfectants, etc.; mustard gas andnitrogen mustard gases can be produc¬ed from ethylene-oxide by a relativelysimple process. Other industrial pro¬cesses could similarly be adapted forthe production of biological agents.

The development of sophisticatedand comprehensive weapons systemsfor chemical or bacteriological warfarewould require a very costly additionaleffort. Nevertheless, the possibilitythat a peacetime industry could beconverted to work for military pur¬poses increases the responsibility ofgovernments that are concerned aboutpreventing chemical and biological warfrom ever breaking out.

The potential for developing anarmoury of chemical and bacteriolo¬gical weapons has grown considerablyin recent years, not only in terms ofthe number of agents, but also in theirtoxicity and in the diversity of theireffects.

But chemical and bacteriological

weapons are not a cheap substitutefor other kinds of weapons. Theyrepresent an additional drain on thenational resources of those countries

by which they are developed, produc¬ed, and stockpiled. The cost cannot,of course, be estimated with precision;this would depend on the potential ofa country's industry.

Because chemical and bacteriolo¬

gical weapons are unpredictable, invarying degree, either in the scaleor duration of their effects, andbecause no certain defence can be

planned against them, their universalelimination would not detract from anynation's security.

Once any chemical or bacteriologicalweapon had been used in warfare,there would be a serious risk of

escalation, both in the use of more

dangerous weapons belonging to thesame class and of other weapons ofmass destruction. In short, thedevelopment of a chemical or bacterio¬logical armoury and a defence, impliesan economic burden without necessar¬

ily imparting any proportionate com¬pensatory advantage to security. Andit imposes a new and continuing threatto future international security.

Were these weapons ever to beused on a large scale in war, no onecould predict how enduring the effectswould be, and how they would affectthe structure of society and the envi¬ronment in which we live. This

overriding danger would apply asmuch to the country that initiated theuse of these weapons as to the onewhich had been attacked, regardlessof what protective measures it mighthave taken in parallel with its develop¬ment of an offensive capability.

A particular danger also derivesfrom the fact that any country coulddevelop or acquire, in one way oranother, a capability in this type ofwarfare, despite the fact that this couldprove costly. The danger of theproliferation of this class of weaponsapplies as much to the developing asit does to developed countries.

The momentum of the arms race

would clearly decrease if the produc¬tion of these weapons were effectivelyand unconditionally banned. Theiruse, which could cause an enormous

loss of human life, has already beencondemned and prohibited by inter¬national agreements, in particular theGeneva Protocol of 1925, and, morerecently, in resolutions of the GeneralAssembly of the United Nations.

The prospects for general andcomplete disarmament under effectiveinternational control and hence forpeace throughout the world, wouldbrighten significantly if the develop¬ment, production, and stockpiling ofchemical and bacteriological agentsintended for purposes of war were toend and if they were eliminated fromall military arsenals.

'Atoms X", painted In1969 by AnnaSzpakowska-Kujawska,a young Polish artistfrom Wroclaw.

Peace research

-the science of survival

by Bert V. A. Röling

BERT V. A. ROUNG is secretary generalof the International Peace Research Associa¬

tion and professor of international law anddirector of the Polemological Institute at theUniversity of Groningen (Netherlands).From 1950 to 1957 he was a member of the

Netherlands Delegation to the United NationsGeneral Assembly. He is the author of"International Law in an Expanded World"(1960) and "On War and Peace" (3rd edition,1967, In Dutch). The present text is basedon a study by Mr. Röling, published inUnesco's science quarterly, 'Impact ofScience on Society", (Vol. XVIII, N' 2)April-lune 1968.

wAR was long regarded as

a scourge of God, as a meansof chastising mankind. The LondonCity Council in 1665, for instance,considered the plague epidemic afflict¬ing their city as an atonement requiredby the Lord for the impious writings ofThomas Hobbes.

Only when war was seen as justanother facet of human inadequacycould it become the subject ofscholarly contemplation. The firstbranches of learning to regard war asman-made were theology, ethics andjurisprudence. However, each ofthese naturally tended to take anormative view, to set up standards of

Tightness and wrongness.

The study of war and peace as anobjective branch of learning could only

begin at a rather late period in history,when scholars no longer sought to setup judgements, but rather sought toexamine war and its causes with the

objective of understanding the factorsand relationships that play their parts.The first contributions were made byhistorians, political scientists, econo¬mists and sociologists.

The First World War had alreadymade it clear that war had ceased to

be "limited", mainly involving armies,and had become "total", involving theentire population of a nation.

The Second World War added a

new dimension by the introduction ofnuclear weapons. Total war has nowevolved into its ultimate state: anni¬

hilating war.

CONTINUED NEXT PAGE

21

PEACE RESEARCH (Continued)

22

This is the problem of our times:war has now become unendurable, but

the relations between the states, the

international system, have remainedthe same. We still have sovereignstates which seek security in their ownmilitary power and want to ensurepeace by "deterrence", by the "balanceof terror", the modern interpretation of

the ancient adage: si vis pacem parabellum if you wish for peace, preparefor war.

Though total nuclear war can nowmean the end of our technical civiliza¬

tion, the prevailing system of peacethrough power which implies furtherarms research, a continuation of thearms race, an increase in the arms

trade, the gradual spread of nuclearweapons, must inevitably lead sooneror later to nuclear war.

Peace research has its origins in theanxiety aroused by this problem ofwar. The desire for peace is nolonger based on moral or emotionalgrounds, but now has its foundation inthe human reason. It is our soundlyrational fears which have caused the

question to be put whether a scholarlyapproach to the problem of war mightnot contribute to its solution.

Thus, after the Second World War

the field of peace research enjoyed arapid increase in interest and growth.Today peace research institutes aresprouting up everywhere in the world,while numerous other institutions have

added peace research investigationsto their list of activities.

It seems to me that the whole

spectrum of peace research projectsfalls into four well-defined categories:war; peace; man, society and the inter¬national system; the means of bringingabout change.

The Study Ot war. Researchprojects in this category examine thecauses of wars, the various forms in

which war manifests itself, the functions

of war and the effects of war. Clearlythe study of war is a particulary diffi¬cult one since causes, manifestations,

functions and effects will vary in eachcase according to time and placealthough in each case the variouselements are always interdependent.The fact that each war has its own

history and its own process of develop¬ment vastly complicates the study.

Ever since Von Clausewitz' Vom

Kriege, war has been primarily thoughtof as a "continuation of policy bymilitary means." Von Clausewitz pro¬vides what nowadays is often calledthe strategic war model. As opposedto this, there is the cataclysmic war

model, such as is outlined in Tolstoy'sWar and Peace: war as an unwanted

and unpremeditated event, the resultof blind social forces, disaster arisingout of hazardous international inter¬

course, or to put it another way outof dangerous international "traffic".

The difference may be stated thus:in international traffic, the Clausewitz

war is a deliberate manner of driving,the Tolstoy war a traffic accident.

If it may be said that strategic totalwar has been eliminated from the

repertoire of practical internationalbehaviour, accidental total war, result¬

ing from the escalation of manoeuvresin conflict situations, has not. Nor, as

a glance at the world situation tellsus, have either strategic or accidentallimited wars. What this all makes

clear is that the danger for the worldlies in the "accident", in conflict situa¬

tions, whether between big states orsmall, chain-reacting out of control.

This spotlights the reason why theaspect of peace research receiving thegreatest attention by workers in thisfield is general conflict theory.

This entire study of war is now widelyknown among peace researchers aspolemology, from the Greek, potemos,"war". Some hold, in fact, that pole¬mology is a field apart from butcomplementary to peace research,which they feel rather pertains to thespecific question of how to maintainor re-establish peace. I myself believethat in practice there is no real distinc¬tion between polemology and peaceresearch and that the two terms are,

in fact, synonymous.

A few peace research institutionsare specifically oriented towards thestudy of war. Among them may bementioned the Institut Français de

Polémologie in Paris. However, otherpeace research institutions are alsostrongly involved in this same area;two-thirds of all institutions totally orpartially dedicated to peace researchare interested in general conflicttheory, a branch of polemology.

The attempt to formulate a generalconflict theory follows from the recogni¬tion of two points: that conflict charac¬terizes almost all social systems ofall sizes and that conflicts show fairlysimilar patterns in the way they evolve.Thus, conflicts within the family, ineconomic life as illustrated by labourstrife in political life, in religion, inrace relations and in international rela¬

tions all have observable similarities.

The objective of studies of thesemanifestations is to find the basic

generalizations which apply to all andto assemble such generalizations intoa theory of conflict, similar in kind toeconomic theory.

A general conflict theory, onceformulated, would enable the predictionof results, as does any scientifictheory. As applied to conflicts, thismeans the prediction of the course ofdevelopment and probable outcomeof a conflict situation, once the data ofthe particular case and the knownstructural facts of society have beenestablished.

Given the predicted probable out¬come of the trend of a given conflictsituation, it would be theoreticallypossible, if the trend indicated is

towards war, to put brakes on thesituation before it got out of hand.Clearly, the development of a generalconflict theory, or even of a soundworking hypothesis, would be of greatvalue in reducing the chances of acci¬dental wars.

Polemology not only includes studiesdirectly relating to general conflicttheory, such as comparisons betweenindustrial conflicts and international

conflicts, but other research projectson such topics as the nature of cultural

conflicts in periods of change, rela¬tionships between population increasesand war, the relationships betweenwar-mindedness in a culture and other

aspects of that culture, and generalmilitary strategy.

Some projects in this area deal withsimulations of conflict situations, some¬

times using computers, and withmodels of international conflict, whereinthe several national factors involved

in the development of internationalconflicts are examined.

The study of peace. Thisarea of peace research examines thevarious forms of peace and the pro¬blems in a state of peace which tendto destroy it.

When talking about peace, certainbasics must be realized. It can be

asserted that peace is not a naturalstate. It is in the nature of man and

beast to be primarily concerned withself, to identify self with things dearto it, and to be stout in their defence.

This should not be misinterpreted.I do not mean to say that war has itsroots in that which is animal in man,because, among animals, a life-and-death struggle between members ofthe same species is a rarity. Theyfight for a female, or for living space,or in order to determine which is the

stronger. Moreover, the large-scalegroup fight between bodies of conge¬ners occurs, with the exception ofsome species of rats, only among men.

So it is hardly scientific to call war

CONTINUED PAGE 30

1 00 wars and other conflicts

since World War IIMore than 100 wars or other international and national conflicts and

disputes have occurred since the end of the Second World War. These rangein scale from outright international wars and major civil wars to incidents

with differing degrees of conflict. On this page, grouped by region, we presenta line-up of the major and other conflicts that have erupted in different partsof the world between 1945 and 1968. How precarious the bird ofpeace!Presentation below is based on tables published in the SIPRI Yearbook of WorldArmaments and Disarmament, 1968-69.

EUROPE

Greek civil war (Greece, Yugoslavia, Albania, Bulgaria,U:S.A.) ; Berlin crisis (U.S.S.R., NATO) ; Trieste question(Yugoslavia, Italy) ; Corfu channel rights (U.K., Albania) ;Cyprus independence (U.K., EOKA forces) ; Hungariancrisis (U.S.S.R., Hungary) ; Cyprus (Cyprus, Greece andTurkey, UN.intervention) ; Greek military coup (civil govern¬ment and political parties, military junta) ; Cyprus question(civil government and Greece, Turkish minority and Tur¬key) ; Czechoslovaks crisis (Czechoslovakia, U.S.S.R.,Poland, East Germany, Bulgaria and Hungary).

MIDDLE EAST

AND NORTH AFRICA

Iran (Iran, U.S.S.R.) ; Egypt Independence (U.K., Egypt) ;Palestine question (Israel, Egypt, Iraq, Transjordan, Syria,Lebanon) ; Arab-Israeli War I {Israel, Egypt, Iraq, Transjor-dan, Syria, Lebanon) ; Morocco (France, Morocco) ; Tuni¬sia (France, Tunisia); Iran (U.K., Iran); Algerian war ofindependence (France, Algeria) ; Aden-Yemen border (U.K.,Yemeni tribes) ; Suez invasion (U.K., France, Israel, Egypt) ;Sinai campaign (Israel, Egypt) ; Spanish Morocco (Spain,Morocco) ; Muscat-Oman revolt (U.K., Muscat-Oman) ;Lebanon and Lebanon civH war (U.K., U.S.A., Jordan, Leba¬non) ; Mosul (Iraq) revolt (Iraq government, rebel officers) ;Tunisia-Bizerta crisis (France, Tunisia) ; Iraq-Kurds (civilgovernment, Kurds) ; Kuwait intervention (Iraq, Kuwait, U.K.,Arab League) ; Morocco-Algeria border (Morocco, Algeria,Organization of African States intervention) ; Yemen civilwar (royalists, republicans, U.A.R. and Saudi Arabia) ; Adencivil war (U.K., Aden, Yemen, U.A.R.) ; Syrian coup d'état(civil government military rebels) ; Arab-Israeli War II(Israel, U.A.R., Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon).

FAR EAST AND SOUTH ASIA

Indonesian war of independence (Dutch government, natio¬nalists); Indo-China war, Viet-Nam I (France, Indo-Chinâ,Laos and Cambodia) ; Chinese civil war (Kuomintang, Chi¬nese communist party, U.S.A.) ; Indian communal riots(India, Pakistan) ; Taiwan-Formosa (Kuomintang, Taiwa¬nese) ; Hyderabad, India (Indian government, Nizam andMoslems) ; Kashmir (India, Pakistan) ; Philippines civil war(Philippine government, Hukbalahap rebels) ; Burmese civilwar (Burmese government, Karen and Shan tribesmen) ;Malayan insurgency (U.K., Malaya, and Malayan communistparty) ; Burmese border conflict (Burma, Kuomintangforces); Korean war (North Korea, Mainland China, Rep.of Korea, U.S.A. and U.N.); Tibet I (Tibetan govt., MainlandChina); Quemoy-Matsu Islands (Mainland China, Rep. of

China, U.S.A.); Tibet II (Mainland China, Tibetan guerrillas);Viet-Nam war II {North Viet-Nam, Rep. of Viet-Nam,U.S.A.); Naga revolt in India (Indian government, Nagas);Burmese border conflict (Burma, Mainland China);Indonesian civil war (government, communists) ; Laotiancivil war (royalists, republicans) ; Longju and Ladutchincidents (Mainland China, India) ; Thailand, Cambodianborder (Cambodia, Thailand) ; West Irian (Indonesia,Netherlands) ; Goa, India (India, Portugal) ; Nepal civil war(government, insurgents) ; Viet-Nam war III (Rep. of Viet-Nam, F.N.L., North Viet-Nam, U.S.A., Philippines, Rep. ofKorea, Thailand, Australia, New Zealand) ; Brunei revolt(Brunei, U.K., Sarawak, North Borneo) ; Indian frontier war(India, Mainland China) ; Malaysian confrontation (Indone¬sia, Malaysia, U.K., Australia, New Zealand) ; Thailandinsurgency (government, Insurgents, U.S.A.) ; Rann of Kutch(Pakistan, India) ; India-Pakistan (Pakistan, India) ; Indone¬sian crisis (government, insurgents).

LATIN AMERICA

Bolivia (government, insurgents); Bolivia (government,insurgents); Paraguay (government, insurgents); Costa Rica(Costa Rica, Nicaragua); Colombia (government, insur¬gents); Honduras {Honduras, Nicaragua); Honduras (Hon¬duras, Nicaragua, Guatemala); Nicaragua (Nicaragua, CostaRica); Guatemalan intervention (Guatemala, U.S.A.); Cuba(government Castro rebels); Venezuela (Venezuela, Domi¬nican Republic); Dominican Republic (Dominican Republic,U.S.A.); Cuba (Bay of Pigs) (Cuba, United States); Cubacrisis (Cuba, U.S.S.R., U.S.A.); Cuba missile crisis (Cuba,U.S.S.R., U.S.A., Organization of American States); Panamacanal (Panama, U.S.A.); Guatemala (government, insur¬gents); Dominican Republic (government, insurgents, U.S.A.,Organization of American States); Peru (government,insurgents).

AFRICA

Madagascar (France, Madagascar); Kenya-Mau-Mau (U.K.,Mau-Mau); Cameroons (France, U.K., nationalists); Ruanda-Urundi (Bahutus and Watusi); Congo (Congo, Katangaprovince, U.N. forces); Angola (Portugal, Angolans); Soma¬lia-Ethiopia (Somalia, Ethiopia); Burundi (Ruanda, Burundi);Portuguese Guinea (Portuguese government, nationalists, ;Kenya, Somalia (Kenya, Somalia, U.K.); East Africanmutinies (Kenya, Uganda, Tanganika, U.K.); Congo-Kinshasa(government, insurgents, Belgium, U.S.A.); Mozambique(Portugal, nationalists); Nigeria (coup d'état: government,army); Ghana (coup d'état: government, army); Congo-Kinshasa (Kisangani mutiny, government, army); Rhodesiancrisis (U.K., white Rhodesian minority rule); Nigeria (govern¬ment, "Biafra" insurgents); Sudan, Uganda (Sudan, Uganda).

This year for the first time Unesco has awarded two literacy prizes.At a ceremony in Teheran on International Literacy Day, September 8,the Mohammad Reza Pahlavi prize (created by the Shahinshah of Iranin 1967) was awarded to the "Radio Schools of Sutatenza" in Colombia

(see photo story below). The Nadezhda K. Krupskaya prize, donated bythe Government of the U.S.S.R., went to the Institute of Language andLiterature of the Mongolian People's Republic for its efforts to elimi¬nate illiteracy in Mongolia (see "Unesco Courier", November 1969).Honourable mention was given to organizations in Ethiopia, France,India, Rwanda, Tunisia, Sudan, Iran, Mexico and Congo (Brazzaville).The article by Miguel Soler Roca published opposite surveys theproblems of illiteracy in Latin America today within the framework ofthe continent's overall development problems.

Photo © Pierre A. Pittet. Geneva

To bring education to Colombia'sIsolated mountain communities,a young priest. Father José Salcedo,(right) started a radio school in 1948,In the Andean villageof Sutatenza, 140 kilometresfrom Bogota (see "Unesco Courier",February 1955 and August-September 1969)Within a few years Radio Sutatenzahad over 200,000 pupils.Today the network of radio schoolsnumbers more than 160,000 receivers,and Acción Cultural Popular, as RadioSutatenza is now known, broadcaststo groups throughout Colombia. Above,youngsters tune in to their radio teacher.Far right, villagers crowd into atheatre run by Acción Cultural Popular.

by Miguel Soler Roca

The education

revolution

in Latin America

THEY had made the long

journey through the jungle from theirdistant villages and now, in thewelcome shade of a huge lapachotree, they settled down in a circleready to listen to us. We were"somewhere in Latin America".

Our audience was composed ofleaders of groups of settlers who werecarving out a new life for themselveson their jungle land-grants which theywere gradually clearing with fire, axeand machete. Almost all of them were

young and they came from parts ofthe country where the land wasexhausted and holdings, split intominifundios, were too small to supporttheir families. Here in the jungle,despite the many difficulties to beovercome, they were getting a secondand, perhaps, a last chance.

We had been visiting similar settle¬ments for several days. It was clearthat the settlers sensed the profoundchange in their lives created by theirnew circumstances and that theywanted to educate themselves. The

group now surrounding us repeatedthe same tale that we had heard

elsewhere: most of them, especiallythe women, were illiterate; there were

no schools, but they were prepared tobuild one and attend it, the children

in the morning, the women in theafternoon and the men at night.

One of us asked, "Why do you wantan education? What good will readingand writing be to you in the middleof the jungle?" I noted down someof the replies. "We have to signimportant papers with a thumbprint;we want to be able to read them for

ourselves." "We have debts, but we

don't want to have other people keep¬ing our accounts." "There are bookson farming which could teach us manyuseful things." "We also want edu¬cation for our wives; they could learnhow to feed the children better and

to nurse them when they are ill." Oneman, more mature than the others,

summed up the replies when he said,

"We do not know why we are workingor who we are working for."

The. Education Ministers of the world

had said much the same thing, but inmore technical language, at the 1965Teheran Conference on the Eradication

of Illiteracy, when they declared, "tobe effective, literacy programmes mustbe sufficiently varied in form andcontent to take into account differen¬

ces in age, sex, social condition andenvironment, as well as the interests

of the adults themselves, their moti¬vations and the possibilities for imme¬diate application."

Since 1965, increasing efforts havebeen made to promote global literacy.It has become more generally accept¬ed that a literacy campaign must aimnot merely to teach people to readand write; that it must help them tounderstand, to quote the settler'swords, "Why they are working andwho they are working for."

Unesco, therefore, is aiding a num¬ber of countries to experiment withmethods based on the relationshipbetween literacy and the needs ofmen and women in their work and

everyday life. Every year since 1965,on International Literacy Day, Septem¬ber 8, educators and political andreligious leaders re-affirm the needfor greater efforts to free the worldfrom ignorance. And scores of natio¬nal, regional and international meetingshave studied the technical aspects ofthe problem.

Much has thus been learned about

illiteracy and how to tackle It. Yetestimates show that each year thereare five million more illiterate men and

women in the world. In 1970 the

global figure is 783 million, or 50 millionmore than in 1960. This rising tide ofilliteracy, a paradox in an era when

man's expanding knowledge and skills

CONTINUED NEXT PAGE

MIGUEL SOLER ROCA is Unesco repre¬sentative at the Regional Office for EducationIn Latin America, at Santiago, Chile. AUruguayan specialist in adult education, hewas director of CREFAL, the regional head- _quarters for functional literacy programmes yfiin rural areas of Latin America at Patzcuaro, imilMexico, from 1964 to 1969. He previously .worked In Bolivia as a Unesco specialist Inrural education.

EDUCATION IN LATIN AMERICA (Continued)

Literacy and social justice

have made possible astounding techno¬logical achievements, focuses attentionon all the obstacles that prevent thecreation of just and stable societies.

In absolute terms Latin America

Is in a better position than Africaor Asia. It has an estimated 50 million

illiterate men and women, but theyrepresent less than six per cent ofworld illiteracy. And if we compareilliteracy figures for 1960 or there¬abouts with those of some ten yearsearlier, the situation appears to bestabilized.

But when we compare Latin Amer¬ica with other regions of the ThirdWorld, we should recall that: Latin

American countries achieved indepen¬dence over 150 years ago; that theratio between Latin America's popu¬lation and natural resources is by nomeans disproportionate; and that bythe start of the present century, everyLatin American country had set up asystem of primary education whichshould theoretically have served asthe foundation for economic progressand political democracy. A compa¬rison on this basis brings home theharsh realities of the present situationIn Latin America.

The level of adult illiteracy in LatinAmerican countries today ranges from4 to almost 90 per cent. Statistics areoften incomplete and out of date.Those that do exist show that in six

of Unesco's 24 member states in Latin

America and the Caribbean, over half

the population is illiterate. In six other

countries illiteracy runs from 25 to50 per cent and in a further seven,

from 10 to 25 per cent. In only fivecountries is it lower than 10 per cent.

A direct link obviously existsbetween the level of illiteracy andthe effectiveness of a regular educa¬tional system. That is why Unescolaunched and supported a MajorProject for the expansion and improv¬ement of primary education in LatinAmerica, between 1956 and 1966.

The project made spectacular pro¬gress, and this helps to explain whythe problem of illiteracy, even in theface of a massive population increase,has not attained more alarming pro¬portions. Primary, secondary anduniversity enrolments have risen ata far higher rate than Latin America'spopulation growth a remarkable edu¬cational achievement.

But even the 10-year Major Projectfailed to solve the acute problem ofschool drop-outs. Most children, even

at the primary level where schooling

is obligatory, were still failing tocomplete their studies. The propor¬tion finishing the sixth year," comparedto those starting school, fluctuatedbetween 8 and 50 per cent. In 13countries, less than 25 per cent ofchildren remained in school for the

full six years.

Unesco is following up this problem,taking as a principle that literacyrequires at least four years of primaryschooling to become definitive. Incom¬plete education is obviously one ofthe chief causes of illiteracy, yet howmany children stay at school for evenfour years? The answer is, in thecities the great majority; in the ruralareas very few.

The result Is seen in the statistics

of some Latin American countries.

These show a relatively low rate ofadult illiteracy, but a percentage ofpeople with less than four years ofschooling that is 20, 30 or even40 per cent higher.

An alarming disparity thus existsbetween statistical illiteracy and actualilliteracy. It is here that the rural

primary school, ill-equipped, Isolatedand offering only a brief education, isseen as the main source of adult

illiterates, men and women who relaps¬ed Into illiteracy after leaving schoolor who may never have been fullyliterate in the first place.

BOOK reading is another

yardstick for measuring the effective¬ness of schooling and literacy pro¬grammes. Here, statistics show thatpublic libraries in the U.S.A. andCanada have more than one book

per head of population whereas libra¬ries in some Latin American countries

have only one book for every 200persons.

In the case of the daily press, thevisitor to Latin America may be misledby the large number of newspaperspublished in the capital cities. Butmost of these papers have very limitedcirculations. In fact statistics show

that whereas the annual per capitaconsumption of newsprint in the UnitedStates is 42 kilogrammes, in at leastseven Latin American and Caribbean

countries it is less than 2 kilogrammes.

If to all these facts we add that the

proportion of Gross National Productallocated to education in Latin Ame¬

rica varies from 1.7 to 5.6 per cent,it becomes clear that the difference

in levels of illiteracy reflects the limi-

The illiterate Isblocked at the foot

of the economic and

social ladder. In

Latin America there

are still 50 million

illiterate adults, despitetremendous stridesmade In education

in recent years.

tations and weaknesses of the entire

educational system.

It Is nowadays a commonplace tosay that illiteracy is directly relatedto a country's level of development.Illiteracy and economic underdevel¬opment are virtually synonymous. Thusilliteracy co-exists with low incomes,falling export prices, a dependenteconomy, and a large rural population,of whom the majority are employedin farming. It is found where techno¬logy is lagging, where productivity islow, particularly in agriculture, wherelife expectancies are 10, 15 or even

20 years lower than in the developingcountries, and where diets are defi¬

cient in calories and protein even ona continent blessed with fertile soils

and a variety of climates.

And these are not the only conse¬quences of illiteracy. Its effects areseen in the rigidity of social structures,the exclusion from political life of thevast majority of the people, the exo¬dus of able men and women from

countryside to city and sometimesabroad, industries incapable of absorb¬ing the surplus of manpower. It isreflected, too, in unco-ordinated work¬

ing methods, instability in publicadministration and politics, the absence

of coherent and responsible publicopinion, a widening . gap .betweengenerations and an increase in contes¬tation, demonstrations and violence of

every kind.

1

Photo © Yves Billon

Today a vast programme for thepromotion of literacy is under way inwhich the most promising and mostdiscussed projects are those ofUnesco's Experimental World Pro¬gramme of Functional Literacy. Theyare operating in twelve countries,financed from national resources and

from the funds of the United Nations

Development Programme. Through anumber of these projects, Unesco ishelping to evaluate the problems ofilliteracy in Latin America and issupporting the efforts of each countryto overcome them.

Under the Experimental Programme,Unesco has sent out teams to assess

literacy teaching programmes in anumber of Latin American countries.

Since the central aim of the programmeis to confirm the relationship betweenfunctional literacy and economic de¬velopment, each team is composed ofan educator and an economist.

Experimental projects based onthese exploratory studies were begunin Ecuador in 1967, and in Venezuela

in 1969, the latter financed exclusivelyfrom national resources. In Brazil,

Chile and Jamaica, a series of "micro-

experiments" have been studyingproblems such as literacy teachingmethods, and the use of teaching aidsand audio-visual media.

Latin America has one of the first

centres for training educators created

under United Nations auspicesCREFAL (originally set up as theFundamental Education Centre for

Community Development in LatinAmerica). CREFAL, established at Patz-cuaro, in Michoacan State, Mexico, in

1951, is an outstanding example ofeffective collaboration between a host

country, Mexico, Unesco, the Organiza¬tion of American States and a number

of U.N. Specialized Agencies.

FROM 1951 to 1960, CREFAL

concentrated on training teachers forprogrammes of fundamental education.From 1961 to 1968, it ran courses on

community development, and since1969, when it became the regionalheadquarters for functional literacyprogrammes in rural areas of LatinAmerica, it has sought to promote newideas about literacy in the countriesof the region.

CREFAL organizes internationaltraining courses, publishes studies onteaching methods and materials, sendsits specialists to advise governmentsand carries out educational research,

including practical tests of methodsand materials in villages near Patz-cuaro.

Thus far CREFAL has organized17 courses lasting from 6 to 18 months,

and 18 special short courses, attendedby some 1,500 Latin American educ¬ators. Formerly in fundamental educa¬tion and community development andmore recently in functional literacy,CREFAL's influence has been con¬

siderable. Every educational servicein Latin America operating in thesefields has at least one CREFAL

graduate on its staff.

From its earliest days, Unesco hassought to mobilize efforts and resour¬ces in support of literacy campaignsin the developing countries. Recently,many new ideas and opinions regard¬ing the world problem of illiteracy haveemerged. I would like to summarizesome of them.

There can be no choice between

literacy programmes for adults andprimary education for children sincethey are complementary sectors ofeducation.

Mass illiteracy must be eradicated,principally among young men andwomen, and for this all the methodsand resources that countries can

mobilize are acceptable providing theycontribute to effective literacy teaching.

An operation of this size calls forpriorities. Functional education isseen as an obvious priority since itsaim is to link basic education with

the priority needs of communitiesundergoing economic and social de¬velopment.

CONTINUED NEXT PAGE

27

EDUCATION IN LATIN AMERICA (Continued)

Teaching men and women to think for themselves

Since literacy is only the first stageof adult education, it is valueless

unless it encourages men and womento go on learning. This they could dothrough crash programmes of educa¬tion, through courses teaching theskills and knowledge needed fordevelopment, or through out-of-schooleducation, now offering an increasinglywide choice of subjects and servingas the first step towards tomorrow'ssystems of lifelong education.

To accomplish this will call forsomething more than techniques toreduce illiteracy and to provide under¬privileged men and women with newmeans to earn a living. Nor will it beenough to offer them some ready-made"official" definition of the society towhich they belong.

The aim is not to direct the mass of

50 million illiterates, and an equalnumber of under-educated persons, inLatin America towards what we, as

educators, believe to be the right goal.The real problem is to teach them tothink for themselves, so that they willnot only free themselves from Igno¬rance, but also from all forms of

injustice, and learn to participate asconscious, responsible members ofsociety, a society that does not existas yet because they are still excludedfrom it.

These principles are graduallybecoming accepted. To replaceilliteracy by "functional" literacy as faras possible is now the goal.

But a problem that has been leftdormant for so long cannot be tackledwithout causing some upheavals. Onedifficulty is the pointless disputebetween those who wish to eliminate

illiteracy by concentrating all effortson educating the young and those whobelieve that large sums should beinvested in adult education, whereas

the whole educational system iscreaking and groaning under an in¬tolerable strain.

This disagreement can only besettled by an effective system ofeducational planning; otherwise actionundertaken will be subject to a "tug-of-war" between the different educational

services.

Somehow, a way must be found toreconcile two fundamental truths: that

without universal primary education,illiteracy cannot be eradicated; andthat unless we succeed in changingthe attitude of adults towards the

social role of education, primaryschooling cannot become universal,

In 13 Latin American

countries, less than aquarter of thechildren complete6 years of schooling.These drop-outs soonforget the littlethey learnt duringtheir brief schooldaysand grow up tojoin the ranks ofilliterate adults.

28

since, in an illiterate community,

children with only a minimum of educa¬tion quickly relapse into illiteracy.

This reconciliation calls for a consi¬

derable effort by the poor nations.The cost of setting up effectiveservices of educational planning is anextra burden on their shoulders, which

some of them see as a luxury theycannot afford. But failure to recognizethe need for this effort would mean

the indefinite postponement of asolution to the double problem of massilliteracy and ineffective primary educa¬tion.

Cuba showed, in 1961, how illiteracycan be tackled and overcome providingcertain conditions exist. In Cuba's

case they may be summed up as strongpolitical motivation, the ability tomobilize national efforts for a common

objective, and a problem of relativelysmall dimensions both geographically(Cuba covers 114,500 sq. km.) anddemographically (a 23 per cent rate ofilliteracy when the campaign began).

The example of Cuba has given othercountries food for thought. On theone hand it has shown how the chronic

weaknesses of certain literacy teach¬ing services are aggravated by lackof political and popular support, whichrenders them completely ineffective.On the other, it has demonstrated how

the problem can be overcome if con¬ditions are right.

Certain Latin American governments,convinced that circumstances now

favour a repetition of the Cubansuccess, are speaking of literacy

programmes in terms of national mo¬bilization.

Some governments are carefullyexamining the problems of the function¬al literacy approach, seen as an alter¬native strategy (an attack on literacyon a narrower front but in greaterdepth). What form is it to take andhow is it to be achieved? Who is to

benefit first from the priorities implicit

in a system of functional literacy? Inthree years time when current exper¬imental projects have been evaluated,it will be easier to answer these

questions.

BUT we need not wait so

long. Reports and studies on functionalliteracy are already reaching educators.Once it is accepted that functionalliteracy means literacy revitalized bythe daily needs and interests of menand women, new programmes, methodsand materials will not be lackingthanks not only to educators, but alsoto specialists, technicians and workersin other fields.

Nor do I believe that the choice of

where the functional literacy effortshould be concentrated should be

made exclusively by educators. It isup to the development planners to saywhere expenditure on literacy pro¬grammes will become a worthwhileinvestment.

Indeed, this vital need for co-ordina¬

tion forces us to change our approach

and to prepare literacy programmes indirect collaboration with other sectors

of the development programme. It isclearly more effective to locate theareas in which economic development

is making headway and then to backup this progress with a strong function¬al literacy programme.

The idea that literacy is only a firststep in the system of adult educationhas spread rapidly in Latin America,especially since the Caracas Confe¬rence in 1966. In other words, it is

now accepted that adults have rightof access to all levels of education

through crash programmes coveringliteracy itself, primary education andsecondary education.

It is claimed that adults can complete

these courses in roughly half the timerequired in the normal educationalsystem, and this is borne out by thefact that more and more men and

women are attending evening classesso as to obtain the baccalauréat that

enables them to enter university.

But here, two points should be made.The first concerns the drawback to

providing adult education in a formthat merely parallels the normal educa¬tional system. A good many peoplein cities have personal motivations forwishing to study systematically. Buthow far is it possible to take moreadvantage of this and open furtherurban centres for accelerated second¬

ary education, without providingvocational training for those employedin offices, industry and farming? Nodoubt the development planners will

CONTINUED NEXT PAGE

EDUCATION IN LATIN AMERICA (Continued)

answer this after weighing the needfor employees with a higher level ofeducation and the pattern of supplyand demand in the labour market.

The second point relates to the roleof out-of-school education for the

newly literate person. The urge toaccumulate diplomas should be replac¬ed by a desire for knowledge thatmeets real needs. And the newlyliterate man and woman must be

guaranteed the opportunity and meansto go on learning.

Unfortunately, this is still thought ofin terms of formal education, althoughcontinuity in learning can also be metadequately by a plentiful supply ofbooks and magazines, by radio andtelevision programmes, by club andlibrary activities and through individualstudies not necessarily linked tocomplete programmes of secondary orhigher education.

One might add that the fundamentalaims of adult education are beginningto be discussed in Latin America. But

the problem is much greater than itappears at first sight. It calls forreforms throughout the existing educ¬ational system, conservative in itsattitude to social change, and trauma¬tic in the psychological effects it pro¬duces, particularly in the case of teen¬agers.

If we reduce adult education, includ¬

ing literacy teaching, to a system forcramming minds with a mass of know¬ledge, we shall produce a better-informed society, but not a more per-

(Continued from page 22)

PEACE RESEARCH, THE SCIENCE OF SURVIVAL

a manifestation of animalistic beha¬

viour, and to speak of "beastly" wars,because animals just do not behavethat way.

That brings us to the second basicpoint: that war is inextricably linkedto what in man is peculiarly anduniquely human. As Raymond Aranhas written, in Guerre et Paix entre les

Nations, "The difficulties of peacerelate more to the humanity than theanimality of man . . . Man is the creaturewho is capable of preferring revoltover humiliation and his truth over

life."

Starting from such foundations,peace must necessarily be a far fromsimple matter. There are a numberof different concepts of peace whichmust be taken into account.

There are, for example, the pairedconcepts of negative peace, which issimply a state of non-war, and ofpositive peace, which implies themaking of accommodations betweengroups so they can live together withina mutually accepted system of values.Our immediate concern is necessarily

this negative peace, the mere avoid¬ance of war, and this is indeed, what

largely occupies the statesmen of theworld at this time.

30

Static and dynamic peace.If we try to confine ourselves simplyto banning war as by a prohibitionsuch as that in the United Nations

Charter, what we are really doing isexcluding war as a way of resolvingconflict situations, yet without remov¬ing the conflict situations and withoutproviding any alternatives to war.

This is an impossible situation,because the conflict situations must

become so tense that they necessarilyerupt into violence. But as soon as

we attempt to make some arrangementfor the prevention of open conflict, orarrangements for the peaceable solu¬tions of conflict situations, we are

already within the realm of positivepeace.

Another distinction that may bemade is that between static and

dynamic peace: between peace attainedby the maintenance of a status quo(the kind of peace envisaged in theCovenant of the League of Nations)and peace attained by the adoption ofways and means to ensure peaceablechange and re-adjustment of local,national and international social

structures.

In a dynamic era, it is much moreevident than in a period of stabilitythat peace is only possible if changescan be adjusted to without violence.We are living in an exceptionallydynamic era, owing to the release ofatomic energy and the emancipationof former colonies.

Among the peace research studiesdealing with the various factors ofpeace in its several concepts are thoseanalysing the balance of power, casesof prolonged peaceful relations bet¬ween nations, United Nations peace¬keeping operations, mediation andarbitration, and non-violence as amethod of defence.

Another large group of studies dealswith the problems which have a strongtendency to rend the fragile fabric ofpeace. Two conspicuous examplesare world armament and world poverty,but there are certainly others whichare closely related, such as popula¬tion pressures, intra-national tribal and

ethnic group antagonisms, the shortageof arable land, the inadequate worldfood supply and the economic and

political underdevelopment of newnations.

The urgency of the arms problemcan be seen by making a comparisonwith the animal world. In the animal

world there exists a kind of equilibriumbetween the degree of aggressivenesspeculiar to a given species and theweapons which that species has atits disposal. Aggressive species haveonly weak weapons at their disposal.Non-aggressive species may be heavilyarmed. There probably have beenspecies which combined great aggres¬siveness and a great potential for theinfliction of injury but, if so, thesespecies have died out.

The trouble in the case of man is

that science and technology havemultiplied the effectiveness of his

weapons millions of times, but this

process has not been counterpoisedby an adequate reduction of hisaggressiveness. This is the peaceproblem relating to weapons, of whichthere are too many at the disposal ofthe wealthy countries.

The other major peace problemfollows out of the unequal distributionof material benefits, with too few beingat the disposal of the poor nationswhich represent two-thirds of the

world's population. The distancebetween the rich and the poor iswidening every year. The wideningof the gap is bound to lead in thelong run to revolutions and wars.

Peace research projects which relateto the major problems of peace andto the formulation of the conditions

for peace include those on armscontrol, the influence of industrial-

military complexes, the economic andsocial consequences of disarma¬ment, the social aspects of technicalassistance, and, in fact, all aspects ofeconomic development.

ceptive one. And factual knowledgewithout self-awareness and a mind

open to the world may result in failureto achieve the right objective.

In Latin America, the Brazilian

educator, Paulo Freiré, has rightlystressed the importance of awarenessthat enables men and women to use

their critical judgement and act accord¬ingly; to understand social realities inglobal terms.

Following his research in Brazil,Paulo Freiré worked with the Govern

ment of Chile to develop and make

use of the "psycho-social" educationalmethod. Increasingly welcomed inLatin America, this method has gainedmuch of its impetus from educatorsassociated with the Roman Catholic

Church.

If literacy is to become a drivingforce for the liberation of men and

women, it will only do so by giving the"literate" a clearer appreciation of the

world, and only through changes inthe composition of groups which take

decisions. The day illiteracy is era¬dicated we shall see a change farmore important than the raising of theaverage level of education. On that

day, the structure of decision makingwill be transformed.

I recently attended the inaugurationof a new adult education programme.Hanging above the assembled crowd

was a huge poster. Foreshadowing awind of change in Latin America, itbore these words: "Literacy is revolu¬tion."

About one-third of peace researchinstitutes are working on mathematicalmodels of arms races. Such models,

like all mathematical models of

complex dynamic structures, arenecessarily somewhat simplified butcan sometimes provide useful insights.

Man, society and the in¬ternational system. This area ofpeace research examines the worldas it is, not as it should be if we

want to prevent war. It investigatesthe world as we find it, with the

people in it as they truly are peoplewith their rational and irrational

elements, with their loves and hatreds,

their suspicions and enmities and inparticular with their tendency to distortthe image of their environment untilit fits the picture of the world theyhave made for themselves.

While man as he really is must bethe point of departure in our under¬standing of this combative world, peaceresearch must also deal with the

groups in which man lives, the states,collective bodies with their own

sociological laws, in which the pastplays a dominant part, where traditionoften carries the day and emotionalityplays a predominant role, within whichthought and action are based not onhumanity, but on nationality, in whichconformity is the rule and indepen¬dent thought is looked on with suspi¬cion, in which collective distortions of

reality, especially at critical junctures,have a fatal effect.

Bearing on these matters are peaceresearch investigations into ethno-centrism acceptance of the standards

of one's ethnic group as absolutelyright and appraisal of all other groupsby these standards into race rela

tions, into the sources and compo¬nents of nationalism and into political

ideologies and war propaganda.

Finally this area of peace researchdeals with the relationships and beha¬viour of the world of sovereign states,that underdeveloped community of in¬dependent units organized into what iscalled the international system, inwhich right and justice receive hardlyany consideration when it comes tovital issues, in which military power isso frequently the clinching argument.

Experimental studies on small

groups, put into test situations wherewe see aggression, threat and conflictdeveloping out of group behaviour,particularly out of intergroup rivalries,are providing insights not only intosimilar behaviour between far largersocial groups which are segments ofnational populations, but into similarbehaviour on the international scale.

Peace research projects are prob¬ing into all the many factors involvedin international behaviour and interna¬

tional relations. They examine, forexample, the workings of internationaldiplomacy, the decision-making pro¬cess in foreign relations, the role ofélites in foreign policy decisions, thelegal aspects of peaceful coexistence,World Court practices, the significanceof geographic factors in internationalrelations, the effects of modern war¬

fare on popular ethical standards, andthe reasons for the successful federa¬

tion of peoples of different culturesone example of this being Switzerland.

Other studies are devoted to mak¬

ing a semantic analysis of internatio¬nal disagreements, appraising not onlyhow the opposing parties' differentideas of the meanings of the samewords complicate conflict situations,but also how the intensification of

conflict situations is manifested in a

changing terminology in interchanges,

particularly by an escalation in the useof violent and threatening language.

The relations between states in the

international system are today, as vir¬tually always throughout history, totally"realistic", marked by a total absenceof considerations of morality.

As Machiavelli put in his handbookfor rulers, The Prince, "A ruler cannot

be good in a bad world." A modernpolitical scientist drew the same con¬clusion: "The international environ¬

ment makes it difficult almost to the

point of impossibility for states tobehave in ways that are progressivelymore moral."

It is this pessimistic attitude whichlies at the root of naked powerpolitics. Optimists, however, think thatthe behaviour of an adversary in acontroversy may indeed be favoura¬bly affected by a gradual rapproche¬ment in matters of disarmament bytaking graduated unilateral steps. Thepolicy of the good example, in whichthe risk of a small concession is taken.

In any case, the antagonisms bet¬ween states arise out of conflicts of

interests. In some cases, the conflict

of interests is such that a gainfor one party must mean a loss for theother, as, for instance, in territorial

disputes. Yet in the majority of casesthe situation is different and an agree¬ment between the two or a joint actionwould produce results advantageous toboth. Proportionate mutual disarma¬ment between two states is an exam¬

ple of this, since both states would

maintain the same relative strength,but at far less cost.

Yet it has always been the case thatthe uncertainty which either party feelsas to the possible conduct of theother, instead forces both of them to Q1arm all-out, to engage in an unlimit- *»ed arms race. The fact is that the

conduct of one state is more or less

CONTINUED NEXT PAGE

PEACE RESEARCH (Continued)

32

determined by the conduct of theother, or by its anticipations as regardsthe other's conduct. States are

accustomed to act upon the premisethat other states, striving to promotetheir interests, will behave badlywhich causes them to behave badlythemselves.

The same state of mind applies inmany other aspects of the conflictsbetween nations. States blindly pursuetheir own individual paths as theyreact to each other, including the pathto war, in the belief that they are act¬ing realistically.

I feel that what is basically neces¬sary is a different system of internatio¬nal relations, incorporating new rulesof conduct based on rationality. Thatis the task of international law combin¬

ed with a world-wide organization whichcan keep a proper check on the obser¬vance of the rules for international

behaviour it has laid down, and which

has the power to enforce their ob¬servance.

The means of bringingabout Change. The fourth area ofpeace research includes a considera¬tion of those forces in society whichmight help the world to realize thebasic conditions for peace. One mightthink here of the churches, the arts

and sciences, education, and mass

communication, including the press,radio and television. These studies

deal particularly with such questionsas: "How can a large body of peoplebe reached?"; "What is the role and

significance of protest?"; and "Whatmay be the influence of the idea ofmilitant non-violence?"

To find the answers to such ques¬tions, peace research studies are beingconducted on such general topics asthe effects and effectiveness of non¬

violent protests, the effect of publicopinion on foreign affairs, the role ofmass media in relation to biases affect¬

ing international relations, the In¬fluence of communication channels

and mass media on foreign policyissues, the methods of communicatingthe findings of social science to deci¬sion-makers and to the general public,and how the general public perceivesthe intentions of other nations.

Still other studies evaluate the edu¬

cational programmes of internationalorganizations, the effects of studentinterchanges on national attitudes andthe role of religious movements oninternational relations.

Change in the present attitudes ofthe world towards war will come

slowly. The degree of potential chan¬ge in public opinion has been invest

igated. It appears that a considerablepercentage (40 per cent) of those inter¬rogated in one survey had not alteredtheir views over a period of twentyyears, even in circumstances most fa¬vourable to changes of opinion.

In other cases, the changes ofopinion were very slight. Each gen¬eration has a relatively small radius ofattitudes. Major changes usually onlyfollow out of bitter experience, andtend to coincide more or less with the

advent of a new generation.

In view of the components of thevast problem facing peace research,which are respectively man, the group(state) and the world of states, it isobvious that the science of peace mustnecessarily be a broadly multi-dis¬ciplinary one.

Since most of the topics of peaceresearch fall clearly into the domain ofthe social sciences, the scientific

staffs of peace research institutions

are heavily weighted with specialistsin various social science fields.

Among them are those trained inhistory, economics, international law,international relations, political scien¬ce, and social psychology.

However, specialists in other dis¬

ciplines at the margin of the socialsciences or in some of the physicaland biological sciences are increasing¬ly finding a place on peace researchstaffs. Many staffs now include spe¬cialists in mathematics and statistics,

military science, geography, physics,anthropology and psychology. Almostone-third of all peace research institu¬tions employ philosophers.

Controversy between twoschools. It is regrettable that thenumber of biologists on peace researchstaffs is still relatively low, for theseare the scientists who must appraiseman, to determine how his innate

biological characteristics affect hisbehaviour. Many peace researchersare not sure that the study of man asan aggressive animal falls within thescope of this field.

Co-operation between the discipli¬nes is by no means an easy matter,since the various branches of learn¬

ing have gradually isolated themselves,developing their own apparatus of re¬search, and wish to keep their res¬pective spheres free from the taint ofoutside influence. The process ofintegration has been set in motion, butit is still far from being completed.

While it is fundamental that the

science of peace must aim to becomemore and more an exact science

approaching the natural sciences, it isevident that, as a social science, it

can only make limited utilization ofthe methodologies of the natural scien¬ces.

Peace research methodologies maybe classified, generally speaking, asbeing of two types, and there is acontroversy currently going on abouttheir respective merits. The firstapproach is what we may call the"traditional" or "historical-analytical"approach. The second is the "mod¬

ern" or "mathematical" approach,which turns to statistical methods, ma¬thematical analysis and mathematicalmodel-making in the treatment of thesubject matter. The controversy be¬tween adherents of the two schools

is an extension of the same contro¬

versy as is found in the fields of socio¬logy and international relations.

My conclusion tends to be that bothmethods are indispensable, becausethey are complementary. The exactmethod will often succeed in provingbeyond refutation what the traditionalmethod has suggested. Moreover,figures form an international languagewhich can be understood across the

frontiers of states and ideologies.

Usually peace research starts withina national context. In each country,it bears a national stamp and employsa national rhetoric. Each investigator'soutlook cannot fail to be conditioned

by the system of values prevalent inhis own country, by what Julius Stone(in "Aggression and World Order")called "the national versions of truth

and justice."

The investigator sincerely strives forobjectivity, but he does not escapesubjectivity. This has an advantagein that he speaks the language of hisenvironment and is understood in con¬

sequence. Obviously, this is neces¬sary for any social science whichwishes to have any impact on societyat all.

The drawback is that where diffe¬

rent approaches are made in different

parts of the world, as in western and

eastern Europe, for instance, there areserious problems of mutual compre¬hension. Hence the necessity of con¬tact and of confrontation, for the ultim¬

ate establishment of common pointsof departure and common bases of un¬

derstanding.

In our divided world, we shall be

very long in achieving the commonstarting points, the Greek "topoi",which according to Plato's ideal mightconvince even the gods. But in asituation where, I believe, peace canonly be finally realized as a universalpeace achieved by a universal culture,it is imperative that this commonbasis be established as soon as

possible.

UNICEF

GREETING

CARDS

"Winter" (right) and "Summer" (below)are from the "Four Seasons", a seriesof works by the 16th century painterAbel Grimmer. Reproduced by courtesyof the Musée Royal des Beaux-Artsd'Anvers, Belgium.

Offering twenty nine different designs on its Greeting Cards

for 1970, UNICEF aims to top the record 65,000,000 cardssold last year, which provided over ten per cent of its total

revenue. Among the 1970 cards are five designs by children

aged from 8 to 13, a series of five angels, including a detail

from "John of Patmos" by Hieronymus Bosch, reproductions

of the "Four Seasons" by the 1 6th century artist Abel Grimmer,

and other traditional and modern designs by internationally

famous artists. One box of cards pays for enough antibioticsto cure 12 children of trachoma. Also on sale is the UNICEF

1971 engagement calendar containing fifty-four coloured

reproductions of 8 ft square murals painted by children in

Mexico City for the XlXth Olympiad in 1968. Each painting

is accompanied by a bilingual literary quotation. There is a

choice of five editions : English/French, English/Spanish

English/the Scandinavian languages, English/Portuguese andDutch/French.

"The Three Kings" (above) by 13 year-oldAatos and "Snow Scene" (above right)by 8 year-old Jannis are from a seriesof five UNICEF greeting cards designedby children at the Pestalozzi Children'sVillage, Switzerland.

UNICEF cards and envelopes are sold in boxes of ten for $1.50 (Canada andU.S.A.) and 10 F (France); in the U.K. in packs of 5 for from 4/- to 6/- (accordingto design). In the U.K. a special Family Pack containing 30 cards of previousyears' designs is on sale at the bargain price of £/ . Special edition cards (fiveeach of two designs by Victor Vasarely and ten of one design by Paul Klee) cost$2.50 or 14 F; in the U.K. these cards are sold singly at i/9 each. For orderswrite to U.S.A. Cttee for UNICEF, 331 East 38th St., New York, NY., 10016: Cana¬dian UNICEF Cttee, 737 Church St., Toronto 5, Ontario; U.K. Cttee for UNICEF,123 Regent St., New Gallery Centre, London, W.1.; Comité Français pour la FISEjUNICEF, 35, rue Félicien-David, Paris-16*. Please do not order through Unesco.

Letters to the Editor

VOICES OF EXPERIENCE

Sir,

In answer to the letter "Forum forYouth" (April 1970), how about a"Letters to the Editor" page especiallyinviting comments from aged readers?

In our time, youth from the ends ofthe earth are invited to comment on

everything, everywhere. The aged, withtheir store of experience have the rightonly to sink deeper and deeper intosilence.

No, let us not discriminate againstanyone in the pages of the "UnescoCourier", not even old fogeys.

J. Brooks

New York, U.S.A.

CRISES OF THE UNIVERSITY

Sir,

I was very struck by your articleon "The Five Crises of the University"(June 1970). The deep-rooted causesof the malaise affecting universities areclearly and objectively analysed. I hadnot fully realized the complexities ofthese problems nor their significance.

We all know there are too manystudents, that universities are over¬crowded, but every profession nowdemands a higher educational level anda deeper and broader range of knowl¬edge. And there is also the problemof how to teach all this in the time

available. The syllabus, in fact, is nevercompleted and the student has not nearlyenough time to assimilate the accumu¬lation of knowledge. Yet it seemsimpossible to lengthen studies, if only

UNESCO ASSOCIATED

SCHOOLS' EMBLEM ?

Sir,

The College of Plastic Arts in WarsawIs one of the Unesco Associated Schools

[over 800 schools in 61 countries belong

1st Prize, Ewa Moczorodynska (aged 19)

for economic reasons. The problemsraised by your article seem insoluble atthe present time, yet we can no moreenvisage the collapse of society thanthe halting of evolution itself. Perhapsour only hope for the future lies in theprogress of human intelligence and amore mature attitude in society asa whole.

Sophie Massonmedical student

Lyon, France

THE PLIGHT OF DEAF CHILDREN

Sir,

I should like to echo the sentiments

expressed by R.R. Pavri of Bombay Inhis letter on problems of the deaf (July1970).

My son, who is totally deaf, has beenstruggling for nearly ten years in thescholastic world of those who can hear.

Thanks to his tenacity, he is now inhis third year at university. He oweshis success primarily to himself andalso to a few exceptional persons whohave helped him along the way. Butwhat problems and frustrations he hasencountered.

When will deaf children be groupedtogether In special centres so that theymay follow a normal secondary schooleducation, without having to ask forfavours from headmasters and solicit

the goodwill of teachers, and thus havefull opportunity of going on to highereducation ?

Solange BergerColmar, France

2nd Prize, Dorota Brodowska (aged 17)

to the Unesco Associated Schools sys¬tem which aims at developing a spiritof international understanding and co¬operation through education]. In ourprogramme for the promotion of inter¬national understanding we naturally aimfor high artistic standards in visualinformation media such as our Unesco

Club Wall Gazette, and in the docu¬mentation on our projects (the UnescoClub Chronicle, albums and scapbookson Finland, etc.).

This led us to hold a competition forthe design of an emblem for the Asso¬ciated Schools as a means of creatinginterest in Unesco and of giving ourboys and girls a direct participation inAssociated Schools activities.

We feel it is a particularly apt projectfor International Education Year, 1970

and we are happy to say that thecompetition, in which 120 boys and girlsthroughout the school took part, was agreat success. The entries were of avery high standard, and five prizes wereawarded.

The children have suggested that thewinning entry (reproduced left) shouldbe adopted as the emblem of the Asso¬ciated Schools expressing the commonaim which links the boys and girls ofthese schools throughout the world.

Andrzej Chrupek, headmasterKaryna Baudtke, teacher

College of Plastic Arts, Warsaw, Poland

PROTECTION FOR

THE MIGRANT BIRD

Sir,

I have heard some disturbing news.It seems that the Italian government hasauthorized the trapping with nets ofmigratory birds. I am sure you willunderstand my anxiety, particularly asthis is European Conservation Year. Itcould mean the disappearance of mil¬lions of birds, resulting in considerableharm to agriculture.

Has anyone, In fact, the right tocapture these birds? They are thecommon heritage of many other coun¬tries whose rights and interests are thusbeing encroached upon. Is there nointernational regulation covering thissituation? Birds have as much, if notmore, value than, say, the temples thatwere recently saved by a vigorouspress campaign. Man's genius canalways produce a work of art; it willnever be able to recreate a vanished

species.

O. Bisetti

Lausanne, Switzerland

The Italian law referred to by ourreader came Into force on January 28,J970. It authorizes the netting of birdsafter March 31, 1969, the date limit setby a previous law. In Italy, this lawsparked off an Intense press campaign.With the backing of the Milan daily"Corriere délia Sera", a "nature move¬ment" was launched which already hashundreds of thousands of members.

Mr. Giorgio Ciraolo, Permanent Delegateof Italy to Unesco, has clarified thesituation for the "Unesco Courier".

According to the Italian Ministry for.Agriculture and Forests, the bill draftedby the Italian Parliament has been mod¬ified by the Italian government in orderto restrict the netting of birds as autho¬rized by the previous law. 'As in othercountries", says Mr. Ciraolo, "the nettingof birds in Italy Is now only permittedto provide aviary birds and to giveornithologists the opportunity of study¬ing disappearing species. Draft regu¬lations are now being adopted whichwill ensure that these limitations are

strictly adhered to. There is, there¬fore, no reason to fear serious harm tothe bird population in the future".

Editor.

MODELS FOR MANKIND

Sir,

Having read your article on MarieCurie (October 1967), ") suggest the"Unesco Courier" publish more articleson great men and women who havesacrificed themselves for the welfare of

mankind. Such articles, even if theywere brief, would help readers tounderstand the real purpose of lifeeffort and work.

Reading about the difficulties facedand overcome by Marie Curie and otherscientists would enable young peopleto realize that the victories of science

improve standards of human life andthat its defeats exact no toll of blood

and tears.

Alejandro GharadiMontevideo, Uruguay

NEW YEAR GIFTS?

A binder for

your 1971 collectionNow is the time to order a new binder for

your 1971 collection of the Unesco Cou¬rier. We offer subscribers an attractive and

convenient binder, handsomely producedin red cloth. It holds a year's issues of themagazine and costs only:

20/-stg.$4.0012 F.

Order from Unesco agents listed below

Why not offergift subscriptions

to the

'Unesco Courier'

One year's subscription still only :20/ -stg.

$4.00 (Canada)12 F (France)

Order from Unesco

agents listedbelow

Yours will be a gift remembered each

month by friends and relatives alike

Where to renew your subscriptionand order ofher Unesco publications

Order from any bookseller, or write direct tothe National Distributor in your country. (See liftbelow ; namef of distributora in countries notlisted will be supplied on request.) Payment ismade in the national currency ; the rates quotedare for an annual subscription to THE UNESCOCOURIER in and one language.

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K; THE EDUCATION REVOLUTION

IN LATIN AMERICA

(see article page 24)