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The Reality Gap (2017)UK residual waste management infrastructure: The continuing challenges and requirements

Report Authors: Jeff Rhodes & Mike Thair, Biffa

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In recent years the UK has achieved a great deal in terms of improving its environmental credentials and I believe we should be proud of this. Levels of recycling have improved substantially with the UK now recycling around 45% of household waste and an estimated 59% of commercial and industrial waste. At these levels, the UK is one of the top ten performing countries in Europe. Nearly 14 million tonnes of waste per year is now sent to a multitude of different energy from waste facilities where long term, sustainable energy is produced. The amount of waste we send to landfill has nearly halved over the last 15 years.

We are now at a crossroad as to the future of our environmental strategy. This is made all the more critical and timely by the prospect of a post-Brexit world in which the UK will have the opportunity to shape a bespoke environmental direction and policy for the years ahead.

As detailed in this report, there are major challenges and important realities that need to be accepted and confronted.

Firstly, recycling levels have plateaued in the UK. Without further government intervention through regulation or financial stimulus, further improvements are likely to be minimal. Is this acceptable to us as a nation?

Secondly, there is an infrastructure deficit in the UK for dealing with residual waste. The UK needs to develop more residual waste management infrastructure in the form of new energy from waste facilities. This is vital if we are to convert residual waste effectively into energy from which we can all benefit.

Thirdly, we come to landfill. Landfill has a vital, ongoing role in the waste hierarchy in dealing with those wastes which are non-combustible and non-recyclable. There is no alternative form of disposal for such waste. Current capacity is rapidly diminishing and replacement sites will need to be developed if the UK is not to face a disposal crisis in the next ten years.

We believe the waste industry is more than capable of rising to these challenges, and needs clear and consistent policy direction to enable the necessary capital investments to be made. At Biffa, we relish the challenge and we look forward to working with industry and Government to create an integrated solution which we can all get behind.

Ian Wakelin CEO Biffa

Foreword

About the authors: Jeff Rhodes BSc (Hons) BTP MRTPI, Head of Environment and External Affairs, Biffa Jeffs responsibilities cover environmental development and operational consents, compliance, regulation, policy and sustainability. He has worked in waste management and waste planning for over 30 years and been with Biffa since 2002. Jeff is also Chair of the Planning Working Group at ESA and a long serving member of the West Midlands Resource Technical Advisory Body (RTAB).

Mike Thair BSc (Hons) MBA MCIWM, Group Business Development Director Mikes responsibilities include corporate strategic planning, major infrastructure and Group initiatives. He has worked in the waste sector for 19 years in a variety of roles including operational, commercial and development.

Acknowledgments: We would like to acknowledge the support of Adrian Judge (Tolvik Consulting) in relation to analytical work and peer review.

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Key Findings ..............................................................................................................................................................................4

Introduction ...............................................................................................................................................................................7

Section 1

Reality Gap 1: update on Biffa 2015 residual waste treatment capacity gap forecast ...........................9

Re-cap: 2015 predictions and conclusions .......................................................................................................10

Updating the report ......................................................................................................................................................11

UK residual waste infrastructure development since September 2015 ................................................11

Waste arisings modelling update ...........................................................................................................................13

Reductions from recycling (residual waste forecasting) ..............................................................................14

Residual waste volumes forecasts to 2030 .......................................................................................................17

Updated capacity gap figures (EfW: Reality Gap 1) ......................................................................................17

EfW across Europe: apple and pears.again .................................................................................................19

Section 2

Reality Gap 2: The other component of residual waste management: landfill ........................................ 20

The supporting role of landfill in the waste hierarchy ...................................................................................21

UK landfill gap analysis and forecast (Reality Gap 2) .................................................................................. 22

Section 3

Policy discussion ................................................................................................................................................................. 27

Learning from the past and looking to the future .................................................................................................. 27

UK performance so far: landfill diversion and recycling ............................................................................. 28

Waste policy and targets in the UK: then and now ....................................................................................... 28

Recycling infrastructure ups and downs ........................................................................................................ 29

Policy changes............................................................................................................................................................... 30

The Waste Hierarchy and the Circular Economy ........................................................................................... 33

Circularity within waste management ................................................................................................................. 34

Looking to the future: UK approach..................................................................................................................... 34

Biffa: dealing with the full picture .......................................................................................................................... 36

Conclusions .............................................................................................................................................................................37

Contents

45.00

40.00

35.00

30.00

25.00

20.00

15.00

10.00

5.00

RDF Export Existing EfW Capacity New EfW Capacity Landfill Total Non Recycled Waste Total Combustible Waste

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

UK Residual Waste Management GapIn 2030 there is c.3M tonnes more

waste than landfill capacity to manage it

Specialist wastes/process residues/inerts

Supporting and bridging role for EfW treatment capacity gap

70.00

60.00

50.00

40.00

30.00

20.00

10.00

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Current Recycling Volume Additional Recycling Volume to achieve 54% RDF Export Existing EfW Capacity New EfW Capacity Landfill Total Waste

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Waste Management Method (Mtpa)

62.62

5.93

7.56

10.66

3.10

7.72

27.64

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1. A persistent and substantial shortfall in UK energy from waste capacity exists, currently over 13Mtpa, predicted to reduce to 6Mtpa by 2025 but unlikely to drop thereafter: Since our last report our fundamental conclusions around the waste treatment capacity gap are unchanged. There exists a persistent substantial shortfall in UK energy recovery capacity. If anything the position has become slightly more acute given the difficulties that Advanced Thermal Treatment (ATT) projects have experienced and further evidence that recycling levels are not increasing but overall waste arisings are.

2. The private sector is proving itself able to deal with this capacity gap provided there is clear and consistent long term environmental policy and a realistic, joined-up approach to infrastructure planning: The conditions are right for further facilities to be built and the need is very clear and now urgent. This is evidenced by the recent commencement of construction of certain key facilities, entirely financed and supplied by the private sector. However the challenges of bringing these projects to fruition should not be under-estimated and the role of well financed large scale waste operators in this is key.

3. The UK is running out of landfill void within the next 10 years, with parts of England already having exhausted their capacity. A shift in policy in this area is necessary: Our