the recent development of steel industry in china - · pdf filethe recent development of steel...
TRANSCRIPT
1
中国钢铁工业协会CHINA IRON AND STEEL ASSOCIATION
June. 08-09, 2009 ParisCHINA IRON AND STEEL ASSOCIATION
The Recent Development
of Steel Industry in China
Wu Jingjing
中国钢铁工业协会CHINA IRON AND STEEL ASSOCIATION
Steel Production in 2008 and Q1 2009
Exports and Imports
Market Performance
Conclusion and Prospection
2
中国钢铁工业协会CHINA IRON AND STEEL ASSOCIATION
Output in Q1 2009
Crude steel 127.44 million mt,yoy -0.34%;
Pig iron 122.38 million mt,yoy 1.19%;
Steel products 144.73 million mt,yoy 2.8%;
Output in 2008
Crude steel 500.49 million mt,yoy 1.13 %;
Pig iron 470.67 million mt,yoy -0.16 %;
Steel products 581.77 million mt,yoy 3.56 %;
Part Ⅰ Steel Production
中国钢铁工业协会CHINA IRON AND STEEL ASSOCIATION
Consumption and output of crude steel of 66 economies in 2008
Excluding China
Excluding China
3
中国钢铁工业协会CHINA IRON AND STEEL ASSOCIATION
GDP: China’s GDP grew 9% in 2008 over 2007, the
first one-digit growth rate and 4 percentage points
lower than in 2007, when this number was 13%. This
growth rate is the lowest since 2001.
GDP quarterly growth has been falling for 7 quarters.
Because of financial crisis, GDP growth rate dropped
dramatically to 6.8% in the 4th quarter of 2008.
Changes of the secondary industry
(construction and manufacturing) are
more important for the steel industry.
The GDP growth of the secondary
industry dropped by 5.4%, from
14.7% in 2007 to 9.3% in 2008.
This round of domestic economic downturn has dramatically reduced real estate investment and
resulted in negative growth of industries such as automotives, household appliances and machine-
building in the 4th quarter, hence causing reduced steel consumption.
GDP: China’s economic growth has slowed down. For the first time in 7 years, its
growth rate is one digit.
中国钢铁工业协会CHINA IRON AND STEEL ASSOCIATION
The Situation of Macro Economy in Q1 2009
GDP growth rate dropped dramatically from 13% for 2007 to 9% for 2008.
GDP in Q1 2009: 6574.5 billion RMB, up 6.1% yoy
Investment kept growing in Q1 2009
Fixed assets investment: 2812.9 billion RMB up 28.8% yoy;
Industry added value: up 5.1% yoy ;
Imports and exports -24.9 % yoy (exports -19.7%; imports -30.9%);
CPI :- 0.6% (in March. -1.2%)
4
中国钢铁工业协会CHINA IRON AND STEEL ASSOCIATION
The growth of steel output in China declined sharply in 2008. Crude steel output increased 1.13% compared
with 2008,and it dropped to -0.34% yoy in Q1 2009. The trend is expected to extend into 2009.
Output of crude steel from 2008.01 to 2009.03
unit:mmt
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
08.01
08.02
08.03
08.04
08.05
08.06
08.07
08.08
08.09
08.10
08.11
08.12
09.01
09.02
09.03
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15output
% yoy
Output of steel products from 2008.01 to 2009.03
unit:mmt
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
08.01 08.02 08.03 08.04 08.05 08.06 08.07 08.08 08.09 08.10 08.11 08.12 09.01 09.02 09.03
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15output
% yoy
中国钢铁工业协会CHINA IRON AND STEEL ASSOCIATION
Breakdown of Steel Products Output in Q1 2009 and 2008unit:million mt
Q1 2009 Yoy% 2008 Yoy%
Steel products* 144.73 2.8 581.77 3.6
Plate 31.12 -9.05 133.33 15.19
Hot rolled sheet coil 6.78 4.62 25.94 3.97
Cold rolled sheet &coil 7.31 -9.98 34.03 3.66
Coated 0.89 -7.3 3.39 3.1
Seamless pipe 4.72 9.1 20.17 11
Rebar 26.98 21 97.08 -3.9
Wire rod 20.63 8.2 80.24 1.2
*: including double counting
43.2
49.15
41.4540.38
46.57
43.17
45.66
44.08
41.27
49.7148.34
49.9
45.24
40.5235.8
-0.74
10.64
-11.32
15.09 16.54
16.218.9 16.6
14.5
4.9
-5.7
-11.07
-16.89
-9.830.8
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2008年1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2009年1月 2月 3月consumption
mmt
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
yoy%
( %)
steel products consumption mmt
yoy %
Steel products consumption from 2008.01 to 2009.03
5
中国钢铁工业协会CHINA IRON AND STEEL ASSOCIATION
Part Ⅱ Exports and Imports
Q1 2009
Steel products exports: 5.14 mmt , -54.85% yoy;
Slab exports: 2100 mt , -97.67% yoy
Steel products imports: 钢材进口3.23 mmt , -22.41% yoy;
Slab imports : 钢坯进口0.91 mmt , up 1830% yoy
2008
Steel products exports: 59.18 mmt , - 5.5% yoy ;
Slab exports : 1.28 mmt , - 80% yoy;
Steel products imports: 15.37 mmt , - 8.8% yoy;
Slab imports : 0.24 mmt , up 1.4% yoy
中国钢铁工业协会CHINA IRON AND STEEL ASSOCIATION
Crude steel exports for Q1 were 5,466,700 mt, dropping 6,726,200 mt, or 55.16%. Imports for Q1 were
4,346,900 mt,dropping 133,700 mt,or 2.98%. It seems that future trend is turning toward net import as the
gap between imports and exports has been narrowing very rapidly.
Exports of crude steel in March were 1,774,600 mt. Imports were 1,820,600 mt,exceeding exports by 46,000
mt,which is the first month of net import since April 2006.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
20070
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
20080
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
20090
1 2 3
exports imports
Steel products exports and imports from 2007 .01 to 2009.03 unit:mmt
6
中国钢铁工业协会CHINA IRON AND STEEL ASSOCIATION
Breakdown of Steel Products exports in Q1 2009 unit:mmt
Q1 2009 Q1 2008 yoy yoy±%share in total
%
Total 5.13 11.37 -6.14 -54.85 100
Flat 2.15 5.72 -3.57 -62.36 41.94
Pipe and tube 1.74 1.96 -0.22 -11.32 33.91
Wire rod 0.46 2.18 -1.72 -78.88 8.97
Section 0.16 0.77 -0.61 -79.11 3.11
Railway 0.15 0.10 +0.04 +41.1 2.84
Others 0.47 0.63 -0.16 -24.83 9.23
中国钢铁工业协会CHINA IRON AND STEEL ASSOCIATION
Breakdown of steel products exports by regions in Q1 2009 unit:mmt
Q1 2009 Q1 2008 yoy yoy±%share in total
%
Total 5.13 11.37 -6.24 -54.85 100
Korea 1.15 3.36 -2.21 -65.75 22.46
Asean 0.69 1.29 -0.60 -46.75 13.46
Middle east 0.63 0.60 +0.03 +4.46 12.4
EU27 0.46 1.27 -0.81 -63.6 9.02
USA 0.46 1.02 -0.56 -55.03 8.95
Ohers 1.73 3.8 -2.26 -59.62 33.71
The shrinking international demand and sliding international price of steel products
will lead to further price cut of steel exports of China.
7
中国钢铁工业协会CHINA IRON AND STEEL ASSOCIATION
Breakdown of steel products imports in Q1 2009 unit:mmt
Q1 2009 Q1 2008 yoy yoy±%share in total
%
Total 3.23 4.16 -0.93 -22.41 100
Flat 2.75 3.47 -0.72 -20.83 85.23
Wire rod 0.13 0.24 -0.10 -44.19 4.3
Pipe and tube 0.18 0.27 -0.09 -34.2 5.59
Section 0.06 0.07 -0.01 -13.11 2.13
Railway 0.03 0.01 +0.02 +103.1 1.22
Others 0.04 0.06 -0.01 -23.26 1.53
中国钢铁工业协会CHINA IRON AND STEEL ASSOCIATION
Breakdown of steel products imports in Q1 2009 unit:mmt
Q1 2009 Q1 2008 yoy yoy±%share in total
%
Total 323.16 416.5 -93.34 -22.41 100
Japan 108.04 176.34 -68.3 -38.73 33.43
Korea 88.86 99.48 -10.62 -10.68 27.5
Chinese Taiwan 56.74 74.9 -18.16 -24.25 17.56
Kazakhstan 19.09 5.86 +13.23 +2.26倍 5.91
EU 27 17.73 31.81 -14.08 -44.26 5.49
Russia 10.27 3.34 +6.93 +2.07倍 3.18
其他others 22.33 24.77 -2.44 -9.85 6.91
8
中国钢铁工业协会CHINA IRON AND STEEL ASSOCIATION
In Q1 2009 , the profits of CISA members were -3.3 billion RMB.
In 2008 , combined profits of CISA’s 71 members was 84.6 billion RMB, down 43.32% yoy.
In Oct. 2008, CISA’s 71 members incurred a net loss of 5.8 billion RMB, the first monthly loss
in six years.
The price in both international and domestic markets kept decreasing from July 2008 to April
2009
Part Ⅲ Performance of Steel Market
中国钢铁工业协会CHINA IRON AND STEEL ASSOCIATION
By the end of H1 2008, both international and domestic price indices kept increasing month by month and reached record highs
in recent years. However, with the unfolding of the financial crisis, the price dropped sharply .
Composite Price Index in International and Domestic Markets
118.99126.31
142.31
156.86160.99
152.22143.94
108.59102.30 103.30
107.69103.69
97.59 95.56
148.5157.1160.7
168.3172.4172.8168.5167.8170.4171.7172.4176.2
188.9200.9
221.9
237
268
282 287.7284.8
269.5
240.3
183
155.2158.7152.6141.2
126.5
109.88 111.16 112.93 115.92125.12
135.17
146.48
110.71
161.47
113.34109.80 110.31115.14
108.57
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
200701 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10
月11月
12月
200801 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10
月11月
12月
200901 2月 3月 4月
domestic
international
The global financial crisis triggered by the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the US has started to affect the real economy.
Consumption in the international market became sluggish and demand shrank significantly.
China’s was also hit severely, with decelerated economic growth and reduced demand for steel.
This round of domestic economic downturn has dramatically reduced real estate investment and resulted in negative
growth of industries such as automotives, household appliances and machine-building in the 4th quarter, hence causing
reduced steel consumption
9
中国钢铁工业协会CHINA IRON AND STEEL ASSOCIATION
Flat products Price Index in International and Domestic Markets
119.94127.74
144
155.94161.09
153.01143.98
106.74100.41101.69
106.5 102.6997.01 94.57
173.1183.3
208221.2
250.6266.2272.4263.5
249.8
222.1
166.1
145.6141.8139.3128.4
113.7
115.13 118.04114.84116.59 118.21
161.31
115.75
147.11136.67
125.48118.46116.58117.38116.65
162.1 162.4160.0159.6157.8157.5159.1160.8
145.5
156.4152.4
165.7
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
2007年1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10
月11月
12月
2008年1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10
月11月
12月
2009年1月 2月 3月 4月
domestic
international
122.56130.79
145.88164.75 162.01
150.53 143.68
110.47 107.62 108.54 111.96 107.65 99.47 99.56
220.7236.4
251268.9
302.9313.7 318.5 327.6
309.2
276.8
216.8
174.5192.8
179.2167.1
152.3
95.70 98.10108.52 114.88
131.89 139.1151.06
102.53
163.95
104.7095.98 103.76113.09
94.41
185.8
166.7169.2
154.3
183.6 187.4 188.3195.8 195.8 197.3 203.8
194.4
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2007年1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2008年1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2009年1月 2月 3月 4月
domestic international
Long products Price Index in International and Domestic Markets
中国钢铁工业协会CHINA IRON AND STEEL ASSOCIATION
Growth of upstream industries has slowed down and domestic apparent steel
consumption dropped significantly.
1. Housing Industry
10
中国钢铁工业协会CHINA IRON AND STEEL ASSOCIATION
Growth of upstream industries has slowed down and domestic apparent
steel consumption dropped significantly.
2. Automotives
中国钢铁工业协会CHINA IRON AND STEEL ASSOCIATION
Growth of upstream industries has slowed down and
domestic apparent steel consumption dropped
significantly.
3. Household Appliances
11
中国钢铁工业协会CHINA IRON AND STEEL ASSOCIATION
Growth of upstream industries has slowed down and domestic
apparent steel consumption dropped significantly.
4. Machine-building
中国钢铁工业协会CHINA IRON AND STEEL ASSOCIATION
Part Ⅳ Conclusions and Prospects
The recession of the global economy may well last for years.
China’s economic growth will slowed down . The intensity and length of this round of adjustment will
exceed the past.
China will implement proactive fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate domestic consumption and
growth. (4000 billion RMB investment package and plan for industrial adjustment and revitalization)
Recovery of global economy will depend on the stimulus policies and measures introduced by many
governments. The effects will be seen in the H2 2009 .
12
中国钢铁工业协会CHINA IRON AND STEEL ASSOCIATION
Crisis is the Nature of the Economy
23
中国钢铁工业协会CHINA IRON AND STEEL ASSOCIATION
The decision made by the 37th Executive Meeting of the State
Council to formulate plans for industrial adjustment and
revitalization
Steel industry
Auto industry Textile industry
Light industry
Shipbuilding
industry
Equipment
manufacturing
Petrochemical
industry
Non-ferrous
metal
Electronic
information
Logistics
industry
Five industries consume about 33% of steel.
2.12.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
13
中国钢铁工业协会CHINA IRON AND STEEL ASSOCIATION
Short-term prospects for China’s steel industry
In 2009, crude steel output: around 460 mmt (the forcast in Dec.2008 was 470-500 mmt)
crude steel consumption : 430-470 mmt (depending on the growth of GDP and FAI)
The steel exports of china will decrease significantly in 2009.
Both domestic and international steel market will remain sluggish in the short term . Demand needs several quarters to resume; stimulus measures need time to show effects; fuel and raw materials price continues to drop, providing little support for the price of steel products.
The fundamental way to ensure growth is to expand domestic demand. The stimulus package will boost domestic steel demand in an obvious manner. China’s steel industry will still be in a very tough situation in the first half of 2009.
In the long run, China is still in the process of industrialization, urbanization and structural upgrade. A steady growth in the domestic demand for steel will remain unchanged. We are confident in the long-term stability of China’s steel market.
中国钢铁工业协会CHINA IRON AND STEEL ASSOCIATION
Thanks