the recession continues as the multi-year bear market renews

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  • 8/9/2019 The Recession Continues as the Multi-Year Bear Market Renews

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    Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Princeton, NJ. ValuEngine

    covers over 5,000 stocks every day.

    A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's detailed research, stock picks,and commentary can be found HERE.

    July 1, 2010 The Recession Cont inues as t he Mul t i -Year Bear Mark et Renew s

    The decline in the 10-Year Treasury yield should end between 2.999 and 2.813. There is limited ifany additional gains for Gold relative to its June 21st all time high at $1266.5 . Crude has beenstruggling to sustain gains above my annual pivot at $77.05. Further downside for the euroshould be limited to my new quarterly support at 1.1424. For the Dow, new quarterly support at7,812 and new semiannual resistance at 10,558 re-iterated my Dow 8,500 before 11,500 marketcall. Troublesome foreclosure data, mortgage applications and while homebuyers withoutextension of the closing date for homebuyers who qualified for tax credits, as Congress wastestime and money on a costly and worthless Financial Regulation Bill.

    US Treasury Yields The 10-Year yield traded as low as 2.902 into Thursday morning as the dailychart shows MOJO that indicates that the decline in yields is overdone. New semiannual and quarterlysupports are 3.479 and 3.486 with annual and daily pivots at 2.999 and 2.927, and weekly, annual,quarterly and semiannual resistances at 2.843, 2.813, 2.495 and 2.249. Yields should stop their

    decline between 2.999 and 2.813.

    Chart Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

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    Comex Gold New quarterly support is $1140.9 with annual support at $1115.2. My new semiannualpivot is $1218.7 with daily, semiannual, weekly and monthly resistances at $1259.0, $1260.8, $1275.9and $1279.3. The all time high of $1266.5 set on June 21stwas a test of Junes monthlyresistance and the $1260.8 to $1279.3 should be a significant top for gold. The 21-day simplemoving average is nearby support at $1236.1.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Nymex Crude Oil Weekly and quarterly supports are $63.22 and $56.63 with daily and annual pivotsat $76.44 and $77.05, and new monthly and semiannual resistances at $79.36 and $83.94, whichshould limit the upside as the global economy slows down.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

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    The Euro New quarterly support is 1.1424 with a new monthly pivot at 1.2035 and monthly resistanceat 1.2670. The downside for the euro should be limited to 1.1424.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Daily Dow:Weekly support is 9,483 with a daily pivot at 9,747, the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day simplemoving averages at 10,165, 10,447 and 10,361, and my annual pivot at 10,379. MOJO is declining with

    new semiannual and monthly resistances at 10,558 and 10,891 after my annual resistance at 11,235was tested at the April 26th high at 11,258, which marked the end of the bear market rally that began inMarch 2009. We are in the second leg of the multi-year bear market that began in October 2007.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

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    throughout this process. This is a strong bill. It will provide essential protections for consumers andinvestors and help make sure the financial system meets the credit needs of Main Street America. Withaction by the Senate, we will be able to turn our attention to putting these protections in place."

    House Speaker Nancy Pelosi declared;"No longer again will recklessness on Wall Street causejoblessness on Main Street. No longer will the risky behavior of the few threaten the financial stability ofour families, our businesses and our economy as a whole."

    How can you prevent financial problems to occur again when the current problems are far fromover? Unemployment remains high at 9.7% when it was 4.6% when the crisis began. Banks onMain Street cant lend due to overexposures to real estate loans written between 2004 and 2006.How can FinReg work when the same regulators are being asked to administer new regulations.It was the US Treasury, Federal Reserve and FDIC that did not see the crisis coming and thenignored their own joint regulatory guidelines with regard to exposures to real estate lending.

    Thats todays Four in Four. Have a great day.

    Richard SuttmeierChief Market Strategistwww.ValuEngine.com(800) 381-5576

    As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. Ihave daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters aswell as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as theValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. I hope that you will go to www.ValuEngine.com and review some of the sampleissues of my research.

    I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.