the rechargeable battery market and main trends 2011-2020 · batteries 2015 october 6, 2015 nice,...

The Rechargeable

Battery Market and

Main Trends 2014-2025

Director, AVICENNE ENERGY

Christophe PILLOT

BATTERIES 2015

Nice, France,

October 6, 2015

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Presentation Outline • The rechargeable battery market in 2014 • The Li-ion battery value chain • Li-ion battery material market • Forecasts & conclusions


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The Rechargeable Battery Market and


BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015

Nice, FRANCE

AGENDA

The market in 2014 by technology, applications & battery suppliers

Li-ion battery value chain Raw materials market

Supplier / customer relationship

Raw material cost

New entrants strategy

Raw material road map 2000-2030

xEV market in 2014

xEV forecasts up to 2025

Could Lithium ion replace lead acid for industrial applications?

Rechargeable battery market forecasts up to 2025

2


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Nice, FRANCE

AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO

HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS

HEV powered by Lithium ion battery

forecasts from 2008 to 2014

EV sold, in million units, worldwide,

2010 - 2020

0

1

2

3

4

5

2010 2015 2020

Nu

mb

er o

f EV

so

ld w

orl

dw

ide

( M

illio

n)

Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011

3

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mill

ion

HEV

po

we

red

by

LIB

IIT 2007

IIT 2008

IIT 2009

IIT 2010

AVICENNE 2007

REALITY

AAB (2012)

AVICENNE 2007-2012

ROLAND BERGER (2011)

IIT (MARCH 2010)


DEUTSCHE BANK (2012)

IIT (MARCH 2011)


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4

THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY

DYNAMIC

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2015

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2000 2014

Mill

ion

Un

its

/ ye

ar

Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million)

Li-ion

NiMH

170 M Portable

PCs

230 M Tablets

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2014

Mill

ion

Un

its/

Ye

ar

Portable PC sold per Year (Million)

Li-ion

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2000 2014

Ton

s o

f ca

tho

de

/ Ye

ar

Tons of Li-ion Cathode per year

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

2000 2014

$/W

h

Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh)


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THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET

1990-2015

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

1990 2000 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015

MW

h

Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

5

2015: Estimations Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2015

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry

investments


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0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

19

90

20

00

20

10

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

MW

h


Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

19

90

20

00

20

10

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

MW

h


1990-2015

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)

6

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2015

2015: Estimations


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1990-2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

19

90

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

13

20

14

20

15

Bill

ion

US

$


Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

60 BILLION US$ in 2014 – Pack level1

5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (1990-2014)

7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

13

20

14

20

15

Bill

ion

US$

OTHERS

AUTOMOTIVE

INDUSTRIAL

E-BIKES

POWER TOOLS

PORTABLE

SLI


SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc…

PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, Camera, …), data collection & handy terminals,

POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools

INDUSTRIAL

• MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others

• STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, Others (Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator Starting, Control & Switchgear,

AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EV

OTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen concentrators

1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included

2015: Estimations


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IN 2014: US $ 60 BILLION

Portable

Automotive

SLI

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000Others

SLI

Automotive

Portable

Other Applications

Marine

Medical devices

Wheelchair

Medical Cart

Other Stationary

Seismic

ESS

Other Stand-by

UPS

Telecom

Other Motive

Forklift

Power Tools

E-Bikes

8

Battery market in 2014 (M$)

1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included


0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

Lead Acid LIB

Other Applications

Marine

Medical devices

Wheelchair

Medical Cart

Other Stationary

Seismic

ESS

Other Stand-by

UPS

Telecom

Other Motive

Forklift

Power Tools

E-Bikes

US $ 20

Billion for

“other”

applications


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WORLDWIDE BATTERY SALES BY

CHEMISTRY, UNITS, 1995-2015

The worldwide rechargeable battery

market, Million cells, 1995-2015

Which cell are we talking about?

9

Front Edge Technology, Inc

2015: estimation data

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

199

5

199

7

199

9

200

1

200

3

200

5

200

7

200

9

201

1

201

3

201

5

Mill

ion

ce

lls

NiCd NiMH Li-ion

GS Yuasa International / Lithium Energy Japan


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CHEMISTRY, MWH, 1995-2015

-

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

MW

h

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCd

The worldwide rechargeable battery market, in volume,

MWh, 1995-2015

2015: estimation data

2004-2014(CAGR): +17%

NiCd: -2% per year

NiMH: +6 per year

Li-ion: +22% per year

10


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CHEMISTRY, M$, 1995-2015

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

M$

Li-ion (2) -

Li-ion 375 1325 1755 2 171

NiMH 992 870 907 953

NiCd 2066 1881 1750 1 709

The worldwide rechargeable battery market, in value, M$,

1995-2015 (1)

(1) Cell level

(2) New Lithium ion battery market detected: e-bus, x-ev, others in China

2004 – 2014 CAGR):+12%

NiCd: -6% per year

NiMH: + 9% per year

Li-ion: +14% per year

11


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EACH BATTERY TECHNOLOGY HAS ITS

SPECIFIC ABSOLUTE ADVANTAGES

12

Lead Acid

Nickel Cadmium NiCd

Nickel Metal Hydride NiMH Conventional Laminate

Lithium-Ion

...On

Advantage of ...

• Gravimetric energy density • Volumetric energy density • Operating temperature

range • Self discharge rate • Reliability (progressive

extinction)

• Gravimetric energy density

• Volumetric energy density • Self discharge rate

• Gravimetric energy density • Volumetric energy density • Voltage output • Self discharge rate

• Higher cyclability • Voltage output • Price


• Volumetric energy density

• Gravimetric energy density • Volumetric energy density • Voltage output • Self discharge rate

• Higher cyclability • Voltage output • Price

• Operating temperature range

• Higher cyclability • Self discharge rate • Price


range • Higher cyclability • Voltage output • Self discharge rate

• Gravimetric energy density • Volumetric energy density • Self discharge rate • Design characteristics

• Gravimetric energy density • Volumetric energy density • Self discharge rate • Design characteristics


range • Self discharge rate • Design characteristics

Lead Acid

Nickel Cadmium NiCd

Nickel Metal Hydride NiMH

• Higher cyclability • Price • Safety • Recyclability


• Higher cyclability • Price • Safety • Recyclability

• Price • Safety • Discharge rate • Recyclability

• Higher cyclability • Price



• Volumetric energy density • Higher cyclability • Price

• Gravimetric energy density • Volumetric energy density

(potentially) • Design characteristics • Safety • Price


• Higher cyclability

Conventional

Laminate

Lith

ium

-Io

n


• Volumetric energy density • Self discharge rate • Voltage output • Design characteristics



• Price

• Volumetric energy density

• Gravimetric energy density • Volumetric energy density • Self discharge rate • Voltage output

Absolute advantages


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JAPANESE, CHINESE & KOREAN

MARKET SHARE

Japanese market share (value) decreasing: from 82 % of the market

in 2001 to < 40% in 2014

13

(1) Excluding lead acid batteries

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%1

99

41

99

51

99

61

99

71

99

81

99

92

00

02

00

12

00

22

00

32

00

42

00

52

00

62

00

72

00

82

00

92

01

02

01

12

01

22

01

32

01

42

01

5

Rechargeable battery(1) market by country

Japan

Korea

China

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

LIB market by country

Japan

Korea

China


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NICD BATTERY: MARKET SHARE IN 2014

IN VOLUME WORLDWIDE

SANYO-PANASONIC

39%

SAFT 7%

GOLD PEAK 4%

BYD 35%

OTHERS 15%

The worldwide NiCd battery

market Company market share

in 2014 in volume – 920 M cells

SANYO-PANASONIC is leading

the market

14

Companies Million cells SANYO-PANASONIC 350 SAFT 60 GOLD PEAK 40 BYD 320 OTHERS 150

TOTAL 910

Fumio Ohtsubo (Panasonic) & Seiichiro Sano (Sanyo) January 8th, 2012

SANYO-PANASONIC

51%

SAFT 10%

GOLD PEAK 5%

BYD 23%

OTHERS 11%

In volume

In value


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NICD IN 2014

MAIN APPLICATION: POWER TOOLS

920 M cells – 2450 MWh

600 M$1

CAGR 2004/2014

-2% per year in volume

-6% per year in value

15

All the applications are decreasing

Competition with NiMH & Li-ion

New application (?)

Energy storage

ABB Inc., Fairbanks, Alaska, 27 MW/15 minutes

Note: 1 Portable applications, power tools and emergency lighting only:

industrial application as well as energy storage are excluded

Power Tools 72%

Security lighting

10% Others 18%

NiCd by application worldwide, % in value, 2014


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NIMH BATTERY: MARKET SHARE IN

2014 WORLDWIDE

8%

24%

16%

4% 11%

17%

20%

The worldwide NiMH battery


in 2014 in volume – 1200 M cells

16 Note: Market in value at the cell level – 1,9 B$ at the pack level Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses

Note: 1 PEVE: Primearth EV Energy (PEVE) The company was known as Panasonic EV Energy Co until 2 June 2010. The company was formed in 1996 as a joint venture between Toyota and Panasonic, with Panasonic holding 60% of the capital. Panasonic sold 40.5% of the company to Toyota. PEVE is the supplier of the NiMH battery packs for Toyota’s hybrids, as well as for Honda (Civic hybrid and first generation Insight) hybrids. The company also provides the NiMH prismatic battery modules for the General Motors

² Japan's Sanyo Electric Co sold part of its battery operations to FDK Corp a Fujitsu Ltd unit, for 6.4 billion yen ($70 million) to satisfy antitrust regulators ahead of its planned takeover by Panasonic Corp at the end of 2009.

OTHERS

1

61%

4%

13%

8%

5%

9%

OTHERS

1

The worldwide NiMH battery

market Company market share in

2014 in value – 1670 M$


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NIMH IN 2014

MAIN APPLICATION: HYBRID VEHICLES

1 165 M cells – 3 700 MWh

1.65 B$(1)

CAGR 2004/2014

+9% per year in Volume

+8% per year in value

17

(1) Cell based market – 1,9 B$ at the pack level

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2 00020

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

15

% o

f H

EV b

atte

ry in

NIM

H r

even

ues

M$

NiMH battery market worldwide in

value % for HEV application

Others HEV % of HEV in NiMH sales

Cordless Phones

7% Retail: RC cars,Toys,

Household 15%

HEV 77%

Others 2%

NiMH battery by applications, worldwide, % in value, 2014


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LI-ION BATTERY: MARKET SHARE IN

2014 WORLDWIDE

The worldwide Li-ion battery


in 2014 in volume: 5400 M cells

18

(1) Cell level. LIB battery pack market: >16,7 B$ Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2015

The worldwide Li-ion battery


in 2014 in value(1) – 13,6 B$

22%

17%

17%

9%

6%

7%

4%

4%

3%

2% 9% 18%

18%

18% 7%

6%

6%

4%

5%

2%

3%

4%

2% 7%

Others

Others


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MAJOR LI-ION MANUFACTURERS

YEARLY PRODUCTION 2001-2014

Samsung SDI & LG Chem are growing very fast

Panasonic acquired Sanyo in Dec 2009


19

SONY

Sanyo-Panasonic

MAXELL

BYD

LG Chem

SDI

LISHEN BAK

ATL

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mill

ion

cel

ls /

Yea

r


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CYLINDRICAL LI-ION BATTERY

Cylindrical LIB market Company

market share in 2014 in volume:

1960 Million cells (+6%)

SANYO-PANASONIC, SDI & LG

will share the market

20 Note: 1 ppm: piece per minutes Source: Interviews with LG, SAMSUNG, SANYO-PANASONIC

Key success factor • Production speed (-> cost)

• Performances

• Customer (Portable PCs) access

LG

SDI

PANASONIC

0 500 1000 1500Ah / min

Production Speed: 18650 – 2,8Ah cells

400 ppm

400 ppm

350 ppm1

-

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mill

ion

ce

lls

18650 cells for Portable PC & others 18650 for TESLA

Assumptions: TESLA sold 35 kEV in 2014, 55 kEV in 2015 and 100 kEV in 2016

Cylindrical cells (M) by mfg.

-

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

PANASONIC-SANYO PANASONIC - TESLA Sony SDI LG Others

38%

26%

17%

8%

11%

Others

In 2014, TESLA demand represent roughly 15% of the Cylindrical cells demand


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PRISMATIC LI-ION BATTERY

Prismatic LIB market Company

market share in 2014 in volume:

1120 Million cells (-10%)

Prismatic cells (M) by Mfg. :

SAMSUNG is leading

21


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Panasonic-Sanyo SDI LG BYD LISHEN BAK OTHERS

29%

9%

24%

14%

6%

8%

7% 3%

Others


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LI-LAMINATE BATTERY

Laminate battery market

Company market share in 2014

in volume: 2 080 Million cells

(+15%)

Pouch cells (M) by Mfg. SONY,

ATL and SAMSUNG are leading

this market

22


15%

17%

14%

13%

9%

5%

5%

2%

20%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Panasonic-Sanyo Sony SDI

LG BYD LISHEN

BAK ATL Others


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LI-ION IN 2014 MAIN APPLICATIONS

23

(1) 2015 estimation data

(2) Cell level

5 250 M cells – 50 000 MWh

13 600 M$ (2)

CAGR 2004/2014

+20 % per year in Volume


-

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 00020

00

200

120

02

200

320

0420

05

200

620

07

200

820

09

201

020

11

201

220

13

201

420

15

M W

h

Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2015 (1)

Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others

-

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

M W

h

Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2015

Tablets Other electronics Outils

E-bikes 12 volts SLI xEV

EV & PHEV China Industrial Medical deices

E-bus


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LI-ION IN 2014 MAIN APPLICATIONS

CAGR 2004/2014

+20 % per year in Volume


24

(1) 2015: Avicenne Forecasts

(2) Cell level

-

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

20 000

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

M $

Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2015 (1)

Cellular PhonesPortable PCs

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

M $

Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2015 (1)

Automotives TabletsPower tools CamcordersDigital camera MP3Games E-BikesOthers E-bus, xEV, … China (3)

5 250 M cells – 50 000 MWh

13 600 M$ (2)

3) New market detected in China – 30 000 E-bus sold in 2014


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LIB MAIN APPLICATIONS

Phones 17%

Portable PC 66%

Portable Electronics

17%

Li-ion battery market worldwide by

application in volume, 2000

(< 2 GWh)

Li-ion battery market worldwide by

application in volume, 2014

(50 GWh)

25

Phones 19%

PCs 19%

Portable Electronics

22% Power tools 4%

E-bikes 4%

AUTO 20%

Industrial, ESS, non portable

12%

From Portable devices to Automotive & industrial batteries


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26

CELLULAR PHONES MARKET

> 1980 M LIB CELLS IN 2014

NOKIA

MOTOROLA

SAMSUNG

APPLE

0

100

200

300

400

500

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

M c

ellu

lar

ph

on

es/

year

NOKIA MOTOROLA SAMSUNG LG

APPLE RIM ZTE SONY

+1800 M cell phones sold in

2013 (+7% CAGR)

Samsung Galaxy & I-phone

change the game

2014 1900 M Phones

2012 1630 M Phones

Pris. 50%

Lam. 50%

LIB cell format (Volume) 2014

Nokia 11%

Samsung 22%

LG 5%

RIM 2%

APPLE 10%

ZTE 3%

Others 39%

Huawei 4%

Xiaomi 4%

Nokia 28%

Motorola 3%

Sony-Ericsson

2%

Samsung 21%

LG 6%

APPLE 5%

RIM 3%

ZTE 4%

Others 28%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Standard Smartphones

(2012/2014 growth) + 2%

-37%

+40%

170%

+200%

+55%


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CELLULAR PHONES/LIB SUPPLIERS

RELATIONSHIPS

2014 Cellular Phone makers /

battery suppliers relation

27

Smartphones ie laminate LIB

increasing

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

iPod

iPhone

IPad

Mac

ATL SDI LG SONY LISHEN

APPLE needs in 2014

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Nokia

Samsung

LG Chem

APPLE

ZTE

Panasonic Sony SDI LGC Lishen ATL Others

-

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2 000

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

M c

ells

/ Y

ear

Battery market for cellular phones worldwide, 2000-2014, in Volume

(M cells)

LIB La.

LIB Pr.

NiMH

200

110

175

M cells


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28

PORTABLE PC MARKET

990 M LIB CELLS IN 2014

173 M portable PCs sold

2013/2014: -4%

Market outlook 2014

Note: Excluding Tablets

Uncertain macro & weakness in both consumer & commercial growth No sign for end-customer demand recovery Decrease due to cannibalization by tablets Small overall decrease only thanks to Emerging market growth

Increase of Ultra-thin Portable

PCs

Cyl. 80%

Pris. 1%

Lam. 19%


-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0

50

100

150

200

250

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

M P

ort

able

PC

/ye

ar

Dell HP Toshiba

Acer Lenovo Asus

APPLE Others Growth/years0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

% o

f P

ort

able

PC

so

ld

16in

15in

14in

13in

11-12in

Netbook


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29

TABLET MARKET

> 550 M CELLS IN 2014

0

50

100

150

200

250M

tab

lets

/ye

ar

Others

Samsung

Apple

Tablets sold (Million)

Apple leadership

Market Outlook 2014

Lower growth (7% only).

Growth driven by mature market (77%)

consumer market (95%)

Apple (27%), Samsung (17%), Asus (5%), Acer, Lenovo, Amazon are the key competitors Source: Gartner, IDC, Display search – 2013: AVICENNE Estimation

Others 2014: Asus 11,5 M, Lenovo 11,2 M, Amazon 3,3 M…

ASP tablets drop

From $636 in Q4 2010 to $335 in Q4 2013: - 47% in 36 months

636 607 616 550 522 508 500 480 449

405 370 345 335

200

300

400

500

600

700

Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013

Ave

rage

Pri

ce (

US

$)

iPad Non i-Pad Total

Lam. 100%



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Nice, FRANCE

30

POWER TOOL MARKET

LIB DEMAND IS GROWING

0

20

40

60

80

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Power Tools (Million/year)

Power tools market is growing Power tools suppliers

TTI 13% B&D

14%

Bosch 15% Makita

12% Sumec

9%

Metabo 7%

OTHERS 30%

Power tools maker market share (2013)

Others: Jingding (3.6 M), Panasonic (0.5 M), Hitachi (2.4 M), Hilti (2M)…

Power tools maker battery choice

0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0

Bosch

B&D

TTI

Makita

Sumec

Metabo

Jingding

HITACHI

HILTI

PANASONIC

M power tools

NiCd

NiMH

Li-ion

LIB penetration in power tools

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

% of power tools equiped with LIB

Cyl.; 100%



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31

LIB BATTERY SHORT TERM TRENDS

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

> 3Ah

2,8Ah

2.6Ah

2.4Ah

2.2Ah

2.0Ah

1.8Ah

<=1.6Ah

18650 battery capacity* Cellular phones battery capacity

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

> 1800 mAh

1600 mAh

1400 mAh

1200 mAh

1000 mAh

800 mAh

< 800 mAh

*1C rate or laptop type 18650 cells

Cylindrical/Prismatic/Laminates

in 2013

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Cylindrical Prismatic Laminates

Others

TESLA

Power Tools

Tablets

Portable PCs

Cellular

Cylindrical/Prismatic/Laminates

-

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

M c

ells

/ye

ar

Li-ion Cyl Li-ion PrLaminate Li-ion Cyl excl Tesla

Li-ion cylindrical: “Tesla impact”: 150 M cells in 2013, 300M in 2014, 600 M in 2015


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CYLINDRICAL LIB 18650 ROADMAP

(CAPACITY + POWER)

32

Source :


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Nice, FRANCE

33

BATTERY PRICE IS DECREASING

DRASTICALLY

In 10 Years 80% price decreasing

despite a fluctuating Co price

Average LIB cell price ($/Wh)

Source: UMICORE, march 2011

18650 oversupply ratio is

decreasing thanks to TESLA

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

-

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

Ove

r su

pp

ly R

atio

M c

ells

/Y

ear

Standard Demand TESLA

Production Capacity Oversupply ratio

0,00

0,20

0,40

0,60

0,80

1,00

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Cylindrical Prismatic Laminate

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1Q

09

2Q

09

3Q

09

4Q

09

1Q

10

2Q

10

3Q

10

4Q

10

1Q

11

2Q

11

3Q

11

4Q

11

M c

ells

/m

on

th

BAK

ATL

Lishen

E-One

LG

SDI

MAXELL

SONY

PANASONIC

SANYO

Production capacity 2009/2011:

from 150 to 250 M cells/month

Note- Q4 2013: Cylindrical: 0,17 $/Wh ; Laminates: 0,3$/Wh


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LIB: THE BIGGEST PART OF THE COST

IS RAW MATERIALS

RAW MATERIALS ACCOUNT FOR 50 TO 80% OF LIB CELLS BUSINESS

RAW MATERIAL COST IMPACT DRASTICALY ON THE BATTERY MAKERS PROFIT

34

Lithium ion cell average cost Note: Average mix of cylindrical, prismatic & laminate cells

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Pro

du

ctio

n c

ost

LIB Cost structure for Japanese,

Chinese & Korean makers

Operatingprofit

Depreciation

SGA

R&D

Labor

Material

Cathode cost 21%

Anode cost 7%

Electrolyte 5%

Separator 8% Other

materials 13%

Depreciation 13%

Direct labor 6%

Energy, utilities

3%

R&D 6%

Sales & Adm 6%

Overheads 6% Margin

6%

Average cost structure of Li-ion cell in 2014


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Nice, FRANCE

LI-ION VALUE CHAIN – MARKET DEMAND

35

CATHODE

>110 OOO T in 2014

Revenues: 2,5 B$

CAGR 04/14: +16%

ANODE

>55 000 T

Revenues: 0,8 B$

CAGR 03/13: +14%

ELECTROLYTE

>45 000 T

Revenues: 0,7 B$

CAGR 04/14 : 20%

SEPARATOR

> 700 M m²

Revenues: 1,15 B$

CAGR 04/14 : 18%

CELL

MANUFACTURERS

Revenues:

15 B$

Gross margin:

<10%

ANCILLARY

Revenues: 0,8 B$

PACK

MANUFACTURERS

Revenues:

21 B$

Gross margin:

<10%

BINDER

7 500 Tons

Revenues: 0,2 B$

CAGR 08/13 : 15%


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36

LIB CATHODE MATERIAL

Cathode raw materials market

LiCoO2 (LCO)

LiMn2O4 (LMO)

LiMPO4(1) (LFP)

Li[NixMnyCoz]O2 - NMC

Li[NixCoyAlz]O2 – NCA

Supplier/customer by chemistry

Forecasts Source: SANYO, March 2011 (1) M= Fe or Mn

Source: LME

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

$/k

g

Ni & Co price 2003-2015

Ni

Co

Source: Mitsubishi, Batteries 2012 – Nice

‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15


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NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD:

CATHODE ACTIVE

MATERIALS NEEDS

Cathode active materials for LIB

in Tons, 2000-2014 (Demand)

(…)

LEADERS:

Internal 2% Nichia

9%

Umicore 15%

B&M 10%

Easpring 6% Reshine

15%

L&F 15%

Other China

8%

Others 2%

Shan Shan 9%

PULEAD 9%

LCO – >45 KT (2014)

NMC – > 25 KT (2014)

Nichia 13%

Umicore 24%

Others 8%

Internal 19%

L&F 9%

ShanShan 11%

Reshine 4%

Chinese 9%

EASPRING 3%

LMO – > 18 KT (2014)

LFP – > 20 KT (2014)

Nichia 5%

Nippon Denko

4% Yuan Yuan 4%

JGC 11%

Qyanyun 12%

ShanShan 9%

Chinese 33%

Reshine 8%

Mitsui 14%

INTERNAL 34%

JOHNSON MATTHEY

6% ALEEES 10%

STL 9%

Pulead 8%

Zhuoneng 6%

Tatung 2%

Others 25%

-

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

20

002

001

20

022

003

20

042

005

20

062

007

20

082

009

20

102

011

20

122

013

20

14

Ton

s

LFP

LMO

NCA

NMC

LCO

NCA – > 10 KT (2014)

Toda Kogyo 16%

Sumitomo 58%

Nihon Kagaku Sangyo

13%

Ecopro 5%

Others 8%


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LCO SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS IN 2014

SUPPLY >45 000 TONS IN 2014

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

SONY

PANASONIC

SDI

LGC

BYD

Lishen

ATL

BAK

Others

Tons

Nichia Corp Umicore Korea L&F

Reshine B&M ShanShan

Internal Other China Others

LCO Battery makers & suppliers

relation in 2014

LCO market share in 2014

(Volume)

38

Internal 3%

Nichia 13%

Umicore 17%

B&M 7%

Easpring 6% Reshine

11%

L&F 16%

Other China 14%

Others 3%

Shan Shan 10%


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NMC SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS IN 2014

SUPPLY > 25 000 TONS IN 2014

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

SONY

PANASONIC

SDI

LGC

Lishen

Maxell

ATL

BAK

E-One

Others

Tons

Internal Nichia Corp Umicore Korea

Chinese local ShanShan Reshine

3M L&F Beijing Easpring

Others

NMC Battery makers & suppliers

relation in 2014

NMC market share in 2014

(volume)

39

Nichia 15%

Umicore 31%

Others 4%

Internal 15%

L&F 8%

ShanShan 11%

Reshine 4%

Other China

8%

Easpring 4%


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NCA SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS IN 2013

SUPPLY > 9 000 TONS IN 2014

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

SONY

PANASONIC

SDI

Others

Tons

Toda Kogyo Corp Sumitomo Metal Mining

Nihon Kagaku Sangyo Ecopro

JFE Minerals Others

Chinese

NCA Battery makers & suppliers

relation in 2014

NCA market share in 2014

(Volume)

40

Toda Kogyo 13%

Sumitomo Metal Mining

54%

Nihon Kagaku Sangyo

13%

Ecopro 7%

Others 7%

Chinese 6%


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Nice, FRANCE

LMO SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS IN 2014

SUPPLY >18 000 TONS IN 2014

Nichia

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

SONY

PANASONIC

SDI

LGC

BYD

Lishen

Maxell

NEC

Others

Tons

Chinese local JGC Catalyst Shan Shan

Yuan Yuan Qiannyun Easpring

LMO Battery makers & suppliers

relation in 2014

LMO market share in 2014

41

Nichia Corp 7%

Chinese local 26%

Nippon denko 8%

JGC 16%

Shan Shan 9%

Reshine 8%

MGL 3%

Yuan Yuan 4%

Qiannyun 15%

Easpring 2%


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Nice, FRANCE

LFP SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS IN 2014

SUPPLY - 20 000 TONS IN 2014

LFP market is icreasing

drasticaly, mostly in China

LFP market share in 2014

42

Others: Sumitomo, BeLife (Umicore-Prayon), BASF, etc…

INTERNAL 34%

JOHNSON MATTHEY

6%

ALEEES 10%

STL 9%

Pulead 8%

Zhuoneng 6%

Tatung 2%

Others 25%

-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

45 000

50 000

2013 2014 2015 2016

Ton

ne

s d

e L

FP

Others World

Others China

LISHEN

ATL

BYD

2015, 2016 : AVICENNE forecasts


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Nice, FRANCE

CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL DEMAND

MAIN DRIVER APPLICATIONS

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

2000 2005 2010 2014

Ton

s

LCO: Smartphones, Tablets Autres

Industrie

EV

PHEV

HEV

Outils portables

Tablettes

PC Portables

Smartphones

43 Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

2000 2005 2010 2014

Ton

s

NMC: Portable PC, Auto

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

2000 2005 2010 2014

Ton

s

LMO: Auto

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

2000 2005 2010 2014

Ton

s

LFP: Tools, e-bike, Auto, Stationary

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

2000 2005 2010 2014

Ton

s

NCA: Auto (TESLA), Portable PCs

E-bus, e-bike,

mostly in China


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CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL

FORECASTS 2000-2025

Cathode active materials

2000-2025 - Tons

Cathode active materials in

2014: > 110 000 Tons

44

ASSUMPTIONS:

Portable devices: 2013-2025: +11% per year in volume

HEV 4,8 M HEV/year in 2020 - 35% LIB 6,8 M HEV in 2025 90% LIB

P-HEV 0,4 M P-HEV/year in 2020, 0,7 M in 2025 100% LIB

EV 1M EV/year in 2020, 1,5M/year in 2025 100% LIB

Industrial & stationary 2013-2025: +16% per year

Assumption: Tesla keep NCA chemistry and have a relative success (200 000 EV sold per year in 2025 – TESLA forecast 500 000)

LFP part could be higher thanks to explosion of Chinese EV market

LCO 33%

NMC 23%

NCA 8%

LMO 19%

LFP 17%

Cathode active materials in

2025: > 300 000 Tons

LCO 25%

NMC 25% NCA

14%

LMO 9%

LFP 27%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

-

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Ton

s

LCO NMC NCA

LMO LFP China (%)


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Nice, FRANCE

45

ANODE ACTIVE MATERIALS

> 55 000 TONS IN 2014

LIB Anode Materials

Source: Hitachi Chemical

Source: Sanyo, March 2013

LIB Anode market, (Tons)

LIB Anode Materials

Source: A. Jossen, IRES 2007

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

To

ns

LTO

Si or Sn Type

Amorphous Carbon

Meso-Phase

Artificial Graphite

Natural Graphite


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ANODE FOR LIB IN 2014

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

SANYO

SONY

PANASONIC

SDI

LGC

BYD

Lishen

Maxell

ATL

BAK

A123

Others

ARTIFICIAL

MCMB

NATURAL

Amorphous

METAL

46

Natural graphite become a commodity

Note: MCMB: Mesocarbon Microbeads

Source: Hitachi Chemical

Natural Graphite

64%

Artificial Graphite

26%

MCMB 4%

Amorphous 4%

Si or Sn Type 1%

LTO 1%

Carbon for LIB anodes by type (2013)

(…)

NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: LEADERS:

Hard Carbon

Soft Carbon

Graphite

Capacity (/g)

400 mAh/g 250 mAh/g 325-375 mAh/g

Capacity (/cc)

++ 0 +

Power ++ + 0

Stability ++ + 0

Cyclability ++ + 0

Precursors Petroleum Pitch, Resin,

cellulose, wood,

coconuts…

Petroleum coke

Natural or petroleum

coke

COST 2012->2020

30 -> 25 $/kg

25->20 $/kg

15 -> 10 $/kg

SUPPLIERS KUREHA

HITACHI HITACHI BTR

& many others


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NATURAL GRAPHITE SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS

38 000 TONS IN 2014

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

PANASONIC

SONY

SDI

LGC

BYD

Lishen

Maxell

ATL

BAK

A123

Tons

Nippon Carbon Mitsubishi Chemical

Shenzhen BTR Chuo Denki Kogyo

Carbon Tech Ghangsha Hairong

LS Mtron Carbonics Others

Natural Graphite Battery makers

& suppliers relation in 2014

Natural Graphite market share in

2014

47

Hitachi Chemical

17%

Nippon Carbon 15%

Mitsubishi Chemical

7%

Shenzhen BTR 35%

Chuo Denki Kogyo

1%

Carbon Tech 3%

Ghangsha Hairong

4%

LS Mtron Carbonics

10% Others 8%

Others: Sumitomo, Mitsui, LG, etc…


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ARTIFICIAL GRAPHITE

14 000 TONS IN 2014

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

PANASONIC

SONY

SDI

LGC

BYD

Lishen

Maxell

ATL

BAK

A123

Others

Tons Hitachi Chemical JFE Chemical

Shenzhen BTR Shanshan Tech

Showa Denko Tokai Carbon

ConoccoPhilipps Others

Artificial Graphite Battery makers

& suppliers relation in 2014

Artificial Graphite market share

in 2014

48

Hitachi Chemical 68%

JFE Chemical 5%

Shenzhen BTR 6%

Shanshan Tech 10%

Showa Denko 7%

Tokai Carbon 3%

ConoccoPhilipps 1%


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LIB SEPARATOR MARKET 2014

LIB separator market, M$,

CAGR 2004/2014: +17%

LIB Separator supplier, market

share in 2014

49

Others: TDK/Nitto Denko, Foshan Jinhui Hi-Tech, Shenzhen Senior Technology Material, Xinxiang Green next Energy, Dupont,…

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

M$

Evonik, TEIJIN, HIFUTURE, UBE-MAXELL (…)


ASAHI 25%

TORAY 23%

SUMITOMO 1%

ENTEK 3%

SK 13%

CELGARD 14%

UBE 7%

Others 14%


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ELECTROLYTE SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS

44 000 TONS IN 2014

LIB electrolyte market, Tons,

CAGR 2004/2014: +23%

LIB electrolyte supplier, market

share in 2014

50

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Ton

s

Cellular Portable PC TabletsPower tools E-bikes HEVPHEV EV Others

Note: (1) GTHR: Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huarong


Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huang JINNIU

UBE 5% Mitsubishi

Chem 14%

In-house 9%

Tomiyama 3%

PANAX-ETEC 13%

GTHR 15% Mitsui

3%

Jinniu 8%

Cap Chem 8%

ShanShan 7%

Soulbrain 7%

Others 8%


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LIB ELECTROLYTE MARKET 2014 Electrolyte Battery makers & suppliers relation in 2014 (Tons)

51 (2) Panax-Etec bought Samsung Chiel activities in 2010 (1) Full electrolyte formulation in-house

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

Sony

Panasonic

SDI

LG Chem

BYD

Lishen

Maxell

ATL

BAK

A123

NEC

YUASA (LEJ)

Yuasa (BEC)

TOSHIBA

Tons

Mitsubishi Chem In-house Tomiyama PANAX-ETEC GTHR

Mitsui BASF Jinniu Cap Chem ShanShan

Soulbrain Tinci Others


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LIB ELECTROLYTE MARKET 2005-2014 Electrolyte maker sales 2005-2014

52

Ube

Mitsubishi

In-House

Tomiyama

PANAX (2)

GTHR

Mitsui

BASF (Merck, Novolyte)

Jinniu

Capchem

Shanshan

Soulbrain

-

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

Ton

s

Ube Mitsubishi In-House

Tomiyama PANAX-ETEC Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huarong

Mitsui BASF (Merck, Novolyte) Jinniu

Capchem Shanshan Soulbrain

(2) Panax-Etec bought Samsung Chiel activities in 2010 (1) Full electrolyte formulation in-house


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BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS

2014-2025

Portable PCs, net-book, Ultra-book Cellular Phones, Smart-phones Tablets Camcorders Cordless Tools, Gardening tools Digital Camera Games, MP3 Cordless Phones Shavers, Toothbrush, RC Cars E-bikes Power tools Security lighting Vehicles: HEV, P-HEV, EV Industrial motive (forklift) Industrial stationary (UPS, Telecom) Medical Energy Storage (Small / large)

Applications covered Parameters analysis

53

Main segment trends

Power need trends (volume, weight, capacity, running time)

Penetration rate for each Chemistry, each form factor,

2013 -2025 Forecasts

OEM strategies and positions

Main drivers & limiters


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54

PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES

FORECASTS 2010-2025

-

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000 OTHERS

INDIA

ASIA

CHINA

JAPAN

EUROPE

USA

Cellular phones demand (M Units)

CAGR 2010-2025: +6%

Cellular Phones market Drivers

Emergent market

Renewal ratio increase

Smartphone penetration increase

LIB cells for cellular phones

trends

Laminates ratio increase

Increase of Thickness

Increase of >1400 mAh capacity

LIB cells demand 2010-2025

Polymer penetration: 30% -> 75%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Polymer

Prismatic

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses


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55

PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES

FORECASTS 2010-2025

0

50

100

150

200

250

Emerging

Mature

Portable PCs demand (M Units)

2014-2025 – Almost stable

Portable PCs market trends

Mature market stable or decreasing

Growth driven by Emerging market

Ultrabook is increasing (20(1) to 60% in 2013(2))

ASP decreasing (<499$ Portable PCs increase from 25% in 2010 to 33% in 2012

(1) Samsung & AVICENNE (2) Intel Source: IDC, Gartner, AVICENNE Energy

LIB cells for portable PCs trends

Thinner cells

Polymer penetration increasing from 7% in 2010 to 28% in 2025

> 2800 mAh for Premium/corporate

2.2 Ah for consumer, emerging market


LIB cells demand 2014-2025

Polymer penetration: 20% -> 40%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Laminate

Prismatic

Cylindrical

Cyl. 80%

Pris. 1%

Lam. 19%


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2025 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE

ELECTRONIC DEVICES

2000-2025 LIB market, MWh, by

application (3C)

2000-2025 LIB market, M cells,

by form factor (3C)

56

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

M c

ells

/yea

r Li-PLi-ion PrLi-ion CylTakeshita - March 2013 (1)

(1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 2013 BJ-3 conference Slide p 4


CAGR 14-25: + 10%

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

2000

2005

2010

2013

2014

2015

2020

2025

MW

h

Others

Household

Toys

MP3

Video Games

Digital Camera

Camcorders

Cordless Phones

Tablets

Portable PCs

Cellular Phones


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X-EV MARKET

Why x-EV ?

Definition & segmentation

X-EV worldwide in 2014 By country

By car makers

By battery chemistry

X-EV forecasts AVICENNE ENERGY & other analyst forecasts

Battery chemistry forecasts

Battery cost forecasts

X-EV battery forecasts

57


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0

50

100

150

Million barrel per day

Price of the WTI1 barrel of oil,

US $

MAJOR DRIVER: CO2 regulation

worldwide: From 2013 to 2014

Oil price decrease but HEV sales

increase by 5%, P-HEV by 30%

and EV by 60%

58

WHY X-EV ?

Petroleum consumption worldwide

1960-2030

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

19

73

20

05

20

07

20

09

20

11

20

13

20

15 G

aso

line

Pri

ce –

US$

/ G

allo

n

Cru

de

Oil

Pri

ce -

US

$ /

Bar

rel

Source: Energy Information Administration, US Government

Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html

Note 1 WTI: West Texas Intermediate

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

2012 2015 2020

CO

2 E

mis

sio

n (

g/km

)

Europe USA Japan China


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59

HEV, P-HEV & EV

DEFINITION & SEGMENTATION

Note: Micro HEV are not in the HEV statistics & HEV forecast

EV & HEV MARKET

EV 25 kWh

HEV 0.6-2 kWh batteries

MICRO HEV*

MILD HEV

MEDIUM HEV

FULL HEV

P HEV 10 kWh batteries

CITROEN C2, C3 BMW 3Series

Fiat 500 Hyundai i10 Hyudai i30

Kia Smart for2

Toyota Yaris Toyota Auris VW Passat

…..

GM Saturn Vue GM AURA

GM MALIBU HONDA ACCORD

HONDA CIVIC INSIGHT

MERCEDES S400

TOYOTA PRIUS

TOYOTA CAMRY FORD ESCAPE FORD FUSION

MILAN GM YUKON GM TAHOE

NISSAN ALTIMA

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0 $ 5 000 $ 10 000 $ 15 000 $

Fuel saving Vs. Cost

HEV

P-HEV

EV


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HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2014

2 M HEV

HEV sold per year, M units,

worldwide, 2000 - 2014

Penetration of hybrids in the

global sales, 2000-2014

60

Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY

Micro hybrid not included

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

200

0

20

01

200

2

20

03

200

4

20

05

200

6

20

07

200

8

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Mill

ion

TOYOTA OTHERS

USA

JAPON

EUROPE 0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

200

020

01

200

220

03

200

420

05

200

620

07

200

820

09

201

020

11

201

220

13

201

4

Pen

etra

tio

n o

f h

ybri

ds

in t

he

glo

bal

e s

ales

Growth 2013-2014: +5% From 1,9 M to 2 M HEV


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BY CAR SUPPLIER

TOYOTA 69%

HONDA 15%

FORD 4%

NISSAN 3%

GM 1%

HYUNDAI 3%

OTHERS 5%

Total HEV Vehicles

2 Million HEV in 2014

HEV sold per year, M units per

car manufacturers, 2000-2014

61

TOYOTA

HONDA

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

‘ 00

0 H

EV s

old

TOYOTA HONDA



Others: Chineses, VW, Porsche, Mercedes, Mazda, Audi, Subaru etc…

HONDA & FORD market share growing


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BY CAR SUPPLIER

TOP 3: TOYOTA, HONDA,

FORD

OTHERS: FORD, GM, …

62

FORD

GM

HYUNDAI

NISSAN

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

‘ 00

0 H

EV s

old

FORD GM NISSAN



TOYOTA

HONDA

FORD 0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

‘ 00

0 H

EV s

old

TOYOTA HONDA FORD


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BY COUNTRY

USA 23%

EUROPE 12%

JAPAN 57%

OTHERS 8%

Total HEV Vehicles

2 M in 2014

HEV sold per year, M units per

country, 2004-2014

63

USA

EUROPE

JAPAN

OTHERS

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4




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64


0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

P-HEV sales

Others

Volvo

Mitsubishi

Ford

Toyota

GM Volt,Ampera 0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

EV sales

Others

CHINA

VW

BMW

Honda

Toyota

Tesla

Renault

Smart

Ford

MITSUBISHI

NISSAN

US 41%

JAPON 25%

EUROPE 22%

CHINE 5%

Others 7% US

25%

JAPAN 11%

EUROPE 26%

CHINA 31%

OTHERS 7%

P-HEV & EV SALES 2010-2014 (YEARLY)

+28%

+58%


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LIB FOR AUTOMOTIVE

VALUE CHAIN

65

The largest share of the value (40%) comes from cell components

Cell manufacturers & OEM alliance may be the winning model but comes with high risk if the wrong cell manufacturer is selected

Tiers 1- cell manufacturers alliance: most of them disappear (eg. Saft-Johnson Controls, Bosch-Samsung, Enerdel-Delphi…)

Tiers 1- OEM alliance on Battery are not successful

Panasonic and LG Chem, cell manufacturers develop raw -material in-house and make the pack integration for OEM

On a different scale, Toyota, BYD or BOLLORE are fully integrate

1

2

3

5

4

6

Comments


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66

LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS

2009-2015

10-12 B$ WORLDWIDE >50 GWh invest from 2011 to 2014)

< 7 B$ invested from 2014 to 2017 by TESLA (5), BYD (1,2), ATL (1)

TESLA Plant, Nevada, Feb 2015

0 2000 4000 6000

PANASONICNISSAN Motor US

SonyBYD

LG ChemJCI

A123SanyoEner1

Nissan-Renault (Fr)Dow Kokam

GS YUASASB Limotive

Hitachi Vehicle EnergyLithium Energy JapanRusnano-Thunder Sky

LG ChemNissan - Renault (UK)

ToshibaBlue Energy

Nissan-Renault (Port)Lishen

BAKSAFT US

SAFTHitachi Vehicle Energy

AESC JaponNEC Tokin

Mitsubishi H.I.SK Energy

Panasonic EVLiTec GmbH

TESLA (2014-2017)BYD (2013 - 2015)ATL (2014 - 2017)

M$

Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing

Average 2012-2014 Investments: 250 $ / kWh


2014 – 2017 TESLA, ATL, BYD

Investments: 150 $ / kWh

TESLA GIGA FACTORY, Feb 2015


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TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS

IN LIB INDUSTRY

The research and development in this industry is very long and time consuming.

Time to market to commercialize a new material is long. Remember that the first Li-ion battery was launched by Sony in 1991 with LCO cathode, graphite, LiPF6 electrolyte & polyolefin membrane. It was 20 years ago.

LTO was invented by Matsushita in 1993 (22 years ago)

Lithium iron phosphate was invented in 1995 (20 years ago).

So, it takes between 10 & 20 years to commercialize a new material in the battery industry.

67


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BATTERY TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP

68

Batteries take a long time to develop; to reach the

automotive market, another 4 to 5 years are needed

Source: Avicenne Energy analysis


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TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS

IN LIB INDUSTRY

69


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SAFETY ISSUES

70

Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious

safety concerns

In the 80’s, lithium metal batteries were put into the markets (Moli Energy). Their further development has for a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues: High chemical reactivity and a low melting point enable strong chemical reactions, even explosions. In the charging-discharging process, lithium metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes. The growing lithium dendrite could puncture the separator and result in an internal short circuit.

• CONSEQUENCES: Except BOLLORE, all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelled their projects

Bac

kg

rou

nd

M

ob

ile

Li-ion batteries for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquid

electrolyte.

In case of overcharging or short-circuit (contact between anode & cathode) a chain reaction

starts -> heating & gasing -> fire (“Thermal runaway”)

CONSEQUENCES: In 2006, SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs of

400 million USD, more than there profit-to-date

Au

tom

oti

ve

A

irc

raft

Boing 787: The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was caused

by an overheating Lithium ion battery pack. The battery fire could have been hot enough to

melt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the plane’s shell.

CONSEQUENCES: All the 787 worldwide are grounded. Considerable losses for Boing.

With new cathode chemistry, most of the automotive today on the markets experienced safety concerns:

(1) BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode (2) GM Volt in the US with a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes (as a result of a crashed tested Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing !) (3) PRIUS P-HEV in the US (converted from HEV Prius by a local engineering company without any authorisation by Toyota)


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LIB BUSINESS

RECALLS SLASH BATTERY PROFIT

71

More & more incidents & accidents

All the battery makers and the OEM are concerned

Recall cost impact drastically the battery business and the profitability

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

Op

era

tin

g p

rofi

t/R

eve

nu

e

RECALL SLASH BATTERY PROFIT

Sanyo

MBI

BYD

SGS

Sony

NEC

Maxell

LGC

SDI

Average


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SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON SELECTION

CRITERIA FOR BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES

72

Some technologies are already out of the game due to

stability issues


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LIB BATTERY COST

Raw material cost (Co, Mn, Ni, Al, Cu, …)

Anode, cathode, Electrolyte , separator, binders, Cu & Al foil, etc… cost structure :

CAPEX,

labor cost,

R&D

Marketing, Adm, Overhead, margin)

Raw material needs / mAh

Electrode process Yield

Assembly Process Yield

Cell manufacturing cost

Module manufacturing cost

Pack assembly cost

…

Costs analysis Battery price in 2014

$/kWh

73

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

LIB18650

cell

LIB EVCell

LIB packfor EV

LIB HEVcell

LIB packfor HEV


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BATTERY & POWER ELEC. COST IN EV

74 AVICENNE ENERGY - CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION

€ 8,250 -€ 18,100

€ 5,500 -€ 8,000

€ 50 -€ 300

€ 1,000 -€ 2,500

€ 100 -€ 400 € 50 -

€ 400

HV batt. Pack for EV€ 8,150 -€ 15,100

€ 150 -€ 350 € 900 -

€ 1,250

€ 150 -€ 350

€ 150 -€ 250 € 300 -

€ 500

€ 1,500 -€ 3,000

Charger

DC/DCconverter

InverterRectifier

GeneratorInverter

HV battery

cell Packaging material

LV batterypack

CoolingSyst

HVCables &

Connectors

Batt.MagtSyst

Batt.Packaging

Manuf.

Overall

HV batt. CELL

for EV

0 €

2 000 €

4 000 €

6 000 €

8 000 €

10 000 €

12 000 €

Power Elec

Pack Manufacturing

BMS

Thermal Mgmt + packaging

Cell manu

Cell Active Hybrid 5 Volt Bluecar Leaf

HEV P-HEV EV


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LIB CELL BILL OF MATERIALS

75 AVICENNE ENERGY - CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION

NISSAN LEAF

GM VOLT BMW ACTIVE HYBRID 5

BOLLORE BLUE CAR


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LI-ION BATTERY COST

2013-2020

LIB cell average cost (36Ah pouch)

(EV design ; LMO/NMC cathode)

LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST

FOR EV

76

* For Production > 100 000 packs/year

(1) Active materials only

2015* 2020* 2014*

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Ce

ll

Pac

k

Ce

ll

Pac

k

Ce

ll

Pac

k

$ /

kW

h

Pack Cost

CellManufacturing

OtherMaterials

Separator

Electrolyte

Anode

Cathode0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2014 2015 2020

$ /

kW

h

Margin

Warranty

Overheads

Sales & Adm

R&D

Energy, utilities

Direct labor

Depreciation

Others

Separator

Electrolyte

Anode (1)

Cathode (1)


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HEV FORECASTS

2000-2020

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

HEV

pen

etra

tio

n (

% o

f to

tal c

ar s

ales

)

USA EUROPE JAPAN

OTHERS WORLD

HEV MARKET: >2 Million units in 2015 – 3 M in 2020 – 5 M in 2025

77

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS




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EV, P-HEV, EV 2025 FORECASTS

0,9

2 2,2

3,2

5

0,135 0,17

0,4

0,65

0,25 0,35

1

1,5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2010 2014 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

car

s

EV

P-HEV

HEV

S1: HEV, P-HEV & EV market

forecasts up to 2025

S2: HEV, P-HEV & EV market

forecasts up to 2025

78

Scenario 2: thanks to very high incentives, China could

change the game

0,9

1,9 2,1

3,2

5

0,13 0,16

0,38

0,62

0,17 0,27

0,75

1,1

0,3

1

1

1,5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2010 2014 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

car

s

EV in China

P-HEV in China

HEV in China

EV

P-HEV

HEV


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TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND

2025 FORECASTS

EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh)

CAGR 2014-2025: +16% / S2:+22%

Total battery demand (MWh)

CAGR 2014-2025: +11% / S2: +14%

79

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025M

Wh

NiCd NiMH except AutoLIB except Auto NiMH for HEVLIB for HEV LIB for P-HEVLIB for EV S2 EV China Explosion

-

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

180 000

200 000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

M W

h

NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV

LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV

S2 (China Explosion)

Scenario 2: thanks to very high incentives, China could change

the game


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X-EV BATTERY MARKET 2000 – 2025 IN

M$ Rechargeable battery market, M$ for x-EV 2000-2025

80

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

2005 2010 2014 2015 2020 2025M

$

NiMH for HEV LIB for HEVLIB for P-HEV LIB for EVChina (S2)

Pack Level CAGR 2014-2025: +8% / S2:+11%

CAGR Li-ion 2014-2025: 10% / S2: 13%

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

2005 2010 2014 2015 2020 2025

M $

NiMH for HEV LIB for HEVLIB for P-HEV LIB for EVChina (S2)

Cell Level CAGR 2014-2025: +8% / S2:+11%

CAGR Li-ion 2014-2025: 11% / S2: 14%

(S2) (S2)


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35 MILLION MICRO-HYBRIDS CAR IN

2020

Micro-hybrids car market

2010-2020

Advantages of micro-hybrid

compare to HEV

81

Powered by Advanced lead acid batteries

Much more profitable than full HEV: 8 to 10 times less expensive than full HEV to save 5% gasoline instead of 20% (4 times less)

Much more impact on CO2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2010 2015 2020

Mill

ion

Micro-hybrid car sold per year

AVICENNE

OptimisticScenario

JD Power

Valeo

Micro-hybrid Full HEV

Battery Advanced lead acid

NiMH or LIB

Cost ($) 300 3000

Fuel saving 5% 20%

Million Vehicle sold per year in 2020

35 3.5


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HEV, P-HEV AND EV REALITY OF THE MARKET WILL

BOOST MICRO HYBRID AND ADVANCED LEAD ACID

BATTERIES

82

Stand

ard

Lead acid

Batteries

2010 2015 2020 AFTER

Li-ion

batteries

NiM

H b

atte

ries

STANDARD CAR

88.5% EV

P-HEV

FULL

HEV

1%

MILD

HEV

0.5%

MICRO

HYBRIDS

10%

Ad

vanced

Lead acid

NiM

H

STANDARD CAR

44%

MICRO HYBRID

50%

EV

P-HEV

2%

FULL

HEV

4%

ULTRA

BATTERY Li-Air, Li-S, Fuel Cells Li-ion


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0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

1990 2000 2010 2013 2014

MW

h


Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid


1990-2013

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)

83


Lead Acid Batteries

+350 GWh for > US $ 30 Billion

64%

33% 3%

SLI

Industrial

E-bikes

24%

22%

12%

40% 2%

Telecom

UPS

OtherStationary

Forklift

Othermotive

Industrial Batteries

58 GWh for US $ 13 Billion


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IN 2014: US $ 60 BILLION (1)

Portable

Automotive

SLI

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000Others

SLI

Automotive

Portable

Other Applications

Marine

Medical devices

Wheelchair

Medical Cart

Other Stationary

Seismic

ESS

Other Stand-by

UPS

Telecom

Other Motive

Forklift

Power Tools

E-Bikes

84


(1) Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included


0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

Lead Acid LIB

Other Applications

Marine

Medical devices

Wheelchair

Medical Cart

Other Stationary

Seismic

ESS

Other Stand-by

UPS

Telecom

Other Motive

Forklift

Power Tools

E-Bikes

US $ 20

Billion for

“other”

applications


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TOTAL POTENTIAL MARKET ANALYZED

IN THE SURVEY (M$, PACK LEVEL1)

Application details US$ 20 Billion in 2014 (1)

85

E-Bikes 12%

Power Tools 9%

Forklift 20%

Telecom 17%

UPS 14%

Medical devices

6%

Marine 3% Other App 6%

E-Bikes

Power Tools

Forklift

Other Motive

Telecom

UPS

Other Stand-by

ESS

Seismic

Other Stationary

Medical Cart

Wheelchair

Medical devices

Marine

Other App (2)

1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included

2- Other App: Military, aerospace, Oil & Gas, Railways, Aviation, Utility metering,…

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2013

1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 10 11 6

Battery Market (%)

Power Tools 8%

E-bikes 13%

Industrial

Motive

Forklifts 20%

Others 1%

TOTAL MOTIVE 21%

Stationary

Telecom back-up 16%

UPS 14%

Misc. Standby 2%

ESS 3%

Seismic (1) 1%

Other Stationary 6%

Total STATIONARY 42%

TOTAL INDUSTRIAL 63%

Medical Cart 1%

Wheelchair 0%

Medical Device 7%

Marine 3%

Others (2) 6%

TOTAL 17 600


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MARKET SEGMENT SYNTHESIS

TEMPLATE

86 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses

LIB market in value

2012/2025 -

CAGR

Battery market in

value 2012/2025 -

CAGR

LIB main drivers &

limiters

Battery market by

Area

LIB market by Area

LIB Penetration in

% of total device

LIB market in M$

Major competitors

Major customers

Most important performances characteristic, ASP, Average capacity

LIB most valuable improvement LIB form factor

ASP in 2012 &

2020


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87

1- E-BIKES LIB: FROM US$ 1,1 BILLION IN 2013 TO 2,7 IN 20201 – CAGR: +18%

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

LIB

Lead Acid

Market 2013-2020 (US $,

Million) – CAGR: 13%

Main drivers

E-bike in China: Banning of gasoline powered motorcycles in china boost e-bikes: “Necessary”

In US, Europe and Japan, “Green image”, sport, leisure, transportation: “Environment & Health”

LIB penetration in China from 6 to 14%

Main Limiters

In Japan, US and Europe, E-bikes are already equipped by Li-ion

In China the only parameter to choose a battery is the cost

Chinese E-bike ASP: 320 $/kWh: very difficult to penetrate this market


Performances characteristic

1- Cycle life

2-Energy density

3- Low cost

Average Capacity:300 Wh

Battery needs Most valuable improvements

1- Price decrease 2- Cycle life 3- Fast charge

Form factor: from cylindrical to Laminate No standardization

LIB needs

0%

50%

100%

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

202

0

LIB Penetration (% device)

LIB Penetration

China

US, EU, Jap

Note: 1- Pack level – 2- A Johnson Matthey affiliate

-

1 000

2 000

3 000

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

LIB market (M$)

CHINA Others

3% 10%

77%

10% Battery 2013 by Area

US

Europe

China

Others

Competitors BMZ (Germany)

AXEON2 (UK)

HITECH (Taiwan)

Phylion (China)

…

Customers Bosch,

Panasonic

Bion-X

TranX-Z

+ > 500 e-bike mfg.

3%

14%

73%

10% LIB 2020 by Area

US

Europe

China

Others

ASP1 : 2012: 600 $/Kwh 2020: 400 $/kWh

ASP : 2012: 80 $/kWh 2020: 70 $/kWh


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88

2- POWER TOOLS LIB: FROM US$ 0,8 BILLION IN 2012 TO 1,2 IN 20201 – CAGR: +7%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Li-ion

NICd

Market 2013-2020 (US $,

Million) – CAGR:+3%

LIB Main

drivers Higher voltage

NiCd substitution

NiCd regulation

Cordless power tools & gardening tools market increase (+4% per year)

Higher energy density, less weight

LIB main

Limiters LIB average sales price

Reliability

High rate discharge

Fast charge

Life time


Important characteristic:

1- Higher power & capacity

2-Fast recharge

2012 ASP NiCd: 350 $/kWh

2012 ASP LIB: 550 $/kWh

Average Capacity: 60 Wh


1- Price decrease

2- Fast charge

3- High rate discharge

Form factor: Cylindrical

No standardization

LIB needs

0%

20%

40%

60%

LIB Penetration

LIB Penetration

Note: : 1- Pack level

-

500

1 000

1 500

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

LIB market (M$)

Customers Bosch

B&D

TTI

Makita

Jingding

Hilti

…

ASP1 2012:560 $/Kwh 2020: 390 $/Kwh

ASP: 2012: 335 $/kWh 2020: 275 $/kWh

Battery 2013 by Area

>75% of the power tools are made in China

But, battery pack could be made on the end-user area (Ex: Bosch – Axeon Poland)

LIB 2020 by Area

Power tools will be made in China

Local demand in Europe, US, next to the end user to increase flexibility & Just in Time mfg.

Competitors

Cell/Pack Mfg.: TOP3: Samsung, Panasonic, Sony (> 75%)

Pack makers: AXEON (Bosch),


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89

3- MOTIVE INDUSTRIAL: FORKLIFTS2 LIB: FROM US$ 60 MILLION IN 2013 TO 375 IN 20201 – CAGR: >40%

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

LIB

Lead Acid

Market 2013-2020 (US $,

Million) – CAGR:7%

Main drivers

Where economies are healthy, they reflect strong motive power production

Europe & US got high E-forklift ratio compare to Asia

LIB higher life time (* 3 to 5)

Multiple shift operation where battery change is required (time consuming)

Main Limiters

Low penetration of E-forklift in Asia High LIB capital price (x 5 compare to lead acid) Safety concerns in two of the lift truck types, sit-down rider and high reach, the counterbalance for the lift truck is supplied mainly by a lead acid battery


important characteristic

1-high charge/discharge rates and capacity

2-high life time, range,

Average Capacity: 22 kWh


1- Price 2- Convince customers on “total cost of ownership”

Form factor: large format prismatic – size standardization

LIB needs

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

LIB Penetration

Note: : 1- Pack level 2- Including all kind of Material handling equipment

-

100

200

300

LIB market (M$)

Customers For lead acid, After market represent 60% of the market: lot of different customers (industrials)

For LIB, OEM Forklift: TOYOTA, Kion , Jungheinrich, NACCO , Crown, Mitsubishi Caterpillar

42% 51%

7%

LIB 2020 by Area

US

Europe

Others

ASP 2012:550 $/kWh 2020: 365 $/kWh

ASP 2012:150 $/kWh 2020: 144 $/kWh

Battery 2012 by Area Europe – largest producer of motive power batteries – has higher percentage of electric vs. gas trucks (75%) than in N. America (64%) – China: High % of Gas/propane trucks (> 80%)

Competitors

Lead Acid & LIB: Enersys (35%), Exide (10%), East Penn (10%), Hoppecke (10%), Crown (10%)

LIB systems: BMZ, Lithium Balance, …


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90

4- STATIONARY: TELECOM MARKET LIB: FROM US$ 0,2 BILLION IN 2013 TO 1,1 IN 20201 – CAGR: >50%

-

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

LIB

Lead Acid

Market 2013-2020 (US $,

Million) – CAGR: +7%

Main drivers

LIB developed for new equipment

Increased Bandwidth requirements

Wireless Market driving growth

Strong Network Growth in China, India, E. Europe & S. America

2G-> 3G -> 4G … need new equipment's

LIB: Specially in Hot climate

main Limiters

Lead Acid Vs. Li-ion…

Lead Acid capital cost 5 times cheaper

Total cost of ownership could be compare with Lead acid

14%

28%

20% 14%

16% 8%


ChinaEuropeUSIndiaOthersJapan


Most important performances characteristic

1- Hot T°C performances

2- Customized for the new Equipment network

Average Capacity: 5-10 kWh modules (100 Ah)


1- Capital costs 2- Safety Proof 3- Reliability

Customized battery developed for new equipment

LIB needs

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

LIB Penetration

Note: : 1- Pack level

-

500

1 000

1 500

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

LIB market (M$)

Customers Not so many customers; big telecom carriers in each countries

16%

21%

19% 19%

20% 5%


China

Europe

US

India

Others

Japan

ASP 2012: 600 $/kWh 2020: 400 $/kWh

ASP 2012: 200 $/kWh 2020: 185 $/kWh

Competitors Lead Acid & LIB: Enersys (35%), Exide (10%), and local suppliers in each countries

LIB systems: “large companies” : SAFT, others?


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91

5- STATIONARY: UPS MARKET LIB: FROM US$ < 0,1 BILLION IN 2013 TO 0,5 IN 20201 – CAGR>+40%

-

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

LIB

Lead Acid

Market 2013-2020 (US $,

Million) – CAGR: +4%

Main drivers

UPS Drivers: New Data Storage Centers Mobile Society

LIB drivers: Less volume, less place > Life time

LIB is more needed where data are sensitive Li-ion battery could also help to save electricity during peak time

main Limiters

Safety could be an important issue here



1- Back-up at high current

2- weight, volume

3- life time

Average Capacity: 3-5 kWh modules


1- Convince on Safety 2- Capital Cost 3- Reliability

Form factor: Cylindrical New development for new equipment

LIB needs

0%

2%

4%6%

8%

10%

LIB Penetration

Note: UPS: Uninterruptible Power Supply

APC: American Power Conversion

-

200

400

600

LIB market (M$)

Customers Few leaders/many products:

Emerson/Liebert

Schneider/APC

Eaton Powerware

Gamatronic

Riello

ASP 2012:600 $/kWh 2020: 400 $/kWh

ASP 2012: 200 $/kWh 2020: 170 $/kWh

14%

28%

20% 14%

16% 8%


ChinaEuropeUSIndiaOthersJapan

16%

21%

19% 19%

20% 5%


China

Europe

US

India

Others

Japan

Competitors Lead Acid & LIB: Enersys (35%), Exide (10%), and local suppliers in each countries

LIB systems: local companies providing > services


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THE BATTERY MARKET FOR ENERGY

STORAGE SYSTEM (ESS)

ESS segmentation ESS by power rating

92

Source: KEMA, Market Evaluation for Energy Storage in the United States, 2012

ESS

Mecanical Kinetic Flywheels

Potential

Hydroelectric

(PHS)

Compressed Air

(CAES)

Fuel

Chemical

Electrochemistry BATTERIES & Flow Batteries

Photo synthesis & Biomass

Gaz, H2 Thermal

PHS: Pumped Hydroelectric Storage CAES: Compressed air energy storage Source: Electricity Storage Association


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93

6- ESS (LARGE SYSTEMS2) LIB: FROM US$ 0,2 BILLION IN 2013 TO 0,7 IN 20201 – CAGR: +30%

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

LIB

Others

Battery Market 2013-2020 (US

$, Million) – CAGR: +25%

Main drivers

Integration of Renewable energy

Poor electricity network

Gas Turbine Replacement

Purpose:

Frequency Regulation

Peak Shifting

Load Leveling

main Limiters

Not a mature market

Business model ?

Regulation?

Battery capital cost (leasing could be a good solution)



1- Life time

2- Power capabilities

3- Cost

Average Capacity: from 10 kWh to MWh


1- cost of ownership

Customized development

LIB needs

0%

20%

40%

60%

LIB Penetration

Note: : 1- Pack level – 2- > 10 kWh systems

:

-

200

400

600

800

LIB market (M$)

Customers Large Electricity providers

New comers with renewable energy

Often support by local government

22%

45%

11%

6% 16%


CHINA

US

JAPAN

EUROPE

OTHERS

88%

1% 11%

Battery 2012 by type

> 100 kWh

10-100kWh

< 10 kWh

Competitors All big LIB suppliers: Panasonic, Samsung, LG, … A123, Johnson Controls Yuasa SAFT Tesla Altairnano …

ASP 2012:900 $/kWh 2020: 500 $/kWh

ASP 2012: 500 $/kWh 2020: 450 $/kWh


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94

7- ESS (SMALL SYSTEMS)2 LIB: FROM US$ 40 MILLION IN 2013 TO 170 IN 20201 – CAGR>30%

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

LIB

Others

Battery Market 2013-2020 (US

$, Million) – CAGR: +27%

Main drivers

Residential back-up

PV Integration

« Net Zero Energy Home »

Electricity cost

Government subsidiaires

main Limiters

Not a mature market

Business model ?

Regulation?

Battery capital cost (leasing could be a good solution)



1- Energy density

2-Life time

3- Power capabilities

Average Capacity: < 10 kWh


1- Cost of ownership

2- Life time

3- Charge acceptance

Customized development

Standardization?

LIB needs

0%

20%

40%

60%

LIB Penetration

Note: : 1- Pack level – 2- < 10 kWh systems for home or office 3- Battery pack only, not including the management system, power electronics, installation, … The total price of a 7 kWh system from SAFT is 10 k€ (1800 $/kWh)

-

50

100

150

200

LIB market (M$)

Customers Large Electricity suppliers

Private companies: (Ex: Solarcities, One Energy Corp., SunRun’s)

PV residential solution providers: Panasonic, Kyocera, Sharp, SMA …

88%

1% 11%

Battery 2012 by type

> 100 kWh

10-100kWh

< 10 kWh

Competitors All big LIB suppliers: Panasonic, Samsung, LG, … A123, Johnson Controls Yuasa SAFT Tesla Altairnano …

ASP 2012:8003 $/kWh 2020: 400 $/kWh

ASP 2012: 450 $/kWh 2020: 400 $/kWh

Main countries

Germany

France

US

Japan

http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/germanys-pv-storage-incentive-program-will-come-into-force-on-may-1_100010946/#axzz2ahdH8SxI


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THE BATTERY MARKET FOR ESS IN

2013-2020

95

AVICENNE ENERGY estimates the ESS market in 2013

< 500 M$

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

M$

ESS market in M$ worldwide

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

MW

h

ESS market in MWh worldwide

Li-ion Others

On Sept 2011 NGK-manufactured NaS batteries plant caught fire. Following the

incident, NGK temporarily suspended production

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NGK_Insulators


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2013 OTHER APPLICATION MARKET

US$ MILLION

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Others

Li-ion

Ni based

Lead Acid

96

US $ 18 Billion in 2013

71% 4%

21%

4%

MOTIVE STATIONNARY MEDICAL


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2020 OTHER APPLICATION MARKET

US$ MILLION

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Others

Li-ion

Ni based

Lead Acid

97

US $ 28 Billion in 2020 – CAGR 2013/2020: +8%

59%

2%

35%

4%

MOTIVE STATIONNARY MEDICAL


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“OTHER APPLICATIONS”

10 B$ POTENTIAL MARKET1

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

Lead Acid LIB

Other Applications

Marine

Medical devices

Wheelchair

Medical Cart

Other Stationary

Seismic

ESS

Other Stand-by

UPS

Telecom

Other Motive

Forklift

Power Tools

E-Bikes

98



For Power tools, NiCd batteries are used rather than lead acid batteries

1- Pack level

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Lead Acid LIB


> U

S$ 1

0 B

> U

S$ 7

B


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LI-ION CELL & PACK MARKET DETAILS

Li-ion cell market (B$) Li-ion Pack market1 (B$)

99

1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included

2- Others: Batteries for Power tools, E-bikes, Industrial, medical…

S2: Chinese EV market explosion

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis 2015

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025

Others (2)

Automotive

Portable

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025

Others (2)

Automotive

Portable

Portable: from 29 to 65 GWh

Automotive: from 10 to 60 GWh / S2: 100 GWh

Others: from 7 to 32 GWh

2014 -2025


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TAKEAWAYS

100

Others: Automatic handling equipment, forklifts, back-up, UPS, Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, …

Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable PCs & electronic devices (smartphones, tablets) For HEV, the battery technology is today the NiMH In 2012, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li-ion P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion: 6 B$ market in 2015 - 11 B$ in 2020 & 15 B$ in 2025 EV expectations attract large Chemical companies New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards HEV will account for less than 5% of the automotive sales in 2020 P-HEV & EV < 2% by 2020 Huge Chinese Market appears in 2014: to be followed ! Micro-hybrid will achieve >50% Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2025 in volume & value A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteries New LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS: CAGR > 15% in the next 15 years In 2020, Energy storage will represent less than 5% of the total battery market

Battery Market 2010-2025

CAGR = +10%

RECHARGEABLE BATTERY

MARKET WORLDWIDE

2000-2025

2000 2010 2020 2025

MW

h Others

LIB

NiMH

NiCd

Lead Acid

2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025

Lead Acid (+4%) NiCd (-6%)NiMH (-6%) LIB for 3C (+1%)LIB for xEV (+10%) LIB for Others* (+11%)Others

25 B$

54B$

64 B$

83 B$

> 100 B$

280 GWh

380 GWh

575 GWh

775 GWh

14

12

52

(CAGR 2014-2025)

16

(Pack level) 4,3

60B$


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THANK YOU

Christophe PILLOT

AVICENNE ENERGY

[email protected]

Phone: +33 1 47 78 46 00

Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49

101

About

AVICENNE ENERGY

AVICENNE ENERGY

JANUARY 2015

Christophe PILLOT

[email protected]

+33(0)1 4778 4600


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AVICENNE PROFILE

Creation: 1992, by Ali MADANI

Headquarter: Paris

Liaison Office: Japan, USA

AVICENNE Energy Director: Christophe Pillot

5 consultants A Madani C Pillot JP Salvat X Zhang A Yassari

Information for Growth - Powering your company’s market strategy

with in-depth research

104

The Rechargeable Battery market

23rd Edition

Customized

survey


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OUR BUSINESS STORY

105

1992 •AVICENNE Creation

1994

•AVICENNE advised French Industry Ministry on the European battery business opportunities

•AVICENNE open its office in JAPAN

1999 •« BATTERIES » congress 1st edition in Paris

2003 •AVICENNE work on the due diligence process for the sales of SAFT by ALCATEL

2008 •AVICENNE: expert witness in the NTT-Hydro Quebec conflict

2009 •AVICENNE presented its market forecasts to industrials (CIAPS) in Beijing – China

2010 •Avicenne developed partnership with BATTERY JAPAN •20thEdition of “The rechargeable battery market worldwide 2010-2020

2011 •AVICENNE Energy division is created •13th Edition of BATTERIES Congress

2012 •21st Edition of “The rechargeable battery market worldwide 2011-2025

2014

•23rd Edition of our Battery Market Syrvey

•16th Edition of BATTERIES Congress in NICE, France

• 1 month mission in China: Qinghai EV Rally, CIBF, 50 companies visited


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OUR METHODOLOGY

MARKET & STRATEGIC ANALYSIS

Primary Research Secondary Research

Executive Interviews Vendor Briefings Product Demos and Tours

Company News & Financials Technology & Product Specs Government Data Economic, Demographic Data

Consumer Surveys Business Leader Surveys

Case Studies Reference Customers

Qualitative Quantitative Strategic

Business Models & Trends Technology Issues Policy & Regulatory Factors Competitive Landscape Profiles of Key Players

Company News & Financials Technology & Product Specs Government Data Economic, Demographic Data

SWOT Analysis Gap Analysis Business Plan Value Proposition Due Diligence Merger & Acquisition

Track valuable Information's

Strategic Analysis

Presentation of the results

Q&A with customers

Customer Evaluation

INFORMATION COLLECTION

SUP

PLY

SI

DE

DEM

AN

D

SID

E


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METHODOLOGY: EXTENSIVE FIELD RESEARCH TO

RETRIEVE & CROSS CHECK INFORMATION

In Depth analysis Of applications

Cross Check Analysis

Battery Makers

OEM

Raw materials suppliers

Environment & recycling

BMS

Electronics

Substitution technologies

Conferences & Exhibitions

Top management contact network > 19 000 contacts


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CUSTOMIZED & MULTICLIENT SURVEY

FOR ALL THE VALUE CHAIN

Raw Materials

BMS & Electronics

Cooling Systems

Power Electronics

Batteries

Source : Photo from BASF


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MORE THAN 200 REFERENCES

WORLDWIDE 3M A123 AIR LIQUIDE AIR PRODUCT AHLSTROM ALCATEL AMPEREX (ATL) APPLIED MATERIALS ARKEMA AROS SECURITIES ARC ASHLAND ATL AMPEREX AT KEARNEY AUSTRIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY AXEON BAIN BASF BATTERY ASSOCIATION OF KOREA BAYER BLACK & DECKER BHP BILLITON BRAND LICENCING PARNERS (BLP) BOURNS BOSCH BOOZ BRUCKNER BUHLER GMBH BYD CABOT CALL2RECYCLE CAP X CATELLA CARBONE LORRAINE CARLYLE CATELLA CATERPILLAR INC. CDN COBALT CEA/LITEN CELGARD CHEMETALL CHEMISHE FABRIK BUDENHEIM CIBA CIAPS CHINA COGEMA CONOCO PHILIPS CRU GROUP CSC CHALLENGE STRATEGY CHANGE DELTA DGA

DIALOG SEMICONDUCTOR DOW CHEMICAL DOW CORNING DUPONT DURACELL EDF ELECTRO ENERGY ENER 1 ENERGIZER EOLITE EPCOS OHG ERAMET ETC AB FACOM FALCON BRIDGE FAIRSHILD SEMICONDUCTOR FAMEART FIST FLORIDIENNE DE CHIMIE FMC FORTU POWER CELL FRANCE TELECOM FREUDENBERG VLIESSTOFFE SE & CO FRAUNHOFER INSTITUTE FULTON INNOVATION GAIA GIL IMPORT BATTERIES LTD. GS MELCOTEC HC STARCK HILTI HITACHI MAXELL HOLLINGSWORTH & VOSE CIE HONEYWELL HPL (HIGH POWER LITHIUM) HUTCHINSON ICC NEXERGY IER IGL EXPORT. INTERNATIONAL COMPONENT CORP. INTERNATIONAL RECTIFIER INTEK INTEL INTERSIL INCO ISRAEL CONSULTING ITRI ITS JBC JETRO JOHNSON CONTROLS

JOHNSON MATTHEY KODAK KRUGER LAZARD LECLANCHÉ LEGRAND LG CHEMICAL LION CELLS LITTLE FUSE LILIPUCIAN LYNAS CORP MATSUSHITA MICROSOFT MTI MICRO FUEL CELLS MOLTECH MOLYCORP MOMENTIVE MOSAID TECHNOLOGIES MOTOROLA MUNSTER UNIVERSITY NANOCYL NCCP – RUSSIA NEC NITECH NKKPC NORILSK NICKEL NOVALED NTK POWERDEX OLIVER WYMAN OMG INC ORANGE OSKR PANASONIC PHILIPS PHOTON PK & WISE PLEXTRONICS POWER GENIX PRAYON PRISMARK PSA RAYOVAC RECHARGE RENAULT RHODIA ROLAND BERGER ROSKILL INFORMATION SERVICES SAFT SAGENTIA SAINT GOBAIN

SAKTI SAMSUNG SDI SANIK SCHRODER VENTURE SCOTENT ENTREPRISE SEPCELL SFPZ SHENZHEN HIGH POWER TECHNOLOGY SCHOTT AG SKC SQM SVE - DASSAULT SOLVAY SONY STIBAT STORCK STRATEGY ANALYSIS TERRAROSSA CAPITAL TIGER GLOBAL TODA KOGYO TOTAL TOTAL WIRELESS SOLUTION TOYO TOYOTA TREOFAN TYCO UMICORE UNIROSS URALELEMENT US NAVY VARTA VOLTRACK WACKER CHEMIE AG WARBURGPINCUS WILDCAT WORLD INDUSTRIAL INFORMATION CENTER WR GRACE & CIE YASLAMEN ZEBRA ZPOWER

109


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SPEAKER, CHAIRMAN OR WORKSHOP

MODERATOR

Extended Battery Life Working Group on battery technology development for mobile devices Meeting Tokyo Japan , Dec 2014 – 1h30 Presentation “The battery market for mobile 2013-2025”

BATTERIES 2014, FRANCE – (1999-2014) Owner, chairman & speaker “The battery market 2013-2025”

INTERNATIONAL Li-ion BATTERY SUMMIT – Dec 2013, Shenzhen, China “The Li-ion battery raw materials market 2012-2020”

AABC Europe, Mainz (2012, 2013, 2015) “The Lithium ion raw material battery market 2010-2020”

THE INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR - FLORIDA Fort Lauderdale, Florida , March 2014 – 2h tutorial

“HEV, PHEV & EV market 2010-2020 ; Battery is the key” (From 2004 to 2014)

EVER 2009, 2011, MONACO “Challenges for EV market in Europe”

EVS 2011, 2013 “Battery market for automotive industry”

CIAPS (China Industrial Association of Power sources), BEIJING, Dec 2009 “Advanced battery market & raw materials worldwide”

Advanced Battery for Vehicles, IQPC, Frankfort, 2009, 2010, 2012 Chairman & speaker,

“The battery business 2009-2020”

EET-2008 European Ele-Drive, MOTOR SHOW GENEVA, International Advanced Mobility Forum – Geneva Motor Show (Professor Gaston Maggetto Award: C. Pillot as the best rated paper & presentation by EET-2008 Scientific Reviewing Committee)

“The HEV & EV market trends & main challenges”

China Industry Battery Fair 2006, 2010, 2014 “The Chinese battery Industry”

…

Tens of INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCES per year

https://powersources.net/florida/28th.html


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AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO

HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS

HEV powered by Lithium ion battery

forecasts from 2008 to 2014

EV sold, in million units, worldwide,

2010 - 2020

0

1

2

3

4

5

2010 2015 2020

Nu

mb

er o

f EV

so

ld w

orl

dw

ide

( M

illio

n)

Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011

111

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mill

ion

HEV

po

we

red

by

LIB

IIT 2007

IIT 2008

IIT 2009

IIT 2010

AVICENNE 2007

REALITY

AAB (2012)

AVICENNE 2007-2012


IIT (MARCH 2010)


DEUTSCHE BANK (2012)

IIT (MARCH 2011)


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BATTERIES 2015

3 days congress in France (Paris, Nice, Cannes)

17th Edition (first edition in 1999)

500 attendees

40 Booths Battery makers, raw materials suppliers, IC & BMS suppliers, tests, machining, coating,

80 international experts: Researchers, industrial process, marketing, financials,

www.batteriesevent.com


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SUMMARY

A small team dedicated on the battery industry since almost 20 years

Working with large group worldwide: FMC, Umicore, Dupont, Dow, Panasonic, LG, Samsung, JCI, Nokia, Bosch, Siemens, Toyota, Renault, …

Synthetic presentation to management & CEO of major groups

We will help and support your growth

Knowledge

Methodology

Expert Network

Flexibility


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THANK YOU

Christophe PILLOT

AVICENNE ENERGY

[email protected]

Phone: +33 1 47 78 46 00

Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49

114

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