The Registrar General's Quarterly Return for England and Wales. Third Quarter, 1960.Review by: N. H. CarrierJournal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General), Vol. 125, No. 4 (1962), pp. 654-655Published by: Wiley for the Royal Statistical SocietyStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2982648 .

Accessed: 28/06/2014 15:35

Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at .http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp

.JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range ofcontent in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new formsof scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org.

.

Wiley and Royal Statistical Society are collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access toJournal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General).

http://www.jstor.org

This content downloaded from 141.101.201.172 on Sat, 28 Jun 2014 15:35:26 PMAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions

654 Reviews [Part 4,

The marriage rate at 15*0 (14*9 in 1959 and 15*0 in 1958) was one of the lowest since marriage registration began in 1837. This low rate is due to the ageing of the popula- tion and depletion of the unmarried by the high age-specific marriage rates of the last two decades, since age-specific rates are still at an almost unprecedented high level; indeed for spinsters they are probably higher than ever before. It does appear, however, that the sex ratio, which has become unfavourable for males (i.e. there are more unmarried males than unmarried females some 2-3 years younger, from whom they most customarily seek their brides), is at last checking marriage rates for bachelors. For some age groups, the bachelor marriage rate did rise from 1959 to 1960, but for the age group 20-24 (the group into which more than half bachelor grooms fall) a small decline was at last registered (1960 rate 157-8; 1959, 159-9; 1958, 158-3). This may well herald a rise in the marriage age for bachelors or a decrease in the proportion marrying. The marriage age of spinsters will, however, have to decline still further before the "momentum generated" is lost and a stable state is reached.

The birth rate at 17-1 (1959, 16-4) was the highest since 1948 (17-8) and represents a continuation in the rising trend which started in 1955. The detailed fertility tabulations show that, with few exceptions, this rise is shared by women, whatever their age at marriage and present duration of marriage. For example, women celebrating their tenth wedding anniversary in 1960, who had married at ages under 20 years, had by then had 2-5 children on average, more than any marriage cohort since those married in 1921. Similar com- parisons at this duration apply to those marrying at various ages over 20 years. Owing to the growing tendency to concentrate childbearing into the early years of marriage, the average family size of recent cohorts at durations over 10 years compare progressively less favourably with those of past marriage cohorts.

A more liberal attitude to illegitimate children was recorded with the extended provi- sions for legitimation (of children born illegitimate) contained in the 1959 Legitimacy Act, which came into operation on October 29th, 1959. In consequence, the number of re- registrations of the births of legitimated persons in 1960 (6,506) was more than double that of any recent year (2,905 in 1959; 2,636 in 1958).

A new feature regarding the adoption of children is the granting of provisional orders to enable persons to remove children from the country to adopt them abroad. These have been granted since April 1st, 1959, and 71 were granted in 1959 and 207 in 1960. These numbers compare with the current rate of granting of "full" adoption orders, currently running at 13,000-15,000 per year.

The persistence for so long of the rising trend in the birth rate has led the Government Actuary and the Registrar General to revise upwards the fertility assumptions on which their annual population projections of England and Wales are based. The current projec- tions show the population of all ages to increase to 55,646,000 in the year 2000. Despite the revised fertility assumpti9ns, the proportion of children under age 15 rises only slightly from 22*8 per cent. in 1960 to 23-8 per cent. in the year 2000. The proportion of "retired" persons (males over 65 and females over 60) rises from 14-9 per cent. in 1960 to 17-4 per cent. in 1980 and thereafter declines to 15-6 per cent. in the year 2000. From 1960 to 2000 there is a shift in the age structure of the population of working age (males 15-64, females 15-59)-those under age 45 increase from 39-5 per cent. to 41-3 per cent. whilst those over age 45 decrease from 22-8 per cent. to 19-3 per cent.

N. H. CARRIER

24. The Registrar General's Quarterly Return for England and Wales. Third Quarter, 1960. London, H.M.S.O., 1961. 20 p. 9k'. 2s. 6d.

The marriage rate for the quarter (191 compared with 18-0 for the same quarter of 1960) was the highest third quarter rate since 1951 (20 2). During the period 1956-59, the marriage rate declined sharply-mainly due to the depletion of the unmarried population

This content downloaded from 141.101.201.172 on Sat, 28 Jun 2014 15:35:26 PMAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions

1962] Reviews 655

by the generally high marriage rates of the last 20 years-but there has been a slight recovery in the last two years. The high rate recorded for the third quarter of 1961 is partly explained by this trend. In addition, the dominant features of seasonal trends in marriage for the last 15 years have been concentrations in the first quarter (the most advantageous time to marry from Income Tax considerations when the bride is not working) and in the third quarter (the best when she is working). The third quarter 1961 rate may therefore be explained partly by an increasing tendency for wives to work.

The birth rate for the quarter at 17-6 (1960, 17-2) exceeded all corresponding rates since 1949 and continued the rising trend that started in 1955. The death rate at 9 5 was less than the rate for the third quarter of 1960 (9 8) but exceeded that for 1959 (9 0). Once again a record was set by the infant mortality rate (18 1-previous lowest was 19-4 in third quarter 1959) and this is now so common that it is too easily taken for granted. It is, however, a matter for congratulation that, although the rate is so low that there is little room for improvement, small gains continue to be made. The still-birth rate (18-3) was also a record low (1960, 19-3).

Poliomyelitis notifications, which had shown a spectacular fall as the vaccination campaign got into full swing, showed a rise over the third quarter figure in the previous year. (Notifications in third quarter: 447 in 1959; 138 in 1960; 261 in 1961.)

Deaths from transport accidents in the quarter showed some improvement over the figures for the previous year (males: 1960, 1,375; 1961, 1,232; females: 1960, 464; 1961, 425) but other accidental deaths showed little change (males: 1960, 1,101; 1961, 1,135; females: 1960, 1,047; 1961, 1,004).

N. H. CARRIER

25. Road Risks of the Elderly: The Dangers to which they are exposed, and how they may reduce the Risk of Serious Injury. By G. Prys Williams and Harold S. Goodwin. London, Magazines & Publications, Ltd, 1961. 36 p. 9a". 3s.

This booklet of 36 pages, which is accompanied by 14 pages of diagrams, commissioned by the Christian Economic and Social Research Foundation, is based on data from the Ministry of Transport, the Road Research Laboratory, D.S.I.R., and the British Market Research Bureau. It gives the results of detailed analyses of road accidents to people over 60 years of age and suggests to them how they might behave in order to reduce their chance of being involved in road accidents.

Frequencies are given of the number of deaths, serious injuries, and other injuries to pedestrians, pedal cyclists, motorcyclists, other drivers and passengers, in the age-groups under 60, 60-69, 70-79, 80 and over. In addition, the results of a survey of the numbers of pedestrians of various age-groups who were on the road at different times of day are given. Frequency distributions of accidents by age of road user involved have been published, but the reviewer knows of no previous survey of ages of pedestrians using the roads of the age-groups under consideration.

The assembled data make it possible to deduce some results of interest: (1) The greater the age the greater the likelihood of death or serious injury when

involved in an accident, e.g. whilst the proportion of injuries that are fatal is only 2 per cent. for motorcyclists under 60, it is 13 per cent. for the few motorcyclists over 80. The corresponding figures for pedestrians are 2 5 per cent. and 13 per cent. and for pedal cyclists 1 2 per cent. and 7 5 per cent.

(2) The relative risks of being involved in a fatal accident, taking what the authors call pedestrian density into account, are greater for men than for women, are generally least between 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. in the morning in the summer, and at a maximum between 5 p.m. and 8 p.m. in the winter and autumn. The risk for a male pedestrian over 80 between 5 p.m. and 8 p.m. in the evening during October to December is 21 times the risk of a female pedestrian 65-69 between 10 a.m. and 5 p.m. in spring and summer, i.e. April to September.

This content downloaded from 141.101.201.172 on Sat, 28 Jun 2014 15:35:26 PMAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions