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THE REPORT

December 2017

Chris Angle

Stock-Market-Direction.net

a

RITE Report Chris Angle, Editor

222 Boston Post Road, #244

Waterford, CT 06385

Tel. 203/253-2008

Email: [email protected]

http://www.stock-market-direction.net/

Custom Research: Please note that custom economic and/or macro

investment research and wealth advisory services are

available on request.

The RITE Report

The following RITE Report generates indices from the monthly compilation of business,

economic, & political news snippets from the Wall Street Journal, IBD, U.S.

Government, and other sources.

mailto:[email protected]


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PART 1 - STOCKS

1. Macro-Economic Snippets w/Index

2. Indicators for Technical Analysis

3. Overall Investment Strategy Index

4. Summary

PART 2 – HEDGING

1. Hedging and Inflation Snippets

2. Hedging Summary

11/02

BLS: In manufacturing, productivity decreased 5.0 percent and

unit labor costs increased 6.2 percent.

11/03

IBD: The unemployment decline reflected a big tumble in the

labor force participation rate, to 62.7% from 63.1%.

IBD: Average hourly wages dipped one cent on the month,

rising just 2.4% from a year ago.

11/04

IBD: There's About 0% Chance of A Permanent 20%

Corporate Tax Rate

11/14

WSJ: China’s Indicators Point to Slowing Economy - Growth

in factory output, fixed-asset investment and retail sales all

decelerated in October

WSJ: Demand for Construction Workers Soft, Even After

Hurricanes - Number of construction-job openings in

September down from August, in line with recent average.

11/15

BLS: Real average hourly earnings decreased 0.1 percent in

October, seasonally adjusted. Average hourly earnings were

unchanged, and CPI-U increased 0.1 percent. Real average

weekly earnings decreased 0.1 percent over the month.

11/22

US CENSUS: Advance Report on Durable Goods

Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders - New

orders for manufactured durable goods in October decreased

$2.8 billion or 1.2 percent to $236.0 billion.

11/23

CPB: The CPB World Trade Monitor shows that the volume of

world trade was stagnant in September, having increased 0.7%

in August (initial estimate: 1.2%).

12/04

U.S. CENSUS: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and

Orders - New orders for manufactured goods in October

decreased $0.3 billion or 0.1 percent to $479.6 billion.

12/05

US CENSUS: Quarterly Financial Report - Retail Trade -

Seasonally adjusted after-tax profits for retail corporations with

assets of $50 million and over were $20.3 billion for the third

quarter 2017 (the 3 months ending October 31, 2017), down

$1.7 (+/- 0.0) billion from second quarter 2017 (the 3 months

ending July 31, 2017).

BLS: Productivity increased 3.0 percent in the nonfarm

business sector in the third quarter of 2017; unit labor costs

declined 0.2 percent (seasonally adjusted annual rates).

Total of Negative General Business

and Economic News Snippets: 12

T h e R I T E R e p o r t

MACRO-ECONOMIC SNIPPETS

A) Negative Economic and General Business

Data Snippets

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11/01

U.S. CENSUS: Total construction activity for September

2017 ($1,219.5 billion) was 0.3 percent (+/-1.3 percent)*

above the revised August 2017 ($1,216.0 billion).

11/02

U.S. CENSUS: Total construction activity for September

2017 ($1,219.5 billion) was 0.3 percent (+/-1.3 percent)*

above the revised August 2017 ($1,216.0 billion).

BLS: Productivity increased 3.0 percent in the nonfarm

business sector in the third quarter of 2017; unit labor costs

increased 0.5 percent (seasonally adjusted annual rates).

11/03

BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 261,000 in

October, and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1

percent. Employment increased in food services and drinking

places, professional and business services, manufacturing, and

health care.

U.S. CENSUS: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and

Orders - New orders for manufactured goods in September

increased $6.5 billion or 1.4 percent to $478.5 billion.

11/07

IBD: The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index rose 6.6% in

November to 53.6

11/14

WSJ: U.S. Manufacturing Picks Up Pace While Waiting for

Donald Trump’s Policy Promises - Makers of everything from

bulldozers to food products are on an upswing as production,

spending and sentiment improve.

WSJ: Steven Mnuchin Says Trump Won’t Bend on Corporate

Tax Rate of 20%

WSJ: German, Italian Growth Add Fuel to Eurozone Recovery -

German GDP grew 3.3% in the third quarter in annualized

terms, beating estimates.

WSJ: Japan Extends Growth Streak to Seven Consecutive

Quarters

11/15

U.S. CENSUS: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food

Services - U.S. retail and food services sales for October were

$486.6 billion, an increase of 0.2 percent (+/-0.5%)* from the

previous month.

11/17

U.S. CENSUS: New Residential Construction - Privately-

owned housing starts in October 2017 were at a seasonally

adjusted annual rate of 1,290,000. This is 13.7 percent (+/-

10.5%) above the revised September 2017 estimate of

1,135,000.

U.S. CENSUS: Advance Report: Quarterly Services Survey

The estimate of U.S. selected services total revenue for the third

quarter of 2017, not adjusted for seasonal variation or price

changes, was $3,720.3 billion, an increase of 1.2 percent (+/-

0.4 percent) from the second quarter of 2017 and up 5.3 percent

(+/- 3.2 percent) from the third quarter of 2016. The first quarter

of 2017 to second quarter of 2017 percentage change was

revised from the preliminary estimate of 3.2 percent (+/- 0.6

percent) to 3.0 percent (+/- 0.4 percent).

11/21

IBD: Sales of previously owned U.S. homes rose to a four-

month high, indicating demand was firming at the start of the

quarter as the impact from hurricanes faded, according to a

National Association of Realtors report released Tuesday.


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B) Positive Economic and General Business News

Snippets


IBD: Existing-Home Sales Highlights: Contract closings rose

2% m/m to a 5.48 million annual rate (est. 5.4 million). Median

sales price increased 5.5% vs. a year earlier to $247,000.

Inventory of available properties fell 10.4% vs. a year earlier to

1.8 million, the lowest level for October since data began in

1999.

11/22

WSJ: U.S. Consumer Sentiment Pulled Back in November -

The University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index was

98.5 in November, up from a preliminary reading of 97.8 but

down from 100.7 in October - A measure of U.S. consumer

sentiment pulled back in November from a 13-year high,

signaling solid economic optimism headed into the holiday

shopping season.

11/29

BEA: Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an

annual rate of 3.3 percent in the third quarter of 2017, according

to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic

Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.1

percent.

BEA: Profits from current production (corporate profits with

inventory valuation adjustment and capital consumption

adjustment) increased $91.6 billion in the third quarter,

compared with an increase of $14.4 billion in the second

quarter.

11/30

BEA: Personal income increased $65.1 billion (0.4 percent) in

October according to estimates released today by the Bureau of

Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)

increased $66.1 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption

expenditures (PCE) increased $34.4 billion (0.3 percent).

FRED: Velocity of M2 Money Stock (M2V) Q3 2017: 1.428

(up from 1.425)

12/01

U.S. CENSUS: Construction Spending - Total construction

activity for October 2017 ($1,241.5 billion) was 1.4 percent (+/-

1.5 percent)* above the revised September 2017 ($1,224.6

billion).

12/05

U.S. CENSUS: Quarterly Financial Report - Manufacturing,

Mining, Wholesale Trade, and Selected Service Industries -

Manufacturing corporations' seasonally adjusted after-tax

profits were $147.4 billion for the third quarter of 2017, up $3.7

(+/- 0.3) billion from second quarter of 2017.

12/06 BLS: In manufacturing, productivity decreased 4.4 percent and

unit labor costs increased 4.8 percent.

12/07 U.S. CENSUS: The estimate of U.S. selected services total

revenue for the third quarter of 2017, not adjusted for seasonal

variation or price changes, was $3,717.6 billion, an increase of

1.1 percent (+/- 0.2 percent) from the second quarter of 2017

and up 5.2 percent (+/- 3.2 percent) from the third quarter of

2016. The second quarter of 2017 to third quarter of 2017

percentage change was revised from the advance estimate of 1.2

percent (+/- 0.4 percent).

12/08 U.S. CENSUS: October 2017 sales of merchant wholesalers

were $484.6 billion, up 0.7 percent (+/- 0.5 percent) from last

month. End-of-month inventories were $605.3 billion, down 0.5

percent (+/- 0.4 percent) from last month.

BLS: Payroll employment increases by 228,000 in November;

unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%

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Total of Positive General Business and

Economic News Snippets: 26

MACRO-ECONOMIC SNIPPETS

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2016 2017

Table of Positive v. Negative General Economic & Business News

% Neg

% Pos


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Indicator Trend/Comment

(DAILY) - HIGH YIELD BONDS (HYG)

Downticked (11/06 - 87.99; 12/08 - 87.35) Negative

(DAILY) - iSHARES SELECT DIVIDEND (DVY)

Up (11/06 - 94.76; 12/08 - 99.04) Positive

12/01 - PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX

Mfg still Expanding: 58.2 (although rate decreased from 58.7) Positive

12/01 - CONSTRUCTION SPENDING (Census Bureau) Up 1.4% month to month Positive

Year over year + 2.9% Positive

Combined: Positive

12/04 - MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, & ORDERS (Census Bureau):

New orders for manufactured goods in October decreased $0.3

billion or 0.1 percent to $479.6 billion. Negative

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS/INDICATOR SUMMARY


12/05 - (BLS) UNEMPLOYMENT

- Unemployment Rate (BLS): Downtick at 4.1%: (Positive)

- Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate (BLS): 62.7 (Neutral)

- Employment-Population Ratio (BLS): Downtick 60.2% - 60.1% (Negative)

- 12/11 Employment Trends Index (Conference Board TM) Decreased (Negative)

Overall: Negative

12/06 - (BLS) PRODUCTIVITY:

Nonfarm Business Sector Neutral

- Productivity increased 3.0% percent; Positive

- Output + 4.1% Positive

Manufacturing

- Productivity decreased - 4.4% Negative

- Output: -1.1% Negative

12/05 - QUARTERLY FINANCIAL REPORT - MFG, MINING, WHOLESALE,

SERVICE (Census Bureau)

- Manufacturing corporations' seasonally adjusted after-tax profits were

$147.4 billion for the third quarter of 2017, up $3.7 (+/- 0.3) billion from

second quarter of 2017. Positive

11/13 - RETAIL SALES (U.S. Census) +0.2% from previous month: Positive

11/15 - MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES (Census Bureau):

U.S. total business sales were $1,389.7 billion, up 1.4 percent (+/- 0.2 percent)

from last month. + 1.4%: Positive

11/16 - INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX (INDPRO) - Positive

Uptick: 106.1469 Positive

(Year over Year) Positive



11/17 - NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION (U.S. Census): Neutral

(month over month) + 13.7% Positive

(yr over yr) - 2.9% Negative

11/20 - CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS ™ Increased: Positive

11/20 - CONFERENCE BOARD COINCIDENT ECONOMIC

INDICATORS ™ Increased: Positive

11/27 - NEW RESIDENTIAL SALES (U.S. Census Bureau) +6.2%

(Overall in uptrend) Positive

11/22 - Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories,

and Orders (U.S. Census Bureau) 1.2% Negative

11/21 - EXISTING HOME SALES (NAR) + 2.0%: Positive

11/29 - REAL GDP (BEA) + 3.3%: Positive

11/30 - PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES

(Dept of Commerce - BEA) + 0.3%: Positive

11/30 - PERSONAL INCOME (Dept of Commerce - BEA) + 0.4%: Positive

11/28 - CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (Confidence Board TM

) Increased: Positive

11/30 - RESTAURANT PERFORMANCE INDEX: 100.9 - Expanding: Positive

11/29 - Corporate Profits BEA Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory

valuation adjustment and capital consumption adjustment) increased $91.6 billion in the

third quarter, compared with an increase of $14.4 billion in the second quarter. Positive



Summary

Positive 17

Negative 4

Neutral 2

Scale:

0 = Neutral

+10 = High Opportunity Environment

-10 = Extreme Negative Risk Miasma

Effort, Risk, Freedom, Knowledge / Info Comments

1) Domestic Political Risk + 7 Good: A tax reduction package will pass

2) Tax Risk + 6 Taxes to go down but when is not clear

3) Individual Incentive (Freedom) + 8 Regulations are decreasing

4) Production of Knowledge + 6 Economy positive

5)Technical Analysis of the U.S. Stock Markets + 8 Market: Bullish

6) General Business & Economic Snippets + 7 Positive Snippets 84% down to 65%

7) Economic Indicators + 7 Slight Decrease: From 17/3/2 to

16 Pos; 4 Neg; 2 Neu

Sum of Total 49

Average of Total +7

RITE Strategy Index 85.0%

History of Strategy Index (Started 2009) Statistics noted before are approximate.

RITE INVESTMENT STRATEGY INDEX


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

2016 2017

History of Strategy Index (Started 2009) Statistics noted before are approximate.

Index % DJIA Gold Oil WSJ Dollar Index

Summary

Equity Market Conclusion:

Stocks: Stay Long

The RITE Index remains high.

T h e R I T E R e p o r t P

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RITE INVESTMENT STRATEGY INDEX

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HEDGING/INFLATION SNIPPETS T h e R I T E R e p o r t

Deflation Snippets 0/0%

None this month

Inflation Snippets 2/100%

11/14 BLS: The Producer Price Index for final demand

increased 0.4 percent in October, as prices for final

demand services rose 0.5 percent and the index for

final demand goods advanced 0.3 percent. The

final demand index increased 2.8 percent for the 12

months ended in October.

11/15

BLS: In October, the Consumer Price Index for All

Urban Consumers increased 0.1 percent seasonally

adjusted; rising 2.0 percent over the last 12

months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all

items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in

October (SA); up 1.8 percent over the year (NSA)

Inflation Table

(The RITE Report Issue Date is the first week of the month; Statistical Data is the latest closing price which is

noted in the WSJ on the close of the last day of the month, but the RITE Report does not represent that these

data are accurate.)

Month Inflatondata.com CRB

Annual Inflation Rate

2016

Sept 02 0.84% 179.99

Sept 30 1.06% 186.32

Nov 02 1.46% 184.29

Dec 01 1.64% 191.41

Dec 31 1.69% 192.512

2017

Feb 09 2.07% 192.756

Mar 01 2.50% 190.81

April 04 2.74% 185.59

May 2.38% 176.96

June 2.20% 176.30

June 30 1.87% 174.776

July 31 1.63 180.68

Sept 4 1.73% 180.95

October 6 1.94% 180.95

Nov 6 2.23% 192.57

Nov 15 .04%

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Inflation remains subdued

Gold: No call

Oil: No call

The U.S. Dollar: Stay Long (Economy to go up)

For your reference, we include a directory of:

The RITE Report Major Trade Advice Summary

Date Approx. Market Advice

Mrkt Level

2011

2011/04/01 12,376 Stocks Market to go sideways; end of bull.

2011/05/01 12,763 Stocks Take profits 55.4% Gain

2011/06/01 102.7 Oil Go Neutral 100.9% Gain

2011/06/01 12,441 Stocks Take profits (re-confirmation)

2011/07/01 USD Go short

2011/08/01 USD Cover the short; no direction

2011/08/01 12,240 Stocks Trading Range

2012

2012/03/01 107 Oil Go long

2012/05/01 104 Oil Go neutral 2.8% Loss

2012/06/01 12,772 Stocks Take profits; a downtrend started

2012/06/01 1,564 Gold Sell: Take profits 74.7% Gain

2012/07/01 1,604 Gold Buy: Go long

2012/08/01 13,090 Stocks Advised not to be in the Stock Market at all

2012/09/01 80.025 USD Go short

2012/11/01 13,096 Stocks Confirmation: Not to be in Stock Market


HEDGING SUMMARY P

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Date Approx. Market Advice

Mrkt Level

2013

2013/01/02 13,104.30 Stocks Go Long

2013/03/01 82.47 USD Index Take loss; go neutral

2013/05/31 15,115.57 Stocks - Take profits 15.3% Profit

2013/08/01 15,499.54 Stocks Go Long

2013/12/01 92.78 Oil Go Short

2014

2014/01/02 98.70 Oil Take off short: Go Neutral 6.38% Loss

2014/02/28 16,321.71 Stocks Take profit; go to cash 5.0% Increase

2014/03/01 16,532.61 Stocks Go long (Unrealized gain potential)

2014/10/31 1,173.5 Gold Sell (1,604 to 1,173.5 loss of 430.5) 36.8% loss

2015/01/30 1,283.0 Gold Go long

2016/04/04 35.32 Oil Go long

2016/07/01 49.05 Oil Take Profit - 38% Gain

2016/12/02 1,176.3 Gold Sell - Loss 8.3%

2016/12/02. 91.50 WSJ Dollar Index Go Long

Presently 2017/12/11 Last Seen - Mid-day

Stocks (DJIA) 24,358.26 Stay Long (Unrealized gain potential)

Gold 1,248.2 No call

US Dollar 87.18 Stay Long (Unrealized loss potential)

Oil 57.94 No Call


Please note that custom economic and/or macro investment research and advisory services are available on request.

RITE Report

222 Boston Post Rd., #244

Waterford, CT 06385

Tel. 203/253-2008

Email: [email protected]


(The RITE Report's name was derived from the acronym of the four variables

inherent in all economic transactions; Risk, Information/Knowledge, Time, and

Effort. Of course, this would be for a service, and if the product were a material

good, there would be an additional factor of Material - or Land as the economist

would say. See The Philosophical Equations of Economics at

www.philosophypublishing.com for further info on this subject.)

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CUSTOM RESEARCH T h e R I T E R e p o r t

mailto:[email protected]


http://www.philosophypublishing.com/

For Your Reference

Chris Angle is the author of:

These books may be viewed at: http://www.philosophypublishing.com

Chris Angle is also the host of The Philosophical Angle, a TV and Podcast Program, which discusses concepts in current media.

http://www.youtube.com/user/philosophypublishing

The Nature of Aesthetics

978-0-9661126-4-1

Defining Ethics

Good & Evil

978-0-9661126-5-8

Truth and the Nature of Decisions

978-0-9661126-6-5

The Philosophical Equations of

Economics

978-0-9661126-3-4


http://www.youtube.com/user/philosophypublishing

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contracts, or securities, and is intended for informational purposes only. Any offer for any investment product will be made solely by the appropriate disclosure document or private placement memorandum.

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