the ro le of biomass in the uk energy system t sec-biosys:
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The ro le of biomass in the UK energy system T SEC-BIOSYS: A whole systems approach to bioenergy demand and supply www.tsec-biosys.ac.uk Ausilio Bauen Imperial College London. Biomass role in the UK energy futures The Royal Society, London: 28 th & 29 th July 2009. Introduction. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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The role of biomass in the UK energy system
TSEC-BIOSYS: A whole systems approach to bioenergy demand and supply
www.tsec-biosys.ac.uk
Ausilio BauenImperial College London
Biomass role in the UK energy futures The Royal Society, London: 28th & 29th July 2009
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TSEC BiosysTSEC BiosysIntroduction
TSEC-Biosys has aimed to improve the understanding of: The UK energy crop potential Its spatial distribution Its costs The competitiveness of energy crops and other biomass in
providing future energy services
Policymakers, industry and other stakeholders need to have visibility of these issues to develop strategies and positions
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Modelling optimal distribution of energy crops and their potential
Willow and Poplar favoured in the West, Miscanthus in the East Average yield is about 12 odt/ha/yr Average yield similar on ALCs 1 – 4, significantly reduced on ALC5
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TSEC BiosysTSEC BiosysUK energy crop cost distribution
Significant potential between £45 and £65 /odt
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TSEC BiosysTSEC BiosysUK energy crop supply cost curves
Short term deployment on c. 650 kha 8 Modt Average cost £50.1 – £55.6 /odt; 95th percentile cost £53.8 – £57.4 /odt For a more more even distribution average cost increases 10% - 20%
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TSEC BiosysTSEC BiosysThe competitiveness of UK energy crops
UK energy crops likely to be competitive with imported solid biomass – import price estimated to range between £60 and £120 /odt (strongly dependent on international market conditions and bulk international transport costs)
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The contribution of bioenergy to UK final energy demand
Final energy share up to about 15% in 2050 and 8% in 2020 Strong ramp up to 2020; up to 1/3 of solid biomass could be UK energy
crops Bulk of final use in heat (38% in 2050 and 13% in 2020), important
share of transport (8% in 2050 and 7% in 2020), small share of electricity (1% in 2050 and 2% in 2020)
Global sustainability scenario
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The contribution of bioenergy to UK final energy demand
Solid biomass provides the bulk of the resource Energy crops assumed to ramp up to a sustainably exploitable area of 1.5 Mha UK resource contributes over 1/3 Range of technologies combustion, gasification, pyrolysis, AD, fermentation
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BIOSYS 4: BIOMASS RESOURCE GRAPH
Domestic starch and oil crops
Domestic grass (dry) biomass (crops and residues)
Domestic wood (dry) biomass (crops, residues, “clean”waste)
Domestic “wet” biomass (OFMSW, food and drink waste from industry, sludge…)
Imported wood biomass (pellets, chips)
Imported bio-ethanol
Imported bio-oil (pyrolysis, vegetable)
Imported bio-diesel
Global sustainability scenario
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Scenarios vary with environmental and energy security considerations
Significant contribution in all scenarios, but with reallocation between final end uses
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Transport bio-diesel
Transport bio-ethanol
Bio-electricity
Industrial bio-heat
Service bio-heat
Residential bio-heat
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Transport bio-diesel
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Bio-electricity
Industrial bio-heat
Service bio-heat
Residential bio-heat
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Transport bio-diesel
Transport bio-ethanol
Bio-electricity
Industrial bio-heat
Service bio-heat
Residential bio-heat
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Transport bio-diesel
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Bio-electricity
Industrial bio-heat
Service bio-heat
Residential bio-heat
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TSEC BiosysTSEC BiosysConclusions
Energy crops planted on 1.5 Mha of land could provide about 2.6% of UK primary energy need in 2020 (based on static yields)
They could provide 3/4 of the biomass resource needed to meet the UK’s RES heat and electricity biomass target
Agricultural and forestry residues and organic wastes could at least double the potential
Imports of solid biomass and liquid fuels can grow substantially Overall a biomass can be a significant least cost solution to a low C
energy future RES proposes supply and demand side incentives to help ramp up But ramp up and sustained deployment needs to be backed by:
an understanding of the constraints and risks developments in agronomy, infrastructure, technologies and planning encouraging best and sustainable use of resources an informed industry broader stakeholder buy in
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Thank you for your attention!
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www.tsec-biosys.ac.uk