the road back towards full employment: sizing the uk jobs gap
DESCRIPTION
Resolution Foundation analysis of the size of the UK jobs gap. First presented at event on The road back towards full employment 23 May 2013 http://www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/road-back-fuller-employment/TRANSCRIPT
The Road Back Towards Full Employment:Sizing the UK jobs gap
James PlunkettResolution Foundation
www.resolutionfoundation.org@resfoundation
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
#fullemployment
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• Different (and easier!) question:– How far have things fallen since 2008?– How long might a recovery take?
Challenges accepted wisdom:
• ‘The jobs recovery is well under way’ – there’s a very long way to go• ‘The hit to employment has been far weaker in this recession’ – only in its
depth, not its duration• ‘Working hours have been squeezed’ – yes in some ways, not in others
How far away are we from a full jobs recovery?……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
#fullemployment
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The number of jobs in the UK economy has recovered to pre-2008 levels
Number of jobs in the UK economyChange from Mar-May 2008, thousands of jobs
122,000 more jobs than in 2008
20082008
20082009
20092009
20092010
20102010
20102011
20112011
20112012
20122012
20122013
-1,400
-1,200
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
200
Number of jobs
Jobs
(tho
usan
ds)
#fullemployment
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
But once we consider population growth, a large jobs gap has opened up
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..Number of jobs in the UK economy and UK ‘jobs gap’Change from Mar-May 2008, thousands of jobs
930,000 jobs short of 2008
employment rate
20082008
20082009
20092009
20092010
20102010
20102011
20112011
20112012
20122012
20122013
-1,400
-1,200
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
200
Number of jobs Jobs gap controlling for population growth
Jobs
(tho
usan
ds)
#fullemployment
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Under any realistic scenario the jobs recovery has a long way to run
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..The UK ‘jobs gap’ under different recovery scenariosChange from Mar-May 2008, thousands of jobs
2008 2008 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018
-1400
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
Jobs gap
Jobs
gap
(tho
usan
ds)
#fullemployment
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Under any realistic scenario the jobs recovery has a long way to run
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..The UK ‘jobs gap’ under different recovery scenariosChange from Mar-May 2008, thousands of jobs
2008 2008 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018
-1400
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
Jobs gap Repeating the 1994-99 jobs boom
Jobs
gap
(tho
usan
ds)
#fullemployment
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Under any realistic scenario the jobs recovery has a long way to run
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..The UK ‘jobs gap’ under different recovery scenariosChange from Mar-May 2008, thousands of jobs
2008 2008 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018
-1400
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
Jobs gap Repeating the 1994-99 jobs boomJobs boom + public sector job cuts
Jobs
gap
(tho
usan
ds)
#fullemployment
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Under any realistic scenario the jobs recovery has a long way to run
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..The UK ‘jobs gap’ under different recovery scenariosChange from Mar-May 2008, thousands of jobs
2008 2008 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018
-1400
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
Jobs gap Repeating the 1994-99 jobs boomJobs boom + public sector job cuts OBR March 2013 forecast
Jobs
gap
(tho
usan
ds)
#fullemployment
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
This time around the decline has been shallower – but is now on course to be longer
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..Decline in employment rate compared to past recessionsPercentage point fall in employment rate from onset of employment downturn
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
2008
Years after start of employment downturn
Decl
ine
in e
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
(ppt
s)
#fullemployment
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Decline in employment rate compared to past recessionsPercentage point fall in employment rate from onset of employment downturn
This time around the decline has been shallower – but is now on course to be longer
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1990 2008
Years after start of employment downturn
Decl
ine
in e
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
(ppt
s)
#fullemployment
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Decline in employment rate compared to past recessionsPercentage point fall in employment rate from onset of employment downturn
This time around the decline has been shallower – but is now on course to be longer
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1979 1990 2008
Years after start of employment downturn
Decl
ine
in e
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
(ppt
s)
#fullemployment
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Decline in employment rate compared to past recessionsPercentage point fall in employment rate from onset of employment downturn
This time around the decline has been shallower – but is now on course to be longer
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1979 1990 2008 Repeating 1990s jobs boom OBR
Years after start of employment downturn
Decl
ine
in e
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
(ppt
s)
#fullemployment
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
The UK’s ageing workforce is central to achieving a recovery in employment
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
2008200920092010201120112012201320132014201520152016201720172018
-1400
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
Jobs gap Late 1990s OBR March 2013
Jobs
gap
(tho
usan
ds)
Aged 16+
The UK ‘jobs gap’ under different recovery scenariosChange from Mar-May 2008, thousands of jobs
#fullemployment
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
The UK’s ageing workforce is central to achieving a recovery in employment
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
2008200920092010201120112012201320132014201520152016201720172018
-1400
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
Jobs gap Late 1990sOBR March 2013 Jobs gap 16-64Late 1990s 16-64
Jobs
gap
(tho
usan
ds)
Aged 16+
Aged 16-64
The UK ‘jobs gap’ under different recovery scenariosChange from Mar-May 2008, thousands of jobs
#fullemployment
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Working hours: there has been a shift from full-time to part-time
Popu
latio
n
Activ
e
Inac
tive
FT e
mpl
oyed
PT e
mpl
oyed
FT se
lf-em
ploy
ed
PT se
lf-em
ploy
ed
Unem
ploy
ed
1,770
1,040729
-520
29697 243
904
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#fullemployment
Change since 2008
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
But both part-timers and full-timers are working longer hours
2008 2009 2013
32.0
31.4
32.0
All workers
2008 2009 2013
37.1
36.5
37.5
Full-time workers
2008 2009 2013
15.6
15.2
15.9
Part-time workers
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
#fullemployment
Average working hours
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The Resolution Foundation ……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
• No room for complacency – full jobs recovery a long way off
• Ageing workforce is a big part of the picture
• Real wage squeeze key part of the story
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
The Road Back Towards Full Employment
Resolution Foundation
www.resolutionfoundation.org@resfoundation
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
#fullemployment