the road from paris - whither climate policy?
TRANSCRIPT
The Road from ParisWhither Climate Policy?
Richard S.J. TolUniversity of Sussex
Vrije Universiteit, AmsterdamTinbergen Institute
CESifo
The state of climate policy• The foundations of international climate
policy were laid between 1985 (Villach) and 1992 (Rio)• For 20-25 years, governments around the
world have tried to reduce greenhouse gas emissions• How successful was this?
The implementation of climate policy• Climate policy has been about rewarding
allies with rents and subsidies rather than emission reduction• The experience in Portugal, Spain and the
UK suggests that subsidies do not always survive austerity• The experience in Australia and the UK
suggests that rents created for specific groups do not always survive an election
Europe‘s climate policy?• EU NorthWest imposed its environmental
standards on rest• EU South got the Euro in return• EU East got structural funds in return• Euro-crisis and refugee crisis are
unravelling Europe’s Grand Bargain
• Attempts to “fix” EU ETS have failed• Transport policy falling apart
India‘s climate policy?
China‘s climate policy?• Clean air and abundant water are China’s
environmental priorities• Leadership seems to have chosen tradable
permits as the instrument of choice for climate policy
China‘s climate policy?• Clean air and abundant water are China’s
environmental priorities• Leadership seems to have chosen tradable
permits as the instrument of choice for climate policy
-500
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1996 1999 2004 2005 2006 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
dolla
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US‘ climate policy?• Executive orders can be reversed
Expectations for COP21• Since the collapse of the Copenhagen
negotiations in 2009, countries have repeatedly affirmed that a new protocol would be finished by 2015
Expectations for COP21• Greenhouse gas emission reduction is a
public good – no one can be excluded from the benefits and one’s benefits do not diminish someone else’s benefits• An international treaty on climate policy is
not stable Carraro & Siniscalco 1993 Barrett 1994
• International negotiations on binding targets and timetables have failed since 1995
Expectations for COP21• International negotiations on binding
targets and timetables have failed since 1995• Other public goods – pandemics, peace
missions – are funded by pledge & review• Lima 2014 introduced Intended Nationally
Determined Contributions to greenhouse gas emission reduction• All major countries have now, unilaterally,
announced their emissions targets
Expectations for COP21• Discussion is now about money: How much
do rich countries need to pay poor countries to pretend to reduce emissions?• Old game, but dynamics have changed• Unilateral targets imply no consent is needed• Poor are now much richer• Rise of China and India• Austerity in Europe and Japan
• All major countries have now, unilaterally, announced their emissions targets
The two degrees target• The global, annual mean surface air
temperature should not rise more than two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times• Target was formulated by a committee of
middle-aged, German men• Adopted by the Government of Germany• Adopted by the European Union• Endorsed by Barack Obama and Xi Jinping• Focal point of UN negotiations
• Environmentalists have now switched to 1.5°C
The two degrees target• We will not meet the generally agreed
target• Unless the climate sensitivity is lower than
generally assumed
• How bad is that?
-25.0
-22.5
-20.0
-17.5
-15.0
-12.5
-10.0
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
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-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5
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Global warming (in degrees centrigrade)
-25.0
-22.5
-20.0
-17.5
-15.0
-12.5
-10.0
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5
Wel
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Global warming (in degrees centrigrade)-20
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0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5Socia
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arbon
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rbon
)
Climate sensitivity (Kelvin per doubling of ambient carbon dioxide)
-20
-15
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-5
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100 1,000 10,000 100,000
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Income (in 2005 dollar per person per year)
Poorer countries are more vulnerable because- Hotter already- Greater exposure- Low adaptive capacity
Both abatement and development reduce climate change impacts.
Wrap-up• 25 years of climate policy has• Made most a litte bit poorer• Some a whole lot richer• Not reduced emissions much• Failed to entrance itself
• International climate policy is shifting from a hopeless focus on binding targets to a more realistic pledge-and-review• The 2°C target will be missed• Missing the target will not lead to a large
welfare loss