T H E R O B E R T A N D R E N É E B E L F E R C E N T E R F O R S C I E N C E A N D I N T E R N A T I O N A L A F F A I R S

BCSIA NewsWinter 2000

In this issue:

New Caspian Program page 2

A Conversation with Norberg-Bohm page 3

Sustainability Reports Released page 6

Curbing the Spread of Small Arms page 6

E-Commerce in Saudi Arabia page 7

Human Rights in Idaho page 8

Why Nations Play By The Rules page 9

Gen. Shelton on Russia page 11

Addressing Loose Nukes page 12continued on page 9

When the Russian parliamentary elec-tion returns came in last December,

and when President Boris Yeltsin unexpect-edly resigned making Prime MinisterVladimir Putin acting President, membersof BCSIA’s Strengthening Democratic Insti-tutions (SDI) Project were watching withmore than a sporting interest.

SDI has not only become a top sourceof information about the elections for U.S.policymakers through its monthly RussianElection Watch, but over the past five yearshas worked directly with many Russianparties and politicians to support democ-ratization there.

Putin’s popularity grew thanksto the war in Chechnya and a

massive media assault on opposition parties.

From this perspective, Russia’s eventfulDecember was rather discouraging. The“Unity” bloc (endorsed by Putin) wonnearly 25 percent of the vote despite hav-ing no major issue positions, no significantlocal organization, and having been cre-ated only three scant months before theelections.

Further, Putin’s (and hence Unity’s)popularity grew mainly thanks to the warin Chechnya and a massive media assaulton parties that had invested a great deal of

effort in party-building, including Yablokoand Fatherland-All Russia.

SDI’s goal of assisting political partydevelopment now seems more distant thanbefore, as the number of independent can-didates elected actually rose from the 1995elections.

Nevertheless, other results, if not inspir-ing, are still cause to believe that SDI effortsare helping to push in a positive direction.

For one thing, Grigory Yavlinsky’s

Russian Elections Show Mixed Bag of Results

Americans have come to accept thatthey are no longer safe from terrorist

acts on U.S. soil. Images of the destructioncaused by terrorism come to mind withsimple phrases such as Oklahoma City andWorld Trade Center.

With the sarin nerve gas attack on Tok-yo’s subway in 1995, biological and chemicalattacks entered the realm of possibility. Asthe nature of terrorism in the post-Cold Warworld has changed, so must the response.

But response efforts are difficult tocoordinate because they involve multipleagencies and levels of government. Forexample, over 100 local law enforcementagencies were involved in security prepara-tions for the Atlanta Olympics.

In addition, preparing for and respond-ing to domestic terrorism requires jointefforts by officials from federal, state, andlocal governments who do not usuallywork together.

reformist Yabloko Party won seats in parlia-ment for the third consecutive time, despiteits unpopular moderate stand on Russia’swar in Chechnya. SDI has long workedwith Yabloko to build up its organization,and Yabloko’s efforts in this direction mayhave helped save it from falling below thecritical 5 percent threshold for Dumaadmission.

More impressively, Russia’s Democratic

Coordination Key to Combating Terrorism on US Soil

An Executive Session on Domestic Preparedness was convened in December 1999.At left, Richard Falkenrath makes a point as Marcell Layton from the New York CityDepartment of Health and Donald Hollingworth from the Mayor’s office in Houston,Texas look on. At right is Ashton Carter with Brigadier General Phillip Oates of the Alaska National Guard.

continued on page 9

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2 • BCSIA News

From the Director

The Belfer Center welcomes the newcentury with enthusiasm and high

expectations. The research of our facultyand fellows continues to be of the highestquality and our interactions with policymakers and opinion shapers continue togrow.

This issue highlights several of the waysin which the Center addresses breaking devel-opments and engages the policy community.

Watching Russia has never been withoutits surprises, but the past few months havebrought more unexpected and significantturns than usual. The devastating war inChechnya, the unpredictable race for theDuma, Yeltsin’s surprise resignation, andPutin’s astonishing rise in the polls havekept our team of Russia analysts on theirtoes and have caused us to consider Russia’sfuture with some trepidation.

In Russia’s changing politicalcircumstances, we have

kept our eye on the threat of loose nukes.

We continue to produce our widely-cir-culated Russian Election Watch, which offersexpert assessments of the Russian politicalsituation, and our team has been pumpingout analysis and articles to help those con-cerned about Russia keep track of thechanging situation there.

In Russia’s changing political circum-stances, we have kept our eye on the threatof loose nukes in the former Soviet Union.A new report from a task force chaired byformer Senator Sam Nunn, and includingmyself and STPP Assistant Director MattBunn, lays out a specific agenda of initia-tives to manage the risk of unprotectednuclear materials.

On the home front, we have stepped upefforts to strenghten American defensesagainst terrorism by working to improveresponse efforts and communicationthrough the Executive Session on DomesticPreparedness directed by Richard Falkenrath.

Finally, we are proud to introduce a newinitiative into the Center. As the oil-rich andstrategically located Caspian Sea regioncomes under increasing scrutiny fromenergy corporations and interested govern-ments, it is fitting that the Center step up itswork on this important region. Our newCaspian Studies Program, under the aus-pices of the SDI project, will help improveunderstanding and awareness of this area.

— Graham T. Allison

War in Chechnya, assassinations inArmenia, and a framework agree-

ment for a multi-billion dollar oil pipelinefrom Azerbaijan to Turkey are just a fewrecent examples of the complex interactionof economic, political, and security devel-opments affecting the Caspian region.

This fall, the Strengthening DemocraticInstitutions Project at the Belfer Center forScience and International Affairs launcheda new Caspian Studies Program and Azer-baijan Initiative to promote research,teaching, and outreach about this impor-tant region.

Recent developments have raised graveconcerns about the future stability of theCaspian region. Economic growth has beensluggish, while oil discoveries have proveddisappointing.

Doubts about the quality and stabilityof democracy in the region are growing—especially given that many of the countriesface the uncertainty of transition to a newgeneration of leaders over the next fewyears.

The continuation of fighting in Chech-nya has underlined concerns about Russiaplaying a new, more aggressive role in theCaspian and Caucasus regions. These andrelated issues will be at the center of atten-tion of the Caspian Studies Program overthe coming months.

The program’s research agenda focuseson three interconnected issues: American

national interests in the Caspian Basin;specific geopolitical realities and trends inthe states bordering the Caspian Sea; andU.S. political, economic, and securitystrategies toward the Caspian.

The main programmatic componentsare: annual experts conferences onprospects for the Caspian region; a Cauca-sus and Caspian seminar series; and con-gressional events together with otheractivities to inform and engage leading U.S.policymakers.

Recent developments haveraised grave concerns about

the future stability of theCaspian region.

The Azerbaijan Initiative will bringemerging leaders from Azerbaijan to theKennedy School to receive further trainingin the school’s degree and executive educa-tion programs.

The three-year program is made possi-ble by a generous gift from the UnitedStates-Azerbaijan Chamber of Commerceand a consortium of companies led byExxon-Mobil, Chevron, Aker-Maritime,CCC, ETPM, and the Amerada Hess Cor-poration. (www.ksg.harvard.edu/bcsia/sdi)

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Troubled Region Comes Under Center Lens

SDI kicked off its Caspian Studies Program with a panel discussion in the Forum on “US and the Caspian: Crossroads or Barricade?” on October 26, 1999.

From left to right are:Araz Azimov,Azerbaijan’s deputy minister of foreign affairs,BCSIA board member Ashton Carter,Tim Cejka of Exxon Ventures, and BCSIA boardmember John Deutch.

BCSIA News • 3

Where Are They Now?

Since its founding in 1973, the Center has hosted many pre- and post-doctoral fellows who have gone on to become leaders in academia, government, the

private sector, and the non-profit world. In each issue of BCSIA News, we catch up with aformer fellow to learn about life after the Belfer Center.

Vicki Norberg-Bohm came to the Cen-ter in 1989 as one of the first environ-

mental fellows. She was an Assistant Pro-fessor at MIT before returning to BCSIAthis year as Director of the Energy Tech-nology Innovation Project, a joint projectbetween the Science, Technology and Pub-lic Policy Program and the Environmentand Natural Resources Program. Norberg-Bohm sat down with BCSIA News editorAnya Schmemann recently to talk abouther work on energy technologies.

Q How did the Energy Technology Inno-vation Project emerge?

VNB The Energy Technology Innova-tion Project grew out of an existing projectcalled Energy Research and DevelopmentPolicy for a Greenhouse-Gas ConstrainedWorld. The name change reflects the factthat we are not just concerned with R&D,but are interested in the complete innova-tion process by which cleaner energy tech-nologies are developed, commercialized,and deployed.

Q What are the goals of the project?

VNB The project on R&D for a Green-house-Gas Constrained World focuses oninternational cooperation to develop,demonstrate, and deploy cleaner and moreefficient energy technologies. The project isexamining the difference between currentenergy R&D systems and those needed toaddress climate change. Our aim is tothink creatively and make proposals abouthow to close this gap, and specifically howthe U.S. can work cooperatively with othercountries to move R&D programs, policies,and institutions in a direction that wouldaddress the greenhouse gas issue.

Q And the Technology Innovation Project?

VNB We are examining how differentpolicy mechanisms influence private invest-ment in technology innovation. Specifically,we are considering three “pathways” throughwhich the government influences technol-ogy innovation—regulation, government-sponsored R&D programs, and assessmentsabout future environmental problems. Ourgoals are to contribute to the understandingof the process of radical technological inno-vation, and to provide some practical guid-ance to those faced with the task ofpromoting technological innovation formanaging global environmental change.

Q Why is this work urgent?

VNB There is uncertainty about thetiming over which climate change will hap-pen, how large a change we will see overthe next 50 to 100 years, and what it willmean for particular regions of world. But itis clear that greenhouse gases are causingclimatic change, and precisely because ofthe uncertainty we should be proactivelymanaging this issue. The U.S. must take aleadership role because we have the capa-bility to do so and because we have aresponsibility as the biggest greenhouse gasproducer.

Q Why should funding for energy R&D beincreased?

VNB There are lots of reasons to investin R&D for cleaner energy technologies.Technologies that will reduce greenhousegas will also reduce other kinds of environ-mental concerns, such as smog, and acidrain. Also, our investment in energy R&Dcontributes to U.S. security, economicgrowth, and U.S. competitiveness.

Q What is the challenge in the developingworld?

VNB That is a big question, so let metalk about the focus of our work. We areinitially working on cooperation withChina and India and expect to work withRussia and Brazil in the future. Meetingdevelopment goals will require huge invest-ments in energy infrastructures. Energy

infrastructures last 30 to 50 years, so thetype of infrastructure that is put in placenow will have an impact for a long periodof time. Progress made in putting in lowgreenhouse gas emitting infrastructures willhave important long-term benefits.

Q Why is international cooperationimportant?

VNB Climate change is not a problemthat any one country can solve by itself. It isin the U.S. national interest to cooperatewith other countries to design national andinternational policies, institutions, andinfrastructures that will help managegreenhouse gases while simultaneously sup-porting local development and local envi-ronmental concerns.

Q How did you enjoy your time here as afellow?

VNB This is a place which is incrediblyintellectually stimulating, the faculty arevery involved in both academic and policydebates, and the fellows are fascinating andbrilliant people. It was wonderful to be afellow here and wonderful to return for thesame reasons.

Energy Technology Innovation ProjectDirector Vicki Norberg-Bohm.

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As George W. Bush heats up his presi-dential campaign, his “Vulcans”

have been busy hammering out a plat-form that outlines his foreign policy pri-orities. Inspired by the Roman god of fireand metal working, “Vulcans’”is the cam-paign’s nickname for Bush’s foreign pol-icy team, which includes leadingmembers of his father’s administration.

The New York Times and the Washing-ton Post have identified BCSIA board mem-ber Robert Blackwill, who was a NationalSecurity Council aide in the Bush adminis-tration, and BCSIA Research ScholarRobert Zoellick, who was deputy chief ofstaff in the Bush White House, as coremembers of the team.

Short TakesVulcans Forge Bush’s Foreign Policy Agenda

4 • BCSIA News

BCSIA Events

1 Former British Prime Minister JohnMajor spoke at the Forum on September15, 1999 with Dean Joseph Nye looking on.2 Secretary of the Interior Bruce Babbittspoke with BCSIA Director Graham Allison during a visit to the Belfer Centeron November 16, 1999.3 Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott gave a speech about Russia onOcober 1, 1999.

From the OpinionPages . . .“A recent event forced me to question howa country, so rich that this year it faces asevere shortage of champagne and caviar,has allowed so many people to suffer soneedlessly.”—STPP Faculty Associate Dorothy Zinberg,

“The Digital Philanthropists,”The London Times Higher Education

Supplement, December 24, 1999

“After 70 years of communism, the trulyextraordinary fact is that Russians arechoosing their leaders in competitive,democratic elections.”

—BCSIA Director Graham Allison,“The ‘Democratic Presumption’ is Taking

Hold in Russia,” The Boston Globe,December 21, 1999

“The longer Europe falls short on defense,the more impatient U.S. politicians willbecome at having to bear a disproportion-ate share of the burden.”

—BCSIA Research Scholar Robert Zoellick and Charles Kupchan,

“It Can be Lonely at the Top,”Financial Times, December 13, 1999

“The threat of keeping our civilization ahostage to an irresponsible and outmodedview of the role of nuclear weapons mustbe met by an informed public.”

—BCSIA Director Emeritus Paul Doty,“The Forgotten Menace,” Nature,

December 1999

“The big powers must work with India toprevent the Liberation Tigers of TamilEelam from re-arming.”—WPF Program Director Robert Rotberg,

“India and Big Powers Must Play a Role in Helping Sri Lanka Find Peace,”The Boston Globe, November 20, 1999

“The United States and other governmentsstill have far to go before they are preparedto deal with outbreaks of exotic diseases,whether they are spread by nature or—as isfar less likely—deliberately by man.”—ISP Senior Fellow Jessica Stern, “Is That

an Epidemic—or a Terrorist Attack?:A Lethal Weapon We Must Learn

to Recognize,” The New York Times,October 16, 1999

“Most terrorists aren’t interested in stagingcatastrophic biological attacks, and thosewho would have significant technical hur-dles to overcome.”—Jonathan Tucker, “Is That an Epidemic—

or a Terrorist Attack?: Bioterrorism Is the Least of Our Worries,” The New

York Times, October 16, 1999 (Tucker is the editor of a volume on chemical andbiological weapons produced by the BCSIA Studiesin International Security.)

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BCSIA News • 5

NewsmakersJohn Holdren, Director of the Science,Technology, and Public Policy Program,was awarded the Tyler Prize for Environ-mental Achievement, the premier awardhonoring achievements in environmentalscience and environmental protection. TheTyler Prize, which is administered by theUniversity of Southern California, will bepresented to Holdren in Los Angeles onApril 14, 2000.

Holdren was also recognized by theKaul Foundation for excellence in the fieldof science and environmental policy as a“researcher, educator, and policy advocatefor a balanced global portfolio of environ-mentally acceptable energy options andarms control for the twenty-first century.”

Deborah Hurley, Director of the HarvardInformation Infrastructure Project, wasselected as one of seven finalists for theWorld Technology Award for Policy. Theaward, bestowed by the World TechnologyNetwork and the Economist magazine, hon-ors leaders who most contribute to theadvance of emerging technologies of allsorts for the benefit of business and society.

Deborah Hurley has also beenappointed to a three-year term as a mem-ber of the American Academy for theAdvancement of Science’s Advisory Com-mittee on International Science. BCSIASenior Research Associate Robert Froschalso serves as an ACIS member.

Robert Stavins, Faculty Chair of the Envi-ronmental and Natural Resources Program,was re-appointed as Chairman of the U.S.Environmental Protection Agency’s Envi-ronmental Economics Advisory Committee.

Stavins was also appointed to the Exec-utive Committee of Harvard University’sCommittee on the Environment.

BCSIA Director Graham Allison’s 1969article, “Conceptual Models and the CubanMissile Crisis,” was the most downloadedarticle on the internet (via JSTOR) fromJanuary 1997 to June 1999 according to theAmerican Political Science Review.

Richard Falkenrath, Director of the Exec-utive Session on Domestic Preparedness,was appointed to a congressionally man-dated Commission to Assess State andLocal Domestic Preparedness for Terror-ism, chaired by Governor Jim Gilmore ofVirginia.

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4 James Rubin,Assistant Secretary ofState for Public Affairs, spoke about thegovernment’s relationship with the presson November 9, 1999.5 Sadako Ogata, United Nations HighCommissioner for Refugees, spoke at theForum on November 8, 1999.6 Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo,pictured here with Center for Intertna-tional Development Director JeffreySachs, addressed the Forum on October30, 1999.

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6 • BCSIA News

Protecting Planet Earth

Small arms and light weapons—weapons that can be carried by an

individual soldier—are most commonlyused in the local wars of the post-Cold Warera. In the 1990s, about 4 million soldiersand civilians were killed by small arms ininternal conflicts of the developing world.

A new report from the WPF Programon Intrastate Conflict, Conflict Prevention,and Conflict Resolution offers a compre-hensive strategy to curb illegal small armstrafficking, which has fueled an increasingnumber of armed conflicts.

The Scourge of Small Arms outlinesmeasures that the U.S. and internationalorganizations can take to combat the pro-liferation of light weapons.

The proposals include the monitoringand tracking of weapons, the creation of aninternational database of traffickers, and theestablishment of a United Nations Conven-tion that criminalizes illicit small arms sales.

More people have been killed by smallarms in wars in this decade than by majorweapons systems. Millions have beenwounded and displaced from their homesdue to civil wars fueled by small arms.

In this decade, more peoplehave been killed in wars bysmall arms than by major

weapons systems.

The easy availability of small arms alsoassists drug trafficking, terrorism, orga-nized crime, and much more.

WPF Program Director Robert Rotbergsaid, “as ethnic and internal conflicts prolif-erate, the flood of small arms becomes arelentless tide.”

Portable, cheap and readily procured,these light weapons are supremely destruc-

tive. It is estimated that as many as 500million small arms may currently be in cir-culation in the developing world. Theglobal trade in these weapons is valued at$7 billion a year.

About 70 countries manufacture smallarms, but the biggest suppliers are theUnited States, Russia, the Czech Republic,China, South Korea, the United Kingdom,Belgium, Brazil, and Bulgaria.

Authors Rotberg and Michael Klarefocus on how supplies of small arms canbe controlled by initiatives and actionsfrom the United Nations, the EuropeanUnion, or the U.S. They recommend waysto advance awareness of the problem, tomake the trade more accountable andtransparent, and to curb illicit sales andshipments. (www.ksg.harvard.edu/bcsia/wpf.)

Stemming the Flow of Illegal Small Arms

As the world enters the 21st century,the health of the planet and the sus-

tainability of the Earth’s population and itslife-support systems come increasingly intoquestion. Can we avoid further damage toour fragile ecosystems? Can human needsover the next two generations be met with-out depleting the environment?

William Clark, Director of the BelferCenter’s Global Environmental AssessmentProject, argues that scientific research, pri-vate actions, and public policies must belinked to promote a transition to sustain-ability in which people can meet theirneeds while simultaneously nurturing andrestoring the environment.

In two new reports chaired by Clark, heand his teams lay out a new researchagenda for global sustainability science andprovide a foundation for periodic reportson the state of the nation’s ecosystems.

The world’s population is projected to reach upwards

of 9 billion by 2050.

Our Common Journey: A Transition toSustainability, produced by the NationalResearch Council of the National Acade-mies, points out that population growth isprojected to reach upwards of 9 billion by2050. It outlines the greatest threats to

global sustainability and points to five keypriorities for action by the year 2050.

1. The world’s population needs toreduced by ten percent by 2050;

2. Four billion people are expected to livein urban areas by 2050. Cities need tofind ways to provide water, sanitation,and clean air while preserving the envi-ronment;

3, Africa’s agricultural food productionmust be doubled or tripled by 2050.Better distribution and access in Africawill also be needed;

4. Household energy use must continue tobe lowered, low-polluting and energy-efficient automobiles should be built,and industrial consumption and wasteshould be reduced through re-use andrecycling;

5. Harmed ecosystems must be restoredand maintained. How ecosystems can bemanaged on a local or regional scaleshould be examined.

To meet these goals, the report urgesthat the United States, as a leader in scien-tific and technological innovation as well asa major consumer of global resources, playa central role in charting a transition tosustainability.

A second publication, Designing aReport of the State of the Nation’s Ecosys-tems, produced by the Heinz Center forScience, Economics, and the Environment,

is a prototype meant to provide a frame-work of indicators to describe the condi-tion of the United States’ ecosystems andhuman uses of them.

The U.S. must play a centralrole in charting a transition

to sustainability.

“Periodic reports on leading economicindicators are fundamental tools for mak-ing investments and determining economicpolicy,” Clark said. “Developing analogousindicators for the environment is longoverdue and fundamental to the quest forsustainable environmental policies.”

The project seeks to fill this gap bydeveloping an accurate and reliable report-ing system about the environment. Draw-ing data from a variety of sources, thereport describes and evaluates the nation’scroplands, forests, coasts, and oceans.

Together, these two reports and thework of the GEA Project help set the stagefor a thorough re-thinking of our steward-ship of this planet and its resources.

Our Common Journey is available atwww.nap.edu/catalog/9690.

Designing a Report is available at www.us-ecosystems.org.

BCSIA News • 7

As information technology (IT)expands rapidly world-wide, the Har-

vard Information Infrastructure Project(HIIP) is studying the impact of Internetservices, the World Wide Web, and e-com-merce in areas of the world where IT is stillrelatively new and underutilized.

At an October conference in Jeddah,Saudi Arabia, which attracted governmentofficials, academics, and business peoplefrom throughout the region, the HIIPexamined the potential for IT usage in theArab world.

The Saudi Arabian Minister of Com-merce, Dr. Osama Faqih, said, “Holdingthis seminar [in Jeddah] is not an accidentbecause the Kingdom is the largest MiddleEastern center in exploiting information

Bringing E-Commerce to the Arab World

technology and one of the largest growingmarkets in the world.”

Among the several advantages it bringsto the e-commerce endeavor, Saudi Arabiahas an educated and savvy elite and Englishis widely spoken.

Half of the PCs sold in the country aremanufactured locally, representing the onlyIT hardware industry among the Arabnations. The country also has significantfinancial resources and a long tradition ofinterest in international trade.

However, there are also many chal-lenges. Outdated elements, such as anarchaic delivery of services system and atraditional network of business relation-ships, need to evolve in order to meet thenew challenges.

Saudi Arabia must also create an indige-nous labor force and innovative capacity aswell as improve science and technologytraining for its many young people (46 per-cent of the Kingdom’s people are under theage of fifteen).

In addition, dialogue between the gov-ernment and the business community isunder-developed and adoption of IT by thegovernment has been slow. Internet serviceproviders are very limited in number andtheir ability to provide reliable and afford-able access is inadequate.

At the Jeddah IT Forum on E-Com-merce, the Harvard team pointed out thatIT development can contribute to publicservices by reducing costs, improving accessto information for citizens, and enhancingthe ability of government officials to makeIT-related decisions.

As follow-up to the conference, the Jed-dah Chamber of Commerce and Industryhas requested the HIIP’s assistance in devel-oping the city into a regional IT center. Inaddition, the HIIP is evaluating proposals toorganize similar meetings in other nations.

The Harvard delegation to the Jeddahconference included HIIP members LewisBranscomb, Jane Fountain, Deborah Hur-ley, Viktor Mayer-Schönberger, and NoraO’Neil, together with Professors RichardFalkenrath and F. M. Scherer. (www.ksg.harvard.edu/iip/jeddahecom)

For your CalendarLewis M. Branscomb Lecture Series

To celebrate its tenth anniversary last year, the Harvard Information InfrastructureProject, together with the Science, Technology and Public Policy Program,

launched a lecture series to honor Lewis Branscomb’s many accomplishments and con-tributions to the field of science and technology.

This year’s lecture will be given by Gerald Holton, Professor of Physics at HarvardUniversity, on March 16. His lecture will examine the historical tensions betweenapplied and basic approaches to scientific research, explore a third “Jeffersonian”option, and touch on other topics relevant to the science policy debate. (www.ksg.har-vard.edu/iip/lmb/lmb2.htm)

Harvard Information Infrastructure Project Director Deborah Hurley withRichard Falkenrath and Saudi PrinceMisha’l Bin Majed Bin Abdul Aziz at theJeddah IT Forum on E-Commerce heldon October 2–3, 1999.

The Kennedy School team at the Jeddah conference included (from left):Victor Mayer-Schönberger, Deborah Hurley, F. M. Scherer, Lewis M. Branscomb,Jane Fountain, and Richard Falkenrath.

8 • BCSIA News

This fall, the Carr Center for HumanRights Policy turned its spotlight from

human-rights violations in far-off placessuch as Kosovo, to intolerance and humanrights abuses in the American heartland.

At the home of Gregory Carr in Sun Val-ley Idaho, the Center convened a workshopin November to address human rights issuesin Idaho and to come up with a plan foraction.

The workshop, organized in partner-ship with the Association of Idaho Cities(AIC), was born of the recognition thatimmediate action is necessary to preventIdaho’s national image of intolerance frombecoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Idahoans worry that their state’s nega-tive reputation repels businesses from relo-cating there and attracts bigotedindividuals to their cities and towns.

The daylong workshop sought to assesshuman rights awareness, protections, andcontroversies in Idaho. Participantsincluded members of the AIC and represen-

tatives from the Idaho media, businesscommunity, and human rights organiza-tions.

The group reviewed the highly-visibleproblem of hate groups in the state as wellas other human rights challenges that stemin part from changing state demographicsand in part from tensions that have existedfor more than a century.

Idahoans worry that the state’snegative image repels business

and attracts bigots.

Tough questions were asked, including:How well do Idahoans respect diversity?;Does the growing Hispanic population cre-ate tensions?; How are Native Americanconcerns addressed?; What sorts of ten-sions does the Mormon population face?;Does the existence of hate groups hurtbusiness and tourism?

The workshop participants were con-cerned that these problems decrease thequality of life for all Idahoans, but wonderedhow to frame a human rights campaign inIdaho using language that would appeal to abroad segment of the population.

The participants brainstormed aboutaction plans to enhance human rights con-sciousness and protections and to increaserespect for diversity in the state.

They also examined the positive stepsalready taken by the business community,law enforcement agencies, schools,churches, and civic groups and discussedstrategies for a full-fledged human rightscampaign.

Concluding the conference, Carr hosteda reception for Harry Wu, the Chinese-American human rights activist and formerpolitical prisoner who spoke about hiswork exposing the Laogai, the Chineseforced labor system. (www.ksg.harvard.edu/cchrp/)

Learning Tolerance At Home

The Kosovo crisis created enormous humanitarian and humanrights challenges. To review lessons learned from reporting and

advocacy during the crisis, the Carr Center for Human Rights Policyconvened a special roundtable of human rights practitioners in Octo-ber 1999.

The intense day-long workshop, co-sponsored with Physicians forHuman Rights, brought together representatives from major humanrights NGOs, policymakers, journalists, and members of the academiccommunity to examine the successes, failures, and lessons of thehuman rights community’s involvement in Kosovo. Aryeh Neier, Presi-dent of the Open Society Institute, chaired the sessions.

Were human rights monitors able to gather facts, confirm atrocityaccounts, and incorporate evidence into prescriptive advocacy? Whenthe NATO bombing began, did human rights organizations tailor theiradvocacy to meet the changed human rights and humanitarian circum-stances?

Were activists able to address the tensions between long-termhuman rights objectives and immediate violations of humanitarianlaw? These and other difficult questions were posed to the participants.

The closed-door event was designed to allow the participants toshare experiences and lessons learned, and to critically assess theiractions and responses in Kosovo. (www.ksg.harvard.edu/cchrp/)

Human Rights Efforts in Kosovo Evaluated

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Have you been to our Web site recently?Please visit us at www. ksg.harvard.edu/bcsiafor full information about our programs and activities.

Susan Blaustein of the International Crisis Group,Mark Bartolini of the International Rescue Com-mittee, and David Rieff of the New Republic atthe Kosovo workshop.

John Fox of the Open Society Institute spoke atthe Kosovo workshop as Greg Carr looked on.

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BCSIA News • 9

Choice, another SDI party-building partnerfrom past programs, managed to make arespectable showing in 1999 as part of theUnion of Right-Wing Forces despite fouryears in the proverbial wilderness after itfailed to cross the 5 percent threshold in1995.

Under BCSIA Director Graham Allison’sactive leadership, SDI is committed to con-tinuing its efforts in support of Russian

democracy. These efforts now include plansfor a party-building program for Unity,which, having no national-level parliamen-tary experience of its own, will seek to learnabout the U.S. experience on Capitol Hilland at Harvard this spring.

Russian Election Watch will continue toprovide updates and analysis as Russia headstoward its fateful presidential elections. SDIalso plans several events to preview the elec-

tion, including a briefing in Washington DCfor media representatives and policymakers.A symposium highlighting the Duma elec-tions was held in October in conjunctionwith Harvard’s Davis Center for RussianStudies.

Russian Election Watch is on the Web atwww.ksg.harvard.edu/bcsia/russianelection-watch

In an effort to help meet the challengesfacing emergency response officials, theExecutive Session on Domestic Prepared-ness, working in conjunction with the U.S.Department of Justice, gathered senioremergency officials and experts from fed-eral, state, and local governments togetherwith Harvard faculty for a meeting inDecember. The group will meet five moretimes over the next two years.

Discussion during this initial meetingfocused on several broad issues includingcapacity building, coordination, and legalauthority. Most members of the groupagreed that the domestic terrorist threat is aserious and growing challenge for thenation and that current preparedness islimited.

Recognizing that effective preparednessinvolves technical, legal, and operationalexpertise that goes far beyond the capabil-ity of any single organization, the groupfocused on the need for a system to coordi-nate the activities of the large number ofinvolved agencies.

Richard Falkenrath, Principal Investiga-tor of the Executive Session, said, “ade-quate preparation is as much a nationalsecurity challenge as it is a problem ofpublic management.”

The objective of the Executive Session,jointly sponsored by the Belfer Center andthe Taubman Center for State and LocalGovernment, is to become a major resourcefor federal, state, and local government offi-cials, congressional committees, and othersinterested in preparation for a coordinatedresponse to acts of domestic terrorism.

Falkenrath continued, “I am optimisticthat this unprecedented collaboration willgenerate new insights and research that willbe of use to any government concerned bythe threat of terrorism.”

In the absence of international enforce-ments and deterrents, why do nations

comply with international human rightsobligations?

Oona Hathaway, a fellow with the CarrCenter for Human Rights Policy, wonderswhy nations agree to be bound by humanrights treaties in a period when the tradi-tional rules on state sovereignty are underintense scrutiny.

Hathaway, a joint fellow with the Centerfor Ethics and the Professions, is developinga model of how the characteristics of anation influence its decision to comply withinternational human rights laws.

As a student of the law, Hathaway pointsout that the question of why nations complywith international human rights treaties is afundamental one.

“This is a puzzle for all students of inter-national law and politics—and, indeed, forall those concerned about the humane treat-ment of citizens,” she says.

Hathaway arrives well prepared for solv-ing these legal and philosophical puzzles. Asumma cum laude from Harvard and a YaleLaw School graduate, she served as Editor-in-Chief of the Yale Law Journal. After Yale,she served as a judicial law clerk to JusticeSandra Day O’Connor of the U.S. SupremeCourt.

Her project uses the tools of interna-tional law, political economy, and rationalchoice theory to answer two questions: whydo nations comply with human rights treatylaw and why do nations comply withhuman rights customary law.

In the first instance, it seems that nationssign treaties when they believe that they willincur few costs. Deviations from this generalrule occur where there has been a regimechange, unanticipated domestic unrest, ormiscalculation of the likelihood that a treatywould be enforced.

Deviations also occur where the execu-tive holds a different ideology from the mili-tary or legislature. In those instances, a decision to sign a treaty might indicate an

effort by the executive to use the interna-tional agreement to gain leverage in thedomestic sphere.

In the second case, Hathaway hypothe-sizes that countries comply with customary

law because they derive reputational bene-fits that are beneficial both abroad and athome.

Countries may comply because they areunder pressure from domestic interestgroups to take steps towards advancinghuman rights, or they may comply in orderto create law that would bind all nations,not simply those that have subscribed to thespecific dictates of the treaty.

Also, nations with weak democraticregimes often comply to protect themselvesagainst future threats to democratic gover-nance at home and abroad (binding them-selves to the mast, so to speak).

In the final stage of her study, Hathawaywill examine the tension between custom-ary law, which can require the invalidationof popularly chosen laws but does not itselfhave its roots in any democratic or repre-sentative institution, and legal legitimacy.

Russian Electionscontinued from page 1

Coordinationcontinued from page 1

Why do Nations Play by the Rules?

Carr Center Fellow Oona Hathaway.

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10 • BCSIA News

The Middle East Military Balance,1999–2000Shlomo Brom and Yiftah Shapir, Editors(The MIT Press, 1999)

The Middle East remains one of the world’smost volatile regions. Stretching from Moroccoto Iran, this area has witnessed conflicts fordecades. Understanding the dynamics of theseconflicts requires detailed information on themilitary capabilities of the countries in thisregion.

The Middle East Military Balance is preparedby the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies in TelAviv, Israel and is part of the BCSIA Studies inInternational Security series.

With a wealth of current, hard-to-findinformation, this book offers an authoritative,respected, and indispensable guide to militarycapabilities in the Middle East. (www.ksg.har-vard.edu/bcsia/sdi)

Toxic Terror: Assessing Terrorist Use ofChemical and Biological WeaponsJonathan B.Tucker, Editor(The MIT Press, 2000)

Policymakers, scholars, and the news mediahave been alarmed by the potential for terror-ism with chemical and biological weapons(CBW).

Driving these concerns are the globalspread of scientific knowledge and technologyrelevant to CBW terrorism and the vulnerabil-ity of civilian populations to chemical and bio-logical attacks.

Toxic Terror, part of the BCSIA Studies inInternational Security, provides in-depth casestudies of twelve terrorist groups and individu-als who, from 1946 to 1998, allegedly acquiredor employed CBW agents.

By comparing and contrasting the twelvecases, the book identifies characteristic motiva-tions and patterns of behavior associated withCBW terrorism and provides an empirical basisfor prudent, cost-effective strategies of preven-tion and response. (www.ksg.harvard.edu/bcsia/sdi)

“Toxic Terror uses detailed case studies toseek out advance indicators of terroristswho are likely to attempt the use of chemi-cal or biological weapons.This is a pioneer-ing approach and a promising complementto the current emphasis on mitigating theconsequences of CBW terrorism.”

—Sam Nunn, U.S. Senator, 1972–97,and Partner, King & Spalding

Preventing Conflict in Africa: Possibilities ofPeace EnforcementBy Robert I. Rotberg and Ericka A.Albaugh(World Peace Foundation, 2000)

A new report from the WPF Program onIntrastate Conflict, Conflict Prevention, andConflict Resolution focuses on interventionefforts in African civil wars.

The report looks at conflicts in Angola,Burundi, Congo, and Sudan and asks whetherAfrican crisis response forces would be capableof intervening in the early stages of conflict, andhow such forces could be summoned, com-posed, and deployed. Robert Rotberg is Direc-tor of BCSIA’s WPF Program on IntrastateConflict. (www.ksg.harvard.edu/bcsia/wpf)

Signaturgesetz-PraxiskommentarBy Viktor Mayer-Schönberger(Verlag Orac, 1999)

The success of e-commerce depends on thetrust of participants in transacting online.“Digi-tal signatures” are used to guarantee the secu-

rity and confidentiality of communication—andthus to enhance trust. But in order for digitalsignatures to become fully accepted, a legalframework is necessary.

The book introduces the legal audience to the technical and organizational implica-tions of digital signatures and related trustinfrastructures.

It reviews and analyzes in detail the Euro-pean Union Directive of 1999, creating a legalframework for the use of digital signatures foronline transactions, and the Austrian SignatureAct, the first national law implementing the EUDirective.Viktor Mayer-Schönberger is a facultyaffiliate of the Harvard Information Infrastruc-ture Project. (www.ksg.harvard.edu/iip/)

The Pervasive Role of Science,Technology,and Health in Foreign Policy: Imperativesfor the Department of State(National Academy Press, 1999)

Robert A. Frosch, a BCSIA Senior ResearchAssociate, chaired the Committee on Science,Technology, and Health Aspects of the ForeignPolicy Agenda of the United States at theNational Research Council.

International Security,Vol. 24, No.3Steven E. Miller, Michael E. Brown,Owen R. Coté, Jr., Sean M. Lynn-Jones,and Diane J. McCree, Editors (The MIT Press,Winter 1999/2000)

In this issue Eugene Gholz and HarveySapolsky, both of MIT, argue that the post-Cold War restructuring of the U.S. militaryhas not been as extreme as many claim.George Washington University’s DavidShambaugh assesses the perceptions andattitudes of China’s military leaders at theturn of the 21st century. David Baldwin ofColumbia University examines the eco-nomic sanctions debate and its influence offoreign policymaking. Charles King ofGeorgetown University and Neil Melvin ofthe University of Leeds evaluate the effectof “diasporas” on the international relationsof three Soviet successor states: Russia,Ukraine, and Kazakhstan.The issue con-cludes with an article by Ronald GrigorSuny of the University of Chicago who chal-lenges the idea that ethnicity is “essentialist,holistic, and homogeneous.” (www.ksg.har-vard/edu/IS)

BCSIA News • 11

The Committee produced a report that outlines the contributions that science,technology, and health expertise and activitiescan make in the formulation and implementa-tion of foreign policy and recommends a num-ber of measures designed to improve scienceliteracy in the State Department.(books.nap.edu/index.html)

Economics and the Environment: SelectedReadings, 4th editionRobert N. Stavins, Editor(W.W. Norton & Company, 1999)

Designed to complement standard textbookdepictions, this reader offers students a firmfooting in the primary literature in the field ofenvironmental economics.

The readings in this volume span the fullscope of environmental economics and theauthors comprise a veritable Who’s Who of thefield. Robert Stavins is Faculty Chair of BCSIA’sEnvironment and Natural Resources Program.(www.wwnorton.com/college/econ)

Industrializing Knowledge: University-Industry Linkages in Japan and the United StatesLewis M. Branscomb, Fumio Kodama, andRichard Florida, Editors(The MIT Press, 1999)

To increase understanding of the role of univer-sities as sources of science-based innovations,this book compares the economic effects ofuniversity research in the U.S. and Japan.

Incorporating historical, sociological, andindustrial perspectives, the book discusses boththe mechanics of university-industry interac-tions and how policies encouraging such inter-actions can address regional and national needs.Lewis Branscomb is former Director of theHarvard Information Infrastructure Project.(www.ksg.harvard.edu/iip/)

New Strategies for New Challenges:Corporate Innovation in the United States and Japan(National Academy Press, 1999)

Lewis M. Branscomb is co-chair of a Joint TaskForce on Corporate Innovation of the NationalResearch Council and the Japan Society for thePromotion of Science.

The report of the task force explores theways in which American and Japanese compa-nies are changing their technological innovationstrategies and practices and assesses how sci-ence and technology systems are converging.(www.ksg.harvard.edu/iip/)

General Henry H. Shelton, Chairmanof the Joint Chiefs of Staff, visited the

Kennedy School in January and addressedthe Executive Program for General Officersof the Russian Federation and the UnitedStates directed by Ambassador RobertBlackwill, faculty chair of the U.S.-RussianNational Security Project.

Parts of Gen. Shelton’s speech areexcerpted here.

Nuclear Weapons Our two nations have extensive experi-

ence with the frightening potential ofnuclear weapons. Together we can use ourknowledge and experience to work as part-ners to stop the proliferation of weaponsof mass destruction and keep the thresh-old so high that nuclear weapons, as wellas chemical and biological weapons, arenever used again.

We can and should build on the part-nership we have established through ourwork together in the Cooperative ThreatReduction Program, which has allowedboth sides to accelerate START requiredreductions, and advance mutual goals inthe chemical and biological arena.

A tangible example of this commitmentto control nuclear weapons is the START IItreaty. START II is important because itpromises a dramatic reduction of strategicnuclear forces and directs our strategicrelationship towards nuclear cooperation.

The next critical step is for [the Russ-ian] Duma to ratify START II. Ratificationwill pave the way for the U.S. and Russia toimmediately begin discussing furtherreductions in deployed strategic systemsthrough START III.

National Missile Defense There is a growing threat from rogue

states armed with the latest missile technol-ogy. This new threat has generated the

desire in the U.S. to develop a nationalmissile defense system.

Today it is possible for a rogue state orextremist group to have ballistic missileswith a range capable of reaching Americanand Russian territory.

Our proposed national missile defensesystem will be designed to defend the terri-tory and population of the United Statesagainst a limited missile attack.

It is important to understand thatNMD does not pose a threat to the deter-rent value of Russia’s formidable strategicforces since the proposed system wouldcounter only a few incoming warheads.

NMD is required to counter a growingthreat. We believe the threat is very real,and a missile strike by a terrorist group ora rogue state on one of our cities without ameans to protect ourselves is unthinkable.

CooperationToday we stand together at the begin-

ning of this new century facing mutualglobal challenges. In the months and yearsahead we will be involved in decisions that will determine whether there will bemore or less opportunity for peace, moreor less shared understanding, and more orless trust.

And we both know that the path backto an adversarial relationship is all too easy.We must not let this happen.

While Russia and the United States havedifferences, we have much more in com-mon. We have far more to gain from coop-eration than from confrontation.

I challenge each of you here tonight tohelp create a future where we cooperate toachieve mutual security goals whereverpossible, discuss those points where wecannot agree, and make it a certainty thatdisagreement does not lead to conflict or areturn to an armed standoff.

General Shelton Outlines Security Agenda

General Henry H. Sheltonspoke (with the aid of aninterpreter) to GeneralValery Manilov, First DeputyChief of the Russian GeneralStaff, at a dinner on January19, 2000 as AmbassadorRobert Blackwill looked on.

The Robert and Renée Belfer Centerfor Science and International AffairsGraham T. Allison, Director79 John F. Kennedy StreetCambridge, MA 02138Tel: 617-495-1400Fax: 617-495-8963www.ksg.harvard.edu/bcsiabcsia_ksg@harvard.edu

BCSIA NewsEditor: Anya SchmemannCommunications Officeranya_schmemann@harvard.edu

12 • BCSIA News

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For years, the Belfer Center has been aleader in efforts to counter the threat

of “loose nukes” in the former SovietUnion.

This spring, three new publications willdraw attention to the continuing urgencyof the threat and lay out comprehensivestrategies to reduce the risks associatedwith the former Soviet nuclear arsenal.

A study on Managing the GlobalNuclear Materials Threat: Policy Recom-mendations, from a bipartisan groupchaired by former Senator Sam Nunn, hasbeen released by the Center for Strategicand International Studies in Washington.

BCSIA Director Graham Allison servedon the study’s Senior Policy Panel; Allisonand Matthew Bunn, Assistant Director ofthe Science Technology and Public PolicyProgram, also served as chair and deputy-chair of Task Force I, which laid out abroad range of specific initiatives toaddress the loose nukes threat.

A second report, The Next Wave:Urgently Needed New Steps to Control War-heads and Fissile Material, drafted byBunn, will be issued as a joint report of theCarnegie Endowment for InternationalPeace and the BCSIA Project on Managingthe Atom.

The report warns that while currentprograms to address this threat have madeenormous progress, they “fall woefullyshort” if judged against the urgency of the

program.MPC&A is the cooperative effort to

improve security and accounting fornuclear material in the former SovietUnion. The report describes how the effortcould be both accelerated and sustainedover time, and how a new level of partner-ship can be forged with participants in theformer Soviet states.

threat to U.S. security. The report outlines acomprehensive agenda for action and offersmuch detail on the recommended steps.

Finally, a third report, being written byBunn with Oleg Bukharin and KennethLuongo of the Russian-American NuclearSecurity Advisory Council (RANSAC),zeroes in specifically on the material pro-tection, control, and accounting (MPC&A)

A decaying and poorly protected building in Moscow in 1994—now with upgraded secu-rity thanks to U.S. assistance—that houses enough highly-enriched uranium for a nuclear bomb.

Stepping up to the Challenge of Loose Nukes