the roel of carbon in climate change: a life.cycle thinking approach to a complex issuee
DESCRIPTION
Dr. Marco Raugei, responsable del área de Transporte y Energía de la Cátedra UNESCO de Ciclo de de Vida y Cambio Climático fue invitado para dar una ponencia en el prestigioso British Carbon Group, en Cambridge, el pasado 20 de diciembre. La ponencia, abordó, el complejo tema de las emisiones de carbono antropogénicas y su interacción con el ciclo global del carbono.TRANSCRIPT
The role of carbon in climate change:
a life‐cycle‐thinking approach to a complex issue
Dr. Marco Raugei The Bri(sh Carbon Group, University of Manchester
20th December 2012
The Greenhouse Effect
4 UNESCO Chair in Life Cycle and Climate Change
With NO Greenhouse Effect the avg. temperature of the Earth would be -19˚C (-2 ˚F)!
H2O, CO2, CH4, N2O, …
Exchange pool:
• The primary source of carbon to the atmosphere is outgassing from the Earth's interior at mid‐ocean ridges, hotspot volcanoes, and subduc(on‐related volcanic arcs. • Some of the outgassed carbon remains as CO2 in the atmosphere • Some is dissolved in the oceans as HCO3
‐
• Some is fixed by photosynthesis as biomass
Reserve pool:
• Carbon is slowly removed into long‐term storage through • Pedogenesis (soil forma(on) • Fossil fuel forma>on (especially coal and black shales) • Sedimentary carbonate rock forma>on (largely biogenic)
The Carbon Cycle
6 UNESCO Chair in Life Cycle and Climate Change
Source: J.R. Petit, J. Jouzel. et. al. Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420 000 years from the Vostok ice core in Antarctica, Nature 399, pp 429‐436, 1999
10 UNESCO Chair in Life Cycle and Climate Change
Climate records
T ∝ 18O/16O ratio
(1950)
(1950)
392
(2012)
Non‐linearity and unpredictability: Oceanic ‘conveyor belts’
16 UNESCO Chair in Life Cycle and Climate Change
Non‐linearity and unpredictability: El Niño Southern Oscill.
18 UNESCO Chair in Life Cycle and Climate Change
Two possible reac>ons
19 UNESCO Chair in Life Cycle and Climate Change
1. Anosognosia (noun): Real or feigned ignorance of the presence of disease.
2. Precau>onary principle: “if an ac(on or policy has a suspected risk of causing harm to the public or to the environment, in the absence of scien(fic consensus that the ac(on or policy is harmful, the burden of proof that it is not harmful falls on those taking the ac(on”.
• In some legal systems, as in the law of the European Union, the applica(on of the precau(onary principle has been made a statutory requirement.
Technological fixes: the importance of Life Cycle Thinking
20 UNESCO Chair in Life Cycle and Climate Change
Technological fixes: the importance of Life Cycle Thinking
21 UNESCO Chair in Life Cycle and Climate Change
• The search for alterna(ve (less carbon‐intensive) energy sources…
Technological fixes: the importance of Life Cycle Thinking
22 UNESCO Chair in Life Cycle and Climate Change
• The search for alterna(ve (less carbon‐intensive) energy sources…
…must obey the laws of physics!
Technological fixes: the importance of Life Cycle Thinking
23 UNESCO Chair in Life Cycle and Climate Change
EROI of Photovoltaics: new calcula>ons
25 UNESCO Chair in Life Cycle and Climate Change
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
mono‐c Si PV (PE‐eq.)
multi‐c Si PV (PE‐eq.)
ribbon Si PV (PE‐eq.)
CdTe PV (PE‐eq.)
Oil (min.) Oil (max.) Coal (min.)
Coal (max.)
EROI
Beyond technological fixes
27 UNESCO Chair in Life Cycle and Climate Change
I = P ∙ A ∙ T
Impact Population Affluence
Technology
Addressing ‘P’ and ‘A’
28 UNESCO Chair in Life Cycle and Climate Change
• ‘The Limits to Growth’ (Club of Rome/MIT, 1972)
• ‘De‐growth’ (Georgescu‐Roegen, 1979)
• ‘A Prosperous Way Down’ (Odum and Odum, 2001)
• ‘Sustainable retreat rather than sustainable development’ (Lovelock, 2006)
Conclusions
29 UNESCO Chair in Life Cycle and Climate Change
• Recognizing the problem
• Life Cycle Thinking
• ‘Out of the box’ thinking
• Paradigm shiZ
• ‘Way down’ does NOT have to mean ‘back to the cave’!
Thank you
30 UNESCO Chair in Life Cycle and Climate Change
• Ques>ons?
• Comments?
• Concerns?
Dr. Marco Raugei ([email protected])
UNESCO Chair in Life Cycle and Climate Change,
ESCI – Pompeu Fabra University, Barcelona, Spain Faculty of Technology, Design and Environment, Oxford Brookes University, Oxford, UK Center for Life Cycle Analysis, Columbia University, New York (NY), USA