the role of agricultural practices in keeping or ... · grazing land -...
TRANSCRIPT
The role of agricultural practices in keeping or increasing soil organic matter
Pete Smith
Professor of Soils & Global ChangeInstitute of Biological & Environmental SciencesSchool of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen,Scotland, UK. E-mail: [email protected]
Climate change – can soil make a difference? Brussels, Thursday 12th June 2008
PICCMATClimSoilCLIMATE CHANGE SOIL CARBON
Outline
• Soils in the global C cycle• Mechanisms for soil C sequestration • Global potential for soil C sequestration• Response of soil C sinks to future
climate change• Conclusions
Soils in the global C cycle
http://www.global-greenhouse-warming.com/global-carbon-cycle.html
Mechanisms for soil C sequestration
How does soil C sequestration work?
Organic carbon source
Add to soil
C in soil
CO2
Some C is stabilisedin the soil
Soil
Soil C cycle
e.g. residue management,organic amendments, increased plant C input…
Increase C inputs…e.g. restore & rewet farmedorganic soils
...or reduce C losses
– reduced disturbance
= microbe C = C inside aggregate
C
No-till
C
C
CC
C
C
TillageTillage breaksopen aggregates
= weatheringKey:
COrganic material (C)more exposed to microbial attack and weathering
How does soil C sequestration work?
Activity Practice Specific management change Increase C inputs
Decrease C losses
Reduce disturbance
Cropland management Agronomy Increased productivity XRotations XCatch crops XLess fallow XMore legumes XDeintensification XImproved cultivars X
Nutrient management Fertilizer placement XFertilizer timing X
Tillage / residue management Reduced tillage XZero tillage XReduced residue removal X XReduced residue burning X X
Upland water management Irrigation XDrainage X
Set-aside and land use change Set aside X XWetlands X X
Agroforestry Tree crops inc. Shelterbelts etc. X XGrazing land management Livestock grazing intensity Livestock grazing intensity X
Fertilization Fertilization XFire management Fire management XSpecies introduction Species introduction XMore legumes More legumes XIncreased productivity Increased productivity X
Organic soils Restoration Rewetting / abandonment X XDegraded lands Restoration Restoration X X X
Mechanisms for soil C sequestration in agriculture
Smith et al. (2007a)
Global potential for soil C sequestration
Method
• Database of over 200 experiments to derive per-area / per-animal mitigation efficiencies for >60 agricultural mitigation options, for four climate zones
• Mean estimates and low and high 95% CI values derived from mixed effects modelling
• Applied to appropriate agricultural (crop, grass) areas in each climate zone in each region
Smith et al. (2007a)
Tilla
ge F
acto
rs
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
No-Till
Reduced
TillageConventional
Tillage
1.0
9%
16%
Temperate MoistTemperate DryTropical MoistTropical Dry
3%
16%
10% 10%
23%
17%
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
Res
pons
e R
atio
s
Reduced Till No-Till
Ogle et al. (2003)
Method
• Database of over 200 experiments to derive per-area / per-animal mitigation efficiencies for >60 agricultural mitigation options, for four climate zones
• Mean estimates and low and high 95% CI values derived from mixed effects modelling
• Applied to appropriate agricultural (crop, grass) areas in each climate zone in each region
Smith et al. (2007a, 2008)
CO2 (t CO2 ha-1 y-1) CH4 (t CO2-eq. ha-1 y-1) N2O (t CO2-eq. ha-1 y-1) All GHG (t CO2-eq. ha-1 y-1)
Climate zone Activity PracticeMean
estimateLow High Mean
estimateLow High Mean
estimateLow High Mean
estimateLow High
Cool-dry Croplands agronomy 0.29 0.07 0.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.20 0.39 0.07 0.71Croplands nutrient management 0.26 -0.22 0.73 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.01 0.32 0.33 -0.21 1.05Croplands tillage and residue management 0.15 -0.48 0.77 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 -0.04 0.09 0.17 -0.52 0.86Croplands water management 1.14 -0.55 2.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.14 -0.55 2.82Croplands set-aside and LUC 1.61 -0.07 3.30 0.02 0.00 0.00 2.30 0.00 4.60 3.93 -0.07 7.90Croplands agro-forestry 0.15 -0.48 0.77 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 -0.04 0.09 0.17 -0.52 0.86Grasslands grazing, fertilizaltion, fire 0.11 -0.55 0.77 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 -0.54 0.79Organic soils restoration 36.67 3.67 69.67 -3.32 -0.05 -15.30 0.16 0.05 0.28 33.51 3.67 54.65Degraded landsrestoration 3.45 -0.37 7.26 0.08 0.04 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.53 -0.33 7.40Manure / biosol application 1.54 -3.19 6.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.17 1.30 1.54 -3.36 7.57Bioenergy soils only 0.15 -0.48 0.77 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 -0.04 0.09 0.17 -0.52 0.86
Cool-moist Croplands agronomy 0.88 0.51 1.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.20 0.98 0.51 1.45Croplands nutrient management 0.55 0.01 1.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.01 0.32 0.62 0.02 1.42Croplands tillage and residue management 0.51 0.00 1.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 -0.04 0.09 0.53 -0.04 1.12Croplands water management 1.14 -0.55 2.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.14 -0.55 2.82Croplands set-aside and LUC 3.04 1.17 4.91 0.02 0.00 0.00 2.30 0.00 4.60 5.36 1.17 9.51Croplands agro-forestry 0.51 0.00 1.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 -0.04 0.09 0.53 -0.04 1.12Grasslands grazing, fertilizaltion, fire 0.81 0.11 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.80 0.11 1.50Organic soils restoration 36.67 3.67 69.67 -3.32 -0.05 -15.30 0.16 0.05 0.28 33.51 3.67 54.65Degraded landsrestoration 3.45 -0.37 7.26 1.00 0.69 1.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.45 0.32 8.51Manure / biosol application 2.79 -0.62 6.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.17 1.30 2.79 -0.79 7.50Bioenergy soils only 0.51 0.00 1.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 -0.04 0.09 0.53 -0.04 1.12
Warm-dry Croplands agronomy 0.29 0.07 0.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.20 0.39 0.07 0.71Croplands nutrient management 0.26 -0.22 0.73 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.01 0.32 0.33 -0.21 1.05Croplands tillage and residue management 0.33 -0.73 1.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 -0.04 0.09 0.35 -0.77 1.48Croplands water management 1.14 -0.55 2.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.14 -0.55 2.82Croplands set-aside and LUC 1.61 -0.07 3.30 0.02 0.00 0.00 2.30 0.00 4.60 3.93 -0.07 7.90Croplands agro-forestry 0.33 -0.73 1.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 -0.04 0.09 0.35 -0.77 1.48Grasslands grazing, fertilizaltion, fire 0.11 -0.55 0.77 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 -0.55 0.77Organic soils restoration 73.33 7.33 139.33 -3.32 -0.05 -15.30 0.16 0.05 0.28 70.18 7.33 124.31Degraded landsrestoration 3.45 -0.37 7.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.45 -0.37 7.26Manure / biosol application 1.54 -3.19 6.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.17 1.30 1.54 -3.36 7.57Bioenergy soils only 0.33 -0.73 1.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 -0.04 0.09 0.35 -0.77 1.48
Warm-moist Croplands agronomy 0.88 0.51 1.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.20 0.98 0.51 1.45Croplands nutrient management 0.55 0.01 1.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.01 0.32 0.62 0.02 1.42Croplands tillage and residue management 0.70 -0.40 1.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 -0.04 0.09 0.72 -0.44 1.89Croplands water management 1.14 -0.55 2.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.14 -0.55 2.82Croplands set-aside and LUC 3.04 1.17 4.91 0.02 0.00 0.00 2.30 0.00 4.60 5.36 1.17 9.51Croplands agro-forestry 0.70 -0.40 1.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 -0.04 0.09 0.72 -0.44 1.89Grasslands grazing, fertilizaltion, fire 0.81 0.11 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.81 0.11 1.50Organic soils restoration 73.33 7.33 139.33 -3.32 -0.05 -15.30 0.16 0.05 0.28 70.18 7.33 124.31Degraded landsrestoration 3.45 -0.37 7.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.45 -0.37 7.26Manure / biosol application 2.79 -0.62 6.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.17 1.30 2.79 -0.79 7.50Bioenergy soils only 0.70 -0.40 1.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 -0.04 0.09 0.72 -0.44 1.89
Per-area / per-animal mitigation potential
For 14 practices, for 4 climate zones, for CO2, N2O & CH4, estimates for mean and +/- 95%CI Smith et al. (2007a)
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
Cropland - agronomy
Cropland - nutrients
Cropland - tillage&residue
Cropland - water
Cropland - setaside&LUC
Cropland - agroforestry
Grazing land -nutrient&grazing&species
Degraded land restoration
Manure application
Sequestration underenergy crops
Practice
CO2 sink (t CO2 ha-1 yr-1) Soil C sequestration rates for cool dry clim
ate
Data from
: Smith et al. (2007a)
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
Cropland - agronomy
Cropland - nutrients
Cropland - tillage&residue
Cropland - water
Cropland - setaside&LUC
Cropland - agroforestry
Grazing land -nutrient&grazing&species
Degraded land restoration
Manure application
Sequestration underenergy crops
Practice
CO2 sink (t CO2 ha-1 yr-1)
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Cropland - agronomy
Cropland - nutrients
Cropland - tillage&residue
Cropland - water
Cropland - setaside&LUC
Cropland - agroforestry
Grazing land -nutrient&grazing&species
Degraded land restoration
Manure application
Sequestration underenergy crops
Practice
CO2 sink (t CO2 ha-1 yr-1)
Dry
Moist
CoolWarm
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
Cropland - agronomy
Cropland - nutrients
Cropland - tillage&residue
Cropland - water
Cropland - setaside&LUC
Cropland - agroforestry
Grazing land -nutrient&grazing&species
Degraded land restoration
Manure application
Sequestration underenergy crops
Practice
CO2 sink (t CO2 ha-1 yr-1)
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Cropland - agronomy
Cropland - nutrients
Cropland - tillage&residue
Cropland - water
Cropland - setaside&LUC
Cropland - agroforestry
Grazing land -nutrient&grazing&species
Degraded land restoration
Manure application
Sequestration underenergy crops
Practice
CO2 sink (t CO2 ha-1 yr-1)
Soil C sequestration rates in different clim
ates
Data from
: Smith et al. (2007a)
Soil C emission reduction rates for organic soil restoration
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Cool climates - Organic soil restoration Warm climates - Organic soil restoration
Practice
CO
2 sin
k (t
CO 2
ha-1
yr-1
)
Data from: Smith et al. (2007a)
Organic soil restoration vs. m
ineral soil sequestration
-20 0 20 40 60 80
100
120140
160
Cropland - agronomy
Cropland - nutrients
Cropland - tillage&residue
Cropland - water
Cropland - setaside&LUC
Cropland - agroforestry
Grazing land -nutrient&grazing&species
Degraded land restoration
Manure application
Sequestration underenergy crops
Organic soil restoration
Practice
CO2 sink (t CO2 ha-1 yr-1)
Data from
: Smith et al. (2007a)
Method
• Database of over 200 experiments to derive per-area / per-animal mitigation efficiencies for >60 agricultural mitigation options, for four climate zones
• Mean estimates and low and high 95% CI values derived from mixed effects modelling
• Applied to appropriate agricultural (crop, grass) areas in each climate zone in each region
Smith et al. (2007a, 2008)
IPCC AR4 Agricultural GHG MitigationFAO AEZ Database (e.g. showing regions)
IPCC AR4 Agricultural GHG MitigationFAO AEZ Database (e.g. showing thermal climate)
IPCC AR4 Agricultural GHG MitigationFAO AEZ Database (e.g. showing production constraints)
IPCC AR4 Agricultural GHG MitigationFAO AEZ Database (e.g. showing land cover)
Global m
itigation potential in agriculture
-200 0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Cropland management
Water management
Rice management
Setaside, LUC &agroforestry
Grazing landmanagement
Restore cultivatedorganic soils
Restore degradedlands
Bioenergy (soilscomponent)
Livestock
Manure management
Mitigation m
easure
Global biophysical mitigation potential (Mt CO2-eq. yr-1)
N2O
CH
4C
O2
Smith et al. (2007a)
-200 0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Southeast Asia
South America
East Asia
South Asia
Eastern Africa
Russian Federation
North America
Western Europe
Western Africa
Central Asia
Northern Europe
Middle Africa
Eastern Europe
Oceania
Southern Europe
Central America
Northern Africa
Western Asia
Southern Africa
Carribean
Japan
Polynesia
Region
Mt CO2-eq. yr-1
Smith et al. (2007a)
High and low
estimates of the
mitigation potential in each region
Effect of C price on im
plementation
Smith et al. (2007a)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Restore cultivatedorganic soils
Croplandmanagement
Grazing landmanagement
Restore degradedlands
Rice management
Livestock
Setaside, LUC &agroforestry
Manuremanagement
Measure
Mt CO2-eq. yr-1
up to 20 USD
t CO
2-eq.-1up to 50 U
SD t C
O2-eq.-1
up to 100 USD
t CO
2-eq.-1
Global mitigation potential in agriculture (Mt CO2-eq. yr-1)
Price range (USD t CO2-eq. -1)
Scenario 0-20 0-50 0-1000->>100 (technical
potential)
B1 1925 2384 3149 5480
A1b 1982 2439 3254 5670
B2 2047 2495 3330 5844
A2 2119 2549 3330 5957
Smith et al. (2007a, b)Over 70% of the potential is in developing countries
Energy supply
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
<20 <50<10
0
<20 <50<10
0
GtCO2-eq
Transport Buildings Industry Agriculture Forestry Waste
Non-OECD/EITEITOECDWorld total
US$/tCO2-eq
Global economic mitigation potential for different sectors at different carbon prices
IPCC WGIII (2007)
How important is this C sequestration potential?
• Even at 100 USD t CO2-eq.-1, sequestration potential is 3100-3300 Mt CO2-eq. yr-1
• This is equivalent to less than 1000 Mt C yr-1
or <1 Pg per year• Atmospheric CO2-C is increasing at a rate of
3.2 Pg C yr-1 so soil C sequestration can mitigate less than 1/3 of this increase and less than 1/7 of fossil fuel C emissions
• So is it worth using C sequestration at all?
Why use C sequestration?
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IPCC TAR WGIII (2001)
The energy / emission gap under different SRES scenarios
• Current yearly atmospheric C increase = 3.2 ± 0.1 Pg C y-1
• Emission gaps of up to 25 Pg C y-1 by 2100 Smith (2004)
Why use sequestration?
Critical period determining trajectory IPCC (2001)
Response of soil C sinks to future climate change
Uncertainty in cropland & grassland SOC stock changes due to climate, NPP & technology change
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
Year
SOC
stoc
k (t
C h
a-1)
Cropland
Grassland
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
Year
SOC
stoc
k (t
C h
a-1)
(HadCM3-A2)
Climate Only Climate & NPP Climate & NPP & TechMinimumMaximum
J.U. Smith et al. (2005)
Uncertainty onAnthropogenic Carbon
Emissions
Up to ~450 ppm
Friedlingstein et al. 2006 IPCC SRES 2000
Vulnerability of the Carbon Cycle in the 21st century
Up to ~250 ppm
Uncertainty of theBiospheric-Carbon-Climate
Feedback
Slide courtesy of Pep Canadell, GCP
Conclusions• Soil C sequestration is a globally significant
climate mitigation measure• Soil C sequestration is cost competitive with
climate mitigation measures in other sectors• But - soil C sequestration is not permanent and is
of limited duration (due to sink saturation)• Response of soil C sinks to future climate change
remains uncertain• Protecting large soil C stocks (e.g. peatlands) is
very important for avoiding emissions
Thank you for your attention