the role of latin america in the world economy by dale w. jorgenson harvard university october 6,...
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The Role of Latin Americain the World Economy
By
Dale W. JorgensonHarvard University
October 6, 2008Seminario Internacional
Fundacion BBVA – Ivie 2008Buenos Aires
http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/jorgenson
Economic Growth in the Information Age
INTRODUCTION:
Prices of Information Technology
ROLE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY:
IT Prices and the Cost of Capital
WORLD GROWTH RESURGENCE:
IT Investment and Productivity Growth
ECONOMICS ON INTERNET TIME:
The New Research Agenda
HOLDING QUALITY CONSTANTMatched Models and Hedonics
SOFTWARE:
Prepackaged, Custom, and Own-Account.
SEMICONDUCTOR PRICE INDEXES:
Memory and Logic Chips.
COMPUTER PRICE INDEXES:
The BEA-IBM Collaboration.
COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT:
Terminal, Switching, and Transmission.
Relative Prices of Computers and Semiconductors, 1960-2006All price indexes are divided by the output price index
Computers Memory Logic
ROLE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY:IT Prices, Investment, and Productivity.
CAPITAL CONTRIBUTION BY TYPE:
Computers, Communications Equipment, and Software.
INPUT SHARES OF IT:
Computers, Communications Equipment, and Software.
CAPITAL CONTRIBUTION:
IT vs. Non-IT Capital Services.
U.S. Capital Input Contribution of Information Technology
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
1960-1995 1995-2000 2000-2006
An
nu
al C
on
trib
uti
on
(%
)
Non-IT Capital Services IT Capital Services
Average annual growth rates, weighted by the income share.
World Capital Input Contribution of Information TechnologyA
nn
ual
Co
ntr
ibu
tio
n (
%)
Annual percentage growth rates, weighted by income shares
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.0019
89-1
995
1995
-200
020
00-2
006
1989
-199
519
95-2
000
2000
-200
6
1989
-199
519
95-2
000
2000
-200
6
1989
-199
5
1995
-200
020
00-2
006
1989
-199
519
95-2
000
2000
-200
6
1989
-199
519
95-2
000
2000
-200
6
1989
-199
5
1995
-200
020
00-2
006
1989
-199
519
95-2
000
2000
-200
6
World G7 DevelopingAsia
Non-G7 LatinAmerica
EasternEurope
Sub-Saharan
Africa
N. Africa& M.East
Non-IT Capital IT Capital
G7 Capital Input Contribution of Information TechnologyA
nn
ual
Co
ntr
ibu
tio
n (
%)
Annual percentage growth rates, weighted by income shares
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.5019
89-1
995
1995
-200
0
2000
-200
6
1989
-199
5
1995
-200
0
2000
-200
6
1989
-199
5
1995
-200
0
2000
-200
6
1989
-199
5
1995
-200
0
2000
-200
6
1989
-199
5
1995
-200
0
2000
-200
6
1989
-199
5
1995
-200
0
2000
-200
6
1989
-199
5
1995
-200
0
2000
-200
6
US Canada UK France Germany Italy Japan
Non-IT Capital IT Capital
Capital Input Contribution: Latin AmericaA
nn
ua
l C
on
trib
uti
on
(%
)
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
19
89
-19
95
19
95
-20
00
20
00
-20
06
19
89
-19
95
19
95
-20
00
20
00
-20
06
19
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-19
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19
95
-20
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20
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-20
06
19
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95
-20
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20
00
-20
06
19
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95
-20
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00
-20
06
19
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95
19
95
-20
00
20
00
-20
06
19
89
-19
95
19
95
-20
00
20
00
-20
06
Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Venezuela,RB
Non-IT Capital IT Capital
Developing and Transition Economy Contribution of Information TechnologyA
nn
ual
Co
ntr
ibu
tio
n (
%)
Annual percentage growth rates, weighted by income shares
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
19
89
-19
95
19
95
-20
00
20
00
-20
06
19
89
-19
95
19
95
-20
00
20
00
-20
06
19
89
-19
95
19
95
-20
00
20
00
-20
06
19
89
-19
95
19
95
-20
00
20
00
-20
06
19
89
-19
95
19
95
-20
00
20
00
-20
06
19
89
-19
95
19
95
-20
00
20
00
-20
06
19
89
-19
95
19
95
-20
00
20
00
-20
06
Brazil China India Indonesia Mexico RussianFederation
SouthKorea
Non-IT Capital IT Capital
WORLD GROWTH RESURGENCE: IT Investment and Productivity Growth.
LABOR INPUT GROWTH:
Hours Worked and Labor Quality.
TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY:
IT-Production versus Non-IT Production.
SOURCES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH:
Capital Input, Labor Input, and TFP.
Sources of U.S. Economic Growth
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
1 2 3
An
nu
al C
on
trib
uti
on
(%
)
Labor Hours Labor Quality Non-IT Capital Services IT Capital Services TFP
Average annual growth rates, weighted by the income share.
Sources of World Economic Growth
An
nu
al C
on
trib
uti
on
(%
)
Annual percentage growth rates
-7.00
-5.00
-3.00
-1.00
1.00
3.00
5.00
7.00
1989
-199
5
1995
-200
0
2000
-200
6
1989
-199
5
1995
-200
0
2000
-200
6
1989
-199
5
1995
-200
0
2000
-200
6
1989
-199
5
1995
-200
0
2000
-200
6
1989
-199
5
1995
-200
0
2000
-200
6
1989
-199
5
1995
-200
0
2000
-200
6
1989
-199
5
1995
-200
0
2000
-200
6
1989
-199
5
1995
-200
0
2000
-200
6
World G7 Developing Asia Non-G7 Latin America Eastern Europe Sub-SaharanAfrica
N. Africa &M. East
Hours Quality Non-IT Capital IT Capital TFP
Sources of G7 Economic GrowthA
nn
ua
l C
on
trib
uti
on
(%
)
Annual percentage growth rates
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
19
89
-19
95
19
95
-20
00
20
00
-20
06
19
89
-19
95
19
95
-20
00
20
00
-20
06
19
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95
19
95
-20
00
20
00
-20
06
19
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95
-20
00
20
00
-20
06
19
89
-19
95
19
95
-20
00
20
00
-20
06
19
89
-19
95
19
95
-20
00
20
00
-20
06
19
89
-19
95
19
95
-20
00
20
00
-20
06
US Canada UK France Germany Italy Japan
Hours Quality Non-IT Capital IT Capital TFP
Sources of Growth by Country: Latin America
An
nu
al
Co
ntr
ibu
tio
n (
%)
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.001
98
9-1
99
5
19
95
-20
00
20
00
-20
06
19
89
-19
95
19
95
-20
00
20
00
-20
06
19
89
-19
95
19
95
-20
00
20
00
-20
06
19
89
-19
95
19
95
-20
00
20
00
-20
06
19
89
-19
95
19
95
-20
00
20
00
-20
06
19
89
-19
95
19
95
-20
00
20
00
-20
06
19
89
-19
95
19
95
-20
00
20
00
-20
06
Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Venezuela,RB
Hours Quality Non-IT Capital IT Capital TFP
Sources of Growth for Developing and Transition EconomiesA
nn
ua
l C
on
trib
uti
on
(%
)
Annual percentage growth rates
-9.00
-7.00
-5.00
-3.00
-1.00
1.00
3.00
5.00
7.00
9.00
11.001
98
9-1
99
5
19
95
-20
00
20
00
-20
06
19
89
-19
95
19
95
-20
00
20
00
-20
06
19
89
-19
95
19
95
-20
00
20
00
-20
06
19
89
-19
95
19
95
-20
00
20
00
-20
06
19
89
-19
95
19
95
-20
00
20
00
-20
06
19
89
-19
95
19
95
-20
00
20
00
-20
06
19
89
-19
95
19
95
-20
00
20
00
-20
06
Brazil China India Indonesia Mexico RussianFederation
South Korea
Hours Quality Non-IT Capital IT Capital TFP
RESEARCH ON ECONOMIC GROWTH:
Relative Importance of Investment and Productivity
OFFICIAL STATISTICS:
Implementation of a New Architecture for the National Accounts
POLICY ANALYSIS:
Potential Growth in Latin America and the World Economy
ECONOMIC RESEARCH, OFFICIAL STATISTICS, AND POLICY ANALYSIS
World and Major Regions:Growth Projections, 2006-2016
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
World G7 DevelopingAsia
Non-G7 Latin America EasternEurope
Sub-SaharaAfrica
N. Africa andMiddle-East
Productivity Growth GDP Growth GDP per Capita Growth
G7: Growth Projections, 2006-2016
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Canada France Germany Italy Japan United Kingdom United States
Productivity Growth GDP Growth GDP per Capita Growth
Major Developing and Transition Economies: Growth Projections, 2006-2016
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Brazil China India Indonesia Mexico Russia South Korea
Productivity Growth GDP Growth GDP per Capita Growth
Latin America: Growth Projections, 2006-2016
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Venezuela, RB
Productivity Growth GDP Growth GDP per Capita Growth
CURRENT RELEASE:
March 2008
25 EU ECONOMIES:
Australia, Canada, Japan, Korea, and the U.S.
EU KLEMS PROJECT
COMPLETION DATE:
June 30, 2008
SOURCES OF DATA:
Capital, Labor, and Intermediate Inputs