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The Role of Pollinators in Food Production and their Climate Vulnerability
Prof Simon G. Potts
8,400
Overview
Pollination and food security (values, status and trends, drivers)
Climate change threats: Spatial risks Temporal risks
Management and policy response options
SEI, Tallinn, 8 Nov 2016
Pollination and Food Security
SEI, Tallinn, 8 Nov 2016
Pollinators are diverse Wild
pollinators
Managed pollinators
More than 75% of leading food crops Almost 90% of the world’s flowering plants Rely, at least in part, on animal pollination
Wide reaching benefits
SEI, Tallinn, 8 Nov 2016
Oilseed rape/Canola
Soy
Coffee
Rice Wheat Cassava
Apple
Cocoa
Mango
Crop dependency varies
Global agriculture reliance More than 300% increase in volume of agricultural
production dependent on pollinators since 1961
2012 SEI, Tallinn, 8 Nov 2016
Economic value Annual market value linked to pollinators
is €211 – 518 billion
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Human health benefits
Chaplin-Kramer et al. 2014 PNAS; Smith et al. 2015 Lancet
Total pollinator loss: 71 M Vitamin A deficient
and 173 M folate deficient
Global health burden: 1.4 M more deaths p.a. SEI, Tallinn, 8 Nov 2016
Status of managed honeybees
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45% increase globally
Losses in N. America and many European countries
Global
China
USA ex-USSR Germany
Argentina Spain
Status of wild bees
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Europe has ~2,000 species of bee
26% of bumblebees are threatened
Experts identified climate change as one of the biggest threats
Nieto et al. 2015 European Red List of Bees. IUCN
Drivers of change Habitat loss,
fragmentation & degradation
Pathogens
Agro-chemicals
Climate change
Invasives
Interactions
Potts et al. (2010) TREE; Potts et al. (2016) Nature SEI, Tallinn, 8 Nov 2016
Climate Change Risks: Spatial
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Shifts in historical distributions
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110 years data for Europe and N. America (>3 M records) Shift to higher elevations among southern species Failure to track warming at Northern limits Range loss from Southern limits
Kerr et al. (2015) Science
Caught in climatic vice
SEI, Tallinn, 8 Nov 2016 Kerr et al. (2015) Science
Future trends
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Rasmont et al. 2015 Climatic Risk and Distribution Atlas of European Bumblebees
68 bumblebee species in Europe Some of the best crop pollinators In trouble…and more to come…
Nieto et al. 2015 European Red List of Bees. IUCN
Many species will shift northwards
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By 2100 Gain Status Quo Loss
Bombus terrestris Red List status: Least concern Very common generalist bee Europe’s top wild pollinator
Most Northern species will vanish
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By 2100 Gain Status Quo Loss
Bombus hyperboreus Red List status: vulnerable Artic tundra specialist bee
A minority of winners
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By 2100 Gain Status Quo Loss
Bombus argillaceus Red list status least concern Common and good pollinator
2050 projected orchards
Orchards under climate change
2050 projected pollinators
Current orchards
Polce et al. 2014 Global Ch. Biol.
AREA OF DISCONNECT
AREA OF OVERLAP
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Climate Change Risks: Temporal
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Temporal shifts in activity Historical flight data (1900 – 2007)
6 species of bee known to be important pollinators
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
1st o
bser
vatio
n da
y
Year
Andrena nitida
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Senapathi et al. 2016 in prep.
JAN
UA
RY
FE
BR
UA
RY
M
AR
CH
A
PR
IL
MA
Y
Apples: phenology shifts
Poor Pollination
▲
RISKS
▼
Lack of bee forage
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Management and policy response options
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Targeted habitat creation or
restoration to increase refuges (food, microclimatic shelter) and connectivity:
Protected Area networks
Agri-Environment Schemes
Translocation:
Wild or managed pollinators to ‘new’ isolated habitats
Minimise other pressures SEI, Tallinn, 8 Nov 2016
Options to reduce spatial risks
Annual crops:
Select varieties with flowering time matching pollinator activity
Switch to self- or wind-pollinated varieties
Perennial crops:
Short-term, supplement with managed pollinators
Long-term, replace with varieties with matched flowering times
For both:
Increase diversity of crops and uncultivated habitats
Manage adjacent habitats to support (alternative) wild pollinators
Options to reduce temporal risks
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Sown flower strip Organic farming
Does habitat creation work? Ef
fect
size
Grass or naturally regenerating strips
Scheper et al. (2013) Ecol. Lett. SEI, Tallinn, 8 Nov 2016
1. Pollination contributes to food security 2. Climate has already resulted in range
losses of bumblebees, and projections indicate greater losses to come
3. Climate will also alter phenologies of pollinators and crops
4. Wide range of potential responses but effectiveness largely untested, but show promise…
Conclusions
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Acknowledgements
Sustainable Crop Pollination (Insect Pollinators Initiative)
Status and Trends of European Pollinators (STEP)
UN Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services More info: www.IPBES.net [email protected]
SEI, Tallinn, 8 Nov 2016