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Page 1: The Safety of Carotid Artery Surgery and Stenting Doig - Thesis...The Safety of Carotid Artery Surgery and Stenting Submitted for the degree of MD (Res), UCL 2015 David Doig, MBChB,

The Safety of Carotid Artery Surgery and

Stenting

Submitted for the degree of MD (Res), UCL 2015

David Doig, MBChB, BScMedSci (Hons), MRCP (UK)

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1. Personal declaration

I, David Doig, confirm that the work presented in this thesis is my own, and has not

previously been submitted for a higher degree. Where information has been derived

from other sources, I confirm that this has been indicated in the thesis.

Dr David Doig MBChB, BScMedSci (Hons), MRCP (UK)

1.1.1 Funding declaration

ICSS was funded by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) and managed by the UK

National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) on behalf of the MRC-NIHR partnership.

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not

necessarily reflect those of the NIHR Health Services Research programme of the

Department of Health. Additional funding was supplied by grants from the Stroke

Association, Sanofi-Synthelabo and the European Union. This work was undertaken at

University College London, which received a proportion of funding from the UK

Department of Health’s National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research

Centres funding scheme. The funders of ICSS had no role in trial design, data

collection, analysis, or the writing of this thesis.

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2. Acknowledgements

I would like to acknowledge the huge contribution of the patients who enrolled in the

International Carotid Stenting Study, without whom none of our research would have

been possible. Their involvement with the trial will benefit countless other patients with

carotid artery stenosis.

This work was carried out at UCL under the supervision of Professor Martin Brown and

Dr Rolf Jäger. I thank them both for the opportunity to carry out this work and for their

advice throughout. Dr Leo Bonati of Universitätsspital Basel and Mr Toby Richards of

UCL provided academic support and critical comments on the work. Dr Stefan Brew

and Dr Matt Adams of UCLH NHS Trust provided training in radiological image

analysis. I am grateful to Dr Mark White of UCLH NHS Trust for technical support in

maintaining an imaging database for ICSS analyses. Ben Hobson at UCL collaborated

on several analyses and patiently evaluated hundreds of sets of vascular imaging.

Other ICSS investigators are listed in Appendix II and collaborated on publications

based on this work.

Roland Featherstone is the trial manager for ICSS and assisted with data cleaning and

preparation for analysis. Adrienne Wallis entered trial data. I am grateful to Joanna

Dobson and Liz Turner from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine who

provided statistical support and advice and helped to produce figures for this thesis.

Helen Tindall organized us all and provided encouragement. Fiona Kennedy gave a

second opinion on analysis results and kept us motivated.

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3. Personal contribution

The work presented in this thesis is my own, and is based on data from the

International Carotid Stenting Study, a multicentre international trial. A list of trial

investigators and trial centres is given in Chapter 24 (Appendix III). As a UCL Research

Associate I worked in the central trial office from December 2009 to December 2012

cleaning data and designing and performing the analyses set out in Chapters 15, 18

and 19. The analyses in Chapters 14, 16 and 17 were carried out with the practical

assistance and advice of statisticians at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical

Medicine who also helped prepare the forest plots of results as acknowledged in

Chapter 2. While clinical follow-up in ICSS continued I followed up our local trial

patients in person – taking clinical measurements, arranging further investigation and

adjusting their secondary prevention therapy as necessary.

A list of publications and presentations derived from this work is given in Chapters 10-

11.

Where tables or figures appear from other publications, appropriate copyright

permissions have been granted.

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4. Abstract

4.1.1 Introduction

Carotid endarterectomy (CEA) remains the standard of care for patients with greater

than 50% symptomatic carotid artery stenosis to prevent recurrent stroke. The

International Carotid Stenting Study (ICSS) compared the safety and efficacy of carotid

angioplasty and stenting (CAS), with CEA. This thesis aims to determine which

baseline patient characteristics, processes of care or vascular anatomical variants are

associated with risk of stroke, myocardial infarction (MI) or death within 30 days of

either procedure, and whether existing models to predict the risk of these complications

performed well in ICSS patients.

4.1.2 Methods

ICSS was a multicentre international randomized controlled open trial. Medically stable

patients with >50% symptomatic carotid artery stenosis due to atherosclerosis were

randomized to either CAS or CEA. Procedures were carried out by accredited

operators according to trial protocol.

4.1.3 Results

Women in ICSS experienced a higher risk of stroke, (MI) or death within 30 days of

CEA, although sex was not an independent risk factor for this endpoint. They also

experienced a significantly higher risk of haematoma and cranial nerve palsy after

surgery. The risk of surgery was not significantly influenced by type of anaesthesia,

surgical reconstruction or shunt use.

The risk of stroke, MI or death following CAS rose with increasing age and was higher

with open-cell design stents. The risk of CAS was not influenced by vascular

anatomical variation seen on pre-stenting catheter angiography. Cerebral protection

devices (CPDs), designed to prevent debris causing stroke, did not protect against

periprocedural stroke.

Existing risk scores for CEA and CAS tested in ICSS had insufficient power to

discriminate between low- and high-risk groups.

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4.1.4 Conclusions

New methods of predicting the risk of carotid revascularization are needed to allow

patients and clinicians to make informed choices about treatment for symptomatic

carotid artery stenosis.

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5. Table of contents

1. Personal declaration .............................................................................................. 2

2. Acknowledgements ................................................................................................ 3

3. Personal contribution ............................................................................................. 4

4. Abstract ................................................................................................................. 5

5. Table of contents ................................................................................................... 7

6. Table of figures .................................................................................................... 11

7. Table of tables ..................................................................................................... 12

8. Abbreviations ....................................................................................................... 14

9. MeSH Keywords .................................................................................................. 16

10. List of original publications derived from this work ............................................ 17

11. List of original presentations derived from this work ......................................... 19

12. Introduction and literature review ..................................................................... 21

Stroke and vascular disease ..................................................................... 21 12.1

Investigating carotid artery disease ........................................................... 23 12.2

Carotid endarterectomy ............................................................................. 26 12.3

Carotid angioplasty and stenting ............................................................... 30 12.4

From trial data to individual patients: predicting procedural risk ................. 42 12.5

The current status of CAS & CEA for symptomatic patients ...................... 47 12.6

This thesis ................................................................................................. 47 12.7

13. Methods – ICSS and the ICSS-MRI Substudy .................................................. 49

The International Carotid Stenting Study ................................................... 49 13.1

The ICSS-MRI Substudy ........................................................................... 54 13.2

CONSORT flow diagram ........................................................................... 55 13.3

Trial funding .............................................................................................. 55 13.4

14. Risk factors for stroke, myocardial infarction or death following carotid

endarterectomy ........................................................................................................... 57

Introduction ............................................................................................... 57 14.1

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Methods .................................................................................................... 57 14.2

Results ...................................................................................................... 59 14.3

Discussion and conclusion ........................................................................ 63 14.4

15. Validation of existing risk scores for carotid endarterectomy ............................ 67

Introduction ............................................................................................... 67 15.1

Methods .................................................................................................... 68 15.2

Results ...................................................................................................... 73 15.3

Discussion and conclusion ........................................................................ 82 15.4

16. Risk factors for, and impact of, cranial nerve palsy and haematoma following

carotid endarterectomy ............................................................................................... 85

Introduction ............................................................................................... 85 16.1

Methods .................................................................................................... 86 16.2

Results – cranial nerve palsy .................................................................... 87 16.3

Results – haematoma ............................................................................... 95 16.4

Results – impact of adding CNP to ICSS trial primary outcomes ............. 109 16.5

Results – influence of sex on combined outcomes .................................. 111 16.6

Discussion and conclusion ...................................................................... 113 16.7

17. Risk factors for stroke, myocardial infarction or death following carotid stenting

116

Introduction ............................................................................................. 116 17.1

Methods .................................................................................................. 116 17.2

Results .................................................................................................... 118 17.3

Discussion and conclusion ...................................................................... 127 17.4

18. Vascular anatomical factors influencing the risk of new ischaemic brain lesions

following carotid artery stenting ................................................................................. 132

Introduction ............................................................................................. 132 18.1

Methods .................................................................................................. 132 18.2

Results .................................................................................................... 137 18.3

Discussion and conclusions .................................................................... 148 18.4

19. Validation of an existing risk score for carotid stenting ................................... 151

Introduction ............................................................................................. 151 19.1

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Methods .................................................................................................. 152 19.2

Results .................................................................................................... 155 19.3

Discussion and conclusions .................................................................... 158 19.4

20. Discussion, conclusions and future directions ................................................ 161

Discussion of key findings ....................................................................... 161 20.1

Conclusions ............................................................................................ 162 20.2

Future directions – who should have what treatment? ............................. 163 20.3

21. Bibliography ................................................................................................... 167

22. Appendix I – ICSS post-treatment care questionnaire .................................... 199

23. Appendix II – ICSS cranial nerve palsy questionnaire .................................... 200

24. Appendix III – List of ICSS centres and investigators ..................................... 202

25. Appendix IV – ICSS trial protocol ................................................................... 207

Protocol summary ................................................................................... 207 25.1

Background ............................................................................................. 208 25.2

Trial design ............................................................................................. 213 25.3

Principal research questions to be addressed ......................................... 222 25.4

Learning curve ........................................................................................ 223 25.5

Effect of changes in technology during the course of the study ............... 223 25.6

Health service research issues ................................................................ 224 25.7

Stenosis after treatment .......................................................................... 225 25.8

Crossovers .............................................................................................. 225 25.9

Data analysis .......................................................................................... 226 25.10

Publication .............................................................................................. 226 25.11

Ethical Committee approval .................................................................... 226 25.12

Data Monitoring Committee ..................................................................... 226 25.13

Steering Committee ................................................................................ 227 25.14

Trial organisation..................................................................................... 227 25.15

26. Appendix V – ICSS-MRI Substudy protocol .................................................... 229

Summary ................................................................................................ 229 26.1

Methods .................................................................................................. 230 26.2

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Background and aim ............................................................................... 230 26.3

Objectives ............................................................................................... 231 26.4

Study design ........................................................................................... 231 26.5

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6. Table of figures

Figure 1. Magnetic resonance angiogram of internal carotid artery stenosis ............ 24

Figure 2. The effect of surgery on the absolute risk reduction in NASCET and

ECST at 3, 5 and 8 years’ follow-up stratified by the degree of carotid stenosis at

baseline for a) any stroke or operative death, b) ipsilateral ischaemic or operative

stroke and operative death and c) disabling or fatal ipsilateral or operative stroke and

operative death ........................................................................................................... 28

Figure 3. 3D reconstruction of CT angioram of head and neck of patient illustrating

a carotid stent in situ in the left internal carotid artery (arrowed) ................................. 31

Figure 4. Three cerebral protection devices used in the International Carotid Stenting

Study – Anioguard (top), NeuroShield (middle) and FilterWire EX (bottom) ................ 33

Figure 5. Surgical technique for eversion carotid endarterectomy ............................ 44

Figure 6. ICSS CONSORT trial diagram .................................................................. 56

Figure 7. Univariable predictors of the risk of stroke, myocardial infarction or death

in 821 patients undergoing CEA in whom the procedure was initiated ........................ 61

Figure 8. Receiver operator curve for application of the Rothwell (1999) risk score

to 821 patients undergoing CEA in ICSS .................................................................... 75

Figure 9. Receiver operator curve for application of the Tu (2003) risk score to 821

patients undergoing CEA in ICSS ............................................................................... 78

Figure 10. Receiver operator curve for application of the Kuhan (2001) risk score to

821 patients undergoing CEA in ICSS ........................................................................ 81

Figure 11. Univariable predictors of the risk of cranial nerve palsy within 30 days of

endarterectomy in 821 ICSS per-protocol participants in whom the procedure was

initiated 90

Figure 12. Univariable predictors of the risk of stroke, myocardial infarction or death

in 828 patients undergoing CAS in whom the procedure was initiated ...................... 122

Figure 13. A scanning electron micrograph of closed-cell stent design before (a) and

after (b) expansion, and an open-cell stent before (c) and after (d) expansion. ......... 128

Figure 14. Determination of smooth (D, E), irregular (C) or ulcerated (A, B)

atheromatous plaque at the carotid bifurcation ......................................................... 135

Figure 15. Measuring the length of maximal stenosis in three vascular anatomical

profiles 136

Figure 16. Measuring the total length of stenosis in three vascular anatomical

profiles 153

Figure 17. Receiver-operator curve for the application of the Gröschel (2008) risk

score in 115 patients undergoing CAS in the ICSS-MRI Substudy ............................ 157

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7. Table of tables

Table 1. Results of follow-up in the early randomized controlled trials of CA(S) vs

CEA 36

Table 2. Results of the recent large randomized controlled trials of CAS vs CEA in

symptomatic patients .................................................................................................. 40

Table 3. Allocation of risk points in the Rothwell risk score ..................................... 70

Table 4. Allocation of risk points in the Tu risk score ............................................... 71

Table 5. Allocation of risk points in the Kuhan risk score ......................................... 72

Table 6. Results of application of the Rothwell (1999) risk score to 821 patients

undergoing CEA in ICSS ............................................................................................ 74

Table 7. Results of application of the Tu (2003) risk score to 821 patients undergoing

CEA in ICSS ............................................................................................................... 77

Table 8. Results of application of the Kuhan (2001) risk score to 821 patients

undergoing CEA in ICSS ............................................................................................ 80

Table 9. Summary of cranial nerve palsies following endarterectomy in ICSS ........ 88

Table 10. Independent predictors of risk of cranial nerve palsy within 30 days of

endarterectomy in 805* ICSS per-protocol participants in whom the procedure was

initiated 94

Table 11. Univariable predictors of risk of haematoma within 30 days of

endarterectomy in 821 ICSS per-protocol participants in whom the procedure was

initiated 96

Table 12. Independent predictors of the risk of haematoma within 30 days of

endarterectomy in 639 ICSS per-protocol participants in whom the procedure was

initiated 108

Table 13. Composite outcome events within 30 days of CEA versus CAS in ICSS

110

Table 14. Results of univariable binomial regression analyses of female vs male in

821 per-protocol CEA patients in whom the allocated procedure was initiated .......... 112

Table 15. Reported immediate cause or timing of event in patients undergoing CAS

in ICSS 120

Table 16. Independent predictors of risk of stroke, MI or death within 30 days of

CAS in 748 ICSS per-protocol participants in whom the procedure was initiated and for

whom complete predictor data are available. Results obtained from multivariable

binomial regression. .................................................................................................. 125

Table 17. Demographic and procedural characteristics of 115 patients allocated to

CAS in the ICSS-MRI Substudy for whom adequate pre-procedure catheter

angiography was available ........................................................................................ 138

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Table 18. Vascular anatomical characteristics of 115 patients allocated to CAS in

the ICSS-MRI Substudy for whom adequate pre-procedure catheter angiography was

available 140

Table 19. Univariable demographic and procedural predictors of new DWI-MRI

lesions following CAS in 115 patients in the ICSS-MRI Substudy for whom adequate

pre-procedure catheter angiography was available ................................................... 142

Table 20. Univariable vascular anatomical predictors of new DWI-MRI lesions

following CAS in 115 patients in the ICSS-MRI Substudy for whom adequate pre-

procedure catheter angiography was available ......................................................... 145

Table 21. Independent predictors of new DWI-MRI lesions following CAS in 115

patients in the ICSS-MRI Substudy for whom adequate pre-procedure catheter

angiography was available ........................................................................................ 147

Table 22. Allocation of risk points in the Gröschel (2008) risk score .................... 154

Table 23. Results of application of the Gröschel (2008) risk score to 115 patients

undergoing CAS in the ICSS-MRI Substudy ............................................................. 156

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8. Abbreviations

ACAS the Asymptomatic Carotid Atherosclerosis Study

ACST(-2) the Asymptomatic Carotid Surgery Trial (2)

ARWMC age-related white matter change score

BACASS the Basel Carotid Artery Stenting Study

(s)(d)BP (systolic) (diastolic) blood pressure

CAS carotid artery stenting / carotid angioplasty and stenting

CAVATAS the Carotid and Vertebral Artery Transluminal Angioplasty Study

CCA common carotid artery

CE symbol / mark declaring manufacturer’s product or device meets the

requirement of applicable European Community directives

CEA carotid endarterectomy

(95%) CI (95%) confidence interval

CONSORT Consolidated Standard of Reporting Trials

CREST the Carotid Revascularization Endarterectomy vs Stenting Trial

CT(A) computed tomography (angiogram)

DICOM Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine

DMC data monitoring committee

DSA digital subtraction angiogram

DWI(-MR) diffusion-weighted imaging (magnetic resonance scan)

ECA external carotid artery

ECG electrocardiogram

ECST(-2) the European Carotid Surgery Trial (2)

EDV end-diastolic velocity (of blood flow)

EU European Union

EVA-3S the Endarterectomy Versus Angioplasty in patients with Symptomatic Severe

Carotid Stenosis trial

FBC full blood count

FLAIR fluid-attenuated inversion recovery

HR hazard ratio

ICA internal carotid artery

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ICH intracranial haemorrhage

ICSS the International Carotid Stenting Study

ICU intensive care unit

ISRCTN International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number

ITT intention-to-treat

MeSH Medical Subject Headings

MI myocardial infarction

mmHg millimetre of mercury

(CE)MR(A) (contrast-enhanced) magnetic resonance (angiogram)

MRC the UK Medical Research Council

MREC Multicentre Research Ethics Committee

mRS modified Rankin Score

N/A not applicable

NASCET the North American Symptomatic Carotid Endarterectomy Trial

OR odds ratio

PP per protocol

PSV peak systolic velocity (of blood flow)

PTA percutaneous transluminal angioplasty

QALY quality-adjusted life year

RR risk ratio

SAPPHIRE the Stenting and Angioplasty with Protection in Patients at High Risk for

Endarterectomy trial

SPACE(-2) the Stent-Protected Angioplasty versus Carotid Endarterectomy trial (2)

TESCAS-C the Treatment of Carotid Atherosclerotic Stenosis in China trial

TIA transient ischaemic attack

UK United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland

US(A) United States (of America)

VA the Veterans’ Administration Symptomatic Trial

WHO the World Health Organization

XA catheter / intra-arterial angiogram

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9. MeSH Keywords

Carotid artery stenosis

Carotid atherosclerosis

Carotid artery ulcerating plaque

Carotid endarterectomy

Stents

Brain ischemia

Stroke

Myocardial infarction

Cranial nerves

Haematoma

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10. List of original publications derived from this work

10.1.1 Chapter 12 (Introduction and literature review)

Doig D, Brown M M. “Carotid stenting versus endarterectomy”. Annu Rev Med

2012;63:259-276 – work adapted for presentation in this thesis with permission from

the Annual Review of Medicine, Volume 63 © 2012 by Annual Reviews,

http://annualreviews.org

Doig D, Brown M M. “Acute stroke care and management of carotid artery stenosis”.

Pathy’s Principles and Practice of Geriatric Medicine. John Wiley & Sons (2012). pp

655-674

Doig D, Brown M M. “Acute stroke care and management of carotid artery stenosis”.

Cardiovascular disease and health in the older patient. John Wiley and Sons (2012), pp

261-298

10.1.2 Chapter 14 (Risk factors for stroke, myocardial infarction or death

following carotid endarterectomy)

“Risk factors for stroke, myocardial infarction, or death following carotid

endarterectomy: results from the International Carotid Stenting Study” accepted for

publication

10.1.3 Chapter 16 (Risk factors for, and impact of, cranial nerve palsy and

haematoma following carotid endarterectomy)

Doig D, Turner EL, Dobson J, Featherstone RL, de Borst GJ, Brown MM, Richards T.

“Incidence, impact and predictors of cranial nerve palsy and haematoma following

carotid endarterectomy in the International Carotid Stenting Study” Eur J Vasc

Endovasc Surg 2014;48:498-504

10.1.4 Chapter 13 (Risk factors for stroke, myocardial infarction or death

following carotid stenting)

“Predictors of stroke, myocardial infarction, or death within 30 days of carotid artery

stenting: results from the International Carotid Stenting Study” accepted for publication

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10.1.5 Chapter 18 (Vascular anatomical factors influencing the risk of new

ischaemic brain lesions on diffusion-weighted MRI following carotid

stenting)

“Carotid anatomy does not predict the risk of new ischaemic brain lesions on diffusion-

weighted imaging after carotid artery stenting in the ICSS-MRI Substudy” accepted for

publication

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11. List of original presentations derived from this work

11.1.1 2013

Featherstone, R. L., Kennedy, F., Doig, D., Dobson, J., & Brown, M. M. “Proportion of

patients treated by carotid endarterectomy or stenting who might have had as good an

outcome with optimised medical treatment: a modelling study using the Carotid Artery

Risk Score”. Cerebrovasc Dis 2013;35:63-63

11.1.2 2012

Doig, D., Featherstone, R. L., Richards, T., Brown, M. M. “Performance of risk

prediction scores for carotid endarterectomy”. Presented at UK Vascular Society AGM,

Manchester, 2012.

Kennedy, F. L., Featherstone, R. L., Doig, D., & Brown, M. M. “Compliance and

durability of blood pressure control for secondary stroke prevention in the International

Carotid Stenting Study”. Cerebrovascular Diseases, 33 (Suppl 2), 1-2. Karger.

doi:10.1159/000339538

Brown, M. M., Dobson, J., Doig, D., Featherstone, R. L., & Turner, E. L.

(2012). “Primary analysis of the International Carotid Stenting Study: a randomised

comparison of the effectiveness of carotid stenting and endarterectomy in preventing

long-term stroke in patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis”. Cerebrovascular

Diseases, 33 (Suppl 2), 1-2. doi:10.1159/000339538

Doig, D. A., Featherstone, R. L., Turner, E. L., Dobson, J., Richards, T., & Brown, M.

M. (2012). “The influence of surgical technique and patient characteristics on the

outcome of carotid endarterectomy (CEA): data from the International Carotid Stenting

Study (ICSS). Cerebrovascular Diseases, 33 (Suppl 2), 1-2. Karger.

doi:10.1159/000339538

Doig, D. A., van der Worp, H. B., Featherstone, R. L., & Brown, M. M. “Timing of

periprocedural major events associated with revascularisation in the International

Carotid Stenting Study (ICSS)”. Cerebrovascular Diseases, 33 (Suppl 2), 1-2. Karger.

doi:10.1159/000339538

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11.1.3 2011

Doig, D. A., Brew, S., Richards, T., Featherstone, R. L., & Brown, M. M. (2011). “Does

intensive peri-procedural management prevent complications of carotid

revascularization?”. International Journal of Stroke, 6 (s2), 1-65. Wiley.

doi:10.1111/j.1747-4949.2011.00684.x

Featherstone, R. L., Doig, D., Altinbas, A., van der Worp, H. B., & Brown, M. M.

(n.d.). “Impact of 30-day outcomes in the International Carotid Stenting Study (ICSS)

on disability at one year”. International Journal of Stroke, 6 (s2), 1-65. Wiley.

doi:10.1111/j.1747-4949.2011.00684.x

Doig, D. A., Dobson, J., Featherstone, R. L., & Brown, M. M. “Short-term predictors of

stroke after carotid stenting and carotid endarterectomy: data from the International

Carotid Stenting Study (ICSS)”. Cerevrovascular Diseases, Karger.

doi:10.1159/000329448

11.1.4 2010

Doig, D. A., Featherstone, R. L., & Brown, M. M. (2010). Cerebral protection devices do

not protect against peri-procedural stroke: data from the International Carotid Stenting

Study. Cerebrovascular Diseases, 29 ((Suppl 2)), 1-341. Karger.

doi:10.1159/000321266

Doig, D., Featherstone, R. L., & Brown, M. M. “Short-term predictors of risk of stenting

for symptomatic carotid stenosis - data from the International Carotid Stenting Study

(ICSS)”. Journal of Neurology, Neurosurgery and Psychiatry, 82 (3), e1. UK: Highwire

Press British Medical Journal Publishing Group. doi:10.1136/jnnp.2010.235572.11

Featherstone, R. L., Doig, D. A., Altinbas, A., van der Worp, H. B., & Brown, M. M. “The

results of the European Carotid Surgery Trial no longer predict outcome of carotid

endarterectomy: a comparison with results of the International Carotid Stenting

Study”. Cerebrovascular Diseases, 29 (Suppl 2), 1-341. Karger.

doi:10.1159/000321266

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12. Introduction and literature review

Stroke and vascular disease 12.1

12.1.1 Background

Stroke is one of the leading causes of death and disability throughout the world [1].

Most commonly-defined as “rapidly-developed clinical signs of focal or global

disturbance of cerebral function, lasting more than 24 hours or until earlier death, with

no apparent non-vascular cause” [2], the term “stroke” therefore describes the

presentation of the patient rather than the underlying pathophysiology, and is distinct

from a Transient Ischaemic Attack (TIA) in which the signs and symptoms of focal

cerebral dysfunction resolve within 24 hours. As brain imaging becomes more

accessible, TIA has more recently been defined as “a transient episode of neurological

dysfunction caused by focal brain, spinal cord, or retinal ischaemia without acute

infarction” [3]. Stroke syndromes affect all age groups, becoming increasingly prevalent

in later life. Data from the United States suggest that nearly 800,000 residents in that

country alone suffered a new or recurrent stroke each year [4]. In the United Kingdom

the equivalent figure is estimated to be 152,000 new patients experiencing a stroke

each year [5].

Early treatment and identification of risk factors for recurrent disease is important –

mortality following a stroke may be as high as 41% after 5 years [6]. However, rapid

assessment and organized treatment in a stroke unit, including a multi-disciplinary

approach to rehabilitation, investigation of the underlying cause, attention to secondary

prevention medications and avoidance of complications can improve outcome [7].

There are many causes of stroke or TIA, and identification of the aetiology in each

patient will be guided by the patient’s demographics, the results of clinical examination,

the pattern of infarction or ischaemia in the brain and the results of investigations such

as ECG, cardiac echo, vascular studies and blood tests.

This thesis focuses on patients with ischaemic stroke. In broad categories, ischaemic

stroke may be caused by embolism (from arterial atheroma, from the heart or

paradoxical embolism from the venous system in patients with atrial septal defect),

thrombosis of an intracranial artery, haemodynamic disturbance (particularly in the

setting of carotid or vertebral artery occlusion), or cerebral venous thrombosis [8].

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12.1.2 Stroke and large-vessel vascular disease

Increasing age is a major risk factor for stroke [9]. A major cause of ischaemic stroke in

the elderly, along with atrial fibrillation, is atherosclerosis affecting the carotid arteries,

the aorta or small penetrating vessels in the brain. The estimate of the proportion of

stroke due to underlying large-vessel disease (largely atheromatous carotid stenosis)

ranges from 13% to 68% in heterogeneous populations [10].

Atheroma is formed wherever there is turbulent blood flow – frequently at sites of

arterial branching such as the carotid arteries, at the origins of the supra-aortic vessels,

in the coronary arteries, the intracranial arteries and the arterial supply to the leg where

there is injury to the vascular endothelium as a result of haemodynamic shear stress

[11]. The response to chronic injury at these sites is infiltration of inflammatory cells

laden with fat (“foam cells”), followed by proliferation of smooth muscle cells. Some

lesions will form a fibrous cap over the top. Reduction in the calibre of the vessel,

stenosis, occurs over time and may give rise to a clinically-audible bruit. Lesions that

are large in volume are more likely to be “unstable” with a high degree of inflammatory

infiltration and a large lipid core [12], leading to rupture of any fibrous cap, exposure of

the circulating blood components to underlying tissue antigens, platelet aggregation

and thrombus formation. Both the thickness of the plaque [13] and irregularity of the

plaque surface [14] have been demonstrated to predict the risk of subsequent stroke in

asymptomatic patients. Progressive occlusion of the artery itself will not usually cause

stroke because of the collateral supply to the brain through the circle of Willis, but if the

circle is incompetent or there is reduction in perfusion due to atherosclerosis of the

other carotid or vertebral arteries then ischaemia may result. However, if thrombus on

the atherosclerotic plaque dislodges following plaque rupture and embolizes distally to

the intracranial arteries then an embolic stroke may result.

Carotid atherosclerosis is relatively common, and can be found in over 2% of European

populations [15]. It is particularly prevalent in patient populations with vascular disease

in the coronary or peripheral arteries, with as many as one in four having co-existent

carotid disease [16] [17]. As expected, therefore, the risk factors for developing carotid

atheroma are similar to those for atheroma in other vessels – older age, smoking, high

blood pressure and high cholesterol [18].

The value of screening patients for carotid disease with a view to primary stroke

prevention is brought into question when the risk of subsequent stroke may be less

than 1% per year in patients using modern secondary prevention medications [19].

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However, amongst patients who have already had TIA or stroke, those with carotid

atherosclerosis are at highest risk of early recurrence [20]. Targeted secondary

prevention therapy, therefore, consists of aspirin [21] and dipyridamole [22] or

clopidogrel monotherapy [23], antihypertensive medication [24], a statin where

appropriate [25] and control of diabetes. Patients are also encouraged to modify their

lifestyle risk factors for stroke by eating healthily, taking part in moderate-intensity

exercise, smoking cessation and reducing alcohol intake [26].

Investigating carotid artery disease 12.2

Carotid stenosis is difficult to detect clinically. Turbulent flow across a stenosis may

produce a bruit clinically-detectable using a stethoscope, although high degrees of

stenosis may reduce flow to a degree that no bruit is audible. Additionally, less-relevant

external carotid artery (ECA) stenosis may also produce a bruit, as may transmitted

sounds from an ejection systolic heart murmur. As such it is an unreliable sign and

further radiological investigations are required to confidently make the diagnosis.

12.2.1 Catheter angiography

Digital subtraction catheter angiography (DSA or “XA”) is often regarded as the “gold

standard” investigation for the diagnosis of carotid atheroma, and was the primary

method of determining the degree of stenosis in most of the early clinical trials of

carotid surgery versus medical therapy for symptomatic carotid stenosis. A catheter is

advanced from a peripheral artery, usually the femoral, around the aortic arch. The

common carotid is then cannulated and the carotid arteries imaged by means of

radiopaque dye. A “mask” image obtained before the administration of intra-arterial

contrast is then digitally subtracted from the contrast image to remove other radio-

opaque structures such as bone from the final image. However, this invasive technique

carries with it a risk of stroke or TIA of up to 4% in those with even lower-risk

asymptomatic plaques [27] due to dislodgement of either atheroma in the vascular tree

or thrombus on a complicated plaque. Figure 1 illustrates a stenosis of the left internal

carotid artery just above the level of the carotid bifurcation (arrowed) as viewed on

magnetic resonance angiography.

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Figure 1. Magnetic resonance angiogram of internal carotid artery stenosis

An atheromatous plaque causing stenosis of the internal carotid artery just above the

level of the carotid bifurcation is arrowed

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12.2.2 Ultrasound

Because of their proximity to the surface of the neck, it is usually possible to examine

the internal and external carotid arteries as they branch from the common carotid artery

using ultrasound. Ultrasound may be used to visualize the internal carotid artery (ICA)

itself, and although features such as plaque thickness can be measured, the degree of

stenosis is usually is most closely correlated to the velocity of blood flowing through the

artery. As the systolic blood pulse flows through a stenosis there is a corresponding

increase in the velocity of the blood which is measured using Doppler-mode

ultrasound. The degree of stenosis is derived from measurement of the peak systolic

velocity (PSV) and end-diastolic velocity (EDV) of blood flow in the common carotid

and internal carotid arteries and the ratio between the two measurements, although

technical limitations to determining the degree of stenosis include acoustic shadowing

from calcification in the plaque and difficulties interpreting velocity measurements in

tortuous vessels or arteries without normal runoff [28].

12.2.3 CT and MR angiography

Computed tomography (CT) angiography is a less-invasive alternative to DSA. Risks

associated with CT angiography include contrast nephropathy and allergic reaction to

contrast media, and the ability to visualize the degree of stenosis may be limited in

lesions with heavy calcification that can cause artefact on the scan image.

Magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) has a number of advantages over CT,

including the avoidance of ionising radiation. However, patients do not tolerate the

investigation as well, mostly because of the confined nature of the scanning tunnel.

Contrast-enhanced MR has been reported to be more accurate investigation than CTA

or DUS for the detection of high-grade (70-99%) stenosis than other non-invasive

methods (>90% sensitivity and specificity) [29], although it is not clear whether

combinations of non-invasive tests are as reliable for detecting carotid stenosis

compared with catheter angiography as the results of different investigations do not

always agree on the degree of stenosis. As MR angiography without contrast (“time of

flight” sequences) can lead to over-estimation of the degree of stenosis [30] contrast-

enhanced MRA is usually preferred. Because of the risk of complications associated

with catheter angiography, non-invasive tests, sometimes in combination, are currently

preferred for the initial investigation of carotid stenosis, with catheter angiogram being

reserved for those cases where doubt over the diagnosis or degree of stenosis

remains.

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Carotid endarterectomy 12.3

That carotid artery stenosis could be a cause of focal neurological symptoms has long

been recognized. Early forms of surgical intervention were focussed on attempts to

improve blood flow through techniques such as cervical sympathectomy, based on the

assumption that a lack of blood supply to the ipsilateral cerebral hemisphere produced

symptoms (“brain claudication”) similar to critical reduction of blood flow in the coronary

arteries causing symptoms of angina through myocardial ischaemia. The first published

descriptions of carotid endarterectomy – surgical removal of the atheromatous lesion –

were from the surgeons DeBakey in the United States and Eastcott in the United

Kingdom. In 1975 DeBakey reported having operating on a patient in 1953 with

recurrent left hemisphere ischaemic symptoms due to carotid atheroma with good

results [31]. Eastcott in 1954 reported endarterectomy and repair of the carotid artery

on a 66-year-old housewife with similar ischaemic symptoms [32].

Endarterectomy for carotid stenosis was widely adopted before large-scale clinical

trials could provide definitive evidence for its efficacy in the prevention of recurrent

stroke, and by the early 1980s had become the third-most performed operation in the

United States [33]. Surgery for carotid stenosis carries a risk of complications, including

death, stroke, myocardial infarction, wound haematoma, cranial nerve palsy and

pulmonary problems [34], and so to justify performing the procedure these short-term

risks must be outweighed by the long-term benefit of the operation in terms of stroke

prevention.

12.3.1 Trials of carotid endarterectomy versus medical therapy – symptomatic

patients

In the 1980s and 1990s two large clinical trials were performed which provide the

foundation for evidence-based intervention in recently-symptomatic patients since – the

North American Symptomatic Carotid Endarterectomy Trial (NASCET) [35] and the

European Carotid Surgery Trial (ECST) [36].

NASCET grouped patients into those with “low moderate” (<50%), “high moderate” (50-

69%) and “severe” (70-99%) carotid stenosis. Patients were randomized to either CEA

or medical treatment. Interim analysis of 659 patients with 70-99% stenosis revealed a

statistically significant reduction in the risk of any stroke or death over 2 years in the

surgery group (15.8%) as compared to the medical group (32.3%) [37]. The

subsequent observation that the benefit of surgery in terms of stroke prevention was

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reduced in groups with lower degrees of stenosis (and, indeed, absent in those with

<50% stenosis) led the authors to conclude that “the degree of benefit individual

patients received from carotid endarterectomy was directly proportional to the risk they

faced without surgery” [35], with lesser degrees of stenosis conferring lower risk of

recurrent stroke.

ECST, a trial that enrolled 3204 patients, reached a similar conclusion, but used a

different method of measuring stenosis [36]. This trial showed a significant reduction in

the risk of stroke or surgical death over 5 years in those undergoing CEA vs those on

medical therapy of 21.2% (95% CI 12.9% to 29.4%) in patients with 70-99% stenosis

and 5.7% (95% CI 0% to 11.6%) in those with 50-69% stenosis [38]. Like NASCET,

there was no evidence of a benefit of surgery in patients with less than 50% carotid

stenosis.

Meta-analysis of the results of NASCET, ECST and the smaller 189-patient trial from

the Veterans Affairs Cooperative Studies Program 309 Trialist Group [39], using only

the NASCET method of measuring stenosis [40], clarifies the extent of this risk

reduction in patients with varying degrees of stenosis. Overall, the absolute risk of

ipsilateral stroke was 16.0% lower (p<0.01) in those with more than 70% stenosis

undergoing CEA as compared with those in the medical treatment group, and 4.6%

lower (p=0.04) in patients with 50-69% stenosis undergoing surgery [38]. Patients with

less than 50% stenosis did not benefit. A specific subgroup of patients with greater

than 99% stenosis and vessel collapse due to poor runoff distal to the stenosis also did

not benefit from surgery, perhaps because these lesions progressed to complete

occlusion [41]. The relationship between the reduction in the main outcomes of these

trials with CEA and the degree of stenosis is illustrated in Figure 2.

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Figure 2. The effect of surgery on the absolute risk reduction in NASCET and

ECST at 3, 5 and 8 years’ follow-up stratified by the degree of carotid stenosis

at baseline for a) any stroke or operative death, b) ipsilateral ischaemic or

operative stroke and operative death and c) disabling or fatal ipsilateral or

operative stroke and operative death

Adapted from [38] and reproduced from [42] with kind permission of Elsevier and of the

Annual Review of Medicine, Volume 63 © 2012 by Annual Reviews

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There is evidence that some subgroups of patients in whom surgery is recommended

will benefit more than others. The risk/benefit ratio most favours surgery over medical

treatment in men and the elderly. In addition, the overall benefit of surgery diminishes

as the time between symptoms and surgery increases, strongly favouring intervention

within 2 weeks of symptoms in stable patients [43].

The results of these trials, taken together, demonstrated a strong link between

increasing degrees of carotid stenosis and increasing risk of recurrent stroke or TIA on

medical treatment alone. This was matched by a corresponding decrease in risk for

patients with high degrees of stenosis who undergo CEA. The most recent guidelines

from the American Heart Association [44], the Society for Vascular Surgery [45] and

the European Society for Vascular Surgery [46] continue to recommend carotid

endarterectomy for the long-term prevention of stroke in patients with recently-

symptomatic carotid artery stenosis >50% and in selected asymptomatic patients with

60-99% stenosis. However, stroke, myocardial infarction and death are not the only

risks associated with CEA, and both cranial nerve palsy [47] [48] [49] [50] and neck

haematoma [51] [52] are well-recognized “minor” complications which may have a

major impact on the patient but have been less-extensively studied in clinical trials.

These extra hazards of a neck incision have led to the consideration of carotid stenting

as a less-invasive alternative to CEA, and as an alternative in patients with difficult

surgical access owing to previous neck surgery or carotid stenosis secondary to

radiotherapy [53].

12.3.2 Trials of carotid endarterectomy versus medical therapy – asymptomatic

patients

The rate of ipsilateral stroke in patients with asymptomatic carotid disease is much

lower than that of patients with symptomatic stenosis – possibly as low as 0.34% per

year when optimal medical therapy is prescribed [19]. Two large randomized trials

provide much of the data addressing the question of whether prophylactic CEA in

asymptomatic patients prevents long-term stroke.

The North American Asymptomatic Carotid Atherosclerosis Study (ACAS) randomized

1662 patients with ≥60% stenosis to either daily aspirin treatment or daily aspirin plus

carotid endarterectomy. In addition, patients in both groups received “medical risk

factor management” targeting vascular risk factors. The primary comparison was

between the rate of ipsilateral stroke or any perioperative stroke or death. CEA reduced

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the risk of this outcome from 11.0% to 5.1% (relative risk reduction 53%, 95% CI 22%

to 72%) [54].

The Asymptomatic Carotid Surgery Trial (ACST) randomized 3120 patients with 60-

99% carotid stenosis to either “immediate” endarterectomy or deferral of CEA until a

clinician considered there to be a clear indication for proceeding with surgery. Half of

the patients in the “immediate” CEA group were operated on within one month of

randomization. The combined risk of perioperative and subsequent stroke over a five-

year period was 11.8% in the deferred group and 6.4% in the immediate surgery group

(p<0.01) [55]. Long-term results have since confirmed an extended benefit of CEA

stroke prevention for patients under the age of 75 years [56] up to 10 years after

surgery.

Carotid angioplasty and stenting 12.4

Carotid angioplasty and stenting evolved as a less-invasive alternative to CEA in part

to avoid the hazards of a surgical incision. One of the first descriptions of the use of

endovascular intervention for atheroma in a peripheral artery by balloon angioplasty

was by Dotter in 1964, who recanalized the femoral artery of an elderly patient with

peripheral vascular disease who had critically-reduced perfusion to the foot. The

procedure was a clinical and radiological success [57]. (He would later develop the

technique further by introducing the first stents (“coilspring grafts”) into the femoral or

popliteal arteries of dogs, demonstrating that the stents remained patent after insertion

[58]).

The first descriptions of using this technique to treat atheromatous disease of the

carotid artery in humans emerged in the 1980s, although only small numbers of

patients were included in published case series. Early results were promising, although

the problem of transient neurological and cardiac symptoms due to balloon inflation

and the hazards of carotid artery dissection were recognized [59] [60]. A significant

restenosis rate was also reported [61], although early restenosis after angioplasty often

represents smooth muscle growth rather than enlargement of the atheromatous plaque

and therefore was thought to confer a lower risk of subsequent ischaemic stroke.

However, much like endarterectomy, CAS was widely adopted before good-quality

evidence from large randomized trials was available to support its routine use. By 2003

an estimated 10,000 patients worldwide had been recorded as having undergone CAS

with a reported rate of recanalization over 99% [62]. Figure 3, below, shows a 3D

reconstruction of a carotid stent in situ in the internal carotid artery (arrowed).

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Figure 3. 3D reconstruction of CT angioram of head and neck of patient

illustrating a carotid stent in situ in the left internal carotid artery (arrowed)

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One of the major developments in CAS followed the observation that particulate debris

generated during the procedure itself was a cause of periprocedural stroke. “Cerebral

protection devices” (CPDs) were developed to catch this debris before entering the

cerebral circulation, and employed either a mesh-type filter to trap particles or used

proximal and/or distal balloons to obstruct flow. There is some conflicting evidence as

to the efficacy of CPDs in preventing procedural cerebral ischaemia, and while one

clinical trial found poor results in patients who did not receive a CPD [63], the

International Carotid Stenting Study demonstrated a significantly higher rate of new

ischaemic brain lesions after CAS versus CEA in patients recruited in centres with a

policy of routine CPD use (OR 12.20, 95% CI 4.53 to 32.84) compared with CAS

versus CEA in centres using unprotected stenting (OR 2.70, 95% CI 1.12 to 6.24,

interaction p=0.02) [64]. Flow reversal systems, first described by Parodi [65], are a

newer alternative to filter-type CPDs that use a system of inflatable balloons to create

reversal of flow in the ICA into an arteriovenous shunt created by the operator. This

technique has been less extensively studied, but is currently undergoing evaluation

[66]. Figure 4, below, illustrates three cerebral protection devices used in ICSS.

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Figure 4. Three cerebral protection devices used in the International Carotid

Stenting Study – Anioguard (top), NeuroShield (middle) and FilterWire EX

(bottom)

From [67] with kind permission from Lippincott Williams & Wilkins / Wolters Kluwer

Health

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Stenting carries hazards because of the endovascular nature of the procedure.

Atheromatous lesions around the level of the carotid bifurcation are likely to contain

friable material [68] which can be dislodged by catheterization or the passage of

endovascular devices across the lesion causing TIA or stroke. Although avoiding an

incision in the neck, there is still a risk of groin haematoma of around 2-3% which may

necessitate repair of the femoral artery used for vascular access [69]. Patients who

may have renal impairment should have their renal function checked prior to

angiography and/or stenting as the procedure involves the administration of iodinated

intravascular contrast.

12.4.1 Trials of CAS vs CEA – symptomatic stenosis

Early randomized trials comparing CAS and CEA yielded mixed results and generated

some concern about the safety of CAS. In Leicester in the UK, Naylor and colleagues

randomized 23 patients (of whom 17 received treatment) to CEA or angioplasty before

the study was stopped owing to a periprocedural stroke risk of 71% (5/7 patients) in the

stenting arm [70]. In contrast to this risk, Brooks and colleagues in Lexington,

Kentucky, recorded only one death out of 51 patients randomized to CEA and one TIA

in 53 patients randomized to CAS in their trial [71]. They noted the shorter length of

hospital stay in CAS patients and concluded that CAS “challenged” CEA as the

preferred treatment for patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis. The BACASS trial in

Basel, Switzerland, reported similar results – none of the 10 patients randomized to

CAS in this study suffered stroke, myocardial infarction or death before the trial was

stopped when the centre decided to participate in the International Carotid Stenting

Study [72]. The results of the WALLSTENT study [73] have only been published in

abstract form, but it is known that after enrolling 219 patients the risk of any stroke or

death within 30 days in the CAS arm was 12.1% vs 4.5% for CEA (p=0.05). The study

was stopped on the grounds of futility.

Two larger multicentre trials more firmly established the basis for offering angioplasty

as an alternative to CEA – the Stenting and Angioplasty with Protection in Patients at

High Risk for Endarterectomy (SAPPHIRE) trial [74] and the Carotid and Vertebral

Artery Transluminal Angioplasty Study (CAVATAS) [75].

CAVATAS included patients with anterior circulation symptoms due to carotid stenosis

as well as those with posterior circulation symptoms due to vertebral stenosis. Patients

were randomized to either angioplasty or endarterectomy. The 30-day rate of stroke

with symptoms persisting more than 7 days or death was almost identical between the

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two groups [75], but during extended follow-up there was a non-significant increase in

the 8-year incidence of ipsilateral non-perioperative stroke risk to 11.3% in the

endovascular group versus 8.6% in the CEA group [76]. This study of 504 patients was

therefore considered underpowered to detect a difference in treatment effect, and

interpretation of the result was complicated by the introduction of stenting as a routine

addition to angioplasty during the course of the trial.

SAPPHIRE enrolled symptomatic patients considered at “high risk” for CEA – those

with cardiac or respiratory disease, contralateral carotid occlusion, recurrent stenosis,

previous neck surgery or radiotherapy, age over 80 years or contralateral recurrent

laryngeal nerve palsy – who had stenosis of at least 50%. Asymptomatic patients fitting

the above criteria were enrolled if they presented with carotid stenosis greater than

80%. Patients were randomized between CAS and CEA, and CAS patients were

treated using a CPD. At one year, the specified endpoint of death, stroke or MI was

reached by 12.2% of CAS and 20.1% of CEA patients, but confidence intervals for this

difference included equality of the two treatments [74]. At three years follow-up there

was also no difference in the risk of the combined endpoint.

The results of the long-term follow-up in these and one other early trial of CAS vs CEA

is presented in Table 1 below.

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Table 1. Results of follow-up in the early randomized controlled trials of CA(S) vs CEA

Trial Region N Inclusion

Criteria

Comparison Primary Outcome Follow-up Risk of Primary Outcome

Naylor et al.

[70]

UK 23 >70%

symptomatic

ICA stenosis

Angioplasty

vs

CEA

Death or disabling or non-disabling

stroke

30 days 71% vs 0% (p<0.01)

Brooks et al.

[71]

USA 104 >70%

symptomatic

ICA stenosis

CAS

vs

CEA

Death or cerebral ischemia 2 years 1.9% vs 2.0%

Alberts et al.

(WALLSTENT)

[73]

USA 219 60 – 99%

symptomatic

ICA stenosis

CAS

vs

CEA

Ipsilateral stroke, procedure-related

death, or vascular death within 1 year

1 year 12.1% vs 3.6% (p=0.02)

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Table 1 continued

Trial Region N Inclusion Criteria Comparison Primary Outcome Follow-up Risk of Primary Outcome

Hoffman et al.

(BACASS) [72]

Switzerland 20 ≥70% symptomatic

ICA stenosis

CAS

vs

CEA

Periprocedural stroke, death or MI 4 years 0.0% vs 10.0%

Ederle et al.

(CAVATAS) [75]

International 504 Carotid stenosis

requiring treatment

(90%

symptomatic)

Angioplasty ±

stenting

vs

CEA

Ipsilateral non-perioperative stroke 8 years 11.3% vs 8.6% (HR 1.22,

95% CI 0.59-2.54) by

intention to treat

Yadav et al.

(SAPPHIRE)

[74]

North

America

334 ≥50% symptomatic

stenosis / ≥80%

asymptomatic ICA

stenosis

CAS

vs

CEA

Death, stroke or MI within 30 days

or death or ipsilateral stroke

between 31 and 1080 days

3 years 24.6% vs 26.9% (absolute

difference -2.3%, 95% CI –

11.8% to 7.0%) by

intention to treat

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Four large randomized controlled open trials of CAS versus CEA that enrolled

symptomatic patients have been carried out more recently, and all have formally

reported results.

The Stent-Protected Angioplasty versus Carotid Endarterectomy (SPACE) trial was

carried out in Central Europe. Of non-inferiority design, it enrolled 1200 patients with

symptomatic “severe” stenosis (≥50% by NASCET method [40]) before analysis

determined that it has failed to conclusively demonstrate non-inferiority. The trial was

thus stopped early when its initial funding source expired and it was thought unlikely to

reach a conclusive sample size. Analysis of 1183 patients showed a 30-day risk of

death or ipsilateral stroke of 6.84% of the CAS group and 6.34% of the CEA group

(absolute risk difference 0.51%, 90% CI -1.89% to 2.91%) [77]. At 2-year follow-up

there was a similar rate of recurrent ipsilateral stroke in both groups, although it was

noted that recurrent carotid stenosis was more common in the CAS group [78].

The French Endarterectomy versus Angioplasty in Patients with Symptomatic Severe

Carotid Stenosis (EVA-3S) trial was also of non-inferiority design. After randomization

of 527 patients recruitment was stopped on the advice of the safety committee – the

primary combined endpoint of periprocedural stroke or death occurred in 9.6% of the

CAS group (95% CI 6.4% to 14.0%) compared with 3.9% of the CEA group (95% CI

2.0% to 7.2%) [79]. Follow-up was continued out to four years, and showed that the

subsequent long-term risk of recurrent ipsilateral stroke, excluding procedural risk, was

low and “similar in both treatment groups” [80].

The International Carotid Stenting Study (ICSS) was funded mainly by the UK Medical

Research Council, the Stroke Association and the European Union, and it recruited

internationally. It randomized 1713 patients with greater-than 50% carotid stenosis

using the NASCET method of measurement or non-invasive equivalent [81]. The trial

protocol is described in brief in Chapter 13 and presented in full in Appendix IV. In an

intention-to-treat analysis of results up to 120 days after randomization the risk of

stroke, myocardial infarction or death in the CAS group was 8.5% versus 5.2% in the

endarterectomy group (HR 1.92, 95% CI 1.27 to 2.89) [82]. Recruitment finished in

2008 and the results of long-term follow-up have been presented. The long-term risk of

fatal or disabling stroke was no different between the two groups during a median

follow-up duration of 4.2 years (HR 1.08, 95% CI 0.73 to 1.60, p=0.69), but the risk of

any stroke was greater in the CAS group (HR 1.73, 95% CI 1.29 to 2.32, p<0.01)

reflecting an excess of minor perioperative stroke in patients undergoing CAS [83].

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Finally, the North American Carotid Revascularization: Endarterectomy versus Stent

Trial (CREST) began recruiting symptomatic patients, but later amended its protocol to

allow randomization of asymptomatic patients. CREST enrolled 2502 patients in total.

Symptomatic patients were required to have ≥50% stenosis on angiography, ≥70%

stenosis on Doppler ultrasound or ≥70% stenosis on MRA or CTA if ultrasound

indicated 50-69% stenosis. Asymptomatic patients were required to have ≥60%

stenosis on angiography, ≥70% on ultrasound, or ≥80% on MRA or CTA if ultrasound

indicated 50-69% stenosis. CREST also differed from the European trials in mandating

the use of a single manufacturer’s devices for CAS – the Acculink stent and the

Accunet CPD. No significant difference was found between CAS and CEA for the

primary outcome measure of any periprocedural stroke, MI or death or postprocedural

ipsilateral stroke at four years follow-up (7.2% vs 6.8%, HR 1.11, 95% CI 0.81 to 1.51),

but there was a higher risk of periprocedural stroke in the CAS group (4.1% vs 2.3%,

p=0.01) in keeping with the results of EVA-3S, SPACE and ICSS [84]. This analysis

included both asymptomatic and symptomatic patients.

The short-term results of symptomatic patients only from these trials are summarized in

Table 2.

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Table 2. Results of the recent large randomized controlled trials of CAS vs CEA in symptomatic patients

Trial Region Sample

Size (n)

Comparison Outcome Risk of outcome at 30 days post-procedure

EVA-3S

[79]

France 527 CAS + CPD vs

CEA

Any periprocedural stroke or

death

9.6% vs 3.9% (p=0.01) by intention to treat

SPACE

[77]

Germany,

Austria,

Switzerland

1183 CAS +/- CPD vs

CEA

Any periprocedural ipsilateral

ischemic stroke or death

6.8% vs 6.3% (p=0.09 for non-inferiority) by

intention to treat

ICSS

[82]

International 1713 CAS +/- CPD

vs

CEA

Any periprocedural stroke, MI or

death

7.4% vs 4.0% (p<0.01) per protocol

CREST

(symptomatic

patients only)

[85]

USA,

Canada

1321 CAS + CPD vs

CEA

Any periprocedural stroke, MI or

death

6.7% vs 5.4% (p=0.30) by intention to treat

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12.4.2 Trials of CAS vs CEA – asymptomatic stenosis

The safety and efficacy of CAS against CEA has also been tested in asymptomatic

patients. Three large trials have reported results. The largest cohort of asymptomatic

patients is found in the CREST study, which enrolled 1181 patients with carotid

stenosis >50% but without symptoms. The combined risk of stroke, myocardial

infarction (MI) or periprocedural death within 30 days of the procedure in these

asymptomatic patients was 2.5% in the CAS group and 1.4% in the CEA group (HR

1.88, 95% CI 0.79 to 4.42, p=0.15) [85] suggesting that stenting was more risky than

endarterectomy although the difference was not statistically significant. The results of

long-term follow-up are awaited. In the older Stenting and Angioplasty with Protection

in Patients at High Risk for Endarterectomy (SAPPHIRE) study, 7 out of 117

asymptomatic patients in the CAS group and 5 out of 120 asymptomatic patients in the

CEA group suffered stroke or periprocedural death [86]. Brooks et al. also enrolled 85

asymptomatic patients with carotid stenosis >80% in their trial of CAS vs CEA, but

none suffered stroke or death following the procedure [71].

Another study conducted in China, the Trial of Endarterectomy versus Stenting for the

treatment of Carotid Atherosclerotic Stenosis (TESCAS-C) [87], enrolled a mixture of

symptomatic and asymptomatic patients, but to date has not reported these results

separately. And one further trial, the North American Asymptomatic Carotid Trial (ACT-

1), was designed to compare CAS with CEA by randomizing patients in a 3:1 ratio to

these treatments. Its protocol specified exclusive use of the Xact carotid stent and

Emboshield protection device in the CAS arm, but has now stopped recruitment as a

result of a decision by the sponsor to discontinue funding [88].

Meta-analysis of these trials suggests a trend towards worse outcome with CAS in

asymptomatic patients in the short-term with a higher risk of periprocedural death or

stroke, and in the long-term with a higher risk of periprocedural death or stroke or

ipsilateral stroke thereafter. However, the total number of patients enrolled in

asymptomatic trials is low, and this excess risk does not reach statistical significance

[86].

12.4.3 Cost considerations

Limited research exists on the potential health economic benefits of carotid stenting

versus endarterectomy. In theory, stenting may offer a reduced hospital stay,

avoidance of a general anaesthetic and, at least in younger patients, a similar

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complication rate to that of CEA while avoiding cranial nerve palsy or haematoma from

a neck incision.

The data on the cost of the procedure itself is mixed – some studies find CAS to be

more expensive [89], while other analyses attribute a higher cost to CEA [90]. Of

interest, data from the USA showed that the net revenue for hospitals was 29% higher

when patients were treated with CEA rather than CAS [91]. In order to be as cost-

effective as surgery, CAS operators and device manufacturers will need to consistently

demonstrate a similar complication rate to that of CEA in low-risk patients, reduce the

cost of the procedure, or perhaps restrict the procedure to patients at higher surgical

risk [92]. A cost-effectiveness analysis in the International Carotid Stenting Study is

ongoing.

From trial data to individual patients: predicting procedural risk 12.5

Complications following any surgical procedure remain common, and occur in up to 7%

of all patients even when specific interventions are applied to reduce their risk [93].

Examples of postoperative problems include cardiac arrest, myocardial infarction,

pulmonary embolism, bleeding, pneumonia, wound problems including infection, sepsis

and death. Data suggest that up to half of these events are potentially avoidable [94]

[95]. Complication rates in carotid artery surgery and stenting remain significant [96]

[97], and excluding those patients who would suffer stroke, myocardial infarction or

other serious complications would prevent much perioperative morbidity and mortality.

Studies identifying subgroups of patients at risk of complications following CEA and

CAS are reviewed in detail in Chapters 14, 15 and 17. However, an overview of

important risk factors that appear to have a strong influence on outcome and that have

been reported in multiple studies or meta-analysis is presented here.

12.5.1 Predicting the risk of CEA

Patient factors

Risk modelling drawing on patient data from ECST suggests that there are specific

subgroups of patients at increased risk of stroke or death following CEA. These include

female patients, those with peripheral vascular disease, and those with a high systolic

blood pressure before surgery [98].

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Some anatomical factors – previous surgery, radiotherapy, restenosis of a vessel, a

high stenosis or inflexible neck – are thought to confer high risk for carotid

endarterectomy because of limited surgical access to the carotid plaque or a

technically difficult procedure, but there is some evidence from small case series to

suggest that patients with some of these factors may not actually suffer more

complications [99] [100]. In addition, the patient with heart or lung disease is often

thought to be at increased risk from surgery [101], but again this is not always borne

out in case series [100] [102].

Technical variables

CEA can be performed under local or general anaesthesia with seemingly little

difference in outcome [103] [104], but with the advantage of clinical monitoring of the

patient for signs of focal neurological dysfunction during the procedure if local

anaesthetic is used. Contralateral ICA stenosis appears to increase the perioperative

risk of stroke [105], and the use of shunts during surgery to bypass arterial clamping on

the ipsilateral side and maintain distal flow to the brain has become widespread despite

limited evidence of efficacy [106]. After resection of the atherosclerotic plaque the

vessel may be repaired by primary closure, by patch or by vein graft. The safety of

differing surgical techniques appears similar, although there is some evidence that

patch closure may reduce late restenosis [107]. Figure 5 illustrates the process of

exposing the atheromatous plaque in eversion carotid endarterectomy – one surgical

technique for performing arteriotomy and removal of the plaque.

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Figure 5. Surgical technique for eversion carotid endarterectomy

a. Haemostatic control is achieved by clamps on common, internal and external

carotid arteries

b. Arteriotomy is made, extending toward the fork of the carotid bifurcation

c. Complete transection of the internal carotid artery is followed by resection of the

plaque then surgical repair of the artery

From [108] with kind permission from Springer Science and Business Media

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Centre and operator experience

Technical errors made during surgery may contribute to perioperative stroke [109].

Several studies address the influence of operator experience or volume in carotid

endarterectomy. Surgeons performing a high volume of operations appear to have

lower mortality and postoperative stroke rates [110] [111] [112]. There is also a

relationship between the annual hospital volume of endarterectomies and adverse

neurological outcome [113], and UK professional bodies are moving to support

centralization of vascular surgical services in high-volume centres [114].

12.5.2 Predicting the risk of CAS

Patient factors

There appears to be a strong and consistent effect of the patient’s age on the outcome

of stenting, with a doubling of the risk of any stroke or death up to 120 days after CAS

compared with CEA in patients over the age of 70 years (RR 2.04, 95% CI 1.48 to

2.82) in meta-analysis of the results of the European trials of CAS versus CEA [115].

CREST separately reported a strikingly similar finding – the efficacy of CAS and CEA

was approximately equal at age 70, but the risk of CAS rose with increasing age while

there was no corresponding increase in risk in the CEA group [84] [116]. There is also

recent evidence that the patient with a higher burden of white matter brain disease at

baseline has an increased risk of stroke following CAS [117], independent of the

patient’s age.

CREST reported a worse outcome after CAS in women – the 30-day risk of stroke, MI

or death was 6.8% in women randomized to CAS versus 3.8% in women randomized

to CEA (HR 1.84, 95% CI 1.01 to 3.37), whereas there was no significant difference

between CAS and CEA complications in men. However, there was no difference in

long-term outcome in CREST between the sexes and the Carotid Stenting Trialists’

Collaboration did not report a difference in short-term outcomes between men and

women in the European trials of CAS versus CEA [118] [84].

Technical variables

A variety of endovascular devices from different manufacturers are available to

interventionists. While some clinical trials such as the International Carotid Stenting

Study approved a wide range of devices [81], others including CREST mandated

specific devices [84]. Thus evidence comparing devices to each other is sparse.

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However, by grouping devices by their characteristics some distinction can be made

between the performance of closed-cell and open-cell stents. Closed-cell stents offer

enhanced coverage of the atheromatous lesion with a smaller area between metallic

struts, and there is a suggestion that they offer better protection against stroke and TIA

by containing debris at the site of the lesion [119].

Anatomical features

Several vascular anatomical features are thought to confer increased risk of stroke

following CAS. Among those that have been shown to be associated with an increased

risk are ICA angulation ≥60o [120] [121], lesion length >15mm, type III or “bovine” aortic

arch [122], aortic calcification [122], a calcified or ulcerated lesion [122] or an ostial

lesion [122] [121]. In addition to these features, an angulated distal ICA and “pinhole”

tight stenosis are described as technically challenging [123]. If some vascular

anatomical variants are indeed more difficult to navigate and stent than others, it

follows that more experienced operators could be able to avoid dislodging thrombus or

fragmenting atheroma and therefore avoid perioperative stroke.

Centre and operator experience

While there appears to be remarkable consistency across the results of these

randomized trials, the design of the European trials (ICSS, EVA-3S and SPACE) in

particular have been criticized. As CAS is the newer procedure, the number of

interventionists able to demonstrate substantial volumes of stenting procedures is

smaller, and this was reflected in the criteria for centre enrolment in ICSS, for example.

Surgeons performing endarterectomy in ICSS were required to have performed a

minimum of 50 prior CEA procedures with a minimum volume of 10 cases per year and

demonstrate acceptable patient outcome data. In contrast, interventionists could

perform CAS procedures in the trial having placed only 10 carotid stents (albeit with a

minimum of 50 stenting procedures in total including those in other vascular territories).

Assessing the risk of complications with any individual operator is difficult, and larger

numbers of patients are required to report a risk with narrow confidence intervals [124].

This has led to the suggestion that inexperience in these trials is responsible for the

higher rate of stroke in CAS patients, and that perhaps “CAS performed by

inexperienced interventionists has higher peri-procedural complication rates than CEA

done by experienced surgeons” [125] is the most valid conclusion to be drawn from the

data from these trials. Recent pooled analysis of the 1546 patients undergoing CAS in

the three European trials suggests that the patients of interventionists who performed a

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low number of procedures each year within the trials were at double the risk of stroke

or death within 30 days of CAS compared with the patients of interventionists who

performed more than 5 stenting procedures within the trial each year (RR 2.30, 95% CI

1.36 to 3.87) [126].

The current status of CAS & CEA for symptomatic patients 12.6

Carotid revascularization is recommended in UK, US and European guidelines for

patients with symptomatic stenosis ≥50% where the operative morbidity is estimated to

be low. 2014 AHA guidelines note the reduced benefit of CEA in patients with 50-69%

stenosis, and suggest that the intervention in these patients should be “performed by a

surgeon with excellent operative skills” [127]. In these guidelines, CAS is deemed to be

indicated as an alternative to CEA in patients at average or low risk of complications,

taking age into account, or in those with contraindications to CEA. In the UK the

National Institute for Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidelines from 2008 do not specify a

recommendation for the use of CAS other than in cases of symptomatic carotid

stenosis ≥50% where endarterectomy might be high risk or contraindicated [128] [129].

Similarly, the European Vascular Society guidelines continue to recommend CEA over

CAS for the majority of symptomatic patients [46] [130].

Are these guidelines reflected in clinical practice? Data from hospitals in England

reveals that the overwhelming majority of revascularization procedures carried out on

the carotid artery are endarterectomies, with only 5% of patients receiving stenting

[131]. The results of the major randomized trials that overall favour CEA as the safer

procedure – SPACE, EVA-3S, ICSS and CREST – appear not to have affected the

number of CAS procedures being carried out between 2006 and 2012, but interestingly

the patients undergoing CAS were younger in age, perhaps reflecting the

recommendation that CAS be considered more carefully in older patients because of

the higher risk of peri-procedural complications. In the United States, there has been a

significant increase in the number of CAS procedures performed since the publication

of the main results of these trials predominantly, again, in younger patients and those

who were asymptomatic [132]. The debate as to which procedure is superior seems far

from settled in clinicians’ minds.

This thesis 12.7

This thesis will examine the risk of, and impact of, complications arising from carotid

revascularization in symptomatic patients in the International Carotid Stenting Study –

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stroke, myocardial infarction, death, cranial nerve palsy and neck haematoma. It will

determine whether there are subgroups of patients at particular risk of these

complications following CEA or CAS based on their demographic characteristics, the

type of procedure they have undergone or their individual vascular anatomy. Finally it

will examine the performance of existing risk-scoring systems for predicting

complications of CEA and CAS when applied to the patients in ICSS who were

randomized to those procedures. The thesis concludes with a summary and discussion

of its main findings, and places the work in the context of recent and ongoing studies of

CEA and CAS.

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13. Methods – ICSS and the ICSS-MRI Substudy

The International Carotid Stenting Study 13.1

13.1.1 Introduction

The full protocol for ICSS is presented in Appendix IV, and is published elsewhere [81].

The ICSS-MRI Substudy protocol is presented in full in Appendix V. The International

Carotid Stenting Study was conceived after the conclusion of CAVATAS [75], which

found no statistically significant difference in outcome between CAS and CEA

immediately following treatment or in the long term. However, carotid angioplasty

continued to evolve during the trial, and the use of stents in the procedure developed

while CAVATAS was still recruiting. CAS still promised the advantages of reduced

hospital stay, potential avoidance of a general anaesthetic, and a reduced rate of

surgery-specific complications such as neck haematoma and cranial nerve palsy. ICSS

was therefore designed as an international, multicentre, randomized, controlled open

clinical trial to test the difference between the long-term risk of fatal or disabling stroke

in patients with symptomatic carotid artery stenosis greater than 50% after

randomization to either CEA or CAS.

13.1.2 Selection and enrolment of trial centres & interventionists

50 academic centres in Europe, North America and Oceania enrolled patients in ICSS.

Each was required to provide a principal investigator qualified in neurology or internal

medicine to see patients prior to randomization and then again in follow-up. Surgeons

performing trial procedures were required to have carried out 50 CEA operations with

an annual rate of at least 10 cases per year, while CAS interventionists were required

to have performed 50 stenting procedures, at least 10 in the carotid artery territory. All

were expected to provide audit data to an ICSS accreditation committee showing a

satisfactory complication rate similar to that of ECST (7.0% risk stroke or death within

30 days of the procedure, 95% CI 5.8% to 8.3%) [36].

Centres unable to fulfil the above requirements for CAS competency were allowed to

join the trial and enrol patients as a “probationary centre”. CAS procedures carried out

at these centres were supervised by an experienced interventionist until 10 more

successful procedures were completed within the trial and the proctor was satisfied that

the interventionist in question could carry out the procedure independently.

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13.1.3 Selection of patients and randomization

Patients randomized in ICSS had symptomatic extracranial stenosis of the carotid

artery attributable to atherosclerotic disease. Stenosis had to be greater than 50% as

measured by the NASCET method [40] or an equivalent non-invasive method such as

carotid ultrasound, and symptoms were required to have occurred within the last 12

months.

Patients were excluded if they were thought unsuitable for either treatment due to

Tortuous carotid vascular anatomy

Proximal common carotid artery disease or the presence of thrombus

Pseudo-occlusion (>99% stenosis with normal distal runoff on angiography)

Distal stenosis or rigid neck rendering surgery hazardous or impossible

Previous CAS or CEA in the artery to be randomized

Clinical instability or serious co-morbid illness (“not fit for surgery”)

A life expectancy of less than 2 years due to a pre-existing condition

Planned coronary artery bypass grafting within 1 month of CAS or CEA

Refusal or inability to give written informed consent to trial participation or

refusal to be randomized to either treatment

Major stroke with no useful recovery of function within the territory of the artery

to be randomized

Prior to randomization patients were given written information about the trial and

informed consent to participate was given by the patient.

13.1.4 Baseline visit and investigations

At baseline visit, investigators recorded demographic information about the patient and

details of past medical history including vascular risk factors. Brain imaging, in the form

of CT or MRI, was required to identify previous areas of infarction or haemorrhage and

to provide a comparison with any post-procedure scans.

To confirm the presence and extent of carotid stenosis, imaging from at least one of the

following modalities was required

Catheter angiogram showing the carotid bifurcation

Bilateral MRI angiograms with a concordant Doppler ultrasound scan

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Bilateral CT angiograms with a concordant Doppler ultrasound scan

Bilateral Doppler ultrasound scan only, if the centre was able to provide

documented evidence of the reliability of their results through clinical audit and

if it was standard practise to treat on the basis of ultrasound alone at that centre

Pre-randomization clinical and imaging data were returned to the trial office in London.

13.1.5 Randomization procedure

Randomization was carried out by the Oxford Clinical Trials Service Unit, stratified by

centre with risk factors balanced between the two arms. Minimization was used to

balance patient characteristics between the two arms. Patients with stenosis in both

carotid arteries could only be randomized once, for the symptomatic artery to be

treated first. The allocated procedure was then required to be carried out as soon as

safely and practically possible after randomization. The possibility of a patient

becoming ineligible for revascularization after randomization in the trial or crossing over

to the other treatment was anticipated, and these patients were included in intention-to-

treat analyses.

13.1.6 Carotid endarterectomy

Carotid endarterectomy was carried out according to the operating surgeon and the

trial centre’s usual protocol. The type of anaesthesia to be used was not specified nor

was the choice of arterial reconstruction. The use of a patch to close the arteriotomy

was optional. All patients undergoing surgery were required to receive “best medical

care” including management of vascular risk factors and appropriate antiplatelet,

antihypertensive or cholesterol-lowering drugs.

13.1.7 Carotid stenting

Devices used in the carotid stenting procedure were required to be CE-marked and

were approved by the trial steering committee. The use of a cerebral protection device

was optional, but recommended “whenever the operator [thought] one could be safely

deployed”. Aspirin and clopidogrel prescription prior to the procedure and for a

minimum of 4 weeks after was recommended. The use of intra-procedural heparin to

prevent acute thrombosis secondary to instrumentation of the carotid was mandatory,

as was the administration of atropine or equivalent drugs to prevent haemodynamic

disturbance secondary to manipulation of the carotid baroreceptors. Finally, it was

anticipated that most patients would require balloon dilation (“pre-dilation”) of the

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stenotic lesion to facilitate the passage of equipment through the stenosis. Patients

undergoing CAS otherwise received the same “best medical care” as the surgical

group. Technical details of either CAS or CEA were returned to the trial office.

13.1.8 Post-procedure follow-up

Patients were monitored in hospital, and events occurring between the procedure and

discharge were reported on the technical data form. Patients were then followed-up by

a trial investigator at one month after the procedure.

13.1.9 Outcome events and adjudication

The main outcome events examined in the primary outcome of the trial and

subsequently in this thesis are defined below

Stroke – “an acute disturbance of focal neurological function with symptoms

lasting more than 24 hours resulting from intracranial vascular disturbance”

This diagnosis included retinal stroke causing loss of vision in one eye for more

than 24 hours

Myocardial infarction – recorded if the patient experienced two out of

o Cardiac enzyme rise more than twice the upper limit of normal range

o The development of specific ECG abnormalities

o A history of chest discomfort for at least 30 minutes

Cranial nerve palsy (within 30 days of the procedure) – reported by the

investigator in individual patients who experienced motor or sensory

disturbance, attributed to the procedure, in one of the cranial nerves.

Haematoma – defined by the investigator in patients who experienced bleeding

in the neck as a result of revascularization. “Severe haematoma” was defined

as haematoma requiring blood transfusion, re-operation or one that prolonged

hospital stay

Death

A clinical diagnosis of stroke was confirmed by brain CT or MRI carried out as soon as

possible after the clinical event. The cause of death was confirmed through clinical

reports from the treating centre and death certificate or post-mortem results where

available.

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Potential stroke or MI outcome events were reported in detail to the trial office as

above. An adjudication process was carried out to decide if the reported event met the

criteria of one of the trial outcome events. Adjudication was carried out by two

investigators at the trial office blinded to allocated treatment. A third, independent,

adjudicator then reviewed the event. If a disagreement occurred between adjudicators

the difference was resolved with the opinion of a second independent adjudicator and

consensus. Additional information on the clinical consequences of cranial nerve palsy

occurring within 30 days of CEA was sought by means of a questionnaire, detailed in

Appendix II.

Stroke or cranial nerve palsy was flagged as “disabling” if the patient experienced an

increase in their modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score to 3 or more where that increase

was attributable to the event at a specified time-point during follow-up.

13.1.10 Sample size and statistical analysis

Sample size in ICSS was planned as 1500 patients in fully-enrolled centres, with a

calculated 95% confidence interval for a difference in risk between CAS and CEA of

±3% for the composite outcome of stroke, myocardial infarction or death within 30 days

of treatment. Additional patients were enrolled in probationary centres.

13.1.11 Ethical approval and safety monitoring

ICSS was approved by a Multicentre Research Ethics Committee (MREC) in the United

Kingdom. In addition, individual centres obtained their own local ethics committee

approval before starting randomization in the trial.

The safety of the patients enrolled in ICSS was overseen by a Data Monitoring

Committee comprising a neurologist, medical statistician, surgeon and interventionist.

Interim analyses were carried out during the trial to ensure that morbidity and mortality

remained within acceptable limits. Individual centres’ results were monitored by the trial

manager, with two consecutive deaths or three consecutive major events at an

individual centre within 30 days of treatment in one arm of the study prompting a review

of outcome events at this centre. Similarly, a cumulative stroke, MI or death risk of

>10% over 20 cases would prompt a review.

During the course of the trial concern was raised, by the above mechanism, about the

results of two investigators performing CAS procedures at two separate supervised

centres. Both centres suspended recruitment while outcome events were reviewed,

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although one centre subsequently re-started enrolment into ICSS with a different

interventionist performing trial procedures [82]. The results presented in this thesis

include patients treated by these investigators where the patients received their

allocated treatment.

The ICSS-MRI Substudy 13.2

13.2.1 Introduction

Complementary to the International Carotid Stenting Study was the ICSS-MRI

Substudy. The aim of this substudy was to compare the risk of ischaemic (and possibly

sub-clinical) brain injury as assessed by MRI in patients undergoing stenting in ICSS

compared to those undergoing surgery.

13.2.2 Substudy design

Patients enrolled in the ICSS-MRI Substudy received standard treatment as specified

in the ICSS protocol above. They additionally underwent brain MRI 1-3 days before

treatment, 1-3 days after treatment and approximately 30 days after revascularization.

Patients with a contraindication to MRI (e.g. metallic implant or claustrophobia) were

excluded from participation in the study. The following MRI sequences were specified

in the trial protocol

Diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) to detect acute brain ischaemia or infarction

Gradient echo T2*-weighted to detect brain haemorrhage

T1-weighted and fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) to assess whether

acute brain lesions on DWI persisted to become permanent FLAIR lesions at 30

days after the revascularization

13.2.3 Sample size, data and statistical analyses

A sample size of 200 patients was planned assuming a risk of new DWI lesions after

endarterectomy of 25%, giving a 90% power to detect a doubling of the risk of a new

DWI lesion in the stenting group.

The analysis of brain imaging in the ICSS-MRI Substudy is described in more detail in

Chapter 18. Two investigators independently recorded the presence, volume and

location of ischaemic and haemorrhagic lesions on each scan, and a third investigator

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reviewed in cases of disagreement. Scans were reported blind to allocated treatment or

the nature of the scan (e.g. pre- or post-procedural).

CONSORT flow diagram 13.3

The progress of patients through the International Carotid Stenting Study is outlined in

the CONSORT flow diagram in Figure 6 below.

Trial funding 13.4

ICSS was funded by the UK Medical Research Council, the Stroke Association, Sanofi-

Synthélabo, and the European Union. ICSS is a registered clinical trial: ISRCTN

25337470.

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Figure 6. ICSS CONSORT trial diagram

855 assigned to Stenting 858 assigned to Endarterectomy

853 analysed by intention to treat from

randomisation until end of follow-up

857 analysed by intention to treat from

randomisation until end of follow-up

2 withdrew all consent

immediately after randomisation

1 withdrew all consent immediately

after randomisation

9 crossed over to endarterectomy

2 anatomy unsuitable

3 medical contraindications

1 refused treatment

3 other reasons

16 underwent no procedure

1 disabling stroke before

intended procedure

5 artery occluded

3 artery less than 50% stenosed

1 anatomy unsuitable

2 other medical contraindications

3 other reasons

15 crossed over to stenting

1 anatomy unsuitable

6 medical contraindications

4 refused treatment

4 other reasons

21 underwent no procedure

2 died before intended procedure

3 disabling stroke before intended

procedure

9 artery occluded

1 artery less than 50% stenosed

3 medical contraindications

1 refused treatment

2 other reasons

828 stenting procedures initiated 821 endarterectomy procedures initiated

64 stenting aborted

752 per-protocol patients

reached 30-day follow-up in

ICSS

12 follow-up <30 days

10 fatal events

2 had no further follow-up

2 endarterectomy aborted

811 per-protocol patients

reached 30-day follow-up in

ICSS

8 follow-up <30 days

4 fatal events

4 had no further follow-up

1713 patients randomised

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14. Risk factors for stroke, myocardial infarction or death

following carotid endarterectomy

Introduction 14.1

The North American Symptomatic Carotid Endarterectomy Trial (NASCET) [35], the

European Carotid Surgery Trial (ECST) [36] and the smaller Veteran’s Affairs Trial [39]

demonstrated a reduction in the long-term rate of recurrent stroke in patients with

>50% symptomatic carotid artery stenosis undergoing carotid endarterectomy

compared with those on medical therapy. Meta-analysis of the results of these three

trials, and two smaller studies, suggests that for every 11 symptomatic patients

undergoing CEA one outcome event is prevented for the combined endpoint of any

stroke or perioperative death [133].

However, CEA in these trials carried a risk of perioperative stroke or death of 7.0%

(95% CI 6.2 to 8.0) [133] and subsequent studies, focussing on these short-term

measures of safety, continue to demonstrate a significant risk of major complications

following revascularization [134] [96]. Perioperative stroke and MI have been shown to

have a significant adverse impact on long-term survival, and stroke in particular may

halve survival in the first year after surgery [135]. The choice of anaesthesia and

surgical technique during CEA varies [136] [137], and despite CEA being a long-

established technique for revascularization there remains debate about the optimal

processes of care for surgery including perioperative medical therapy, type of arterial

reconstruction and mode of anaesthesia to prevent complications.

This analysis aimed to determine whether there were groups of patients at higher risk

of stroke, MI or death within 30 days of CEA in the International Carotid Stenting Study

and whether there are surgical practices associated with higher risk.

Methods 14.2

14.2.1 Study design & CEA procedure

This chapter presents a per-protocol analysis of patients enrolled in ICSS who were

randomized to CEA and in whom the allocated procedure was initiated. The inclusion

and exclusion criteria for ICSS are outlined in Chapter 13.1 and the trial protocol is

detailed in full in Appendix IV. Patients over the age of 40 years old could be enrolled in

ICSS if they presented with recently-symptomatic carotid artery stenosis >50% due to

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atheroma. Patients were excluded from randomization in ICSS if they were unsuitable

for surgery due to a surgically-inaccessibly high level of stenosis, if they had a rigid

neck making positioning difficult for surgery, or if there was previous revascularization

of the artery to be randomized.

CEA in ICSS was performed according to the surgeon’s usual practice – the type of

arterial reconstruction was not specified, nor was the mode of anaesthesia. Medical

therapy for control of vascular risk factors was required in both groups in the trial, but

the prescription of one or more antiplatelet agents prior to or after surgery was at the

operator’s discretion. Surgeons in ICSS were required to provide audited complication

rates within acceptable limits and to have performed a minimum of 50 CEA procedures

prior to joining the trial with a minimum volume of 10 procedures per year. In addition to

this technical information, centres provided demographic information about patients

and specified whether their general policy was to send patients to a specialized post-

procedure ward such as a high-dependency or intensive care unit, or whether patients

were admitted to a general surgical or medical ward post-operatively.

14.2.2 Outcome events

The combined endpoint of stroke, MI or death within 30 days of the procedure was

analysed. Events were reported in detail to investigators at the central trial office.

Confirmatory evidence was required where available: CT or MRI brain after stroke,

cardiac enzymes and / or ECG after MI, death certificate and autopsy report if available

following death. Stroke was defined as “an acute disturbance of focal neurological

function lasting more than 24 hours resulting from intracranial vascular disturbance”. A

diagnosis of MI required two out of three features – a clinical history of chest discomfort

lasting at least 30 minutes, cardiac enzyme rise more than twice the upper limit of

normal or the development of specific ECG abnormalities. Outcome events were

submitted to an external, independent, adjudicator who was masked to treatment

allocation. If their assessment differed from the trial office’s initial assessment a second

external adjudicator reviewed the event. Differences in adjudication were resolved by

consensus.

14.2.3 Statistical methods

Only patients in ICSS in whom the allocated procedure was initiated were included in

this analysis. Trial patients who crossed-over to medical therapy or received CEA after

a prior stenting procedure (attempted or completed) were excluded from this analysis.

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CEA was considered “initiated” if the patient underwent either local or general

anaesthesia prior to surgical incision. Risk factors for stroke, MI or death were

examined sequentially in a univariable binomial regression analysis using maximum

likelihood estimation. Second events within 30 days of the procedure were not counted.

Patients with missing data were excluded from each relevant analysis. The risk ratio for

each baseline or technical variable was estimated with a 95% confidence interval. Wald

tests were used for continuous and binary predictors, with an overall likelihood test for

categorical predictors of more than two levels. No correction was applied for multiple

comparisons. p<0.05 was accepted as conferring statistical significance in all analyses.

A multivariable model was developed using a forward stepwise approach. Analyses

were performed with Stata (StataCorp, 2011. Stata Statistical Software: Release 12.

College Station, TX: StataCorp LP).

Results 14.3

14.3.1 Outcome events

14.3.2 Patient and procedure characteristics

CEA was initiated in 821/855 patients allocated to the procedure in ICSS. Patient and

procedural characteristics for this group are presented in detail in Figure 7 along with

the results of univariable analysis. 70.4% of patients were male and 52% of patients

were aged 70 years or more (the median age in the CEA arm of ICSS at the date of

enrolment). Vascular risk factors were common. 21.2% of patients were diabetic,

66.2% were receiving treatment for hyperlipidaemia and 69.7% were receiving

treatment for hypertension.

Arterial reconstruction was by patch closure in 55.9%, “standard” closure without patch

in 22.1% and by eversion endarterectomy in 6.0%. Vein interposition was used in only

0.4%. General anaesthesia or combined local-general anaesthesia was administered

to 79.2% of patients. A shunt was used during the procedure in 39.5%. An antiplatelet

drug was prescribed to 88.4% of patients prior to the procedure, of whom 30.1% were

taking two or more antiplatelet medications.

14.3.3 Characteristics and timing of outcome events

27/821 patients (3.3%) suffered a stroke of any severity within 30 days of the

procedure, 5 suffered MI, and one patient died of another cause giving a combined risk

of stroke, death or MI within 30 days of the procedure of 4.0%. 13/33 (39.4%) of these

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events occurred on day 0 – the day of the procedure, the remainder occurring between

days 1 and 30. 7/33 (21.2%) events occurred on or after the date of discharge. The

median length of stay was 4 days before discharge.

14.3.4 Patient and procedural risk factors for stroke, MI or death within 30 days

of the procedure

The results of univariable analyses of patient and procedural factors on the risk of

stroke, MI or death within 30 days of CEA are presented in Figure 7. The risk of the

combined outcome was significantly higher in female patients (RR 1.98, 95% CI 1.02 to

3.87, p=0.05) and with each increasing 10mmHg of baseline diastolic blood pressure

(RR 1.31 for each +10mmHg, 95% CI 1.20 to 1.66, p=0.04). The time from the index

event that prompted randomization in the trial (stroke or TIA) to the date of surgery was

also a significant predictor, but this this result was influenced by one outlying patient.

Removing this patient from the per-protocol population in a sensitivity analysis resulted

in a non-significant p-value (RR 1.01 per 7 days, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.06, p=0.48). The

age of the patient, the side of surgery, the level of disability and the degree of ipsilateral

or contralateral carotid artery stenosis were not predictors of the risk of stroke, MI or

death within 30 days of surgery.

Shunt use (RR 0.99, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.96, p=0.98), local anaesthesia only vs general or

combined local-general anaesthesia (RR 0.48, 95% CI 0.15 to 1.57, p=0.23) and the

type of surgical reconstruction (i.e. primary closure vs patch vs vein interposition) did

not statistically significantly influence risk despite one out of three patients in whom

vein interposition was used experiencing an event.

Centres with a policy of sending patients to a specialized ward (such as a high

dependency or intensive care unit) following CEA reported a lower risk of stroke, MI or

death within 30 days of surgery (RR 0.57, 95% CI 0.29 to 1.13, p=0.11), but this result

was not statistically significant.

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Figure 7. Univariable predictors of the risk of stroke, myocardial infarction or death

in 821 patients undergoing CEA in whom the procedure was initiated

Reconstruction:StandardEversionPatchVein Interposition

Shunt use:NoYes

Anaesthesia:GeneralLocal

Antiplatelet pre-procedure:NoYes

>1 antiplatelet pre-procedure:NoYes

Anticoagulant pre-procedure:NoYes

Antiplatelet post-procedure:NoYes

Anticoagulant post-procedure:NoYes

Sex:MaleFemale

Age in years:<7070+

Treated hypertension:NoYes

Cardiac failure:NoYes

Angina:NoYes

Previous MI:NoYes

Previouis CABG:NoYes

Atrial fibrillation:NoYes

Other cardioembolic source of embolus:NoYes

Diabetes:NoYes

Variable

10/182 (5.5%)1/49 (2%)13/459 (2.8%)1/3 (33.3%)

20/494 (4%)13/324 (4%)

28/650 (4.3%)3/144 (2.1%)

2/52 (3.8%)27/726 (3.7%)

17/531 (3.2%)12/247 (4.9%)

22/619 (3.6%)7/159 (4.4%)

5/87 (5.7%)24/691 (3.5%)

23/574 (4%)6/204 (2.9%)

18/578 (3.1%)15/243 (6.2%)

13/391 (3.3%)20/430 (4.7%)

6/242 (2.5%)27/572 (4.7%)

33/770 (4.3%)0/44 (0%)

27/742 (3.6%)6/72 (8.3%)

25/664 (3.8%)8/150 (5.3%)

31/703 (4.4%)2/111 (1.8%)

32/760 (4.2%)1/54 (1.9%)

31/798 (3.9%)2/16 (12.5%)

24/640 (3.8%)9/174 (5.2%)

/ No. pts (%)No. events

1.000.37 (0.05,2.83)0.52 (0.23,1.15)6.07 (1.10,33.54)

1.000.99 (0.50,1.96)

1.000.48 (0.15,1.57)

1.000.97 (0.24,3.96)

1.001.52 (0.74,3.13)

1.001.24 (0.54,2.85)

1.000.60 (0.24,1.54)

1.000.73 (0.30,1.78)

1.001.98 (1.02,3.87)

1.001.40 (0.71,2.77)

1.001.90 (0.80,4.55)

N/A

1.002.29 (0.98,5.36)

1.001.42 (0.65,3.08)

1.000.41 (0.10,1.68)

1.000.44 (0.06,3.16)

1.003.22 (0.84,12.31)

1.001.38 (0.65,2.91)

ratio (95% CI)Risk

0.12

0.98

0.23

0.96

0.26

0.61

0.29

0.49

0.05

0.34

0.15

0.06

0.38

0.22

0.41

0.09

0.40

P-value

1.000.37 (0.05,2.83)0.52 (0.23,1.15)6.07 (1.10,33.54)

1.000.99 (0.50,1.96)

1.000.48 (0.15,1.57)

1.000.97 (0.24,3.96)

1.001.52 (0.74,3.13)

1.001.24 (0.54,2.85)

1.000.60 (0.24,1.54)

1.000.73 (0.30,1.78)

1.001.98 (1.02,3.87)

1.001.40 (0.71,2.77)

1.001.90 (0.80,4.55)

N/A

1.002.29 (0.98,5.36)

1.001.42 (0.65,3.08)

1.000.41 (0.10,1.68)

1.000.44 (0.06,3.16)

1.003.22 (0.84,12.31)

1.001.38 (0.65,2.91)

ratio (95% CI)Risk

0.12

0.98

0.23

0.96

0.26

0.61

0.29

0.49

0.05

0.34

0.15

0.06

0.38

0.22

0.41

0.09

0.40

P-value

1.05 .2 .5 1 2 4 6 10 15

Risk Ratio (95%CI)

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Figure 7 continued

Peripheral arterial disease:NoYes

Smoking status:NeverFormerCurrent

Treated hyperlipidaemia:NoYes

Degree of stenosis in treated artery:50-69%70-99%

Degree of stenosis in contralateral artery:0-49%50-69%70-99%Occluded

Nature of ipsilateral index event:StrokeRetinal StrokeTIAAFX

Multiple ipsilateral events prior to randomisation:NoYes

Prior ipsilateral stroke:NoYes

Baseline mRS:012345

Side of procedure:LeftRight

Centre policy post-procedure:WardICU

Clamping time (per 20 mins):

Duration of surgery (per 20 mins):

Age (per 5 years):

Baseline systolic BP (per 10mmHg):

Baseline diastolic BP (per 10mmHg):

Baseline total cholesterol (per 1 mmol/l):

Time index event to procedure (per 7days):

Variable

28/683 (4.1%)5/131 (3.8%)

10/220 (4.5%)17/404 (4.2%)6/190 (3.2%)

13/275 (4.7%)20/539 (3.7%)

2/72 (2.8%)31/749 (4.1%)

19/539 (3.5%)5/136 (3.7%)7/104 (6.7%)1/35 (2.9%)

15/360 (4.2%)1/22 (4.5%)14/292 (4.8%)3/134 (2.2%)

19/513 (3.7%)14/308 (4.5%)

28/718 (3.9%)5/103 (4.9%)

10/307 (3.3%)8/194 (4.1%)9/212 (4.2%)3/74 (4.1%)2/17 (11.8%)0/3 (0%)

19/427 (4.4%)14/394 (3.6%)

16/284 (5.6%)16/495 (3.2%)

24/609 (3.9%)

22/685 (3.2%)

33/821 (4%)

31/784 (4%)

31/785 (3.9%)

31/679 (4.6%)

32/818 (3.9%)

/ No. pts (%)No. events

1.000.93 (0.37,2.37)

1.000.93 (0.43,1.99)0.70 (0.26,1.88)

1.000.79 (0.40,1.55)

1.001.49 (0.36,6.10)

1.001.04 (0.40,2.74)1.91 (0.82,4.43)0.81 (0.11,5.88)

1.001.09 (0.15,7.89)1.15 (0.57,2.35)0.54 (0.16,1.83)

1.001.23 (0.62,2.41)

1.001.25 (0.49,3.15)

1.001.27 (0.51,3.15)1.30 (0.54,3.15)1.24 (0.35,4.40)3.61 (0.86,15.20)

1.000.80 (0.41,1.57)

1.000.57 (0.29,1.13)

0.95 (0.69,1.31)

0.89 (0.73,1.09)

1.08 (0.89,1.30)

1.13 (0.99,1.29)

1.30 (1.02,1.66)

0.96 (0.73,1.25)

1.01 (0.98,1.04)

ratio (95% CI)Risk

0.88

0.75

0.49

0.58

0.54

0.62

0.55

0.64

0.77

0.52

0.11

0.75

0.27

0.45

0.07

0.04

0.74

0.48

P-value

1.000.93 (0.37,2.37)

1.000.93 (0.43,1.99)0.70 (0.26,1.88)

1.000.79 (0.40,1.55)

1.001.49 (0.36,6.10)

1.001.04 (0.40,2.74)1.91 (0.82,4.43)0.81 (0.11,5.88)

1.001.09 (0.15,7.89)1.15 (0.57,2.35)0.54 (0.16,1.83)

1.001.23 (0.62,2.41)

1.001.25 (0.49,3.15)

1.001.27 (0.51,3.15)1.30 (0.54,3.15)1.24 (0.35,4.40)3.61 (0.86,15.20)

1.000.80 (0.41,1.57)

1.000.57 (0.29,1.13)

0.95 (0.69,1.31)

0.89 (0.73,1.09)

1.08 (0.89,1.30)

1.13 (0.99,1.29)

1.30 (1.02,1.66)

0.96 (0.73,1.25)

1.01 (0.98,1.04)

ratio (95% CI)Risk

0.88

0.75

0.49

0.58

0.54

0.62

0.55

0.64

0.77

0.52

0.11

0.75

0.27

0.45

0.07

0.04

0.74

0.48

P-value

1.05 .2 .5 1 2 4 6 10 15

Risk Ratio (95%CI)

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In a multivariable model, only diastolic blood pressure remained a significant predictor

of the risk of stroke, MI or death within 30 days of the procedure in the presence of any

other included variables (RR 1.30 for each +10mmHg, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.66, p=0.04).

This model included only 785 patients for whom complete predictor data were

available.

Discussion and conclusion 14.4

14.4.1 Summary

The overall risk of stroke, MI or death within 30 days of CEA in ICSS was 4.0%. The

majority of these events were strokes, and the majority of events occurred before

discharge. Of the baseline demographic and vascular risk factors examined, only sex

and increasing diastolic blood pressure at baseline significantly predicted the risk of

stroke, MI or death. Female patients experienced roughly double the risk of male

patients of reaching the composite endpoint. In a multivariable model, only baseline

diastolic blood pressure remained a significant predictor of risk after adjustment for all

other included variables.

None of the surgical technical variables examined – type of anaesthesia, type of

arterial reconstruction, variation in medical therapy or shunt use – significantly

predicted risk.

14.4.2 Discussion

The finding that women undergoing CEA in ICSS experienced a higher risk of stroke,

MI or death than men is broadly consistent with findings from other randomized trials

and audits of carotid endarterectomy outcomes [138] [133] [139] [140], although recent

data from the Society for Vascular Surgery Vascular Registry suggest a similar

complication rate (around 4% risk of stroke, MI or death within 30 days of CEA) for both

men and women outside a clinical trial setting [141]. Although a statistically significant

difference was observed in ICSS this result was not confirmed in multivariable analysis.

This suggests that differences in baseline patient characteristics between male and

female patients might explain this difference in risk [118], although this analysis had

limited power to detect predictors because of the relative paucity of outcome events.

An alternative explanation for a higher observed risk of complications in women may be

that the smaller carotid artery diameter in women is associated with procedural stroke

due to in-situ thrombosis following more technically-demanding surgery [142] [143]

[139]. Or perhaps women, with an older age of onset of cerebrovascular disease than

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men, might have more medical comorbidities that increase procedural risk [144]. In

addition, many of the post-procedural strokes experienced by ICSS patients

undergoing CEA occurred some days after the procedure, and it has been suggested

that women are at a higher risk of post-procedural embolism [145] [146].

Notably, women with symptomatic carotid stenosis may also experience less benefit in

terms of stroke prevention from CEA, particularly where the procedure is delayed [147].

Thus any risk-benefit discussion with female patients should highlight both a potential

increased risk of minor complications as well as a reduced overall benefit as compared

with men.

Time from the index event prompting randomization in ICSS to the date of surgery did

not appear to influence risk, but the majority of patients in ICSS waited more than 14

days after randomization for surgery [82] which exceeds the maximum recommended

delay in current guidelines [128]. In 2012, 33% of UK patients undergoing CEA were

operated on within 14 days of their symptoms. However, there is some evidence that

very early CEA, within 48 hours of symptoms, is associated with increased risk [148].

In ICSS surgical technique and mode of anaesthesia had less influence on short-term

outcome than patient characteristics. The largest randomized trial of general vs local

anaesthesia for CEA, the General Anaesthesia versus Local Anaesthesia for carotid

surgery trial (GALA), found no difference in the risk of stroke, MI or death within 30

days of surgery between the two groups [104] [103]. There is currently insufficient

evidence to suggest that routine shunt use reduces perioperative stroke or death [106],

by maintaining cerebral perfusion pressure in the presence of a tight contralateral

carotid stenosis, although there is some suggestion that patch closure of the artery, as

opposed to primary closure, is associated with a lower risk of perioperative ipsilateral

stroke [107].

The association between baseline blood pressure and outcome of surgery has also

been demonstrated previously in a systematic review including patients from the

European Carotid Surgery Trial [149]. Despite detailed baseline and follow-up

measurements, ICSS investigators did not collect perioperative blood pressures and

therefore it was not possible to assess the influence of perioperative haemodynamic

control on outcome. Patients who are transferred to Intensive Care or a similar

specialized unit after the procedure might be expected to have better optimization of

their blood pressures and medications. In ICSS 8.3% of patients undergoing CEA

experienced post-procedural hypertension which was associated with higher baseline

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blood pressure [150] and in other studies has been shown to be associated with stroke

or death [151] [152]. What is not known is whether closer control of blood pressure

after stroke or TIA could reduce the risks of subsequent CEA. Although not statistically

significant, ICSS patients treated in centres with a policy of sending the patient to

intensive care afterwards experienced a much-reduced rate of complications, which

could in turn be due to closer monitoring of haemodynamic parameters and treatment

of excessively high or low blood pressures. Current guidelines for CEA have focussed

on patient selection, procedural technique and medication use [153]. Therefore given

our findings on diastolic blood pressure, and that more events occurred on the days

following the procedure than the day of the procedure itself, future work on the safety of

CEA should additionally address overall perioperative care and management of

physiological parameters.

14.4.3 Limitations

The risk of stroke, MI or death associated with carotid endarterectomy was acceptably

low in ICSS. However, a low number of outcome events limited the power to detect a

significant difference between subgroups of patients and limited the number of factors

supported in a multivariable model. Multiple statistical comparisons are made in this

analysis without correction, raising the possibility of a Type 1 (false positive) error.

Associations between baseline characteristics or processes of care and the outcome

do not necessarily imply causation, and this was not a randomized comparison

between surgical techniques.

Other factors or more generalized measures of health not recorded in ICSS, such as

the patient’s American Society of Anaesthesiology (ASA) grade, may be more useful

predictors of adverse outcome [154].

14.4.4 Conclusions

The relative safety of CEA in ICSS limited power to detect predictors of risk.

Nonetheless, diastolic blood pressure at baseline was a significant independent

predictor of the risk of stroke, MI or death within 30 days of carotid endarterectomy. It is

possible that careful attention to blood pressure control following stroke or TIA may

reduce the risks associated with subsequent CEA in patients with underlying carotid

stenosis, although concern exists about acute lowering of blood pressure following

stroke or TIA in the presence of carotid stenosis. The finding that around 20% of events

occurred on or after the day of discharge underlines the importance of post-discharge

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follow-up to ensure that patients receive treatment for any late complications and to

ensure that surgical audit data include all late events. Surgical results should also be

carefully audited in female patients to ensure that the risk of complications remains

acceptably low.

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15. Validation of existing risk scores for carotid

endarterectomy

Introduction 15.1

CEA remains the standard of care for patients with 50-99% symptomatic carotid

stenosis, as measured by the NASCET method [40]. However, despite improvements

in the care of surgical patients, and despite innovations in surgical and anaesthetic

technique for carotid endarterectomy, data from a systematic review of studies

published between 1994 and 2001 suggest that risk of stroke or death within 30 days of

surgery remained clinically significant at 6.5% (95% CI 4.3% to 8.7%) in studies

involving assessment of study endpoints by neurologists [96]. These studies are

comparable with ICSS in which 4.7% of patients randomized to CEA suffered stroke or

death [82] within 30 days of surgery.

Research since the landmark NASCET and ECST trials has attempted to define the

patient at high risk of complications following surgery. Complications of specific

concern in CEA include stroke, myocardial infarction, death, neck haematoma and

cranial nerve palsy. However, few risk factors or scoring systems found to be

significant predictors in one group of patients have been validated in other cohorts and

the usefulness of their application in everyday clinical decision-making remains

unclear. Risk scores may give patients and clinicians an individualized estimate of the

risk of suffering stroke or death within 30 days of endarterectomy, and could allow

calculation of the net benefit of surgery in long-term stroke prevention.

The performance of three risk scores in patients allocated to surgery the International

Carotid Stenting Study is assessed in this chapter. The patient populations from which

these scores derived most closely match the inclusion criteria for ICSS and comprise

clinical characteristics that are apparent at baseline visit.

Rothwell et al. [98] developed a prognostic model using data from patients undergoing

CEA in the European Carotid Surgery Trial (ECST) in the 1990s. ECST enrolled

patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis and randomized them to either carotid

endarterectomy or medical treatment [36]. A model to predict the risk of stroke or death

within 30 days of the procedure was calculated in patients with 0-69% stenosis of the

symptomatic artery and later validated in patients with 70-99% stenosis. Predictors of

risk were female sex, peripheral vascular disease, and high systolic blood pressure.

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Tu et al. [155] developed a score to predict the risk of stroke or death within 30 days of

CEA in 6038 patients undergoing surgery in Ontario, Canada. 69% of those patients

were symptomatic, and 95% had ICA stenosis between 50-100%. The average age

was 68 years. Significant predictors of stroke were TIA or stroke in the 6 months prior

to surgery, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, diabetes and contralateral carotid occlusion.

Finally, the prediction model developed by Kuhan et al. [156] examined the patient and

procedural characteristics of 839 patients undergoing CEA in 2 vascular units in the

United Kingdom between 1992 and 1999. 87% of these patients were symptomatic,

60% were male and the median age was 68. Significant risk factors for stroke or death

within 30 days of CEA were “heart disease” (comprising angina, myocardial infarction,

heart failure or arrhythmia), diabetes and stroke as the index event prompting

intervention. None of the surgical variables included in the study (shunt use, patch use,

operating surgeon, vascular unit or the side of operation) significantly predicted risk.

A number of other publications address risk factors for complications of CEA, but were

not validated in this patient cohort as they included factors not measured at baseline in

ICSS patients [157] [158] [159] [160], included a large proportion of asymptomatic

patients [158] [161] [162] or focus on operator, hospital or process of care factors that

are modifiable and therefore of limited use in predicting the risk in individual patients

[163] [164] [165].

Methods 15.2

The performance of the three risk scores predicting the risk of stroke or death within 30

days of CEA was evaluated [98] [155] [156]. To test the performance of each risk

score, patients were assigned “risk points” according to their baseline characteristics.

The characteristics predicting risk in each risk score are outlined in Tables 3 to 5

below. Baseline patient characteristics were collected by investigators in ICSS at the

time of the patient’s enrolment into the trial and sent to the central trial office in London.

The occurrence of stroke or death within 30 days of the procedure was examined in a

per-protocol population of patients in ICSS in whom the allocated procedure was

initiated. CEA was deemed to have been initiated if local or general anaesthesia was

administered prior to the planned commencement of surgery. The adjudication of

events is described in more detail in Chapters 13 and 14. In brief, stroke was defined

as “an acute disturbance of focal neurological function lasting more than 24 hours

resulting from intracranial vascular disturbance”, and confirmatory evidence was

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required where available in the form of CT or MR brain imaging. Centres reporting

death within 30 days of the procedure provided either a death certificate or autopsy

report if available.

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Table 3. Allocation of risk points in the Rothwell risk score

Study Risk factors Risk points

Rothwell et al.

(1999) [98]

Female sex

1

Peripheral vascular disease

1

Systolic BP > 180mmHg 1

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Table 4. Allocation of risk points in the Tu risk score

Study Risk factors Risk points

Tu et al.

(2003) [155]

TIA or stroke in the 6 months prior to surgery 1

Atrial fibrillation 1

Heart failure 1

Diabetes 1

Contralateral carotid occlusion 1

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Table 5. Allocation of risk points in the Kuhan risk score

Study Risk factors Risk points

Kuhan et al.

(2001)

[156]

Heart disease (any of angina, MI, heart failure, arrhythmia) 1

Stroke as the index event prompting surgery 1

Diabetes (any type) 1

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A 95% confidence interval for the risk of stroke or death within 30 days of the

procedure was generated, and the performance of the risk score across groups with

increasing score was tested by means of a chi-squared (χ2) test for trend. The

“predicted” risk of stroke or death within 30 days of surgery represents the result of

applying the risk score to the population in which it was originally developed. Groups in

which no events occurred were combined with lower-risk groups to enable the

statistical comparison to be carried out. Receiver operator curves (ROC) were plotted

to assess the performance of each risk score, and the area under the curve (AUC) was

calculated with 95% confidence intervals and significance test. Statistical analyses

were performed using GraphPad (GraphPad Software, 2013. GraphPad Instat version

3.00 for Windows 95. San Diego, California: www.graphpad.com).

Results 15.3

The baseline characteristics of patients included in this analysis, and how many

patients possessed characteristics which feature in each of the three risk scores, are

presented in detail in Chapter 14.3.2 and Figure 7. 70.4% of patients were male, and

52% were aged 70 years or more. 59/821 (7.2%) patients had systolic blood pressure

>180mmHg, and 236 patients (28.7%) had “heart disease” as defined in the Kuhan risk

score (any of angina, MI, heart failure or arrhythmia). 174 patients (21.2%) were

diabetic, and 131 (16.0%) had a diagnosis of peripheral vascular disease.

28/821 (3.4%) patients allocated to CEA in ICSS, in whom the procedure was initiated,

suffered stroke or death within 30 days of the procedure.

15.3.1 Rothwell (1999) risk score

The results of applying the Rothwell score to ICSS patients allocated to CEA are

detailed in Table 6. The risk of stroke or death within 30 days of surgery was 2.5%

(95% CI 1.3% to 4.4%) in those with a score of 0, 4.4% (95% CI 2.6% to 7.4%) in those

with a score of 1 and 5.4% (95% CI 1.3% to 15.2%) in those with a score of 2. 2

patients had a score of 3 but neither suffered an event. There was an increase in the

observed risk of an outcome event with increasing score that was not statistically

significant (p=0.10). 25/28 (89.2%) events occurred in the lowest risk groups (score 0

to 1).

A receiver operator curve (ROC) was plotted for the results of applying the Rothwell

score to the ICSS dataset and is presented in Figure 8. The area under the curve was

0.58 (95% CI 0.48 to 0.69, p=0.14), indicating poor performance.

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Table 6. Results of application of the Rothwell (1999) risk score to 821 patients undergoing CEA in ICSS

Score Number at risk Number of events Predicted event rate % (95% CI) Observed event rate % 95% CI for observed event rate

0 448 11 4.7 (2.6 to 7.6) 2.5 (1.3 to 4.4)

1 315 14 7.3 (4.3 to 11.0) 4.4 (2.6 to 7.4)

2 56 3 12.1 (5.0 to 23.0) 5.4 (1.3 to 15.2)

3 2 0 16.7 (4.2 to 64.0) 0.0

Totals 821 28

χ2 test for trend p=0.10

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Figure 8. Receiver operator curve for application of the Rothwell (1999) risk score

to 821 patients undergoing CEA in ICSS

Darker line represents receiver operator curve

Straight line represents area under curve =0.5

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15.3.2 Tu (2003) risk score

The results of applying the Tu score to the ICSS dataset are detailed in Table 7. The

risk of stroke or death within 30 days of the procedure was 2.6% (95% CI 0.6% to

7.6%) in those with a score of 0, 3.4% (95% CI 2.0% to 5.4%) in those with a score of 1

and 4.7% (95% CI 2.4% to 8.9%) in those with a score of 2. Patients with higher scores

did not experience an event. The increase in the risk of an event with increasing score

did not reach statistical significance (p=0.49). All events occurred in lower risk groups

(score 0 to 2).

In a receiver operator curve plot of these results, presented in Figure 9, the AUC was

0.526 (95% CI 0.42 to 0.63, p=0.64) indicating poor performance.

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Table 7. Results of application of the Tu (2003) risk score to 821 patients undergoing CEA in ICSS

Score Number at risk Number of events Predicted event rate % (95% CI) Observed event rate % 95% CI for observed event rate

0 117 3 3.3 2.6 (0.6 to 7.6)

1 477 16 6.1 3.4 (2.0 to 5.4)

2 190 9 9.5 4.7 (2.4 to 8.9)

3 33 0 9.8 0.0 N/A

4 4 0 15.8 0.0 N/A

5 0 0 N/A N/A N/A

Totals 821 28

χ2 test for trend p=0.49

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Figure 9. Receiver operator curve for application of the Tu (2003) risk score to

821 patients undergoing CEA in ICSS

Darker line represents receiver operator curve

Straight line represents area under curve =0.5

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15.3.3 Kuhan (2001) risk score

The results of applying the Kuhan score to the ICSS dataset are outlined in Table 8

below. The risk of stroke or death within 30 days of CEA was 2.2% (95% CI 0.9% to

4.8%) in patients with a score of 0, 3.7% (95% CI 2.1% to 6.3%) in those with a score

of 1, 4.2% (95% CI 1.9% to 8.6%) in those with a score of 2 and 5.9% (95% CI 0.7% to

20.0%) in those with a score of 3. 19/28 (67.9%) events occurred in lower risk groups

(scores 0 to 1).

The area under the receiver operator curve, illustrated in Figure 10, was 0.58 (95% CI

0.47 to 0.68, p=0.18), indicating poor performance.

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Table 8. Results of application of the Kuhan (2001) risk score to 821 patients undergoing CEA in ICSS

Score Number at risk Number of events Predicted event rate % (95% CI) Observed event rate % 95% CI for observed event rate

0 272 6 1.4 (0.9 to 2.1) 2.2 (0.9 to 4.8)

1 349 13 3.2 (2.1 to 4.8) 3.7 (2.1 to 6.3)

2 166 7 7.2 (2.5 to 19.0) 4.2 (1.9 to 8.6)

3 34 2 15.3 (2.8 to 53.1) 5.9 (0.7 to 20.0)

Totals 821 28

χ2 test for trend p=0.15

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Figure 10. Receiver operator curve for application of the Kuhan (2001) risk score to

821 patients undergoing CEA in ICSS

Darker line represents receiver operator curve

Straight line represents area under curve =0.5

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Discussion and conclusion 15.4

15.4.1 Summary

Each of the three risk scores tested in this analysis demonstrated a similar pattern of

results: a small increase in the risk of stroke or death within 30 days of the procedure

as the score increased, a lower observed risk of an event in ICSS than predicted, and

the majority of events occurring in those groups of patients predicted to be at lower

risk. None of the scores tested were sufficiently discriminating to be able to

demonstrate a statistically significant difference in risk between groups of patients with

different scores and all showed poor sensitivity and specificity.

15.4.2 Limitations

The ability to accurately test many existing published risk scores was limited by the

data collected at baseline in ICSS, and the type of patients enrolled in the study. The

ability to detect significant differences in risk between groups predicted to be at low or

high risk was limited by the relative safety of CEA in ICSS and therefore the low

number of outcome events.

15.4.3 Discussion

“Complications” following any surgical procedure are common throughout the world,

occurring in up to 7% of those undergoing surgery even after specific interventions

designed to reduce the risk of adverse outcome [93]. CEA may be different to some

other types of major surgery due to the higher risk of stroke. Therefore there is a need

for unique risk scores to identify the patient at high risk during revascularization. To be

useful to clinicians, clinical risk scores should be effective, accurate and generalizable

to other patient populations [166] [167].

The risk models analysed in this chapter did not satisfactorily discriminate between

high- and low-risk groups of patients, and indeed excluding patients in higher risk

groups for undergoing surgery would not have prevented the majority of periprocedural

events.

Other reasons that these models may not have performed so well include differences

between the inclusion and exclusion criteria in the studies from which they are derived

as compared to the criteria in ICSS, the influence of unmeasured factors such as

operator experience or case volume [168], the type of hospital the surgery is carried

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out in [165], and the influence of vascular features not routinely recorded at baseline in

ICSS, such as ulcerated plaque or fresh thrombus in the carotid artery, which may

double the risk of stroke after CEA [158]. There is also a need to update risk models as

the higher risks observed in original trials as compared with new trials means that the

models tested all over-estimate risk, a common finding in prediction models [169].

Other authors have examined the implications of applying the Rothwell score to a

population of patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis in a single unit. Their results

show a similar distribution of risk scores, with patients at lower predicted surgical risk

(score 0 or 1) making up the majority of those undergoing surgery [170]. However, the

rate of major stroke or death within 31 days of surgery in this study was only 0.75%,

and the authors conclude that excluding high-risk patients from surgery in this series

would have exposed the patients to a high risk of stroke on medical therapy alone with

no reduction in the risk of a major event in the group undergoing surgery.

As demonstrated in the European Carotid Surgery Trial, the factors that determine of

the risk of surgery may well be different from those that determine the risk of stroke

without treatment [98], and therefore patients should not be excluded from surgery

because of a high predicted risk of CEA without taking into consideration the risk of

stroke on secondary prevention medications alone [169]. In addition, the decision to

operate or not is made more complex by the availability of CAS, which may in turn

have different risk factors for periprocedural stroke or death as discussed in Chapter

17. Authors drawing on data from the European trials of stenting vs surgery for

symptomatic carotid stenosis have developed a clinical rule based on the patient’s sex,

age, contralateral carotid occlusion and the presence of restenosis (the “SCAR” rule

[171]) to address this issue and enable practitioners to choose between the two

revascularization procedures in patients where revascularization is the preferred

treatment option.

15.4.4 Conclusions

The observed risk of CEA in ICSS was acceptably low, and only 3.4% of patients

suffered stroke or death within 30 days of the procedure. In each of the three risk

scores evaluated, increasing score was associated with an increasing observed risk of

the outcome, although this association did not reach statistical significance in any of

the scores tested. The ability of the scores to discriminate between patients at low and

high risk was poor as demonstrated by the area under the receiver operator curve

measurements. Most events in ICSS occurred in groups of patients predicted to be at

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low risk, and thus the overall performance of these scores was unsatisfactory, and

routine use of the scores to predict operative risk is not supported.

Patient risk factor profiles and the nature of surgical care for endarterectomy have

changed since the landmark NASCET and ECST trials, and influence of risk factors for

surgical complications from older studies may have diminished. The availability of non-

invasive detailed plaque imaging raises the possibility of developing modern and

better-performing risk scores for the procedural risk of CEA or the risk of stroke on

medical therapy alone, drawing on data from large-scale studies or ongoing trials

randomizing patients to CEA such as ECST-2 [172], SPACE-2 [173] and ACST-2 [174].

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16. Risk factors for, and impact of, cranial nerve palsy and

haematoma following carotid endarterectomy

Introduction 16.1

The results of landmark trials of carotid surgery versus medical therapy, NASCET

[175], ECST [36] and the Veterans’ Affairs Trial [39] provided evidence that carotid

endarterectomy for symptomatic atherosclerotic carotid stenosis greater than 50%

provided a better long-term reduction in the risk of recurrent ipsilateral stroke than

medical therapy. Subsequent trials of CEA vs carotid stenting have suggested that, in

the short-term at least, surgery remains the safest treatment for carotid stenosis, with

CAS carrying a higher risk of any stroke, myocardial infarction or death within 30 days

of the procedure in meta-analysis (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.80) [176]. However, the

primary endpoints of these trials and analyses do not contain outcomes that specifically

relate to the additional hazards of a surgical incision in the neck – namely cranial nerve

palsy (CNP) and haematoma.

Carotid stenting developed as an alternative to CEA in part to avoid these hazards of a

surgical incision. The higher procedural risk associated with CAS in ICSS was mainly

due to an excess of non-disabling stroke [82], and this disadvantage could be balanced

by an increased incidence of cranial nerve palsy in the surgical group.

CNP and haematoma are less extensively studied, but have long been recognised as

complications of surgery [47], and these “minor outcomes” have been associated with

an increased risk of major outcomes following surgery such as stroke or death [177].

Haematoma has been associated with an increased time spent in critical care following

surgery [178]. Published case series have highlighted frequently-affected cranial

nerves which include facial, vagal, hypoglossal and accessory [47] [48] [49] [50], and

there is a potential for these injuries to cause significant postoperative disability.

In this chapter the incidence and severity of CNP and haematoma in ICSS are

examined to determine whether these complications merit consideration in the

selection of revascularization procedure. Risk factors for their development are

analysed.

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Methods 16.2

The ICSS trial protocol is summarized in Chapter 13 and presented in full in Appendix

IV. As reported in Chapter 14, the type of anaesthetic or surgical technique for CEA

were not specified in the trial protocol, but all patients were required to receive medical

therapy for secondary prevention of stroke as appropriate. A technical case report form

was completed for each endarterectomy procedure in ICSS and the occurrence of CNP

or haematoma was reported by investigators. CNP was defined as “weakness or

sensory impairment in the distribution of one of the cranial nerves attributed to

treatment”. Each patient was re-assessed at their one-month follow-up appointment by

a neurologist or investigator with an interest in stroke. CNPs were adjudicated at the

trial office based on the best available clinical evidence, and deemed “disabling” if the

patient’s modified Rankin Score (mRS) increased to 3 or more at 30 days post-

procedure where that increase was thought due to CNP. A questionnaire requesting

additional information about the clinical impact of an event and whether or not

symptoms eventually resolved (Appendix II) was sent to centres reporting CNP.

Haematoma was defined as “bleeding attributed to the treatment of carotid narrowing”.

Severe haematoma was defined as a haematoma “requiring new surgery, transfusion

or prolonging hospital stay”.

16.2.1 Statistical methods

The data were analysed per-protocol, including only those patients in ICSS in whom

the allocated CEA procedure was initiated. A procedure was deemed to have been

initiated if local or general anaesthesia was administered prior to commencement of

surgery. Patients who crossed-over to CAS or medical treatment were excluded. Risk

factors for CNP and haematoma were examined sequentially in a univariable binomial

regression analysis using maximum likelihood estimation. The risk ratio for each factor

is given with corresponding 95% confidence interval. Wald tests were used for

continuous and binary predictors, with an overall likelihood ratio test for categorical

predictors of more than two levels. A multivariable model was developed using a

forward stepwise-based approach with a significance level of 0.1 for predictors in

univariable analysis accepted for inclusion in the multivariable model. Patients with

missing data were excluded from each relevant analysis. Analyses were performed

using Stata (Stata Corp. 2011. Stata Statistical Software: Release 12. College Station,

TX, USA: Stata Corp LP).

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Results – cranial nerve palsy 16.3

858 patients in ICSS were randomized to CEA, of whom 821 had their allocated

procedure initiated (95.7%). 4/821 patients (0.5%) died after initiation of the procedure

but before 30-day follow-up. 45/821 (5.5%) patients were reported to have developed

CNP between initiation of the procedure and 30-day follow-up. The results of an

adjudication of which cranial nerves are affected are presented in Table 9. The facial

nerve was involved in 23 patients, vagus nerve in 6, hypoglossal in 13,

glossopharyngeal in 4, accessory in 1 and trigeminal in 1. The nerve affected was

undetermined in two patients. In five patients more than one cranial nerve was

affected. It was not possible to determine the nerve affected in two patients.

One patient was judged to have disabling CNP at 30-day follow-up due to

glossopharyngeal nerve palsy. This caused impairment of swallowing with subsequent

need for naso-gastric feeding.

In those patients in whom CNP resolution was confirmed (n=20), the median estimated

duration of symptoms was 30 days (minimum 2 days, maximum 520 days). Permanent

injury (i.e. without resolution of symptoms by the end of their follow-up in the trial) was

reported in two patients who were followed-up over 6.4 and 3.1 years respectively.

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Table 9. Summary of cranial nerve palsies following endarterectomy in ICSS

Cranial nerve Number of

postoperative

CNPs (n=50 in 45

patients)

Number of

disabling

CNPs (mRs≥3

at 1 month

due to CNP)

Number of

CNPs confirmed

persisting after

30 days

Facial 23 0 4

Hypoglossal 13 0 2

Vagus 6 0 4

Accessory 1 0 0

Glossopharyngeal 4 1 1

Trigeminal 1 0 0

Undetermined 2 0 0

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The results of univariable regression analysis to determine risk factors for the

development of CNP within 30 days of the procedure are presented in Figure 11 below.

The risk of CNP was increased in female patients (RR 1.90, 95% CI 1.08 to 3.36,

p=0.03) and decreased in those with a high degree of contralateral carotid artery

stenosis. Other demographic factors did not predict the risk of CNP. Technical factors,

including the type of arterial reconstruction (standard closure, patch closure, eversion

endarterectomy or vein interposition), type of anaesthesia or shunt use, were not

significant predictors of risk.

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Figure 11. Univariable predictors of the risk of cranial nerve palsy within 30 days of

endarterectomy in 821 ICSS per-protocol participants in whom the procedure

was initiated

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Figure 11 continued

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Figure 11 continued

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The result of multivariable analysis of independent predictors of the risk of CNP is

given in one possible model in Table 10 below. In this model, independent predictors of

risk were cardiac failure (RR 2.66, 95% CI 1.11 to 6.40, p=0.03), female sex (RR 1.80,

95% CI 1.02 to 3.20, p=0.04), the degree of contralateral carotid artery stenosis and a

time of greater than 14 days from randomization in the trial to surgery (RR 3.33, 95%

CI 1.05 to 10.57, p=0.04).

The risk of cranial nerve palsy in the stenting group in ICSS was 1/828 (0.12%), and on

adjudication this complication was attributed to a second procedure (CEA) carried out

before 30-day follow-up.

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Table 10. Independent predictors of risk of cranial nerve palsy within 30 days of

endarterectomy in 805* ICSS per-protocol participants in whom the procedure

was initiated

Variable Adjusted Risk Ratio (95% CI) Adjusted p-value

Cardiac failure 2.66 (1.11 to 6.40) p=0.03

Female sex 1.80 (1.02 to 3.20) p=0.04

Time from randomization

to treatment >14 days

3.33 (1.05 to 10.57) p=0.04

Degree of

contralateral stenosis

0-50%

50-69%

>70%

1.00

1.18 (0.62 to 2.27)

0.13 (0.02 to 0.91)

Overall p<0.01

p=0.62

p=0.04

* patients with missing data excluded from this analysis

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Results – haematoma 16.4

50/828 (6.1%) patients in the CEA arm of ICSS who had their procedure initiated

developed haematoma. 28/828 (3.4%) patients had severe haematoma, requiring

transfusion, re-operation or prolonging hospital stay. 12 of those 50 patients who

suffered haematoma also developed CNP, and there was a significant association

between these complications (p<0.01, Fisher’s exact test).

The results of univariable analysis of factors predicting the risk of haematoma within 30

days of CEA are presented in Table 11 below. Those factors that increased the risk of

haematoma were preoperative prescription of anticoagulant medication (RR 1.83, 95%

CI 1.04 to 3.23, p=0.04), atrial fibrillation (RR 2.29, 95% CI 1.08 to 4.85, p=0.03),

previous cardiac bypass graft surgery (RR 2.46, 95% CI 1.37 to 4.42, p<0.01) and the

duration of arterial clamping (RR per each 20 minutes 1.13, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.24,

p<0.01). Factors that decreased the risk of haematoma were shunt use (RR 0.54, 95%

CI 0.29 to 0.99, p=0.05), the prescription of an antiplatelet agent pre-procedure (RR

0.44, 95% CI 0.21 to 0.93, p=0.03) and each increase in 1mmol/l of cholesterol at

baseline (RR 0.69, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.88, p<0.01). Other demographic and technical

factors were not statistically significant predictors of the risk of haematoma.

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Table 11. Univariable predictors of risk of haematoma within 30 days of endarterectomy in 821 ICSS per-protocol participants in whom the

procedure was initiated

Variable Category 30-day risk of haematoma (%) Risk Ratio (95% CI) P-value

Type of reconstruction Standard 9.3 1 0.26

Eversion 8.2 0.87 (0.31 to 2.48)

Patch 5.2 0.56 (0.31 to 1.02)

Vein interposition 0 N/A

Shunt use No 7.5 1 0.05

Yes 4.0 0.54 (0.29 to 0.99)

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Table 11 continued

Variable Category 30-day risk of haematoma (%) Risk Ratio (95% CI) P-value

Type of anaesthesia GA or LA/GA combined 6.5 1 0.69

LA alone 5.6 0.86 (0.41 to 1.79)

Antiplatelet agent pre-procedure No 13.5 1 0.03

Yes 5.9 0.44 (0.21 to 0.93)

Two or more antiplatelet agents pre-procedure No 6.0 1 0.50

Yes 7.3 1.21 (0.69 to 2.11)

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Table 11 continued

Variable Category 30-day risk of haematoma (%) Risk Ratio (95% CI) P-value

Anticoagulant pre-procedure No 5.5 1 0.04

Yes 10.1 1.83 (1.04 to 3.23)

Antiplatelet agent post-procedure No 9.2 1 0.26

Yes 6.1 0.66 (0.32 to 1.36)

Anticoagulant post-procedure No 5.6 1 0.11

Yes 8.8 1.58 (0.91 to 2.76)

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Table 11 continued

Variable Category 30-day risk of haematoma (%) Risk Ratio (95% CI) P-value

Sex Male 5.2 1 0.10

Female 8.2 1.59 (0.92 to 2.74)

Age <70 years 6.1 1 0.96

≥70 years 6.0 0.99 (0.58 to 1.69)

Treated hypertension No 5.0 1 0.36

Yes 6.6 1.34 (0.71 to 2.52)

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Table 11 continued

Variable Category 30-day risk of haematoma (%) Risk Ratio (95% CI) P-value

Cardiac failure No 6.1 1 0.85

Yes 6.8 1.12 (0.36 to 3.45)

Angina No 6.1 1 0.77

Yes 6.9 1.15 (0.47 to 2.79)

Previous MI No 5.4 1 0.07

Yes 9.3 1.72 (0.95 to 3.11)

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Table 11 continued

Variable Category 30-day risk of haematoma (%) Risk Ratio (95% CI) P-value

Previous CABG No 5.1 1 <0.01

Yes 12.6 2.46 (1.37 to 4.42)

Atrial fibrillation No 5.7 1 0.03

Yes 13.0 2.29 (1.08 to 4.85)

Other cardioembolic source of embolus No 6.1 1 0.99

Yes 6.3 1.02 (0.15 to 6.92)

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Table 11 continued

Variable Category 30-day risk of haematoma (%) Risk Ratio (95% CI) P-value

Diabetes No 6.3 1 0.81

Yes 5.7 0.92 (0.47 to 1.80)

Peripheral arterial disease No 6.3 1 0.68

Yes 5.3 0.85 (0.39 to 1.85)

Smoking status Never smoked 4.1 1 0.23

Former smoker 7.4 1.82 (0.88 to 3.75)

Current smoker 5.8 1.42 (0.60 to 3.34)

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Table 11 continued

Variable Category 30-day risk of haematoma (%) Risk Ratio (95% CI) P-value

Treated hyperlipidaemia No 6.5 1 0.73

Yes 5.9 0.91 (0.52 to 1.59)

Degree of stenosis in treated artery 50 – 69% 6.9 1 0.75

70 – 99% 6.0 0.87 (0.36 to 2.11)

Degree of stenosis in contralateral artery 0 to 49% 6.1 1 0.39

50 to 69% 7.4 1.20 (0.61 to 2.38)

70 to 99% 2.9 0.47 (0.15 to 1.51)

Occluded 8.6 1.40 (0.45 to 4.34)

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Table 11 continued

Variable Category 30-day risk of haematoma (%) Risk Ratio (95% CI) P-value

Nature of ipsilateral index event Stroke 5 1 0.32

Retinal stroke 4.5 0.91 (0.13 to 6.51)

TIA 6.2 1.23 (0.65 to 2.33)

Amaurosis fugax 9.7 1.94 (0.98 to 3.85)

Multiple ipsilateral events prior to randomization No 5.5 1 0.33

Yes 7.1 1.31 (0.76 to 2.25)

Prior ipsilateral stroke No 5.8 1 0.45

Yes 7.8 1.33 (0.64 to 2.75)

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Table 11 continued

Variable Category 30-day risk of haematoma (%) Risk Ratio (95% CI) P-value

Baseline Rankin score 0 6.5 1 0.42

1 6.2 0.95 (0.48 to 1.90)

2 7.1 1.09 (0.57 to 2.07)

3 1.4 0.21 (0.03 to 1.52)

4 5.9 0.90 (0.13 to 6.33)

5 0 N/A

Side of procedure Left 5.9 1 0.77

Right 6.3 1.08 (0.63 to 1.86)

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Table 11 continued

Variable Category 30-day risk of haematoma (%) Risk Ratio (95% CI) P-value

Time from randomization to treatment ≤14 days 4.6 1 0.41

>14 days 6.4 1.39 (0.64 to 3.03)

Clamping time (Per 20 minutes of clamp applied) 6.9 1.13 (1.04 to 1.24) <0.01

Duration of surgery (Per 20 minutes of operation length) 6.4 0.97 (0.86 to 1.10) 0.66

Age (Per 5 years of age) 6.1 1.02 (0.88 to 1.18) 0.84

Baseline systolic blood pressure (Per 10mmHg of blood pressure) 6.3 1.08 (0.98 to 1.21) 0.13

Baseline diastolic blood pressure (Per 10mmHg of blood pressure) 6.2 0.92 (0.74 to 1.14) 0.45

Baseline cholesterol (Per each mmol/l total cholesterol) 6.3 0.69 (0.55 to 0.88) <0.01

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The results of multivariable analysis of predictors of the risk of haematoma are

presented in Table 12 which illustrates one possible model. Independent predictors of

increased risk were female sex (RR 2.03, 95% CI 1.13 to 3.62, p=0.02), atrial fibrillation

(RR 2.38, 95% CI 1.07 to 5.27, p=0.03) and the prescription of an anticoagulant drug

pre-procedure (RR 1.86, 95% CI 1.01 to 3.42, p=0.05). Independent factors that

decreased the risk were shunt use (RR 0.40, 95% CI 0.21 to 0.80, p<0.01) and

baseline cholesterol level (RR 0.68 per 1mmol/l increase, 95% CI 0.54 to 0.86,

p<0.01).

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Table 12. Independent predictors of the risk of haematoma within 30 days of endarterectomy in 639 ICSS per-protocol participants in whom the

procedure was initiated

Variable Risk Ratio (95% CI) Adjusted p-value

Anticoagulant pre-procedure 1.86 (1.01 to 3.42) 0.05

Shunt use 0.40 (0.21 to 0.80) <0.01

Cholesterol (per each mmol/l) 0.68 (0.54 to 0.86) <0.01

Female 2.03 (1.13 to 3.62) 0.02

Atrial fibrillation 2.38 (1.07 to 5.27) 0.03

* patients with missing data excluded from this analysis

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Results – impact of adding CNP to ICSS trial primary outcomes 16.5

Table 13 below details the impact of adding cranial nerve palsy to the primary and

secondary outcomes of ICSS in interim analysis [82]. For the combined outcome of

stroke, MI, death or cranial nerve palsy within 30 days of CEA there was no significant

difference in risk between CAS and CEA groups (RR 0.81, 95% CI 0.59 to 1.12,

p=0.20). For the combined outcome of disabling stroke, disabling CNP or death only

there was also no significant difference in risk (RR 1.41, 95% CI 0.79 to 2.51, p=0.24).

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Table 13. Composite outcome events within 30 days of CEA versus CAS in ICSS

Endpoint

(within 30 days of the procedure)

CAS (n=828)

Events (%)

CEA (n=821)

Events (%)

Risk ratio

(95% CI)

Risk difference

(95% CI)

P-value

(Chi-squared)

Stroke, MI or death 61 (7.4%) 33 (4.0%) 1.83 (1.21, 2.77) 3.3% (1.1, 5.6) <0.01

Stroke, MI, death or CNP 62 (7.5%) 76 (9.3%) 0.81 (0.59, 1.12) -1.8% (-4.4, 0.9) 0.20

Disabling stroke or death 26 (3.1%) 18 (2.2%) 1.43 (0.79, 2.59) 0.9% (-0.6, 2.5) 0.23

Disabling stroke, disabling CNP or

death

27 (3.3%) 19 (2.3%) 1.41 (0.79, 2.51)

0.9% (-0.6, 2.5) 0.24

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Results – influence of sex on combined outcomes 16.6

Table 14 below summarises the findings of both Chapter 14 and this chapter

regarding the influence of sex on the outcomes of CNP, haematoma, or stroke,

MI or death. Women had a statistically significantly higher risk of each of these

outcomes in the surgical arm of ICSS. When these outcomes were combined, the

risk of any surgical complication (i.e. CNP, haematoma, stroke, MI or death) in

the endarterectomy arm of ICSS was considerably higher in women (19.7%)

compared with men (10.9%, p<0.01).

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Table 14. Results of univariable binomial regression analyses of female vs male in

821 per-protocol CEA patients in whom the allocated procedure was initiated

30-day outcome Number events / Number patients (%) Risk Ratio (95%

CI), p-value

Females Males

CNP 20/243 (8.2%) 25/578 (4.3%) 1.90 (1.08, 3.36),

p=0.03

Haematoma 20/243 (8.2%) 30/578 (5.2%) 1.59 (0.92, 2.74),

p=0.10

Stroke, MI or death 15/243 (6.2%) 18/578 (3.1%) 1.98 (1.02, 3.87),

p=0.05

CNP, haematoma,

stroke, MI or death

48/243 (19.7%) 63/578 (10.9%) 1.81 (1.28, 2.56),

p<0.01

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Discussion and conclusion 16.7

16.7.1 Summary

5.5% of ICSS patients who were allocated to carotid endarterectomy, and in whom the

procedure was initiated, developed CNP. 6.1% developed haematoma within 30 days.

There was a statistically significant association between the two outcomes. The most

commonly-affected nerves were facial and hypoglossal, although only one CNP was

classified as disabling at 30 days. Independent predictors that increased of the risk of

cranial nerve palsy were cardiac failure, female sex, the degree of contralateral carotid

stenosis and a time between randomization and surgery of >14 days. The risk of

haematoma was raised in female patients, those with atrial fibrillation and those taking

anticoagulant medications pre-procedure.

16.7.2 Discussion - cranial nerve palsy

The European Carotid Surgery Trial found a motor CNP risk of 5.1% and a long-term

CNP risk of 0.5% at 4 months [179]. Similarly, the North American Symptomatic

Carotid Endarterectomy Trial found a postoperative risk of CNP of 8.6%, the majority of

which were mild in severity [175]. The finding of a 5.5% risk of CNP in ICSS, the 5.6%

risk of CNP in 6878 patients included in the Vascular Study Group of New England

study [180] and recent results from CREST showing a CNP risk of 4.6%, four-fifths of

which resolved within 1 year [181], suggests that the risk of CNP following CEA has

remained relatively constant over time. However, reassuringly, the risk of disabling

CNP is small – around 1 in 1000 operations. The symptoms of CNP may persist for

several weeks, but half of patients in whom the lesion resolves will experience an

improvement within 30 days.

The higher risk in female patients has not previously been described, and this finding is

worth confirming in other patient groups. It may be that surgical anatomy is more

challenging in female patients, who have a smaller diameter of carotid artery on

average [142], leading to inadvertent trauma to the cranial nerves running adjacent.

Female patients were also at risk of haematoma, perhaps for the same reason.

16.7.3 Discussion - haematoma

Female sex, anticoagulants and atrial fibrillation were independent risk factors for the

development of neck haematoma in this patient population. Although less well-studied

than cranial nerve palsy and major outcomes, previously-identified causes of

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haematoma following CEA have included postoperative hypertension, anticoagulants

and antiplatelet agents [182] [183] (which might cause increased bleeding), as well as

inadequate surgical drainage [184]. Independent risk factors in another study were

found to be non-reversal of heparin, intraoperative hypotension and carotid shunt

placement [178].

A risk of haematoma in ICSS of 6.1% is similar to the risk of “wound complications”

(haematoma and infection) of 6.0% seen in a large multicentre case series of 1998

patients undergoing CEA [51], and a severe haematoma risk of 3.4% is similar to the

reported risk of requiring re-exploration in patients undergoing CEA while taking

antiplatelet medication of 3.6% [52].

Antiplatelet agents prevent recurrent stroke in patients with symptomatic carotid

stenosis [21] [185] [186] [187]. However, there is concern that clopidogrel, or

clopidogrel in combination with aspirin increases the risk of haematoma following

surgery [52]. Importantly, in ICSS there was no evidence that dual antiplatelet therapy

increased the risk of haematoma. Indeed, the clinical practise of most UK surgeons is

to continue single or dual antiplatelet therapy in the perioperative period where patients

are already taking these medications [188].

The association between neck haematoma and preoperative anticoagulation is not

unexpected, but our results reinforce the importance of careful attention to haemostasis

before closure of the wound.

16.7.4 Discussion – adding CNP to composite trial outcomes

Some systematic reviews have included CNP in a composite outcome of death or

neurological complications up to 30 days after treatment [176]. In ICSS, the total

number of events in the composite outcome of any stroke, myocardial infarction or

death was greater after CEA compared with CAS, the numbers in the composite

outcome of disabling stroke, disabling CNP or death were greater after CAS compared

with CEA, but neither difference was statistically significant. Thus it is unlikely to be

useful to include CNP in the composite endpoints of future trials, and it would not be

appropriate exclude patients from CEA because of an increased risk of CNP as

compared with CAS.

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16.7.5 Discussion – the influence of sex on composite trial outcomes

Women were at higher risk of any surgical complication within 30 days of CEA in ICSS.

Indeed, the combined risk of CNP, haematoma, stroke, MI or death reached nearly

20%. While this finding may inform discussions with patients about procedural risk, it

should be remembered that female sex was not an independent predictor of the risk of

a major complication (stroke, MI or death) and that the impact of CNP appears to be

limited in duration and severity. Nonetheless, outcome data captured in clinical trials

may underestimate the quality of life impact of, for example, permanent facial nerve

palsy.

16.7.6 Limitations

Baseline and technical information regarding the procedure was missing for some

patients, limiting the ability to include them in multivariable modelling. Information about

the clinical effects and duration of CNP was limited in some patients. Multiple

comparisons in the univariable analysis raise the possibility of type 1 (false positive)

error, and no statistical correction was made for the number of tests carried out.

Patients were not randomized to particular techniques or medication regimens, and it is

likely that unmeasured confounders such as surgical expertise also influence the risk of

CNP or haematoma.

16.7.7 Conclusion

Long-term disability due to cranial nerve palsy following carotid endarterectomy

appears to be rare. As a result of this finding, CNP is unlikely to be included in

composite endpoints of future trials involving carotid surgery. However, CNP remains

common following CEA and is associated with haematoma. The results presented here

should give surgeons confidence to reassure patients that long-term disability due to

cranial nerve palsy following carotid endarterectomy is rare, to continue antiplatelet

therapy around the time of surgery, and to carefully consider the risk-benefit ratio for

revascularization in female patients.

Measurement of quality of life after CNP or haematoma might reveal that apparently

“minor” clinical outcomes have disproportionate effects on the patient’s well-being, and

future studies should focus on the quality of life impact of these complications.

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17. Risk factors for stroke, myocardial infarction or death

following carotid stenting

Introduction 17.1

Carotid artery stenting was developed as a less-invasive alternative to carotid

endarterectomy for the prevention of TIA or stroke in patients with atheromatous

carotid stenosis. However, in interim analysis of the International Carotid Stenting

Study the risk of stroke, myocardial infarction or death within 30 days of

revascularization was higher in those patients who received their allocated CAS

procedure than in those who received their allocated CEA procedure (7.4% vs 4.0%,

p<0.01) [82].

Endovascular revascularization is a complex procedure requiring attention to pre-

procedure medication, haemodynamic control, stent design and optimal adjuvant

medical therapy [153]. Optimal stenting technique, patient selection and processes of

care for CAS have yet to be determined. For example, the use of cerebral protection

devices has become more common in recent years in the UK [97], but there is

conflicting evidence of their efficacy.

This analysis examines patients allocated to CAS in ICSS to determine whether there

are specific techniques, processes of care or baseline patient characteristics that are

associated with stroke, MI or death within 30 days of the procedure.

Methods 17.2

17.2.1 The stenting procedure

The trial protocol and inclusion/exclusion criteria for ICSS are summarised in Chapter

13 and presented in full in Appendix IV. Patients with more than 50% recently-

symptomatic carotid stenosis were eligible for randomization in the study if they were

felt suitable to undergo either CEA or CAS. Patients were excluded from enrolment in

the trial if the stenosis was due to non-atheromatous disease, if cardiac bypass was

planned within 1 month of the carotid procedure, or if there was previous stenting or

surgery on the symptomatic artery. Additionally, patients were specifically excluded

from CAS if their vascular anatomy was “unfavourable” – if there was vessel tortuosity

proximal or distal to the stenosis, visible thrombus, proximal CCA disease or “pseudo-

occlusion” (99% or more stenosis but with normal distal runoff on angiography).

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Centres enrolling patients into ICSS were required to provide evidence that CAS

interventionists were sufficiently experienced in the procedure, having performed a

minimum of 50 stenting procedures and at least 10 of those in the carotid territory with

an acceptable complication rate. More inexperienced interventionists joined the trial in

probationary centres where procedures were supervised by a proctor until such time as

the required level of competency was achieved.

CAS in ICSS was performed in accordance with trial protocol: aspirin and clopidogrel

prior to the procedure was recommended, as was the use of a CPD whenever the

interventionist thought one could be safely deployed. CPDs and stents used at each

centre were approved by the ICSS steering committee and were CE-marked. The

administration of heparin during the procedure was mandatory. A CAS technical data

form was returned to the trial office by interventionists giving details of the equipment

and medications used in the procedure.

17.2.2 Outcome events

The combined endpoint of stroke, MI or death within 30 days of CAS is examined in

this analysis, and was reported to the trial office by investigators at each centre. For

each of these outcomes, confirmatory evidence was required (brain scan in the case of

stroke, ECG and / or cardiac enzyme levels for MI, death certificate and autopsy report

if available for death). Stroke was defined as “an acute disturbance of focal

neurological function with symptoms lasting more than 24 hours resulting from

intracranial vascular disturbance”. Two out of the three following criteria were required

for a diagnosis of MI – a clinical history of chest discomfort lasting more than 30

minutes, the development of specific ECG abnormalities consistent with MI or cardiac

enzyme levels more than twice the upper limit of the reference range. Two

investigators from the trial office adjudicated each event and then it was sent to a third,

independent, clinician for adjudication. Disagreements between investigators were

resolved by consensus after a second independent review.

17.2.3 Statistical analysis

A per-protocol analysis, including only those patients randomized to CAS in ICSS in

whom the stenting procedure was initiated, is presented in this chapter. Stenting was

deemed initiated if the patient received local or general anaesthesia prior to the

procedure. Patients crossing over to surgery or best medical therapy were therefore

excluded. Risk factors for stroke, MI or death within 30 days of the CAS procedure

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were investigated sequentially in a binomial regression model. Patients with missing

data were excluded from each relevant analysis. The effect of cerebral protection type

and stent type could only be investigated in patients in whom these devices were

deployed, and the effect of post-stent dilation was examined only in those patients in

whom a stent was deployed. A multivariable model was developed using a forward

stepwise approach including variables potentially available for all CAS patients,

therefore excluding CPD type, stent type and post-dilation. A p-value of <0.05 was

considered “significant” in all analyses. Analyses were performed with Stata

(StataCorp. 2011. Stata Statistical Software: Release 12. College Station, TX:

StataCorp LP).

Results 17.3

17.3.1 Patient and procedure characteristics

1713 patients were randomized in ICSS, of whom 853 were allocated to CAS. In this

group, 828 procedures were initiated. Baseline characteristics of included patients are

presented in Figure 12 below. In summary, 70.4% of patients were male, and 53.5% of

patients were over the median age of 70 years. A stent was deployed in 752/816

(92.2%) procedures for which data were available. 367/816 (48.8%) of these

procedures used an open-cell design of stent, 371/816 (49.3%) used a closed-cell

stent. A CPD was deployed in 585/828 (70.6%) procedures, of which the majority

(n=464) were distal filter-type devices. 71.7% of patients were taking the combination

of aspirin and clopidogrel prior to the procedure.

17.3.2 Timing and cause of events

61/828 (7.4%) patients undergoing CAS suffered stroke, MI or death within 30 days of

the procedure. The events reported in these patients were 58 strokes, three myocardial

infarctions and one death unrelated to stroke or MI. One patient with stroke suffered a

subsequent (fatal) MI. 44/61 (72.1%) events occurred on the day of the procedure itself

(day 0), of which 21 were adjudicated to have occurred during the procedure. 21

occurred between the end of the procedure and day 1. In one patient a retinal infarct

was noted during follow-up and attributed to the procedure on day 0, but the timing in

relation to CAS was uncertain. In one further patient there was insufficient information

to determine the timing of the event.

Table 15 below summarizes the immediate cause or timing of the event, as reported by

the interventionist, in the 21 patients whose event was adjudicated to have occurred

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during the procedure itself. The majority of these events (12/21) were precipitated by

the insertion, retrieval or use of endovascular equipment around the site of the lesion

itself.

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Table 15. Reported immediate cause or timing of event in patients undergoing

CAS in ICSS

Precipitant Number of events (n=21)

Uncertain / undetermined 6

Post-dilation 5

Stent deployment 4

CPD manipulation 3

Intra-operative hypotension 2

Catheter angiography 1

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17.3.3 Demographic and technical risk factors for stroke, MI or death within 30

days of the procedure

The results of univariable analysis of the influence of baseline demographic and

technical risk factors on the risk of stroke, MI or death within 30 days of CAS are

presented in Figure 12. The risk of the combined outcome increased 1.24 times for

each 5 years increase in age (95% CI 1.07 to 1.42, p<0.01). The risk was also

increased in patients with an open-cell carotid stent (RR 1.86, 95% CI 1.09 to 3.19,

p=0.02) and in patients with atrial fibrillation (RR 2.31, 95% CI 1.16 to 4.61, p=0.02).

The risk was lower in those who were current or former smokers at baseline as

compared to those who had never smoked (RR 0.25, 95% CI 0.10 to 0.63 and RR

0.77, 95% CI 0.46 to 1.29 respectively, global p<0.01) and those with amaurosis fugax

as the initial event prompting randomization in the trial as compared with those who

suffered stroke as the index event (RR 0.25, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.80 respectively, global

p<0.01). The risk was also lower in patients undergoing a right-sided procedure (RR

0.54, 95% CI 0.32 to 0.91, p=0.02). Patients in whom a CPD was used had a higher

risk of stroke, MI or death with nearly double the number of events, but this increase

was not statistically significant (RR 1.86, 95% CI 0.98 to 3.52, p=0.06).

Patients treated in centres who enrolled more than 50 patients in ICSS experienced a

lower risk of stroke, death or MI within 30 days of CAS (RR 0.60, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.96,

p=0.04), although the results in provisional centres where procedures were supervised

were not statistically different from those at more experienced centres.

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Figure 12. Univariable predictors of the risk of stroke, myocardial infarction or death

in 828 patients undergoing CAS in whom the procedure was initiated

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Figure 12 continued

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One possible multivariable model investigating the effect of all variables potentially

available for all CAS patients (i.e. excluding those in whom a stent or CPD was not

deployed) is presented in Table 16. Independent predictors of the risk of stroke, MI or

death within 30 days of CAS were increasing age (RR 1.17 per 5 years increase, 95%

CI 1.01 to 1.37, p=0.04) and a right-sided procedure (RR 0.54, 95% CI 0.32 to 0.91,

p=0.02). The risk was significantly lower in patients taking the combination of aspirin

and clopidogrel prior to the procedure, as compared with any other antiplatelet regimen

(RR 0.59, 95% CI 0.36 to 0.98, p=0.04), and higher in those with retinal stroke as the

index event prompting randomization in the trial.

The model was reconstructed in a sensitivity analysis to exclude those patients in

whom a stent was not deployed. In this model, the use of an open-cell stent conferred

higher risk (RR 1.92, 95% CI 1.11 to 3.33, p=0.02).

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Table 16. Independent predictors of risk of stroke, MI or death within 30 days of CAS in 748 ICSS per-protocol participants in whom the

procedure was initiated and for whom complete predictor data are available. Results obtained from multivariable binomial regression.

Variable Adjusted Risk Ratio (95% CI) P-value

Age (per 5 years increase) 1.17 (1.01 to 1.37) 0.04

Smoking status

Never smoked

Ex- smoker

Current smoker

1.00

0.86 (0.52 to 1.43)

0.33 (0.13 to 0.85)

N/A

0.55

0.02

Right-sided procedure 0.54 (0.32 to 0.91) 0.02

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Table 16 continued

Variable Adjusted Risk Ratio (95% CI) P-value

Type of index event pre randomization in

ICSS

Stroke

Retinal Stroke

TIA

Amaurosis Fugax

1.00

2.47 (1.11 to 5.52)

0.99 (0.58 to 1.68)

0.32 (0.10 to 1.02)

N/A

0.03

0.96

0.06

Type of antiplatelet regimen

Any other antiplatelet

Aspirin and clopidogrel in combination

1

0.59 (0.36 to 0.98)

N/A

0.04

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Discussion and conclusion 17.4

17.4.1 Summary

The risk of stroke, myocardial infarction or death within 30 days of carotid stenting in

ICSS was significantly higher in older patients, those undergoing a left-sided

procedure, in non-smokers, in patients who were not taking the recommended

combination of aspirin and clopidogrel and in those with retinal stroke as the index

event prompting randomization on the trial. Restricting the analysis to only those

patients in whom a stent was deployed revealed the use of an open-cell stent design to

be an independent predictor of increased risk compared with a closed-cell design.

17.4.2 Discussion

Evidence is building that CAS is less safe in older patients. Individual patient data

meta-analysis from the three European trials of CAS vs CEA found that although the

risks of stroke or death within 120 days of revascularization was similar between

patients allocated to CAS or CEA under the age of 70 years (5.8% vs 5.7%, RR 1.00,

95% CI 0.68 to 1.47), the risk of these complications with CAS were much higher in

patients 70 years or older (12.0% vs 5.9%, RR 2.04, 95% CI 1.48 to 2.82, interaction

p<0.01) [189]. There was no reduction in the severity of events in older patients. The

CREST study also showed a similar effect of age [84]. Age should therefore be taken

into account when selecting patients for the procedure, and the use of CAS in patients

over 70 years old should be largely reserved for those with a clear indication (e.g.

“hostile” surgical anatomy or post-radiotherapy).

Patients in ICSS in whom an open-cell stent was deployed were at higher risk of

complications, a finding echoed in other studies. A higher rate of ipsilateral stroke or

ipsilateral stroke death was found in patients treated with an open-cell stent in the

SPACE study (OR 2.13, 95% CI 1.07 to 3.76) [190], and similar trends have been

found by other groups [191] [192]. The effect of stent design may be more pronounced

in symptomatic patients because plaque is unstable, ulcerated or recently-complicated

with fresh thrombus which is stabilized by the greater coverage of closed-cell stents

with a smaller open area between cell struts, containing debris generated during

deployment of the stent to the site of the lesion. The structural difference between

open- and closed-cell stents is illustrated in Figure 13 below.

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Figure 13. A scanning electron micrograph of closed-cell stent design before (a)

and after (b) expansion, and an open-cell stent before (c) and after (d)

expansion.

From [193] with kind permission from Lippincott Williams and Wilkins / Wolters Kluwer

Health

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CPDs were developed for use in CAS in the assumption that they would reduce

embolism during stent deployment or lesion dilation. However, it is conceivable that the

passage of the device itself may produce particulate debris, and the deployment of a

filter could damage the distal vessel endothelium such that post-procedure thrombus

may form. The combination of findings in this chapter that many procedural minor

strokes were caused by manipulation of equipment around the site of the lesion itself,

and that certain types of patients were at higher risk of stroke, suggests that perhaps

both the generation of a shower of emboli during stenting and the brain’s ability to

tolerate these may be the clinical mechanism of causation in procedural stroke [194].

A systematic review comparing older case series with results after the introduction of

CPDs appeared to confirm the case for their use [195], but these results could be

improved by changes in patient selection and other developments in CAS technique

over time. The EVA-3S trial issued a clinical alert after randomizing 80 patients when

their finding that the 30-day risk of stroke in patients undergoing unprotected CAS was

four times that of those undergoing protected CAS [63], but the excess strokes in this

group may not have been down to CPD use alone, since only two strokes in those

treated without a CPD occurred on the day of the procedure itself. This analysis found

that CPD use in ICSS did not protect against stroke, MI or death within 30 days of the

procedure. Indeed ICSS patients enrolled in the ICSS-MRI Substudy in centres with a

general policy of CPD use experienced a 2.7-fold higher risk of new ischaemic brain

lesions seen on diffusion-weighted MRI following the procedure than those enrolled in

other centres where CPDs were not routinely used [64].

Two small randomized trials of CAS with and without filter-type CPDs have reported

results. One carried out in the United States showed no reduction in new DWI lesions

post-procedure in the CPD group [196], while the other which enrolled patients in the

UK demonstrated an increase in new ischaemic brain lesions post-procedure and

procedural micro-emboli as detected by transcranial Doppler in the CPD group [197].

The predominant design of CPD used in ICSS was a distal filter type, and newer

systems such as flow reversal devices may be more effective [65]. In the meantime,

the routine use of CPDs for the prevention of procedural stroke cannot be supported by

the results of ICSS and further research on newer devices is required to ensure their

safety and efficacy.

The reduction in 30-day neurological complications in patients taking combination

antiplatelet therapy to cover their CAS procedure has been described before [198], and

reinforces the recommendation that all CAS patients receive aspirin and clopidogrel

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where appropriate to prevent thrombus forming on the metallic stent struts. The finding

that smoking was associated with a lower risk of complications is more difficult to

explain, and has not previously been described. It is therefore possibly a chance

finding, or one due to residual confounding.

It is interesting to contrast findings regarding the possible procedural precipitants of

stroke with findings from the Stenting and Aggressive Medical Management for

Preventing Recurrent Stroke in Intracranial Stenosis (SAMMPRIS) study [199]. This

trial involved potentially more hazardous intracranial artery stenting, but included those

with carotid and vertebral disease. Of 19 periprocedural ischaemic strokes, 12 were

thought to have been caused by perforator artery occlusion and 2 by delayed stent

occlusion. Embolism was only thought to be a contributing event in 5 patients. These

different mechanisms of stroke aetiology perhaps reflect the unique hazards of

intracranial artery stenting as compared with carotid stenting, but the contribution of

embolism to the mechanism of stroke in several patients highlights the extra danger of

stenting in symptomatic patients who may have fresh thrombus at the site of the

stenosis.

17.4.3 Limitations

The technology of carotid stenting is developing rapidly and findings related to the

specific stent types and device types used in ICSS may be superseded as newer

equipment enters common use. In some patients, information regarding baseline risk

factors was unavailable, and these patients were excluded from each relevant analysis.

Some procedures were abandoned before the deployment of a CPD or stent, and

these patients were not included in multivariable modelling which included as many

patients as possible with baseline predictor data. Multiple comparisons have been

made without statistical correction, raising the possibility of a Type I (false positive)

error. This is not a randomized comparison of stenting technique or processes or care,

and it is possible that unmeasured confounders are associated with the risk of stroke,

MI or death within 30 days of CAS. The limited number of outcome events in ICSS

limited the number of variables supported in a multivariable model.

17.4.4 Conclusion

Interventionists selecting patients suitable for CAS should take into account risk factors

for periprocedural stroke, MI or death that include the patient’s age, the side of the

procedure, and the nature of the event prompting intervention. Until such time as

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consistently safe results can be demonstrated in older patients, stenting for those over

the age of 70 should have a clear indication (surgically-inaccessible stenosis, post-

radiotherapy or the patient’s wish to avoid surgery, for example). Those who require

revascularization of the left carotid artery should be aware of a potentially higher

procedural risk – although this of course should be balanced against the risk of stroke

without treatment. The results presented in this chapter favour the use of a closed-cell

stent without routine deployment of a cerebral protection device. They also reinforce

the need for dual antiplatelet cover with aspirin and clopidogrel in all patients.

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18. Vascular anatomical factors influencing the risk of new

ischaemic brain lesions following carotid artery stenting

Introduction 18.1

Patients in the CAS arm of ICSS experienced a higher rate of stroke, MI or death within

30 days of the procedure than patients in the CEA arm, mostly attributable to an

excess of minor stroke [82]. Patients enrolled in the ICSS-MRI Substudy were

examined further with pre- and post-procedure brain scans to determine the number

and volume of new diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) lesions – indicative of ischaemia

or infarction. 50% of patients allocated to CAS in the substudy were discovered to have

developed at least one new ischaemic brain lesion due to the procedure, compared

with just 17% of those allocated to CEA (OR 5.21, 95% CI 2.78 to 9.79, p<0.01) [64].

Lesions were more numerous in patients undergoing CAS, and were also more likely to

occur in cortical and adjacent white matter areas than those in CEA patients [200].

CAS is a technically demanding procedure that requires the passage of equipment

through the vascular tree up to and beyond the atherosclerotic lesion. There is

emerging evidence from the randomized clinical trials of CAS versus CEA that patients

undergoing CAS procedures performed by operators with low annual volumes of cases

may be at higher risk of stroke or death within 30 days of the procedure [126].

A number of vascular anatomical characteristics have been proposed by expert opinion

as contributing to a technically challenging procedure [123] [201]. This analysis

investigates the influence of baseline patient characteristics, procedural technique and

variation in vascular anatomy seen on pre-stenting catheter angiography on the risk of

new DWI brain lesions following CAS in patients enrolled into the ICSS-MRI Substudy.

Methods 18.2

18.2.1 The ICSS-MRI Substudy

The ICSS-MRI Substudy is discussed in Chapter 13 and the full protocol is supplied in

Appendix V. To be eligible for randomization in ICSS patients over 40 years old with

recently-symptomatic carotid stenosis were required to be suitable for revascularization

by either CAS or CEA. Importantly, they were excluded from randomization if they

presented with a stenosis that was known to be unsuitable for stenting due to pseudo-

occlusion (distal collapse of the artery with “string sign” indicating poor runoff from the

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lesion), tortuous vascular anatomy, proximal common carotid artery stenosis or visible

thrombus on vascular imaging. CAS was carried out by accredited interventionists

according to trial protocol described in Appendix IV. CPD use was recommended

whenever the interventionist could “safely deploy” one, but was not mandatory.

Operators were required to use devices approved by the trial steering committee.

Patients who additionally enrolled in the ICSS-MRI Substudy underwent pre-procedure

brain MRI at either 1.5T or 3.0T field strength carried out up to a week before

revascularization. MRI was then repeated post-procedure at one to three days after

CAS and then at one month after CAS. Scan protocols contained diffusion-weighted

imaging (DWI) sequences to identify recent ischaemic brain lesions.

Patients underwent carotid stenting as per the ICSS protocol. This analysis includes

patients allocated to CAS in whom the stenting procedure was initiated and for whom a

baseline or pre-stenting catheter angiogram was available and of sufficient quality to be

analysed.

18.2.2 Analysis of brain and vascular imaging

A “lesion count” for each DWI sequence was obtained by the consensus reading of a

neurologist and neuroradiologist blind to the patient’s identity, the date and the nature

of the scan (e.g. pre- or post-procedural). The location (ipsilateral or contralateral) and

the total volume of lesions were also recorded.

Catheter angiograms showing vascular anatomy before stent insertion were evaluated

initially by one trained reader and then read again by the author to enable inter-rater

reliability to be calculated. Both readers were blind to the patient’s identity and the

selected outcome variable (number of new ischaemic brain lesions on post-procedure

DWI MRI). Standard definitions were agreed between the ICSS-MRI Substudy

investigators prior to the first scans being read. The degree of carotid artery stenosis

was calculated using the formula developed in NASCET [40], being the ratio of the

smallest diameter of the ICA at the level of the lesion divided by the distal ICA diameter

expressed as a percentage. ECA stenosis was measured in the same way, using the

distal ECA diameter. “Ulceration” and “irregularity” of the atherosclerotic plaque was

also defined according to the NASCET investigators’ methods [202], as illustrated in

Figure 14. “Pinhole” stenosis was defined as a luminal diameter too small to accurately

measure but with normal distal run-off in the vessel and no distal collapse. Many digital

copies of catheter angiography in the ICSS-MRI Substudy did not contain calibration

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information, so “lesion length” was defined as the distance between proximal and distal

shoulders of the atherosclerotic lesion where the luminal diameter decreased to 20% of

its maximum expressed as a fraction of the common carotid artery on angiographic

views that most elongated that stenosis [203], as illustrated in Figure 15. A “diseased

CCA” was one that had the appearance of luminal stenosis or irregularity consistent

with atherosclerosis. The contralateral carotid artery was not always imaged in the

sequences available to the readers, so the measurement of contralateral carotid

stenosis provided by trial investigators at the time of the patient’s enrolment in ICSS

was used in the analysis. Images were prepared and analysed using Osirix MD,

(Pixmeo SARL, 2012).

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Figure 14. Determination of smooth (D, E), irregular (C) or ulcerated (A, B)

atheromatous plaque at the carotid bifurcation

From [202] with kind permission from Lippincott Williams & Wilkins / Wolters Kluwer

Health

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Figure 15. Measuring the length of maximal stenosis in three vascular anatomical profiles

CCA = common carotid artery, ICA = internal carotid artery, ECA = external carotid artery

Adapted from [203] under the terms of the Creative Common Attribution License. Original figure ©The Authors.

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18.2.3 Statistical Methods

Each demographic, vascular or anatomical risk factor was investigated sequentially in a

negative binomial regression model, with the number of new DWI brain lesions on post-

procedure scan set as the dependent (outcome) variable. Comparisons between

groups are expressed as an odds ratio with 95% confidence interval, demonstrating

how many times more or less lesions occurred. Factors with statistical significance,

p<0.05, were considered for entry into a multivariable model constructed using a

forward stepwise approach. Patient with missing data were excluded from each

relevant analysis. Post-hoc sensitivity analyses for lesions ipsilateral to the treated

artery only as the outcome variable and for lesion volume as the outcome variable

were carried out in the same manner. Inter-rater reliability was calculated to produce a

kappa (κ) statistic and p-value, interpreted as proposed by Landis and Koch [204]. All

analyses were performed using SPSS version 22.0.0.0 (IBM Corp, 2013).

Results 18.3

18.3.1 Baseline patient characteristics

A total of 127/231 patients randomized in the ICSS-MRI Substudy were allocated to

CAS. Baseline (n=7) or pre-procedural (n=110) catheter angiograms with views

sufficient for analysis were available for 115 patients. The baseline demographic

characteristics and vascular risk factors of the patients included in this analysis are

shown in Table 17. Measured vascular anatomical features are shown in Table 18

below.

The median age of patients in this analysis was 71 years. 70% of patients were male. A

protection device (CPD) was used in 46/115 (40%) procedures, of which 91% were

distal filters and 9% were flow reversal systems. 53% procedures were on the right

carotid artery, 47% on the left.

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Table 17. Demographic and procedural characteristics of 115 patients allocated to

CAS in the ICSS-MRI Substudy for whom adequate pre-procedure catheter

angiography was available

Parameter Number of patients (%) n=115

Right-sided procedure 61 (53%)

Cerebral protection device used 46 (40%)

Age (mean) 70.4 years

Female 34 (30%)

Treated hypertension 77 (67%)

Diabetes (any type) 22 (19%)

Treated hyperlipidaemia 71 (62%)

Current or former smoker 87 (76%)

Coronary heart disease 26 (23%)

Other cardioembolic source of thrombus 7 (6%)

Cardiac failure 3 (3%)

Peripheral arterial disease 21 (18%)

Contralateral carotid occlusion 7 (6%)

Contralateral carotid stenosis 70-99% 23 (20%)

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Table 17 continued

Parameter Number of patients (%) n=115

Contralateral carotid stenosis 50-69% 12 (10%)

Contralateral carotid stenosis <50% (reference

group)

73 (64%)

Baseline mRS=4 2 (2%)

Baseline mRS=3 6 (5%)

Baseline mRS=2 28 (24%)

Baseline mRS=1 29 (25%)

Baseline mRS=0 (reference group) 50 (44%)

Cholesterol (mean) 4.9 mmol/l

Diastolic blood pressure (mean) 83.0 mmHg

Systolic blood pressure (mean) 157.3 mmHg

ARWMC (median) 4

Qualifying event was stroke 49 (43%)

Qualifying event was TIA 41 (36%)

Qualifying event was retinal TIA or retinal stroke 25 (22%)

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Table 18. Vascular anatomical characteristics of 115 patients allocated to CAS in

the ICSS-MRI Substudy for whom adequate pre-procedure catheter

angiography was available

Parameter Value

Carotid artery NASCET degree of stenosis (median) 62.7%

Ratio of maximal stenosis length to CCA diameter (mean) 0.41 times

Angle between common and internal carotid arteries (median) 23.6 degrees

External carotid artery stenosis >50% 6 (5%)

Plaque ulceration 40 (35%)

Pinhole stenosis 2 (2%)

Common carotid artery atheroma 13 (11%)

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18.3.2 Patient, procedural and vascular anatomical risk factors for new

ischaemic brain lesions on the post-procedural scan following CAS

62/115 (50.4%) of patients had at least one new DWI-MRI-positive lesion on their post-

procedure scan. The results of negative binomial regression analysis of the influence of

baseline demographic variables, vascular risk factors and vascular anatomical

characteristics on the number of new DWI-positive lesions on the post-procedure MRI

are summarized in Tables 19 and 20 below.

Factors that increased the risk of new DWI lesions on the post-procedure scan were

increasing age (OR 2.26 for each 10 years increase in age, 95% CI 1.74 to 2.89,

p<0.01), treated hypertension (OR 2.61, 95% CI 1.68 to 4.05, p<0.01), increasing

ARWMC (age-related white matter change score seen on baseline brain imaging) (OR

1.13 for each point increase, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.20, p<0.01) and stroke or TIA as the

qualifying event for enrolment into ICSS as compared with those who experienced a

retinal event (OR 4.30, 95% CI 2.46 to 7.53, p<0.01 for stroke and OR 1.91, 95% CI

1.06 to 3.43, p=0.03 for TIA).

Factors associated with a lower number of new DWI lesions on the post-procedure

scan were being female (OR 0.49, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.76, p<0.01), being a current or

former smoker (OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.76, p<0.01), cardiac failure (OR 0.17, 95%

CI 0.03 to 0.85, p=0.03) and 50-69% contralateral carotid artery stenosis as compared

with <50% contralateral carotid artery stenosis (OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.40, p<0.01).

Patients with a mRS score of 3 at baseline had a lower number of new lesions

compared with patients with no disability scoring 0 (OR 0.20, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.62,

p<0.01). The number of new DWI lesions was lower in patients undergoing right-sided

procedure (OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.38 to 0.85, p<0.01).

The vascular anatomical variables measured for this analysis – the degree of ipsilateral

carotid stenosis, the length of maximum stenosis, the CCA/ICA angle, plaque

ulceration, the presence of CCA atheroma or the presence of “pinhole” stenosis did not

significantly influence the number of new lesions.

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Table 19. Univariable demographic and procedural predictors of new DWI-MRI

lesions following CAS in 115 patients in the ICSS-MRI Substudy for whom

adequate pre-procedure catheter angiography was available

Parameter p-

value

Odds Ratio

(OR)

95% confidence interval

for OR

Lower Upper

Right-sided stenosis <0.01 0.57 0.38 0.85

Cerebral protection device used 0.22 1.30 0.83 1.88

Age (per 10-year increase) <0.01 2.26 1.74 2.89

Female <0.01 0.49 0.31 0.76

Treated hypertension <0.01 2.61 1.68 4.05

Diabetes (any type) 0.07 1.59 0.97 2.61

Treated hyperlipidaemia 0.69 0.92 0.61 1.38

Current or former smoker <0.01 0.48 0.31 0.76

Coronary heart disease 0.43 1.21 0.76 1.94

Other cardioembolic source of

thrombus

0.28 1.56 0.69 3.49

Cardiac failure 0.03 0.17 0.03 0.85

Peripheral arterial disease 0.29 0.75 0.45 1.27

Contralateral carotid occlusion 0.21 1.69 0.75 3.80

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Table 19 continued

Parameter p-

value

Odds Ratio

(OR)

95% confidence

interval for OR

Lower Upper

Contralateral carotid stenosis 70-

99%

0.12 0.66 0.39 1.11

Contralateral carotid stenosis 50-

69%

<0.01 0.18 0.08 0.40

Contralateral carotid stenosis <50%

(reference group)

N/A 1 N/A N/A

Baseline mRS=4 0.14 0.26 0.04 1.57

Baseline mRS=3 <0.01 0.20 0.06 0.62

Baseline mRS=2 0.20 1.38 0.84 2.26

Baseline mRS=1 0.40 0.81 0.49 1.33

Baseline mRS=0 (reference group) N/A 1 N/A N/A

Cholesterol (1 mmol increase in

serum total cholesterol)

0.30 0.89 0.71 1.11

Diastolic blood pressure (per

10mmHg increase)

0.13 0.90 0.98 1.00

Systolic blood pressure (per

10mmHg increase)

0.98 1.00 0.91 1.09

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Table 19 continued

Parameter p-value Odds Ratio

(OR)

95% confidence interval for OR

Lower Upper

ARWMC (per unit

increase)

<0.01 1.13 1.06 1.20

Qualifying event was

stroke

<0.01 4.30 2.46 7.53

Qualifying event was TIA 0.03 1.91 1.06 3.43

Qualifying event retinal TIA

or retinal stroke (ref.

group)

N/A 1 N/A N/A

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Table 20. Univariable vascular anatomical predictors of new DWI-MRI lesions

following CAS in 115 patients in the ICSS-MRI Substudy for whom adequate

pre-procedure catheter angiography was available

Parameter p-

value

Odds

Ratio (OR)

95% confidence

interval for OR

Lower Upper

Carotid artery NASCET degree of

stenosis (per 10% increase)

0.69 0.97 0.83 1.13

Ratio of maximal stenosis length to

CCA diameter (per unit increase)

0.46 1.28 0.67 2.45

Angle between common and internal

carotid arteries

0.12 0.99 0.98 1.00

External carotid artery stenosis >50% 0.08 0.42 0.16 1.10

Plaque ulceration 0.66 1.10 0.73 1.66

Pinhole stenosis 0.88 1.13 0.25 5.05

Common carotid artery atheroma 0.69 0.88 0.47 1.65

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Factors in the univariable analysis with significance <0.05 were considered for entry

into a multivariable model. One possible model is illustrated below in Table 21. Factors

independently increasing the number of new DWI brain lesions on the post-procedure

scan in this model are a left-sided procedure (OR 1.59, 95% CI 1.04 to 2.44, p=0.03),

increasing age (OR 2.10 per 10 years increase, 95% CI 1.61 to 2.74, p<0.01), being

male (OR 2.83, 95% CI 1.72 to 4.67, p<0.01), treated hypertension (OR 2.04, 95% CI

1.25 to 3.33, p<0.01) and absence of a diagnosis of cardiac failure (OR 6.58, 95% CI

1.23 to 35.07, p=0.03).

Inter-rater agreement, calculated for binary anatomical characteristics, was moderate

for CCA atheroma (κ=0.50, p<0.01), substantial for the type of stenosis (smooth,

irregular or ulcerated, κ=0.76, p<0.01) and slight for pinhole stenosis (κ=0.13, p=0.06).

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Table 21. Independent predictors of new DWI-MRI lesions following CAS in 115

patients in the ICSS-MRI Substudy for whom adequate pre-procedure catheter

angiography was available

Parameter p-

value

Odds

ratio

(OR)

95% confidence interval for OR

Lower Upper

Left-sided stenosis 0.03 1.59 1.04 2.44

Age (per 10-year

increase)

<0.01 2.10 1.61 2.74

Male <0.01 2.83 1.72 4.67

Treated hypertension <0.01 2.04 1.25 3.33

Absence of cardiac

failure

0.03 6.58 1.23 35.07

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Discussion and conclusions 18.4

18.4.1 Summary

Of the vascular anatomical characteristics measured specifically for this analysis, none

significantly influence the risk of new DWI-positive lesions on the post-procedure scan.

Independent factors increasing the number of new lesions were age, approximately

doubling risk for each advancing decade of life, and treated hypertension. A diagnosis

of cardiac failure, being female and undergoing a right-sided procedure all

independently decreased the number of new lesions.

18.4.2 Discussion

The assumption that a difficult procedure – technically challenging for an inexperienced

investigator – will be associated with an increased procedural risk has led to attempts

to define which vascular anatomical variants require extra skill to navigate during CAS.

A Delphi panel of CAS experts proposed a scoring system for rating difficulty based on

vessel angulation, tortuosity of the arteries, the presence of external or common carotid

artery disease or aortic arch variants [123]. Studies focussing on clinical endpoints,

usually stroke or death, have found a number of vascular anatomical factors that

increase the risk of an adverse outcome – lesion length [203] [122] [120], plaque

ulceration or plaque calcification [122], aortic arch variants [122] [205], angulation of

the ICA-CCA bifurcation [120] and the side of the procedure [120]. Atypical aortic arch

configuration may also be linked to longer catheter manipulation times, which itself may

be linked to adverse outcome [206]. However, other authors have failed to find a link

between lesion or vascular characteristics and outcome [207].

Factors specifically associated with an increased risk of new DWI-MRI lesions following

CAS in other studies include age [208], the presence of an ulcerated stenosis [208],

aortic atherosclerotic lesions [209] and increasing lesion length [208].

New ischaemic brain lesions following CAS are of concern. Subclinical injury to the

brain from microemboli generated during the procedure, i.e. insufficient to cause

clinically-apparent focal neurological symptoms, is thought to be a risk factor for

cognitive dysfunction perhaps too subtle to be detected without neuropsychological

testing [210]. CAS was associated with a larger decrease in cognitive ability than CEA

in selected patients enrolled at two ICSS centres, although the difference was not

statistically significant and the sample size was relatively small compared to the overall

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trial size [211]. A decrease in cognitive performance in both groups occurred

regardless of the baseline white matter lesion burden of the patients studied [212].

This analysis demonstrated a higher number of new DWI-MRI lesions following CAS in

patients undergoing left-sided procedures, but was not able to replicate the findings of

others of an increased procedural risk with pinhole stenosis, length of stenosis or ICA-

CCA angulation. In ICSS the anatomical suitability of the stenosis for CAS or CEA (the

patient was required to be suitable for either to be included in the trial) was determined

prior to randomization using non-invasive imaging including duplex ultrasound or CT or

MR angiography. Pre-stenting catheter angiograms were primarily obtained to plan

procedures, and thus the films or DICOM images available for this analysis did not

routinely include the contralateral carotid artery or the aortic arch and CCA origin. It is

possible that patients thought to be “high risk” for stenting because of their vascular

anatomy were excluded from enrolment in ICSS. The trial protocol specified tortuous

anatomy proximal or distal to the stenosis, the presence of visible thrombus, proximal

CCA stenotic disease or pseudo-occlusion as examples of high risk anatomies. The

relatively low percentage of patients with pinhole stenosis and the low average CCA-

ICA angle in our study may reflect this. Inter-rater agreement for some of the measured

features, such as plaque ulceration, has also been shown to be poor [202].

Given the lack of inter-rater agreement for binary features, and the lack of a strong

association between vascular characteristics and the outcome, this data does not

support selecting patients for CAS based on “safe” vascular anatomy. In future, newer

imaging techniques such as 3T MRI looking at the composition of carotid plaque may

prove more useful in risk stratification if they are able to accurately identify fragile

plaques vulnerable to fragmentation and dislodgement by a vascular catheter [213].

Older patients in the ICSS-MRI Substudy were found to have a higher number of new

ischaemic brain lesions after stenting, and the trial also demonstrated as association

between the total volume of DWI lesions and hemispheric stroke in this patient group

[64] [200]. This finding agrees with clinical data from the Carotid Stenting Trialists’

Collaboration (CTSC) which conducted a meta-analysis of individual patient data from

ICSS [82], EVA-3S [79] and SPACE [77]. This revealed a doubling of risk of stroke,

myocardial infarction or death within 30 days of CAS compared with CEA in patients

over the age of 70 years with no significant difference in the risk in younger patients.

The mechanism by which age increases risk is not apparent from this analysis, but

could be related to an increase in the overall burden of atheroma in the vasculature

over time, a greater baseline ARWMC score and therefore decreased “cerebral

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reserve” when ischaemia occurs, or age may be a marker of decreased physiological

reserve to tolerate the procedure and hospitalization. An increase in atheroma in the

aorta with age may also go some way to explaining concerns about the occurrence of

new DWI lesions on MRI brain following catheterization of the coronary arteries where

the carotid artery is not manipulated [214].

That cerebral protection devices did not protect against the occurrence of new DWI

brain lesions in our analysis agrees with the findings of two small randomized studies

of protected vs unprotected CAS [196] [197], but disagrees with one other study and

one systematic review which found a reduction in embolic load with CPD use [215]

[192]. However, even these two analyses demonstrate that new DWI lesions still

frequently occur following protected CAS. Most CPDs in ICSS and the ICSS-MRI

Substudy were of the distal filter type, and newer flow-reversal devices may offer better

protection against distal embolism [66].

18.4.3 Limitations

Views on catheter angiography were often limited, and thus it was not possible to

evaluate the anatomy of the intracranial portion of the ICA, the proximal CCA or the

anatomy of the aortic arch. All of these may be important areas of technical difficulty,

and could be further studied on CT or MR angiogram in the ICSS-MRI Substudy or

other patient cohorts. There is no correction in this analysis for multiple statistical

comparisons, and there is therefore a possibility of type I (false positive) error in

interpreting a positive result.

18.4.4 Conclusions

It is unlikely that the excess of new DWI brain lesions seen in CAS patients in the

ICSS-MRI Substudy was due to vascular anatomical variation alone. Patients who

match the inclusion criteria for ICSS and in whom stenting is thought viable need not

be excluded from the procedure on the basis of individual vascular anatomical

characteristics as assessed on catheter angiogram. In agreement with other studies,

age remains a risk factor for CAS and should be taken into account when deciding

between CAS and CEA. Caution should be exercised in offering CAS to patients over

the age of 70, as discussed in Chapter 17. There is mounting evidence that filter-type

CPDs do not offer protection against brain ischaemia during CAS, and our findings

therefore do not support their routine use.

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19. Validation of an existing risk score for carotid stenting

Introduction 19.1

Patients allocated to stenting in the International Carotid Stenting Study experienced a

higher risk of stroke than patients allocated to endarterectomy in an analysis limited to

those whose procedures were initiated (7.0% vs 3.3%, p<0.01). This was mostly

attributable to an excess of minor (non-disabling) stroke [82]. Matching this finding,

three times the number of patients allocated to CAS in the ICSS-MRI Substudy were

found to have new ischaemic brain lesions on post-treatment MRI scans compared

with those undergoing endarterectomy [64]. CAS patients not only had higher numbers

of ischaemic lesions after revascularization, but these were more likely to occur in

cortical tissue and sub-adjacent white matter areas [200]. Patients who developed

clinical signs of hemispheric stroke had a higher overall lesion volume than those who

did not [64]. “Silent” brain infarction has been associated with dementia and cognitive

decline in other patient cohorts [216], and new lesions are thus of concern in the

context of carotid revascularization.

A risk score for the development of new ischaemic brain lesions following CAS,

constructed by Gröschel et al, was developed from a dataset of 176 patients

undergoing CAS at one centre from 2000-2006 who underwent diffusion-weighted

brain MRI sequences before and up to 48 hours after the procedure. Just over 51% of

their patients were symptomatic, and all had ≥70% carotid stenosis. Age over 70 years,

the presence of an ulcerated stenosis and lesion length over 1cm were identified as

risk factors for any new ipsilateral lesion on diffusion-weighted MRI following CAS

[208]. An analysis of the performance of this risk score is presented in this chapter.

Other risk prediction scores for CAS complications have been developed, but are not

studied here as they focus on clinical endpoints [122], address the choice between

CAS and CEA [217] [171], use MR plaque imaging techniques not in routine use in

ICSS [217] or focus on “high risk” patients not suitable for surgery [218] that would not

meet the inclusion criteria for the ICSS-MRI Substudy.

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Methods 19.2

19.2.1 The ICSS-MRI Substudy and anatomical feature rating

The ICSS-MRI Substudy protocol is summarized in Chapter 13 and described in

greater detail in Appendix V. In summary, patients over the age of 40 with greater than

50% symptomatic carotid stenosis and capable of giving informed consent to trial

participation were randomized in ICSS to either CAS or CEA. CAS was carried out

according to ICSS trial protocol [81], including the use of a cerebral protection device

when the operator thought it safe to deploy one. It was recommended that patients be

prescribed aspirin and clopidogrel to cover the procedure.

Patients who additionally enrolled in the ICSS-MRI Substudy underwent pre-procedural

MRI at 1.5T or 3.0T field strength up to 7 days before CAS with repeat sequences one

to three days after the procedure. Scan protocols included diffusion-weighted

sequences to demonstrate areas of acute of subacute brain ischaemia or infarction.

The presence or absence of at least one new ipsilateral DWI-positive lesion was

decided by the consensus reading of a neurologist and neuroradiologist. Vascular

anatomical features – lesion length and the presence or absence of ulceration – were

recorded by a trained reader in a separate analysis blind to the selected outcome of

any new ipsilateral ischaemic brain lesion on the post-procedure scan as detailed in

Chapter 18.

Patients in the ICSS-MRI Substudy allocated to CAS in whom the procedure was

initiated, and for whom sufficient baseline or procedural catheter angiography was

available, were studied in this analysis. A score was allocated to each patient in the

analysis according to the characteristics in Table 22 below. The patient’s age in years

on the day of enrolment in ICSS is used in this analysis. Many digital angiograms did

not contain calibration information to directly measure the length of stenosis. Therefore

the “total stenosis length” was defined as the distance between the most proximal and

distal shoulders of the lesion, expressed as a fraction of the common carotid artery

diameter as illustrated in Figure 16. This was then multiplied by an assumed “average”

common carotid diameter of 0.65cm [142] to give a total length of stenosis in

centimetres. “Ulceration” was defined, as proposed by the NASCET investigators, as “a

crater penetrating into a stenotic plaque and double density on ‘en face’ view” [202],

illustrated in Figure 14 (Chapter 18). DICOM images were evaluated using Osirix MD,

(Pixmeo SARL 2012).

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Figure 16. Measuring the total length of stenosis in three vascular anatomical profiles

CCA = common carotid artery, ICA = internal carotid artery, ECA = external carotid artery

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Table 22. Allocation of risk points in the Gröschel (2008) risk score

Study Risk factors Risk points

Gröschel et al.

(2008) [208]

Age ≥ 70 years 1

Age ≥ 80 years 1

Lesion length > 1cm 1

Ulcerated stenosis 1

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19.2.2 Statistical Methods

The proportion of patients with at least one new ipsilateral DWI-positive lesion on post-

procedure imaging was calculated for patients in each score bracket, expressed as a

percentage. A 95% confidence interval is given for each proportion. Differences

between the proportions of patients with a new DWI lesion in each group was assessed

by means of a chi-squared (χ2) test for trend. A receiver operator curve was

constructed to assess the performance of the score in our dataset, and the area under

the curve calculated with 95% confidence interval. In all analyses p<0.05 was assumed

to confer statistical significance. Analyses were performed using GraphPad (GraphPad

Software, 2013. GraphPad Instat version 3.00 for Windows 95. San Diego, California:

www.graphpad.com).

Results 19.3

Baseline characteristics of patients included in this analysis are presented in Tables 17

and 18 (Chapter 18). In summary, the mean age was 70.4 years, and 70.4% of patients

were male. 52/115 (45.2%) patients had at least one new DWI-positive lesion ipsilateral

to the treated artery of post-procedure MRI.

Using an assumed diameter of 0.65cm, the mean length of stenosis was 1.35cm.

18/115 (15.7%) patients had an ulcerated lesion.

33.3% of patients with a Gröschel score of 0 had at least one new ipsilateral ischaemic

brain lesion on the post-procedure MRI scan, 36.6% of those with a score of 1, 51.6%

of those with a score of 2, 61.1% of those with a score of 3 and 75.% of those with a

score of 4. The numbers of patients in each group and 95% confidence interval for the

proportion with a new ischaemic lesion is presented in Table 23. The observed

increase in patients with an increasing Gröschel score was statistically significant

(p=0.02, χ2 test for trend).

The receiver operator curve for the performance of the Gröschel risk score is presented

in Figure 17 below. The area under the curve is 0.62 (95% CI 0.52 to 0.73, p=0.02).

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Table 23. Results of application of the Gröschel (2008) risk score to 115 patients undergoing CAS in the ICSS-MRI Substudy

Gröschel

Score

Number of patients with

no new ipsilateral DWI-

positive lesions following

after CAS (n)

Number of patients with new

ipsilateral DWI-positive

lesions following CAS (n)

Proportion of patients with

new ipsilateral DWI-positive

lesions following CAS (%)

95% CI for proportion of patients

with new ipsilateral DWI-positive

lesions following CAS

0 14 7 33.3% 17.1% to 51.4%

1 26 15 36.6% 23.6% to 51.9%

2 15 16 51.6% 34.8% to 68.0%

3 7 11 61.1% 38.5% to 79.8%

4 1 3 75.0% 28.9% to 96.6%

χ2 test for trend p=0.02

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Figure 17. Receiver-operator curve for the application of the Gröschel (2008) risk

score in 115 patients undergoing CAS in the ICSS-MRI Substudy

Darker line represents receiver operator curve

Straight line represents area under curve =0.5

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Discussion and conclusions 19.4

19.4.1 Summary

45.2% of patients in the ICSS-MRI Substudy who were allocated to CAS, and in whom

adequate baseline or pre-procedure catheter angiography was available, suffered at

least one new ipsilateral ischaemic brain lesion on the post-procedure DWI-MRI scan.

While the Gröschel score distinguished between lower-risk and higher-risk groups (χ2

test for trend p=0.02), the sensitivity and specificity of the score in a receiver operator

curve was limited (AUC 0.62, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.73, p=0.02).

19.4.2 Limitations

The length of stenosis as measured in our study is an approximation – calibration

information was not contained in many digital angiograms, so to maintain consistency

we use the diameter of the CCA to derive a calculated length. However, the diameter of

the CCA has previously been found to vary by the side of the artery, sex, age, body

surface area, blood pressure and neck length [142] and in fact may vary as much as

14% within individuals depending on the phase of the cardiac cycle during which it is

imaged [219]. Patients randomized in the ICSS-MRI Substudy were required to be

equally suitable for both CAS and CEA, and it is possible that patients with very long or

ulcerated stenosis were excluded from randomization if interventionists thought them

unsuitable for CAS because of a high anticipated procedural risk.

19.4.3 Discussion

The area under the receiver operator curve (AUC) in this analysis (0.62) compares

unfavourably with the original performance of this score in the patient population from

which it was derived, which was 0.71 (0.76 for patients treated after the year 2004 only,

n=75) [208]. It should be noted that as the AUC corresponds to sensitivity and

specificity cut-offs for discriminating between those with or without new ischaemic brain

lesions, it does not necessarily indicate the level of clinical relevance [220]. The high

proportion of patients suffering new lesions in the lowest risk group in the ICSS-MRI

Substudy suggests that the Gröschel score is not sufficiently sensitive to be clinically

useful in classifying patients at risk of MRI-detected ischaemic brain lesions after

following CAS.

Chapter 18 illustrates that while age was a significant risk factor for the occurrence of

new ischaemic lesions in the ICSS-MRI Substudy, ulceration and the length of the

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target lesion appeared to have little influence. This finding suggests that the

performance of the score in this patient cohort was mainly driven by the effect of age

on the outcome. Therefore it is more likely that the key factor in the formation of new

ischaemic brain lesions during the procedure is the ability of the brain to tolerate

microemboli, rather than an increased risk of generation of debris during the procedure.

Indeed, the clinical outcome of CAS also appears to be strongly influenced by the age

of the patient, with a higher rate of stroke in this patient population [221] [222] [189]

[116] [223]. Reduced physiological reserve to tolerate the procedure, medications and

hospitalization, a higher burden of white matter disease with decreased cerebral

reserve to tolerate emboli, or an association between ageing and anatomical features

increasing the complexity of intervention [224] are all possible explanations for this

effect.

As detailed in Chapter 18, inter-rater agreement for the detection of carotid plaque

ulceration was limited in the ICSS-MRI Substudy, and other authors have reported little

agreement between angiographic appearances and subsequent histology [202] [225].

However, it should also be noted that while lesion ulceration was not a strong predictor

of subsequent brain ischaemia in the ICSS-MRI Substudy the risk of stroke without any

revascularization procedure may be higher than in patients with smooth lesions.

Patients enrolled in NASCET with a high degree of stenosis and an ulcerated lesion

experienced an up to 73% risk of subsequent ipsilateral stroke within 24 months

compared to a 21% risk in those patients without ulceration of the plaque [226].

Likewise, increasing age is a risk factor for stroke on medical therapy alone for

symptomatic carotid stenosis [43]. Thus the Gröschel score tested in this chapter may

give an indication of the risk of intervention, but it does not give an indication of the

likely risks of stroke on medical treatment alone or the likely risk of CEA, and therefore

is of limited use in selecting an overall treatment strategy in patients with greater than

50% symptomatic carotid stenosis.

19.4.4 Conclusions

Although there was an increase in the number of new ischaemic brain lesion on post-

procedure MRI after CAS with increasing Gröschel score, this risk score did not exhibit

adequate discrimination between low- and high-risk groups for routine clinical use, in

part because 33.3% of the lowest-risk group still suffered at least one new ipsilateral

ischaemic brain lesion on the post-procedure scan. Its routine use for selection of

patients for CAS cannot be recommended without validation in further patient groups.

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Age is a strong predictor of both clinical outcome and “silent” brain embolism, and

should continue to be taken into account when selecting patients for carotid stenting.

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20. Discussion, conclusions and future directions

Discussion of key findings 20.1

20.1.1 Carotid endarterectomy

This thesis presents several key findings regarding the safety of carotid

endarterectomy. Most notably, women had around double the risk of the combined

endpoint of stroke, myocardial infarction or death and nearly double the risk of the

combined risk of any major complication (stroke, MI, CNP, haematoma or death)

following CEA compared with men. That women might experience a greater operative

risk has been described before [98], and this is of particular concern because of their

lower risk of stroke on medical therapy alone – hence the observation in ECST that the

number of patients needed to undergo surgery to prevent one ipsilateral stroke over 5

years was just nine in men against 36 for women [105]. Surgeons should carefully

consider the risk-benefit calculation for revascularization in this patient group.

Although women experienced a higher risk of cranial nerve palsy in ICSS, the risk of

persisting disabling CNP was around 1 in 1000, with most CNPs resolving within 30

days. The association between haematoma and CNP suggests that careful attention to

haemostasis may reduce the latter’s incidence. Although patients should be warned

about possible symptoms of CNP, they can also be reassured of a generally good

eventual outcome even when CNP does occur, and this complication should not

dissuade surgeons from offering revascularization.

There is evidence that in the last few years the short-term risks associated with CEA

may have fallen slightly [227]. The risk of surgery was acceptably low in ICSS – only

3.3% of patients in whom the allocated CEA procedure was initiated suffered a stroke

within 30 days of the procedure – and the only independent predictor of the risk of

complications was baseline diastolic blood pressure. Attention to blood pressure in

symptomatic patients undergoing revascularization might reduce subsequent

complications, but this should be managed in the clinical context with particular care in

patients who have contralateral carotid stenosis or vertebral artery stenosis.

It is not surprising that risk scores derived from other patient populations did not

adequately discriminate between low- and high-risk groups of ICSS patients given the

lack of strong predictors of risk. Nonetheless, most published surgical risk scores have

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not previously been validated, so to be of use in clinical decision-making they should

be tested in other patient cohorts or updated.

20.1.2 Carotid stenting

This thesis identifies advancing age as a risk factor for complications following CAS,

but not for CEA, in agreement with individual patient meta-analysis across the

European trials of CAS vs CEA which suggested that CAS was as safe as CEA in

younger patients [115].

The finding that cerebral protection devices – mostly distal filters – offered no

statistically significant protection from stroke, myocardial infarction or death or the

occurrence of new ischaemic brain lesions following CAS in ICSS is disappointing, but

concurs with the results of other randomized comparisons [196] [197]. At best the

benefit of their deployment in CAS is unproven, and cannot be recommended as

routine. Similarly, results were disappointing in those patients treated using an open-

cell stent and the findings in this thesis favour the use of a closed-cell stent.

Inexperienced CAS interventionists are sometimes advised to avoid undertaking

stenting in patients with “challenging” vascular anatomy [123] thought to make the

procedure more technically difficult. In Chapter 18, this thesis argues that the influence

of patient characteristics, such as age, male sex and hypertension, exert a greater

influence on the number of new post-procedure ischaemic lesions as measured on MRI

brain, although patients with a left-sided stenosis experience approximately double the

number of new lesions. While an important observation, it must be kept in mind that

patients with lesions thought “unsuitable” for stenting were excluded from

randomization in ICSS, and that more inexperienced operators who performed trial

procedures were supervised. Indeed, patients treated in supervised centres in ICSS

experienced a lower risk of stroke, MI or death following CAS [82].

Conclusions 20.2

The case for offering carotid revascularization in suitable patients with ≥50%

symptomatic carotid stenosis due to atherosclerosis, who would otherwise experience

a high risk of recurrent stroke on medical therapy alone, is clear. Some groups of

patients, however, at are increased risk from intervention. In isolation, the subgroup

analyses presented in this thesis should be interpreted with caution. Yet combined with

data from individual patient meta-analysis of the European trials of CAS vs CEA, and

risk modelling data from the original NASCET and ECST trials of carotid surgery versus

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medical therapy, there is evidence from the work presented in this thesis that in the

short term stenting is more hazardous in the elderly, that the routine use of filter-type

cerebral protection devices in CAS is not supported by high-quality evidence, that

closed-cell stents are safer than open and that women should be informed of a

potentially small increased risk of stroke, MI, cranial nerve palsy, haematoma or death

following endarterectomy.

What is not addressed in these analyses is whether the overall benefits of intervention

extend to lower-risk patients, and it is this question that is the subject of ongoing

research.

Future directions – who should have what treatment? 20.3

20.3.1 Revisiting the case for intervention

The standard of care for clinically stable patients with greater than 50% symptomatic

carotid stenosis has been to perform carotid endarterectomy (in preference to carotid

stenting in low-risk patients) to remove the symptomatic plaque and thus reduce the

long-term risk of recurrent stroke or TIA [128] [153] [130]. However, since the landmark

large randomized trials of CEA vs medical therapy, NASCET and ECST, there have

been a number of developments in care that call into question the benefit of

intervention in all patients with this degree of stenosis. This thesis has explored the

subject of which patients are at risk of complications from CEA or CAS, but in order to

select patients who will benefit in the long-term from revascularization it is necessary to

consider their risk of stroke without intervention as well.

Medical therapy for secondary prevention of stroke has changed. Previous trials of

CAS or CEA for carotid stenosis did not specify targets for control of vascular risk

factors, but numerous guidelines now exist for primary and secondary prevention

therapy [228] [229] [230] [231]. Cholesterol-lowering statins were not available during

recruitment into NASCET, but their use in secondary prevention for stroke is now

widespread in the knowledge that they reduce the risk of stroke in patients with carotid

disease [232] [233].

The pathology of symptomatic carotid plaque is well-described. An inflamed plaque

with macrophage infiltration, fresh thrombus, a large lipid core and rupture of the

fibrous plaque are all histological features associated with stroke (as opposed to TIA or

amaurosis fugax) [234]. Catheter angiography, the method used to determine the

degree of stenosis for entry to the NASCET and ECST trials, has fallen out of common

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use as newer less invasive imaging techniques have been developed – ultrasound, CT

and MR angiography and advanced plaque imaging with MRI or 3D ultrasound. The

degree of stenosis on its own is currently used in the selection of patients to undergo

revascularization and is one potential marker of plaque instability – larger plaques

causing higher degrees of stenosis are more likely to cause symptoms due to a more

unstable plaque composition with less fibrous tissue. The ability to directly image

plaque components associated with high stroke risk such as a lipid-rich core [235]

[236], ulceration, thin or ruptured fibrous cap [235] [236] or intra-plaque haemorrhage

[235] [237] [236] with MRI is beginning to change the way patients are risk stratified

and may blur the line between asymptomatic and symptomatic patients when selecting

patients for revascularization based on their risk of stroke. Work is underway, for

example, in the Plaque At Risk (PARISK) study to enrol 300 patients with <70%

recently-symptomatic carotid stenosis, who are not scheduled to undergo carotid

endarterectomy. These patients will undergo detailed MR, CT and US of the carotid

arteries to determine which plaque characteristics confer a high risk of recurrent stroke

[238].

20.3.2 The risks of intervention

Detailed plaque imaging may similarly give clues as to the risk of the revascularization

procedure itself. Echolucent plaques on ultrasound – unstable, lipid-rich or

haemorrhagic plaques more likely to cause neurological symptoms untreated have

been shown to increase the risk of carotid stenting, perhaps through the dislodgement

of adherent thrombus during the passage of endovascular equipment across the lesion

[239]. Ongoing randomized trials with a carotid intervention arm such as ECST-2,

described below, are incorporating detailed modern carotid imaging into their baseline

assessment of patients and will use detailed post-procedure MRI to examine the

occurrence of procedural brain ischaemia, opening up the possibility of further

characterising the risk of intervention based on radiological plaque appearance.

Collaborative work continues to establish the determinants of the risks of intervention,

pooling individual patient data from the European trials of carotid stenting and surgery

through the Carotid Stenting Trialists’ Collaboration [240]. This larger dataset, which

includes data from patients enrolled in ICSS, has examined the effect of baseline

patient characteristics on procedural risk as described in Chapters 14 and 17, and has

recently published an analysis of the effect of operator experience on the outcome of

carotid stenting, demonstrating a more favourable outcome in those interventionists

that performed more than five procedures per year within the trials [126].

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20.3.3 Ongoing clinical trials

The second European Carotid Surgery Trial (ECST-2) [172], designed by many of the

trialists involved in ICSS, intends to answer some of these questions about how best to

treat patients with carotid stenosis. It is a prospective randomized trial of patients with

low-to-intermediate risk carotid stenosis ≥50%, enrolling those with asymptomatic

plaques and recently-symptomatic patients whose calculated risk of ipsilateral stroke is

less than 15% over 5 years. The Carotid Artery Risk Score used to calculate risk is

adapted from an algorithm designed at Oxford University taking into account age, sex,

the degree of stenosis, the nature of any symptomatic event and how recently it

occurred, vascular risk factors and plaque morphology [241]. Patients in a medical

therapy group will receive “optimized medical therapy” (OMT) – antiplatelet therapy,

target-led control of cholesterol level and blood pressure – while an intervention group

will receive OMT plus revascularization. The trial tests the hypothesis that patients with

a low predicted stroke risk on OMT alone will not benefit from revascularization due to

periprocedural complications.

SPACE-2 (Stent-Protected Angioplasty in Asymptomatic Carotid Artery Stenosis

versus Endarterectomy Trial-2) [173] was originally designed as a randomized trial for

patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis ≥70% as measured by ultrasound. Its

protocol called for a recruitment target of 3640 patients in three arms: best medical

treatment, CEA in addition to best medical treatment, and CAS in addition to best

medical treatment. The trial investigators recently redesigned the SPACE-2 protocol

such that now patients are enrolled into SPACE-2a comparing best medical treatment

with CAS in addition to best medical treatment, and SPACE-2b comparing best medical

treatment with CEA in addition to best medical treatment [242]. Interestingly, CREST-2

(the second Carotid Revascularization Endarterectomy versus Stenting Trial) has a

similar design and inclusion criteria to the new SPACE-2 protocol, in that neither trial

directly compares CAS with CEA. This role is taken by the second Asymptomatic

Carotid Surgery Trial (ACST-2) [174], which aims to compare the safety and efficacy of

CAS with CEA in 5000 patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis who are “though to

need some procedural intervention” to prevent future stroke [243]. Recently-published

interim results from this study indicate that the risk of stroke, myocardial infarction or

death within 30 days of either procedure was low at 1.0% in 691 patients [174].

When clinicians are uncertain about which treatment will provide the greatest benefit to

the patient in return for an acceptably low risk of harm, it is appropriate to discuss with

them enrolment in a clinical trial. Patients can benefit from inclusion in randomized

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clinical trials, even when allocated to the control therapy – close attention to control of

vascular risk factors and frequent follow-up may improve management of the patient’s

condition over and above routine clinical care. Almost all patients with low-risk carotid

stenosis can therefore be enrolled in one of the above trials, provided they can be

treated at a participating centre. Patients with low-risk symptomatic carotid stenosis

could be suitable for enrolment in ECST-2. When the medical team are uncertain as to

whether intervention is warranted in an asymptomatic patient they may enrol in ECST-

2, SPACE-2 or CREST-2. And when intervention is thought necessary in asymptomatic

patients, ACST-2 compares CAS with CEA for the long-term primary prevention of

stroke.

When the pace of change in stroke prevention is fast, there is a need for good-quality

evidence from randomized clinical trials to inform decision making from the individual

patient level up to the design of healthcare systems. If these four trials can recruit their

target numbers and report definitive results, then we may be some way further to

answering the question of “who should receive what treatment” for carotid stenosis.

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[261] A. Kastrup, T. Nägele, K. Gröschel, F. Schmidt, E. Volger and J. Schulz,

“Incidence of new brain lesions after carotid stenting with and without cerebral

protection,” Stroke, vol. 37, no. 9, pp. 2312-2316, 2006.

[262] O. Wolf, P. Heider, M. Heinz, H. Poppert, T. Schmidt-Thieme and D. Sander,

“Frequency, clinical significance and course of cerebral ischemic events after

carotid endarterectomy evaluated by serial diffusion-weighted imaging,” Eur J

Vasc Endovasc Surg, vol. 27, no. 2, pp. 167-171, 2004.

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22. Appendix I – ICSS post-treatment care questionnaire

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23. Appendix II – ICSS cranial nerve palsy questionnaire

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24. Appendix III – List of ICSS centres and investigators

Location of ICSS recruiting centres, number of patients recruited at each centre in

square brackets, and collaborators at each centre (PI) = local principal investigator

[82].

24.1.1 Australia

Austin Health, Heidelberg [46]: M Brooks, B Chambers (PI), A Chan, P Chu, D Clark,

H Dewey, G Donnan, G Fell, M Hoare, M Molan, A Roberts, N Roberts

Box Hill Hospital (Monash University), Melbourne [25]: B Beiles, C Bladin (PI), C

Clifford, G Fell, M Grigg, G New

Monash Medical Centre, Clayton [26]: R Bell, S Bower, W Chong, M Holt, A Saunder,

PG Than (PI)

Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane [48]: S Gett, D Leggett, T McGahan (PI), J

Quinn, M Ray, A Wong, P Woodruff

Repatriation General Hospital, Daw Park, Adelaide [6]: R Foreman, D Schultz (PI), R

Scroop, B Stanley

Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne [57]: B Allard, N Atkinson, W Cambell, S

Davies (PI), P Field, P Milne, P Mitchell, B Tress, B Yan

The Royal Hobart Hospital, Hobart [18]: A Beasley, D Dunbabin, D Stary, S Walker

(PI)

24.1.2 Belgium

Antwerp University Hospital, Antwerp [10]: P Cras, O d'Archambeau, JMH Hendriks

(PI), P Van Schil

AZ St Blasius, Dendermonde [5]: M Bosiers (PI), K Deloose, E van Buggenhout

AZ Sint Jan Brugge-Oostende, Campus Brugge, Brugges [18]: J De Letter, V

Devos, J Ghekiere, G Vanhooren (PI).

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Cliniques Universitaires St Luc, Bruxelles [1]: P Astarci, F Hammer, V Lacroix, A

Peeters (PI), R Verhelst

Imelda Ziekenhuis, Bonheiden [3]: L DeJaegher (PI), A Peeters, J Verbist

24.1.3 Canada

CHUM Notre-Dame Hospital, Montreal [30]: J-F Blair, JL Caron, N Daneault, M-F

Giroux, F Guilbert, S Lanthier, L-H Lebrun, V Oliva, J Raymond, D Roy (PI), G Soulez,

A Weill

Foothills Medical Centre, Calgary [4]: M Hill (PI), W Hu, M Hudion, W Morrish, G

Sutherland, J Wong

24.1.4 Finland

Helsinki University Central Hospital, Helsinki [33]: Albäck A., Harno H., Ijäs P.,

Kaste M. (PI), Lepäntalo M., Mustanoja S., Paananen T., Porras M., Putaala J., Railo

M., Sairanen T., Soinne L., Vehmas A., Vikatmaa P.

24.1.5 Germany

Otto von Guericke University, Magdeburg [9]: M Goertler (PI), Z Halloul, M Skalej

24.1.6 Ireland

Beaumont Hospital, Dublin [4]: P Brennan, C Kelly, A Leahy, J Moroney (PI), J

Thornton

24.1.7 New Zealand

Auckland City Hospital, Auckland [40], PA Barber, R Bourchier, A Hill, A Holden, J

Stewart (PI)

24.1.8 Norway

Rikshospitalet University Hospital, Oslo [16]: SJ Bakke (PI), K Krohg-Sørensen , M

Skjelland, B Tennøe

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24.1.9 Poland

Institute of Psychiatry and Neurology (2nd Department of Neurology &

Department of Neuroradiology) & Medical University of Warsaw (2nd Department

of General, Vascular and Oncological Surgery), Warsaw [20]: P Bialek, Z Biejat, W

Czepiel, A Czlonkowska (PI), A Dowzenko, J Jedrzejewska, A Kobayashi, M Lelek, J

Polanski

24.1.10 Slovenia

University Medical Centre, Ljubljana [12]: J Kirbis, Z Milosevic, B Zvan (PI)

24.1.11 Spain

Hospital Clinic, Barcelona [18]: J Blasco, A Chamorro (PI), J Macho, V Obach, V

Riambau, L San Roman

Parc Taulí Sabadell Hospital, Barcelona [33]: J Branera, D Canovas (PI), Jordi

Estela, A Gimenez Gaibar, J Perendreu

24.1.12 Sweden

Malmö University Hospital, Malmö [67]: K Björses, A Gottsater (PI), K Ivancev,T

Maetzsch, B Sonesson

Sodersjukhuset, Stockholm [55]: B Berg, M Delle, J Formgren, P Gillgren, T-B Kall, P

Konrad (PI), N Nyman, R Takolander

The Karolinska Institute, Stockholm [5]: T Andersson, J Malmstedt, M Soderman, C

Wahlgren, N Wahlgren (PI)

24.1.13 Switzerland

Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois, Lausanne [12]: S Binaghi, L Hirt, P Michel

(PI), P Ruchat

University Hospital Basel, Basel [94]: LH Bonati, ST Engelter, F Fluri, L Guerke, AL

Jacob, E Kirsch, PA Lyrer (PI), E-W Radue, P Stierli, M Wasner, S Wetzel

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University Hospital of Geneva, Geneva [16]: C Bonvin, A Kalangos, K Lovblad, N

Murith, D Ruefenacht, R Sztajzel (PI)

24.1.14 The Netherlands

Academic Medical Centre, Amsterdam [56]: M Koelemaij, PJ Nederkoorn (PI), J

Reekers, YB Roos

Erasmus Medical Centre, Rotterdam [75]: JM Hendriks, PJ Koudstaal (PI), PMT

Pattynama, A van der Lugt, LC van Dijk, MRHM van Sambeek, H van Urk, HJM

Verhagen

The Haga Teaching Hospitals, The Hague [45]: CMA Bruijninckx, SF de Bruijn, R

Keunen, B Knippenberg, A Mosch (PI), F Treurniet, L van Dijk, H van Overhagen , J

Wever

Isala Klinieken, Zwolle [14]: FC de Beer, JSP van den Berg (PI), BAAM van Hasselt,

DJ Zeilstra

Medical Centre Haaglanden, The Hague [3]: J Boiten (PI), JCA de Mol van Otterloo,

AC de Vries, GJ Lycklama a Nijeholt, BFW van der Kallen

UMC St Radboud, Nijmegen [13]: JD Blankensteijn, FE De Leeuw, LJ Schultze Kool

(PI), JA van der Vliet

University Medical Centre, Utrecht [270]: GJ de Borst, GAP de Kort, LJ Kapelle (PI),

TH Lo, WPThM Mali, F Moll, HB van der Worp, H Verhagen

24.1.15 United Kingdom

Addenbrookes Hospital, Cambridge [5]: N Higgins, PJ Kirkpatrick, P Martin (PI), K

Varty

Birmingham Heartlands Hospital, Birmingham [11]: D Adam, J Bell, AW Bradbury, P

Crowe, M Gannon, MJ Henderson, D Sandler, RA Shinton (PI), JM Scriven, T Wilmink

Lancashire Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust, Preston [2]: S D'Souza, A Egun, R Guta,

S Punekar, DM Seriki (PI), G Thomson

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Liverpool Royal Infirmary [21] and The Walton Centre, Liverpool [7]: JA Brennan,

TP Enevoldson, G Gilling-Smith (PI), DA Gould, PL Harris, RG McWilliams, H-C

Nasser, R White

Manchester Royal Infirmary, Manchester [2]: KG Prakash, F Serracino-Inglott, G

Subramanian (PI), JV Symth, MG Walker

Newcastle Acute Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Newcastle-Upon-Tyne [108]: M

Clarke, M Davis, SA Dixit, P Dorman (PI), A Dyker, G Ford, A Golkar, R Jackson, V

Jayakrishnan, D Lambert, T Lees, S Louw, S Macdonald, AD Mendelow, H Rodgers, J

Rose, G Stansby, M Wyatt

North Bristol NHS Trust, Frenchay Hospital, Bristol [13]: T Baker, N Baldwin (PI), L

Jones, D Mitchell, E Munro, M Thornton

Royal Free Hospital, London [1]: D Baker, N Davis, G Hamilton (PI), D McCabe, A

Platts, J Tibballs

Sheffield Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Sheffield [151]: J Beard, T

Cleveland, D Dodd, P Gaines, R Lonsdale, R Nair, A Nassef, S Nawaz, G Venables

(PI)

St George’s University of London and St George’s NHS Healthcare Trust, London

[58]: A Belli, A Clifton, G Cloud, A Halliday, H Markus (PI), R McFarland, R Morgan, A

Pereira, A Thompson

St Mary’s Hospital, Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, London [13]: J

Chataway (PI), N Cheshire, R Gibbs, M Hammady, M Jenkins, I Malik, J Wolfe

University College London Hospitals NHS FoundationTrust, London [51]: M

Adiseshiah, C Bishop, S Brew, J Brookes, MM Brown (PI), R Jäger, N Kitchen

University Hospital of South Manchester, Wythenshawe, Manchester [58]: R

Ashleigh, S Butterfield, GE Gamble, C McCollum (PI), A Nasim, P O'Neill, J Wong

Western Infirmary, Glasgow [5]: RD Edwards, KR Lees, AJ MacKay, J Moss (PI), P

Rogers

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25. Appendix IV – ICSS trial protocol

Protocol summary 25.1

25.1.1 Background

Clinical trials have shown that carotid surgery prevents stroke but also has significant

morbidity. Stenting has become an established alternative treatment for coronary and

peripheral vascular disease and has the advantage of avoiding general anaesthesia

and neck incision. In July 1997, randomization was completed in the Carotid and

Vertebral Artery Transluminal Angioplasty Study (CAVATAS). The results did not show

a difference in the major risks or benefits of carotid angioplasty and surgery, but the

trial did show that both methods still carry a significant risk of causing a stroke.

Techniques of carotid angioplasty have improved and stenting is increasingly used.

The International Carotid Stenting Study (ICSS or CAVATAS 2) is a follow-on study to

CAVATAS designed as an international, multicentre, randomized trial, which will

evaluate stenting of carotid artery stenosis in patients with cerebrovascular disease.

25.1.2 Centre requirements

A neurologist or physician with an interest in stoke, a surgeon with expertise in carotid

endarterectomy and an interventionalist with expertise in carotid angiography and the

techniques of angioplasty and stenting.

25.1.3 Inclusion criteria

Symptomatic atheromatous carotid stenosis, >50% by NASCET criteria, suitable for

stenting and surgical endarterectomy.

25.1.4 Treatments

Patients will be randomised in equal proportions to be treated by carotid

endarterectomy or stenting. New designs of stents, filters and protection devices will be

incorporated into the study to allow tracking of new technology if approved by the

Steering Committee. Surgery can be performed with local or general anaesthesia.

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25.1.5 Sample size

N=1500 patients from fully enrolled centres. Sample size calculations show that the

95% confidence intervals will be 3.0 percentage points for the outcome measure of 30

day stroke, myocardial infarction and death rate and 3.3 percentage points for the

outcome measure of death or disabling stroke during follow-up.

25.1.6 Primary outcome measure

Long term survival free of disabling stroke

25.1.7 Secondary outcome measures

Any stroke, myocardial infarction or death within 30 days of treatment,

treatment-related cranial nerve palsy or haematoma

Stenosis (>70%) and occlusion on ultrasound follow-up

Transient ischaemic attack

Stroke during follow-up

Further treatment procedure

Quality of life and economic measures

Background 25.2

Stroke is the major cause of acquired adult physical disability and is responsible for

12% of all deaths in the UK. Reducing the burden of stroke is one of the priorities of the

recent government white paper, Saving Lives: Our Healthier Nation. In Europe alone,

there are approximately one million new cases of stroke a year. Atherosclerotic

stenosis of the carotid artery is an important cause of stroke, which may be heralded by

a transient ischaemic attack (TIA) or minor stroke, which recovers without serious

disability. The risk of recurrent stroke in recently symptomatic patients with severe

carotid stenosis is as high as 28% over two years. The European Carotid Surgery Trial

(ECST) and the North American Symptomatic Carotid Endarterectomy Trial (NASCET)

have demonstrated convincingly that this risk is reduced significantly by carotid

endarterectomy [36] [35]. Carotid surgery has therefore become a standard treatment

for these patients. However, the trials showed a significant risk of stroke or death

resulting from surgery of between 6 and 8%. Surgery also caused significant morbidity

from myocardial infarction during the general anaesthetic used in most centres, and

minor morbidity, including cranial nerve palsy and wound haematoma, from the

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incision. An increasing number of surgeons are performing carotid endarterectomy

under local anaesthesia in the belief that it reduces the risks, although there is currently

little evidence to support this practice, until the data from the General Anaesthesia

versus Local Anaesthesia for Carotid Endarterectomy (GALA) trial are reported.

Stenting is a new method of treating carotid stenosis which has evolved from the

technique of percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTA). Stenting avoids some of the

hazards of surgery and has become an established treatment for peripheral and

coronary artery stenosis. Stenting is less invasive than carotid endarterectomy and has

advantages in terms of patient comfort, because the procedure avoids an incision in

the neck, and is usually conducted under local anaesthesia. Hospital stay need only be

for 24 hours after treatment if uncomplicated. When given the choice, stenting is

preferred by many patients. On the other hand, stenting does not remove

atheromatous plaque, has not been shown to prevent stroke and may have an

unacceptable incidence of restenosis. We therefore propose a multicentre randomised

trial to compare carotid stenting with carotid surgery.

25.2.1 Previous work in the field

Percutaneous transluminal angioplasty

A number of groups have published series of patients with carotid stenosis treated by

PTA. The cumulative total of patients in these series is over 1000, with a reported

major complication rate of less than 5% at the time of the procedure [244]. These data

suggested that carotid PTA has a similar risk to carotid surgery, but the results could

not be taken as definitive because none of the data were from randomised trials. We

therefore started a randomised trial, known as the Carotid and Vertebral Artery

Transluminal Angioplasty Study (CAVATAS) in l992. We completed randomisation in

July 1997.

Results of CAVATAS

560 patients were entered, from 24 centres in the UK, Australia, Canada, Finland,

Germany, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, and the USA. Patients with carotid stenosis

suitable for surgery were randomised between PTA (n=251) and carotid surgery

(n=253). Patients with carotid stenosis unsuitable for surgery (n=40) and patients with

vertebral artery stenosis (n=16) were separately randomised between PTA and

medical care alone. The number of patients in these last 2 groups was too small to

form any firm conclusions. The analysis has therefore been restricted to the 504

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patients with carotid stenosis randomised between PTA and surgery [75]. Baseline

variables were well matched. Almost all patients had severe stenosis (mean 86%). The

30-day outcome events were almost identical in the two groups with a rate of death or

any stroke lasting more than 7 days of 10.0% after angioplasty and 9.9% after surgery,

giving a hazard ratio of 1.01 (95% CI 0.56 to 1.81, p=NS). Analysis of the other risks of

treatment has confirmed that PTA was safer than surgery in terms of minor morbidity.

Cranial or peripheral nerve palsy was reported in 9% of surgical patients, but not in any

PTA patients (p<0.01). Haematoma requiring operation or prolonging hospital stay was

reported in 7% of surgical patients compared with 1% of PTA patients (p<0.01). PTA

also appeared safer than surgery with regard to perioperative myocardial infarction,

which occurred in 0.8% of surgical patients, but not in any PTA patients. Survival

analysis from randomisation showed no difference in outcome events of ipsilateral

stroke and any disabling stroke or death during follow up for up to 3 years with very few

events in either arm after the treatment period, suggesting that both treatments were

equally effective at preventing stroke. However, 19% of PTA patients had stenosis of

>70% or occlusion by ultrasound criteria at 12 months after randomisation compared

with 5% of surgical patients (p<0.01). Restenosis was not associated with new

symptoms, but long-term follow up is limited.

Causes and timing of stroke in CAVATAS

The cause of stroke within 30 days of first treatment in CAVATAS was cerebral

infarction in 22 patients in the PTA group and 20 patients in the surgery group. Primary

cerebral haemorrhage caused the other three strokes in the PTA group and two

strokes in the surgery group. All but one stroke was ipsilateral to the randomised artery.

Surprisingly, a significant proportion of these treatment-related strokes were delayed

after the day of treatment. Eight (36%) of the strokes in PTA patients occurred between

the second and 21st day after treatment. Delayed stroke was also found in six (27%) of

the surgical group between the third and 10th day after operation. Delayed stroke may

account for the relatively high rate of 30-day morbidity in CAVATAS at 10% compared

to 7.5% in ECST and 5.8% in NASCET.

Carotid stenting

Stents suitable for carotid use have only become available recently. The CAVATAS

Steering Committee decided to allow the use of stents at the discretion of the

interventionist. Stents were used in 55 patients randomised to PTA, usually as a

secondary procedure i.e. after initial balloon dilation. The indication for using a stent in

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these cases was usually an inadequate angiographic result and in some cases stents

were deployed because of stroke at the time of full balloon inflation, as a ‘bail-out’

procedure. Only one stroke occurred at the time of stent deployment (1.8%), although

there were a small number of delayed strokes after stenting.

The need for a trial of carotid stenting

It would be inappropriate to use the results of CAVATAS to propose the widespread

introduction of PTA for the treatment of carotid stenosis as an alternative to surgery,

because the 95% confidence interval surrounding the 10% risk of any stroke within 30

days of treatment in the surgical and angioplasty groups is ±5%. Nevertheless, the

results support the need for further randomised studies. The interventional technique

used to treat carotid stenosis has evolved over the 7 years since we started CAVATAS,

from the use of simple inflatable balloon catheters at the beginning of the trial to the

increasing use of stenting towards the end of the trial. Initially stents were used only as

a secondary procedure after full balloon inflation for inadequate results or

complications of treatment. The desire to prevent these complications and superior

early results in stented patients has led to the increasing use of the technique of

primary stenting in which the intention is to deploy a stent in every patient before

dilation (but after pre-dilatation to allow the atraumatic passage of the stent) of the

artery [245]. Primary stenting is now accepted as best practice and has become the

radiological technique of choice for carotid stenosis, replacing balloon angioplasty.

Advantages of carotid stenting

The majority of major strokes after carotid PTA are the result of dissection of the

carotid artery at the time of balloon inflation with subsequent thrombosis. It is believed

that stenting is safer than simple balloon angioplasty because embolisation, dissection

and closure of the carotid artery are less likely to occur [246] [247]. The subgroup

analysis of stented patients in CAVATAS is consistent with this suggestion. The

adverse consequences of dissection are minimised, because the stent maintains

laminar flow across the stenosis and seals the site of dissection, preventing a free

intimal flap. In addition, the stent mesh limits the size of any thrombus or atheromatous

debris that may be dislodged from the plaque at the time of dilation of the artery.

Superior dilation achieved by stenting compared with balloon angioplasty may also

reduce the rate of stroke in the early post-treatment period. In the coronary circulation,

stenting has been shown to produce superior outcomes compared with balloon

angioplasty [248] [249]. Individual case series suggest that carotid stenting has a

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similar rate of procedural stroke to that of carotid surgery [246] [247], while a recent

registry reported a total of 2048 patients from 24 centres undergoing carotid stenting

with a complication rate of stroke and death within 30 days of treatment of 5.8% [250].

Disadvantages of carotid stenting

Although acceptable safety at the time of stenting has been suggested by the case

series and registry data, stenting has not been subjected to a randomised trial in

comparison to conventional surgical treatment and has not been demonstrated to

prevent stroke, which is the aim of treatment. Stenting does not remove atheromatous

plaque and stents may stimulate neo-intimal hyperplasia. In the long term it is likely that

the rate of restenosis will be greater after stenting than after carotid surgery, which

could well result in an unacceptable rate of long-term stroke recurrence. There is an

important need to establish the efficacy of carotid stenting in comparison to surgery

before the technique is widely introduced without adequate trial based evidence.

Antiplatelet therapy

In cardiological practice, ischaemic complications during coronary stenting have been

shown to be significantly reduced by using a combination of two antiplatelet agents,

ticlopidine and aspirin. In one coronary trial, stent thrombosis was reduced from 3.6%

in patients assigned aspirin alone down to 0.5% in patients assigned aspirin and

ticlopidine [251]. A recently completed trial has shown that similar results with less risk

of side effects can be achieved during coronary stenting by using the combination of

clopidogrel with aspirin [252]. It is likely that this combination would also reduce the

risks of stroke during carotid stenting. A pilot study is currently being carried out at one

of the centres to establish the safety of the combination of clopidogrel and aspirin given

before and for 30 days after carotid stenting. It is likely that this will become standard

therapy. Most surgeons currently believe that combination antiplatelet therapy during

surgery is hazardous because of excess bleeding.

Economic and quality of life considerations

Quality of life and general health status were assessed in CAVATAS using the SF36

and EuroQol EQ-5D questionnaires. These showed a similar quality of life for patients

randomised to either treatment. Operating and radiology suite costs were similar in a

sample of patients at two UK centres, but surgery was associated with a longer hospital

stay and greater use of ITU beds. Surgery was therefore considerably more expensive

than angioplasty (mean difference £946). However, the mean cost of an angioplasty

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increased from £1086 to £1864 if a stent was used. The use of stents in every case is

therefore likely to increase the costs of stenting close to that of surgery, but this might

be counterbalanced by performing carotid stenting as a day case procedure. Surgical

length of stay is also declining. Follow up costs might be very different if restenosis is

more frequent in one arm. Economic analysis will therefore be an important component

of ICSS.

25.2.2 Aims of ICSS

To compare the risks, benefits and cost effectiveness of a treatment policy of referral

for carotid stenting compared with referral for carotid surgery.

Trial design 25.3

ICSS is an international, multicentre, randomised, controlled, open, prospective clinical

trial comparing carotid surgery with carotid stenting.

25.3.1 Participating centre requirements

Each centre must have a neurologist or physician with an interest in stroke who will see

patients prior to randomisation and for follow up. Carotid endarterectomy must be

carried out by designated surgeons with expertise in the operation. Carotid stenting will

be carried out by designated consultant interventionists with expertise in carotid

angiography and the techniques of angioplasty and stenting. Good collaboration

between the neurologists, surgeons and interventionists is essential and centres should

have regular neurovascular meetings. Attendance at training sessions in carotid

stenting provided by credentialing centres will be required for all interventionists prior to

participation. Participating centres will be required to submit curriculum vitae for all

participating clinicians and an audit of recent carotid surgery and PTA / stenting results.

An accreditation committee will decide if they have appropriate experience and

expertise to join the study. As a guide, surgeons and interventionists will be expected

to show a stroke and death rate within 30 days of treatment, consistent with the centres

in ECST who had an average rate of 7.0% with a 95% confidence interval of 5.8 to

8.3% [36]. Surgeons will be expected to have performed a minimum of 50 carotid

operations with a minimum annual rate of at least 10 cases per year. Interventionists

will similarly be expected to have performed a minimum of 50 stenting procedures, of

which at least 10 should be in the carotid territory. Centres where there is little or no

experience of carotid stenting may join ICSS for a probationary period in order to gain

the minimum experience of ten carotid stenting procedures required to join the trial

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fully. The results in patients randomised during the probationary period will be analysed

separately.

All centres will have to provide proof of ethical committee approval for the study before

commencing randomisation.

25.3.2 Probationary centres

Probationary centres will be required to fulfil all the other requirements for entry, but will

not have to provide audited data on ten carotid stenting procedures initially.

Probationary centres will randomise patients within the ICSS protocol between surgery

and stenting. Individual interventionists who are not able to satisfy the credentialing

requirements will be identified as probationary investigators. Stenting procedures

carried out during the probationary period must be proctored by an experienced carotid

interventionist, until the proctor is satisfied that the interventionist(s) at the centre can

satisfactorily carry out procedures unproctored. Probationary interventionists will

become fully enrolled in ICSS when both the proctor is satisfied that the interventionist

can perform procedures unsupervised and the interventionist has 10 or more

successfully completed cases in the trial, with an acceptable complication rate. When

an investigator has done sufficient successful procedures, the trial office will get

comments from the relevant proctor, and then have any decision to promote the

investigator or centre signed off by the chair of steering committee.

25.3.3 Proctoring

Proctors for probationary centres will be approved by the accreditation committee in

consultation with the probationary centre via the central ICSS office. Probationary

centres may suggest an appropriate proctor, but he or she will require prior approval

from the accreditation committee, based on review of the proctor’s experience of

carotid stenting. It is the responsibility of the probationary interventionist to make

contact with an approved ICSS proctor and to ensure a convenient date is organised

for the stenting procedure at which the proctor can be present. Copies of the relevant

radiology should be available for the proctor for review prior to starting the stenting

procedure. This should be done prior to randomisation if there was any doubt about the

suitability of the patient for stenting. In the event of a centre requiring proctoring for

surgery the same procedure will apply.

It is the responsibility of the probationary interventionist and the proctor in discussion to

ensure the lesion is appropriate for treatment (e.g. sufficiently severe), that the patient

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has received appropriate premedication (e.g. a combination of clopidogrel and aspirin)

and that the lesion is suitable for stenting. They should agree the type, range and sizes

of equipment required and the probationary interventionist should ensure that this

equipment is available to complete the procedure. If any of these conditions are not

met, the procedure should be abandoned and if appropriate rescheduled for another

occasion.

Catheter or arch angiography is not required in ICSS prior to randomisation if the

centre does not routinely perform angiography prior to treatment. However, the centre

interventionist, the proctor and the patient should be aware that if preliminary

angiography at the time of planned stenting shows a lesion which is not suitable for

stenting, the procedure should be abandoned and the patient referred for surgery, or

continued medical management. This type of cross over is envisaged in the trial

design.

Where a centre has an adequately qualified surgeon and interventionist they may

supervise surgeons and interventionists at the same centre whose experience would

not initially qualify them for the trial until they have gained sufficient experience. These

new investigators must enrol with the central ICSS office (see participating centre

requirements).

25.3.4 Inclusion criteria

Symptomatic extracranial, internal or bifurcation atheromatous carotid artery

stenosis that is suitable for both stenting and surgery and is deemed by the

randomising clinician to require treatment

The severity of the stenosis of the randomised artery should be at least 50% (as

measured by NASCET method or non-invasive equivalent)

Symptoms must have occurred in the 12 months before randomisation. It is

recommended that the time between symptoms and randomisation should be

less than 6 months, but patients with symptoms occurring between 6 and 12

months may be included if the randomising physician considers treatment

indicated

The patient must be clinically stable following their most recent symptoms

attributable to the stenotic vessel

Patients must be willing to have either treatment, be able to provide informed

consent, and be willing to participate in follow up

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Patients must be able to undergo their allocated treatment as soon as possible

after randomisation

Any age greater than 40 may be included. There is no upper age limit

Patients should only be randomised if the investigator is uncertain which of the

two treatments is best for that patient at that time

25.3.5 Exclusion criteria

Patients refusing either treatment

Patients unable or unwilling to give informed consent

Patients unwilling or unable to participate in follow up for whatever reason

Patients who have had a major stroke with no useful recovery of function within

the territory of the treatable artery

Patients with a stenosis that is known to be unsuitable for stenting prior to

randomisation because of one or more of:

o Tortuous anatomy proximal or distal to the stenosis

o Presence of visible thrombus

o Proximal common carotid artery stenotic disease

o Pseudoocclusion (‘string sign’)

o Patients not suitable for surgery due to anatomical factors e.g. high

stenosis, rigid neck

Patients in whom it is planned to carry out coronary artery bypass grafting or

other major surgery within 1 month of carotid stenting or endarterectomy

Carotid stenosis caused by non-atherosclerotic disease e.g. dissection,

fibromuscular disease or neck radiotherapy.

Previous carotid endarterectomy or stenting in the randomised artery

Patients in whom common carotid artery surgery is planned

Patients medically not fit for surgery

Patients who have a life expectancy of less than two years due to a pre-existing

condition, e.g. cancer

25.3.6 Non-randomised patients

An anonymised log will be kept of patients undergoing treatment for carotid stenosis by

the trial investigators but not randomised at the participating centres. Patients

undergoing stenting but not randomised should also be included on a suitable registry,

such as EUROCAST.

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25.3.7 Consent

Written witnessed, informed consent will be obtained from all patients and a copy must

be retained by the randomising centre. All patients will be provided with a written

explanation of the study.

25.3.8 Randomisation

Randomisation will be by a telephone call or fax to a computerised service provided by

the Oxford Clinical Trials Service Unit. Randomisation will be stratified by centre with

minimisation of the main risk factors and balanced between the arms. Patients who

need treatment of both carotid arteries will only be randomised for the carotid artery to

be treated first. Patients can only be randomised once.

25.3.9 Investigations before randomisation

The following investigations are required: Routine haematology (FBC, platelets), blood

biochemistry (renal function, blood sugar, cholesterol), chest x-ray, ECG, brain CT or

MRI scans. The brain scan is required to exclude other pathology, to identify existing

infarcts and to provide a baseline reference against which any subsequent infarction or

haemorrhage can be assessed. Copies of the CT or MRI scans should be sent to the

ICSS office.

25.3.10 Carotid imaging

Mandatory investigation is required for entry into the study to confirm the presence and

severity of the ipsilateral stenosis and to assess contralateral carotid disease. The

following are acceptable:

Arch arteriogram showing both carotid bifurcations

Selective catheter carotid angiography showing the randomised carotid artery

with non-invasive investigation of the contralateral carotid bifurcation

Bilateral magnetic resonance carotid angiograms together with a concordant

ultrasound scan

Bilateral spiral CT angiograms together with a concordant ultrasound scan

Bilateral duplex and Doppler ultrasound scan, only if this is standard practice to

treat on the basis of ultrasound alone in individual centres and the centre has

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been able to provide proof of the reliability of their ultrasonographic imaging

through clinical audit

The following data from the pre-randomisation imaging will be sent to the Central Office

for review:

A copy of the written reports of the studies

A film copy of the view of the vessel to be treated showing the stenosis at its

most severe

A film copy of the view of the contralateral vessel showing any stenosis at its

most severe

Velocity data from the ultrasound examination

Patients who are randomised to stenting after ultrasound or other non-invasive

investigation, in which subsequent angiography, prior to stenting, reveals one or more

exclusion criteria should be treated by surgery, if appropriate, or medical care only if

surgery is not appropriate (e.g. because the stenosis is less than 50%). These patients

will continue follow up in the trial and will be analysed on an intention to treat basis. A

similar approach should be taken to patients randomised to surgery in whom

contraindications to surgery emerge after randomisation.

25.3.11 Ultrasound

Ultrasound study of the carotid artery to be treated will be performed at or before

randomisation, at one month after treatment and then annually after randomisation in

all patients. The following information is required for each study: Peak systolic velocity

of internal carotid artery (PSV ICA), end diastolic velocity of internal carotid artery (EDV

ICA), peak systolic velocity of common carotid artery (PSV CCA). The accuracy of

individual ultrasound laboratories will be audited by comparing the pretreatment

ultrasound examination against catheter angiography films, which will be available in

patients randomised after angiography and in all the patients treated by stenting.

25.3.12 Baseline data

Baseline data collected at randomisation will include demographic data; existing

medical risk factors; neurological symptoms including an assessment of disability using

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the Modified Rankin Scale; current antiplatelet therapy and blood pressure. Films

and/or reports of pre-randomisation imaging as detailed above and in all cases the

results of Doppler ultrasound as detailed below are required to allow assessment of

any subsequent stenosis.

25.3.13 Baseline assessment

Patients will be seen by the study neurologist or physician interested in stroke prior to

randomisation to confirm suitability for the study.

25.3.14 Stenting protocol

Stenting will be carried out as soon as possible after randomisation using percutaneous

transluminal interventional techniques from the femoral, brachial or common carotid

artery by a designated interventional consultant using an appropriate stent. A cerebral

protection system should be used whenever the operator thinks one can be safely

deployed. Stents and other devices used in the trial must be CE marked and approved

by the Steering Committee. Pre-medication will be discretionary. The combination of

aspirin and clopidogrel is recommended as the antiplatelet regime of choice to cover

the period of stenting and for a minimum of 4 weeks afterwards. Intra-procedural

heparin is mandatory at a dose determined by the operator, post-procedural heparin

may be given according to clinical requirements. Patients should be monitored for

changes in their neurological status and heart rate throughout the procedure. If femoral

or brachial access is being used a long sheath introducer or a guiding catheter is

placed in the common carotid artery allowing pre-dilation and stent placement under

direct arteriographic imaging. Atropine, or a similar agent, must be administered prior to

stent deployment to counteract any effects on the carotid artery baroreceptors, which

could lead to severe bradycardia and/or asystole. Virtually all patients will require pre-

dilatation of the stenosis by balloon angioplasty prior to stent deployment. This will

minimise the embolic load caused by passage of the endoluminal stent through the

stenosis. The size of the pre-dilatation balloon will be determined by the size of the

delivery system being used. Further balloon dilation of the stent will usually be required

to ensure apposition of the stent against the arterial wall. Angiographic images

showing the stenosis at its most severe prior to stenting and the same view and any

other view that demonstrates the maximum residual stenosis after stenting must be

sent to the Central Office. Details of the procedure, including all peri-procedural

complications, drug therapy and devices used in the procedure, must be reported and

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the stenting and cerebral protection technical data sheet returned to the trial Central

Office.

25.3.15 Endarterectomy protocol

Endarterectomy is to be done as soon as possible after randomisation by a designated

consultant surgeon who has been approved by the Credentials Committee. It is to be

carried out using whichever procedures are standard at the individual centre, including

the use of local or general anaesthesia, shunts or patches as required by the operating

surgeon. Standard or eversion endarterectomy may be performed.

25.3.16 Reporting of suspected problems with surgical or stenting

techniques at individual centres

If the local investigator or other member of the team at a trial centre has concern about

the outcome of their trial procedures they should inform the ICSS trial office which will

organise a blinded assessment of the relevant outcome events. This will be submitted

by the central office to the chairman of the data monitoring committee who may

recommend further action, such as suspending randomisation at the centre. Similarly,

the database manager at the trial office will monitor outcome events and if there are

two consecutive deaths or three consecutive major events at a single centre within 30

days of treatment in the same arm of the study, then assessment of the events will be

triggered. A cumulative major event or death rate of more than 10% over 20 cases

would also trigger careful assessment of the relevant outcome events.

25.3.17 Medical treatment

All patients will receive best medical care including antiplatelet therapy or

anticoagulation (when appropriate) and control of medical risk factors such as

hypertension, smoking and hyperlipidaemia before treatment and throughout the period

of follow up.

25.3.18 Prevention of thrombosis

Therapy to prevent thrombosis during or soon after surgery or stenting will be

prescribed according to standard practice in each centre. This may include heparin,

dextran, aspirin, dipyridamole, ticlopidine, clopidogrel, or a combination of aspirin and

another antiplatelet agent. Glycoprotein IIb/IIIa antiplatelet receptor antagonists will not

be used routinely.

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25.3.19 Follow-up

Patients will be followed up by a neurologist or a physician interested in stroke at the

participating centres at 30 days after treatment, 6 months after randomisation and then

annually after randomisation. All post-procedural complications occurring within thirty

days after the procedure will be reported to the central office at the 30 day follow up. At

each visit, levels of stroke-related disability will be assessed using the modified Rankin

Scale and any relevant outcome events will be notified to the Central Office. A Doppler

ultrasound will be used to measure carotid arterial diameter to assess patency at one

month after treatment and then annually after randomisation. In addition, ultrasound re-

examination and CT or MRI scan should be performed in patients who have any

transient ischaemic events and/or stroke during follow up. The duration of follow up will

be a minimum of 5 years (or until termination of the trial if earlier). At the 5 year follow

up, patients will be asked if they are willing to continue follow up, in which case annual

follow up will continue up to a maximum of 10 years from randomisation.

25.3.20 Sample size calculations and recruitment

The planned sample size is 1500. We do not anticipate any large difference in the

principal outcome between surgery and stenting. We propose to estimate this

difference and present a confidence interval for difference in 30-day death, stroke or

myocardial infarction and for three-year survival free of disabling stroke or death. For

1500 patients, the 95% confidence interval will be the observed difference ±3.0% for

the outcome measure of 30 day stroke, myocardial infarction and death rate and ±3.3%

for the outcome measure of death or disabling stroke over three years follow up.

However, the trial will have the power to detect major differences in the risks of the two

procedures, for example if stenting proves to be much riskier than surgery or

associated with more symptomatic restenosis. The differences detectable with power

80% are 4.7% for 30 day outcome and 5.1% for survival free of disabling stroke.

Similar differences are detectable for secondary outcomes. We expect to achieve this

recruitment within 6 years.

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Principal research questions to be addressed 25.4

25.4.1 Primary analysis

What is the difference in the long-term rate of fatal or disabling stroke in any

territory of patients with severe symptomatic stenosis after randomisation to a

policy of carotid stenting compared to surgery?

25.4.2 Secondary analysis

What are the differences in mortality and morbidity within 30 days of carotid

stenting compared to surgery?

What is the rate of symptomatic and asymptomatic restenosis after carotid

stenting compared to surgery?

What are the differences in the rate of ipsilateral stroke during follow-up after

carotid stenting compared to surgery?

What is the cost-effectiveness of carotid stenting compared to surgery?

What are the risk factors for stroke within 30 days and during long term follow

up (including those related to age, gender, symptoms, imaging, centre and

technique)?

25.4.3 Outcome events

Any stroke or death

Transient ischaemic attack

Myocardial infarction within 30 days of treatment

Cranial nerve palsy within 30 days of treatment

Haematoma caused by treatment requiring surgery or transfusion or prolonging

hospital stay

Stenosis greater than 70% or occlusion during follow-up

Further treatment of the randomised artery by interventional radiology

techniques or surgery after the initial attempt

Quality of life, health status and health service costs (see paragraph below)

25.4.4 Outcome event reporting

Outcome events will be documented in detail by the investigating centre, censored

after receipt at the central office to remove clues as to the treatment received, and then

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adjudicated by an independent neurologist. Patients suffering stroke should have a CT

or MRI brain scan as soon as possible after the event. A film copy of this, together with

a film copy of the pre-randomisation scan (if done) should be submitted together with a

report of the event. The event report should include copies of discharge summaries,

death certificates and post mortem results if relevant. Deaths of UK patients will be

tracked by flagging patients against the UK Registry of Births and Deaths. Disability

after stroke and cranial nerve palsy will be assessed 30 days and six months after

treatment or onset, using the modified Rankin Scale. Duration of symptoms will be

recorded and outcome events will be classified as disabling if the Rankin score is 3 or

more at six months.

Learning curve 25.5

Carotid stenting is a new procedure, while the techniques of carotid surgery are well

established. It is likely that there will be a learning curve for carotid stenting and the

results may improve with experience during the trial. However, we believe it is better

that carotid stenting should be performed as part of a randomised clinical trial at this

stage of its development, because this will ensure careful assessment and follow up of

all patients treated in the trial and supervision from the Data Monitoring and Ethics

Committee ensures that continuing treatment with the new technique remains ethical.

The influence of the early part of the learning curve for carotid stenting will be limited by

careful training of individual interventionists. The total experience of carotid PTA and

stenting of individual interventionists will be recorded prior to entry into the trial. This

will allow the average duration of the learning curve to be analysed, taking into account

the current experience of the individual interventionists. This information may have

implications for interpretation of the results of the trial and for the future training and

supervision of the procedure. Similarly, there may be improvements in individual

surgical or anaesthetic techniques during the trial.

Effect of changes in technology during the course of the study 25.6

The field of carotid stenting is an area of fast changing technology. The protocol does

not at present specify the type or manufacturer of the stents or protection devices to be

used, but devices to be used in the trial will be CE marked and approved by the

Steering Committee who will expect a peer reviewed report of device safety. More than

one device may be recommended to allow the interventionist to tailor the choice of

stent to the individual stenosis and to use new designs of stent or protection devices if

appropriate. The protocol will not specify the technique to be used during carotid

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surgery. Decisions about the use of shunts or specific suture materials will be left to the

individual surgeon. Local or general anaesthesia will be allowed in both arms.

Technical details of surgical and stenting technique, including the manufacturer and

type of stent used, the use of local or general anaesthesia, and the use of

antithrombotic agents, will be recorded. The analysis will include a subgroup

comparison of different techniques in both arms and the data will be presented to the

DMC meetings to ensure that no one technique is significantly inferior to another.

Randomisation will use a computer program to minimise variation between centres and

over time, so that equal numbers of patients will be entered into the stenting and

surgery arms before and after any change in practice.

Health service research issues 25.7

If the trial confirms the hypothesis that carotid stenting and surgery are equivalent in

terms of the major risks of stroke and death, then the choice between the two

procedures will be determined primarily by differences between the two procedures in

other outcomes e.g. the disadvantage of a scar or cranial nerve palsy, or the effects of

surgery on health related quality of life. If these differences are minor, the choice

between the procedures will be made primarily on economic grounds. The effects of

cranial nerve palsy may be detected by a minor increase in the disability score, but it is

not easy to assess the effect of these outcomes during follow-up on clinical

examination alone. Quality of life and health status will therefore be assessed using the

EuroQol (EQ5D) questionnaire to compare patients’ feeling of well-being, health and

quality of life before and after stenting or surgery at one month, six months and annual

follow-up. The results will be analysed blind to treatment arm. The first questionnaire

will be completed at the time of randomisation and subsequent questionnaires at each

follow-up visit. The investigator performing randomisation or follow-up should ensure

the patient completes the EQ5D at the same time. The English language version of the

EQ5D has been modified to record the date on which it is completed and the patient’s

trial number. Those centres using versions in other languages should also record the

date and trial number on each completed form. If patients are too disabled to complete

the questionnaires themselves, the patient’s carer may complete them. The EQ5D

should be returned to the central office with the other trial forms.

Information on hospital resource use during the treatment and follow up, including the

type and manufacturer of the devices employed in carotid stenting procedures, will be

collected to measure treatment costs and estimate the costs of stroke and any

consequences of restenosis (e.g. re-treatment) during follow up. Unit costs will be

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obtained from a sample of representative centres. The costs of stroke caused by

treatment are a major component of the total cost of treatment, and therefore have a

major influence on cost effectiveness. As the additional length of stay in hospital

resulting from stroke largely drives these costs, the prospective collection of length of

stay data will be designed to capture the stroke-related data in addition to direct

operative stay. The economic evaluation will address cost-effectiveness and cost-utility

(cost per QALY). The latter will be estimated from patients’ responses to the EuroQol

(EQ-5D) questionnaires using the York MVH tariff. Uncertainty regarding specific

parameters within the analysis will be subjected to a sensitivity analysis, and

uncertainty around the point estimate of the cost utility ratio will be represented using

cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. To inform the economic analyses, the

preferences of potential patients and clinicians between carotid endarterectomy and

carotid stenting given various differences in outcomes will be explored using the

technique of conjoint analysis (discrete choice experiments). A sample of members of

the general population (matched to the ICSS patients) and clinicians will be asked to

complete a questionnaire after completion of randomisation, informed by the

preliminary safety results. Preliminary work, structuring and piloting the conjoint

analyses, will be undertaken earlier.

Stenosis after treatment 25.8

Patency of the carotid artery will be monitored by Doppler ultrasound at a minimum of

30 days after treatment and then annually after randomisation. Restenosis should only

be treated by further angioplasty or surgery if the patient has relevant new symptoms.

Restenosis is usually the result of smooth muscle hypertrophy or neo-intimal

hyperplasia, rather than recurrence of atherosclerosis and hence may not cause

embolic stroke. Asymptomatic restenosis will not be an indication to retreat the lesion

because the risk of disabling symptoms after restenosis is not known.

Crossovers 25.9

Crossovers before any attempt to treat the randomised artery by the allocated

treatment will be avoided unless clinically essential, because the trial data will be

analysed by intention to treat. Patients who are randomised to stenting after ultrasound

or other non-invasive investigation, in whom subsequent angiography prior to stenting

reveals one or more exclusion criteria, should be treated by surgery, if appropriate, or

medical care only if surgery is not appropriate (e.g. because the stenosis is less than

50%). These patients will continue follow up in the trial and will be analysed on an

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intention-to-treat basis. A similar approach should be taken to patients randomised to

surgery in whom contraindications to surgery emerge after randomisation. Patient

refusal of the treatment to which they are randomised can be minimised by careful

consent. Patients requiring re-treatment because of further symptoms should be re-

treated with whichever treatment is most appropriate. This is also the case if the non-

randomised carotid artery requires treatment. Patients in whom an attempt at stenting

fails may proceed to early surgery if appropriate and vice versa.

Data analysis 25.10

The data will be analysed by intention to treat using standard statistical tests by the trial

statistician. The analyses will compare the treatment groups with respect to the length

of time before treatment failure (i.e. occurrence of an outcome event) by means of the

Mantel-Haenszel chi-squared test and Kaplan-Meier survival curves. Secondary

analysis will compare the proportions of outcome events within 30 days of treatment.

All analyses will be adjusted for centre and predetermined risk factors. Subgroup

analyses will examine risk factors for outcome events and will examine the influence of

different devices, surgical techniques and experience within the trial. Results at

probationary centres will be analysed separately. The results of any interim data

analysis will remain confidential to the trial statistician and Data Monitoring Committee

until after completion or early discontinuation of the trial. Investigators and the Steering

Committee will remain blind until such point.

Publication 25.11

Publication of the results of ICSS will be prepared by the Central Office and circulated

to participating centres for comment prior to submission of the manuscript for

publication on behalf of all the ICSS collaborators.

Ethical Committee approval 25.12

Multicentre Research Ethics Committee approval will be sought in the UK. In addition,

individual centres are expected to obtain local ethical committee approval for the study.

Data Monitoring Committee 25.13

The safety aspects of the trial will be overseen by a Data Monitoring Committee

consisting of an independent neurologist, medical statistician, surgeon and

interventionist. The progress of the study will be assessed at regular intervals

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determined by the Data Monitoring Committee. During the period of intake to the study,

interim analyses of mortality and of any other information that is available on major

endpoints (including serious adverse events believed to be due to treatment) will be

supplied, in strict confidence, to the chairman of the Data Monitoring Committee, along

with any other analyses that the Committee may request. In the light of these analyses,

the Data Monitoring Committee will advise the chairman of the Steering Committee if,

in their view, the randomised comparisons in ICSS have provided both (i) "proof

beyond reasonable doubt" that for all, or for some, specific types of patients, one

particular treatment is clearly indicated or clearly contraindicated in terms of a net

difference in outcome, and (ii) evidence that might reasonably be expected to influence

materially patient management. Appropriate criteria of proof beyond reasonable doubt

cannot be specified precisely, but a difference of at least 3 standard deviations in an

interim analysis of a major endpoint may be needed to justify halting, or modifying, the

study prematurely. This criterion has the practical advantage that the number of interim

analyses is of little importance.

Steering Committee 25.14

A Steering Committee, consisting of individuals participating in and independent of the

trial with experience in stroke medicine, neurology, vascular surgery, vascular

radiology, interventional neuroradiology, health economics, clinical trials and statistics

will oversee the management of the trial.

Trial organisation 25.15

The study will be organised on behalf of the collaborators by the central office, located

at the UCL Institute of Neurology in London. The office will be responsible for protocol

design, data collection and management, and analysis of the results in consultation

with the Steering and Data Monitoring Committees, but will consult with the

collaborators at an annual meeting and at other times as necessary. Communication

with investigators will also take place via a regular newsletter and the trial website.

25.15.1 Payments to centres

While funding is available, the Lead Institution (UCL Institute of Neurology, London) will

pay the participating centres a one-off payment of £100 for each patient randomised

patient for whom correctly filled-out randomisation, technical data and one month

follow-up forms have been received. Participating centres must invoice to the Lead

Institution within 6 months of receipt of this revised protocol and thereafter 6-monthly in

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arrears. The Lead Centre may vary or terminate such payments in the future in

accordance with budgetary needs and will inform the participating centre of such

changes as they occur.

25.15.2 Indemnity

ICSS is an academic trial performed as a collaborative effort for the benefit of patients,

and is not performed for, or on behalf of, an industry sponsor. The trial compares two

existing forms of treatment currently used in many hospitals. The various devices

approved for use in the trial are not investigational devices and are required by the

protocol to be marketed and already in use in the carotid artery as recognised by the

CE mark. Hence, the trial is not an industry sponsored test of a new treatment with

unknown hazards. The trial protocol anticipates that some patients may be harmed

inadvertently as a result of treatment in the trial. Indeed, the determination of the rate of

these adverse outcome events is a major aim of the trial. However, we believe that the

risks of these adverse events will be outweighed by the benefits of treatment in either

arm of the trial. The trial protocol does not subject patients to hazards that the patient

would not have encountered if they had received the trial treatments outside the

context of the trial in routine practice. Hence, the organisers of the trial cannot take

responsibility for any harm occurring to patients as a result of partaking in the trial.

Individual investigators and hospitals are required to take responsibility for the

occurrence of any adverse events in the same way as they would do if the treatments

were performed outside the trial.

25.15.3 Website

The trial website contains updated information about the trial together with

downloadable copies of the protocol, trial data collection forms, newsletters and contact

information. The names of the collaborating centres will be included on the website.

The website address is http://www.cavatas.com and all the pages are accessible to the

public, patients and collaborators alike without a password. At present, the data

collection forms cannot be completed on line.

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26. Appendix V – ICSS-MRI Substudy protocol

Symptomatic and asymptomatic ischaemic and haemorrhagic brain injury following

protected and unprotected stenting versus endarterectomy in the International Carotid

Stenting Study – the ICSS-MRI Substudy.

Summary 26.1

26.1.1 Background and aim

Diffusion weighted imaging (DWI) – a modern magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)

technique – may detect ischaemic brain lesions after carotid interventions in patients

who do not experience symptoms. Previous studies showed that DWI lesions are found

more frequently after endarterectomy than after stenting of carotid stenosis, and more

frequently after stenting without the use of cerebral protection devices than after

protected stenting. However, methodological shortcomings of those non-randomised

studies may account for the observed differences. Moreover, it is not clear how

ischaemic lesions on DWI relate to the risk of clinically apparent cerebrovascular

events (stroke or TIA) associated with the intervention. About one in ten strokes

occurring as a complication of carotid interventions is caused by intracerebral

haemorrhage (ICH), but asymptomatic ICH after carotid interventions has never been

assessed. We therefore aim to study the frequency and significance of symptomatic

and asymptomatic ischaemic and haemorrhagic brain injury in protected and

unprotected stenting and endarterectomy in a randomised trial.

26.1.2 Primary objective

To compare the rate of ischaemic brain injury detectable on MRI after treatment

of symptomatic carotid stenosis by stenting or endarterectomy

26.1.3 Secondary objectives

To test for an interaction between the use of cerebral protection devices and

ischaemic brain injury associated with stenting

To compare the rate of haemorrhagic brain injury detectable on MRI after

treatment of symptomatic carotid stenosis by stenting or endarterectomy

To evaluate the usefulness of ischaemic and haemorrhagic brain lesions visible

on MRI as surrogate markers of the procedural risk of carotid interventions

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Methods 26.2

Multicentre prospective MRI substudy of the International Carotid Stenting Study

(ICSS). Multimodal MRI to detect ischaemic and haemorrhagic brain injury will be

performed at 3 time points in patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis randomised to

stenting or endarterectomy in ICSS: 1-3 days before, 1-3 days after and again 30±3

days after intervention.

Background and aim 26.3

Carotid stenting has emerged as a treatment alternative to endarterectomy in patients

with symptomatic carotid stenosis. Cerebral protection devices are used in stenting

with the aim of reducing the risk of plaque embolisation during the procedure. Recently

completed randomised trials comparing the safety of stenting and endarterectomy

yielded conflicting results [79] [77]. Concern that stenting without cerebral protection

may be associated with an increased risk of stroke led to the abandonment of

unprotected procedures in one trial [63] but in another trial, there was no difference in

the risk of stenting with and without protection [77]. Although clear evidence that

cerebral protection enhances treatment safety is lacking [253], protection devices are

widely used today, significantly contributing to the cost of carotid stenting.

Until clinical trials investigating the benefit of cerebral protection devices can be

realised, surrogate markers of brain injury may provide further insights into the risk of

protected and unprotected stenting in comparison to endarterectomy. Diffusion

weighted imaging (DWI), a modern magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) technique, may

show ischaemic lesions after carotid interventions even in patients who do not

experience symptoms [214]. In previous studies new ischaemic lesions on DWI were

detected more frequently after stenting than after endarterectomy [254] [255] [256]

[257] [258] [259] [260]. DWI lesions were also more frequent after unprotected stenting

than after protected stenting [215] [261]. However, selection bias and the use of

historical controls may be accountable for the observed differences in these non-

randomised comparisons. Moreover, it is not clear how ischaemic lesions on DWI

relate to the risk of clinically apparent cerebrovascular events (stroke or TIA)

associated with the intervention. Larger studies with randomised treatment allocation

are needed to gain further insight into the significance of asymptomatic DWI lesions

and their potential role as surrogate markers of treatment risk.

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About one in ten strokes occurring as a complication of carotid interventions is caused

by intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH). A special MRI technique (so-called gradient echo

imaging) allows the detection of small intracerebral bleedings, but has never been

applied to detect ICH after carotid interventions. Asymptomatic ICH may be an

expression of subclinical reperfusion damage following carotid revascularisation.

Thus, there is a clear need to study symptomatic and asymptomatic ischaemic and

haemorrhagic brain injury in protected and unprotected stenting and endarterectomy in

a randomised trial.

Objectives 26.4

The primary objective of this substudy is to compare the risk of ischaemic brain injury

assessed on MRI in patients with symptomatic carotid artery stenosis undergoing

stenting in comparison to those undergoing endarterectomy.

Secondary objectives are: to assess the effect of protection devices on the risk of

ischaemic brain injury associated with stenting, to compare the risk of haemorrhagic

brain injury assessed on MRI in stenting compared to endarterectomy, and to gain

further insight into the usefulness of ischaemic and haemorrhagic brain lesions on MRI

as surrogate markers of the risk of carotid interventions.

Study design 26.5

This project is an MRI-based substudy of a multicentre randomised trial known as the

International Carotid Stenting Study [81], which is comparing the risks and benefits of

stenting and endarterectomy of symptomatic carotid stenosis using clinical endpoints,

e.g. stroke and death.

The ICSS-MRI Substudy allows a randomised comparison of the procedural risk of

symptomatic and asymptomatic ischaemic and haemorrhagic brain injury visible on

MRI between stenting and endarterectomy. The use of cerebral protection devices in

patients undergoing stenting is not subject to randomisation in ICSS. However, the

participating centres systematically use either protected or unprotected stenting. The

risk of brain injury associated with either stenting technique can therefore be compared

to a randomised control group of patients undergoing endarterectomy.

Outcome measures and analyses are defined as follows:

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26.5.1 Primary outcome measure

Rate of symptomatic and asymptomatic ischaemic brain injury detectable on

MRI after endarterectomy and stenting

26.5.2 Secondary analyses

Interaction between the use of protection devices and ischaemic brain injury in

patients undergoing stenting

Rate of symptomatic and asymptomatic haemorrhagic brain injury detectable on

MRI after endarterectomy and stenting

Relation of brain injury on MRI to risk of stroke during procedure and follow-up

26.5.3 Subject selection

Inclusion criteria

Patients are eligible to participate in the ICSS-MRI Substudy if they are enrolled in the

ICSS trial and separately provide written informed consent to undergo three MRI

exams. Detailed inclusion and exclusion criteria for ICSS are provided elsewhere [81].

In short, patients with recently symptomatic ≥50% carotid stenosis who are equally

suitable for endarterectomy and stenting are eligible for enrolment in ICSS.

Exclusion criteria

Patients with contraindications to MRI, e.g. pacemakers, metallic implants, and

claustrophobia, are excluded from the ICSS-MRI Substudy.

26.5.4 MRI protocol

Patients enrolled in the ICSS-MRI Substudy will undergo three MRI investigations, 1-3

days before, 1-3 days after and 30±3 days after the intervention. The following

sequences will be performed in all three investigations:

Diffusion weighted imaging (DWI) to detect acute ischaemic brain injury

associated with the procedure

Gradient echo T2*-weighted sequences to detect haemorrhagic brain injury

associated with the procedure

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T1-weighted, T2-weighted and fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR)

sequences will be used to assess whether acute brain lesions detected on DWI

after the procedure lead to permanent scarring at 1 month

26.5.5 Data acquisition

Baseline data (such as age, gender, medical risk factors, degree of carotid stenosis,

etc.) will be collected as part of ICSS.

Two researchers will independently score the presence, size and location (vascular

territory) of ischaemic and haemorrhagic lesions on the MRI scans. A third researcher

will review the scans in case of disagreement. The scans will be reported and scored

blind to patient identifiers, treatment, date and time of the scans.

Patients will be clinically examined by a neurologist at the time of MRI examination and

will be followed up after treatment as part of ICSS to determine outcome events

including transient ischaemic attack, stroke, myocardial infarction and death.

26.5.6 Statistical considerations

Statistical analysis

The rates of ischaemic and haemorrhagic brain lesions will be compared between

patients undergoing endarterectomy and stenting using chi-squared and Fisher’s exact

tests. Significance will be declared at p<0.05.

Sample size calculation

Power calculations are based on the primary outcome measure. The two largest series

reported new ischaemic lesions on DWI after carotid endarterectomy in 17% and 34%

of patients respectively [262]. If a rate of new DWI lesions after endarterectomy of 25%

is assumed, a total sample size of 200 patients would have a 90% power to detect a

twofold increase in the DWI lesion rate associated with carotid stenting. Testing the

interaction between the use of cerebral protection devices and the rate of DWI lesions

after stenting would have less power. 126 patients have been enrolled in the ICSS-MRI

Substudy from its initiation in 2004 until July 2007 in two participating centres (Utrecht

and Basel). The projected number of enrolled patients at the end of the ICSS

randomisation period in those centres is 170. The target population of 200 could be

reached with a contribution of 30 patients enrolled in ICSS centres in the UK.

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26.5.7 Withdrawal of consent

Subjects enrolled in the ICSS-MRI Substudy can withdraw their consent at any time

during the substudy. This will not affect their enrolment in ICSS or the standard of care

they receive.