the scottish longitudinal study a new source for scottish research paul boyle
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: The Scottish Longitudinal Study A New Source for Scottish Research Paul Boyle](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649eec5503460f94bfe3e5/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The Scottish Longitudinal StudyA New Source for Scottish Research
Paul Boyle
![Page 2: The Scottish Longitudinal Study A New Source for Scottish Research Paul Boyle](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649eec5503460f94bfe3e5/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
The (Scottish) Longitudinal Study The England and Wales Longitudinal
Study (LS) established following 1971 Census• To study occupational mortality and fertility• Scotland included originally• Withdrew for funding / sample size reasons• Original files destroyed
Re-establishing the SLS• Funded by SHEFC and CSO (£1.5 million)• Working in close collaboration with GRO(S)• Borrowing as much as possible from ONS
![Page 3: The Scottish Longitudinal Study A New Source for Scottish Research Paul Boyle](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649eec5503460f94bfe3e5/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
People• Director: Paul Boyle• Project Manager (Technical): Lin Hattersley• Project Manager (Staff): Katherine Chisholm• Programmer: Zengyi Huang• Programmer: Joan Nolan• 20 form pickers / clerical assistants• Research Fellow (Andy Cullis)• Research Fellow (Vernon Gayle)
![Page 4: The Scottish Longitudinal Study A New Source for Scottish Research Paul Boyle](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649eec5503460f94bfe3e5/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Management committee• Paul Boyle (University of St Andrews)• Allan Findlay (University of Dundee)• Robin Flowerdew (University of St
Andrews)• Sally Macintyre (University of Glasgow)• Steve Platt (University of Edinburgh)
![Page 5: The Scottish Longitudinal Study A New Source for Scottish Research Paul Boyle](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649eec5503460f94bfe3e5/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Steering committee• David Orr (GROS)• Paul Boyle (SLS)• Ian Mate (GROS)• Muriel Douglas (NHSCR)• Lin Hattersley (SLS)• Rod Muir (ISD, PAC)• Louisa Blackwell (ONS)
• Secretary: Katherine Chisholm (SLS)
![Page 6: The Scottish Longitudinal Study A New Source for Scottish Research Paul Boyle](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649eec5503460f94bfe3e5/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
What is the SLS?
Provides linked data from the Scottish Census and administrative records
Sampling based on 20 ‘semi-random’ birthdays
Initial sample drawn from the 1991 Census
Similar sample drawn from 2001 Census
![Page 7: The Scottish Longitudinal Study A New Source for Scottish Research Paul Boyle](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649eec5503460f94bfe3e5/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Data sources
Vital statistics• Live births• Stillbirths• Infant mortality• Deaths• Widow(er)hoods• Marriages
Health data• Cancer registrations
Census• 1991 Census• 2001 Census• Including data on occupation,
economic activity, housing, ethnicity, age, sex, marital status, health, education, religion etc.
Population data• Immigration• Emigration
![Page 8: The Scottish Longitudinal Study A New Source for Scottish Research Paul Boyle](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649eec5503460f94bfe3e5/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Data sources
Vital statistics• Live births• Stillbirths• Infant mortality• Deaths• Widow(er)hoods• Marriages
Health data• Cancer registrations• Hospital admissions
Census• 1991 Census• 2001 Census• Including data on occupation,
economic activity, housing, ethnicity, age, sex, marital status, health, education, religion etc.
Population data• Immigration• Emigration
![Page 9: The Scottish Longitudinal Study A New Source for Scottish Research Paul Boyle](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649eec5503460f94bfe3e5/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
![Page 10: The Scottish Longitudinal Study A New Source for Scottish Research Paul Boyle](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649eec5503460f94bfe3e5/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
![Page 11: The Scottish Longitudinal Study A New Source for Scottish Research Paul Boyle](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649eec5503460f94bfe3e5/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Strengths
Sample size much larger than most surveys• BHPS has ~10,000 people in GB• SLS has ~278,000 members + ~518,000
household members in Scotland (1991) The census is compulsory Linkage and trace rates are high Includes those in communal establishments Ability to link hospital admissions data to
socio-economic characteristics
![Page 12: The Scottish Longitudinal Study A New Source for Scottish Research Paul Boyle](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649eec5503460f94bfe3e5/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Weaknesses
Restricted range of variables • Smoking• Income
Census information only collected every decade
Not possible to return to the sample to ask extra questions
The data are highly confidential
![Page 13: The Scottish Longitudinal Study A New Source for Scottish Research Paul Boyle](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649eec5503460f94bfe3e5/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
How does the SLS differ from the LS? Sample percentage larger (5.5% vs 1%) 20 SLS birthdays, but includes the four LS
birthdays Fewer censuses captured
• SLS 1991 & 2001 (currently planned)• LS 1971, 1981, 1991, 2001
Some variables in the LS not coded in the SLS• e.g. 1991 place of work
Some variables in the SLS not coded in the LS• e.g. hospital admissions and marriages
The SLS is cheaper!
![Page 14: The Scottish Longitudinal Study A New Source for Scottish Research Paul Boyle](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649eec5503460f94bfe3e5/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
How far have we got? Identification of 1991 sample
• Electronic records extracted from 1991 Census• Forms have been ‘picked’• Flagging data passed to NHSCR
Coding 1991 ‘difficult to code’ information• Only originally coded for 10% Census• Designed interface for data input• Implementing occupation and industry coding
software• 62,000 basic coding completed• 5,000 occupation and industry coding completed
Programming derived variables
![Page 15: The Scottish Longitudinal Study A New Source for Scottish Research Paul Boyle](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649eec5503460f94bfe3e5/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Linkage and ‘flagging’ through NHSCR• 278,359 have been actioned • 241,591 have been flagged • 2,316 of these are new births• 611 are Scottish duplicates • 10,258 have been sent to CR Southport to
flag on the English/Welsh database• 12 are English duplicates • 3,268 are dummy records• 22,583 are in the process of being actioned
following further patient information • 36 are no trace
![Page 16: The Scottish Longitudinal Study A New Source for Scottish Research Paul Boyle](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649eec5503460f94bfe3e5/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Vital statistics• Specifications completed• 1991 test data received
2001 Census information• Commissioned ‘top up’ coding of 65-74 year olds and
10-year occupational coding• Received pre-one number census download, to allow
flagging of imputed data• Received post-one number census download, which
includes imputed characteristics
Hope to ‘complete’ the job in 2004
![Page 17: The Scottish Longitudinal Study A New Source for Scottish Research Paul Boyle](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649eec5503460f94bfe3e5/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Potential uses of the SLS
Source data for academic research / social policy / government departments etc.
Analysis of successive census data• The links between social and geographical
mobility• The changing geographical distribution of
the ageing population• Work patterns of men and women through
the lifecourse
![Page 18: The Scottish Longitudinal Study A New Source for Scottish Research Paul Boyle](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649eec5503460f94bfe3e5/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Analysis of successive event/health data• Studies of changes in birth spacing• Associations between fertility and later
diseases• The changing importance of different cancers
Analysis of census and event/health data• Occupational mortality and morbidity• Economic status and diabetes• Socio-economic factors and teenage pregnancy• Marital status differences in self-reported illness• Survival analysis of cancer by area deprivation
and occupation• Housing tenure and respiratory disease
![Page 19: The Scottish Longitudinal Study A New Source for Scottish Research Paul Boyle](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649eec5503460f94bfe3e5/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Why are Scotland’s fertility rates significantly lower than the rates in the rest of Britain?
How do in-migrants fare after arrival in Scotland? Are older people becoming healthier in Scotland? Are health inequalities widening between the
better and worse off in Scotland? Given that Scotland has some of the highest lung
cancer rates in the world, what are the characteristics of those who succumb to the disease?
Do unemployed people in Scotland ‘get on their bikes’ and move to places where unemployment rates are low, or not?
![Page 20: The Scottish Longitudinal Study A New Source for Scottish Research Paul Boyle](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649eec5503460f94bfe3e5/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Accessing the SLS
A culture of data sharing The data will be kept in a ‘secure environment’ A team will be established to provide access to
the data A ‘data dictionary’ will be released once the
dataset is completed Researchers will not receive individual-level
SLS data directly Data will only be released as tabulations,
statistical summaries or aggregated data In-house ‘safe-setting’ modelling of individual-
level data (by support team)
![Page 21: The Scottish Longitudinal Study A New Source for Scottish Research Paul Boyle](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649eec5503460f94bfe3e5/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
1991 deprivation in Scotland compared to England & Wales
Why does Scotland need the SLS?
![Page 22: The Scottish Longitudinal Study A New Source for Scottish Research Paul Boyle](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649eec5503460f94bfe3e5/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
1991 deprivation census variables in Scotland and England & Wales
![Page 23: The Scottish Longitudinal Study A New Source for Scottish Research Paul Boyle](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649eec5503460f94bfe3e5/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
1996 age-standardised all cause mortality per 100,000 in Europe
![Page 24: The Scottish Longitudinal Study A New Source for Scottish Research Paul Boyle](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649eec5503460f94bfe3e5/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
1996 age-standardised mortality for all malignant neoplasms per 100,000 in Europe
![Page 25: The Scottish Longitudinal Study A New Source for Scottish Research Paul Boyle](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649eec5503460f94bfe3e5/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
1996 age-standardised mortality for malignant neoplasm of the trachea, bronchus and lung per 100,000 in Europe
![Page 26: The Scottish Longitudinal Study A New Source for Scottish Research Paul Boyle](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649eec5503460f94bfe3e5/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Brief examples of LS research
Does migration exaggerate the relationship between deprivation and self-reported illness?• Cross-sectional studies assume deprivation influences
health outcomes• However, people move around• Migration is selective, not random• Health may influence migration• Are the ill more likely to move towards deprived
places, and the well to move away from them?
Norman P, Boyle PJ and Rees P (forthcoming) Selective migration, health and deprivation: a longitudinal analysis Social Science and Medicine
![Page 27: The Scottish Longitudinal Study A New Source for Scottish Research Paul Boyle](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649eec5503460f94bfe3e5/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Age distribution of cohorts 1971, 1981 and 1991
![Page 28: The Scottish Longitudinal Study A New Source for Scottish Research Paul Boyle](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649eec5503460f94bfe3e5/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
SIRs 1991
![Page 29: The Scottish Longitudinal Study A New Source for Scottish Research Paul Boyle](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649eec5503460f94bfe3e5/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
SIRs 1991SIRs 1971
![Page 30: The Scottish Longitudinal Study A New Source for Scottish Research Paul Boyle](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649eec5503460f94bfe3e5/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Other related activities
Adding local-area geographical data to longitudinal datasets (ESRC)• Ideally small area information would be available• Raises disclosure risk and confidentiality problems• A strategy for adding geographical variables /
identifiers which does not cause disclosure problems
Training in longitudinal methods for the social sciences (ESRC)• Collaborative project with the University of Stirling• Integrated programme of training activities• Traditional training and distance learning package
![Page 31: The Scottish Longitudinal Study A New Source for Scottish Research Paul Boyle](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649eec5503460f94bfe3e5/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
The future…?
Linkage of additional data into the SLS• Historical IQ tests?• Benefits data?• Educational data?
New forms of data access• Web-based project design• Teaching package with a single dataset
![Page 32: The Scottish Longitudinal Study A New Source for Scottish Research Paul Boyle](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649eec5503460f94bfe3e5/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
British LS (BLS)• Matching variables• Creation of derived variables
Future funding• We only have resources to create the
database• Research and technical support funding will
be required• Bid currently being considered by ESRC /
MRC / Scottish Executive• Research group will provide longitudinal
analysis support