the sdg’s, domestic resource mobilization and the poor · the sdg’s, domestic resource...
TRANSCRIPT
TheSDG’s,DomesticResourceMobilizationandthePoor
NoraLustigTulaneUniversityCGDandIAD
“Strategiesforeradicatingpovertytoachievesustainabledevelopmentforall”
UnitedNationsHeadquarters▪ NewYorkJune1-3,2016
• OnekeyfactortoachievingtheSDGswillbetheavailabilityoffiscalresourcestodeliverthefloorsinsocialprotection,socialservicesandinfrastructureembeddedintheSDGs
• Asignificantportionoftheseresourcesisexpectedtocomefromdomesticsourcesindevelopingcountriesthemselves
• Asistypicalwiththeseexercisesdesignedtoidentifyprioritiesandcommitmentswhichthegreatmajorityofcountriesendorse, theproposalsshyawayfromacknowledgingthatgoalshavetrade-offs
• Inparticular,thatraisingadditionalrevenuesdomestically(i.e.,raisingtaxes)forinfrastructure,protectingtheenvironmentorsocialservicesmayleaveasignificantportionofthepoorwithlesscashtobuyfoodandotheressentialgoods
2
• Whatistheextentoftax-basedredistributionacrosslowandmiddle-incomecountries?
• Towhatextentdofiscalsystemsleavethepoorworseoffintermsofconsumptionofprivategoodsandservices?
• Howfrequentlyfiscalsystemsmaybeinequalityreducingbutatthesametimeleavethepoorworseoffintermsoftheirpurchasingpowerofprivategoodsandservices?
3
• Empiricalresultsfor25countriesbasedonfiscalincidencestudiesfromtheCommitmenttoEquityInstituteforaround2010– Twolow-incomecountries:Ethiopia (Hilletal.,2016)andTanzania
(Youngeretal.,2016)– Ninelowermiddle-incomecountries:Armenia (YoungerandKhachatryan,
2016),Bolivia (Paz-Arauco etal.,2014),ElSalvador (Beneke,Lustig andOliva,2014),Georgia (Cancho andBondarenko,2016),Ghana (Youngeretal.,2015),Guatemala (Cabrera,Lustig andMoran,2015),Honduras(Castañeda andEspino,2015),Indonesia (Afkar etal.,2016),andSriLanka(Arunatilake etal.,2016)
– Tenuppermiddle-incomecountries:Brazil (HigginsandPereira,2014),Colombia (Lustig andMelendez,2016),CostaRica (Sauma andTrejos,2014),DominicanRepublic (Aristy-Escuder etal.,2016),Ecuador (Llerenaetal.,2015),Jordan (Alam etal.,2016),Mexico (Scott,2014),Peru(Jaramillo,2014),SouthAfrica (Inchauste etal.,2016),andTunisia(Shimeles etal.,2016)
– Fourhigh-incomecountries:Argentina (Rossignolo,2016),Chile(Martinez-Aguilaretal.,2016),Russia (Lopez-Calva etal.,2016),andUruguay (Bucheli etal.,2014). 4
CEQAssessment:Method• Comprehensivestandardfiscalincidenceanalysisofcurrent
systems:directpersonalandindirecttaxes(nocorporatetaxes);cashandin-kindtransfers(publicservices);indirectsubsidies
• Harmonizeddefinitionsandmethodologicalapproachestofacilitatecross-countrycomparisons
• Usesincome/consumptionpercapitaasthewelfareindicator• Allocatorsvary=>fulltransparencyinthemethodusedfor
eachcategory,taxshiftingassumptions,taxevasion• Secondarysourcesareusedtoaminimum
5
Higgins and Lustig. “Analyzing the Impact of Taxes, Transfers, and Subs idies on Inequality and Poverty.” and “The Commitment to Equity (CEQ)Assessment: Indicators.” Chapters 1 and 3 (respectively) in Lustig (editor) Commitment to Equity Handbook. A Guide to Estimating the Impact of FiscalPolicy on Inequality and Poverty, Tulane University and the World Bank, Fall 2016.
CEQAssessment:FiscalInterventions• Currentlyincluded:
– Directtaxes– Directcashtransfers– Non-cashdirecttransferssuchasschooluniformsandbreakfast
– Contributionstopensionsandsocialinsurancesystems– Indirecttaxesonconsumption– Indirectsubsidies– In-kindtransferssuchasspendingoneducationandhealth
• Workingon:– Corporatetaxes
6Higgins and Lustig. “Analyzing the Impact of Taxes, Transfers, and Subs idies on Inequality and Poverty.” and “The Commitment to Equity (CEQ)Assessment: Indicators.” Chapters 1 and 3 (respectively) in Lustig (editor) Commitment to Equity Handbook. A Guide to Estimating the Impact of FiscalPolicy on Inequality and Poverty, Tulane University and the World Bank, Fall 2016.
MARKETINCOME
DISPOSABLEINCOME
PLUSDIRECTTRANSFERSMINUSDIRECTTAXES
PLUSINDIRECTSUBSIDIESMINUSINDIRECTTAXES
CONSUMABLEINCOME
PLUSMONETIZEDVALUEOFPUBLICSERVICES:EDUCATION&HEALTH
FINALINCOME
CEQAssessment: IncomeConcepts
7
Higgins and Lustig. “Analyzing the Impact of Taxes,Transfers, and Subsidies on Inequality and Poverty.”in Lustig (editor) Commitment to Equity Handbook.A Guide to Estimating the Impact of Fiscal Policy onInequality and Poverty, Tulane University and theWorld Bank, Fall 2016.
FiscalIncidenceinCEQAssessments§ Accountingapproach
• nobehavioralresponses• nogeneralequilibriumeffectsand• nointertemporal effects• butitincorporatesassumptionstoobtaineconomicincidence(notstatutory)
§ Point-in-time§ Mainlyaverageincidence;afewcaseswithmarginal
incidence
8
Higgins and Lustig. “Analyzing the Impact of Taxes, Transfers, and Subs idies on Inequality and Poverty.” and “The Commitment to Equity (CEQ)Assessment: Indicators.” Chapters 1 and 3 (respectively) in Lustig (editor) Commitment to Equity Handbook. A Guide to Estimating the Impact of FiscalPolicy on Inequality and Poverty, Tulane University and the World Bank, Fall 2016.
Monetizingin-kindtransfers§ Incidenceofpublicspendingoneducationandhealthfollowedso-
called“benefitorexpenditureincidence”orthe“governmentcost”approach.
§ Inessence,weuseperbeneficiaryinputcostsobtainedfromadministrativedataasthemeasureofaveragebenefits.
§ Thisapproachamountstoaskingthefollowingquestion:Ø Howmuchwouldtheincomeofahouseholdhavetobe
increasedifithadtopayforthefreeorsubsidizedpublicserviceatthefullcosttothegovernment?
9
Higgins and Lustig. “Analyzing the Impact of Taxes, Transfers, and Subs idies on Inequality and Poverty.” and “The Commitment to Equity (CEQ)Assessment: Indicators.” Chapters 1 and 3 (respectively) in Lustig (editor) Commitment to Equity Handbook. A Guide to Estimating the Impact of FiscalPolicy on Inequality and Poverty, Tulane University and the World Bank, Fall 2016.
10
www.commitmentoequity.org
www.commitmentoequity.org
Threemainmessagesfromtheory1.Analyzingthetaxsidewithoutthespendingside,orviceversa,isuseless
Ø Taxescanbeunequalizingbutspendingsoequalizingthattheunequalizing effectoftaxesismorethancompensated
Ø Taxescanberegressivebutwhencombinedwithtransfersmakethesystemmoreequalizingthanwithouttheregressivetaxes(Lambert,2001)
Ø Transferscanbeequalizingbutwhencombinedwithtaxes,povertycanbehigher
11
Enami,Lustig andAranda.“AnalyticalFoundations:MeasuringtheImpactofFiscalPolicyonInequalityandPoverty.”Chapter4inLustig (editor) CommitmenttoEquityHandbook.AGuidetoEstimating theImpactofFiscalPolicy onInequality andPoverty, TulaneUniversityandtheWorldBank,Fall2016.
2.AnalyzingtheimpactoninequalityonlycanbemisleadingØ Fiscalsystemscanbeequalizingbutpovertyincreasing
3.AnalyzingtheimpactontraditionalpovertyindicatorscanbemisleadingØ Fiscalsystemscanshowareductioninpoverty
(headcountratio,gaporsquaredgap)andyetasubstantialshareofthepoorcouldhavebeenimpoverishedbythecombinedeffectoftaxesandtransfers
12
Enami,Lustig andAranda.“AnalyticalFoundations:MeasuringtheImpactofFiscalPolicyonInequalityandPoverty.”Chapter4inLustig (editor) CommitmenttoEquityHandbook.AGuidetoEstimating theImpactofFiscalPolicy onInequality andPoverty, TulaneUniversityandtheWorldBank,Fall2016.
DomesticResourceMobilizationandthePoor
Whatistheextentoftax-basedredistributionacrosslowandmiddle-incomecountries?
Moresocialspending,moreredistribution(Redistributiveeffect:reductioninGinipointsinx-axis)
14
ARG
ARM BOL
BRA
CHLCOL
CRI
DOMECU
SLV
GHAGTM
HNDIND
JOR
MEX
PER
RUS
ZAF
LKA
TZA
TUN
URY
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Red
istr
ibut
ive
effe
ct
Social spending
Lustig, N. “Fiscal Redistribution and Poverty Reduction in Low and Middle Income Countries.” Chapter 5 in Lustig (editor) Commitment to Equity Handbook. A Guide toEstimating the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Inequality andPoverty,Tulane University and the World Bank, Fall 2016.
15
ARM
BOL
BRA
CHL
COL
CRI
ECUSLV
ETH
GEO
GHA
GTM
HND
IND
JOR
MEXPER
DOM
RUS
ZAF
LKA
TZA
TUN
URY
ARM
BOL
BRA
CHLCOL
CRI
ECUSLVETHGEO
GHAGTM
HND
IND
JOR MEX
PER DOM
RUS
ZAF
LKATZA
TUN
URY
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000GNI per capita (2011 PPP)
Primary spending/GDP Social spending/GDP
Linear (Primary spending/GDP) Linear (Social spending/GDP)
Primaryandsocialspending/GDPvs.GNIpercapita
Lustig, N. “Fiscal Redistribution and Poverty Reduction in Low and Middle Income Countries.” Chapter 5 in Lustig (editor) Commitment to Equity Handbook. A Guide toEstimating the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Inequality andPoverty,Tulane University and the World Bank, Fall 2016.
16
ARM
BOL
BRA
CHL
COL
CRI
DOMECUSLV
ETH
GEO
GHA
GTM
HND
INDJOR
MEX
PER
RUS
ZAF
LKA
TZA TUN
URY
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000GNI per capita (2011 PPP)
Education/GDP Linear (Education/GDP)Lustig, N. “Fiscal Redistribution and Poverty Reduction in Low and Middle Income Countries.” Chapter 5 in Lustig (editor) Commitment to Equity Handbook. A Guide toEstimating the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Inequality andPoverty,Tulane University and the World Bank, Fall 2016.
Educationspending/GDPvs.GNIpercapita
Healthspending/GDPvs.GNIpercapita
17
ARM
BOL
BRA
CHL
COL
CRI
DOM
ECU
SLV
ETH
GEOGHAGTM
HND
IND
JOR MEXPER
RUS
ZAF
LKATZATUN
URY
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000GNI per capita (2011 PPP)
Health/GDP Linear (Health/GDP)
Lustig, N. “Fiscal Redistribution and Poverty Reduction in Low and Middle Income Countries.” Chapter 5 in Lustig (editor) Commitment to Equity Handbook. A Guide toEstimating the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Inequality andPoverty,Tulane University and the World Bank, Fall 2016.
Directtransfers/GDPvs.GNIpercapita
18
ARM
BOL
BRA
CHL
COL
CRIDOM
ECUSLVETH
GEO
GHAGTMHND IND
JORMEX
PER
RUS
ZAF
LKA
TZA
TUN
URY
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000GNI per capita (2011 PPP)
Direct transfers/GDP Linear (Direct transfers/GDP)
Lustig, N. “Fiscal Redistribution and Poverty Reduction in Low and Middle Income Countries.” Chapter 5 in Lustig (editor) Commitment to Equity Handbook. A Guide toEstimating the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Inequality andPoverty,Tulane University and the World Bank, Fall 2016.
19
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Indonesia (2012)
Sri Lanka (2010)
Guatem
ala (2011)
Tanzania (2011)
Ethiopia (2011)
Ghana (2013)
Dom
inican Republic (2013)
Peru (2009)
Honduras (2011)
Ecuador (2011)
El Salvador (2011)
Armenia (2011)
Georgia (2013)
Mexico (2010)
Colombia (2010)
Jordan (2010)
Chile (2013)
Tunisia (2010)
South Africa (2010)
Bolivia (2009)
Costa Rica (2010)
Russia (2010)
Uruguay (2009)
Brazil (2009)
Argentina (2012)
OECD
(2011)
(ranked by social spending / GDP; GNI right hand scale)
Direct transfers Education Health Contributory pensions Other social spending GNI per capita (2011 PPP)
CompositionofsocialspendingasashareofGDP(circa2010)
Lustig, N. “Fiscal Redistribution and Poverty Reduction in Low and Middle Income Countries.” Chapter 5 in Lustig (editor) Commitment to Equity Handbook. A Guide toEstimating the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Inequality andPoverty,Tulane University and the World Bank, Fall 2016.
CompositionoftotalgovernmentrevenuesasashareofGDP(circa2010)
20
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50% (ranked by total government revenue/GDP; GNI right hand scale)
Direct taxes Indirect and other taxes Social security contributions Other revenues GNI per capita (2011 PPP)
Lustig, N. “Fiscal Redistribution and Poverty Reduction in Low and Middle Income Countries.” Chapter 5 in Lustig (editor) Commitment to Equity Handbook. A Guide toEstimating the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Inequality andPoverty,Tulane University and the World Bank, Fall 2016.
DomesticResourceMobilizationandthePoor
Towhatextentdofiscalsystemsleavethepoorworseoffintermsofconsumptionofprivategoodsandservices?
• InNOcountry,inequalityincreasesasaresultoftaxesandsocialspending
ØFiscalpolicyisalwaysequalizing
ØThemoreunequal,themorefiscalredistribution
22
23
0.0000
0.1000
0.2000
0.3000
0.4000
0.5000
0.6000
0.7000
0.8000
0.9000
Market incomepluspensions Disposableincome Consumableincome Finalincome
GiniCoefficient
Marketincome(plusallpensions)
Disposableincome Consumableincome
Finalincome
Lustig, N. “Fiscal Redistribution and Poverty Reduction in Low and Middle Income Countries.” Chapter 5 in Lustig (editor) Commitment to Equity Handbook. A Guide toEstimating the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Inequality andPoverty,Tulane University and the World Bank, Fall 2016.
More unequal, more social spending/GDPNo “Robin Hood Paradox”
24
ARG
ARM
BOL
BRA
CHL
COL
CRI
DOM
ECU
SLVETH
GHA GTM
HNDJOR
MEX
PER
RUS
ZAF
TZA
TUN
URY
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80
Soci
al s
pend
ing
Gini market income plus pensions
Lustig, N. “Fiscal Redistribution and Poverty Reduction in Low and Middle Income Countries.” Chapter 5 in Lustig (editor) Commitment to Equity Handbook. A Guide toEstimating the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Inequality andPoverty,Tulane University and the World Bank, Fall 2016.
25
ARG
ARM BOL
BRA
CHL COL
CRI
DOM
ECU
SLVETH
GEO
GHAGTM HNDINDJOR
MEX
PER
RUS
ZAF
LKA
TZA
TUN
URY
0.00
0.04
0.08
0.12
0.16
0.20
0.24
0.28
0.32
0.20 0.35 0.50 0.65 0.80
Red
istr
ibut
ive
effe
ct
Gini market income plus pensions
More unequal, more redistributionNo “Robin Hood Paradox”
Lustig, N. “Fiscal Redistribution and Poverty Reduction in Low and Middle Income Countries.” Chapter 5 in Lustig (editor) Commitment to Equity Handbook. A Guide toEstimating the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Inequality andPoverty,Tulane University and the World Bank, Fall 2016.
• However,fiscalpolicycanbeequalizingbutpovertyincreasing(intermsofthepoor’sabilitytoconsumeprivategoodsandservices):Ø1.25/dayline:Ethiopia,Ghana,Guatemala,Tanzania
Ø2.50/dayline:Armenia,Bolivia,Brazil,Ethiopia,Ghana,Guatemala,Honduras,SriLanka,Tanzania
• Thisworrisomeresultstemsmainlyfromconsumptiontaxes
26Lustig, N. “Fiscal Redistribution and Poverty Reduction in Low and Middle Income Countries.” Chapter 5 in Lustig (editor) Commitment to Equity Handbook. A Guide toEstimating the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Inequality andPoverty,Tulane University and the World Bank, Fall 2016.
27
FiscalPolicyandPovertyReduction
Lustig, N. “Fiscal Redistribution and Poverty Reduction in Low and Middle Income Countries.” Chapter 5 in Lustig (editor) Commitment to Equity Handbook. A Guide toEstimating the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Inequality andPoverty,Tulane University and the World Bank, Fall 2016.
-0.2%-1.7%-3.3%-8.3%-10.3%-11.5%
-16.1%-16.5%-18.0%-18.5%
-24.9%-31.8%-33.9%-34.6%
-44.9%-45.5%-45.9%
-54.2%-56.4%
-69.6%-69.8%-70.7%
-88.2%
-97.0%
-36.3%
4.2% 2.4%
-12.7%-8.8%
-2.3%
-14.1%-14.1%
-24.6%
-7.5%
-15.7%
-35.0%
-53.8%
-37.8%
-22.7%
-53.8%
-23.0%
-42.7%
-76.4%
-66.2%
-54.2%
-82.0%-82.6%
-28.8%
-110%
-90%
-70%
-50%
-30%
-10%
10%
Tanzania (2011)
Guatemala (2011)
Bolivia (2009) Colombia (2010)
Mexico (2010) Costa Rica (2010)
South Africa (2010)
Georgia (2013) Average
(ranked by poverty reduction in %; poverty line $1.25 2005PPP/day)
Market income plus pensions to disposable income Market income plus pensions to consumable income
28
1.5% 1.1% 0.9%
-1.0%-1.8%-2.8%-3.3%-6.5%-7.0%-7.3%-7.7%-8.3%-10.1%-10.4%
-14.9%
-21.4%-24.0%-26.1%
-27.8%-28.5%
-35.9%-40.6%
-58.4%-61.0%
-71.4%
-20.7%
9.1%5.7%
3.1%
-2.9%
1.1%5.5%
0.5%
-0.2%
-9.0%
-4.4%
-25.2%
-0.8%
3.3%
-15.1%
-10.6%
-34.8%
8.1%
-22.2%
-35.1%-29.1%
-23.3%
-51.8%
-35.4%
-51.1%
-13.8%
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
(ranked by poverty reduction in %; poverty line $2.5 2005PPP/day)
Market income plus pensions to disposable income Market income plus pensions to consumable income
FiscalPolicyandPovertyReduction
Lustig, N. “Fiscal Redistribution and Poverty Reduction in Low and Middle Income Countries.” Chapter 5 in Lustig (editor) Commitment to Equity Handbook. A Guide toEstimating the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Inequality andPoverty,Tulane University and the World Bank, Fall 2016.
Netpayersandnetreceiversincashterms(bydecile)
29
Ghana (2013)Argentina (2012)
Costa Rica (2010)El Salvador (2011)Guatemala (2011)
Peru (2009)Russia (2010)
Armenia (2011)Bolivia (2009)
Chile (2013)Dominican …
Ethiopia (2011)Honduras (2011)
Tunisia (2010)Uruguay (2009)
Brazil (2009)Sri Lanka (2010)
Mexico (2010)South Africa (2010)
Colombia (2010)Ecuador (2011)Georgia (2013)
Jordan (2010)Indonesia (2012)
Net receivers Net payers
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Lustig, N. “Fiscal Redistribution and Poverty Reduction in Low and Middle Income Countries.” Chapter 5 in Lustig (editor) Commitment to Equity Handbook. A Guide toEstimating the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Inequality andPoverty,Tulane University and the World Bank, Fall 2016.
DomesticResourceMobilizationandthePoor
Howfrequentlyfiscalsystemsmaybeinequalityreducingbutatthesametimeleavethepoorworseoffintermsoftheirpurchasingpowerofprivategoodsandservices?
31
HigginsandLustig (2016)
Higgins and Lustig. 2016. Can a poverty-reducing and progressive tax and transfer system hurtthe poor?Journal of Development Economics 122, 63-75, 2016
FiscalImpoverishment(MarkettoConsumableIncome)
32
Country (Survey year)
Market Income plus
pensions Poverty
Headcount (%)
Change in poverty
headcount(p.p)
Market Income plus
pensions inequality
( Gini)
Reynolds-Smolensky
Change in inequality (▲Gini)
Fiscally Impoverished as % of population
Fiscally Impoverished as %
of consumable income poor )
Panel A: Upper-middle income countries, using a poverty line of $2.5 PPP 2005 per dayBrazil (2008-2009) 16.8 -0.8 57.5 4.6 -3.5 5.6 34.9Chile (2013) 2.8 -1.4 49.4 3.2 -3.0 0.3 19.2Ecuador (2011) 10.8 -3.8 47.8 3.5 -3.3 0.2 3.2Mexico (2012) 13.3 -1.2 54.4 3.8 -2.5 4.0 32.7Peru (2011) 13.8 -0.2 45.9 0.9 -0.8 3.2 23.8Russia (2010) 4.3 -1.3 39.7 3.9 -2.6 1.1 34.4South Africa (2010-2011) 49.3 -5.2 77.1 8.3 -7.7 5.9 13.3Tunisia (2010) 7.8 -0.1 44.7 8.0 -6.9 3.0 38.5Panel B: Lower-middle income countries, using a poverty line of $1.25 2005PPP per day.Armenia (2011) 21.4 -8.4 47.4 12.9 -9.2 6.2 52.3Bolivia (2009) 10.9 -0.5 50.3 0.6 -0.3 6.6 63.2Dominican Republic (2007) 6.8 -0.9 50.2 2.2 -2.2 1.0 16.3El Salvador (2011) 4.3 -0.7 44.0 2.2 -2.1 1.0 27.0Ethiopia (2010-2011) 31.9 2.3 32.2 2.3 -2.0 28.5 83.2Ghana (2013) 6.0 0.7 43.7 1.6 -1.4 0.1 0.8Guatemala (2010) 12.0 -0.8 49.0 1.4 -1.2 7.0 62.2Indonesia (2012) 12.0 -1.5 39.8 1.1 -0.8 4.1 39.2Sri Lanka (2009-2010) 5.0 -0.7 37.1 1.3 -1.1 1.6 36.4Tanzania (2011-2012) 43.7 7.9 38.2 4.1 -3.8 50.9 98.6
Higgins and Lustig. 2016. Can a poverty-reducing and progressive tax and transfer system hurt the poor? Journal of DevelopmentEconomics 122, 63-75, 2016
• Fifteenoftheeighteencountrieswithareduction inpovertyandinequalityduetothetaxandtransfersystemexperiencedvariousdegreesoffiscalimpoverishment.
• Intencountries—Armenia,Bolivia,Brazil,ElSalvador,Guatemala,Indonesia,Mexico,Russia,SriLanka,andTunisia—betweenone-quarterandtwo-thirdsofthepost-fiscpoorlostincometothefiscalsystem.
• Inthethreecountrieswheretheheadcountratiorose(Ethiopia,GhanaandTanzania),theproportionofthepoorwhowereimpoverishedbythefiscalsystemisstaggering(above75percent).
• InArmenia,Ethiopia,Indonesia,Tunisia,andRussia,between25and50%arestillfiscallyimpoverishedwhenthemonetizedvalueofeducationandhealthservicesareincludedastransfers
33Lustig.2016.“TheSDG’s,DomesticResourceMobilizationandthePoor,”backgroundpaperfortheExpertGroupMeeting:“Strategiesforeradicatingpovertytoachievesustainabledevelopmentforall,”UnitedNations,NewYork,June
Ø ExtremecaremustbetakenwithemphasizingdomesticresourcemobilizationtoachieveSDGs
ØMustassesstheimpactonthepooroftaxandsubsidyreforms,otherwiseonemaybetakingawayfromthepoormorethanistransferredtothem
Ø Impactonthepoorofincreasingtaxesrequirestheuseofadequateindicators;conventionalmeasuresofinequalityandpovertycanbeawfullymisleading
Ø FiscalImpoverishmentIndexfulfillsalltherequirementstoobtainanaccurateassessmentoftheimpactoffiscalchangesonthepoor
34Lustig.2016.“TheSDG’s,DomesticResourceMobilizationandthePoor,”backgroundpaperfortheExpertGroupMeeting:“Strategiesforeradicatingpovertytoachievesustainabledevelopmentforall,”UnitedNations,NewYork,June
References:• Enami,A.,N.Lustig andR.Aranda.“AnalyticalFoundations: MeasuringtheImpactofFiscalPolicyon
InequalityandPoverty.”Chapter4inLustig (editor)CommitmenttoEquityHandbook.AGuidetoEstimatingtheImpactofFiscal PolicyonInequalityandPoverty,TulaneUniversity andtheWorld Bank,Fall2016.
• Higgins,S.andN.Lustig.“AnalyzingtheImpactofTaxes,Transfers,andSubsidies onInequalityandPoverty.”and“TheCommitmenttoEquity(CEQ)Assessment: Indicators.”Chapters1and3(respectively)inLustig (editor)CommitmenttoEquityHandbook.AGuidetoEstimatingtheImpactofFiscalPolicyonInequalityandPoverty,TulaneUniversityandtheWorld Bank,Fall2016.
• --------- 2016.Canapoverty-reducing andprogressive taxandtransfersystemhurtthepoor? JournalofDevelopmentEconomics122,63-75, 2016
• Higgins,S.,N.Lustig,W.RubleandT.Smeeding.2015.“ComparingtheIncidenceofTaxesandSocialSpending inBrazilandtheUnitedStates.”ReviewofIncomeandWealth,Published OnlineMay24,2015,DOI:10.1111/roiw.12201
• Lustig,N.“FiscalRedistributionandPovertyReductioninLowandMiddle IncomeCountries.”Chapter5inLustig (editor)CommitmenttoEquityHandbook.AGuidetoEstimatingtheImpactofFiscal PolicyonInequalityandPoverty,TulaneUniversityandtheWorld Bank,Fall2016.
• ----------. 2016.“TheSDG’s,DomesticResourceMobilizationandthePoor,”backgroundpaperfortheExpertGroupMeeting:“Strategiesforeradicatingpovertytoachievesustainabledevelopment forall,”UnitedNations,NewYork,June.
• ---------- “InequalityandFiscalRedistribution inMiddleIncomeCountries:Brazil,Chile, Colombia,Indonesia,Mexico,PeruAndSouthAfrica.”Journal ofGlobalizationandDevelopment.Forthcoming.
• --------- “TheRedistributive ImpactofGovernmentSpending onEducationandHealth:Evidencefrom13DevelopingCountries intheCommitment toEquityProject”Chapter17in Gupta,Sanjeev,MichaelKeen,BenedictClements andRuuddeMooij, editors,InequalityandFiscalPolicy,Washington:InternationalMonetaryFund, 2015.
35
Teams and references by country:(in parenthesis: survey year; C=consumption & I=income)
1. Argentina (2012-13; I) Rossignolo, Darío. 2016. CEQ Masterworkbook, CEQ Institute, Tulane University (February 28, 2016)
2. Armenia (2011;I) Younger, Stephen D., and Artsvi Khachatryan. forthcoming. “Fiscal Incidence in Armenia,” in: Inchauste, G., Lustig, N. (Eds.), The Distributional Impact of Fiscal Policy: Experience from Developing Countries. World Bank, Washington, D.C (forthcoming)
3. Bolivia (2009; I): Paz Arauco, Verónica, George Gray Molina, Wilson Jiménez Pozo, and Ernesto Yáñez Aguilar. 2014. “Explaining Low Redistributive Impact in Bolivia.” In Lustig, Nora, Carola Pessino and John Scott. 2014. Editors. The Redistributive Impact of Taxes and Social Spending in Latin America. Special Issue. Public Finance Review, May, Volume 42, Issue 3. (September 22, 2014)
4. Brazil (2009; I): Higgins, Sean and Claudiney Pereira. 2014. “The Effects of Brazil’s Taxation and Social Spending on the Distribution of Household Income.” In Lustig, Nora, Carola Pessino and John Scott. 2014. Editors. The Redistributive Impact of Taxes and Social Spending in Latin America. Special Issue. Public Finance Review, May, Volume 42, Issue 3. (November 4, 2014)
5. Chile (2009, I): Ruiz-Tagle, Jaime and Dante Contreras. 2014. CEQ Masterworkbook, Tulane University (August 27, 2014)
6. Colombia (2010, I): Lustig, Nora and Marcela Melendez. 2015. The Impact of Taxes and Transfers on Inequality and Poverty in Colombia. CEQ Working Paper No 24, Center for Inter-American Policy and Research and Department of Economics, Tulane University and Inter-American Dialogue. Forthcoming.
36
7. Costa Rica (2010; I): Sauma, Juan and Diego Trejos. 2014. Social Public Spending, Taxes, Redistribution of Income, and Poverty in Costa. CEQ Working Paper No. 18, Center for Inter-American Policy and Research and Department of Economics, Tulane University and Inter-American Dialogue, January. (February 2014)
7. Dominican Republic (2006-2007, I) : Aristy-Escuder, J., M. Cabrera, B. Moreno-Dodson and M. E. Sánchez-Martín. 2016. “Fiscal policy and redistribution in the Dominican Republic.” CEQ Working Paper No 37, CEQ Institute. (forthcoming). Note: budgetary data was for 2013.
8. Ecuador: Llerena Pinto, Freddy Paul, María Christina Llerena Pinto, Roberto Carlos Saá Daza, and MaríaAndrea Llerena Pinto. 20Social Spending, Taxes and Income Redistribution in Ecuador. CEQ Working Paper No. 28, Center for Inter-American Policy and Research and Department of Economics, Tulane University and Inter-American Dialogue, February.
9. El Salvador (2011; I): Beneke, Margarita, Nora Lustig y José Andrés Oliva. 2015. El impacto de los impuestos y el gasto social en la desigualdad y la pobreza en El Salvador. CEQ Working Paper No. 26, Center for Inter-American Policy and Research and Department of Economics, Tulane University and Inter-American Dialogue, February. (March 11, 2014)
10. Ethiopia (2011; C): Hill, Ruth, Gabriela Inchauste, Nora Lustig, Eyasu Tsehaye and Tassew Woldehanna. forthcoming. “A Fiscal Incidence Analysis for Ethiopia,” in: Inchauste, G., Lustig, N. (Eds.), The Distributional Impact of Fiscal Policy: Experience from Developing Countries. World Bank, Washington, D.C (forthcoming)
Teams and references by country:(in parenthesis: survey year; C=consumption & I=income)
37
11. European Union (2011, I) : EUROMOD statistics on Distribution and Decomposition of Disposable Income, accessed at http://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/euromod/statistics/ using EUROMOD version no. G2.0.
11. Georgia (2013; I): Cancho, Cesar and Elena Bondarenko. forthcoming. “The Distributional Impact of Fiscal Policy in Georgia," in: Inchauste, G., Lustig, N. (Eds.), The Distributional Impact of Fiscal Policy: Experience from Developing Countries. World Bank, Washington, D.C (forthcoming)
12. Guatemala (2011; I): Cabrera, Maynor, Nora Lustig and Hilcías Morán. 2014. Fiscal Policy, Inequality and the Ethnic Divide in Guatemala. CEQ Working Paper No. 20, Center for Inter-American Policy and Research and Department of Economics, Tulane University and Inter-American Dialogue, October. (April 13, 2014)
14. Honduras (2011; I): Castañeda, Ricardo e Ilya Espino. 2015. CEQ Masterworkbook, CEQ Institute, Tulane University (August 18, 2015)
15. Indonesia (2012; C) : Afkar, Rythia, Jon Jellema, and Mathew Wai-Poi. forthcoming. “The Distributional Impact of Fiscal Policy in Indonesia,” in: Inchauste, Gabriela and Nora Lustig (Eds.), The Distributional Impact of Fiscal Policy: Experience from Developing Countries. World Bank, Washington, D.C (forthcoming)
16. Jordan (2010; C): Alam, Shamma A. , Gabriela Inchauste, and Umar Serajuddin. forthcoming. “The Distributional Impact of Fiscal Policy in Jordan,” in: Inchauste, G., Lustig, N. (Eds.), The Distributional Impact of Fiscal Policy: Experience from Developing Countries. World Bank, Washington, D.C (forthcoming)
Teams and references by country:(in parenthesis: survey year; C=consumption & I=income)
38
17. Mexico (2010; I):Scott, John. 2014. “Redistributive Impact and Efficiency of Mexico’s Fiscal System.” In Lustig, Nora, Carola Pessino and John Scott. 2014. Editors. The Redistributive Impact of Taxes and Social Spending in Latin America. Special Issue. Public Finance Review, May, Volume 42, Issue 3. (September 2013)
18. Peru (2009; I): Jaramillo, Miguel. 2014. “The Incidence of Social Spending and Taxes in Peru.” In Lustig, Nora, Carola Pessino and John Scott. 2014. Editors. The Redistributive Impact of Taxes and Social Spending in Latin America. Special Issue. Public Finance Review, May, Volume 42, Issue 3. (May 1, 2013)
19. Russia (2010; I): Lopez-Calva, Luis F. , Nora Lustig, Mikhail Matytsin, and Daria Popova. forthcoming. “Who Benefits from Fiscal Redistribution in Russia?,” in: Inchauste, G., Lustig, N. (Eds.), The Distributional Impact of Fiscal Policy: Experience from Developing Countries. World Bank, Washington, D.C (forthcoming)
20. South Africa (2010; I): Inchauste, Gabriela, Nora Lustig, Mashekwa Maboshe, Catriona Purfield and Ingrid Wollard. forthcoming. “The Distributional Impact of Fiscal Policy in South Africa,” in: Inchauste, G., Lustig, N. (Eds.), The Distributional Impact of Fiscal Policy: Experience from Developing Countries. World Bank, Washington, D.C (forthcoming)
21. Sri Lanka (2010; C): Arunatilake, Nisha, Gabriela Inchauste and Nora Lustig. forthcoming. “The Incidence of Taxes and Spending in Sri Lanka,” in: Inchauste, G., Lustig, N. (Eds.), The Distributional Impact of Fiscal Policy: Experience from Developing Countries. World Bank, Washington, D.C (forthcoming)
Teams and references by country:(in parenthesis: survey year; C=consumption & I=income)
39
22. Tunisia (2010, ???): Shimeles, A., A. Moummi, N. Jouini and N. Lustig. 2016. “Fiscal Incidence and Poverty Reduction: Evidence from Tunisia,” CEQ Working Paper No. 38, Commitment to Equity Institute, Tulane University. (forthcoming).
23. United States (2011, I): Higgins, S., N. Lustig, W. Ruble and T. Smeeding (2015), “Comparing the Incidence of Taxes and Social Spending in Brazil and the United States”, Review of Income and Wealth, forthcoming.
24. Uruguay (2009; I): Bucheli, Marisa, Nora Lustig, Máximo Rossi, and Florencia Amábile. 2014. “Social Spending, Taxes and Income Redistribution in Uruguay.” In: Lustig, Nora, Carola Pessino and John Scott. 2014. Editors. The Redistributive Impact of Taxes and Social Spending in Latin America. Special Issue. Public Finance Review, May, Volume 42, Issue 3. (August 18, 2014)
Teams and references by country:(in parenthesis: survey year; C=consumption & I=income)
40
Thankyou!
41