the second half of the chessboard
TRANSCRIPT
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reservedCopyright © ian fenwick. All rights reserved
MBA for Life Seminar:
The Second Half of the Chessboard
Dr Ian Fenwick
May 11, 2015Professor of Marketing, Sasin Graduate Institute, Bangkok
Professor Emeritus, Schulich School of Business, TorontoVisiting Professor of Marketing, Griffith University
Founding Partner, AnyPrep LLC
…why the future’s bound to be weird
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
I’m really not a fortune-
teller. This presentation
is about what we can
already see around us
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
https://www.flickr.com/photos/qubodup/3201597868 by Iwan Gabovitch http://time.com/29910/facebook-can-identify-faces-as-well-as-you/
Story told about the inventor of
chess…his ruler liked the
game so much he offered the
inventor anything he wantedHe asked for 1 grain of rice on
square 1, 2 on square 2, 4 in
square 3, doubling each time
All went well until square 32,
which need just over 4 billion
grains…that’s a large field.
But then square 33 needed 2
large fields….
That’s when they did the math,
and figured the last square
would need more rice than ever
grown in the world to date
…the second half of the
chessboard needs 4 billion times
as much rice as the first half
Exponential progressions can really get out of hand….
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Chessboard
Data, agents, bots, algorithms
Nearables, wearables, steerables & other smart things
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
Moore’s Law:1 square about 18 months
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Sputnik_asm.jpg a replica of Sputnik, PUBLIC DOMAIN, NASA
you are here
start at Sputnik (1957): now 40th square
Computing power sort of doubles
every 18 months or so…say we
started with Sputnik
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
https://www.flickr.com/photos/qubodup/3201597868 by Iwan Gabovitch http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_Blue_versus_Garry_Kasparov/
http://www.wired.com/2014/10/future-of-artificial-intelligence/
Big Blue1996: wetware 4, hardware 2
1997: wetware 2½, hardware 3½
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
https://www.flickr.com/photos/qubodup/3201597868 by Iwan Gabovitch http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watson_(computer)
http://www.vanityfair.com/news/tech/2014/11/artificial-intelligence-singularity-theory
Watson2011: Watson (hardware) wins $1m, beats Jeopardy champion wetwares
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
https://www.flickr.com/photos/qubodup/3201597868 by Iwan Gabovitch http://www.forbes.com/sites/amitchowdhry/2014/03/18/facebooks-deepface-software-can-
match-faces-with-97-25-accuracy/ http://sterlingcrispin.com/data-masks.html
2013: DeepFace is watching youDeepFace 97.25%, wetware 97.53%
Sterling Crispin’s “Data Masks”
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
https://www.flickr.com/photos/qubodup/3201597868 by Iwan Gabovitch http://researchnews.osu.edu/archive/21emotions.htm
2014: computers recognize sentiment;can identify 21 expressions
including complex or contradictoryemotions “happily disgusted”
“sadly angry” etc
happy disgustedhappily
disgusted
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
https://www.flickr.com/photos/qubodup/3201597868 by Iwan Gabovitch http://researchnews.osu.edu/archive/21emotions.htm
happy disgustedhappily
disgusted
…distinguishes authentic expressions from false expressions
with an accuracy rate of 85%...[vs. wetware’s] 55%
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
http://www.wired.com/2015/02/google-ai-plays-atari-like-pros/all/1
Google has built a “a general-learning algorithm that should be applicable
to many other tasks,” says Koray Kavukcuoglu, a Google researcher.
from Deep Mind, bought by Google 2014 for estimated $400M
Uses “deep learning and… deep reinforcement learning”
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
Part 1
Part 3
Part 2
Chessboard
Data, agents, bots, algorithms
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
https://www.flickr.com/photos/eugeneflores/3518082842/in/photolist-4Ju9bQ-4JpUpp-4JpVkx-4JpUxF-4Ju93W-4Ju9KA-4Ju9m3-7dsumf-4Ju9uf-7doBue-mPxWAV-
5q8apy-Uicdq-4JeAbX-7mJyrF-7mNqqQ-9oBiv5-6sWqrp-6A9jsu-6mT6sJ Eugene Flores
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
http://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/if-you-think-big-datas-challenges-are-tough-now/ http://www.csc.com/insights/flxwd/78931-big_data_universe_beginning_to_explode
Just when you figured out what a gigabyte was…
2020: 44 ZB
2013: 4.4 ZB2007: all information < 1/3 of a zettabyte
learn zettabyte= 1 billion gigabytes
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Internet,_nobody_knows_you%27re_a_dog#mediaviewer/File:Internet_dog.jpg
"Internet dog" by Source. Licensed under Fair use via Wikipedia - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Internet_dog.jpg#mediaviewer/File:Internet_dog.jpg
Peter Steiner 1993…the most reproduced cartoon from The New Yorker
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
These are the droids you’re looking for…
http://gizmodo.com/more-than-half-of-
internet-traffic-is-just-bots-1491356746
2013
half the trades on Wall Street by “autonomous machines”
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
http://pronouncemath.blogspot.com/2013/04/muhammad-ibn-musa-al-khwarizmi.html
All that data’s crunched by algorithms…which word
comes from the mangled pronunciation of the name of
a mathematician of 1200+ years ago…who also gave
us the name ‘algebra’
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reservedhttp://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/apr/02/google-could-be-fined-4bn-ec-signals-legal-challenge-margrethe-vestager
Want to find something?Algorithms rule search
Some say algorithms
fix search…certainly v
few go beyond first
few results
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
Want to find something?
Same search on
DuckDuckGo shows
fewer YouTube and
greater prominence to
group’s own site
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
http://www.mondaynote.com/2015/02/01/from-trust-in-news-to-news-profiling/
In bots and algorithms, we trust
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
http://www.mondaynote.com/2015/02/01/from-trust-in-news-to-news-profiling/
In bots and algorithms, we trust
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
Want to influence elections?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-switch/wp/2014/05/12/research-in-india-suggests-google-search-results-can-influence-an-election/
Undecided voters in IndiaManipulated search results to increase prominence of different candidatesOn average shifted votes by 12.5% Among the group shown pro-Gandhi rankings, his support increased by 26.5%.
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
Want make people happy, or sad?
Social Contagion
reduced exposure to friends' "positive
emotional content",results in fewer
positive posts And vice versa
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streisand_effect "Streisand Estate" by Copyright (C) 2002 Kenneth & Gabrielle Adelman, California Coastal Records Project,
www.californiacoastline.org. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons -
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Streisand_Estate.jpg#mediaviewer/File:Streisand_Estate.jpg
Want to hide something?
Before lawsuit: "Image 3850" 6 downloads In the month after? more than 420,000
The Streisland Effect
Don’t so what Striesland
did…litigation doesn’t hide stuff on
the web…it makes it infamous
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
http://gizmodo.com/why-people-keep-trying-to-erase-the-hollywood-sign-from-1658084644 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hollywood_Sign "Aerial Hollywood Sign" by Jelson25 -
Own work. Licensed under Public Domain via Wikimedia Commons -
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Aerial_Hollywood_Sign.jpg#mediaviewer/File:Aerial_Hollywood_Sign.jpg
http://la.curbed.com/archives/2011/06/big_tourists_go_away_message_shows_up_below_hollywood_sign.php?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter#touristsgoaway
-4
Want to really hide something?
Like the residents near the
Hollywood sign did…tired of
endless tourist in their canyons…
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
http://gizmodo.com/why-people-keep-trying-to-erase-the-hollywood-sign-from-1658084644 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hollywood_Sign "Aerial Hollywood Sign" by Jelson25 -
Own work. Licensed under Public Domain via Wikimedia Commons -
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Aerial_Hollywood_Sign.jpg#mediaviewer/File:Aerial_Hollywood_Sign.jpg http://www.dailynews.com/20120315/gps-directions-to-
hollywood-sign-will-change
http://la.curbed.com/archives/2011/06/big_tourists_go_away_message_shows_up_below_hollywood_sign.php?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter#touristsgoaway
-4
you are here
sign ishere
can't physically block access, so virtually, algorithmically, block access...
Google suggests
walk this
way…
Change the algorithm…online
navigation now sends you to a
viewing center, not the sign…
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
Want to understand someone?Other’s correlation with person’s self-assessment
algorithm using 10 FB likes
algorithm using70 FB likes
algorithm using300 FB likes
Work Colleague
FriendCo-habitant
Spouse
FamilyHuman Average
Computer Average
©2015 by National Academy of Sciences
Wu Youyou et al. PNAS 2015;112:1036-1040 http://www.pnas.org/content/112/4/1036.full
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
Catch someone ‘in the mood’?
…launching playlists as a proxy for the activity or mood you're in…[they have roughly 400,000 playlists related to barbecues…and 1.5 billion playlists in total]
“http://adage.com/article/digital/spotify-playlists-gauge-moods-ad-
targeting/298066/?utm_source=digital_email&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=adage&ttl=1429805375
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
http://streamditto.com/
http://ditto.us.com/
…algorithms get visual
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/all-of-your-tumblr-photos-will-now-be-scanned-for-branded-content
• Ditto's algorithm uses images from Twitter, Instagram & Tumblr
• trained to recognize brands• …& indicators of users' feelings
towards them • builds maps of brand affiliations…
…algorithms get visual
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
Want to guess someone’s age?
http://www.how-old.net/ http://www.independent.co.uk/life-
style/gadgets-and-tech/news/uploading-pictures-to-find-out-how-
old-you-are-gives-microsoft-the-right-to-post-them-wherever-
they-want-10219428.html
http://www.theverge.com/2015/4/30/8522649/microsoft-how-old-
do-i-look
Not only does Microsoft’s
algorithm think I’m 84…it also
allegedly can use my pic…
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Chessboard
Data, agents, bots, algorithms
Nearables, wearables, steerables & other smart things
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
http://www.wired.com/2014/10/future-of-artificial-intelligence/
everything that we formerly electrified, we
will now cognitize“
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
[a] layer of connected intelligence that
augments the actions of individuals,
automates processes, & incorporates digitallyempowered machines into our lives,
increasing our insight into & control over thetangible world
…fish don’t see the water
http://chiefmartec.com/2013/06/martecs-law-technology-changes-exponentially-organizations-change-logarithmically/
http://share.cisco.com/internet-of-things.html
Accenture Technology Vision 2014 http://www.accenture.com/microsite/it-technology-trends-
2014/Documents/TechVision/Downloads/Accenture_Technology_Vision_2014.pdf
digital–physical blur: extending intelligence to the edge…“
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
[a] layer of connected intelligence that augments the actions of individuals, automates processes, & incorporates digitally empowered machines into our lives, increasing our insight into & control over the tangible world
…fish don’t see the water
http://chiefmartec.com/2013/06/martecs-law-technology-changes-exponentially-organizations-change-logarithmically/
http://share.cisco.com/internet-of-things.html
Accenture Technology Vision 2014 http://www.accenture.com/microsite/it-technology-trends-
2014/Documents/TechVision/Downloads/Accenture_Technology_Vision_2014.pdf
digital–physical blur: extending intelligence to the edge…“
“
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
Ownership?
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/09/24/miss-a-payment-good-luck-moving-that-car/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0&pagewanted=all
http://www.wired.com/2015/04/dmca-ownership-john-deere/
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
…machine-to-machine, or M2M, is a
natural consequence of…computerization of devices around us…“
David Clark, a senior research scientist at MIT
Devices…have their
own patterns of communication, their own‘social networks,’ which they use to share& aggregate information, & undertakeautomatic control & activation.
…humans will be in a world in which
decisions are being made by an active setof cooperating devices.
Pew Research Center, March 2014, “Digital Life in 2025” http://www.pewinternet.org/2014/03/11/digital-life-in-2025/
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
Pew Research Center, March 2014, “Digital Life in 2025” http://www.pewinternet.org/2014/03/11/digital-life-in-2025/
…machine-to-machine, or M2M, is a natural consequence of the increasing computerization of all the devices around us…Devices will…have their own patterns of communication, their own ‘social networks,’which they use to share & aggregate information, & undertake automatic control & activation. …humans will be in a world in which decisions are being made by an active set of cooperating devices.
“
David Clark, a senior research scientist at MIT
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
http://www.contagious.com/blogs/news-and-views/17888484-the-future-of-advertising-is-software
xtreme segmentation
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
Vigo knows you’re drowsy before you do “http://techcrunch.com/2014/01/17/vigo/ http://lechal.com/ http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/jul/25/vibrating-smartshoes-google-maps-lechal
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
http://www.wired.com/2014/10/future-of-artificial-intelligence/
The more people who use an AI, the smarter it gets.
…our AI future is likely to be ruled by anoligarchy of two or three large, general
purpose cloud-based commercialintelligences
The smarter it gets, the more people use it.The more people that use it, the smarter it gets
Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
https://www.flickr.com/photos/tambako/494144260 Tiger eating in the snow by Tambako The Jaguar
Digital is disruptive …it’s a tiger
There was a young lady of Riga,Who smiled as she rode on the tiger;They returned from their rideWith the lady inside,and the smile on the face of the tiger