the shock of the new? britain in 2015

The Shock of the New? – Britain in 2015

[email protected] @benatipsosmori

Ben Page , Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI

“We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten”

Global Trends Survey | July 2014

MEGA TRENDS

www.ipsosglobaltrends.com


POPULATION CHANGE

UNEVEN ECONOMIC GROWTH

GLOBALISATION AND MIGRATION

CLIMATE CHANGE

TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE

POLITICAL AND

INDIVIDUAL CHANGE


OUR TOP TRENDS


TECHNOLOGY TRADITION HEALTH

SIMPLICITY GLOBALISATION GENERATIONS INEQUALITY

TRUST


Out of every 100 people in Britain, about how many do you think are:

We have a very odd view of our country...

Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013; Census 2011, NOMIS; 2011 Census, Population and Household Estimates for England

and Wales (July 2012) ONS; Families and Households, 2012 (November 2012) ONS..

34 36

30

22 24

28

Mean 59

16

11 8 5 3

34 36

30

22 24

28

Actual

Christian Aged 65+ Black/Asian Unemployed Muslim Single parents


V worried about immigration….

Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75, *British Social Attitudes Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013 ; *Detailed country of birth and nationality analysis from the 2011 Census of

England and Wales, (May 2013) ONS. **Immigration Statistics, January to March 2013, (May 2013) Home

Office.

What percentage of

the United Kingdom

population do you

think are immigrants

to this country (i.e.

not born in the UK)?

31

13

Mean unprompted

Actual


Out of every £100 spent from the welfare budget, can you tell me how much of that is

claimed fraudulently (i.e. people who dishonestly claim more benefits than they are

entitled to)?

Biggest misperception on benefit fraud...

Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75

Mean estimate £24

Actual 70p

Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013; National Statistics fraud and error in the benefit system: preliminary

2012/13 estimates (Great Britain) first release, (June2013) DWP.


TECHNOLOGY THE CULTURE OF NOW


THE CULTURE OF NOW

78% in China say they

are ‘constantly

looking at

screens these

days’


THE CULTURE OF NOW

TECHNOLOGY TRACKER | QUARTERLY RELEASE: Q2 2014

GROWTH IN SMARTPHONES

13

% OWN by MANUFACTURER

Base: circa 1,000 GB adults aged 15+ per wave Source: Ipsos MORI

37

64

13 13

6 9

30

1 4

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Q3' 11 Q4' 11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14

Any Smartphone (net)

Windows

TECHNOLOGY TRACKER | QUARTERLY RELEASE: Q2 2014

STILL FOR YOUNG/AFFLUENT…

All 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Males 63% 83% 84% 80% 68% 47% 21%

Males AB 71% 91% 90% 92% 86% 60% 30%

Males C1 70% 87% 89% 88% 66% 47% 26%

Males C2 59% 79% 82% 76% 62% 47% 12%

Males DE 50% 78% 76% 55% 48% 25% 11%

14

% OWN A SMARTPHONE BY GENDER AND SOCIAL GRADE 2013/2014

Base: circa 4,000 GB adults aged 15+: Q3/Q4 2013/Q1/Q2 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI

Females 56% 86% 81% 76% 58% 36% 15%

Females AB 66% 94% 89% 85% 70% 47% 34%

Females C1 60% 90% 91% 82% 59% 33% 15%

Females C2 50% 85% 70% 69% 49% 40% 6%

Females DE 47% 81% 74% 58% 46% 24% 7%

70-100% 50-69% 0-49%


TRADITION MORE FORWARDS THAN

BACKWARDS


RETURN OF THE DIMPLED PINT GLASS


1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

T

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

85%

75%

74%

72%

70%

70%

69%

67%

66%

65%

64%

63%

62%

61%

60%

60%

59%

54%

48%

43%

35%

13%

22%

23%

22%

25%

24%

24%

25%

27%

28%

30%

28%

30%

30%

35%

35%

34%

38%

45%

42%

55%

Turkey

China

S Africa

India

Italy

Brazil

US

Australia

Russia

Poland

Total

Belgium

Argentina

GB

France

S Korea

Canada

Germany

Spain

Japan

Sweden

Base: 16,039 adults across 20 countries (1,000 GB), online, 3-17 Sept 2013

Total Great Britain

Key:

People led happier

lives in the old days

when they had fewer

problems to cope with

THE POWER OF NOSTALGIA

Agree Disagree


79% agree that

“it is up to everybody to

work out their own set of

principles to guide their

decisions”

LOOKING FORWARDS AND LOOKING BACKWARDS

78% agree that

“traditions are an

important part of society”


1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

T

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

73%

56%

54%

41%

38%

38%

37%

37%

36%

36%

34%

33%

31%

30%

24%

23%

23%

22%

16%

11%

9%

22%

39%

42%

55%

48%

55%

55%

56%

56%

61%

60%

63%

62%

63%

68%

70%

72%

73%

80%

83%

88%

Russia

India

China

S Korea

Japan

Brazil

Poland

Argentina

US

Turkey

Total

S Africa

Germany

Australia

GB

Canada

Belgium

Italy

France

Spain

Sweden


BUT MOST PLACES NOT NOSTALGIC ABOUT GENDER ROLES

Total Great Britain

Key:

The role of

women in

society is to

be good

mothers and

wives

Agree Disagree


SIMPLICITY CHOICE ABOUT CHOICE



UNIFORM DESIRE FOR SIMPLICITY

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

16-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55+I wish my

life was

more simple

Emerging

% agree

Established



CHOICES OVERWHELM?

Total Great Britain

Key:

I often feel

overwhelmed by

all the choices I

have about how to

live my life

65%

65%

64%

62%

60%

58%

50%

48%

45%

45%

44%

44%

42%

41%

41%

41%

41%

39%

37%

34%

33%

32%

28%

33%

30%

36%

39%

42%

46%

51%

46%

49%

51%

52%

51%

52%

48%

54%

52%

58%

59%

61%

S Korea

India

Turkey

Poland

Italy

S Africa

Argentina

Total

China

Japan

Australia

GB

Canada

Belgium

Brazil

Russia

US

Spain

France

Sweden

Germany

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

T

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

Agree Disagree


Cass Sunstein


GLOBALISATION GLOBAL VILLAGE


CHANGE ANXIETY

56% agree “there are too

many immigrants in…”

77% agree “the world is

changing too fast”

77% agree “the world is an

increasingly dangerous

place to live”


CHANGE ANXIETY


Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014

Unemployment

NHS Crime/ Law & Order

Economy

Race / immigration


GLOBAL BUT LOCAL

Locality –

people happier and more

optimistic closer to home

– SAY want local issues

resolved at local level

Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly

Confidential

© Ipsos MORI

Localism

61%

59%

58%

56%

55%

52%

51%

47%

47%

46%

46%

45%

42%

42%

39%

37%

37%

34%

30%

26%

26%

27%

28%

21%

31%

24%

31%

22%

17%

29%

27%

24%

26%

36%

18%

33%

31%

32%

13%

14%

13%

23%

15%

20%

25%

22%

31%

37%

26%

28%

31%

34%

35%

27%

46%

33%

40%

42%

US

Canada

France

Italy

India

Poland

Brazil

Spain

Argent…

Sweden

1 to 2

4 to 5

Total

Great

Britain

Which comes

closest to your own

opinion?

A. Decisions about

public services (e.g.

public transportation,

public education, public

safety and social

services), are better if

they are made locally

OR

B. Decisions about

public services are

better if they are made

nationally

Base: 16,039 adults across 20 countries (1,000 GB), online, 3-17 Sept 2013 Question 12 (no

China)

1

2

3

4

5

6

8

7

9

10

11

T

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19


GENERATIONS GENERATIONS APART


1

2

3

4

5

6

7

T

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20


THE SHIFTING BALANCE OF GLOBAL OPTIMISM …

To what extent, if at all,

do you feel that today’s

youth will have had a

better or worse life than

their parents’

generation, or will it be

about the same?

Total Great Britain

Key:

81%

49%

45%

41%

40%

35%

34%

34%

34%

31%

31%

30%

29%

24%

23%

20%

19%

19%

16%

13%

7%

8%

32%

37%

41%

29%

47%

40%

37%

42%

37%

45%

42%

56%

42%

46%

54%

43%

54%

62%

60%

69%

China

India

Brazil

Turkey

Russia

S Africa

S Korea

Japan

Total

Argentina

Poland

Australia

Italy

Germany

Canada

GB

Sweden

US

Spain

Belgium

France

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

T

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

Better Worse


Almost entirely wrong


All data points represent > 200 responses

Source: British Social Attitudes

“The government should spend more money on welfare benefits for the poor,

even if it leads to higher taxes…”

Attitudes to welfare state change across generations - there are clear cohort and period effects

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000)

% Agree

1. Decline in support across board

2. But generations are different – and stay different

3. Younger age groups are less open to further redistribution




Do you think of yourself as a supporter of any one political party?

Support for ONE party down to 21%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

83 84 85 86 87 89 90 91 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Pre war (born before 1945) Baby boomers (born 1945-1965) Generation X (born 1966-1979)Generation Y (born 1980-) Generation Z (born after 2000) Total

% Yes




Are sexual relations between two adults of the same sex always wrong, almost

always wrong, wrong only sometimes, or not wrong at all?

17% to 62% in “support” for gay relationships

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Pre war (born before 1945) Baby boomers (born 1945-1965) Generation X (born 1966-1979)Generation Y (born 1980-) Generation Z (born after 2000) Total

% Not wrong at all




A husband's job is to earn money; a wife's job is to look after the home and

family

From 38% to 80% disagreement with traditional gender roles

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22Pre war (born before 1945) Baby boomers (born 1945-1965) Generation X (born 1966-1979)Generation Y (born 1980-) Generation Z (born after 2000) Total

% disagree


The authority problem



(DIS)SATISFACTION WITH GOVERNMENT

Total Great Britain

Key:

The way the

government is

running the

country

31%

27%

25%

24%

23%

22%

20%

17%

16%

15%

14%

14%

13%

12%

11%

10%

7%

5%

5%

3%

45%

41%

42%

53%

59%

61%

47%

59%

60%

67%

53%

51%

46%

59%

59%

71%

73%

82%

84%

84%

Sweden

Germany

Canada

India

Turkey

Argentina

Australia

GB

Total

US

S Korea

Belgium

Japan

Russia

Brazil

Poland

France

Spain

S Africa

Italy

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

T

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

Satisfied Dissatisfied

No China



SO WHO DO CONSUMERS TRUST? FELLOW CONSUMERS …

Total Great Britain

Key:

What I read about

other people’s

good or bad

experiences

influences the

companies or

brands

I choose

86%

74%

74%

73%

72%

71%

68%

68%

68%

67%

67%

67%

67%

66%

65%

61%

59%

58%

56%

49%

48%

10%

20%

23%

24%

24%

20%

20%

24%

23%

29%

26%

26%

26%

26%

26%

32%

33%

29%

29%

41%

46%

China

India

S Africa

Turkey

S Korea

Russia

Brazil

GB

US

Sweden

Total

Australia

Canada

Germany

Poland

Italy

Spain

Argentina

Japan

Belgium

France

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

T

11

12

13

14

1

16

17

18

19

20

Agree Disagree


Authenticity

and voice

The election and the mess that will follow

0

10

20

30

40

50

Dec-0

3

Ma

r-04

Ju

n-0

4

Sep

-04

Dec-0

4

Ma

r-05

Ju

n-0

5

Sep

-05

De

c-0

5M

ar-0

6

Ju

n-0

6

Sep

-06

De

c-0

6M

ar-0

7

Ju

n-0

7

Sep

-07

Dec-0

7

Ma

r-08

Ju

n-0

8

Sep

-08

Dec-0

8

Ma

r-09

Ju

n-0

9

Sep

-09

Dec-0

9

Ma

r-10

Ju

n-1

0

Sep

-10

Dec-1

0

Ma

r-11

Ju

n-1

1

Sep

-11

Dec-1

1

Ma

r-12

Ju

n-1

2

Sep

-12

Dec-1

2

Ma

r-13

Ju

n-1

3

Sep

-13

Dec-1

3

Ma

r-14

Ju

n-1

4

Sep

-14

33%

7%

34%

15%

2005 General Election Cameron

elected (Dec 05)

Brown as PM (Jun 07)

2010 General Election

Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through September 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

The election and the mess afterwards

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

Lab 2012

average: 41% Lab 2014

average:

35%

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Labour the most liked party, but Cameron most

liked leader

Miliband & the

Labour Party

Cameron & the

Conservative Party

% %

Total like him 31 48

Total do not like him 63 49

Total like his party 50 42

Total do not like his

party 44 55

Which of these statements come closest to your view of David Cameron/ Ed Miliband and the

Conservative/ Labour party?

Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader

HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)

Ed’s approval ratings are low – only better than

Michael Foot’s

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

CAMERON (2005-2010)

BLAIR (1994-1997)

MILIBAND (2010-2014)

HOWARD

(2003-2005)

Note: Data collected prior to September 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from September 2008 was via telephone

Net

sati

sfa

cti

on

Miliband does well on understanding problems, but

behind on PM qualities and personality

I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about

various politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to…

67%

55%

55%

53%

43%

48%

43%

39%

46%

30%

43%

22%

36%

53%

32%

20%

55%

20%

26%

17%

26%

42%

45%

26%

39%

31%

58%

19%

24%

39%

52%

67%

A capable leader

Understands the problems facing Britain

Good in a crisis

Has sound judgement

Out of touch with ordinary people

More style than substance

Miliband Cameron Clegg

Has got a lot of personality

Has a clear vision for Britain

Farage


Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th-9th September 2014

Split sample for Nick Clegg (496) and Nigel Farage (514)

But still Labour party has the most positive

image

I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about

various political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to…


80%

64%

39%

16%

24%

36%

24%

28%

38%

39%

12%

51%

18%

20%

56%

13%

32%

39%

43%

14%

48%

41%

31%

47%

27%

48%

52%

46%

23%

48%

51%

40%

61%

23%

35%

43%

Different to other parties

Extreme

Out of date

Fit to govern

Has a good team of leaders

Divided

Keeps its promises

Looks after the interests of…

Understands the problems…

Conservative party Labour party Liberal Democrat party UKIP

Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014. Split sample question for UKIP (514) and the Liberal

Democrats (496)

Meanwhile, there are three key issues, each

owned by a different party…

Looking ahead to the next General Election, which, if any, issues do you think will be very important

to you in helping you decide which party to vote for?*


5%

5%

6%

6%

6%

8%

10%

11%

12%

13%

23%

29%

30%

31%

Housing

Crime and ASB/ law and…

Pensions

Defence

Care for older/disabled

Taxation

Unemployment

Europe/ EU

Foreign policy/affairs

Benefits

Education/ schools

Healthcare/ NHS

Asylum and immigration

Economy

Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014

*Showing only answers above 5%; see computer tables for full results

The Conservatives increasing their lead on

the economy

Which party do you think has the best policies on managing the economy the Conservatives,

Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014

0

10

20

30

40

50

Ja

n-0

0M

ay-0

0

Sep

-00

Ja

n-0

1M

ay-0

1

Sep

-01

Ja

n-0

2M

ay-0

2

Sep

-02

Ja

n-0

3M

ay-0

3

Sep

-03

Ja

n-0

4M

ay-0

4

Sep

-04

Ja

n-0

5M

ay-0

5

Sep

-05

Ja

n-0

6M

ay-0

6

Sep

-06

Ja

n-0

7M

ay-0

7

Sep

-07

Ja

n-0

8M

ay-0

8

Sep

-08

Ja

n-0

9M

ay-0

9

Sep

-09

Ja

n-1

0M

ay-1

0

Sep

-10

Ja

n-1

1M

ay-1

1

Sep

-11

Ja

n-1

2M

ay-1

2

Sep

-12

Ja

n-1

3M

ay-1

3

Sep

-13

Ja

n-1

4M

ay-1

4

Sep

-14

Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP

20%

3%

45%

2%

UKIP is making the running on immigration

Which party do you think has the best policies on asylum/ immigration the Conservatives, Labour,

Liberal Democrats or some other party?


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Ja

n-0

3

Ma

y-0

3

Sep

-03

Ja

n-0

4

Ma

y-0

4

Sep

-04

Ja

n-0

5

Ma

y-0

5

Sep

-05

Ja

n-0

6

Ma

y-0

6

Sep

-06

Ja

n-0

7

Ma

y-0

7

Sep

-07

Ja

n-0

8

Ma

y-0

8

Sep

-08

Ja

n-0

9

Ma

y-0

9

Sep

-09

Ja

n-1

0

Ma

y-1

0

Sep

-10

Ja

n-1

1

Ma

y-1

1

Sep

-11

Ja

n-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Sep

-12

Ja

n-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Sep

-13

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Sep

-14


18%

9%

19% 20%

While the NHS is Labour’s strongest card

Which party do you think has the best policies on healthcare the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal

Democrats or some other party?


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Ja

n-0

0M

ay-0

0

Sep

-00

Ja

n-0

1M

ay-0

1

Sep

-01

Ja

n-0

2M

ay-0

2

Sep

-02

Ja

n-0

3M

ay-0

3

Sep

-03

Ja

n-0

4M

ay-0

4

Sep

-04

Ja

n-0

5M

ay-0

5

Sep

-05

Ja

n-0

6M

ay-0

6

Sep

-06

Ja

n-0

7M

ay-0

7

Sep

-07

Ja

n-0

8M

ay-0

8

Sep

-08

Ja

n-0

9M

ay-0

9

Sep

-09

Ja

n-1

0M

ay-1

0

Sep

-10

Ja

n-1

1M

ay-1

1

Sep

-11

Ja

n-1

2M

ay-1

2

Sep

-12

Ja

n-1

3M

ay-1

3

Sep

-13

Ja

n-1

4M

ay-1

4

Sep

-14


39%

4%

21%

1%

So what does that tell us for

2015?

The most unpredictable election in living

memory?

What are the precedents?

– The last time a government increased its vote share

after more than two years in office was 1955 (It has only

happened twice since 1900)

– The last time an opposition party was elected with an

overall majority after just a single parliament out of office

was 1931

– Two hung Parliaments: only once (1910) since 1832

– In 6 out of 9 elections since the War when one party had

a narrow poll lead one year out, the other party won.

In conclusion - change is coming (as always)

Real anxiety about the future – slow growth in the west

Risk of social polarisation – London is another country

Transparency and lack of trust…

Despite amazing technology…

Pressure to innovate is relentless

Greatest human need unchanged

Make time for yourself – you’ll need it

The challenge for managers and leaders– TRY SOMETHING NEW

Thank you [email protected]

benatipsosmori

the shock of the new? britain in 2015

News & Politics