The Silent Majority

African Americans and The Decades of Change

The popular perception is that most African Americans live in poverty in the inner city in the North

In 1959, that was true…

over 55% of African Americans lived below the poverty line

However, by 2010, there has been a 54% decrease in the numbers of African Americans living below the poverty line

The Further Decline in the Poverty Rate of African American

Poverty Rate Adjusted Rate % Difference

African-Americans 27.5% 25.4% -2.1%

– Source: Pew Research Center, Hispanic Poverty Rate Highest in New Supplemental Census Measure, November 8, 2011

And from then to now there has been an equally dramatic change in where we live

How much AA’s make for a living…

Since the passage of the Civil Rights Act in 1964, now for the 1st time in America, the Census shows that African Americans have an Affluent Class

The Growth of An Affluent African American Segment

1990 2009 % Difference

$50K+

% of Whites 40% 52% 23%

% of African-Americans 21% 33% 36%

$75K+

% of Whites 20% 33% 39%

% of African-Americans 8% 17% 53%

$100K+

% of Whites 10% 21% 52%

% of African-Americans 3% 9% 66%

– Source: U.S. Census,http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/cpstables/032010/hhinc/new06_000.htm 2009

Affluent African Americans*

• 2.4 million affluent African Americans (HHI over $75K)– Average income $122,000

• Affluents are 17% of all AA households– Control 45% of total $1 Trillion AA buying power

* African American Market in the U.S., Package Facts, 2008

Black Buying Power

• Black buying power is $1.1 Trillion

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

1990 2000 2006 2011

$318

$590

$799

$1,100

Black Buying Power (Billions)

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

2000 2006 2011

86%

151%

236%

63%

114%

175%

Black Buying Power (Percent Growth Since 1990)

Blacks Whites

Source: Selig Center for Economic Growth, Terry College for Business, The University of Georgia, 2007

Markets with The Highest Black Buying Power

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

States

86

72

62 61 61

52

4541

3835

Black Buying Power By State (Billions)

New York Texas California Georgia Florida Maryland Ilinois North Carolina Virginia New Jersey

• New York is ranked the highest for buying power of Blacks in the U.S.– Texas, California, Georgia, and Florida follow– New Jersey overtook Michigan this past year as having the 10th largest

buying power

Source: Selig Center for Economic Growth, Terry College for Business, The University of Georgia, 2007

States with the Highest Concentration of Black Buying Power

13.2%

14.4%

15.0%

17.5%

17.9%

19.6%

21.0%

22.1%

24.8%

28.9%

Virginia

North Carolina

Delaware

Alabama

South Carolina

Louisiana

Georgia

Maryland

Mississippi

District of Columbia

States with the Highest Concentration of Buying Power by Percentage (%)

*Source: Selig Center for Economic Growth, Terry College for Business, The University of Georgia, 2007

Growth in AA Entrepreneurs

2002 20070

500

1000

1500

2000

Number of Firms1,900

61% increase in the number of firms7% of these black businesses are in construction

(Thousands)

1,200

The growth in the number of AA businesses has outpaced the General Market and Hispanic firms

# Firms (Thousands) 2002 2007 % Chg

Black 1,198 1,922 61%

Hispanic 1,573 2,260 44%

Total US 22,975 27,093 18%

Top Ten StatesFor Black Owned Business

DC

Geo

rgia

Mar

yland

Miss

issipp

i

Louis

iana

Alabam

a

S Car

olina

N Car

olina

New Y

ork

Virgini

a

Total

US0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Black owned as a % of Total Businesses

Source: US Census Bureau, 2007 Survey of Business Owners - Released Feb 8, 2011

Survey of Black Business Owners

• Black owned businesses generated$137 billion nationally

• 46% or $63.7 Billion was generated in southern states

Source: US Census Bureau, 2007 Survey of Business Owners - Released Feb 8, 2011

What part of the country we live in…

“Reverse” Migration aka “Black Flight”

• In the wake of job erosion and an increased cost of living in the North, blacks have been seeking new opportunities down South

• States like Texas, Georgia and North Carolina have all seen increases in their black populations while states like Michigan, Illinois, New York and Ohio are seeing decreases

“a full-scale reversal”

• “Black Americans are moving back to the southern states from the north and the west in increasing numbers, causing a "full-scale reversal" of the great migration when they fled segregation, according to a study released yesterday

• “The report, by the Brookings Institution think tank, found that southern cities such as Atlanta, Dallas, Houston and Charlotte signaled the greatest increase in attracting black migrants during the 1990s – “New York, Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco all showed the steepest

declines

• "They are following networks back to the South, but they are also following job opportunities"

– William Frey, a demographer at the institution and author of the report, as told to the Los Angeles Times

Who are they?

• Blacks that are relocating to the South are typically– Age 21-40– College Educated– Singles / young families– Professionals & Entrepreneurs

• Primary reasons for relocating – First time home buyers– Employment opportunities– Better quality of life / cost of living– Better education for children– Cultural (getting back to their roots)

Source: Many U.S. Blacks Moving to South, Reversing TrendPublished: NY Times March 24, 2011

Continued AA Migration to the South

• Driven by state of the economy in Northern & Midwestern markets,the South has grown from 52.8% to 56% since the 1990 Census

Source: 2010 U.S. Census

Midwest

56%

18%

17%

South (23.4 million)

Midwest (7.4 million)

Northeast (7.2 million)

West (4.0 million)

West

South

9%Northeast

AA Population and Home Ownership

Population Home Ownership

56% 56%

18% 16%

9% 10%

17% 18%

African Americans Are Migrating to Warmer Climates In the South

Source: 2010 US Census

Change in Regional % Distribution of AA’s 2000 vs. 2010

Where in the South are African Americans ?

State % of Pop that is Black

District of Columbia 52%

Mississippi 38%

Louisiana 33%

Georgia 32%

Maryland 31%

South Carolina 29%

Alabama 27%

Source: 2010 Census

AA profile

• Shelton Hayes: Age 33• Family: Married, two children• Profession: Housing manager • Migrated from:

(Harlem) NYC to Atlanta

The Associated Press: In a reversal more black people moving back to south census data shows” – Feb 16 2011

• Reason for leaving NYC– “ We have a support network of family and friends

and there is good community involvement, with our kids involved with swimming, tennis and basketball. Plus, I see a lot of African Americans do well in a variety of professions

AA profile• Rev. Ronald Peters: Age 55• Family: Married, children• Profession: Pastor• Migrated from:

Pittsburgh to Charlotte

The Associated Press: In a reversal more black people moving back to south census data shows” – Feb 16 2011

AA profile

• Reason for leaving Pittsburgh:– “The Black Middle class is more hopeful in the

South than in the Northeast”

• Cicely Bland: Age 36• Family: Single• Profession: Owner, Publishing Company• Migrated from: New Jersey to Atlanta

.

Many U.S. blacks moving to the South, reversing the trend - New York Times, March 24 2011

AA profile

• Reason for leaving New Jersey:– “The business and political opportunities are here,” she

said. “You have a lot of African-Americans with a lot of influence, and they’re in my immediate networks.”

Where we now live…

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Own Rent

46%

54%

67%

33%

Blacks 2010: Home Ownership VS. Renting

African American General Market

Source: 2010 U.S. Census, 2006 MRI

Residential Ownership Changes

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Own Rent

50% 50%

76%

23%

Blacks 2006: Home Ownership VS. Renting

African American General Market

Due to the 2008 housing crisis, home ownership went down for everyone in America, but the African American drop was less dramatic than that of the GM

Cities vs. Suburbs

• Other than New York, Los Angles and Dallas, cities are declining or growing slower than the Metropolitan area (MSA)– MSAs include the city and its suburbs

10 Top US Cities % Change 2000 vs. 2010

City AA Pop 2000 AA Pop 2010 % change

New York, NY 2,130 2,089 -2%

Chicago, IL 1,065 888 -17%

Philadelphia, PA 656 662 1%

Detroit, MI 776 590 -24%

Houston, TX 494 498 1%

Memphis, TN 399 410 3%

Baltimore, MD 419 396 -5%

Los Angeles, CA 415 365 -12%

Washington DC 343 305 -11%

Dallas, TX 308 299 -3%

Source: 2010 US Census* With Total Population of 100,000 or More

African American % ChangeKey Cities vs. MSA’s

City City % Chg MSA % Chg

New York, NY -2% -8%

Chicago, IL -17% -4%

Philadelphia, PA 1% 3%

Detroit, MI -24% -17%

Houston, TX 1% 23%

Memphis, TN 3% 18%

Baltimore, MD -5% 10%

Los Angeles, CA -12% -37%

Washington DC -11% 10%

Dallas, TX -3% -4%

Atlanta -8% 40%

Source: 2010 US Census* With Total Population of 100,000 or More

Just looking at cities does not tellthe entire story• The 2010 Census shows us that to find out

where African Americans live we have to look at the entire MSA not just the City by itself

• Atlanta and Miami do not show up as top cities yet they are among the top 10 areas where African Americans live

African Americans are migrating tothe suburbs

Source: Nielsen, The State of the African-American Consumer

Example: Atlanta

Source: 2010 U.S. Census

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Metro Non-Metro

49% 51%

32%

68%

Blacks 2010: Metro VS. Suburban Living

African American General Market

Metro vs. Non-Metro

The 2010 Census showed for the first time more African Americans live in the suburbs, rather than in cities

20 Top African American MSA’s

MSA Total Pop Black Pop (000)

% Black/Index

New York – North NJ – Long Island 18,897 3,363 18%/132

Atlanta – Sandy Spring - Marietta 5,269 1,708 32%/233

Chicago – Joliet - Naperville 9,461 1,646 17%/125

Washington – Arlington - Alexandria 5,582 1,438 26%/191

Philadelphia – Camden - Wilmington 5,965 1,242 21%/154

Miami – Ft Laud. Pompano Beach 5,565 1,169 21%/154

Houston – Sugar Land - Baytown 5,947 1,026 17%/125

Detroit – Warren - Livonia 4,296 980 23%/169

Dallas – Fort Worth - Arlington 6,372 962 15%/110

Los Angeles – Long Beach – Santa Ana 12,829 908 7%/51

Source: 2010 US Census

20 Top African American MSA’s (cont.)

MSA Total Pop

Black Pop (000)

% Black/Index

Baltimore - Towson 2,710 779 29%/213

Memphis, TN-MS-AR 1,316 601 46%/338

Virginia Beach – Norfolk- New Port News

1,672 522 19%/140

St Louis, MO-IL 2,813 516 18%/132

Charlotte – Gastonia – Rock Hill 1,758 421 23%/169

Cleveland – Elyria - Mentor 2,077 417 20%/147

New Orleans – Metairie - Kenner 1,168 397 34%/250

Richmond 1,258 375 30%/221

San Francisco – Oakland - Fremont 4,335 364 8%/59

Orlando – Kissimmee - Sanford 2,134 345 16%/118

Source: 2010 US Census

Past/Present

• Talking about African Americans primarily as Northern urban city dwellers misses the evolution amongst AA’s

• Given the trends found in the 2010 Census, it may be better to talk about African Americans as Southern Surbanites

The reality is that most African Americans live a middle class life in the suburbs in the South

And for most of America’s news media, for official government perspectives, and for most non-blacks, African Americans who live a middle class life in the suburbs in the South are the Silent Majority of black folks