The Social Impact of the Austerity Measures on The Social Impact of the Austerity Measures on Households and CommunitiesHouseholds and Communities

The Context

• The faces behind financial planning…the ingredients for the “Perfect Storm”?

• Risk and mitigation…relative, absolute and material poverty

• Balancing the books…but busting the business

The faces behind financial planning…the ingredients for the “Perfect Storm”?

• 72% disability/major health concern

• 40% Incapacity Benefit or Employment and Support Allowance (ESA)

• 81% of households do not have anyone in employment

• 16% in receipt of JSA

• 60% (approx) have a household income (excluding HB) of less than £150 per week

• 42% report struggling to manage

• 41% say they run out of money before the end of the week/month

A profile of existing Housing Benefit claimants under-occupying current Social Housing (A National Study)

The faces behind financial planning…the ingredients for the “Perfect Storm”?

• 71% reported they estimate they will lose up to £15 per week in HB

• 29% stated they would lose ≥£15 week

• 52% stated they would find it ‘very difficult’ to make up the shortfall

• 31% stated they would find it “impossible” to make up the shortfall

• 35% think it probable that they will run into arrears

• Material deprivation – families will have (after Housing costs) £12 per family member, per day

Risk and mitigation…relative, absolute and material poverty

Losses from tax and benefit changes for different household types arising from tax and benefit changes to

be introduced between January 2011 and April 2014

-14.0% -12.0% -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0%

Single unemployed

Single employed

Lone parent, not w orking

Lone parent, w orking

Zero-earner couple w ithout children

Zero-earner couple w ith children

1-earner couple w ithout children

1-earner couple w ith children

2-earner couple w ithout children

2-earner couple w ith children

Single Pensioner

Couple Pensioner

Multi-family household w ithout children

Multi-family household w ith children

gain/loss as a % of net income

Introduced 2001 Introduced 2012 / 13 Introduced 2013 / 14 or 2014 / 15

Risk and mitigation…relative, absolute and material poverty

Average loss from tax and benefit changes to be introduced between Jan 2011 and April 2014 for households with children

by number of children with Universal Credit

-8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00%

A

B

C

D

E

F

Loss as a % of net come

Introduced in 2011

To be introduced in 2012-13

To be introduced in 2013-14 or2014-15

A – Households with children

B – of which = 1 child

C – of which = 2 children

D – of which = 3 children

E – of which = 4 or more children

F - All households

Modelling Communities Most at Predicted Risk

• Lower Super Output Areas are census based (about 1,500 people) and we’ve used the following datasets to look at the unequal distribution of risk within the Borough.

• Housing Benefit• Benefits Dependency• Indices of Multiple Deprivation• Indices of Deprivation Affecting Children• Crime data• Anti Social Behaviour Data• Schools related risk factors (ie permanent exclusion, free school

meals, etc)• Young people (10-17 year olds) coming to police attention• Young people in the criminal justice system• Community perceptions

Highest & Lowest Potential Risk LSOA’s in Sefton

The above map shows the 30% of highest risk LSOA’s and 30% lowest risk LSOA’s

Results of the Modelling; The Inequality of Risk

Schools

Stock Profile

Under-occupancy

capping

ACORN Deprivation impact on

older people

Welfare Ch/Centres

School Exclusions

Free School Meals

Deprivation impact on children

Deprivation (IMD)

GP & Health

Centres

CVS org

Crime

IB / ISJSA

ASB

Balancing the books…but busting the business

Child Poverty – 36% of children living in Bootle Parliamentary Constituency already living in Child Poverty (defined as income 60% below of Median Income, constant over 1 year). Children in poverty less likely to realise their potential; academically and as an adult.

Health Poverty – Predicted increase in Mental Health Services, Diet,

Fuel Poverty – Children living in “cold homes” twice as likely to have respiratory problems than children in “warm homes”.

Health Behaviours (Coping Strategies) – Risky health behaviours increase including smoking, alchol and drug misuse

Time Poverty – Increased stress with coping with reduced finances; “making every penny count”

All this feeds intergenerational disadvantage, transmitted, DNA like, generation to generation – The Poverty Gene.

Discussion Points

• Financial equality does not equate to an equal outcome!

• Equality Impact Statement – your model

• Impact and Implications – Understand the impact and predict the implications

• It’s a Social and Financial Model