The Social Life of Networking

Shigeki Goto

APAN-JPWaseda University

Scenario

1. Arther C. Clark, Blaise Pascal,not Flat Society, Adam Smith

2. Module structureResearch and Development

3. General Purpose TechnologyTunnel vision, Incentive

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Arthur C. ClarkeDec 16, 1917 — Mar 19, 2008

• Arthur C. Clarke, Visionary Author of the Space Age, Dies at 90

• Clarke Co-Authored '2001: A Space Odyssey,' Proposed Communications Satellites

3http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=4477184&page=1

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Feeling ofIntegration through the Internet• The concept of the integration

by Pascal gives some motif

to Science Fiction novels.

• Arthur C. Clarke,

Childhood’s End, 1953.

Quick responses to E-mail messages

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48 hours

24 hours

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Human society as one body

French philosopherBlaise Pascal (1623—1662)

Penseés (Thoughts) and short essays

Preface to the Treatise on the Vacuum

“Not only a single person advances in learning and studying, but also the whole human society advances as the universe is aging.”

http://www-groups.dcs.st-and.ac.uk/~history/PictDisplay/Pascal.html

NO!

All the people share the same information?

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The world is not flat.or

Equilibrium analysis of the distribution of information in

human societyby Shigeki Goto and Hisao Nojima

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Network society is not flat.

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2-layer

3-layer

Network society is not flat.

brain

gate keepers

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When each individual lives alone

Mr. A has10 books

Ms. B has10 books

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Concept of division of labor

Mr. A has10 books

Ms. B has10 books

Lend and

Borrow

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Mr. Aknowledge10

knowledge 10

1Total knowledge 60

cost10

cost 1

Mr. A

Total cost 15

Division of labor and others

1 1 1 110 10 10 10 10

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brain

large society

brain

end users

Theory of overflow

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The three-layer structure is economically reasonable.

Brains

Gate-keepers

End Users

E11...E 1n

End Users

E21...E2n

End Users

E31...E3n

B1

B2

B3B4

B5

GK1 GK2 GK3 GK4 GK5

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Characteristics of the structure• It is an informal structure. It does not follow the

structure of the company.• Three groups of people

– Brains: small number of people who have much knowledge– Gate Keepers: small number of local experts who can cover wide area

of topics– End Users: many people who have little knowledge

• Each brain recognizes who are other brains. • A brain has his/her specific field of knowledge.• Each gatekeeper does not know who are other

gatekeepers.• A gatekeeper does not have any specific area of

knowledge. He/she knows general information.

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Three-layer structure is found elsewhere

• Popular structure in human society

Examples education WWW Server--client bibliography distribution

Brain teacher original WEB page

server Originalpaper

factory

Gate- Keeper

teaching assistant

cache server request manager textbook Wholesaledistributor

End User student browser client paper retailer

Measurement

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Adam Smith and the Industrial Revolution

• His famous book:“An inquiry into the nature andcauses of the wealth of nations”

• The Industrial Revolution and transportation technology

Information and communication

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Lesson: division of labor• The concept was well described by Adam Smith.

Transportation supports the industrial revolution.• ICT will further promote the division of labor.

Many things are based on information.

• Network society is not simply flat.Layered structures are stable in a large society.

Brain

Broker =Gate-keeper

End User

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References:Equilibrium analysis of the three-layer structure

• S. Goto and H. Nojima,Equilibrium analysis of the distribution of information in human society,Artificial Intelligence, 75 (1995), pp.115—130.

• H. Nojima,Cognitive Analysis on Roles of Others in Problem Solving,Ph.D Thesis, Waseda University, March, 2003.

Division of Functions

• Main frame computers Client and Server P2P, Peer to Peer

• Telephone switch Routers and packet or frame swithes

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2

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Module Component

Module structure

Made by Company A Made by Company B

common components

Masahiko Aoki, Towards a Comparative Institutional Analysis, MIT Press, 2001.

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Module Structure

• Bicycle — Module Structure Automobile — not module structure Integrated Structure

• An automobile will be assembled from modules.An electric vehicle is similar to a computer.

• A motor-cycle is forced to take the module structure.

Takahiro Fujimoto, Business Management of Manufacturing, Kohbun-sha Shinsho 293, March, 2007. (in Japanese)

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The Internettruly moduled structure

multi-vendorOPEN

cf. Main-frame computers which are totally integrated.

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Should we welcome module structure?

• Low barrier for new-comersGood chances for small companiesBig enterprises do not win the game.

• Hot competitionBattle in niche markets

We cannot escape from this game.

Standard

salvation by faithreliance upon others

modules

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Strategy for the module game

• Low cost production vs. an innovative product

• We need Research and Development. Catching-up is not a good strategy.

A pioneer takes all.

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R&D and Risk management

• Success rate of R&D projects is very low.

95% of new projects will fail immediately.

• Risk management is an excellent mechanism.

Life insurance is meaningless for a single man.

• We need a good scheme for encouraging

challengers.

• It is a kind of division of labor.

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An episode in Silicon Valley• I have two US engineers in my group when

I worked at NTT Laboratories.

• They happened to work at the same start-up

company in Silicon Valley.

• I was asked to give a short talk to investors.

“I do not know their products. However, I do

know two talented engineers are working here.”

• I noticed that my speech went along a theory in

a text book for business management.

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Silicon Valley Modelby Prof Masahiko Aoki

• It did not work in Japan.

Follow-up trials mostly failed even in the

US.

• A venture capitalist and an entrepreneur do

help each other.

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Old Japanese modeland the future model

• Main bank

• Convoy of

companies

• market finance

• contracted officials

What is the new model?

old US model

Most issues are apparent in ICT area.We should solve them to make ICT stronger.

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ICT and Global Economy

• IT revolution is one of major historical transformations in human society.

• Kazuo Mizuno, Why people misunderstand the essence of global economy, Nikkei Press, 2007.

1517 Martin Luther posted famous 95 theses.1498 Vasco da Gama discovered the direct route from Europe to India.

Terminated Middle Ages, opened Modern Ages

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The Internet as an economic General Purpose Technology (GPT)

• “ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATIONS:General Purpose Technologies and Long Term Economic Growth".

• The Internet is not just a "product“ like automobiles or vacuum cleaners.The Internet is a transformative general purpose technology (GPT) whose impact touches all aspects of society.

http://www.oup.co.uk/isbn/0-19-929089-X

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Economic TransformationsGeneral Purpose Technologies and

Long-Term Economic Growth

• The authors of the book list the Internet as number 20 of the 24 General Purpose Technologies throughout human history.

• Authors: Richard G. Lipsey, Kenneth I. Carlaw, and Clifford T. Bekarhttp://www.sfu.ca/~rlipsey/res.html

Richard G. Lipsey, Emeritus Professor of Economics, Simon Fraser University, Kenneth I. Carlaw, Senior Lecturer, University of Canterbury, and Clifford T. Bekar, Assoc Professor of Economics, Lewis and Clark College

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24 Technologies

Chapter 5: A Survey of GPTs in Western History:

Part I 10,000 BC to 1450 AD

     Domestication of plants 9000—8000 BC Process

     Domestication of animals 8500—7500 BC Process

     Smelting of ore 8000—7000 BC Process 

     Wheel 4000—3000 BC Product

Writing 3400—3200 BC Process

     Bronze 2800 BC Product

     Iron 1200 BC Product

     Waterwheel Early medieval period Product

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24 Technologies

Chapter 6: A Survey Of GPTs in Western History:

Part II 1450 to 2010

The Three-Masted Sailing Ship 15th century Product

Printing 16th century Process

The Steam Engine Late 18th to early 19th century Product

Factory system Late 18th to early 19th century Organizational

Railway Mid 19th century Product

Iron steamship Mid 19th century Product

Internal combustion engine Late 19th century Product

Electricity Late 19th century Product

    

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24 Technologies

Chapter 6: A Survey Of GPTs in Western History:

Part II 1450 to 2010

Electricity Late 19th century Product

Motor vehicle 20th century Product

Airplane 20th century Product

Mass production, 20th century Organizational

continuous process, factory

Computer 20th century Product

Lean production 20th century

Organizational

Internet 20th century Product

Biotechnology 20th century Process

Nanotechnology Sometime in the 21st century Process

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Bill St. Arnaud CAnet – news, CANARIE, CA

• If the Internet is just a product then the role of government is pretty minimal.

• However if the Internet is a transformative general purpose technology then the public sector role is more important.

• GPTs begin as crude technologies with a limited number of uses, but they evolve into much more complex technologies with dramatic increases in the range of their use across the economy and in the range of economic outputs.

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Waterwheel-driven cam• making beer (987);• treating hemp (1040);• fulling cloth (1086);• tanning leather (1138);• Sawing logs (1204);• Making paper (1238);• Grinding mustard (1251);• Drawing wire (1351);• Grinding pigments (1348); and • Cutting metal (1443);

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UUCP is used between Japan and the US Old episode in 1986

• The first IP packet was sent in 1987.

• In 1986, the author worked at NTT Lab.

The total expenses for international phone call and telex

was 2,000 USD for the whole Lab.

UUCP to the US spent more than 2,000 USD.

• My boss called me.

Answer ） It is cheaper than an international trip.

• The boss called me a couple of months later.

Reality ） Both of phone bill and travel support increased.

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Global Economy Social Transformation

• 2nd Prize, Best Economics Book in 2007 Q1Q2.

• Kazuo Mizuno

Chief Economist, Mitsubishi UFJ Securities

• Why people misunderstand the essence of global economy

• Nikkei Press, March, 2007.

• His lecture at Nanzan University, Japanhttp://www.sc.mufg.jp/inv_info/ii_report/m_report/pdf/mr20070713.pdf

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Major changes in social structure

1. Emerging Empires, losing nation-states

= Imperialism

2. Real economy is overwhelmed by

Financial economy = Financialization

3. Diminishing uniformity, enlarged gap

or difference = Class-structured society

Big gap

IT revolution and Globalization

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Social Impact from/to ICT

• ICT, e.g. the Internet, brings Globalization.

• Globalization changed the structure of

world economy, politics and society.

• This social movement returns to ICT, or

it is already affecting ICT.

Why IT does not change the societyThe Social Life of Information

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２０００ ２００２

1. We are living with over-designed digital apparatuses.2. Simplified design does not reflect the real world.3. Tunnel design does not allow evolution.4. Agents do not learn.5. Paper is superior to text files.

By Kazuyo Katsuma ： (in Japanese) http://kazuyomugi.cocolog-nifty.com/point_of_view/2004/11/it_the_social_l.html 　

Seeking a new design

Amazon.co.jp Review

brave new world, 2008/2/7

By recluse   

depth of shallownesshttp://www.amazon.co.jp/%E9%80%B1%E5%88%8A-%E3%83%80%E3%82%A4%E3%83%A4%E3%83%A2%E3%83%B3%E3%83%89-2008%E5%B9%B4-9%E5%8F%B7-

%E9%9B%91%E8%AA%8C/dp/B0012Z6ZSI

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Feb 9,2008 ２００７

It is possible to make oneself Google?

Controlled or ControllingIncentive to Good Design

• Responsive societyBefore Web, we had Gopher, Before Gopher, we had Avenue.When we used UUCP, modem connection,we had a network programming language.

• Early adopterCISCO, SUN, Imagen: Stanford UniversityWeb and browser NCSA Mosaic: US gov.

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