the social science and communication challenges of early warnings

8/4/2019 The Social Science and Communication Challenges of Early Warnings

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The Social Science and challenges of implementing a strategy for'Early Warnings'


I expect you have heard of crowd dynamics within a sporting areastadium or in a busy train station……… but now think about a 5millionperson City being panicked into action not knowing where to go,what to do, how to do it…………………

We have considerable work to do in conjunction with setting up thescience and hardware to enable a comprehensive early warningsystem…… we must prepare the people, ‘the message receivers’ . Andthis include the ‘Administration’

This briefing presentation will quickly review : the types of warning; how the warnings can assist us; which are the most threatening; which we should prioritize; how we should develop a strategy to react; how we address the challenge to prepare society to receive

warnings; what technology can we install to provide warnings; what technology we can use to deliver the warning messages.

We have five different types of warning to consider.1. Real time early warning; when the event has actually started

but has yet to arrive at your location2. Early Warning; when the event is known that it will happen

imminently3. Early Warning Forecast that the event will happen with

consequence in the future.4. Reliable prediction of an imminent event without precise

timings.5. Prediction of an event which may or may not happen.

Why do I categorize warnings? I categorize so that we can identifyand initiate or activate the Urgency that either society or




administrations or critical infrastructure needs to receive and actupon the warning.It’s down to time scales of the event happening & down to theurgency in which a sector within society must react either to mitigate,minimize, prepare for or to avoid the event.

So let’s review in what circumstance each type of warning can be of assistance to us. They all have a critical importance if we are to buildresilience into our communities and if we are to minimize not onlypotentially Natural Hazard Disasters but also manmade disasters fromwithin industry or by us changing our environment. You will note thatthese categories’ merge and mingle & simply offer a time line of potential event. I do not suggest that all sectors will prioritize areaction in the same order.

1. Real Time Early Warnings I suggest are those in progress withimminent destructive power i.e. Tsunami, volcano, cyclone, wildfire, flash flood, glacier breakout, landslide and of coarseearthquake.When these events activate, we will want to know scale andcountdown to impact. We will want to know the procedure toprotect ourselves and minimize the effects upon criticalinfrastructure.Can we provide real time early warnings for all of these? Yeswe can now. But more on that later.

2. Early Warnings refer to events beginning to happen, identifiedthrough a buildup of activity with a degree of uncertainty of how or to what scale it will affect you, such as an approachingcyclone, a developing flood, a remote bush fire, a volcanorumbling. These events should already be prepared for,

practiced within society and should not come as a surprise.3. Early Warning Forecast provides warning of longer term events

i.e. the beginning of the hurricane/ cyclone season, the tornadoseason, a dormant but live volcano known to periodicallyactivate, and of course Climate Change, and active seismicfaultlines. These events have been accepted as threats to




society and require administrations and society to build intotheir lives prepared contingency plans and mitigation strategies.

4. Reliable Prediction is using relatively new and developingscience which has an increasing degree of reliability i.e. thethreat of a local landslide, the potential of an earthquake. Yesthis is possible and we have experienced considerable successrates recently through a variety of science, but I warn you, if we continue to ignore this developing and ever increasing ‘reliable science’ , then we potentially leave many thousands inunnecessary risk. I ask we don’t only think of science to providethese reliable predictions, nature itself offers some signs; wesimply need to understand how to interpret. The type of eventsincluded within this category must not only be within acontingency plan but also within a ‘society preparednessprogram’ .

5. Prediction is a little more uncertain, coming from a variety of sources, not only science. We should not ignore them, but weshould keep them in context and certainly build them into anycontingency review plan

So which are most threatening?o It is either scale, surprise or extended period that creates

the bigger threats to communities.o The size of flood or Earthquake or Tsunamio The lack of warning of the earthquake or landslide or

tornadoo The duration of flooding or a of storm or of a drought

In the short term is has always been the Earthquake that causesbiggest devastation not only to infrastructure but to the population

also. The less frequent Tsunami can equally cause high casualties butover a larger area.

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Prioritizationo This must address the lack of early warnings for the

potential instant devastating events such as Earthquakesand Tsunamis and Tornados, Flash Floods, Landslides.

However this does not mean that the safe build programs areomitted, withdrawn or scaled down or that DR Education is cut back and even not initiated. All approaches to creating a resilientcommunity must complement each other and need to work in parallelwith full collaboration

how we should develop a strategy to react to an early warning atadministration level;

o realization and perception of risk is a priority. Fact find of theRisk and of the options to mitigate. This may requireintegrating a variety of systems within one, not incompetition but to enhance and maximize the potential of providing early warnings

how we address the challenge to prepare society to receivewarnings;

o short , medium and long term approaches are needed.Training and dialogue are key factors, developing a culturewithin society of acceptance to participate, to takeownership

o There will be different preparations for each sector of society, ‘domestic’ to ‘security’ to ‘office’ to ‘industry’ to ‘critical infrastructure’ to ‘administration’

o It is needing a totally different approach to how communitiesdrill and exercise each year to anything considered orachieved to date.

o As a policy If communities drilled for two days per year onrandom occasions, then when a reliable prediction wasreceived, administrations could activate a drill, to preparethe community. No panic. Then when the actual event




commenced the ‘real time early warning system’ wouldsimply alert them to the fact providing intelligent informationenabling communities and individuals to take the best courseof action. Again with No panic.

o Presently during the past two years reliable predictionsystems have forecast and been correct within five days of actual occurrence; consequently:

o Emergency services would remain on standby with all drillsfor upto five days, as a matter of course or until the event,critical infrastructure can prepare, release pressure fromdams, ensure maintenance materials are cleared, cancelleave, dispatch satellite groups, strengthen borders andsecure facilities, military to go on alert, mothballed logisticsprepared, hospitals will be aware to avoid critical operationsetc, schools can take advantage to include the students inpreparations.

o The question is does society have the ‘will’, the ‘need’, the ‘enthusiasm’ to participate? Can we build a truly resilientculture within society?

o Or put another way, can society afford not to prepare…what cost is the life of a dearest.

o We hear the critique that industry can not afford down daysof production and service but…….

o Can Industry and commerce afford not to participate? Theconsequences are staggering both in $cost and to society asa whole. £1billion for only 25,000 injured and 33 dead! Nottaking into account damage to infrastructure and criticalservices.

what technology can we install to provide warnings;o Ideally it requires a system that can integrate a wide range

of early warning alarms, this save duplication, saves cost, ismore easily managed and allows for secondary eventwarnings during crisis. Devices need to state of the art,easily compatible and controlled centrally and remotely if a




national or regional net work is to be set up. SOLUZIONSystems offers all requirements

what technology do we need to use to deliver the warningmessages.

o Communications systems must be robust, supported even if without direct power. The system must be capable of beingreceived by all people whether in their homes, cars, officesand industry. Or indeed walking in the street. SOLUZIONSystems offers all requirements.

Discussion note by Garry de la Pomerai presented in Bangkok July 2011

the social science and communication challenges of early warnings

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