VOL. HI SHANGHAI. OCTOBER 1942

THE SOUTHERN ROUTEBy KLAUS MEHNERT

When" became knoum recenIly I1tM an Italian plane had jlcton from Europeto Japan IItId bac1l agtJin, there UlIJot rejoicing among aU the member. oj 1M AN becawetiler COMidttretIIhi8 ftlg~ a8 a 8YmboI Jor the ruumplion oj dired connedion.t betwunEurope IItId BaM Aria. Phe European and 1M A.iatio end8 oj 1M AN have.hown I1tM tMy are abZIl, indir1iclually and witlwul dired connedion.t,to inflict tkJeat after tkJeat upon Ih/lir lmIlmw. Y III tlall", i8 no doubt I1tM theuIabli8hmmt oj dired communioalioM would add tnl'MndoruZy to tlallir 8IrengtIa.

Until r-mly, Jew.JJllOPk Il1IllJ' ION a"lf t1wug1tt to t.\i8 mGIUr, a8 " 8Umea tooJar oJJ IItId unrlllJl. Huwllver, 8i_ the oooupation oj Bumta, the Anaaman.t, and theNicobar. by Japan: .inu tlall appeara_ oj Japanue war.hi". ift the India" OCM":and 8i_ Mar.hal Rommel'. dnN lotDarlI 1M~ Oanallltld Mar.hal _ Bock'.drive toward IAe Oa8pian Sea, 1M qutJ8lion ariH8 with increa8ing Jreqrwn,cy: willthere .om bll a dired connedion bsttDem 1M AN polDer.'

Tlall objtJCI oj thi8 arliole i8 to "'y the~ involflfld with 1M opening 'fJja conMCIion bIlt10un EaM Aria and Bwope tIio the Indian OCMn.

No. 4.

A NYONE who speaks of the rest0ra-tion of large-scale communicationsbetween Europe and Asia has the

southern sea route around .A&ia in mind.For that reason, we shall direct ourattention to the Indian Ocean, which,although it is the third largest ocean inthe world and, with its 30 million squaremiles, almost three times the size ofAfrica, is far less known than other seas.- In its political history, the IndianOcean differs fundamentally from all the-other seas. While we find a constant inter-mingling of numerous political and militaryforces in the Atlantic and the Pacific, to.say nothing of the Mediterranean and theBaltic, the Indian Ocean has, during thelast thousand years, always been dom-inated by a single power at one time,if one excepts. the periods of transition;Its history consists of three layers, so-to speak: the Arabian/Mohammedan, thePortuguese, and the British.

KORAN AND SWORD

In the centuries after Islam arose,-Arabian and other Mohammedan peoplesoverran the Indian Ocean in an irresistible

mixture of mission-, merchant-, and war-rior-spirit. As the Indian Ocean hadpreviously not been embraced by onepower, they found it politically un-organized, and nowhere did they- comeup against any large-scale resistance.Hence they had only to conduct localwars, and by the end of the fifteenthcentury they possessed all the key posi-tions of the ocean, as shown in Map I.

Of course, this did not mean that theyheld all the coasts with their hinterland.It was often only a small ruling group ofMoslems which seized the power atstrategic points, without bothering muchabout what happened on the remainingstretches of coast (which had little valuefor trade) or in the interior. They were8aliafled Q,8 long as their 8hip8 firmly heldthe maritime ccmtrol of the Indian. Ocean.and ita cen.ter8 of commerce. The slightresistance of the native population andthe obvious fact that no serious opponentcould arise against them in the entireIndian Ocean caused them to neglectsafeguarding their position from a militarypoint of view. They could not suspect

•212 THE XXth CENTURY

mE BRITISH PERIOD

The Dutch and English fleets appearedin the Indian Ocean as enemies of thePortuguese and, at the same time, 808rivals of each other. At first they wentafter everything Portuguese that theycould lay their hands on. To the sameextent, however, to which the might of

that one day enemies would force their W8o8 the resale to northern Europe of theway into their ocean from maside. goods which the Portuguese ships brought

to Lisbon from the Indian Ocean. WhenSpain excluded the Dutch from Lisbon,they decided to obtain the goods in theircountries of origin. Together with theirEnglish a.llies, they penetrated tho Por-tuguese lake, which had hitherto bC

THE SOUTHERN ROUTE 21'

Sewn Yean' War

Kapo1eonlo Wan

Portugal melted away, the rivalry be-tween the newcomers grew more acuteand turned into wars. Then a delimita-tion was gradually formed, by whichthe Dutch got the East Indianarchipelago, Capetown, Cachin, Ceylon, andMalacca, among other less importantplaces, while the English held all the rest.

Other European states had only a smallshare in the fate of the Indian Ocean.For a while, the French had a strongposition in India and on the islands ofthe tIouthwestem put of the ocean, fromwhich, however, they were ousted by theEnglish. They ahto oocupied Madagascarand a emall part of Bomaliland, with theharbor of Djibouti. Colonies were ac-quired by Italy ill Somaliland and EritreaaDd by Germany ill East Africa.

»tgJand wanted to have the Indiano-n eatirely to herself, and she made1118 of every European war to enrichherself. While the European continentW&8 constantly tearing itself to pieces infratricidal wars, the British Empire grew.

nus is how England's possessions in theIDdian Ocean profited by Europe's wars:

War OOtmlry Lo. IQ Ettgltmd

Alm~t aU po8llIllI-llioD in India

MauritiusRodriguezChagoe b.8eyche1Jee r..

Netbedauds Capo 0010117CochinCeylonMalaooa

Fint. World War Germany Ean AfricaFurthermore, England has made good use

of the second World War by temporarilyoocupying not only Italian Somaliland andEritrea but also parts of Madagascar.

So, in the end, all the shores of theIndian Ocean, with the exception of theDutch East Indies, Mozambique (Por-tuguese), Madagascar (French), and afew other unimportant po88e88ions, wereill British hands. The Dutch loeses wereespecially tragic. When Napoleon in-cluded Holland in his empire, Englanddeclared that she must consider Hollandas an enemy and took away her posses-sions with a similar justification withwhich she has now occupied parts of theFrench colonial empire: otherwise, she

reasoned, Napoleon might have occupiedthese territories. When Napoleon's su-premacy came to an end, however, Eng-land had no thought of returning theterritories which she had occupied "forprotection." (Malacca lost its importanceshortly afterwards to its neighboJ'Singapore.) In spite of these unfortunateexperiences with England, Holland has inthis war voluntarily done that whichPortugal had to be forced to do in 1581:she chained the fate of her remainingcolonial possessions to a gravely under-mined empire. The result has been theloss of all her rich possessions in the EastIndian archipelago.

The Portuguese had built up theirempire in the Indian Ocean via the routearound Africa. Since there was no SuezCanal in those days, they paid little at-tention to the northwestern part of theocean, and, since Australia had not yetbeen discovered, no attention at all to itssoutheastern part. Although they triedto capture Aden, they did not press thisattempt, and finally they were satisfiedwith the key position of Hormuz on thePersian Gulf. Compared with the Por-tuguese, British ambition in the IndianOcean went much further. With a tenac-ity and farsightedness which one cannotfail to admire, although one might de-plore the methods, England built up aDempire that, as can be seen from Map II,completely dominated the Indian Oceanwith all its approaches.

If an inhabitant of Mars were to beshown a map of the Indian Ocean, hecould, if he understood the basic principlesof strategy, immediately say, withoutany knowledge of the history of this ocean,at which points the dominating powerwould establish its fortified bases. If welook at the British possessions in theIndian Ocean one by one, we find thatthe English have planted their flag atevery strategic point.

THE SXVEN PILLARS OF WISOOM

The most important approach to theIndian Ocean, that through the SuezCanal and the Red Sea, is completely inthe hands of the British. whose supremacyis supported by seven pillars: Egypt, the

214 THE XXth CENTURY

Sudan, Perim, Aden, Somaliland, andKuria Muria. For her domination of thissea ronte, England could not in her wildestdreams have imagined anything moreperfect than that which Nature hassupplied with the island of Perim. It issituated at the narrowest part of theStrait of Bab el Mandeb between Africaand Arabia, two miles off the Arabiancoast. Peri III po~'esses a good harborformed by an old crater open towlLrd thesouthwest. The island was annexed byEngland in 1857 in expectation of thebuilding of the Suez Canal and was laterfortified.

But an island has some disadvantages,and it is as well to have more than onestring to one's bow. Fortunately forEngland, there was the ideal harbor ofAden on the south coast of Arabia, l\hundred miles east of the Strait of Babel Ma,ndeb. Not far from that place,where once the Queen of Sheba reigned,a British ship was stranded in 1837. Itwas Sltid in London that its crew had beentreated in an unfriendly manner. Thishad to be avenged. Two years later,Aden was captured by a British fleet andwas annexed. After having first beenplaced under the administration of British

Und",. era-ish Coni-rot e.~w••n1939 and 1942

Axi. Advone.

Map 11

BRITISH POSS"~SSTONS IN THE lNDl.~ OCEANTIle pre.British owners are shown in parenthesis (1"=France, G=Oermany, 1= Italy,

K=:Netherll\nds. P=Portugal). AreWl around the Indian OCC8n owned up to 19.. 2 hy other powerst.hllD tho Briti.sh are shown in white with the {ull names or their owners in parenthesis

THE SOUTHERN ROUTE t15

INDIRECT RULB

The northern branch of the greatEurope/Asia highway. that going to thePersian Gull, is also well oontrolled.Here Great Britain has built up her posi-tion, not so much on the poesession ofher own bases, as on the control of thecoastal states, with the object of pre-venting other powers from gaining a foot-hold there. 'fhe English succeeded inbreaking the Portuguese hold on thePersian Gulf in 1622, when shipe of theEast India Company attacked Hormuz inthe midst of peace and destroyed it.This rather embarrassed King James ofEngland, not because of any moral qualmshe may have had, but because the Princeof Wales was to marry a princess of Spain-Portugal. However, the royal conscience\\'as salved by the East India Companywith £10,000. Since then, no seriouscompetitor has set foot in the PersianGulf.

ligious customs were a curious mixture ofvarious religions. When Father Vincenzoasked one woman what she was called,she replied: "Mary." And the next onel"Mary, too." The third, fourth, andfifth were also called Mary, and it turnedout that all the women bore this name.In spite of the religious fervor evidencedby this strange custom, Islam neverthelesslater on gained the upper hand here.

When the Suez Canal was being built,. England annexed the

..--------- island in 1886. If anyonewants to know how thistook place, he has only tolook up "Sokotra" (So-cotra) in the EncyclopediaBritannica (eleventh edi-tion). There he will findthe laconic statement:

"The opening of the Suez Canal routeled to the island being securedfor Great Britain." It would be im-possible to express more clearly how theEnglishman considered the growth of hisempire as a thing of the utmost natural-ness. "The opening of the Suez Canalroute led to .... " That tells the wholestory.

EVERYONE CALLED MARY

Consisting chiefly of a plateau 1,500feet high and mountains rising upto 5,000 feet, Socotra in ancient Egyptiantimes supplied a great deal of incense andwas known to the world of those daysas the "Terraces of Incense." When. thePortuguese captured the island in 1507,they discovered that part of the popula-tion "'as composed of Christians, whohad in the dim put come to Socotra by80me means (rom the Near Eut. In-cidentally, the Portuguese abandoned So-cotra again four years later, since it wasof only limited value before the buildingof the Suez Canal.

In the seventeenth century, Christianroissionaries came to the island. Theyfound that some of the people stm calledthemselves Christians, although their re-

India, it was made a crown colony withits own governor in 1937. To make quitesure, Aden's vast hinterland, embracingthe entire southeastern part of Arabia,southeast of the line Bab el Mandeb /Bahrein, has been placed under Britishrule. Aden's chief weakness is its lack offresh water. It must depend partly onrain water collected in oisterns.

In order to render their position perfect,the British wanted possessions on theAfrican side, too, andso that part of Somali-land which borders onthe Gull of Aden wasmade a British pro-tectorate in the years1884/97. Through therecent occupation ofItalian Somaliland and ofthe Italian possession of Eritrea, the Britishpossessions have been further extended,and dark clouds have gathered over FrenchSomaliland and the town of Djibouti.

England also took the islands at themouth of the Golf of Aden. In 18M, thefive high, rocky islands known by thename of Kuria Muria were occupied bythe British. Although they did not domuch to fortify the islands, they achievedtheir main purpose, namely, to preventothers from gaining a foothold t·here.

!l8 THE XXth CENTURY

The most important coastal state, Iran(formerly Persia), has been Imder Britishcontrol since the early nineteenth century.Whenever the Persians showed a will oftheir own, there was war. In 1907,British supremacy in southern Persia wasrecognized even by England's most seriousrival-Russia. However, the able andambitious ruler who mounted the PeJ'flianthrone in 1925 under the name of RezaShah Pahlevi, succeeded, by skillfullyplaying off the British and the Bolsheyi.ksagainst each other, in making his countrymdependcnt again. Of course, this madehim a thorn in the flesh of the British.So the first opportunity which presenteditself-the present war and the alliancebetween Britain and the Soviet Union-was used to remove the Shah and toreoccupy southern Persia, which possessesadded importance by virtue of its oilwells. However, the triumph was marredby the fact that the Soviet Union simul-taneously sent her soldiers into northernIran. The Anglo-Russian rivalry inIran continues.

Iraq, with its great harbor of Basra, wastaken away from Turkey in the GreatWar and made a British mandate. It istrue that it was recognized as an in-dependent state by England in 1927.But, as soon as it showed that it waaserious about its independence, British and,recently, American troops marched intothe country. Saudi ·AMbia has shownmore skill at maintaining its independence;but the Gulf's west coast,- which belongsto Sandi Arabia, has no harbors and isof no etrategio importance. Altho1t~hthe state of Oman, which owns a largepart of the Arabian coast, haa its ownsultan, it is actually under th.. BritishIndian Government, which has a Britishresident in the capital and harbor townof Muscat.

JUST IN OASE

The English did not care to rely entirelyon this indirect control of the PersianGulf. For that reason, they took po68tl8-sion of the Bahrein Islanw in the latterpart of the nineteenth century. Theseislands, which had been ruled by Arabiansheiks since the Portuguese had been

driven out in 1622, have risen considerablyin importance during the last few yearsthrough the discovery of large oil depositsand their exploitation.

"Just in case," England occupied the-town of Basidu at the western end of theisland of Kishm and the island of Abu-Musa. Neither is at present of any im-portance but could in an emergency be-developed into a base. To the east ofthe strait of Hormuz she controls the-coastal area of Jask. In this way, theBritish have provided for all eventualities,even if their policy of indirect dominationof the Persian Gulf should one day founder.

The central part of the great shippingroute through the Indian Ocean is con-trolled by England through the po8Be88ionof Ceylon. When Ceylon fell to Englandthrough the Vienna peace treaty of 1816,the King of Ceylon, who had ruled underDutch supreIQ,B.Cy and could look back ona royal family tree two thousand yearsold, waa deposed and exiled. The greatcommercial port of Colombo and the navalport of Trincomalee, one of the largest.natural harbors in the world, are the twO'supports of British rule. Trinoomalee-Was a British naval and military stationuntil 1905, an. haa been made one againsince 1938.

We need not follow the shipping routefurther east, since its next stations, Burma,the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, the:Malayan Peninsula, the Straits of Malac-ca, and Singapore (Shonan) no longerbelong to Great Britain.

SWORD AND DOWRY

The northern flank of the great shippingroute waa secared by England throughthe possession of India. The events ofthe last few monthe; the Japanese advanceand the constantly increasing unrest inIndia, have made the loss of this richstorehouse of men and raw materials byEngland very probable. But for themoment India still serves as a base forBritish warships and planes.

Since the very first English naval vic-tories against the Portuguese in the earlyseventeenth century, the English step bystep conquered one harbor and one prov-

THE SOUTHERN ROUTE 217

ince after another, until finally all IndiaW88 under their mIe. They have builtup a strong POSition on her c088ts. But itis no longer harbors like Goa, the firstEuropean possession on Indian soil andonce the seat of an archbishop (withauthority over the bishops of East Africa,Malacca, Macao, Nanking, Peking, andJapan!), which play the same importantpart 88 in Arabian and Portuguesetimes.

Now India has a new constellation of fourharbors. These are, from west to east:first, Karachi, the most important harborin Northwest India, in British handssince 1843 and equipped with good piers.Second comes Bombay, the largest porton the west C088t of India, with hugedocks and many railway connections tothe interior. Bombay is a good exampleof the three strata in the history of theIndian Ocean. Till 1524, the city wasunder Ard.bian rule, then under Portuguese,and, when Charles IT of England marriedthe Infanta Catherina of Portugal. sheW88 persuaded to preeent her royal 8pOU88with Bombay 88 part of her dowry.Next oomes Madras, British since 1640, theleading harbor of the eaat ooast in spiteof its unfavorable shaUow shores. Andfourth, Calcutta, the great center of in-dustry which, founded in 1690 by theEnglish near the mouths of the Gangesand the Brahmaputra, is today one of thebusiest ports of the world, where the docksextend for more than ten miles along theHooghly River.

To the west of the southernmost pointof India and near the main shipping routelie the Laocadive Islands. Their name isderived from the Malabar word for U ahundred thousand islands." This, how-ever, is an exaggeration, since aotuaUythere are only thirteen, eight of whichare inhabited. They, too, belonged firstto the Arabs, then the Portuguese, andfinally the English, who placed themunder the British Indian administra-tion.

'l'JD: TWO 80UTJIBBN BN'l'B.ANCBS

South of the great shipping ronte, the~phical conditions are opposite to

thoee in the north. In the south, thereis no continent far and wide, and theocean stret

218 THE XXt.h CENTURY

just as important as the continental ones.Port Louis on Mauritius is one of the bestharbors in the Indian Ocean. In addition,the island has the strategic advantage ofbeing surrounded almost entirely by areef, which renders hostile landings moredifficult. Uninhabited at the time of itsdiscovery by the Portuguese, it wastemporarily held by the Dutch and namedafter Maurice of Na.ssa.u. In 1715, Mauri-tius was occupied by the French, renamedlIe de France, and used for the cultivationof spices. During the Napoleonic Ware,France lost numerous islands in the IndianOcean to England, among them also thisone, which was given its old name ofMauritius again.

Mauritius would be a paradise if it werenot for its ill-famed, savage "Mauritiushurricanes." Moreover, Mauritius hasbeen aftlicted by a number of unusuallyviolent epidemics. In 1854, for instance,17,000 people died of cholera, and 30,000of malaria in 1867. The population wasorigin&1ly composed mainly of FrenchCreoles. For that reason the Frenchlanguage and the Catholic faith are stillpredominant on the island. During thelast few decades, however, the immigra-tion of other races, especially of Indians,has been very considerable. The factthat today almost three quarters of thepopulation are Indian, sharing the fate ofIndia with their hearts, has an unfavorableeffect on Great Britain's position inMauritius. Incidentally,.it is on Mauritiusthat the deposed Reza. Shah Pahlevi is"vacationing."

Three hundred and forty-four miles tothe east of Mauritius there is the islandof Rodriguez. It was populated by' theFrench from Mauritius and later taken bythe British. The population is made upchiefly of the descendants of Mricanslaves.

Between Rodriguez and Ceylon there isthe Chagos archipelago with the island ofDiego Garcia, which possesses a fineharbor formed by coral barriers andaccessible even to large ships. This groupW:l8 also origin&1ly settled by the French

and is now administrated from Mauritius.It is important because it is situated atthe point where the shipping route Cape-town!Colombo crosses that from Adento Fremantle and has for that reasonbeen made a coaling station.

The Maldive Islands, whose sultan istributary to the British administration inCeylon, are north of the Chagos Islandsand near the shippingroute Aden IColombo.The northernmost island of this group,lying almost on the shipping route, isMinikoi, whose highest elevation is onlynineteen feet above sea level.

BURNT SPIOES

The domination of the eastern part ofthe Indian Ocean is made easier for Eng-land by the possession of the Seychelles,a group of ninety islands. The mainisland is Mahe with the excellent port ofViotoria, which is at the same time thecapital of the Seychelles. Uninhabitedwhen discovered by the Portuguese, theislands were annexed by France in 1742and named after a high official at thecourt of Louis XIV. Since the Frenchwere not successful in growing spices onMauritius because of the hurricanes, butstill hoped to obtain large profits frombreaking the Dutch spice monopoly, theysecretly began to cultivate spices on theSeyohelles, islands that did not sufferfrom hurricanes. There was great con-sternation when one day a ship appearedflying the English flag. In order to keeptheir fragrant secret, they set fire to thespice plantations. Iil the end, it turnedout that the vessel was a French slaveship, sailing under the English flag onaccount of her fear of English ships.

Like the other islands, the Seychellesalso fell to England in the NapoleonioWars. At first they were under theMauritius administration, till in 1903 theybecame a crown colony with their'· owngovernor. At the beginning of this' cenitury, they gained a certain tragio fameas the place of exile for three Mrican kingsdeposed by the British, the kings .ofAshanti, Uganda, and Unyoro_

'IDE SOU'IBERN ROUTE !2J

BRITAIN'S INDIAN OCEAN EMPIRE

WHO RULES THE WAVES!

The first prerequisite, the control of the·eastern entrance to the Indian Ocean, has.been fulfilled by Japan through the captureof Singapore and the entire northeasternpart of the ooean. The second prerequi--

Of OOU1'88, it will not be poesible to-prevent a guerrilla war, especially on the·part of Allied submarines. But long-before England and the USA, who were·quite unprepared for this development of-the war, have created a really efficient·submarine arm, the war will, we hope,be over. Furthermore, the fall of Alex··andria would relieve a considerable part.of the Italian Navy from ita duties in the'Mediterranean and enable it to move into·the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.

Which bases, the reader will ask, willithe Axis have to occupy in order to saf~guard the sea routel We do not knowhow the naval authorities would answer'this question. The answer of the his- .torian and the political obeerver would be·more or less as follows:

a long time. Portuguese rule over theocean was destroyed with the 1088 of thePortuguese fleet and a few key positions(especially Ma.lacca, Ceylon, Hormuz, andCochin), although the Portuguese stillretain remnanta of their possessions in theIndian Ocean to this day. In the sameway, the destruction of British supremacywould only require the removal of thebulk of the British fleet and the occupationof a few key positions. There'is, however.one difterenoe as compared with formertimes: air bases from which the Indiansea route might be disrupted must alaobe occupied or destroyed.

The Axis is well on the way towardsbreaking British naval supremacy in theIndian Ocean. This process need not.necessarily take place in the Indian Oceanitself. 'Wherever British-and, in viewof their partnership, American-warships;are sunk, whether in Pearl Harbor, theMediterranean, at Cape Kuantan, in theNorth Sea, at the Solomon Islands, or inthe Atlantic, British naval supremacyover the Indian Ocean is being at-tacked.

9,600,0006,1()(I,OOO

138,0003,366.0001,000,000

3",000460,000

8,000,00016,000,000

367,0001,200

12,000100

1500,000

7,000,0002,900,000

120,000360,000,000

6,.00,00070,00014,00010,00010,000

14,870,0006.uo,OOO

466,000415,000

31,000800

7,300

6,807,273 439,237,.00

300,000lU,200

2321,808,679

U,332115746

J,lI08U6

181,81061,171

976,920720166.,41

Total

UnioD 01 8out.b AfricaTaapuyib .ZanP~ .X-,. .Italian Soma1iland .British Somaliland "Eriu- .Anglo.Egyptian SudanEgypt .AdID(wit.b hinterlaDd)Perim .Boootra •...........Koria Moria b. . .OIDaD .Southern Iran

(iocl. Juk) .1nIq •.............&bnliDb .India .Ceylon •...........Maldive Ia. . .Laooadivo 1.. . .A.......... &. ..Nioober IL ••....••BUI'IDA ••••••••••••Britiab lIalaya ....W.- AuMralia •..•Kaaritiua .8eycbellee Ia. . .CbaIoe I •...........R.oclriguM .

(including th~ arMII oocupied lIiDce 1939 aodtoo. 1_ in 1M2)

Sq. nMlu PO'ptI1IJlitm

.72,660360,000

MO22.,900190,00068,000.6,000

969,800383,000.us,OOO

61,380

2882,000

This long list of British possessions inthe Indian Ocean, shown in our table, isimpressive. But it must not be over-estimated. The history of the IndianOcean, which we nave purposely referredto again and again in our study, showsthat, to dominate thi8 ouan, it i8 8U1ficientto po88U8 naval IfUpremacy and a few8traUgic blues. The Arabian period in theIndian Ocean came to an end with thedestruction of the Arabian Heet and the1088 of a few bases (especially Sofala,Zanzibar, Hormuz, Callcut, and Ma1acca)during the ten years from 1501 to 1511,although the major part of the coast81t'QJ remained under .Arabian control for

•

ti2 THE XXth CENTURY

The new British attack on Madagascaron September 10 shows that the Britishfully realize the importance of the IndianOcean and the acute ~r of its loss.With reference to the recent Americanlandings on the west coast of Africa, the

Lord Halifax's anxiety is well founded.The opening of an Axis shipping routethrough the Indian Ocean would be acatastrophe for the Allies. Perhaps theyhave managed 80 far to persuade them-selves that they can defeat each end ofthe Axis one at a time. But even theyknow that their chances are nil if Europeand East Asia, if the Mediterranean, theBlack Sea, the China Sea, the YellowSea, and the Sea of Japan are linked bydirect communications.

any political forces of its own, and thatuntil 1941 no serious rival appeared fromoutside, enabled the British, with thisastonishingly small number, to turn thethird largest ocean in the world, as wellas the regions surrounding it with 6.8million square miles and 434 millioninhabitants, into their own lake.

In view of the pressure exerted onBritish supremacy in the Indian Ocean-from outside by the Axis and from insideby revolutionary nationalism-the 1088 ofthe Indian sea route lies within the boundsof possibility.

The creation of an Axis sea route wouldenable the war economies of East Asiaand Greater Europe to supplement eachother extensively. The list of goodswhich East Asia would get from Europeand, vice versa, which Europe would getfrom East Asia, is a very long one.

At the Pacific war counoil held atthe White House on September I, theBritish Ambassador, Lord Halifax, ex-presaed anxiety that a sncceaafu1 oontaotbetween Japan and -Germany, if realized,would prove a great menace to the Allies.He urged the Allies to make all possiblepreparations for such a development.

•••

Bite is the capture of the Suez Canaland the destruction of the British position~n Perim in the Strait of Bab el Mandeband preferably of Aden. In the light ofhistory it can be assumed that, with thesepositions in the hands of the Axis, trafficoould be opened through the IndianOcean which would be less hazardousthan the war-time trans-Atlantic traffic~f the Allies and certainly far less danger-~us than the Anglo-American routesthrough the Arctic Ocean and the Mediter-ranean. Of the remaining bases, Karachi,Bombay, Ceylon, and Kilindini are prob-ably the most important. But, in viewof the weakness of the British fleet and-air force in the Indian Ocean, their oc-cupation would not seem absolutely neces-sary, especially as the possibility existsthat the awakening Indian and Arabiannationalism would, without outside aid,iIOOn drive the unwanted masters into theilea.

2: 434

On account of the fact that hitherto ithas always only been one power at atime which possessed naval supremacy inthe Indian Ocean, this supremacy hasproved easier to gain than in any otheree&. The Arabs felt 80 secure in theIndian Ocean that the attack by thePortuguese took them by surprise anddisposed of th6ID within a few years.The Portuguese, for their part, believedto have made the Indian Ocean their ownlake by carefully keeping its geographyeeoret. When the English and the Dutchfound their way into the ocean in spiteof this, the Portuguese were fated to losetheir significance within a short time.Today it appears u if Great Britain werein a similar position.

Just as was the case with the Portu-guese, England's weakness is to be foundin the faot that she is an outside powerwithout being properly anchored in themillions of people living on the shores of"the Indian Ocean. There are far less thantwo million Anglo-Saxon Britons living~tween Capetown, Karachi, Calcutta, andFremantle. Only the fact that the IndiantOcean area has hitherto not developed

THE DUb CENTURY

JaptJ" TiMu baa rightly said: "It is be-0&U88 the Indian Ocean is expoeed to themenaoe of the Japeneee Navy thatAmerica choee the land route for thetransportation of her troops to Egypt."

On the other hand. the establishmentof a southern sea connection would mr-

tber increaee the oonfidenoe of the Axis.The OClGtact betwem the mighty oammtaof power now fighting in isoIatiem, em theODe side in Asia and on the otherin Europe. againat their foes. wouldclearly indicate to the two Gtw8-nJUfM that they are united. not only byideals. but in reality.

37-Volume3_Page_0137-Volume3_Page_0237-Volume3_Page_0337-Volume3_Page_0437-Volume3_Page_0537-Volume3_Page_0637-Volume3_Page_0737-Volume3_Page_0837-Volume3_Page_0937-Volume3_Page_1037-Volume3_Page_11