the state of britain · source: ipsos mori political monitor/global trends survey a society which...

© Ipsos | Global Trends Presentation | January 2020 | Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI & Visiting Professor, Kings College London

[email protected]

The State of Britain

Macro Forces – known knowns

Dynamic populations Growing inequality and

opportunityGeopolitical Tensions

The Fragile Planet Technology Tipping

PointsData World

200 questions map in 36 Values…

Conserve

Change

Open

Closed

Nomadic Aspirations

Faith in Capitalism

Traditional Gender Roles

Beyond Binary

Technophilia

Brand Worship

Data Sharing

Climate Emergency

Pro-Globalism

Conscious Eating

Review-based Consumption

Left Behind

Populist Revolution

Early Adoption

Materialism & Achievement

Fear Of The Future

Individualism

Overwhelmed

Discerning Consumption

Aspiring to Health

Data Apathy

Technophobia

Wealth Redistribution

Nostalgia

Traditional Nationalism

Data Anxiety

Real World Shopping

Local Shopping

Xenophilia

Instashopping

Immortality Through Science

Regulate Big Tech

Trust In Medicine

Tired Of Environmentalism

Health Self-Reliance

Hedonism

RadicalOptimistic

Traditional Pessimistic

Positive about technology,

growth and capitalismRadical change

Left behind, nostalgic and

worried about the future

Traditional values and

nationalism

4Ipsos MORI Issues Index | Public

What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home

Growing concerns

0

25

50

75

Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020

WHAT DO YOU SEE AS THE MOST/OTHER IMPORTANT ISSUES FACING

BRITAIN TODAY?

TOP MENTIONS %

Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

NHS

POLLUTION/ENVIRONMENT

POVERTY/INEQUALITY

CRIME/LAW & ORDER

HOUSING

EU/EUROPE/BREXIT


What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home

Growing concerns – beneath the headlines

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020

WHAT DO YOU SEE AS THE MOST/OTHER IMPORTANT ISSUES FACING

BRITAIN TODAY?

TOP MENTIONS %

Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

POLLUTION/ENVIRONMENT

POVERTY/INEQUALITY

CRIME/LAW & ORDER

HOUSING

LACK OF FAITH IN GOV/POLITICS


Prompted concerns

are different….

Looking ahead to the

General Election, which, if

any, issues do you think will

be very important to you in

helping you decide which

party to vote for?

Base: 1,140 Online British adults 18+, 15-18 November 2019

6

20%

21%

21%

22%

22%

23%

23%

27%

28%

30%

30%

30%

32%

32%

56%

60%

Benefits

Pensions

Taxation

Inflation/rising cost of living

Lack of faith in politicians/parties/government

Poverty/Inequality

Housing

Education/ schools

Public services generally

Environment/ climate change

Immigration

Managing the economy

Crime and anti-social behaviour

Care for older and disabled people

Europe/ EU/Brexit

Healthcare/ NHS/ hospitals

Source: Ipsos MORI General Election 2019 Campaign Tracker

© Ipsos | Coronavirus Results Wave 2

HOW LONG TILL BRITAIN IS LIKE JAPAN….

Unconcerned Distant Threat Concerned hopeful Fearful

AUSTRALIA 23% 39% 22% 16%

CANADA 29% 46% 12% 12%

FRANCE 29% 42% 12% 17%

GERMANY 38% 28% 12% 21%

ITALY 24% 28% 29% 20%

JAPAN 18% 8% 19% 55%

RUSSIA 37% 24% 26% 14%

UNITED KINGDOM 38% 28% 19% 16%

UNITED STATES 30% 35% 19% 16%

Note that India is not included in the segmentation due to the variance in methodology.

© Ipsos | Coronavirus Results Wave 2

15% EXPECT A PERSONAL FINANCIAL IMPACT

8%3% 1% 2%

38%

5% 7% 5% 3%7%

18%

14%

7%9%

27%

14%

31%

17%

12%

15%

31%

29%

26% 19%

6%

35%

35%

30%

27%

27%

22%

23%

28%30%

21%

15%28%

22%

15%

23%29% 32%

17%

16%

4%

24% 20% 21%

Australia Canada France Germany India Italy Japan Russia UK US

Do you agree or disagree with

the following: The coronavirus

will have a financial impact on

me and my family.

Somewhat agree

Neither agree or disagree

Somewhat disagree

Strongly disagree

Strongly agree

8 –

9

HYSTERESIS

10Deloitte State of the State 2019 | September 2019 | Version 1 | Internal Use Only

Base: c.1360 UK adults

The loss of the future…

To what extent, if at

all, do you feel that

today’s youth will

have had a better or

worse life than their

parents, or will it be

about the same?

Q30%

29%

23%

43%

45%

46%

35%

12%

Better Worse

August 2019

June 2017

November 2011

April 2003

11Deloitte State of the State 2019 | September 2019 | Version 1 | Internal Use Only

Survey on behalf of Deloitte LLP for State of the State 2019


Majority favour more spending – even with tax rises

People have different

views about whether

it is more important

to reduce taxes or

keep up government

spending. How about

you? Which of these

statements comes

closest to your own

view?

Q

76%

61%

56%

46%

59%

63%62%

58%

14%

20%23%

33%27%

26%27% 26%

7%

12% 15%18%

12%10% 9%

13%

3%7% 6%

2% 3% 2% 2%3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Government services should be extended, even if it means some increases to taxes

Things should be left as they are

Taxes should be cut, even if it means some reduction in government services

Don't know

A shift to a more protective state?

57

46

29

482006

2019

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor/Global Trends survey

A society which emphasises the

social and collective

provision of

welfare

A society where individuals are encouraged to look

after themselves

People have different views about the ideal society. For each of these statements, please tell me which one comes closest to your ideal.

Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ each wave

Which of the following statements comes closest to your ideal?

+ political correctness, death penalty, gay marriage

I would like to live in a society which emphasises the social and collective provision of welfare

l would like to live in a society where the individual is encouraged to look after him or herself74%

60%

32%

23%

9%

11%

13%

13%

17%

30%

54%

64%Conservative

Leave

Conservative

Remain

Labour

Leave

Labour

Remain

But still divided…..

Strong support for “levelling up”

“The British economy needs to be rebalanced so that it is not so

dominated by London and

the South East”

Source: Ipsos MORI

82% agree

% disagree

12

Infrastructure matters

2

76

“Investing in infrastructure is vital to

GB’s future economic growth”

Source: Ipsos MORI

% agree

% disagree


“We are heading for environmental disaster unless we change our habits quickly”

80%

82% 80% 79%

66%

12% 13% 14%22%

The climate change we are currently seeingis largely the result of human activity

We are heading for environmental disasterunless we change our habits quickly

Companies do not pay enough attention tothe environment

It is important that people in my countryswitch to electric motors in cars

Agree

Disagree

Widespread agreement on the basics

Climate emergency: key statements

But still some reservations

A perception of mixed

messaging from scientific

elites forms the bedrock

of the tired of

environmentalism value

This value remains static

across age groups

Agree47%

2nd Qtr

Disagree42%

“Even the scientists don’t really know what they

are talking about on environmental issues”


Theoretical demands for government to do something on environment

I’d now like you to think

about the different ways

government can be

involved in encouraging

people to protect the

environment.

For each of the

following, do you think

government should do

more, less, is doing the

right amount, or should

not do it at all?

Q

58%

65%

66%

69%

69%

24%

21%

22%

20%

20%

8%

5%

5%

4%

5%

7%

5%

5%

4%

3%

Should do more of this Doing about the right amount of this Should do less of this Should not do this at all Don't know

Providing information to people on how to live in a

more environmentally-friendly way

Encouraging people to live in a more environmentally

friendly way, for example by making environmentally-

friendly options (such as taking public transport or

insulating homes) less expensive

Having laws to make companies act in a more

environmentally-friendly way (e.g. by setting limits

on their energy use)

Taxing environmentally-unfriendly products to make

them more expensive (such as things that can’t be

recycled)

Banning environmentally-unfriendly products (such

as things that can’t be recycled)


“It is inevitable that we will all lose some privacy in the future because

of what new technology can do”2

0

‒

77%http://getwallpapers.com/collect

ion/doctor-wallpapers

“It is always best to follow the

doctor’s advice”

“Social media companies have too much

power”

75%

http://getwallpapers.com/collection/doctor-wallpapers

Some fears of technology are on the rise

Some questions within

the “technophobia value”

rising as tech spreads

globally

41%

48% 50% 52%56%

60%

2013 2016 2019 2013 2016 2019

I fear that technical progress is destroying

our lives

Technology means that I find it harder to

switch off

+9%+8%

But apathy has been growing

Between 2013 and 2019

all factors within this

value have increased

63%66%

68%

62%64%

70%72% 73%

76%72% 72%

78%

2013 2016 2019 2013 2016 2019 2013 2016 2019 2013 2016 2019

I don’t know what my

rights are over the way

companies handle my

personal information

I don’t know what

personal information

companies hold about

me

I often don’t bother fully

reading terms and

conditions on a website

before accepting them

It is inevitable that we will

all lose some privacy in

the future because of

what new technology can

do

23

Plenty of

challenges…but….

24Project Name | Month Year | Classification

% trust to tell the truth:

Source: Ipsos MORI Veracity Index

RISING TRUST IN EXPERTS

1983 2018

Doctors

Teachers

Professors

Scientists

The police

Clergy/priests

Civil servants

Trade union officials

Bankers

Journalists

92%

89%

86%

85%

26%

41%

45%

62%

62%

76%

85% 82% 79%

18% 19% 25%

61%

70%

63%

29%


% most people can be trusted (World Values Survey); % People can usually/almost always be trusted (British Social Attitudes;% 7-10 Most people can be trusted (European Social Survey)

IN UK SOCIAL TRUST IS RISING

Spain

Sweden

Britain

Netherlands

Germany

France

52%

60%

47%

54%

42%

52%

33%

45%

29%

19% 17% 18%

1981 2017

Base: All adults aged 16-75 in Great Britain (1,100), adults aged 16-75 who voted

Remain in 2016 EU Referendum (465), voted Leave (432), 5-9 April 2019.

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Your local area

Your nearest city

England/Scotland/Wales

Great Britain

Europe

The Commonwealth

The Western World

The Global Community

Among all Leave voters Remain voters

45%41% 42%

31%22% 25%

60% 70%62%

60%58%57%

56%10% 32%

13% 14%

20%13% 16%

26%7% 15%

WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING, IF ANY, DO YOU IDENTIFY WITH? PLEASE SELECT AS MANY AS RELEVANT.

More unites us than divides us – not “anywhere” versus

“somewhere”


For each of the following media and institutions, please tell me if you tend to trust it or tend not to trust it?

Source: Eurobarometer, 29 country average

TRUST IN THE WRITTEN PRESS VS

TRUST IN INTERNET IN EUROPE

2006 2018

+5%

+7% The

written

press

The

internet

+3%

-13%

0%

2012

Fake news?

#PerilsofPerception

What Italians thought when they voted

How many

immigrants?

How many

unemployed?

How many people

aged 65+?

Perception: 30%

Real (2014): 7%

2018: 9%

Perception : 49%

Real (2014): 12%

2018: 11%

Perception : 48%

Real (2014): 21%

2018: 22%

But much more to our errors than

numerical limitations

– one of key concepts:

‘Emotional Innumeracy’…

Total

24 2

23 2

USA

Britain

+21

+31

+22

+18

too high

What percentage of

women and girls aged 15

to 19 in [Country] do you

think give birth each year?

% point differencetoo low

Please see http://perils.ipsos.com/ for full details of all sources.

Huge

overestimates of

teenage births…

19

Country

1.4

Guess Actual

37 6Argentina

http://perils.ipsos.com/

Why? Vivid,

emotional

stories we

remember…

#PerilsofPerception

Guarantee you will never

see a headline

like this…

We also tend to think things are

getting worse –

‘rosy retrospection’…

#PerilsofPerception

We edit out the bad from past…

mild

disappointment

when back…

But memory

grows fonder longer

away we get…

…from excited

anticipation

reality of

minor niggles

while there,

So will politicians look at the

evidence?

Attitudes to evidence among public and MPs | November 2019 | Version 1 | Internal Use Only37

Are politicians open to evidence?

Base: 86 MPs

Fieldwork dates: 3 June-2 August 2019

Thinking about the use of evidence when deciding what should be done, how would you rate

your fellow MPs on the following?

3%

7%

35%

49%

27%

17%

31%

20%

5%

6%Being open

to evidence

Interpreting

evidence

correctly

Fairly goodVery good Fairly poor Very poorNeither good nor poor Good Poor

56%

38% 35%

26%


What do politicians say about themselves interpreting the evidence?

Source: Ipsos MORI summer 2019 MPs survey


Most MPs don't know the

difference between cause

and correlation. They look

for evidence to buttress

their own opinion rather

than to actually change

their mind. Mind you I am

guilty of that too.

I don't see MPs being

even taken through the

basics of understanding

trials and statistics. There

is a real lack of very basic

knowledge, which means

that MPs are easily

swayed by exceptionally

poor quality evidence.

We are pushed very

quickly into definitive and

absolute positions … And

we don't take time to

consider the broadest

range of evidence

available at that moment,

to reach a more

considered position.


When the facts don’t fit….

Base: 86 MPs


In your opinion, what prevents MPs from making better use of evidence?

41%

36%

32%

23%

20%

19%

16%

4%

Lack of time to sift through evidence

When evidence conflicts with their party policy

When evidence conflicts with their own principles

Lack of knowledge about how to identify good-quality evidence

Evidence is presented in a way that is difficult to understand

When evidence conflicts with their constituents' views

Lack of trusted evidence sources

Lack of good-quality evidence to use


What do politicians really want to help them use evidence better?

Source: Ipsos MORI summer 2019 MPs survey


Present information that

is simple to understand.

The best way to do that is

to relate evidence to case

studies or actual events.

That's a really good way

of demonstrating it.

Everything given to us

has to be sharper and

punchier and made

relevant … Stop sending

big briefing documents.

It's a waste!

We are bombarded with

information but a lot of it

is from lobby groups and

pressure groups with

their own particular angle

… What you want is

something authoritative

and impartial.

In conclusion….

Things are mostly not as bad as we think…

But we might have a problem in communicating it…


Ipsos Global Trends 2020

44 © Ipsos | Global Trends Presentation | January 2020 | Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

www.ipsosglobaltrends.com

the state of britain · source: ipsos mori political monitor/global trends survey a society which...

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