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CLSA U® Executive Education
Spring 2011
The state of OLEDTechnology markets and participants
Barry E YoungOLED Association
Course instructorBarry Young is vice president of Young Market Research (YMR) and a primary-lighting analyst. He also serves as managing director of the OLED Association, where he solves industry-wide issues, such as the development of standards for the OLED display and lighting industries. He is also working with a group of OLED suppliers to produce the first US-based national laboratory for OLED lighting. A long-time principal, senior advisor and consultant to DisplaySearch, Young is one of the leading authorities on OLEDs and flexible displays, and has authored DisplaySearch’s OLED, flexible-display, small/medium-display and technology reports. He has visited and consulted most of the OLED manufacturers worldwide, published in technical-display journals and spoken across the globe on the display industry. Before joining DisplaySearch, Young was CEO and president of OWL Displays, where he co-developed innovative driver technology for amorphous silicon (a-Si) and polysilicon (p-Si) TFT LCDs, and was awarded key patents for driving low-temperature polysilicon TFT LCDs. Before OWL, he was vice president and general manager of Tandem’s integrity system division. He has also served as managing partner at Booz Allen & Hamilton, executive vice president at Wells Fargo Bank, senior vice president at Citibank and president and CEO of Lexar, an early developer of an all-digital PBX.
Course overviewOLED technology was first commercialised for displays in 1999, but it took until late 2007 for it to reach mass production in the active matrix mode. Now OLEDs are challenging LCD technology in the handheld market and will soon target the largest markets for flat panels - TVs and notebooks. OLED technology offers significant performance improvements over LCD and plasma technology, eg, faster response time, wider viewing angles, higher contrast, improved colour and lower power consumption.
This presentation addresses the challenges facing OLEDs to expand their market, what the leaders are doing, when they will gain a formidable position and how the manufacturers can exploit the existing TFT-LCD infrastructure. Another group of manufacturers are developing solid-state lighting (SSL) applications, which promise to improve lighting efficiency, increase lifetime and reposition a significant portion of the US$100bn lighting industry. Osram, Philips and Lumiotec have introduced OLED SSL products, while Panasonic, GE, Konica Minolta, Mitsubishi and Samsung are at the development phase. The session also examines the challenges and opportunities facing the manufacturers.
Introduction
Any comments? Please contact Grace Hung at [email protected]
CLSA U® executive education
2CLSA U® logo, CLSA U® (word mark) and CLSA University are registered trademarks of CLSA in the USA and elsewhere.
3
Promote the development and commercialisation of OLED products
Foster the development and use of OLED-specific performance standards
Serve as a source of OLED industry information for the media and financial community
OLED Association
4
Overview
OLED technology
Semiconductor basics
Displays/lighting
Performance
Manufacturing
OLED lighting
Summary
5
OLED technology
6
Semiconductor basics - Inorganic LEDs
e-
h+
LightFermi level
Conductor
electrons
holes
Band gap
Conduction band
Valence band
Vacuum level
Ele
ctro
n e
nerg
y
7
Semiconductor basics - OLEDs
e-
h+
Light
LUMO level (lowest unoccupied molecular orbital)
HOMO level (highest occupiedmolecular orbital)
Vacuum level
Ele
ctro
n e
nerg
y
ExcitonLocalised on one molecule
8
Excitons
Spin of the LUMO electron does not pair with the spin of the HOMO electron
Can only recombine to emit light in a phosphorescent material (slow)
Spin of the LUMO electron can pair with the spin of the HOMO electron
Can recombine to emit light in any material (fast)
Triplet Singlet
Spin statistics suggest a 3:1 ratio of triplets:singlets -not necessarily the case for all materials
Two types of excitons are possible
9
Key points
HOMO level - Conduction band
LUMO level - Valence band
Electrons and holes recombine forming either a triplet or singlet exciton
Singlets decay to emit light in fluorescent and phosphorescent materials
Triplets can only decay to emit light in phosphorescent material
Non-radiative (thermal) decay is present in any material
10
OLED performance
11
OLED display stack
12
Power consumption comparisons
TFT LCD
AMOLED
100%
160%
TFT LCD
AMOLED
100%
15%
TFT LCD
AMOLED
100%
70%
White backgroundWhite background MovieMovieStill ImageStill Image
Source: LG Display
13
OLED material performance progress
Source: LG Display
14
Colour reproduction
AMOLED maintains 100% of NTSC colourgamut at all gray levels
TFT LCD - 75% at 100% saturation; 11% at 10% saturation
AMOLED - 100% at all levels
Source: Samsung (SMD)
15
Perceived brightness
Perceptual contrast-length comparison of LCDs and AMOLEDs expressed on CIECAM02 colour space
The luminance values of LCDs and AMOLEDs are 256.3 and 189.9cd/m2. Note: only 110.9 cd/m2 is required for AMOLEDs to achieve the same perceptual contrast length as LCDs
Source: Samsung (SMD)
16
3D performance
Stereoscopic (requires glasses) 3D TV is being pushed as the next display technology and is expected to increase TV margins
There is a plethora of content under development:
70 films scheduled for production
3D channels planned (ESPN)
Best 3D implementations have the fastest response time
OLED response times are faster than either LCDs or PDPs
OLED may have to produce 3D TV to justify the wider margins
Source: Samsung (SMD)
17
Lighting technology performance
Source: YMR
2013-15 timeframe
TFT LCD
Units AMOLED CCFL LED Edge LED Full Difference
Luminance cd/m2 Same None
Brightness cd/m2 OLED ~1.5x brighter Power
Contrast ratio (CR) ¥ 1000:1 5000:1 6M:1 Dark images
Ambient contrast ratio @ 125 lux ~1000:1 >2,000:1 >2,000:1 >2,000:1 High lux
Black levels cd/m2 0.001 0.8 0.1 0.001 Dark images
Viewing angles CR 100% 20:1 3D
Response time ms 0.001 5 3 3 Fast moving
Gray scale performance All Gray Scales Poor lower gray scales Movies
Frame rate Hz >240 None
42" power consumption W 15 ~120 ~80 ~60 15
Lifetime hrs to 1/2 luminance
50k to 100k ~60k ~70k ~70k Initial LCD
Differential ageing Yes None Strength
Image sticking Some Minor Strength
Form factor mm 1 5 3 5 Thinner
18
White pixel progress
Source: Universal Display
140
120
100
80
60
20
40
0
1 10 100 1000 10000
LT70 @ 1,000cd/m²
lm/
W
19
Display capacity
20
A word about substrate sizes
Gen 112007 730x920
2011
21
Revenue by technology/application
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(US$m)PMOLED AMOLED S/M AMOLED TV
Source: YMR
22
Display revenue history & forecast
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(US$m)
(20)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180(Growth %)PMOLED AMOLED S/M
AMOLED TV YoY growth
PMOLED sub-displays/MP3
AMOLED smartphone/tablets
AMOLED TVs
Source: YMR
23
OLED display capacity
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(‘000m²)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120(Growth %)Gen 8Gen 5.5 fGen 5.5Gen 4.5Gen 3.5Gen 2YoY growth (RHS)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
('000m²)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120(Growth %)
China
Japan
AUO
SMD
LGD
YoY growth (RHS)
Source: YMR
24
AMOLED shipment/revenue forecast
Source: YMR
25
Manufacturing
Thin film (array)Thin film (array)
OLED deposition & patterningOLED deposition & patterning
Electronics & testingElectronics & testing
26
AMOLED pixel architecture
Technical status of OLED backplanes
LTPS with excimer lasers similar to LTPS LCDs, but OLEDs require a “two TFT, one capacitor”design, while LCDs use one TFT and one capacitor
Compensation, four to five TFTs are added to compensate for non-uniformity
Major difference is that the second TFT (Dr.) has a duty cycle of more than 90%
a-Si used by most LCDs is susceptible to Vthchanges as it heats up and has not been used to drive AMOLEDs, although there are compensation approaches that are being tested
The capital expense for LTPS used in the array process is c.2x the capital cost of a-Si, the total average cycle time (TACT) is longer and the yields are lower
Vdata
CS
VDD
Sel
Sw.Dr.
OLED
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Backplanes
Excimer laser size is currently limited to 4th gen with a beam length of c.450 x 4 mm. Companies such as JSW and TCZ are developing beam lengths as long as c.800mm to support 6th gen fabs
Primary alternatives to LTPS include:
a-Si with compensation
Super grain silicon (SGS)
Solid phase crystallisation (SPC)
Oxide TFTs
μC TFTs
cSi TFTs
28
Making finely patterned sub-pixels with small molecule material requires the use of vacuum thermal evaporation using a fine metal mask, where the substrate and mask are held in a horizontal position
Size limits are defined by the sagging of the mask
To achieve more than 200ppi, AMOLEDs utilise Pentile technology, which reduces the pixel size from 3 sub-pixels to 2 sub-pixels/pixel. To scale beyond ½ 4th gen, VTE must be changed from positioning the substrate horizontally to holding vertically as implemented by Tokki, Ulvac, Sunic and AMAT
New approaches include the use of CNT by Unidym and nanowires by Cambrios
New techniques required to scale the process
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Patterning options
Alternative approaches include:
Polymers and small molecule in solution which can be printed
Laser induced thermal imaging (LITI) as developed by 3M and SMD
Eliminating patterning by using white material with a colour filter
The most likely for the gen 5.5 is vertically held substrates
Beyond gen 5.5 some form of printing will be required
Ink Jet - Panasonic, Epson
Slot - DuPont
Roll-to-roll process - VTT, Fraunhofer
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OLED lighting
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OLED displays vs lighting
Category Units Display Lighting
Lifetime hrs 100K to L50 @ 1000 cd/m2 50k to L70 @ 10,000 lm/m2
Efficacy lm/W 30 100
Patterning Subpixel Large pixels
Blue NTSC standard <NTSC
Active matrix p-Si Not required
Light enhancement Microcavity Light extraction layer
Distribution grid Not Required Required
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OLED lighting stack
33
Performance characteristics & roadmap
Material
Red
Green
Blue
OLED architectures
Single stack
Tandem stack
Light extraction layer
Flexible backplanes
34
OLED market participants
Many companies developing prototypes and pilot lines, including
Philips - small molecule - fluorescent/phosphorescent
Osram Opto - small molecule - fluorescent/phosphorescent
GE - solution-based phosphorescent, R-T-R
Panasonic - small molecule - fluorescent/phosphorescent
Konica Minolta - solution-based phosphorescent, R-T-R
Lumiotec - small molecule - fluorescent/phosphorescent
Zumtobel/Thorne Lighting/Ledon/Fraunhofer - Polymer-based
Mitsubishi/Pioneer - small molecule - fuorescent/phosphorescent
Kaneka - small molecule
AUO - small molecule - phosphorescent
Moser Baer Technology - small molecule - phosphorescent
Samsung - small molecule - phosphorescent, 2nd gen fab
LG Display - small molecule - phosphorescent
ModisTech - polymer, R-T-R
NEC Lighting - small molecule - fluorescent/phosphorescent
Visonox - small molecule - phosphorescent
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OLED lighting
Primary market
Currently, OLED lighting is limited to demonstration programmes and decorative/architectural lighting
Future - three to five years away
Fluorescent luminairereplacements
Integrated into acoustic ceiling tiles
Compete with LEDs
Source: Osram Opto Source: Lumiotec
Source: Acuity Brands Source: General Electric
Source: Lumiotec
Source: Philips
36
Sample demonstrators
Mitsubishi panel features:
Size: 14cm x 14cm
Efficiency (typical): 28 lm/w
Types of materials: small molecular OLED (as emitter)
Types of lighting: Planar thin OLED Lighting, partially using solution OLED
Color temperature tunable (2700K-6500K), and RGB colour tunable
Lifetime(LT70, typical): 8000 hours
CRI (typical): 80 (R9=66)
OLED lighting panels will use printable OLED as under layer (=hole injection layer)
Schedule
Samples - 2010
MP - 2011
Source: Mitsubishi
37
Sample demonstrators (continued)
Osram panel features:
Size: 88mm diameter x 2.1mm
Efficiency (typical): 23 lm/w
Types of materials: small molecular OLED (as emitter)
Color temperature tunable (2580K-3320K), and RGB colour tunable
Luminance - 1,000 cd/m2 @ 186 mA
Lifetime(LT70 typical): 8000 hours
CRI (typical): 75
Schedule - Shipping
Source: Osram
38
Sample demonstrators (continued)
Lumiotec panel features:
Size: 14.5cm diameter x 14.5cm x 2.3mm
Efficiency (typical): c.25 lm/W
Types of materials: small molecular OLED (as emitter)
Luminance - 4,000 cd/m2
Lifetime(LT50 typical): c.4,000 hours at 4,000 cd/m2
CRI (typical): 80
Schedule - Shipping
Source: Lumiotec
39
Sample demonstrators (continued)
Philips panel features:
Size: 11.9cm diameter x 3.7cm x 2.3mm
Efficiency (typical): c.15 lm/W
Types of materials: small molecular OLED (as emitter)
Color temperature tunable (3,200 K), and RGB colour tunable
Luminance - 3,000 cd/m2
Lifetime(LT50 typical): c.10,000 hours @ 1,000 cd/m2
CRI (typical): 80
Schedule - 4Q10
Source: Philips
40
Sample prototypes
Konica Minolta panel features:
Size: 15.0cm diameter x 15.0cm x 1.5mm
Efficiency (typical): c.64 lm/W
Types of materials: phosphorescent OLED (as emitter)
Luminance - 1,000 cd/m2
Lifetime(LT50 typical): c.10,000 hours @ 1,000 cd/m2
CRI (typical): NA
Schedule - 2011
Source: Konica Minolta
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Spec summary
¹ 1,000 cd/m2
Spec Units Mitsubishi Osram Lumiotec PhilipsKonica Minolta
Efficacy lm/W 28 23 25 15 64Power W 2.2 3.0 10.6 2.8 1.1Color Temperature °K 2,700-6,500
2,580-3,320 na 3,200 na
CRI 1-100 80 75 80 80 na
Lifetimehrs to
L70 8,000 8,000 4,000 10,000¹ 10,000
Luminance cd/m2 1,000 1,000 4,000 3,000 1,000Lumens lumens 62 69 264 41 71Size cmxcm 14 8.8 14.5 11.9 15
14 14.5 3.7 15
Average Target31 1004 2-4
2,700-3,50079 ~80
5,000 50,000
22503,000-4,000
109 500-1,000
42
Cost forecast
6x6” OLED panel costs dependent on process, volume and manufacturing maturity
Panels/mo: 5k 20k 40k 100k 600k
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2012 2013 2014 2015 2015
(US$/km)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000(US$/m²)Manuf. Cost (6" panel)
$/km
$/m² (RHS)
Source: YMR
43
6x6” OLED panel cost distribution
At 100k/month, the key cost elements are depreciation, labour and the substrate
Source: YMR
44
OLED performance forecast
Lifetime (L70) 30,000 to 50,000 hours
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
lm/m²lm/W
lm/W
lm/m2
Source: YMR
45
OLED lighting projection
Fab size: 730 x 920mm 45 6” panels/substrate
2012 2013 2014 2015Substrates (000) 180 360 720 1080Utilisation 60% 70% 80% 85%Yield 50% 75% 80% 85%Units shipped (m) 3 9 22 37
LEDs/Lamp 29 26 23 20Luminaries (m) 7 9 9 11Lamps m) 98 126 327 666Total (m) 105 135 336 677Total LED (m) 3045 3510 7728 13540OLED share (per fab) 2% 7% 7% 6%OLED fabs 2 4 6 9Total OLED share 5% 27% 39% 50%
Source: YMR
46
SSL/fluorescent replacements
OLED fabs 2 4 6 9Source: YMR
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2012 2013 2014 2015
SSL(m)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100 Share (%)SSL (LHS) LED Share OLED Share
47
Summary
48
Small molecule/LTPS
SMD Gen 4 with c.25k substrates/month Doubling capacity in 2010
LG Display Gen 2 with c.7.5k substrates/month Adding Gen 4 with 15k
substrates/month in 2010
Sony - Gen 3 partial use
Innolux (Toppoly) - 2-Gen 3s partial use - exiting
AUO Gen 3 pilot Gen 3.5 production in 2011 Gen 4.5 production in 2012
Canon - prototyping only
Polymer/LTPS Panasonic - Gen 2 prototyping
Sumitomo - Gen 2 prototyping
Casio - Gen 2 prototyping
Status
49
Performance
Comparing performance: AMOLEDs vs TFT LCDs
OLED performance will be a differentiator for high-end TVs; especially in 3D, sports and movies because of the viewing angle, the fast response time, and gray scale performance
OLED TVs are likely to compete with full LED backlighting and 3D LCDs
OLED panels will use c.½ the power of LED backlit panels, but the same for the TV components, so the TV difference will be 25% to 30%
OLEDs recreate the lower gray levels better than LCDs, which is a differentiator in video, where the average colour saturation is c.20%
Longer-term AMOLED TVs cost may be less than LCDs and cause most manufacturers to switch technologies
OLEDs will be challenged to compete in bright ambient conditions
Differentiated ageing could be a factor unless material lifetimes improve by at least 2x
The issue of image burn-in, which has not been an issue for smartphones, may require attention due when news tickers are considered
50
AMOLED capacity
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
('000m²)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120Growth (%)Gen 2 Gen 3.5
Gen 4.5 Gen 5.5
Gen 5.5 f Gen 8
YoY Growth
Source: YMR
51
Companies
Material
Universal Display R G Dopant
DS Hi Metal HTL/HIL
Novaled HTL/HIL
Jeil Textile, HTL/HIL, ETL
LG Chemical, ETL
DoSan-CS, Green Host
Dow Chemical Red Host
Sun Fine Chemicals, Blue Host and Dopant
Novaled, HTL/HIL; ETL/EIL
Hodogaya, Blue Host/Dopant
Encapsulation ALD - Synos
Laser Crystallization TCZ, a Cymer Company
LITI
N-Light
AP systems
Deposition/Patterning
VTE
AMD
Tokki
ULVAC
SNU Precision
YAS
SFA Engineering
Printing DuPont - Dai Nippon Print IJP - Epson, Panasonic
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Notes
Notes
CLSA U® is an ongoing executive education programmedesigned to bring you firsthand information. Draw your own conclusions and make more informed investment decisions - all in a conducive learning environment reminiscent of university days.
Contact: Grace Hung at [email protected]
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Indonesia PT CLSA Indonesia WISMA GKBI Suite 901 Jl Jendral Sudirman No.28 Jakarta 10210 Tel: (62) 21 2554 8888 Fax: (62) 21 574 6920
Singapore CLSA Singapore Pte Ltd 80 Raffles Place, No.18-01 UOB Plaza 1 Singapore 048624 Tel: (65) 6416 7888 Fax: (65) 6533 8922
USA - Chicago Credit Agricole Securities (USA) Inc 227 W. Monroe Street Suite 3800 Chicago, IL 60606 Tel: (1) 312 278 3604
China - Shanghai CLSA Limited - Shanghai Rep Office Room 910, 9/F 100 Century Avenue Pudong New Area Shanghai 200120 Tel: (86) 21 2020 5888 Fax: (86) 21 2020 5666
Japan Credit Agricole Securities Asia BVTokyo Branch 15/F, Shiodome Sumitomo Building 1-9-2, Higashi-Shimbashi Minato-ku, Tokyo 105-0021 Tel: (81) 3 4580 5533 (General) (81) 3 4580 5171 (Trading)Fax: (81) 3 4580 5896
Taiwan CLSA Limited Taiwan Branch 27/F, 95 Tun Hwa South Road Section 2 Taipei Tel: (886) 2 2326 8188 Fax: (886) 2 2326 8166
USA - New York Credit Agricole Securities (USA) Inc 15/F, Credit Agricole Building1301 Avenue of The AmericasNew York 10019 Tel: (1) 212 408 5888 Fax: (1) 212 261 2502
China - Shenzhen CLSA Limited - Shenzhen Rep Office Room 3111, Shun Hing Square Di Wang Commercial Centre 5002 Shennan Road East Shenzhen 518008 Tel: (86) 755 8246 1755 Fax: (86) 755 8246 1754
Korea CLSA Securities Korea Ltd 15/F, Sean Building 116, 1-Ka, Shinmun-Ro Chongro-Ku Seoul, 110-061 Tel: (82) 2 397 8400 Fax: (82) 2 771 8583
Thailand CLSA Securities (Thailand) Ltd 16/F, M Thai Tower All Seasons Place 87 Wireless Road, Lumpini Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Tel: (66) 2 257 4600 Fax: (66) 2 253 0532
USA - San Francisco Credit Agricole Securities (USA) Inc Suite 850 50 California Street San Francisco, CA 94111 Tel: (1) 415 544 6100 Fax: (1) 415 434 6140
Hong Kong CLSA Limited 18/F, One Pacific Place 88 Queensway Hong Kong Tel: (852) 2600 8888 Fax: (852) 2868 0189
Malaysia CLSA Securities Malaysia Sdn Bhd Suite 20-01, Level 20 Menara Dion 27 Jalan Sultan Ismail 50250 Kuala Lumpur Tel: (60) 3 2056 7888 Fax: (60) 3 2056 7988
United Kingdom CLSA (UK) 12/F, Moor House 120 London Wall London EC2Y 5ET Tel: (44) 207 614 7000 Fax: (44) 207 614 7070
CLSA Sales Trading Team Australia (61) 2 8571 4201 China (Shanghai) (86) 21 2020 5810 Hong Kong (852) 2600 7003 India (91) 22 6622 5000 Indonesia (62) 21 573 9460 Japan (81) 3 4580 5169 Korea (82) 2 397 8512
Malaysia (60) 3 2056 7852 Philippines (63) 2 860 4030 Singapore (65) 6416 7878 Taiwan (886) 2 2326 8124 Thailand (66) 2 257 4611 UK (44) 207 614 7260 US (1) 212 408 5800
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© 2011 CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets ("CLSA"). Key to CLSA investment rankings: BUY = Expected to outperform the local market by >10%; O-PF = Expected to outperform the local market by 0-10%; U-PF = Expected to underperform the local market by 0-10%; SELL = Expected to underperform the local market by >10%. Performance is defined as 12-month total return (including dividends). 01/01/2011