the state of the tanker industry imsf singapore 17 april 2007 [email protected] manager...
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The State of the tanker industry IMSF Singapore 17 April 2007
Manager Research and Projects
The State of the tanker Industry
• High safety• Low pollution• Low age• High earnings – until now• Surplus of tonnage building up
Pollution rate 1000 ts spilt per bn tonne miles carried
Source: ITOPF/Fearnleys
10001000ts spiltts spilt
bn bn tonne-mtonne-m
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
1971-76 1977-82 1983-88 1989-94 1995-00 2001-06
-8,000
11,000
30,000
49,000
68,000
Accidental pollution
Tonne-miles
+97%
-52 %
+50 % -26%
-80%
Tanker accidents and trade
Source: ITOPF/Fearnleys
1000 ts spilt Bn tonne-miles trade
Ship name Year Pollut.ion
Torrey Canyon 67 119
Amoco Cadiz 78 223
Exxon Valdez 89 37
ABT Summer 91 260
Haven 91 144
Aegean Sea 92 74
Braer 93 85
Sea Empress 96 72
Erika 99 20
Prestige 02 63
Tasman Spirit 03 300
100
200
300
400
500
600 '000 Tonnes Trade in Tonne miles
Trade in Tonne-miles (Fearnleys)
Tanker incidents by cause 1978-1Q07
Number incidents
Source: Based on incidents reports from Informa
0
200
400
600
800
1000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
War
Hull & Machinery
Fire/Expl
Grounded
Coll/Contact
Misc.
Pollution - bars
Tanker incidents by cause 2006
Source: Based on incident reports from Informa
13%28%
9%
33%17%
Collision
Grounding
Fire/Explosion
Hull & machinery
Misc/unknown
Collision
Groundings
Hull & Machinery (32 engine, 3 hull related)
Misc.
F & E
Reported tanker incidents Jan-Dec 2006 -
total 265
Accidental pollution from tankerslargest accidents and age
Source: Informa/INTERTANKO
Number incidents Average age
0
220
440
660
880
1100
78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
0.0
3.2
6.4
9.6
12.8
16.0
Incidents
Age
Total losses, tankers and bulkers
Source: Clarkson
Number
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1819
88
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Tankers 47
Bulkers 155
TankerMarket
Oil price and VLCC freight rates
$ per day freight rate $ per barrel oil price
0
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
200,000
02/0
1/20
01
02/0
5/20
01
02/0
9/20
01
02/0
1/20
02
02/0
5/20
02
02/0
9/20
02
02/0
1/20
03
02/0
5/20
03
02/0
9/20
03
02/0
1/20
04
02/0
5/20
04
02/0
9/20
04
02/0
1/20
05
02/0
5/20
05
02/0
9/20
05
02/0
1/20
06
02/0
5/20
06
02/0
9/20
06
02/0
1/20
07
0
16
32
48
64
80Oil price, Brent Blend
VLCC rate, 250,000 dwt, AG - Japan
VLCC spot and break-even rates
$ per day freight rate
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007
Current VLCC price in any year, interest rate average LIBOR for period + 1.25% (7.1%) , docking costs $1-4 m per 5 year period, residual value $6m after 25 years. Based on NPV calculations
Break-even rates
Freight rates
VLCC break-even rates
$ per day freight rate
21,000
26,000
31,000
36,000
41,000
198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006
Break-even rates
Source: INTERTANKO
Oil price and freight rate
$/barrel
Deflated by the Deflated by the Consumer Price Consumer Price Index (USD)Index (USD)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80Nominell pris Arab Light
Reell pris Arab Light
Nominell frakt rate AG-Vest
Reell frakt rate AG-Vest
Source: INTERTANKO
Gasoline price at the pump
$ per litre
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
USA Japan Germany UK
Long haulfreight ratesMarketing
Oil price
Tax
Cost elements making up the gasoline price:
mbd
Source: IEA
World oil demand - mbd
65
70
75
80
851993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
litres
Source: BP Review
Oil consumption per capita
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
US Japan UK World FSU China Africa
mbd
Oil consumption if world populations consumed oil as Americans
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
World oil cons Oil cons. if all consumed as Americans
mbd
s
86 mbd 451 mbd
Seaborne oil trade and Middle East oil production
mbd
Source: Fearnleys/IEA
'000
bil tm
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
2,600
5,200
7,800
10,400
13,000
Tonne miles
Middle East Oil Production - mbd
Seaborne oil trade and tanker fleet
Source: Fearnleys/IEA
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Tonne-miles
Tonnes crude oil
Miles
Tanker fleet
Tanker productivity – tonne-miles/dwt
Source: Fearnleys/IEA
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 P07
Source: IEA
Sources of Asian oil imports
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Middle East Others America
Europe Africa
Middle East
Others
mbd
Source: IEA
Sources of European oil imports - mbd
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Europe
America
Europe
Middle East
Africa
FSU
OthersSource: IEA
mbd
Source: IEA
Sources of US oil imports - mbd
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
N America
Europe
M. East
Ven/Ecu
Africa
Others
Source: IEA
Increase in world oil demand in ME*, USA, China and ROW**
mbd
Source: IEASource: IEAFSU: +0.05FSU: +0.05Other Asia: +0.18Other Asia: +0.18L America: +0.09L America: +0.09Africa: +0.06Africa: +0.06
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.8
3.2
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
** Rest of world
*Middle East
USA
China
23% 95% 50% 35% 28% 21% 54% 28%
World oil supply - mbd
Source: IEA
mbd
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009
N America
S/C America
N Sea
Middle East
W Africa
Other Africa
Asia Pacific
Others
FSU
TankerSupply
Tanker contracting
$ bn$ bn m dwtm dwt
VLCC VLCC 13. 4 $ bn 13. 4 $ bnSuezmax: 5.9 ”Suezmax: 5.9 ”Aframax: 8.8 ”Aframax: 8.8 ”Panamax: 2.8 ”Panamax: 2.8 ”Handy: 22.9 ” (43%)Handy: 22.9 ” (43%) Source: INTERTANKO/Clarkson Shipyard MonitorSource: INTERTANKO/Clarkson Shipyard Monitor
0
11
22
33
44
55
0
17
34
51
68
85
Handy
Aframaxes
Suezmaxes
VLCCs
m dwt
Tanker fleet, orderbook and phase outtankers above 30,000 dwt
m dwtm dwt
79 m dwt 133 m dwt
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
SH - 23% Orders - 39% Fleet - 100%
VLCC
Suezmax
Aframax
Panamax
Handy
29%
42%
Phase out SH tankers above 30,000 dwt
m dwtm dwt
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Min phase out
Max Phase out
MARPOL phase out assumes SH tankers to trade after 2010 until the age of 25 years old, EU+ phase out assumes that SH tankers all are removed from the market by end 2010 (except DB or DS ones)
VLCCsmax phase out ,+ 4.5% trade increase, assume balanced marked end 2006
NumberNumber
Fleet: 142 m dwt 487 shipsOrderbook: 54 m dwt 177 ”Single hull: 42 m dwt 154 ”Average age: 9.4 years
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
-02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Newbuilding demand
Deliveries
Surplus
Max phase out
Suezmaxesmax phase out + 4.5% trade increase , assume balanced marked end 2006
m dwtm dwt
Fleet: 52 m dwtOrderbook: 20 m dwtSingle hull: 9 m dwtAverage age: 9.2 years
Surplus end 2007: 1.8 m dwt ” 2008: 2.6 m dwt ” 2009: 8.1 m dwt ” 2010: 3.7 m dwt
0
2
4
6
8
-02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Newbuilding demand
Deliveries
Surplus
Max phase out
Conversion to DH
Total 7. 2 m dwtTotal 7. 2 m dwt
Built 10-30 30-52 60-72 90-113 120-148 VLCCs Total
1970s 3 2 0 0 0 0 5
1980-84 8 36 9 1 0 0 54
1986-89 11 12 0 3 3 1 30
1990-98 2 9 1 18 2 2 34
Total 24 59 10 22 5 3 123
Conversion to FPSO/FSO/bulk carriers, heavy lift ….Conversion to FPSO/FSO/bulk carriers, heavy lift ….(1.9 m dwt in 2006, 1.2 m dwt so far 2007(1.9 m dwt in 2006, 1.2 m dwt so far 2007
Tanker deliveries, removals, min phase-out
m dwtm dwt
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Newbuilding tobalance by2015Min phase out
Demolition
Delveries
Surplustonnage
* Assuming all SH tankers are phased out by 2010 and 4.5% increase in demand as from 2007 - a surplus is building up - balance by 2015
Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out
m dwtm dwt
Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out
-57
-47
-37
-27
-17
-7
3
13
23
33
43
Newbuilding to balance
Max phase out
Removals
Deliveries
Surplus tonnage
Assumptions: 1.8 m dwt removed annually by conversions in addition to phase out, an overhang of 4.6 m dwt of obsolete ships scheduled to be phased out before 2006, assumed to be phased ut by 2009, trade assumed to increase by
4.5%.
Tanker fleet double-hull development
Source: INTERTANKO
%
6
22
5159
67 68 72 76 79 82 85
94
78
4941
33 32 28 24 21 18 15
0
20
40
60
80
100
1991
1997
End 02
End 03
End 04
End 05
End 06
End 07
End 08
End 09
End 10
SH/DB/DS
DH
% dwt share*:
* Assumes phase out according to regulations (rounded upwards, 25 years after 2010.
Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out
m dwtm dwt
0
92
184
276
368
460
0
1,040
2,080
3,120
4,160
5,200dwt
number
Conclusion
• Strong safety performance• Relatively strong demand development• Very strong fleet increase• Reduced earnings