The Steps to War: An Empirical Study by PAUL D. SENESE; JOHN A. VASQUEZReview by: LAWRENCE D. FREEDMANForeign Affairs, Vol. 88, No. 2 (March/April 2009), p. 145Published by: Council on Foreign RelationsStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/20699512 .

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Recent Books

Military, Scientific, and Technological

LAWRENCE D. FREEDMAN

Peace: A History of Movements and Ideas. by David cortright. Cambridge

University Press, 2008,392 pp. $90.00 (paper, $29.99).

Cortrights thorough and thoughtful discussion of the ideas and movements

that have associated themselves with

the word "peace" deserves a wide audi

ence. It covers a lot of ground without

appearing rushed and covers some in

teresting detail along the way on the

origins of key concepts, the roles of

religion and international law, and the

continuing struggle against charges of cowardice and a lack of patriotism. Cortright writes with a commitment to the cause but also sufficient detach ment to allow readers to make up their own minds about the issues being addressed. Peace movements have

suffered from, he acknowledges, "a

persistent na?vet?, a tendency toward

utopianism . . ., an inadequate grasp of

the unavoidable dilemmas of security, [and] an unwillingness to accept the inherent egoism of human communities."

Yet when "pacifism" is taken broadly to refer to all those working on the problem of how to prevent war and build peace, rather than just a pure moral stance, he

notes broad achievements. Many of the

commonplace ideas of international

security originated with groups that were considered in their time to be either

unpatriotic or hopelessly idealistic.

The Steps to War: An Empirical Study. by paul d. senese and john a.

vasquez. Princeton University Press,

2008,334 pp. $60.00 (paper, $26.95). This book opens poignantly with a

preface written by Vasquez following the funeral of his co-author, Senese.

This joint work was the culmination of a decades worth of collaboration

exploring the value of the "scientific"

approach to international affairs, of

which they have both been leading exponents. The strengths of that ap

proach, including its sharp focus, rigor, and sophistication, are fully on display. So, unfortunately, are its weaknesses: it

is forbidding to anybody outside its

methodological mindset, and although it may be systematic and statistical, it is not science. No reliable laws emerge from the work, just interesting proposi tions, few of which will appear to be

strikingly original to those who are not

dogmatic realists (the other intellectual tradition with which Vasquez and Senese

most engage). The authors argue that

wars are most likely to occur because

of territorial claims; that if these claims lead to regular disputes over a period of time, the states involved are apt to

end up in war; and that alliances make this more likely. They also note that these patterns were mostly in evidence

between 1816 and 1945, after which

things changed because of the Cold War and nuclear weapons?although

things may have reverted back to the

previous pattern after 1990. Within these broad periods, individual cases are

stripped of their context and nuance, and so much of the richness of international

history, from the impact of ideology to domestic politics, is lost.

FOREIGN A F FA 1RS? March /April 2009 [*45]

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